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[Twistedarcher]

If anyone else but Ash counterclaims, I am more than happy to be the lynch today, providing that the remaining players promise to lynch Ashersky and the counterclaimer the next two days after my flip is revealed.

[ashersky]

Who did you investigate N1 and N2?

While the possibility remains that we will no-lynch today, I will not reveal whether I am the psychologist or the detective.

Also, stupid.  If you aren't lying, you are dying tonight.  Not worth the risk to scum.  Better to share info, no?

If you are scum, and we no-lynch tonight and I die and flip PR, which I will, you will be the lynch the next day.

Scum know I am the PR. If you are scum, which I am sure that you are, you know that you killing me would mean your death the next day. You would have a greater shot of keeping me alive, and trying to out-argue me, to avoid the lynch on D4.

Basically, if I flip PR, it's your death. You don't want to die, so you want to keep my flip hidden, since you now KNOW I am the PR. I will not be nightkilled until after you have been lynched, then I'm the auto-NK the next day.

If that's the case, why do I want to lynch you today?

Scum will trade 1 for 1 to get rid of an investigative PR.  Why would I care if I'm lynched tomorrow if I got to kill you tonight?  Ok trade.

You fake claimed to try to get the real PR to claim.  It won't work, though.  Not doing it.

[ashersky]

Scenarios:

No Lynch D3:

TA is honest, NK'ed N3 and we get no info from what turns out to be a wasted PR
TA is lying, random townie is NK'ed, he pushes my lynch again tomorrow
TA is honest but scum risks it, random townie is NK'ed, he pushes my lynch again tomorrow

Ash Lynch D3:

TA is honest, NK'ed N3...
TA is lying, random townie is NK'ed, TA auto-lynch D4
TA is honest, scum risks it, random townie is NK'ed, TA auto-lynched D4

TA Lynch D3:

TA is honest, died a waste of a PR.  Random townie is NK'ed, ash is auto-mislynched D4
TA is lying, town rejoices.



I think TA lynch works out the best no matter what, based on above.

[Twistedarcher]

Because you had no idea that I was the PR. You thought I was just a VT, and you had no idea what you were walking into.

Now, you're in a position where, in order to get people to continue to think I'm scummy, your partner would need to claim. Problem is, if your partner counterclaims, and I'm believed, bam, we've found the scum team. Therefore, I don't think your partner will claim.

Now, you have probably reasoned this out, as well. It's foolish for your partner to claim to cover your tracks. They won't do it. They need to stay hidden. So you're trying to now paint me as scummy, without a counterclaim even necessary.

If no counterclaim comes, I can't believe you would want to lynch me. If you WERE a VT, why wouldn't you believe my claim? If you WERE a VT, and no counterclaim came, you would believe that I'm the PR, right? Yet you are stating, without even waiting to see if a claim comes, that I am still scum, and that I should still be lynched. You are not a VT in this position. You are a scum.

[Twistedarcher]

Scenarios:

No Lynch D3:

TA is honest, NK'ed N3 and we get no info from what turns out to be a wasted PR
TA is lying, random townie is NK'ed, he pushes my lynch again tomorrow
TA is honest but scum risks it, random townie is NK'ed, he pushes my lynch again tomorrow

Ash Lynch D3:

TA is honest, NK'ed N3...
TA is lying, random townie is NK'ed, TA auto-lynch D4
TA is honest, scum risks it, random townie is NK'ed, TA auto-lynched D4

TA Lynch D3:

TA is honest, died a waste of a PR.  Random townie is NK'ed, ash is auto-mislynched D4
TA is lying, town rejoices.



I think TA lynch works out the best no matter what, based on above.

Well, yes, but these all have a major, false, assumption: Ashersky is town. Which is an untrue assumption.

Of course a TA lynch will be the best result when you assume that AShersky is town!

[Eevee]

Agreed, ash's analysis is super flawed, we don't know if he is town or not.

I'm in favor of no lynching with as little discussion as possible and no counter claims.

[ashersky]

Agreed, ash's analysis is super flawed, we don't know if he is town or not.

I'm in favor of no lynching with as little discussion as possible and no counter claims.

Why?  If you believe TA, he dies tonight.  If he lives, do we lynch him tomorrow?

[ashersky]

I will self vote before supporting a no lynch.

[ashersky]

I will self vote before supporting a no lynch.

To be clear, the reason for this is based on my analysis.  I know I am town, the rest of you don't, I get it.  But I know that, knowing my own alignment, it is best for Town to lynch today, even if it is me.

If we lynch me:

You lose a member of town, but you gain a shit-ton of knowledge.  You know I was not lying about anything.  You know you can't trust a word that TA has typed all game.  You know he played a gambit by attacking me since D1.  You know who to lynch on D4.

If we no lynch:

We gain nothing but a dead townie who gives us no information, and we're right back to this point again on D4.



Remember, if I'm lying scum, I am gaining nothing from this.  If I flip scum, none of this works, so it is a terrible gambit to make.

If TA is town, and if he is the PR, he's misplayed this terribly.  Why did he claim?  Because drunk raerae was coming at him?  Really?  No reason to out himself there.  This reeks of my fakeclaim in Mean Girls -- the timing is so off, it has to be fake.

[Eevee]

I don't want to give scum any extra information as to who to kill.

Two possible scenarios.
TA is town and scum knows he is the pr and would or wouldn't kill him, we don't know and wouldn't want to tell them if we'd believe a counterclaim tomorrow because that'd just tell them what to do.

TA is scum and there is a real pr somewhere. Scum has to shoot blindly today, and we'll have to make a decision tomorrow. If the real pr claims, scum can choose whether to shoot the pr or a random townie, so that's strictly worse than having them forced to shoot randomly.

If both claimants have results when claiming, we can make better decisions about who to lynch. Lets just deal all of this tomorrow.

[ashersky]

There are still players who haven't posted that could counterclaim.  I think I agree they should not.

We should lynch TA anyway.  Absolute worst case, he's telling the truth, and yet has zero useful info and dies tonight.  Best case, we lynch scum.  Best way forward for sure.

[Eevee]

Lynching a claimed pr (a possible IC if no one counterclaims) would be lol bad.

[ashersky]

Lynching a claimed pr (a possible IC if no one counterclaims) would be lol bad.

Which is it, he should be counterclaimed if he's lying, or he shouldn't?  Because No Lynch and waiting does not confirm TA's claim, or make him an IC.  It makes him dead or scum.

[ashersky]

If I were the real psychologist, I would not counterclaim today and instead agree that his lynch was the best course of action.

[yuma]

Vote Count 3.8

"What did yuma say?" asked Mr. Boddy.

"He only said, 'Tell them that yuma says "I know what you did last summer."' Any idea what that means?"

"No!" shouted everyone.

Neither did I. But yuma didn't really say that. That just sounded more dramatic. What yuma did say was that he was safe and that everything was proceeding to plan. He expected to be back in the next few hours, with the police!

No lynch: (4) liopoil, Jimmmmmm, mcmc, Eevee (L-1)
TA: (2) ashersky, raerae
ashersky: (1) TA

Not voting: (1) chairs

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day3 is August 6 at 2 pm forum time.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay, I am not going to counterclaim/not claim.

I am going to say two things with explanations to follow.

1) TA's actions make no sense.
2) No lynch is still our best option.

1A) I am going to pretend I am TA and he is the town PR. TA believes ash is scum with huge certainty which I understands, but as I said before and he did, even with 99% certainty no lynx is better. Chairs agrees, eevee agrees, even ash agreed(with no lynch being a okay idea). So if I am TA, the best thing to do in shut up, no lynch.

1B) TA should care about town winning, not him living. Honestly if I am TA I wait for us to no lynch, investigate raerae who is going to look really bad if ash flips scum(which TA is certain he will) and put town in the best position.

1C) Instead TA claims for ZERO REASON, and suspect both ash and raerae simply for them suspecting him...which a vt could do because they have no idea of your alignment either.

2A) If TA is the town PR, lynching or no lynching today still ends with the same chance of him dying at night. No lynching was NOT just to give our PR another chance no lynching today gives us better odds later on. We get the same amount of town directed lynches but have to chose for less people.

I agree with eevee, sorry if I talked too much, no lynch is the best option right now.

[liopoil]

woah, just caught up. wish I had been online yesterday.

Vote: TwistedArcher

this is what we're doing today. Everyone sheep me! no way is he town.

[liopoil]

no more needs to be said, I hope.

[Eevee]

Meh, I'm not sure who to believe here. With that in mind, can't we just postpone the decision to tomorrow? Is there any reason not to?

[chairs]

vote: twistedarcher.

I think the claim was premature and designed to out the real PR.

I think if you flip PR, we lynch liopoil and ashersky, probably.

[Eevee]

Guys, why not wait until tomorrow?

[Eevee]

TA is at L-1 now..

[ashersky]

Guys, why not wait until tomorrow?

Why wait?  You are tying yourself to TA even more.

[ashersky]

vote: twistedarcher.

I think the claim was premature and designed to out the real PR.

I think if you flip PR, we lynch liopoil and ashersky, probably.

Agreed.

[Twistedarcher]

woah, just caught up. wish I had been online yesterday.

Vote: TwistedArcher

this is what we're doing today. Everyone sheep me! no way is he town.

So you are claiming PR here?

I want to make this extra-super certain for when I flip PR.