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Author Topic: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Witches Win!  (Read 61256 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #300 on: April 24, 2013, 01:06:23 pm »

Oh brother, you are scum shraeye's dupe right now.

He had no idea I would have taken this stance post night actions.

When is the next deadline. You say Jimm won't be around why is that?

Mail-mi, Jimm, efhw need to get here soon and claim pr. In the meantime I suggest we continue deciding who is scum there.

I think robz/efhw/mail-mi are scummy Jimm did some typical town Jimm stuff early. I do think efhw is scummy due to how the end of day went down.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #301 on: April 24, 2013, 01:10:17 pm »

Shoot me, lynch me, do whatever you want. This is the stupidest game ever.

Don't play it then, not like you were around to help it at deadline.

Truly hoping you are scum attempting to make me snap vig you, so most definitely my lynch target.

You understand if you are town the best move is to continue to convince me of scum!shraeye's motives and not just give up. I've made quote a few posts to argue against your reasoning and you have yet to respond with anything that is believable to me.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

shraeye

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #302 on: April 24, 2013, 01:11:42 pm »

I think robz/efhw/mail-mi are scummy Jimm did some typical town Jimm stuff early. I do think efhw is scummy due to how the end of day went down.

EFHW's stance on RVS made me think town, and her response why she felt that way.  She seemed genuinely worried about giving scum an easy case to pin on her.  I don't see what you see regarding the end-of-day stuff.

I am unable to assess jimmmm/mail-mi until they come back.  could you explain jimmm's town stuff to me?
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Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #303 on: April 24, 2013, 01:11:51 pm »

And obviously he'd much rather have you alive, having won your trust, so that you can kill some townies. He would rather have you alive, on his side, shooting townies. He prefers that to lynching you, yes, absolutely.
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shraeye

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #304 on: April 24, 2013, 01:12:20 pm »

you are scum attempting to make me snap vig you

This is my current thought.  Don't snap-vig anyone, please.
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Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #305 on: April 24, 2013, 01:13:22 pm »

Oh brother, you are scum shraeye's dupe right now.

He had no idea I would have taken this stance post night actions.


He's played you like a fiddle, and you are being unbelievably gullible.
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Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #306 on: April 24, 2013, 01:13:38 pm »

you are scum attempting to make me snap vig you

This is my current thought.  Don't snap-vig anyone, please.

Your puppet master agrees!
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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #307 on: April 24, 2013, 01:17:15 pm »

I think robz/efhw/mail-mi are scummy Jimm did some typical town Jimm stuff early. I do think efhw is scummy due to how the end of day went down.

EFHW's stance on RVS made me think town, and her response why she felt that way.  She seemed genuinely worried about giving scum an easy case to pin on her.  I don't see what you see regarding the end-of-day stuff.

I am unable to assess jimmmm/mail-mi until they come back.  could you explain jimmm's town stuff to me?

If you read Jimm's rvs and the rvs he has been part of for the past few games he rapid votes multiple people trying to get out of rvs as town, like almost identical opening posts in his town games.

At the end efhw left her vote on me when she said she saw the case on eevee that it had merit. i also asked her directy why she voted for me because she didnt really give a reason and i wanted to try and convince her i was town(i still had time to talk my way out of the lynch) but then she just left with 30 min to deadline.

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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #308 on: April 24, 2013, 01:18:18 pm »

you are scum attempting to make me snap vig you

This is my current thought.  Don't snap-vig anyone, please.

Your puppet master agrees!

Because I was TOTALY GOING TO before he said that... oh wait I said you were trying to get me to snap vig, since when is agreeing with someone being a puppet master.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #309 on: April 24, 2013, 01:23:05 pm »

And obviously he'd much rather have you alive, having won your trust, so that you can kill some townies. He would rather have you alive, on his side, shooting townies. He prefers that to lynching you, yes, absolutely.
I said he had no way of knowing I would take this stance after the lynch went through. I didn't say if you guys save me you automatically town. I said if your town you need to help spare me but that doesn't mean I would make them Ic's post lynch.

Also you keep saying he wants me shooting townies as I showed in my post which you didn't acknowledge even hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

shraeye

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #310 on: April 24, 2013, 01:25:57 pm »

I think robz/efhw/mail-mi are scummy Jimm did some typical town Jimm stuff early. I do think efhw is scummy due to how the end of day went down.

EFHW's stance on RVS made me think town, and her response why she felt that way.  She seemed genuinely worried about giving scum an easy case to pin on her.  I don't see what you see regarding the end-of-day stuff.

I am unable to assess jimmmm/mail-mi until they come back.  could you explain jimmm's town stuff to me?

If you read Jimm's rvs and the rvs he has been part of for the past few games he rapid votes multiple people trying to get out of rvs as town, like almost identical opening posts in his town games.

Hmm, do you have any examples of him not doing this when he was scum?  I can't remember any games where Jimmm was scum, recent or not.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 1 Start
« Reply #311 on: April 24, 2013, 01:26:40 pm »


Deadline is 11am on the 25th so everyone knows, this game has 24 hour deadljnes(I'm assuming insom is going of each deadline not the day start
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #312 on: April 24, 2013, 01:27:11 pm »

@shraeye I thought I found one but I will double check.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #313 on: April 24, 2013, 01:30:46 pm »

And obviously he'd much rather have you alive, having won your trust, so that you can kill some townies. He would rather have you alive, on his side, shooting townies. He prefers that to lynching you, yes, absolutely.
I said he had no way of knowing I would take this stance after the lynch went through. I didn't say if you guys save me you automatically town. I said if your town you need to help spare me but that doesn't mean I would make them Ic's post lynch.

Also you keep saying he wants me shooting townies as I showed in my post which you didn't acknowledge even hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum.

Yes, he could have reasonably assumed saving you would be such a pro-town thing to do he would get a free pass from you. God knows we are awarding enough free passes around here.

Hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum, but brings us precipitously closer to losing the game. Do you realize that if you don't shoot and we mislynch, we are in MYLO? We have 7 people left now. If you shoot wrong and we lynch wrong, we lose before we even see Day 3.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #314 on: April 24, 2013, 01:34:27 pm »

And obviously he'd much rather have you alive, having won your trust, so that you can kill some townies. He would rather have you alive, on his side, shooting townies. He prefers that to lynching you, yes, absolutely.
I said he had no way of knowing I would take this stance after the lynch went through. I didn't say if you guys save me you automatically town. I said if your town you need to help spare me but that doesn't mean I would make them Ic's post lynch.

Also you keep saying he wants me shooting townies as I showed in my post which you didn't acknowledge even hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum.

Yes, he could have reasonably assumed saving you would be such a pro-town thing to do he would get a free pass from you. God knows we are awarding enough free passes around here.

Hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum, but brings us precipitously closer to losing the game. Do you realize that if you don't shoot and we mislynch, we are in MYLO? We have 7 people left now. If you shoot wrong and we lynch wrong, we lose before we even see Day 3.

Yes if I shoot wrong and we lynch wrong we are at 3/2 tomorrow, which is mylo. If I don't shoot and we lynch wrong we are at 4/2 oh lookie also mylo....... Except we have worse chances of finding scum. So you see how no matter who I shoot shooting increases our chances.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #315 on: April 24, 2013, 01:39:03 pm »

And obviously he'd much rather have you alive, having won your trust, so that you can kill some townies. He would rather have you alive, on his side, shooting townies. He prefers that to lynching you, yes, absolutely.
I said he had no way of knowing I would take this stance after the lynch went through. I didn't say if you guys save me you automatically town. I said if your town you need to help spare me but that doesn't mean I would make them Ic's post lynch.

Also you keep saying he wants me shooting townies as I showed in my post which you didn't acknowledge even hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum.

Yes, he could have reasonably assumed saving you would be such a pro-town thing to do he would get a free pass from you. God knows we are awarding enough free passes around here.

Hitting a townie with the vig improves our chance of lynching scum, but brings us precipitously closer to losing the game. Do you realize that if you don't shoot and we mislynch, we are in MYLO? We have 7 people left now. If you shoot wrong and we lynch wrong, we lose before we even see Day 3.

Yes if I shoot wrong and we lynch wrong we are at 3/2 tomorrow, which is mylo. If I don't shoot and we lynch wrong we are at 4/2 oh lookie also mylo....... Except we have worse chances of finding scum. So you see how no matter who I shoot shooting increases our chances.

False!!! False!!! If you shoot wrong and we lynch wrong WE ALREADY LOSE, no mylo tomorrow. You shoot wrong, 6 people left, we lynch wrong, 5 people left, scum shoot, 4 people left and half scum, game over.
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Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #316 on: April 24, 2013, 01:46:15 pm »

Well? Do you see that, bro? Do you see why shraeye wants to manipulate you into a misfire?
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Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #317 on: April 24, 2013, 01:47:50 pm »

Look, I am convinced beyond any reasonable doubt that it's mail-mi and shraeye. So here, go ahead, shoot one of them. If I'm wrong (I'm not), go ahead and lynch me.
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shraeye

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #318 on: April 24, 2013, 01:51:58 pm »

It looks like this to me (forgetting for a moment that there are two fools):

shoot wrong, lynch wrong = 2v2 on day 3.  at best we have 2 and 2 at lynches, hidden democracy also split.  I think that results in no lynch and a loss?

shoot wrong, lynch right = mylo on day 3, 3 town and 1 scum

shoot right, lynch wrong = lylo on day 3; 2 town and 1 scum.

shoot right, lynch right = win

But what if mcmcsalot holds back the shot (hence losing it forever)

lynch wrong day 2, wrong day3 = scum win

lynch right day 2, wrong day3 = 2 town, 1 scum lylo

lynch wrong day2 right day3 = 2 town, 1 scum lylo

lynch right day2, right day3 = win

Conclusion
if we think of mcmcs vig-shot as another lynch, these scenarios mirror eachotehr perfectly, so we don't win or lose anything on the mylo/lylo front.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #319 on: April 24, 2013, 01:56:03 pm »

Look, I am convinced beyond any reasonable doubt that it's mail-mi and shraeye. So here, go ahead, shoot one of them. If I'm wrong (I'm not), go ahead and lynch me.

You are correct,  I was wrong in my math. This does mean keeping me is a smart choice and makes it more likely shraeye is scum. There is a reason I am not snap vigging anyone. I can vig town and then we just need to lynch scum. So I still think we need to have the other or claim and get more people talking. Regardless of the v/la mail-mi is lurking too much for a blitz game so we will see how things go as the day moves on.

There is nothing left productive to be said from me/shraeye/robz but I'm glad you calmed down and explained things to me.

So why are you so sure shraeye/mail-mi are scum. I mean even if mail-mi used that as a ploy clearly eevee was fooled into protecting him who's to say shraeye isn't.

Also is mail-mi being Vla for a day obviously a scum tactic, or could he be telling the truth. I mean it certainly is not so certain.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #320 on: April 24, 2013, 01:56:56 pm »

By the way, I am NOT saying that mcmc shouldn't shoot. I was just pushing back against the idea that there is nothing to lose from shooting, or that shooting is good even if it hits town.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #321 on: April 24, 2013, 02:14:21 pm »

Okay here we go.

Shooting(suicide)
5/2 shoot wrong 4/2 lynch wrong 2/2 we lose
5/2 shoot wrong 4/2 lynch right 3/1 mylo
5/2 shoot right 5/1(4/1) lynch wrong 3/1(2/1) mylo

Not shooting
5/2 lynch wrong 3/2 mylo
5/2 lynch right 4/1 lynch wrong 2/1 mylo

No matter what if we lynch wrong today we are at mylo. If I shoot wrong as well we lose.

The best cases are if we lynch right and lynch wrong.
If I shoot right and blow up and lynch wrong.

If I shoot right and don't blow up its actually bad for us.
Pretty sure shooting is a bad idea.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #322 on: April 24, 2013, 02:17:46 pm »

Yep if I shoot right and don't die we are at 5/1 and a wrong lynch is 3/1
If we just lynch that person we are at 4/2 and then a wrong lynch is 2/1 much better.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Jimmmmm

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #323 on: April 24, 2013, 02:20:24 pm »

Okay, I'm here. Still at work, but it's 4am so there's not a lot happening. I knew deadline was coming up and I really wanted to have some sort of contribution, but that was during the busy part of the night and I just couldn't give this game priority over work that I had to do.

I'm always very uneasy about calling anyone "confirmed" Town when they haven't been. I believe mcmc is Town, and will continue to believe so unless we get two other Fool claims. But mcmc's claim came 3 minutes before the thread was locked. If scum was around at that point in time they had to make a snap decision. And I'm sure they would have wanted to kill mcmc. But only 2 possible scum posted after mcmc's claim, and if mcmc was killed overnight they would have received a heck of a lot of scrutiny. I mean yeah, scum might have killed mcmc in that situation. But that's certainly a long way from certain. So maybe they get Town points for that. But I'm certainly not treating them as confirmed Town, and if I think they're scum, that one thing isn't going to sway me from lynching them.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: ZM12: Loco!...Like the Motive That Betrayed Me - Day 2 Start
« Reply #324 on: April 24, 2013, 02:21:01 pm »

Shooting wrong is 4/2 mylo then 2/1 mylo
Lynching wrong is 3/2 mylo then 2/1 mylo
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)
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