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[sudgy]

I still dont see any concrete information we would get from your flip. None! I would be able to deduct you from my suspect pool, but that holds true for any other lynch.

I have hard time believing you could actually want to be the lynch as town, so your self-vote reads insincere to me. Scum is insincere. I don't claim to KNOW you are scum, I was pretty darn sure in helsinki mafia and you were town. I dont think your actions today are helping us find the real scum if you are town, though.

Lurkers aren't helping (Insom?).  I'd lean toward lynching there.

I think scum may have killed yuma to leave only one clear mislynch to work toward today (me).

Separately, I really don't think we should be going for the information lynch today.  It's too late in the game for that.  We really should be trying to lynch mafia.  Lynching me for information is not optimal.

Yeah, because scum LOVE to make it more likely they'll get lynched.

[Jimmmmm]

The only scenario that makes any sense at the moment is that you're trying too hard to be Towny, self-sacrificial ashersky. This is not the situation for a Townie to be falling on his sword. And saying "Ask Eevee" is a ludicrous defense. If Eevee is Town, then suggesting lynching you is something that he believes has a relatively good chance of helping Town. If you're Town, then suggesting lynching yourself is something that you know will be bad for Town. So unless you can give a very good reason why it would be good for Town, you seem to be trying too hard.

Again, if you say so.  You are wrong, and you've seen others be wrong about me in the same ways as a fellow player and a mod.  Think about it.

Also, reading your bolded sentence, you seem to be concurring with the idea that lynching town today is a good idea.  So you are being extremely hypocritical to call me out for it when you yourself say "suggesting lynching you is something that he believes has a relative good chance of helping Town" instead of "...he believes has a relatively good chance of hitting scum."

Would you like me to try less hard to help town?  That's backwards to me.

What the heck? What am I wrong about? What's the distinction between hitting scum and helping Town? It's plausible that in voting for you Eevee is trying to hit scum and therefore help Town. If you are Town, then you are voting for a confirmed (to you) Townie instead of trying to save said Townie, and that is bad play.

Read the sentence after the bolded sentence. "If you're Town, then suggesting lynching yourself is something that you know will be bad for Town." It's impossible for anyone reading my post critically to conclude that I think we should lynch a Townie today. If you're Town, I would like you get your vote off yourself and try to lynch scum. Anything less than that is extremely unhelpful.

[Eevee]

The only scenario that makes any sense at the moment is that you're trying too hard to be Towny, self-sacrificial ashersky. This is not the situation for a Townie to be falling on his sword. And saying "Ask Eevee" is a ludicrous defense. If Eevee is Town, then suggesting lynching you is something that he believes has a relatively good chance of helping Town. If you're Town, then suggesting lynching yourself is something that you know will be bad for Town. So unless you can give a very good reason why it would be good for Town, you seem to be trying too hard.

Again, if you say so.  You are wrong, and you've seen others be wrong about me in the same ways as a fellow player and a mod.  Think about it.

Also, reading your bolded sentence, you seem to be concurring with the idea that lynching town today is a good idea.  So you are being extremely hypocritical to call me out for it when you yourself say "suggesting lynching you is something that he believes has a relative good chance of helping Town" instead of "...he believes has a relatively good chance of hitting scum."

Would you like me to try less hard to help town?  That's backwards to me.

What the heck? What am I wrong about? What's the distinction between hitting scum and helping Town? It's plausible that in voting for you Eevee is trying to hit scum and therefore help Town. If you are Town, then you are voting for a confirmed (to you) Townie instead of trying to save said Townie, and that is bad play.

Read the sentence after the bolded sentence. "If you're Town, then suggesting lynching yourself is something that you know will be bad for Town." It's impossible for anyone reading my post critically to conclude that I think we should lynch a Townie today. If you're Town, I would like you get your vote off yourself and try to lynch scum. Anything less than that is extremely unhelpful.

I don't think plausible is the word you are looking for. Try obvious.

.. other than that, +1 obviously. I dont think ashersky disagrees either, that's why his behaviour is scummy in my opinion. Just seems so clear-cut to me.

[Jimmmmm]

Unless you're scum of course, in which case you're trying to help scum.

[ashersky]

Read the sentence after the bolded sentence. "If you're Town, then suggesting lynching yourself is something that you know will be bad for Town." It's impossible for anyone reading my post critically to conclude that I think we should lynch a Townie today. If you're Town, I would like you get your vote off yourself and try to lynch scum. Anything less than that is extremely unhelpful.

No one else is even trying to find scum.  They're just like "oh look, ash is scummy again."  I'm the one looking for wagon analysis.  I'm the one asking questions about what we should be looking at (i.e., why kill yuma?).  I'm the only one scum hunting.  Everyone else is ash hunting.

[Jimmmmm]

And yet you're voting for yourself and being extremely scummy.

[Jimmmmm]

Remind me, why are you voting for yourself?

[ashersky]

Remind me, why are you voting for yourself?

Eevee said I was scummy if I didn't.

Eevee also said he wants to control my vote.

Why does no one find Eevee scummy?

[ashersky]

And yet you're voting for yourself and being extremely scummy.

Extremely scummy is relative.  I'm no different than me in any other game.  See MnM and Ozle II for examples.

[Jimmmmm]

Right, so you admit that you're doing it for Towncred.

[Jimmmmm]

And yet you're voting for yourself and being extremely scummy.

Extremely scummy is relative.  I'm no different than me in any other game.  See MnM and Ozle II for examples.

Okay. Well don't complain about the times you're mislynched then. If you're Town and you get lynched today, you've very much brought it upon yourself.

[ashersky]

I think we forgot this, but yuma claimed to roleblock raerae at the start of D4.  We can assume truth there now.

I don't think that clears raerae, since there's more than one scum, but it needs reminded.

[ashersky]

And yet you're voting for yourself and being extremely scummy.

Extremely scummy is relative.  I'm no different than me in any other game.  See MnM and Ozle II for examples.

Okay. Well don't complain about the times you're mislynched then. If you're Town and you get lynched today, you've very much brought it upon yourself.

Very much?  No.  1/5, I guess, if my vote remains on me.  But it'll be others who lynch me.

Look, my style of playing town may not match yours, or yuma's, or whoever.  But it's a town style, and its valid.  You (this is the royal you, so basically everyone) need to separate your "I actually don't like ashersky the person" from your "ashersky is playing this game in a way I don't like" and think about this from the game perspective.  You all "know" me insofar as these games go.  I play town differently, but I definitely play town to win.  We may get there different ways, but hey, in games where the rest of town have gone against my style/suggestions, town have lost.

[ashersky]

Very much?  No.  1/5, I guess, if my vote remains on me.  But it'll be others who lynch me.

Look, my style of playing town may not match yours, or yuma's, or whoever.  But it's a town style, and its valid.  You (this is the royal you, so basically everyone) need to separate your "I actually don't like ashersky the person" from your "ashersky is playing this game in a way I don't like" and think about this from the game perspective.  You all "know" me insofar as these games go.  I play town differently, but I definitely play town to win.  We may get there different ways, but hey, in games where the rest of town have gone against my style/suggestions, town have lost.

tldr, quit trying to blame me for when you mislynch town ash, because you know deep down in your hearts that I am town.

[ashersky]

Oh, and can the real Oracle user please claim now?  Unless scum really bought it to keep it out of our hands.

[Eevee]

Very much?  No.  1/5, I guess, if my vote remains on me.  But it'll be others who lynch me.

Look, my style of playing town may not match yours, or yuma's, or whoever.  But it's a town style, and its valid.  You (this is the royal you, so basically everyone) need to separate your "I actually don't like ashersky the person" from your "ashersky is playing this game in a way I don't like" and think about this from the game perspective.  You all "know" me insofar as these games go.  I play town differently, but I definitely play town to win.  We may get there different ways, but hey, in games where the rest of town have gone against my style/suggestions, town have lost.

tldr, quit trying to blame me for when you mislynch town ash, because you know deep down in your hearts that I am town.

I really really dont. Admittedly eciding to do weird stuff "because that's who town ash is" is not a defense I'm finding convincing.

[Jimmmmm]

And yet you're voting for yourself and being extremely scummy.

Extremely scummy is relative.  I'm no different than me in any other game.  See MnM and Ozle II for examples.

Okay. Well don't complain about the times you're mislynched then. If you're Town and you get lynched today, you've very much brought it upon yourself.

Very much?  No.  1/5, I guess, if my vote remains on me.  But it'll be others who lynch me.

Look, my style of playing town may not match yours, or yuma's, or whoever.  But it's a town style, and its valid.  You (this is the royal you, so basically everyone) need to separate your "I actually don't like ashersky the person" from your "ashersky is playing this game in a way I don't like" and think about this from the game perspective.  You all "know" me insofar as these games go.  I play town differently, but I definitely play town to win.  We may get there different ways, but hey, in games where the rest of town have gone against my style/suggestions, town have lost.

I have no problem with ash the person. I have a problem with someone who's claiming to be on my team working against my win condition.

[Jimmmmm]

Let's face it, mislynching today would be pretty disastrous for Town. We'd have to survive two lylos and will have an average of 2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15 chance of winning. But lynching scum today would not be that bad for scum, who would still have an average of 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 chance of winning. And scum knows if we're doing better or worse than average since they know if we're close to lynching one of them. So I think it's much more likely that scum would be willing to self-sacrifice for their team than Town.

[Eevee]

Ash, I'm sad if you think I have a problem with you as a person, as that's absolutely not true. You are great! I know we have some differing opinions regarding the game of mafia, but I do love playing these games with you. You definitely make them more interesting!

[ashersky]

Let's face it, mislynching today would be pretty disastrous for Town. We'd have to survive two lylos and will have an average of 2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15 chance of winning. But lynching scum today would not be that bad for scum, who would still have an average of 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 chance of winning. And scum knows if we're doing better or worse than average since they know if we're close to lynching one of them. So I think it's much more likely that scum would be willing to self-sacrifice for their team than Town.

This is compelling.  I suck at math, so I'll just trust it is correct.

unvote

Still, we need to lynch someone today.  Does scum still have over a 50 percent chance of winning even if they lose another player today?  That seems really high.

[ashersky]

I don't see how Insomniac disproves it, in fact Insomniac would only disprove it if he was scum and didn't get money for being on a lynch, something we couldn't prove until the game was over since we can't trust a scum player. I admit my theory is pretty speculative, but it's a possible explanation for why you might think that. My vote is mostly for your scummy voting record, and the fact that you're still alive when you're clearly leading town to our detriment. This might have been a scum slip and it might not have been, but you are scummy, one of the scummiest players now in my opinion. I am comfortable voting for you.

You are right about the point about Insomniac.

However there is a line in your quote I would like to discuss with you...

Why does scum perform night kills?

Scum generally tries to use its night kills to either kill power roles or to eliminate players who are perceived as town to be IC or close to it, thereby keeping up the number of players who could potentially be lynched in future days.

I am far from being considered an IC in this game--in fact I am rarely considered that, it seems that scum usually sees me as a potential lynch in a later day because of my reputation for being tricksy... I dont' mind this stereotype because it means I generally get to live longer in games, which is cool!

So why would scum kill me? Why would they kill me when I am making their job easier by being far from pro-town in this game? They wouldn't. They would see me as a potential mislynch down the road.

So yes I agree that you can and probably should think I am scummy from my voting record and bad play, but to think me scummy because I am still alive is very counter intuitive.

I think this exchange from D4 is important.

[ashersky]

sudgy, was anything said in the captured folks QT that would have given Arch a hint as to the Oracle?  We were discussing possibilities yesterday.

Note Arch selected Jimmmmm and raerae to clear with his fake claim.  Does scum name a partner?  Both partners?

[Jimmmmm]

Let's face it, mislynching today would be pretty disastrous for Town. We'd have to survive two lylos and will have an average of 2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15 chance of winning. But lynching scum today would not be that bad for scum, who would still have an average of 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 chance of winning. And scum knows if we're doing better or worse than average since they know if we're close to lynching one of them. So I think it's much more likely that scum would be willing to self-sacrifice for their team than Town.

This is compelling.  I suck at math, so I'll just trust it is correct.

unvote

Still, we need to lynch someone today.  Does scum still have over a 50 percent chance of winning even if they lose another player today?  That seems really high.

Yep. If we lynch scum today, the remaining scum will have an 80% chance of surviving tomorrow and then a 66.67% chance of surviving lylo for the win. Multiply these together and you get scum having a 53.33% chance of winning if we lynch one of them today. But in reality it will be higher or lower depending on how close the Townies are to finding the remaining scum, and only scum know that.

[ashersky]

Let's face it, mislynching today would be pretty disastrous for Town. We'd have to survive two lylos and will have an average of 2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15 chance of winning. But lynching scum today would not be that bad for scum, who would still have an average of 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 chance of winning. And scum knows if we're doing better or worse than average since they know if we're close to lynching one of them. So I think it's much more likely that scum would be willing to self-sacrifice for their team than Town.

This is compelling.  I suck at math, so I'll just trust it is correct.

unvote

Still, we need to lynch someone today.  Does scum still have over a 50 percent chance of winning even if they lose another player today?  That seems really high.

Yep. If we lynch scum today, the remaining scum will have an 80% chance of surviving tomorrow and then a 66.67% chance of surviving lylo for the win. Multiply these together and you get scum having a 53.33% chance of winning if we lynch one of them today. But in reality it will be higher or lower depending on how close the Townies are to finding the remaining scum, and only scum know that.

Let's assume we all accept IC Sudgy.

So we're looking at 2/6 + 1 IC today, 1/5 tomorrow (if we lynch scum today).  Any town NOT named sudgy has a 2/5 chance in catching scum, which isn't terrible.

[Eevee]

sudgy, was anything said in the captured folks QT that would have given Arch a hint as to the Oracle?  We were discussing possibilities yesterday.

Note Arch selected Jimmmmm and raerae to clear with his fake claim.  Does scum name a partner?  Both partners?

I would be VERY surprised if he named both partners. No idea if it's 0 or 1.

Seems more and more likely scum has the oracle, which is sad.