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[yuma]

vote: axxle

I think volt can explain why

Wait, what?

[Axxle]

vote: axxle

I think volt can explain why

This makes zero sense.

[Voltgloss]

So, amount the peanut gallery - we have 3 for volt, and 1 for qvist.

who is who? or rather who are the 3? Qvist, axxle and ash? What do you have to say?

I think Frisk means that ash, Axxle, and Munch are the 3 who want to vote me.  And you are the 1 who wants to vote Qvist.

[TheMunch]

Yeah thats wrong.  I am currently of the wanting to vote Qvist.  I said this in my last post in response to CF's question.

[Voltgloss]

vote: axxle

I think volt can explain why

I trust Frisk has a plan, but it's not immediately obvious to me what he's thinking.
Have to go finish my court filing now, but once done I'll come back to this.

[Voltgloss]

Yeah thats wrong.  I am currently of the wanting to vote Qvist.  I said this in my last post in response to CF's question.

I think Frisk thought you were switching back to me when you responded approvingly to ash's theory. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Yeah thats wrong.  I am currently of the wanting to vote Qvist.  I said this in my last post in response to CF's question.

Really?  Make up your mind!

[TheMunch]

Yeah thats wrong.  I am currently of the wanting to vote Qvist.  I said this in my last post in response to CF's question.

Really?  Make up your mind!

I did.  In my last post.

[TheMunch]

Last night my gut told me Qvist.  I had had a town read on volt the entire game.  Volt then started going on and on in a way that scared me that it had made as much sense as it did.  It felt like Volts arguments were just trying too hard to paint qvist in a bad light.  But I think I'm back to my gut; It feels a lot like Hydras and I am liable to believe the exasparated case maker is actually the one telling the truth.  He has more riding on whether or not town actually believes him, I feel.  It was already discussed in another game theory wise (at least I think it wasn't this one) but theres def a different style of defense that comes from responding to false accusations and true ones.  It feels like Volt being called into question is responding more like someone responding to being falsely accused of something.

I might not have answered your question in a quote, Frisk, but I have definitely made my opinions know every step of the way.  I have nothing to fear by sharing my opinions as they form in this thread, except for being wrong, which apparently I am wrong more than I would like to be.  So yeah, I have answered your question.  A bunch.  I have expressed nothing but opinions regarding your question.

[yuma]

vote: axxle

I think volt can explain why

I trust Frisk has a plan, but it's not immediately obvious to me what he's thinking.
Have to go finish my court filing now, but once done I'll come back to this.

so frisk, what are you thinking? Or do you want to wait for volt to figure it out?

[Voltgloss]

so frisk, what are you thinking? Or do you want to wait for volt to figure it out?

Or do the "peanut gallery" suspicions being currently split 2-2 (instead of 3-1) change your thinking, Frisk?

[Captain_Frisk]

Nope!

[TheMunch]

Nope!

Should I vote Axxle?

[yuma]

Nope!

Should I vote Axxle?

someone should explain first.

[Voltgloss]

I have one idea as to what Frisk is doing, but am concerned that by describing it, I'd undermine it.

Frisk, do you want me to opine on what appears to be your plan?

[Axxle]

I think volt can explain why

[Captain_Frisk]

All right guys:  4 scenarios to think about.

1. Qvist is scum and Axxle is Scum
2. Qvist is scum and Axxle is Not Scum
3. Volt is scum and Axxle is Scum
4. Volt is scum and Axxle is not scum

If we lynch Axxle, we win if either Scenario 1 or 3 is true.  (It will no longer matter what order we lynch Volt or Qvist in)

So - we really need to worry about scenarios 2 and 4.

Let's assume for a second that Volt is scum:

Letting an investigation go last night was incredibly bold.  Volt claims to be shocked.  If Volt is scum, and he's pressing super hard on Qvist and Axxle.  If Axxle is town - then he's attempting to drive against not only 1, but 2 townies.  Neither of them are going to agree with them, so now volt needs to convince 2 of the remaining 3 town to join with him, or he's F'd - and he's brought it upon himself. 

Thus, I do not believe that it is possible Volt is scum and Axxle is town.

Now lets consider the pair of them.  Both experienced players may be willing to do something crazy (like let a cop investigation happen and then early claim cop)  I'm sure we can all see the narrative here.  We lynch Qvist (cop) - he flips town -> I guess it was Voltgloss.  OR We lynch Voltgloss.  Axxle proclaims "I was right!" and gets immense town cred.  I mean seriously.  Axxle has already called out the correct investigations for Qvist tonight. 

As I type this, I agree that it doesn't seem very likely.  I really want to believe Voltgloss.  However, I am 99.8% certain that scenario 4 is not possible.

If we lynch Axxle and he's town, then I am 100% certain that Qvist is scum, and we can lynch him tomorrow.

The best part of this plan, is that it leaves mafia in a bind.  They once again have to choose between giving an investigation to the cop or having doctor protection.  They also have to worry about who to kill. 

1. Kill one of (Asher / Munch / Yuma) - this narrows down the other suspects.
2. Block the cop and Try to kill me (the likely doctor target)
3. Block the doctor and kill me (letting the cop get an extra investigation)
4. Kill the cop - and remove any doubt of who the scum inside of {volt,qvist} is.

The reason why I favor this approach is that

1. It allows us to win straight out.
2. There is 0 chance of lynching the town cop
3. I find QVists behavior plausible as newbie town cop
3a. I find Qvists behavior as plausible as newbie scum (in which case I think his scum parter is also newish - because I think letting the cop investigate was BAD play)
4. I find Volt's behavior plausible as town cop (i do love roleclaims)
4a. I find Volts + Axxles + Joth's behavior as plausible as advanced scum play
5. I find Volt's claim to have investigated me as totally scummy
5a. I find QVists claim to have investigated me as plausible.
6. I find Axxles play to make no sense as town, but to be very plausible as scum for either partner.
7. If Axxle is town - in my opinion it confirms which one of the "cops" is lying.

[Captain_Frisk]

Compare this plan to lynching Volt / Qvist.  Even if we're right, we still have the problem of identifying the other person.  If we're wrong, scum have a huge advantage because we have no more PRs.

[Captain_Frisk]

Compare this plan to lynching Volt / Qvist.  Even if we're right, we still have the problem of identifying the other person.  If we're wrong, scum have a huge advantage because we have no more PRs.

The fact that we came down 2/2 is even more compelling that there is no clear cut winner.

[Captain_Frisk]

I personally believe the team is Volt + Axxle, but I really hope that its Qvist + Axxle, because I'll never be able to trust Voltgloss again.

[yuma]

looks good from sight, but I am terrible at this theorizing, I always seem to miss and overlook something huge...

[Axxle]

If we lynch Axxle and he's town, then I am 100% certain that Qvist is scum, and we can lynch him tomorrow.

Really?  So you're saying that I'm just wrong here?  Thanks.

[Captain_Frisk]

If we lynch Axxle and he's town, then I am 100% certain that Qvist is scum, and we can lynch him tomorrow.

Really?  So you're saying that I'm just wrong here?  Thanks.

No - I personally think you are right.  I just hope you aren't.

[Voltgloss]

Interesting.

Frisk, do you prefer I offer my thoughts now, or would you rather I wait for all of the peanut gallery to weigh in?

[Captain_Frisk]

Interesting.

Frisk, do you prefer I offer my thoughts now, or would you rather I wait for all of the peanut gallery to weigh in?

I'm going to say peanut gallery.  From your perspective this is either a terrible idea (because I've nailed you and your mate and you're F'd if town goes along with it) or its a slightly bad idea because you are the cop and you know 100% that qvist is scum... which is something that you have to understand that I can't exactly take your word on.