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[TheMunch]

Day 2 Post Count

Qvist: 10
Joth:  12
Eevee: 26
CF:    13
Axxle: 1
Ash:   8
Yuma:  20
Volt:  13
Munch: 19

[yuma]

Some thoughts about posts since I last posted....

- TheMunch - At first I was a little irritated with him, and started to develop a scumread on him, but when I actually analyzed what he was saying I changed my mind. Here was my thought process:

Fact:
1st - I am town
2nd - Munch is voting for me
3rd - TheMunch is either mafia or town
4th - TheMunch has basically FOSed Eevee and Qvist for not voting for me, or rather expressing hesitation in voting for me.

If themunch is mafia there is only one possibility: that from his point of view he knows that I am town. If I get lynched, his FOS on Eevee and Qvist go nowhere. In fact it has a high probability of backfiring on him tomorrow.

If themunch is town there are two possibilities from his point of view. 1. I am town - if I get lynched, again his FOS on Qvist and Eevee has the potential to backfire, but he doesn't really care about that. He only cares about lynching scum.  2. I am mafia - he is able to deduce that since I am mafia, those that expressed hesitation toward me have a high probability of being mafia as well.

The only scenario in which it makes sense for theMunch to FOS eevee and qvist so hard is if he is town. All of his later posts seem to show this as well, that he is town (mistaken and overly excited for thinking that he found scum), but still town.

jot you still have not answered me regarding this:

PPE: Jot, you are completely ignoring my response to that post... If you look you can see that I skimmed the posts for a vote count... that is very easily gone in 66 seconds.

your vote was based on "as good as catching me in a lie." I have offered the true explanation of what happened? Do you think I am still lying? Or are you voting me for other reasons? If other reasons, because I can't see you voting for me when I have a good explanation for this supposed lie, why haven't you explained them?

Frisk

8. yuma - Nervous.  Hit L-1 and didn't claim?

Do you want me to claim?

[Eevee]

I think both Munch and yuma are town. Would look for scum in the Joth / Qvist / Axxle area.. oh and ashersky is playing? Him too.

[ashersky]

I think both Munch and yuma are town. Would look for scum in the Joth / Qvist / Axxle area.. oh and ashersky is playing? Him too.

Why me too?  I agree on Munch probably being town.  Yuma / Frisk are my top scum reads.  Where is Axxle???

[Eevee]

I think both Munch and yuma are town. Would look for scum in the Joth / Qvist / Axxle area.. oh and ashersky is playing? Him too.

Why me too?  I agree on Munch probably being town.  Yuma / Frisk are my top scum reads.  Where is Axxle???

Because I literally forgot you were playing until I looked at Munch's post count.

[ashersky]

I think both Munch and yuma are town. Would look for scum in the Joth / Qvist / Axxle area.. oh and ashersky is playing? Him too.

Why me too?  I agree on Munch probably being town.  Yuma / Frisk are my top scum reads.  Where is Axxle???

Because I literally forgot you were playing until I looked at Munch's post count.

You posted 30 minutes after my last post before turning in for the night--when I unvoted yuma.

[yuma]

Where is Axxle???

he was on about 1/2 hour ago... but I don't know if he viewed this thread or not...

I am not too concerned. Sometimes things come up and it is hard to post, and we do have time. The deadline is 13 days away

[Axxle]

I haven't really paid enough attention to this thread.  I'll reread it later tonight.  My home computer is busted so I have to stay late at work to catch up with things.

[Axxle]

My initial thought as of a few pages back is that yuma is town.

[jotheonah]

jot you still have not answered me regarding this:

PPE: Jot, you are completely ignoring my response to that post... If you look you can see that I skimmed the posts for a vote count... that is very easily gone in 66 seconds.

your vote was based on "as good as catching me in a lie." I have offered the true explanation of what happened? Do you think I am still lying? Or are you voting me for other reasons? If other reasons, because I can't see you voting for me when I have a good explanation for this supposed lie, why haven't you explained them?

I don't like that you hammered accidentally. If you're town and you're signing on and voting, and it's not close to a deadline, you should have read the whole thread.

Your explanation is believable, but I don't believe it. Volt's narrative of the whole thing, that you are scum who decided outing a power role/SK was worth the risk of derphammering, is still the most believable narrative to me.

[yuma]

jot you still have not answered me regarding this:

PPE: Jot, you are completely ignoring my response to that post... If you look you can see that I skimmed the posts for a vote count... that is very easily gone in 66 seconds.

your vote was based on "as good as catching me in a lie." I have offered the true explanation of what happened? Do you think I am still lying? Or are you voting me for other reasons? If other reasons, because I can't see you voting for me when I have a good explanation for this supposed lie, why haven't you explained them?

I don't like that you hammered accidentally. If you're town and you're signing on and voting, and it's not close to a deadline, you should have read the whole thread.

Your explanation is believable, but I don't believe it. Volt's narrative of the whole thing, that you are scum who decided outing a power role/SK was worth the risk of derphammering, is still the most believable narrative to me.

sure, I should have reread the entire thread, but galz's selfvote made me mad, mad enough to vote for him. That is the story.

And now I am confused... So you think I was aware of the vote count and aware that my vote would put Galz over the top, but didn't care that others would view it as a derphammer, but you also think I hammered accidentally... which one is it?

[jotheonah]

No, I think it was intentional. When I wrote "I don't like that you hammered accidentally" I meant "I don't like this idea that you hammered accidentally." If it were true it would be bad town play, and I don't think you're a bad town player, so you must be scum.

[Eevee]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

[jotheonah]

I'm not in love with the yuma lynch, and if you have another case to present, by all means. So far, Volt's case on yuma is the only case I've seen that's based on hard evidence. That seems preferable to distrusting wagons just for being wagons or voting based on a gut read you refuse to explain. I am not loving this playstyle from you, Eevee.

[yuma]

No, I think it was intentional. When I wrote "I don't like that you hammered accidentally" I meant "I don't like this idea that you hammered accidentally." If it were true it would be bad town play, and I don't think you're a bad town player, so you must be scum.

Ok... so basically what I am getting from you is this:

Either yuma is 1. mafia who made a "bad" play with a "derphammer," but didn't care because it meant that he was going to lynch a SK/PR and didn't care that it might mean he gets heat the next day

or 2. yuma is town who made a "bad" town play.

And you think that scenario 1 is more likely than scenario 2?

I guess I am ok with this logic. It is wrong, but if this is your train of thought I understand it.

[ashersky]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

Hedge much?

[yuma]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

Hedge much?

that isn't a hedge...

[ashersky]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

Hedge much?

that isn't a hedge...

It isn't a hedge if Eevee knows for sure you are town, I guess.  But "I really hope I'm right about yuma now" is clearly hedging.  Eevee can be like "look at this old post, I was second guessing myself" see?  Hedging.

[Eevee]

Nah, it's just that my "case" against Joth is partially based on yuma being town. So if I'm wrong about yuma, then my joth-vote is pretty much random shooting.

@joth
I call them as I see them. I'd need to do a reread to build a proper case. Which I might one of these days if I get an energy boost. It's nice we are actively talking this long before the deadline though, good job people.

[yuma]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

Hedge much?

that isn't a hedge...

It isn't a hedge if Eevee knows for sure you are town, I guess.  But "I really hope I'm right about yuma now" is clearly hedging.  Eevee can be like "look at this old post, I was second guessing myself" see?  Hedging.

man... no one does that... No one ever goes back and does this. and if they do they get called out about it then. Calling it out now... that just discourages open discussions and putting their thoughts out there.

If eevee is town, he doesn't know whether I am town or not. He had better hope I am town... and I don't fault him for saying so.

[TheMunch]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

Hedge much?

that isn't a hedge...

It isn't a hedge if Eevee knows for sure you are town, I guess.  But "I really hope I'm right about yuma now" is clearly hedging.  Eevee can be like "look at this old post, I was second guessing myself" see?  Hedging.

man... no one does that... No one ever goes back and does this. and if they do they get called out about it then. Calling it out now... that just discourages open discussions and putting their thoughts out there.

If eevee is town, he doesn't know whether I am town or not. He had better hope I am town... and I don't fault him for saying so.

Dont worry, I have never been afraid to put my thoughts out there!

[ashersky]

Vote: jotheonah

Not voting is dumb, he has felt off to me from the beginning and really seems to want to make this yuma lynch happen which I don't like. I really hope I'm right about yuma now though.

Hedge much?

that isn't a hedge...

It isn't a hedge if Eevee knows for sure you are town, I guess.  But "I really hope I'm right about yuma now" is clearly hedging.  Eevee can be like "look at this old post, I was second guessing myself" see?  Hedging.

man... no one does that... No one ever goes back and does this. and if they do they get called out about it then. Calling it out now... that just discourages open discussions and putting their thoughts out there.

If eevee is town, he doesn't know whether I am town or not. He had better hope I am town... and I don't fault him for saying so.

That's a fine belief to have, I guess, but then why do we discuss hedging at all?  This isn't the first time the topic has come up in mafia games on f.ds.

[Captain_Frisk]

Bump?

Can we get a vote count up in here?

[Insomniac]

There was one on PAGE 16 (and since all that has happened is eevee voting)


Vote Count 2-2

Captain_Frisk (1) - QVist
Jotheonah (1) - Axxle, Eevee
Ashersky (1) - yuma
yuma (3) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch
Eevee (1) - Captain_Frisk


Not Voting (1) - ashersky

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

[Voltgloss]

I see you are on, Axxle.  Any further thoughts since your reread last night?