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Author Topic: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Mafia Wins  (Read 188064 times)

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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #825 on: July 21, 2013, 08:26:43 pm »

Hello........anyone?  Day ends in 14 hours.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #826 on: July 21, 2013, 08:27:08 pm »

Ash, I DON'T usually lurk and sheep :P I don't understand why you all are believing chairs. true, scum should try to out a PR. but claiming PR also guarrantees that you will be counterclaimed and lynched. chairs claimed when he shouldn't have if he is town, because there is still nobody stating intent to hammer. I would believe him more if there was someone willing to hammer him, but this looks more like him trying to avoid his lynch altogether because scum would claim PR.

I was worried the hammer was going to go down while I was gone, I was already at L-1.  Seemed like a good opportunity to throw it out there.

Particularly with Day1 about to end, I felt it was important that I don't miss the opportunity to defend myself, however weakly that opportunity was.

I had no issues with the timing of your claim.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #827 on: July 21, 2013, 08:27:39 pm »

chairs, can you give your reads for everyone?  Or quote where you did?  It's helpful in case you die.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #828 on: July 21, 2013, 08:28:02 pm »

Also, this is your first forum mafia game here, right?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #829 on: July 21, 2013, 08:32:40 pm »

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

I think this is a really hedgy, unsure view of the alternative lynch to Chairs, that doesn't really tell us anything at all.

I agree with Mcmc's analysis that you really aren't saying all that much here, and that you have very few scum reads beyond "suspicions" that aren't putting yourself out there at all.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #830 on: July 21, 2013, 08:34:32 pm »

Hello........anyone?  Day ends in 14 hours.

I'm here.

To answer your Chairs question, this is his third game, I believe. He was town in Back to Basics, and town in Innovation.

Mcmc isn't going to happen today -- how do you feel on Chairs v. Volt?
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #831 on: July 21, 2013, 08:39:05 pm »

Hello........anyone?  Day ends in 14 hours.

I'm here.

To answer your Chairs question, this is his third game, I believe. He was town in Back to Basics, and town in Innovation.

Mcmc isn't going to happen today -- how do you feel on Chairs v. Volt?

Thanks for the chairs thing.  I forgot he was in Innovation, but that game was a bear to digest, and I skipped B2B.

Mcmc isn't happening today because?  UoS found 6 people willing to vote the guy.  Do they all prefer Chairs or Volt to mcmc?

14 hours from now is my middle of the night.  I guess I'm willing to hammer before going to sleep if it means averting a No Lynch, but literally, that's the only reason.

I prefer Volt to chairs, so if you are willing to put him at L-1, that helps.  I think we'll need a claim from Volt as well.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #832 on: July 21, 2013, 08:39:47 pm »

Oh right, Robz is the one that switched.  I wonder if he's willing to switch back to avert the No Lynch.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #833 on: July 21, 2013, 08:44:03 pm »

I'm on volt currently. I would hammer chairs tomorrow to avoid no lynch though and I'm sure others would also
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #834 on: July 21, 2013, 08:54:34 pm »

Is there anything else to discuss?  We've run out of time and it seems a lot of folks have dug in their heels.

I'd like a Volt claim, but it isn't coming until he's back at L-1 with Intent to Hammer, I imagine.  Anyone on chairs willing to switch?
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #835 on: July 21, 2013, 08:57:12 pm »

Voltaire (5): shraeye, mcmcsalot, chairs, Jimmmm, TA (L-2)
chairs (6): nkirbit, Voltaire, Eevee, Snow, raerae, liopoil (L-1)
mcmcsalot: (1) ashersky
liopoil (1): Robz

Looking at wagons, I see town reads on chairs and scum reads on Volt, but I think Volt is more likely scum than chairs.  I don't know what to think of that.

I honestly think that people feel like chairs is the safest option for D1.  I think the town on his wagon believe losing town chairs is not as bad as losing town Volt, and aren't willing to take the risk.

I think that's a bad policy for lynching.  Has volt been more active?  Sure.  Doesn't make him more "valuable" or more likely to be town.  Volt has a higher chance of flipping scum, if we have to choose between the two, it's a no brainer.
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raerae

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #836 on: July 21, 2013, 08:58:00 pm »

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

Are you kidding me?

1. Townie
2. Null/suspicious
3. Null
4. Townie/suspicious
5. Suspicious/expect more
6. Null
7. Null
8. Suspicious/expect more
9. Null
10. Scum
11. Null
12. Townie

So you have one scum read and everyone else is null and you have a few slight town/suspicion.

Whoops!!  Sorrry!  Forgot to name the scumteam D1 since I'm so awesome and great at that and it always benefits town and is never ever wrong or totally misguided!  Say something productive, please.  By the way, where is that reads reasons list you've been promising us all day?
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #837 on: July 21, 2013, 08:59:56 pm »


Whoops!!  Sorrry!  Forgot to name the scumteam D1 since I'm so awesome and great at that and it always benefits town and is never ever wrong or totally misguided!  Say something productive, please.  By the way, where is that reads reasons list you've been promising us all day?

Vote mcmc with me, raerae.  You know you want to.  He's scummy like Randall.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #838 on: July 21, 2013, 09:04:30 pm »



I find it interesting that you're using my similarities to different games selectively.

In pirates, when we were both town, one of the MAIN reasons you pushed my lynch so hard is that you thought I was throwing suspicion everywhere, on a lot of players. You called me out for it, over and over, D1, D2, repeatedly. Yet you're using it here, again, as a reason to find me scummy. You make no link with the previous game, which I would expect to remain fairly prominent in your mind given how much you tunneled me in that game.

Yet, you don't bring it up as a reason to find me towny.

I also think it's really, really, really, odd that you're using my gameplay from Innovation, and found one similarity, and one difference. Yet somehow you've used BOTH of them to paint me in a scummy light.

I don't get how I could simultaneous be scummy for a difference from Innovation, and scummy for a similarity to Innovation.

It seems like you're selectively picking and choosing my similarities to other games to find reasons I'm scummy.

This sets off alarm bells for me. You're not looking to identify whether or not I'm scummy, or towny. You are digging for reasons on why I'm scummy. Town has more incentive to try to identify whether I'm town or scum -- but that's not what you're doing here. You're simply looking for reasons to make me seem scummy. This is fishy, especially given that I'm not a viable lynch target, and it gives me the impression you're already starting towards your D2 mislynch, after you get the D1 mislynch out of the way.
As for the Pirates game, there was a difference there.  It looked like you were 'shotgunning' suspicion on EVERYONE, and seeing what stuck.  I am not accusing you of that in this game.  I am saying that you are simultaneously showing suspicion of Voltaire, but also protecting him.  I'm just looking at your interactions with just one person, not with all people.

For the second bolded part, as I explained to somebody (nkirbit?) already, I think it makes sense that both of the aspects I mentioned are scummy in this game, even though one is a similarity to Innovation, and one is a difference.  The thing that you are doing patently different between the games is a very obvious tell.  In Innovation, I encouraged you to flood the thread with tons of posts.  Here, you have sooo few, that I'm thinking you are consciously trying to move away from something that shraeye told you to do in Innovation, lest he pick you out as scum in this game.

The thing that you are doing similarly (simultaneously attacking and defending somebody) is something that I am not so sure you would have been aware of, because it wasn't something that we explicitly discussed in the Innovation scumQT.  Therefore, when I see you committing that foul again, I find that it is evidence of the scumTwisted-meta.

Additionally, in the underlined part, you're saying that if anyone says that somebody other than chairs/Volt is scummy, then that person is scum.  Well forgive me for being town, but I don't have the luxury of knowing that I'll survive until tomorrow.  If I find somebody scummy, I'm putting that read out there for sure.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #839 on: July 21, 2013, 09:05:32 pm »

Shraeye seems off
Ooh, please do explain!

The first thing that stuck out at me were that you were calling people out for "editing" their posts, when they clearly weren't editing, they just made a typo. It's odd to accuse someone of editing a post when there's actual mistakes in it -- wouldn't it not have typos?
If you go back to look at those posts, these weren't just typos.  They weren't misspelled words, missings words, or substituted words.  It looks like the sentence was at various times written in multiple ways, and then never seamlessly edited together properly.  Remnants of each way of writing it remain.
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raerae

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #840 on: July 21, 2013, 09:09:02 pm »

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

I think this is a really hedgy, unsure view of the alternative lynch to Chairs, that doesn't really tell us anything at all.

I agree with Mcmc's analysis that you really aren't saying all that much here, and that you have very few scum reads beyond "suspicions" that aren't putting yourself out there at all.

No.  No.  It's D1.  I refuse to name a scumteam D1.  I won't because that's ridiculous.  I reserve the right to be unsure about everything ESPECIALLY D1.  Why did you only point out Volt?  None of my reads were solid.  All could be considered hedgey.  Why only point the finger at Volt?
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raerae

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #841 on: July 21, 2013, 09:10:27 pm »


Whoops!!  Sorrry!  Forgot to name the scumteam D1 since I'm so awesome and great at that and it always benefits town and is never ever wrong or totally misguided!  Say something productive, please.  By the way, where is that reads reasons list you've been promising us all day?

Vote mcmc with me, raerae.  You know you want to.  He's scummy like Randall.

I could probably be convinced, is there a case on him I can review?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #842 on: July 21, 2013, 09:12:53 pm »

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

I think this is a really hedgy, unsure view of the alternative lynch to Chairs, that doesn't really tell us anything at all.

I agree with Mcmc's analysis that you really aren't saying all that much here, and that you have very few scum reads beyond "suspicions" that aren't putting yourself out there at all.

No.  No.  It's D1.  I refuse to name a scumteam D1.  I won't because that's ridiculous.  I reserve the right to be unsure about everything ESPECIALLY D1.  Why did you only point out Volt?  None of my reads were solid.  All could be considered hedgey.  Why only point the finger at Volt?

I said why only Volt. Because he's the alternative lynch.

You're looking at the alternative lynch, and basically saying you're totally unsure. I get that, it's a valid opinion, it's D1. But you're basically saying "I see where people are coming from, but he seems towny too, so I don't know." You're not taking a stand one way or the other.

I know it's D1, and no one's asking you to name the scum team. But you have a lot of null reads, a ton of null reads, and I think that's pretty unusual to have so many players you just don't have an opinion on at this point.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #843 on: July 21, 2013, 09:17:00 pm »


Whoops!!  Sorrry!  Forgot to name the scumteam D1 since I'm so awesome and great at that and it always benefits town and is never ever wrong or totally misguided!  Say something productive, please.  By the way, where is that reads reasons list you've been promising us all day?

Vote mcmc with me, raerae.  You know you want to.  He's scummy like Randall.

I could probably be convinced, is there a case on him I can review?

Here was my first statement on mcmc being scummy from who knows when (I used "print" to search):

Quote
mcmcsalot == first post of the game was "hey I like this Hider plan, do this and do that" and then he had the "this ash is scum ash, too easy vote: ash" and then he was all "wait, that's town ash unvote".  That's the entirety of his game play so far.  This isn't lurky-town-mcmc, which we've all come to know.  This is scum!mcmc with drive by postings.  His flipflop on me was too convenient, and he only switched off after he saw I wasn't going to be the easy lynch.

Since then, he's flip flopped on me again and he's still sort of lurked.  I'll look for more of the cases on him.
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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #844 on: July 21, 2013, 09:17:59 pm »

Ashersky, why do you want volt to claim? he shouldn't claim unless he's getting lynched for sure if he doesn't. If volt is town and he claims and we just lynch chairs that's bad... and if chairs is town and we lynch volt that's bad too. I think chairs is more likely to flip scum AND the lynch that hurts town less if he   is town, because he is a claimed VT.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #845 on: July 21, 2013, 09:18:25 pm »

Regarding an Mcmcsalot vote:

1. Ashersky is currently voting him.
2. Umbrageofsnow has voted for him and would happily do so again.
3. Twistedarcher said "I'd rather lynch Mcmc than either Volt or Chairs, I think"

These seem like the definite votes.  Then we have
4. Raerae "As I said, chairs is the other one I would vote for"
5. Voltaire "Chairs I find the most scummy... mcmc I also find scummy, but not as strongly.
6. Liopoil lists him in his second tier of scumminess, less so than Robz and chairs, but still scummy

Those are all the public statements I could find in recent days (might have missed something though)

7. ?

Eevee said he thought Mcmcsalot was "too easy", so I sort of doubt he'd be the 7th vote.

Although I don't know if we have a 7th vote for chairs either.

DOES ANYONE WANT TO VOTE FOR MCMCSALOT THAT I DIDN'T LIST?
WOULD ANYONE NOT ON THE CHAIRS WAGON PREFER THE MCMCSALOT WAGON?

I'm happy with either lynch.  But it would be nice to get seven people together without anyone feeling like we're getting scum to push us into compromising for a likely town-lynch.  Is that often possible?  I'd like it to be, but I admit I don't know.

Here UoS mentions others who have found mcmc scummy.  I'm looking for why still, but TA is around.  He could add to this.
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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #846 on: July 21, 2013, 09:19:22 pm »

That said, I too am willing to vote voltaire to avert no lynch, but so is everyone else I think.
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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #847 on: July 21, 2013, 09:19:59 pm »

Here is my shortened reads list

Scum:
Voltaire (most very likely),
Twitsed (definitely),
nkirbit (it's a pretty weak read)

people I'm suspicious of:
Jimmmm (I keep feeling uneasy when I think of him as town; but also when I think of him as scum),
Umbrage (null for now; if Twisted flips scum, his scumminess goes up)

Super-null:
Robz
liopoil (I was messin' around earlier)
Eevee
chairs (i haven't even read this case yet; I promise to if somebody gives me post numbers to check on)

people who I feel comfortable with:
raerae (she cool),
mcmcsalot (this last-hour suspicion really makes me skeptical...when I'm scum and my partner is picking up scumreads, but isn't in the limelight, I'm unlikely to also call him scum. But if some towny is picking up sideline suspicion, I'll fan those flames and call him scum too.  The fact that 6-7 people find him suspicious and he's like the double double backup list as others pursue other stuff; it makes me lean town)

Town:
ashersky (I'm pretty confident in this)
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #848 on: July 21, 2013, 09:21:14 pm »

Shraeye, it's pretty clear to me that the editing examples you pointed out were just people typing more quickly than their brains could think. You're not using it as a major point though, so I don't really think it's worth arguing over.

As for me changing how I play -- you're free to think that I'm completely changing my gameplay based off of one suggestion you made, but I can assure you, I'm not. You very easily could have taken the argument that I'm changing my play, because you pointed out how anti-town my filling up threads was, to be more towny this game and make it easier for us to catch scum. But instead, you'resaying that I'm doing it to create false towncred for myself as scum. What you're saying is just one explanation, much like all the other things you're finding me scummy for.

What I find interesting about your analysis is that it reeks of trying to find reasons to paint me scummy. You're taking differences/similarities in my game play, and analyzing them in a scummy light. For most things you've pointed out, there's also an explanation to how my gameplay could be interpreted as more towny in this game. Yet, in most instances, you've come down on the side of "TA is scummy because of this difference/similarity". I have the benefit of knowing I'm town, but I think you're reallllly reaching in your reasoning, and that you were sitting waiting for the end of Innovation so that you could build a case on me once everyone saw I flipped scum there.

Your explanation of my behavior in this game seems like scum reaching for reasons to justify a scum-read, rather than town hunting to see if someone's scummy. Basically, I'm getting the impression that the read came before the reasons, and that's something that will always be scummy to me.
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raerae

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #849 on: July 21, 2013, 09:21:58 pm »


I said why only Volt. Because he's the alternative lynch.

You're looking at the alternative lynch, and basically saying you're totally unsure. I get that, it's a valid opinion, it's D1. But you're basically saying "I see where people are coming from, but he seems towny too, so I don't know." You're not taking a stand one way or the other.

I know it's D1, and no one's asking you to name the scum team. But you have a lot of null reads, a ton of null reads, and I think that's pretty unusual to have so many players you just don't have an opinion on at this point.
[/quote]

But...what?? I mean, is it OK for me to be unsure or not OK?  You said both.  (talk about hedgey...)  I don't understand.  I've asked for clarification on both current lynch targets and haven't received any.  I can see the case on Volt but considering it's coming from somebody I'm inherently suspicious of, obviously I'm not going to jump straight on without an explanation of why it's better than my D1 case.  And to be honest, they are both weak but it's the best anybody has bothered to come up with today so shame straight on your face for not even offering something better. 
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