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[O]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

you're wrong
you're town
Robz is wrong
he's scum.

Come join mai wagon!!

[cayvie]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

you're wrong
you're town
Robz is wrong
he's scum.

Come join mai wagon!!

yes, but what percent sure are you?

[Captain_Frisk]

What is up with the percentages?

[O]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

you're wrong
you're town
Robz is wrong
he's scum.

Come join mai wagon!!

yes, but what percent sure are you?

I'm 0% sure that Robz is scum. I think there is a ~50% probability Robz is scum.

[cayvie]

What is up with the percentages?

I'm trying something!

thanks, O.

[Insomniac]

@cayvie I'm not sure Robz is scum at all but I'd say I'm 40% ish  on him being scum, and while it's not a lot it is more than I have assigned to anyone else.

[cayvie]

@cayvie I'm not sure Robz is scum at all but I'd say I'm 40% ish  on him being scum, and while it's not a lot it is more than I have assigned to anyone else.

cool, thanks. just waiting on sparky now and then i'll release my findings from this experiment!

[theorel]

I am for lynching sooner rather than later. We would rather leave time for later in the game when our odds of lynching scum get better.

I agree with this.  There is a limit to the amount of information we can glean from D1.  Now, I suppose if you have folks posting and posting with no end in sight, someone may be more likely to slip up, or we may all start seeing things that aren't there.

I don't want to lynch just to lynch in the next X minutes, but I don't know if using up the bankable time now instead of banking it up for when we can better use it (i.e., when the odds of catching scum are greater) is the best plan of action.

And I (hopefully unsurprisingly) disagree with this sentiment.  I think that day1 can reach a point where it stagnates and useful information stops flowing, and can only start flowing in earnest after a lynch.  However, I think we have just reached the stage of day1 where information actually starts to flow.  Hopefully it will start to be useful after the lynch.

[theorel]

Hey, let's have a post count...just for fun.  Pregame was pretty short here, so I probably don't need to adjust for pre-game posts.  But I am pedantic, so, what can you do.
Preplay posts:
1 - ashersky: 3
2 - Robz888: 5
3 - Eevee: 3
4 - Captain_Frisk: 2
5 - cayvie: 3
6 - sparky5856: 2
7 - jotheonah: 2
8 - Insomniac: 2
9 - Grujah: 0
10 - Cuzz: 2
11 - pingpongsam: 2
12 - O: 2
13 - theorel: 2

Current posts:
1 - ashersky: 13
2 - Robz888: 47
3 - Eevee: 44
4 - Captain_Frisk: 17
5 - cayvie: 28
6 - sparky5856: 13
7 - jotheonah: 34
8 - Insomniac: 27
9 - Grujah: 6
10 - Cuzz: 10
11 - pingpongsam: 22
12 - O: 21
13 - theorel: 24

So, actual posts:
Ash: 10
Robz: 42
Eevee: 41
Cap: 15
cayvie: 25
sparky: 11
joth: 32
Insomniac: 25
Grujah: 6
Cuzz: 8
pps: 20
O: 19
Theo: 22

A few of these players I haven't played with: Cuzz, Ashersky, Sparky.  From those who have, does this seem about right for them?
Grujah has been busy, so his 6 posts makes sense...
Anyways, I was just checking on it as I'm working through what I think of everyone's current activity (rejudged after everyone decided to start focusing on 2 people).  I'm going to Vote: Cuzz right now...because I find his overall behavior scummy (i.e. sitting on pps with 8 total posts).  He's the one who pushed the wagon to 4 before things slowed down...Robz, and joth both switched off after a bit of sitting at 4, to switch on again only when a second wagon reached that point...
Robz and joth's statements have not seemed particularly townie regarding the pingpongsam wagon, but their behavior has seemed town.  Cuzz' statements have seemed townie regarding pingpongsam, but his behavior has seemed scummy.  This strikes me as reasonable scum-play, but then I've never seen Cuzz play (unless he was in BMV, but that doesn't really count).  If this is pretty standard Cuzz-play then I'm just off in left field, and I would appreciate being informed.

[Cuzz]

Hey, let's have a post count...just for fun.  Pregame was pretty short here, so I probably don't need to adjust for pre-game posts.  But I am pedantic, so, what can you do.
Preplay posts:
1 - ashersky: 3
2 - Robz888: 5
3 - Eevee: 3
4 - Captain_Frisk: 2
5 - cayvie: 3
6 - sparky5856: 2
7 - jotheonah: 2
8 - Insomniac: 2
9 - Grujah: 0
10 - Cuzz: 2
11 - pingpongsam: 2
12 - O: 2
13 - theorel: 2

Current posts:
1 - ashersky: 13
2 - Robz888: 47
3 - Eevee: 44
4 - Captain_Frisk: 17
5 - cayvie: 28
6 - sparky5856: 13
7 - jotheonah: 34
8 - Insomniac: 27
9 - Grujah: 6
10 - Cuzz: 10
11 - pingpongsam: 22
12 - O: 21
13 - theorel: 24

So, actual posts:
Ash: 10
Robz: 42
Eevee: 41
Cap: 15
cayvie: 25
sparky: 11
joth: 32
Insomniac: 25
Grujah: 6
Cuzz: 8
pps: 20
O: 19
Theo: 22

A few of these players I haven't played with: Cuzz, Ashersky, Sparky.  From those who have, does this seem about right for them?
Grujah has been busy, so his 6 posts makes sense...
Anyways, I was just checking on it as I'm working through what I think of everyone's current activity (rejudged after everyone decided to start focusing on 2 people).  I'm going to Vote: Cuzz right now...because I find his overall behavior scummy (i.e. sitting on pps with 8 total posts).  He's the one who pushed the wagon to 4 before things slowed down...Robz, and joth both switched off after a bit of sitting at 4, to switch on again only when a second wagon reached that point...
Robz and joth's statements have not seemed particularly townie regarding the pingpongsam wagon, but their behavior has seemed town.  Cuzz' statements have seemed townie regarding pingpongsam, but his behavior has seemed scummy.  This strikes me as reasonable scum-play, but then I've never seen Cuzz play (unless he was in BMV, but that doesn't really count).  If this is pretty standard Cuzz-play then I'm just off in left field, and I would appreciate being informed.

Dude, we did play together in BMV. And ashersky was there too by the way. But if you didn't notice me there, then maybe I just tend to fly under the radar in general? (though I was scum in BMV, so don't read too much into that) This and MXI are only my third and fourth games, but I did get called out for being lurkish a bit in MX. I try not to disappear for long stretches or anything, but I also don't really post much unless I feel I have something to say. Plus I was V/LA for the first rl day of this game for whatever that's worth.

How have you felt about the content of my posts. You say they seem townish for the most part, right?

[Cuzz]

I should have added above that I was town in MX.

[sparky5856]

@cayvie I'm not sure Robz is scum at all but I'd say I'm 40% ish  on him being scum, and while it's not a lot it is more than I have assigned to anyone else.

cool, thanks. just waiting on sparky now and then i'll release my findings from this experiment!

Sorry, been away at work. Serving hungry customers is time consuming >_<

As for your query, I say a little bit less than 50% is a reasonable estimate. What's your plan cayvie?

A few of these players I haven't played with: Cuzz, Ashersky, Sparky.  From those who have, does this seem about right for them?

Yes it's normal for me. I don't post a lot (and this is the case for the forum in its entirety, about 1 post every 4 days), but when I do, it tends to be a lot of content. I also have real-life distracting me a lot >_<

[pingpongsam]

So you're not actually voting for your top scum read? I guess that's just because you've decided to be willfully anti-town this game.

I've spelled out my reasons for this already but it's good of you to take the opportunity now instead of then to smear it.

[pingpongsam]

I'm on the Robz wagon because he's a decent pick for being scum and the people I perceive as town are on it. My 1st pick for scum is Jo and I've not seen any good reasons to think otherwise. In other words I'm sheeping my townmates because my own reputation is too blemished to push a wagon on my own merit.

quoted reference so you don't complain.

[cayvie]

As for your query, I say a little bit less than 50% is a reasonable estimate. What's your plan cayvie?

Thanks!

Here's one part of my plan: asking you to reconcile this "a bit less than 50%" vote on Robz with this post:

No matter who you are, why would you intentionally play anti-town? Unless he wants to die? The only role that has an ability upon death is vengeful townie, but I don't see much of a purpose to immediately get killed. I'm gonna start my analysis now.

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative.

Isn't that the case with anyone though? I guess the key word here is "suddenly". But wasting the whole game intentionally steering the town in the wrong direction?

So, am I scum playing to my own demise? What scum hates most is losing control of the game. While this early claim has verifiably controlled the flow of the game to date it seems heavy handed for worthy scum play to me.

So that's why he claimed; he thinks it's clumsy scum play to claim VT this early. But it's currently attracting a lot of suspicion. If he is town, then it's quite a bold move. If he is scum, then he DOES consider it worthy scum-play, since, well, he did it. His arguments could go either way, which doesn't help in the purposes of defending himself, which is what we were asking to begin with.

Scum knows I am Town.  They do not know if I am VT or PR regardless of my claim.

This is actually a valid observation, in general. If he is scum then he's speaking really ambiguously. It's completely true if he's town though.

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

I do realize this and I see it as a predicament for scum which is precisely the intent. The WIFOM is on Scum in this case.

Scum want to leave in suspicious players. Which happens to be you.

It means something because it was said and also when it was said. Had I not said it then it is simply implied as it is for every man in the game. That it is the center of discussion means it holds value, as to which alignment can make that value theirs is up to everyone else in the game. My assertion, which can only be proven or disproven as the game progresses is that this tilts the field so that Scum does not hold the D1 advantage that they typically do.

Not following you here. I especially don't understand the "implied VT". Most start out with a PR, and while they may not get to use their powers immediately, they still want to defend their powers. And the last bit (scum not holding the D1 advantage) needs some clarifying. He only mentions it briefly.

UGHHHH I'm done. Defenses do not make sense >_< He could flip either way, but the fact that he specifically called his stunt anti-town is questionable. I did say before that he's more likely to turn up town, now it's about even. My previous assertion before was me being over-cautious for a mislynch. But as I also said before, maybe it's beneficial to have an early Day 1 lynch. What jo said:

I know lots of people will say I'm scummy for trying to rush us into a Day 1 lynch. But I think it's anti-town to wait for the sake of waiting, especially with bankable deadlines, and I, for one, don't have much else to say. Thoughts?

(If jo himself is scum I just made myself look bad there. >_> He's attracting too much attention with his audacity.)

Bottom line: PPS is a living breathing WIFOM. He can go either way almost 50-50 imo, and analyzing just leads to time-delays in the case of him, because nothing good is coming out of it. Vote time?

I'll Vote: Robz.

I think I learned my lesson ignoring/believing silent/lurky Robz.  But really, no content to speak of, hiding from the hider chatter, on the pps wagon (an easy place for scum to sit if they want)...

Let's see some Robz!

Indeed, Robz has turned lurky again. He's accruing scum points by the hour lol.

In particular, the part I resized. Why do you not vote for PPS here, if you're about 50/50 on him being scum, but instead push for Robz, someone else you're 50/50 on?

[cayvie]

By the way: I'm not asking "why aren't you voting for PPS now", because you've posted since then that your read has vacillated.

I want to know why you didn't vote for him then, instead pushing your attention toward his attackers.

[sparky5856]

By the way: I'm not asking "why aren't you voting for PPS now", because you've posted since then that your read has vacillated.

I want to know why you didn't vote for him then, instead pushing your attention toward his attackers.

Good observation, and I have explanations. The vote total then was:

Vote Count 1-5

Robz888 (2): Insomniac, ashersky
pingpongsam (4): Robz888, Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (3): Eevee, pingpongsam, O
sparky5856 (1): cayvie
O (1): jotheonah

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

A vote from me would have put PPS at L-2 with everyone else behind. With no other wagons as strong as PPS at the time, putting him at L-2 would have been risky imo. Only one wagon with a 50% success of scum isn't high enough for me. But later, a sizable wagon develops on Robz. Both end up at L-2, which I observed (to myself) as fascinating. I was curious to see if any additional votes would accrue on either.

theorel unvoted from Robz. So, I put a vote back. And hey, if they're both at 50-50 to me, might as well keep them even right? I can switch to one or the other at this point (since they ARE even after all). My vote on Robz is to keep the L-2 wagons going. I like action 

Basically whoever I vote on depends on the situation as well as my confidence, not just my confidence. Sorry if it's not the best explanation, but I needed to do something with my vote, whether for strategic purposes or just trying to lynch possible scum.

Should we ask everyone who's voting for PPS what their confidence percentage levels are about their votes? I think comparing them to the percentages on Robz is a great idea. And I like that there's more parts to your plan, I like plans. 

[cayvie]

Part 2 of the plan: see if anyone says anything off-the-wall, like this:

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

Holy crap, a 70% certainty that someone's scum? Day 1?

A statement like that, to me, almost certainly means one of these things:

1) PPS doesn't get probability
2) PPS overvalues his own reads (aka is tunneling hardcore)
3) PPS is scum, and is tossing around random numbers.

[cayvie]

Part 2 of the plan, book 2:

Hey, people on the robzwagon, what percentage would you say Robz has of flipping scum?

I'd put it at 33.3%.

While that's a reasonable number to vote someone on, I'm curious if Robz is your highest scumread, as that's barely above average, assuming 3 scum.

[Robz888]

Part 2 of the plan: see if anyone says anything off-the-wall, like this:

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

Holy crap, a 70% certainty that someone's scum? Day 1?

A statement like that, to me, almost certainly means one of these things:

1) PPS doesn't get probability
2) PPS overvalues his own reads (aka is tunneling hardcore)
3) PPS is scum, and is tossing around random numbers.

If you were 70% sure someone was scum, you should not be voting for some other second-strongest scum read. You should be arguing to the town to accept your case on that 70% confidence person.

[cayvie]

Yeah, okay.

I had a townread on you earlier, PPS, but not anymore.

vote: Pingpongsam

I believe that's L-1.

[jotheonah]

Part 2 of the plan: see if anyone says anything off-the-wall, like this:

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

Holy crap, a 70% certainty that someone's scum? Day 1?

A statement like that, to me, almost certainly means one of these things:

1) PPS doesn't get probability
2) PPS overvalues his own reads (aka is tunneling hardcore)
3) PPS is scum, and is tossing around random numbers.

If you were 70% sure someone was scum, you should not be voting for some other second-strongest scum read. You should be arguing to the town to accept your case on that 70% confidence person.

that's what I was trying to say before.

My confidence that PPS is scum is about 65%.

[O]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

[O]

flips town* yawn not scumslip

[cayvie]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

no im not