Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 [16] 17 18 ... 82  All

Author Topic: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Mafia Wins  (Read 189056 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Voltaire

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 957
  • flavor text
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #375 on: July 15, 2013, 01:43:14 pm »

I just finished a re-read of the entire thread. Here at the top, I'd like to say that I've found this day to be quite nice overall, and completely outside of gambits/alignment, I hope that at the end of the game most people agree about that.

Moving on to reads (I will happily go into more detail if needed, I did not take good notes and didn't realize how difficult it would be to refer back when I started):

shraeye came in all riled up about how everything was terrible at a time when it wasn't, but since then has contributed quite well. I have a grudging town read here, and I think the "grudging" is simply because I don't like the playstyle.

TA was pretty null for me for a long time, which was getting suspicious, but has since made a long string of posts I find towny. So town again.

Lio is striking me as off. Slight scum read.

raerae is middling town.

Robz is...an enigma. As usual. I actually haven't seen much either way, and that tends to read scummy. Move him from middling town to middling scum.

Eevee is actually more of a null read than usual for me. That has me nervous, but Eevee is a strong town player and I'm game to see what happens from hereon out. Basically, null and need more info.

Snow is obvtown to me at this point. Something drastic will need to happen for me to change this read.

Jimmm, Jimmm, Jimmm...coming across as scummy to me still. Is this confirmation bias because he was my first scum read? Slight scum.

nkirbit has lots of posts, and only one of them stood out to me in any way, and that was only slightly. This null read has me suspicious.

mcmc I'm currently viewing as lurking town. Slight town.

ash: wtf? I have absolutely no idea what to make of any of this. Before everything exploded here, I had a null read. Now I have a screamingly annoying null read.

chairs - this is my biggest scum read. After a thread's worth of posting not much useful content, chairs jumps on the ash wagon (which, if ash is town, is an easy mislynch I think). I do not like that one bit.

vote: chairs

Organizing my reads:

Scum:
chairs

Scummy:
jimmm
Robz
lio

Null:
ash
nkirbit
Eevee

Town-ish:
mcmc
raerae
TA
shraeye

Town:
Snow
Logged

UmbrageOfSnow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 167
  • Shuffle iT Username: Umbrageofsnow
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #376 on: July 15, 2013, 01:48:17 pm »

Okay, so I didn't post yesterday due to life and trying to not post so much, I'm going to compose a couple of big posts, 1 about my thoughts on Ashersky, and maybe look again at Nkirbit and Shraeye just to give alternatives some thought.  But briefly for now, I'm 100% okay with an Ashersky lynch, and here's why:

With all this talk about whether it is too crazy to be scum or so crazy it's brilliant scum, I remember a Diplomacy strategy article I read a few years ago (linked here, give it a skim).  "Chainsaw" seems to have another meaning in Mafia, but the definition of "Chainsaw Diplomacy" in Diplomacy fits very well with what I think Ashersky is doing here.

I'm not 100% convinced by any means, I think there is room for error, but I think it is perfectly reasonable, savy scum play to go completely ballistic because "scum would never do that".  I could also understand Ash being legitimately frustrated, but I'm not entirely sure why and I see just way too many good-for-scum-bad-for-town holes in his logic to get off the wagon.  I think Ash is currently our best lynch, but I don't know that we should all jump on it unexamined.  I'll go through in more detail in a bit.
Logged

UmbrageOfSnow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 167
  • Shuffle iT Username: Umbrageofsnow
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #377 on: July 15, 2013, 01:57:47 pm »

Question regarding Liopoil for everyone not named Liopoil:

Many people seem to have a scum-read here.  I don't see it.  I assume it has something to do with his posts here as compared to other games?

Anyone care to explain this in specific detail?  There very well might be something there, but most of the posts about him have been vague statements that he just feels off.  What specifically is off, let's talk about this!
Logged

Eevee

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1010
  • Shuffle iT Username: Eevee
  • A wild Eevee appears!
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #378 on: July 15, 2013, 02:03:32 pm »

Question regarding Liopoil for everyone not named Liopoil:

Many people seem to have a scum-read here.  I don't see it.  I assume it has something to do with his posts here as compared to other games?

Anyone care to explain this in specific detail?  There very well might be something there, but most of the posts about him have been vague statements that he just feels off.  What specifically is off, let's talk about this!
I have tried to ask this twice now! Second second. Dodging this question earlier is part of the reason I find shraeye scummy, although I now see I originally didn't word the question so well.

(
Hi guys, it's Eevee.

I don't understand shraeye's liopoil-hunt at all. What has he done to seem so scummy?

Hands down my strongest read is UmbrageOfSnow, dude is as towny as it gets, not sure why some people are giving him such a hard time. Fwiw UoS, I'm amazed at the effort and the performance you are showing this far.

I'm leaning slight town on Robz for not making any attempts to seem townie.

Snow was wondering if chairs being a null score all the way until here is scummy, I say heck yeah it is. It's not that he has posted anything damning, it's that he has maintained a healthy post count without really saying much anything at all. I do agree that votes are a good way to get the game going, and I would vote chairs if ashersky wasn't going so ballistic.

Vote: ashersky, I think his behavior has been very anti-town and I can't fathom it being anti-town in a way that's useful for scumhunting or whatever. I don't know if I should even try, but ash, why would you be a good lynch for today?
)
Logged

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #379 on: July 15, 2013, 02:09:39 pm »

I was away all weekend, just caught up.

I don't think Ash is scum here.  Ash has come under pressure before for self voting (mislynched or close to mislynched?), and I don't see the incentives here for him would he be scum.  If he's scum!ash, he's going to make himself the topic of conversation, and it could easily go wrong.  Scum!ash wants to stay active, because Ash is always active, but throwing yourself into that spotlight is the wrong way to go about it, I would think.

I think what we're seeing here is town!ash being frustrated.  We just came off Innovation, which had the longest and most unfun day1 I've ever participated in, and he has a desire not to have a repeat of that.  So I can see where he's coming from with the "Oh god, if we're going there just kill me now."  Playing mafia is supposed to be fun, but this kind of mafia is often unfun.  It's hard to re-read, it drags on, etc.

So I really think we have town Ash here.  This makes me suspicious of all the people voting for him.. I'm going to go look at his wagon and see who is in scummy positions, and who is voting for bad reasons.
Logged

UmbrageOfSnow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 167
  • Shuffle iT Username: Umbrageofsnow
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #380 on: July 15, 2013, 02:29:29 pm »

I think it's worth noting that we still have TEN DAYS.  I don't think we should rush to lynch just to "get day 1 over with".  We should take our time, talk things out, look at different angles.  There is no need to rush so much, and although everyone is saying this is impossible to reread, it wasn't really all that long, especially if you are focussing on one poster or another.  I hope my big list would make that easier too, since you can see where people made substantive posts and go back and look at those without the filter of my thoughts on them.  There are 25 posts per page, right?  That's not so hard.

Also, I've been reading up on some of the stuff on the site linked in the first posts, and I stumbled upon this, which I thought was interesting:
Quote
However, we can follow that up by constructing means and confidence intervals for both towns that win and towns that lose. Towns that win have a mean D1 of 18.94 pages with a 95% CI of (15.26, 22.62); towns that lose have a mean D1 length of 14.14 pages with a 95% CI of (10.4, 17.87); the fact that each mean falls outside the opposite CI suggests there is a statistical difference between the means.

There is some arguing about how much this can extrapolate to outliers, and of course it is a different site, but I think the argument that a shorter Day 1 is better for Town is simply incorrect, although too long could be a problem, I don't know why we're having such a fuss about it already.  I think we're having some good discussion, which is the most important thing, right?
Of course this is a different site
Logged

UmbrageOfSnow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 167
  • Shuffle iT Username: Umbrageofsnow
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #381 on: July 15, 2013, 02:36:46 pm »

Oh, also
If I'm the Hider, each night I will take the list of players, in the order listed in the OP, and starting from my own name, count down the number that is next to my flavour name in the second OP, skipping myself, anyone who's dead, and anyone I've already hidden behind, unless that's everyone in which case that will reset. Whichever name I land on, I will hide behind that player.
Logged

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #382 on: July 15, 2013, 02:41:12 pm »

Wagon on Ash:

1) Snow, who votes Ash for his opposition to the hider plan.  I don't find this scummy at all, since Ash hasn't said the "may as well vote me" bit yet, isn't an easy target at all.
--Ash says "everyone stop this speculative talk and we can lynch me today."

2) Mcmc says "either this is town ash or easily faked meta.  Going with number 2".  This is scummy.. he's the first one to push this as a serious wagon, and doesn't provide us with any reasons why it's the second, and not the first.  If you think it's the second, tell us why!  It looks like you're just picking at random between the two, at best.

3) Ash self votes.

4) Shraeye says "Yay, a wagon!" and votes Ashersky.  No reason, but this is consistent with some of his earlier play.  More on this later.

5) Mcmc unvotes Ash upon a re-read.  Back to three votes.

6) Eevee comes and votes Ash for being "anti-town".  I don't find this scummy because Eevee has a good reason here.. it's a contradiction that town!ash is frustrated by how anti-town the theory talk is, and as a result, starts a wagon on a townmember (himself!).  That's a good point, and while I think Ash is in fact town because the incentives aren't there for him to act this way as scum, don't find Eevee scummy for this vote.

7) Jimm votes for Ash.  I don't like this vote as much, because it seems to be for disagreeing about theory, which I think is always a bad way to vote.

8) TA votes Ash.  I like his reasons, namely that Ash didn't seem to consider the plan, which was weird, and that Ash isn't finding TA scummy for proposing the plan despite it being his only major contribution, which was weird, and there wasn't actually that much risk since the first serious wagon of the day hardly ever goes through.  I disagree with the last point, as it obviously does happen (I was the first major wagon day1 of B2B, for example), but it is true more often than not that it doesn't go through.

9) Chairs votes Ash.  This is actually one of the more scummy votes on the wagon, as it pushes him to L-1 (although Chairs thought it was L-2), and came with hesitation.  "I'm going to be miffed if you guys are right and he's just doing crazy things.".  This is an odd thing to say with someone you vote!  If you're voting someone, especially this early during the day, it should be because you're pretty sure they're scum!  Voting someone, but attaching a "hope I'm not wrong!" to it makes it seem like you're not that sure he's scum, and at that point, why are you voting this early?  You know who's most worried about what happens when a player flips town?  Scum!  Because if Ash is town (which I think he is), scum KNOW he's going to flip town!  So they're the most likely ones to express worry about a mislynch, because the next day they want to be able to say "well, I wasn't sure of it!"

10) A couple people unvote just to make sure the lynch doesn't go through before everyone has time to process it.  Good move, but null read.

The two scummiest people on the wagon were Mcmc and Chairs.  Mcmc voted for bad reasons, then backed off.  To me, this sounds like a scum member realizing that they're in a really bad position on the wagon, and they should remove themselves to protect from suspicion.  If mcmc's town, it looks like he voted without reading what Ash had said.  Possible, but I'm leaning more towards the scum narrative because I think town mcmc would be more careful about his votes than that, whereas scum mcmc has a large incentive to get a wagon at least rolling on ash.  Either the wagon goes through, or we spend a lot of time talking about town members.

Chairs is the scummiest for me, though.  Voting someone, and in the same post saying something like "hope I'm not wrong!" gives me the impression that you're covering for when it goes wrong.  And who knows it's going to go wrong?  Scum!

On Shraeye:  A few times this game, he's sort of "set up traps".  He voted for Lio, and said "Hop along and see what happens", and voted for Ash, simply saying "Ooh, a wagon!"  This could either be a town member who's interested in pushing the game forward by actually creating voting analysis, but it could also be a scum member who's going to turn on the first town member who scummily falls into his trap.  I have no idea which it is.. what does everyone else think?
Logged

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #383 on: July 15, 2013, 02:42:02 pm »

If I'm the Hider, each night I will take the list of players, in the order listed in the OP, and starting from my own name, count down the number that is next to my flavour name in the second OP, skipping myself, anyone who's dead, and anyone I've already hidden behind, unless that's everyone in which case that will reset. Whichever name I land on, I will hide behind that player.
Logged

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #384 on: July 15, 2013, 02:45:46 pm »

I believe that's L - 2 on ash. The question we have to ask, I think, is "Would scum ash be this bold?" Whether Town or scum, he knows that loudly disagreeing with the majority and going so far as to dare us to lynch him is going to rub people the wrong way. We've certainly seen this sort of thing before from ash as Town - in Bankers I really wanted to keep going after him because I disagreed with the way he was playing, but in the end I reluctantly concluded that I thought he was Town. So is this a ploy from scum ash wanting us to conclude that he's Town because scum ash wouldn't be so bold, or is this simply Town ash being ash and not really caring if he rubs people the wrong way?

In one sense I think this would be a reasonable lynch regardless. At least if he's Town we can get some reads from him and then move on from this. He's already made it clear that if he's the Hider or the TrackerVig then he'll use those roles poorly, so at least we wouldn't have to worry about that any more.

Anyway, I do think there is a reasonable chance that ash is scum trying to replicate his Town meta, and I think he's the best lynch candidate at the moment.

PPE 6

I disagree. If you think Ashersky flips scum, vote him. If not, don't vote him. We are still early D1, this is our first significant wagon, it's far, far, far too early to vote someone simply because it could be beneficial even if they flip town.

We should not be trying to lynch to gain information -- we should be trying to lynch scum. This quote is really fishy, to me.
Logged

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #385 on: July 15, 2013, 02:46:25 pm »

Also, I've been reading up on some of the stuff on the site linked in the first posts, and I stumbled upon this, which I thought was interesting:
Quote
However, we can follow that up by constructing means and confidence intervals for both towns that win and towns that lose. Towns that win have a mean D1 of 18.94 pages with a 95% CI of (15.26, 22.62); towns that lose have a mean D1 length of 14.14 pages with a 95% CI of (10.4, 17.87); the fact that each mean falls outside the opposite CI suggests there is a statistical difference between the means.

There is some arguing about how much this can extrapolate to outliers, and of course it is a different site, but I think the argument that a shorter Day 1 is better for Town is simply incorrect, although too long could be a problem, I don't know why we're having such a fuss about it already.  I think we're having some good discussion, which is the most important thing, right?
Of course this is a different site

Snow, I think the site those statistics come from is such a drastically different environment that those statistics may as well be meaningless here.  I've read games over there, and they have literally lynched players for no reason at all.  A wagon starts on them, and other players jump on because they want to see what will happen!  The amount of lynches they have that are "random" is very high.

And we have had games that have dragged on Day1 for 50+ pages.  At that point, that's so outside the scope of those statistics that we're not drawing from the same sample.

I would like to think we have much, much higher quality games here than they have over there.  So I don't think statistics that apply to that site are particularly relevant here.
Logged

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #386 on: July 15, 2013, 02:48:03 pm »

I don't think Ash is scum here.  Ash has come under pressure before for self voting (mislynched or close to mislynched?), and I don't see the incentives here for him would he be scum.  If he's scum!ash, he's going to make himself the topic of conversation, and it could easily go wrong.  Scum!ash wants to stay active, because Ash is always active, but throwing yourself into that spotlight is the wrong way to go about it, I would think.

I'd agree if this was the first time he did this. But, people have seen this before, and he had to expect the defense that he was getting from Robz. He knows that, if he's been mislynched for this before, town isn't going to do it again easily. If he's scum, this is a great way to get town reads from people.

I think the argument of "he wouldn't do this if he's scum, it gets too much attention" is invalidated by the fact that he knows people would be wary of lynching him for the reason that he's done it before as town.

Logged

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #387 on: July 15, 2013, 03:13:23 pm »

Can somebody give a full case on Ash?  Saying "he's being anti-town" just ain't gonna cut it.  Tell me why he's mafia and not why you don't like how he's playing.  I (for, like, the 2nd time in history) completely agree with Robz.  This is town ash being pain in the butt town ash.
Logged

Voltaire

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 957
  • flavor text
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #388 on: July 15, 2013, 03:22:00 pm »

Chairs is the scummiest for me, though.  Voting someone, and in the same post saying something like "hope I'm not wrong!" gives me the impression that you're covering for when it goes wrong.  And who knows it's going to go wrong?  Scum!

On Shraeye:  A few times this game, he's sort of "set up traps".  He voted for Lio, and said "Hop along and see what happens", and voted for Ash, simply saying "Ooh, a wagon!"  This could either be a town member who's interested in pushing the game forward by actually creating voting analysis, but it could also be a scum member who's going to turn on the first town member who scummily falls into his trap.  I have no idea which it is.. what does everyone else think?
Any reason you're not voting for chairs, then?

I personally view shraeye's actions as pro-town, but they're a null read. Why? Because Robz does this when he's town and when he's scum, and though I like what it causes, I've seen scum do it.
Logged

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #389 on: July 15, 2013, 03:29:11 pm »

I believe that's L - 2 on ash. The question we have to ask, I think, is "Would scum ash be this bold?" Whether Town or scum, he knows that loudly disagreeing with the majority and going so far as to dare us to lynch him is going to rub people the wrong way. We've certainly seen this sort of thing before from ash as Town - in Bankers I really wanted to keep going after him because I disagreed with the way he was playing, but in the end I reluctantly concluded that I thought he was Town. So is this a ploy from scum ash wanting us to conclude that he's Town because scum ash wouldn't be so bold, or is this simply Town ash being ash and not really caring if he rubs people the wrong way?

In one sense I think this would be a reasonable lynch regardless. At least if he's Town we can get some reads from him and then move on from this. He's already made it clear that if he's the Hider or the TrackerVig then he'll use those roles poorly, so at least we wouldn't have to worry about that any more.

Anyway, I do think there is a reasonable chance that ash is scum trying to replicate his Town meta, and I think he's the best lynch candidate at the moment.

PPE 6
This seems really insincere in tone.  The first paragraph is just an outward display that you've "really thought about it", the second is an effort to end day1 before any progress occurs, the third is a hedgy justification for voting ash.
Logged

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #390 on: July 15, 2013, 03:36:23 pm »

On Shraeye:  A few times this game, he's sort of "set up traps".  He voted for Lio, and said "Hop along and see what happens", and voted for Ash, simply saying "Ooh, a wagon!"  This could either be a town member who's interested in pushing the game forward by actually creating voting analysis, but it could also be a scum member who's going to turn on the first town member who scummily falls into his trap.  I have no idea which it is.. what does everyone else think?
But they weren't even designed as traps, I just do what I feel like (hej, Pippi Langstrumpf).  Of course, I always am looking for reactions to posts, to the posts I make, and to the posts that others make.  You saying "oh hey, this feels like a trap!" when I was voting liopoil early in the game is an odd reaction.  So I kept watching you.  You're "I totally agree with you Umbrage, but here's a rational post saying say these other people disagree" was also a red flag.  Adding these up in my mind makes me want to

Vote: nkirbit


Why are you so wary of potential 'traps'?
Logged

Voltaire

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 957
  • flavor text
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #391 on: July 15, 2013, 03:51:10 pm »

Question regarding Liopoil for everyone not named Liopoil:

Many people seem to have a scum-read here.  I don't see it.  I assume it has something to do with his posts here as compared to other games?

Anyone care to explain this in specific detail?  There very well might be something there, but most of the posts about him have been vague statements that he just feels off.  What specifically is off, let's talk about this!
I have tried to ask this twice now! Second second. Dodging this question earlier is part of the reason I find shraeye scummy, although I now see I originally didn't word the question so well.

That's what you were saying! I saw you mention something about finding me scummy for dodging the lio question, which I didn't think I had? Or maybe you were talking about someone else.

Anyway, this is why I find lio slightly scummy:

Wow, umbrage, that is awesome. I'm not sure I agree with your evaluations about everything, but that's a great post. And it actually gives me a fairly large townread on you, just for the effort that I don't think scum would bother with. I'm sure scum will manipulate that though.

Putting up a big long post of summary is something scum does for towncred all the time. I assume lio knows this.

And then generally, we had what I view as a pretty dang good hider plan, and then lio comes in and mucks up the waters with a confusing one where we have to give reads. Who would want to derail town's good use of a PR? Scum.

Now, is this a strong case? No. It's why lio is a light scum read for me, and why my vote is elsewhere.
Logged

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #392 on: July 15, 2013, 03:53:49 pm »

I continue to find Voltaire manifestly the scummiest player.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #393 on: July 15, 2013, 04:10:15 pm »

It's why lio is a light scum read for me, and why my vote is elsewhere.
Where is your vote, and why is it there?
Logged

Voltaire

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 957
  • flavor text
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #394 on: July 15, 2013, 04:13:51 pm »

It's why lio is a light scum read for me, and why my vote is elsewhere.
Where is your vote, and why is it there?

At the top of this very page, in my reads post:

chairs - this is my biggest scum read. After a thread's worth of posting not much useful content, chairs jumps on the ash wagon (which, if ash is town, is an easy mislynch I think). I do not like that one bit.

vote: chairs
Logged

UmbrageOfSnow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 167
  • Shuffle iT Username: Umbrageofsnow
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #395 on: July 15, 2013, 04:32:09 pm »

I continue to find Voltaire manifestly the scummiest player.

Why?

You previously voted Jimmmm for his RVS (and his flavor claim suggestion I think?), which fine, weren't particularly strong reasons, but then you switched it over with:
TA's case on Volt is good. Best think we have going for us so far. Stop voting for ash please. I doubt this is scum ash.

TA's case consisted of:
Back-to-back posts by Voltaire saying "Let me clarify this, in case someone calls me on it", and "People said we should vote? Here, I'll vote!" seems a little too crowd-pleasing to me.

At this point you think he's manifestly the scummiest player based on TA's reasoning alone?  That seems like an awfully strong escalation of a pretty slim "case" which hasn't been expanded on at all.
Logged

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #396 on: July 15, 2013, 04:34:54 pm »

Vote Count 1.7

Mrs. Peacock and Professor Plum quickly abandoned their post and ran toward the sound of the scream. So did everyone else. In a very dramatic moment Miss Scarlet and Mrs. Peacock ran into each other at the foot of the stairs. SMASH!

"Out of my way you old hag," Miss Scarlett shouted.

Another scream rang out. It came from the Billard's Room.

10 guests rushed into the tiny room and saw a stunning scene. Mr. Green was standing over The Singing Telegram Girl, who was lying on the pool table, with a billard's stick in his hands. Yvette the Maid looked like Mrs. White and was as white as the cue ball on the table. She screamed again as the group crowded inside the small room.

Everyone looked at Mr. Green and the stick in his hand. "I didn't do it!" he shouted.

liopoil (1): raerae,
ashersky (5): Snow, ashersky, TA, chairs, Eevee
Voltaire (1): Robz
chairs (1): Voltaire
nkirbit (1): shraeye

Not voting: (4) liopoil, nkirbit, mcmcsalot, Jimmmm

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day1 Ends in 10 days. July 22nd at 10:30 a.m. forum time.

« Last Edit: July 15, 2013, 05:39:34 pm by yuma »
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #397 on: July 15, 2013, 05:28:11 pm »

On Shraeye:  A few times this game, he's sort of "set up traps".  He voted for Lio, and said "Hop along and see what happens", and voted for Ash, simply saying "Ooh, a wagon!"  This could either be a town member who's interested in pushing the game forward by actually creating voting analysis, but it could also be a scum member who's going to turn on the first town member who scummily falls into his trap.  I have no idea which it is.. what does everyone else think?
But they weren't even designed as traps, I just do what I feel like (hej, Pippi Langstrumpf).  Of course, I always am looking for reactions to posts, to the posts I make, and to the posts that others make.  You saying "oh hey, this feels like a trap!" when I was voting liopoil early in the game is an odd reaction.  So I kept watching you.  You're "I totally agree with you Umbrage, but here's a rational post saying say these other people disagree" was also a red flag.  Adding these up in my mind makes me want to

Vote: nkirbit


Why are you so wary of potential 'traps'?

I agreed with Snow in that I think the plan was good.  But I don't have any desire to talk about it, because we could easily spend 30 pages doing so.  I didn't want the game to turn into Innovation because Innovation is absolutely zero fun for me right now, and was zero fun for me during day1.  I wanted to move on.

I'm wary about the traps because they seem like an easy way to create a mislynch.  I'm worried that the first player to hop in is a prime mislynch target, and I don't think scum is more likely to spring the trap than a town member.

Voltaire:  I actually meant to vote chairs, but forgot to because I ended my post talking about someone else.  So Vote: Chairs
Logged

UmbrageOfSnow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 167
  • Shuffle iT Username: Umbrageofsnow
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #398 on: July 15, 2013, 05:42:04 pm »

I continue to find Voltaire manifestly the scummiest player.

Why?

You previously voted Jimmmm for his RVS (and his flavor claim suggestion I think?), which fine, weren't particularly strong reasons, but then you switched it over with:
TA's case on Volt is good. Best think we have going for us so far. Stop voting for ash please. I doubt this is scum ash.

TA's case consisted of:
Back-to-back posts by Voltaire saying "Let me clarify this, in case someone calls me on it", and "People said we should vote? Here, I'll vote!" seems a little too crowd-pleasing to me.

At this point you think he's manifestly the scummiest player based on TA's reasoning alone?  That seems like an awfully strong escalation of a pretty slim "case" which hasn't been expanded on at all.

Also worth noting:
nkirbit/liopoil/xxxxx is the scumteam!

Add volt and I'm down!

In post #309, Shraeye asked Mcmcsalot why Volt was on this list, and has yet to be answered.

I hesitate to think of this as scummy, because Mcmcsalot and Robz, if attempting to create a Voltaire wagon out of thin air would be doing the most half-assed job ever, but I'm very curious why either of them are so enthusiastic about this?  Are we all missing something they haven't pointed out?  Either way, I'm leery of things being repeated a lot without justification: seems a good way to make something seem true if we don't look too closely, whether that's deliberate or not.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #399 on: July 15, 2013, 06:12:20 pm »

If I'm the Hider, each night I will take the list of players, in the order listed in the OP, and starting from my own name, count down the number that is next to my flavour name in the second OP, skipping myself, anyone who's dead, and anyone I've already hidden behind, unless that's everyone in which case that will reset. Whichever name I land on, I will hide behind that player.

Okay.  I see there's been some discussion overnight, and there are some questions for me.  I will go back and answer them.  But first.

I continue to see this.  And it continues to infuriate me as what seems like the only town member who actually wants to win this game.  I will lay this out for you, again.

Any plan which chooses a kill target and depends on the full and understandable participation of town players is doomed to fail.

There are any number of reasons.  Here's one:

Say we lynch whoever today, but not me.  Say I am the Hider.  Let's pick a name, Singing Girl.  (I'm 13, and 10).

Day 2 starts.  Here are a few possibles, tell me who's scum:

nkirbit (let's say he's town) and ashersky are dead.
Jimmmmm (let's say he's town) and ashersky are dead.
raerae (let's say she's town) and ashersky are dead.

Spoiler alert!  You can't.  Some arguments: ashersky didn't actually follow the plan, who knows who he hid behind?  ashersky did or didn't follow the plan and hid behind the mafia kill?  ashersky followed the plan and hid behind scum!

So, if I followed the plan, I hid behind either Jimmmmm or nkirbit, right?  Because your ridonkulous plan is unclear as to how one should count.  So did I hide behind scum or not?  But you all have your beliefs about the greatness of the plan and will auto-lynch someone based on it, even though it is flawed.

And here's the rub.  No plan is flawless.  No plan.  Generals, presidents, kings have all made this error.  And SCUM WILL USE YOUR PLAN AGAINST YOU.  That's what scum does.  You all have an expectation now.  You believe something will come of your plan if the Hider dies.  And that belief will be twisted and used against you to your downfall.

Don't want to believe me about the plan because you disagree?  Because you don't like my playstyle as Town?  Then believe me because I am a fucking monster as mafia.  Mafia gives fake plans and ideas to town to force them into things.  Mafia takes things that town says and believes and plays them up to their advantage.  Mafia will own you.  I know, because that's what I would do if I was mafia.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 [16] 17 18 ... 82  All
 

Page created in 0.071 seconds with 16 queries.