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Author Topic: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Mafia Wins  (Read 189058 times)

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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #350 on: July 15, 2013, 10:17:38 am »

I think shraeye's "there is a sentence in your post that doesn't make sense, therefore the post was highly edited, therefore the author is scum" is wrong on multiple levels.

But do you think it's scum!shraeye grasping at straws or town!shraeye being a bit too ambitious?

Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #351 on: July 15, 2013, 10:26:04 am »

I think shraeye's "there is a sentence in your post that doesn't make sense, therefore the post was highly edited, therefore the author is scum" is wrong on multiple levels.

But do you think it's scum!shraeye grasping at straws or town!shraeye being a bit too ambitious?
That is an interesting question. I guess it's better than nothing, painting people in scummy light for less than stellar reasons is suspect behavior, but I won't call shraeye obvscum for it.

People with higher than average chance of being scum in my mind:
ashersky, shraeye, Jimmm

People with lower than average chance of being scum:
Snow, Robz

I want to put Voltaire on the townier category, but can't quite explain it. My earlier question about the liopoil-hunt got dodged, I guess I'm leaning null-townier on him too. Chairs I generally read a bit scummy for the contents of his posts, but his helpful clarifying question got him bit of a pass for this post, I guess.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #352 on: July 15, 2013, 11:52:47 am »

I think shraeye's "there is a sentence in your post that doesn't make sense, therefore the post was highly edited, therefore the author is scum" is wrong on multiple levels.

But do you think it's scum!shraeye grasping at straws or town!shraeye being a bit too ambitious?
That is an interesting question. I guess it's better than nothing, painting people in scummy light for less than stellar reasons is suspect behavior, but I won't call shraeye obvscum for it.

People with higher than average chance of being scum in my mind:
ashersky, shraeye, Jimmm

People with lower than average chance of being scum:
Snow, Robz

I want to put Voltaire on the townier category, but can't quite explain it. My earlier question about the liopoil-hunt got dodged, I guess I'm leaning null-townier on him too. Chairs I generally read a bit scummy for the contents of his posts, but his helpful clarifying question got him bit of a pass for this post, I guess.

I'm convinced that I must just always sound like scum  :-[

I understand the argument regarding why Ash -might- be town, but I still think Ash would almost be our best bet for D1 lynch because being that upset might set his tone for the entirety of the game.  Maybe ash doesn't play that way, I'm not sure, but I feel like that's a bad way to start yourself off.

Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #353 on: July 15, 2013, 11:55:42 am »

I don't think Ash wants to be today's lynch anymore. Do you, ash?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #354 on: July 15, 2013, 11:59:04 am »

If I'm the Hider, each night I will take the list of players, in the order listed in the OP, and starting from my own name, count down the number that is next to my flavour name in the second OP, skipping myself, anyone who's dead, and anyone I've already hidden behind, unless that's everyone in which case that will reset. Whichever name I land on, I will hide behind that player.

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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #355 on: July 15, 2013, 12:05:55 pm »

Several things Ash has done have struck me as off.

First, there's the fact that he's angry at town for directing what hider does, yet he's doing that more than anyone else. He's directly saying that the hider should hide behind their town reads. This increases the probably for hider doubledeaths more than anything else.

He's saying the risk of hiding behind scum reads is that the hider could die without letting us know who they hid behind. But that's the exact point of the plan! I think finding scum is MUCH better than making an IC, personally. The problem is simply that it's so hard to communicate the scum target if the hider dies.

He's saying that "I think this is a bad idea, and since I love ideas like this but hate this one, you all should stop, now." I don't think it's a bad idea, and given that 2/3 of the town agrees, I think Ash's unwillingness to even consider the plan is anti-town at best, and scummy at worst.

Also weird, is that he's brought up my quote from the beginning of the game multiple times, and finds it scummy, yet doesn't make me a scum read when it's really all I've contributed so far today. It's weird that he's going after people for the plan, yet doesn't find the first person to mention a plan scummy.

Finally, I'm not buying the "make me the lynch, screw it" argument. He KNOWS that that lynch isn't going to fly. He knows it. There's absolutely no way we'd lynch on that basis, as people would probably be policy opposed to it. It's a great way to be the first wagon of the day (first wagon of the day almost never goes through), which then allows you to avoid suspicion later. Scum!Ashersky knows that the lynch just doesn't happen, so it's not a risky move.

Vote: Ashersky

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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #356 on: July 15, 2013, 12:30:20 pm »

Finally, I'm not buying the "make me the lynch, screw it" argument. He KNOWS that that lynch isn't going to fly. He knows it. There's absolutely no way we'd lynch on that basis, as people would probably be policy opposed to it. It's a great way to be the first wagon of the day (first wagon of the day almost never goes through), which then allows you to avoid suspicion later. Scum!Ashersky knows that the lynch just doesn't happen, so it's not a risky move.

Vote: Ashersky

I disagree. I mean, ash has done this before, and it has come close to getting him lynched before. He had to think there was a reasonable likelihood of him being lynched on insanity grounds for pursuing this path. What' the upside of all this, if he is scum? I just don't think so. Scum ash is a pretty savvy player. Town ash often finds himself stirring up animosity.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #357 on: July 15, 2013, 12:30:52 pm »

I feel like Eevee and Jimm at least should understand what I am saying. If yuma was in this game he would absolutely back me up on this.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #358 on: July 15, 2013, 12:33:25 pm »

Finally, I'm not buying the "make me the lynch, screw it" argument. He KNOWS that that lynch isn't going to fly. He knows it. There's absolutely no way we'd lynch on that basis, as people would probably be policy opposed to it. It's a great way to be the first wagon of the day (first wagon of the day almost never goes through), which then allows you to avoid suspicion later. Scum!Ashersky knows that the lynch just doesn't happen, so it's not a risky move.

Vote: Ashersky

I disagree. I mean, ash has done this before, and it has come close to getting him lynched before. He had to think there was a reasonable likelihood of him being lynched on insanity grounds for pursuing this path. What' the upside of all this, if he is scum? I just don't think so. Scum ash is a pretty savvy player. Town ash often finds himself stirring up animosity.

But Scum!Ashersky has the knowledge of knowing that he's been lynched for this before, as town, and so it's less likely he'd be viewed as scum and lynched this time, right?
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #359 on: July 15, 2013, 12:38:26 pm »

Finally, I'm not buying the "make me the lynch, screw it" argument. He KNOWS that that lynch isn't going to fly. He knows it. There's absolutely no way we'd lynch on that basis, as people would probably be policy opposed to it. It's a great way to be the first wagon of the day (first wagon of the day almost never goes through), which then allows you to avoid suspicion later. Scum!Ashersky knows that the lynch just doesn't happen, so it's not a risky move.

Vote: Ashersky

I disagree. I mean, ash has done this before, and it has come close to getting him lynched before. He had to think there was a reasonable likelihood of him being lynched on insanity grounds for pursuing this path. What' the upside of all this, if he is scum? I just don't think so. Scum ash is a pretty savvy player. Town ash often finds himself stirring up animosity.
As you said, Ash is a savvy scum player. Do you think it's savvy scum play to only do certain things when you are town?
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #360 on: July 15, 2013, 12:40:23 pm »

I'm fine with Ash's gambits when they are designed to raffle some feathers so we could make better reads or trick scum. Antitown play and being totally unreasonable for no apparent gain is a whole different thing.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #361 on: July 15, 2013, 12:41:24 pm »

Finally, I'm not buying the "make me the lynch, screw it" argument. He KNOWS that that lynch isn't going to fly. He knows it. There's absolutely no way we'd lynch on that basis, as people would probably be policy opposed to it. It's a great way to be the first wagon of the day (first wagon of the day almost never goes through), which then allows you to avoid suspicion later. Scum!Ashersky knows that the lynch just doesn't happen, so it's not a risky move.

Vote: Ashersky

I disagree. I mean, ash has done this before, and it has come close to getting him lynched before. He had to think there was a reasonable likelihood of him being lynched on insanity grounds for pursuing this path. What' the upside of all this, if he is scum? I just don't think so. Scum ash is a pretty savvy player. Town ash often finds himself stirring up animosity.

But Scum!Ashersky has the knowledge of knowing that he's been lynched for this before, as town, and so it's less likely he'd be viewed as scum and lynched this time, right?

He has the knowledge that this behavior is deeply unlike by other players, and stands a strong chance of leading to his demise.

Let me tell you that in Mafia XXIV, which I modded, ashersky was making everyone mad by I think threatening to break a rule and get himself modkilled. In a privte PM to me, the moderator, he explained that he had no intention of doing that, he just wanted to see what sort of reaction he would get. He was town. Ashersky doesn't care if he makes people mad, but he understands how people react to various things that he does, and he IS much less prone to anger other people as scum, precisely because he knows it gets him lynched. Town!ashersky, on the other hand, is sort of running a series of experiments with his weird behavior that he hopes will help find scum, whether or not it gets him lynched.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #362 on: July 15, 2013, 12:41:33 pm »

I believe that's L - 2 on ash. The question we have to ask, I think, is "Would scum ash be this bold?" Whether Town or scum, he knows that loudly disagreeing with the majority and going so far as to dare us to lynch him is going to rub people the wrong way. We've certainly seen this sort of thing before from ash as Town - in Bankers I really wanted to keep going after him because I disagreed with the way he was playing, but in the end I reluctantly concluded that I thought he was Town. So is this a ploy from scum ash wanting us to conclude that he's Town because scum ash wouldn't be so bold, or is this simply Town ash being ash and not really caring if he rubs people the wrong way?

In one sense I think this would be a reasonable lynch regardless. At least if he's Town we can get some reads from him and then move on from this. He's already made it clear that if he's the Hider or the TrackerVig then he'll use those roles poorly, so at least we wouldn't have to worry about that any more.

Anyway, I do think there is a reasonable chance that ash is scum trying to replicate his Town meta, and I think he's the best lynch candidate at the moment.

PPE 6
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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #363 on: July 15, 2013, 12:44:09 pm »

I believe that's L - 2 on ash. The question we have to ask, I think, is "Would scum ash be this bold?" Whether Town or scum, he knows that loudly disagreeing with the majority and going so far as to dare us to lynch him is going to rub people the wrong way. We've certainly seen this sort of thing before from ash as Town - in Bankers I really wanted to keep going after him because I disagreed with the way he was playing, but in the end I reluctantly concluded that I thought he was Town. So is this a ploy from scum ash wanting us to conclude that he's Town because scum ash wouldn't be so bold, or is this simply Town ash being ash and not really caring if he rubs people the wrong way?

In one sense I think this would be a reasonable lynch regardless. At least if he's Town we can get some reads from him and then move on from this. He's already made it clear that if he's the Hider or the TrackerVig then he'll use those roles poorly, so at least we wouldn't have to worry about that any more.

Anyway, I do think there is a reasonable chance that ash is scum trying to replicate his Town meta, and I think he's the best lynch candidate at the moment.

PPE 6

Okay, but more recently than Bankers (which was Mafia XXII, not XXIV, I misspoke) he WAS scum in Mafia something-or-other, along with Eevee and yuma. Ash was NOT crazy. He was highly rational and awesomely devious. He fake claimed a scum result on the town Jailkeeper and got him lynched Day 2. I would expect to see that sort of ash here, not suicidal ash.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #364 on: July 15, 2013, 12:44:52 pm »

I feel like Eevee and Jimm at least should understand what I am saying. If yuma was in this game he would absolutely back me up on this.

I definitely understand. I'm struggling to think of a good example of scum ash though. When was the last notable time he was scum?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #365 on: July 15, 2013, 12:46:17 pm »

Okay, but more recently than Bankers (which was Mafia XXII, not XXIV, I misspoke) he WAS scum in Mafia something-or-other, along with Eevee and yuma. Ash was NOT crazy. He was highly rational and awesomely devious. He fake claimed a scum result on the town Jailkeeper and got him lynched Day 2. I would expect to see that sort of ash here, not suicidal ash.

Hmm. Do you know off the top of your head what game that was? I might have a look over it at some point. For now, unvote.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #366 on: July 15, 2013, 12:47:33 pm »

Okay, but more recently than Bankers (which was Mafia XXII, not XXIV, I misspoke) he WAS scum in Mafia something-or-other, along with Eevee and yuma. Ash was NOT crazy. He was highly rational and awesomely devious. He fake claimed a scum result on the town Jailkeeper and got him lynched Day 2. I would expect to see that sort of ash here, not suicidal ash.

Hmm. Do you know off the top of your head what game that was? I might have a look over it at some point. For now, unvote.

It's Mafia XXV, Mean Girls.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8000.0
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #367 on: July 15, 2013, 12:48:30 pm »

That was mean girls.

Robz, don't you see what a contradiction saying "ash is awesome at scum, so that's why it's easy to tell if he is scum or town" is?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #368 on: July 15, 2013, 12:49:09 pm »

Robz, don't you see what a contradiction saying "ash is awesome at scum, so that's why it's easy to tell if he is scum or town" is?

Point.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #369 on: July 15, 2013, 12:52:33 pm »

That was mean girls.

Robz, don't you see what a contradiction saying "ash is awesome at scum, so that's why it's easy to tell if he is scum or town" is?

Yeah, I get that, I just don't see him faking as more likely.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #370 on: July 15, 2013, 01:03:05 pm »

If he's town, then he's helping scum (because we're all talking about ash).  If he's scum, then this may just have been the best gambit ever because I think we may be headed towards NOT lynching him, and if we don't lynch him for this, what in blue blazes can he do that we will lynch him for?

I'm going to put my money where my mouth is.  That said, I'm going to be miffed if you guys are right and he's just doing crazy things.

Vote: Ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #371 on: July 15, 2013, 01:13:10 pm »

Unvote just to be safe. It's generally nice to announce if you put someone to L-1, chairs.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #372 on: July 15, 2013, 01:13:55 pm »

Unvote just to be safe. It's generally nice to announce if you put someone to L-1, chairs.

I didn't think I had, since Jimmmm unvoted (wasn't he voting for ash when it was L-2?)

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #373 on: July 15, 2013, 01:18:32 pm »

Ha, I was wrong. Vote: ashersky
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yuma

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #374 on: July 15, 2013, 01:20:15 pm »

Vote Count 1.6

Professor Plum and Mrs. Peacock were getting bored waiting by the door in the Hall. yuma hadn't shown up and everyone else was searching the rest of the mansion.

"Maybe yuma already left!" Mrs. Peacock exclaimed. "Maybe he immediately went out the front door and left us here." Professor Plum tried the front door. It wouldn't open. "Locked," he said. "Rats."

"I wonder why he even invited us to this party. Mrs. Peacock said quietly.

"Oh, don't play dumb. You know exactly why we are all here." Professor Plum said with some attitude. "We are all here because yuma is blackmailing us. So what did you do to be blackmailed?"

"Oh, please! I've never heard anything so ridiculous. I mean, nobody could blackmail me. My life is an open book. I've never done anything wrong" she said.

And right then both Mrs. Peacock and Professor Plum nearly jumped out of their skins as a loud shriek flew through the air of the mansion.

Jimmmmm (1): Voltaire
Robz (1): chairs
liopoil (2): raerae, shraeye
ashersky (5): Snow, ashersky, TA, chairs, Eevee
Voltaire (1): Robz

Not voting: (4) liopoil, nkirbit, mcmcsalot, Jimmmm

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day1 Ends in 10 days. July 22nd at 10:30 a.m. forum time.
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