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[Captain_Frisk]

Wow... Ftl with paint.  He did drop the plant hint early though, so I guess I believe it, vs him being the source of the ice cream kill.

Right now I feel that town consensus is it kill, so I won't, but I agree with lekkit - at least as it pertains to use of my power.  Reasons 2 and 3 don't apply, and given that I'm likely to die without protection that I done expect to receive, then we are just flushing town power.

I'm ok with the robz lynch, and will hammer if we think we are done talking.  We have time, but this is role madness, and I get the feeling everyone wants to play with them again.

[Eevee]

@Lekkit
It's practically impossible for Frisk to be mafia. If he is, there'd need to be a serial killer who drops ice cream cones on people somewhere (in the neighborhood). I think strangling/strongman attributes are almost always vigs or serial killers.

@Frisk and Lekkit
Wait whaaat? I think the exact opposite - Frisk is the nut least likely of us to die at night. He is SO suspected, I recall several people (Dsell and the now-so-scummy Robz at least) saying "he is basically obvscum now", I do not think mafia wants to kill him. Especially if we wind up instructing him to noshoot, HE IS BASICALLY A VANILLA TOWNIE EVERYONE SUSPECTS THE HELL OUT OF, WHY WOULD MAFIA SHOOT HIM? Frisk will surely be with us tomorrow, but luckily if he is a serial killer he has something like 2% to win this game and even that 2% requires cooperating with the town as if he really was a vig so I absolutely think he is a positive utility to us either way.

I know theorel did some analysis on the utility of vigs, but I've always found them sort.. meh. I'm probably biased because yuma shot me in MVIII, idk, but I just feel like vigs a) make the game shorter and less fun (more chances to get nightkilled which sucks) and also b) have been exclusively shooting townies in our games, so don't really feel bad at all if we "flush our vigs power town the toilet". In fact, I feel the strongest use for a vig is the end game, where town can manipulate lylo and mylo situations and also kill 2 confirmed scum a day if we happen to find them that fast via massclaiming or some other measures. So, I don't think Frisk will be dying anytime soon, and I think that bodes rather well for us because it means we can save his shots to possible endgame scenarios where we need them.
We might even run to a situation where we want Frisk to shoot someone at night and then be the heroic lynch target the following day. That would be fun.

[Lekkit]

@Eeve: what I mwnat was that CF will either be killed tonight or hes probably going to get lynched tomorrow.

[Eevee]

@Eeve: what I mwnat was that CF will either be killed tonight or hes probably going to get lynched tomorrow.

Uh okay. That makes more sense. I disagree though, obviously depends on stuff but generally I think trying to lynch mafia is more advantageous to us, because as I explained, he is our little bitch either way, he can't afford to harm us and we can easily deal with him later if need be because he is the only member of his faction or a town vig. It's either way better to have him working for us while we hunt for mafia than lynch him, miss a chance at hitting mafia and potentially even kill off our vig.

[Captain_Frisk]

Way to making me want to work for you fuzzy

[Eevee]

Way to making me want to work for you fuzzy

Admitting to being a serial killer then?

[Captain_Frisk]

Not at all.  Just don't appreciate being called a little bitch

[Lekkit]

CF: Do you think a SK benefits town early in the game?

[Captain_Frisk]

Unclear.  The jk9++ setup indicates that it weakens mafia.

In m4 I played as I thought town would, at least for the first night.

Here, I thought that insomniac might be sk, or maybe "mafia".  The way he said "I'm not what you think I am" was just strange phrasing. Why not just say I'm town?

I suppose I can see eevees point that keeping me alive is good wifom, but I look at my ability as stronger than lynch because it isn't invfluenced by scum voting.  It is 100pct town directed.

That said, I'd rather live and be a town vote than be a mislynched tomorrow.

[Eevee]

Not at all.  Just don't appreciate being called a little bitch

I mean sorry if you took offense, it was 100% meant to be in good fun.

SK weakening mafia is different than it helping town though. When there is only town and mafia, the pie of winning percentages is divided into two pieces (say 50%-50%). Add in a serial killer who wins 15% of the time, it can now be something like 45-40-15, so even though mafia got weaker so did town. I would assume adding more factions almost always makes things harder for any individual faction.

[shraeye]

Not at all.  Just don't appreciate being called a little bitch

I mean sorry if you took offense, it was 100% meant to be in good fun.

SK weakening mafia is different than it helping town though. When there is only town and mafia, the pie of winning percentages is divided into two pieces (say 50%-50%). Add in a serial killer who wins 15% of the time, it can now be something like 45-40-15, so even though mafia got weaker so did town. I would assume adding more factions almost always makes things harder for any individual faction.

I agree, it seems like people have been saying SK weakens mafia, therefore is better for town.  I'm not sure if eevee's numbers are actual or hypothetical, but it was clear to me that weakening mafia, and strengthening town are not the same.  I would think an SK weakens every other faction (maybe to different degrees though).

[shraeye]

We might even run to a situation where we want Frisk to shoot someone at night and then be the heroic lynch target the following day. That would be fun.

What's a heroic lynch?  In what situation would a 'heroic lynch' be good for town?

[Eevee]

We might even run to a situation where we want Frisk to shoot someone at night and then be the heroic lynch target the following day. That would be fun.

What's a heroic lynch?  In what situation would a 'heroic lynch' be good for town?

We first direct his kill, he kills (the last) mafia and then we lynch him the following day, he flips SK and we win. Or he flips town and we can PoE to the last mafia, something to that effect anyways.

The numbers in my post were hypothetical.

[shraeye]

I'm still on the Robz wagon, which I will take credit for starting, even if it was pages ago, but wanted to get some convo going on Eevee's odd question/half-claim.

He has a targeted night action, which he says is town, but could backfire if he targets something with mail?

Sounds kind of odd, and kind of role-fishy, right?

Eevee, can you say who you targeted last night?  Anything to sort of clear yourself?  I feel like we've been giving Eevee a pass...

Wug? HOW? How is it rolefishy? Your post seems a LOT more rolefishy than mine tbh.. I asked if someone's role name worked in the mail delivering industry. I even said "it's fine if you don't want to disclose it for whatever reason, just don't, but then we just might both die because of it". If this was a scummy thing, why on earth would I tell everyone about it? It's not like I got caught doing anything, I voluntarily told you about it. To clarify: it's sort of a "punishment" and has nothing to do with my actual role. I can't target it all, my otherwise pacifistic character just simply commits murder-suicide if it happens to target that one particular player. Which sort of makes me not want to use my night action at all because 1/14 chance of two players (myself a townie and then the other guy of unknown alignment) dying is not very desirable.

Eevee's right here, ashersky.  You are being much more rolefishy than Eevee ever was.  He's just warning us that he'll go postal if he encounters a postal worker unexpectedly (hah, I see what eHalc did there!).  I'm no postal worker, but if I were, I think i'd be willing to tell eevee.  It seems that the only scenario where I'd be afraid to do that is if I had a scum read on Eevee, and I was worried he's lying about that and wants to know about postal workers for some hidden reason.  I may be wary about telling him if I had a null-read, but I think I'd err on the side of self-preservation and still confess.

So Eevee, it seems that you may be best off targeting either somebody who has a town read on you, or somebody who has explicitly said they aren't postal workers.  (which makes lying about it much more dangerous).

[shraeye]

We might even run to a situation where we want Frisk to shoot someone at night and then be the heroic lynch target the following day. That would be fun.

What's a heroic lynch?  In what situation would a 'heroic lynch' be good for town?

We first direct his kill, he kills (the last) mafia and then we lynch him the following day, he flips SK and we win. Or he flips town and we can PoE to the last mafia, something to that effect anyways.

The numbers in my post were hypothetical.

What is PoE?

[Eevee]

We might even run to a situation where we want Frisk to shoot someone at night and then be the heroic lynch target the following day. That would be fun.

What's a heroic lynch?  In what situation would a 'heroic lynch' be good for town?

We first direct his kill, he kills (the last) mafia and then we lynch him the following day, he flips SK and we win. Or he flips town and we can PoE to the last mafia, something to that effect anyways.

The numbers in my post were hypothetical.

What is PoE?

Process of Elimination.

[shraeye]

Really, Eevee?  I read 12 pages at once, and can't remember a case made against Galzria.  My gut still feels weird with him so i ask someone to recall it if they can (whoever made it I bet still remembers it well).

How did that turn into a scum read on Galz???  I'm not sure if you can characterize my parenthetical about Galz as "excited to go read back"  If this were a serious scumread, you bet your bubblegum I'd have already done the research myself and be ready with a clear post.  I'm just asking for clarification.

The gut/fact argument was not with me, so it possibly was with SFS.

What I'm now curious about is why did you jump at me for asking somebody to recall Galzria's argument?
For other people's benefit, I'm posting my "excited over Galzria being scum" sentences below.  Protip: There is a huge disparity between what they are and what Eevee says they are.

By the way, I vaguely recall somebody making a scum pairing including Galz, who made that and what was the explanation?  Because I'm still super wary of Galz, and I can't tell when he's explaining sometimes whether he's being clear and helping me make informed decisions [town], or being forceful and pushing me to sheep his decisions [scummy]).

You going after [Galzria] like that makes it seem like you don't really consider the actual facts but rather try to look for evidence you'd want to be true

Yeah man, I was reeeeally going after Galzria there.  Frankly I'm surprised he didn't get immediately lynched over that *awesome* case I made.

"Going after Galzria" might be overstating a bit, but it does look like you'd want to suspect him and are looking for reasons for doing so. "super wary" is quite strong considering how much he has helped us today, especially so because you don't seem to oppose Robz lynch and I'm going to eat my hat if Robz and Galzria are in the same scum team and the serial killer slot if any has already been reserved to Frisk.

You absolutely were overstating it.  My question, and the one you just ducked, is why?  Why did such a small statement make you jump out at me for 'attacking' Galzria.  It just seems like you were being hypersensitive of any suspicion at Galzria.

I'm not 100% sold on a Robz-lynch, maybe 76% sold right now; I want to have more time to sort today out in my mind before I feel good being fully behind a Robz lynch.  But regardless, I don't see why my wariness regarding Galzria is less justified because of support of a Robz lynch. 

'super wary' is quite strong considering how much he has helped us today, especially so because you don't seem to oppose Robz lynch

This sentence just makes no sense to me.  Are you saying that because Galz has helped us and implicated Robz, that there's no way he's scum??  It seems to me that there's a lot of suspicion around Robz, about his attitude yesterday and his actions today.  If Galz were scum, him organizing today and pushing a Robz lynch are both perfectly reasonable actions. (especially if people like you are willing to push the idea that this makes him obvtown).

[Captain_Frisk]

I did ask Joth a question regarding his ability & galz a few pages back.  Is this what you were thinking of Shraeye?  Hardly a case, just a question as to whether or not his vanilla scoop could have caused a flavor override if Galz was a ninja killer.

Galz reads pro town to me today, but Galz seemed pretty pro town to me in BMMMMMMMMM1.

[shraeye]

I did ask Joth a question regarding his ability & galz a few pages back.  Is this what you were thinking of Shraeye?  Hardly a case, just a question as to whether or not his vanilla scoop could have caused a flavor override if Galz was a ninja killer.

Galz reads pro town to me today, but Galz seemed pretty pro town to me in BMMMMMMMMM1.

Naw, i think that it was slightly more than a questioning of galz's ability.  Yeah, Galz has a habit of always reading town to people, especially if you use activity and apparent helpfulness as your only factors on a town-read.  Galz's style is to always be helpful and thorough (at least after day 1).

I was searching idly for what I recalled reading and couldn't find it.  Maybe I mixed Galz up with a different name.  Man, now I'm feeling slightly crazy.  As I recall it was a theory that was different than the watno covering for jorbles/watno covering for robz/frisk is SK maybe vig story that many people were making.  In my mind, I was thinking "now there's an interesting different possibility that I'll look into later," so now I'm really frustrated that I misrecalled it and can't remember any other details.  Regardless, my question to eevee stands.

[Captain_Frisk]

Bump?  Not enough Mafia going on.  Should I just hammer and put all 3 games into night?  I'm not sure I've ever hammered before.

[jotheonah]

@Lekkit
It's practically impossible for Frisk to be mafia. If he is, there'd need to be a serial killer who drops ice cream cones on people somewhere (in the neighborhood). I think strangling/strongman attributes are almost always vigs or serial killers.

This is actually not crazy. In RMM1, I was a serial killer who borrowed power roles from the dead. That's not too different from a serial killer who borrows flavor roles from the living.  It possible that vig + SK targeted Insomniac and a mafia kill was roleblocked (which would point to Dsell) or doctored (which tells us nothing ATM).

We actually should be considering these edge cases, or at least keeping them in the realm of possibility.

[jotheonah]

Frisk, I do want people to weigh in on this. What if there was a third kill that didn't go through? Does that substantially change our conclusions/course of action? A mimic SK actually seems much more eHalc's style than a mimic mafia does.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, I do want people to weigh in on this. What if there was a third kill that didn't go through? Does that substantially change our conclusions/course of action? A mimic SK actually seems much more eHalc's style than a mimic mafia does.

I absolutely agree that there was a possible 3rd (or more) kill.  Obviously - from my perspective I know that my shot on Insomniac was town, but even if you believe that I'm "mafia" or SK, only 2 night kills is light for a game of this size:

M4: Town Vig, Serial Killer, Mafia Faction
M6: 2 Scum factions + WOSV.  (Was there a SK in this game too?)
M9: 2 scum factions + serial killer.  Can't remember if there was a vig.

[shraeye]

@Lekkit
It's practically impossible for Frisk to be mafia. If he is, there'd need to be a serial killer who drops ice cream cones on people somewhere (in the neighborhood). I think strangling/strongman attributes are almost always vigs or serial killers.

This is actually not crazy. In RMM1, I was a serial killer who borrowed power roles from the dead. That's not too different from a serial killer who borrows flavor roles from the living.  It possible that vig + SK targeted Insomniac and a mafia kill was roleblocked (which would point to Dsell) or doctored (which tells us nothing ATM).

We actually should be considering these edge cases, or at least keeping them in the realm of possibility.

This.  Something about the kills hasn't been adding up.  It's crazy that two kills hit the same person, and even weirder that there was no 3rd attempt.  I'm back and forth in my mind on Frisk, earlier I found myself implicitly believing his claim, and wondering why there wasn't a second death, or more people that watno tracked in case 3 kill attempts all miraculously hit Insom.  Then when I was organizing my thoughts from the huge 12 page catchup for day 2, I decided that Frisk must have been SK for sure. 

But now I'm wondering why nobody has talked at all about other blocked/saved kill possibilities.  It makes me think that there most definitely was a missing NK and that scum are staying tight-lipped and loving that Vig-Frisk jumped in to take the fall for the second faction. 

Regardless of your take on Frisk, we should think about missing NKs.  If Frisk is Vig, there most definitely was a blocked NK.  If Frisk is SK than maybe scum+Frisk were the only shots and they both managed to hit Insom, but there could still probably be another faction (or an actual-vig as well) like in MIX.  If Frisk is Mafia, then we are probably also missing a kill; possibly SK+scumFrisk hit Insom, with SK stealing flavor from living players as joth implies (or actually being joth...?).  In a setup this size, I would expect at least one Vig, and either 2 or 3 scumfactions.  If there is no vig, then most definitely I think there are 3 scumfactions

Missing kill really points to DSell right now, as we know he was blocked (assuming we believe Jorbles' claim, and I do believe that he is a role-blocker at least).  But that's the only block that we know about; obviously there could be others.  So I don't really feel like crucifying DSell right now for being the only person we know was blocked, but still that's a pretty serious bit of suspicion.

[Eevee]

@shraeye

I don't know if you missed this in your 12 page catchup, but no one was suspecting Robz at all until Galzria came up with the "Robz-theory", that in my and apparently most everyone else's mind too accounts for all the night actions in the simplest and most believable way. THERE WAS NO SIGN OF ROBZ BEING SUSPECTED UP UNTIL THAT POINT. What's more, at first people didn't really understand the case, Galzria spent several posts explaining to me why it all makes sense (because I was being slow). I can't fathom him bussing Robz LIKE THAT. And then, unless Joth's 3rd kill that got blocked theory is true (and it could be, especially if Frisk is town), the scum faction we are suspecting Robz of being is mafia. HOW COULD GALZRIA BE MAFIA? Sure, if we have multiple scum teams or if Robz is town that's possible, but for multiple scum teams we'd need the missing kill. And really, THERE IS NO CASE AGAINST GALZRIA. All he has done this far is help us build a case I and others find very compelling. If Robz flips town (I obv dont expect this and neither should you with your 77% figure), Galzria still has participated in the discussion both heavily and helpfully, and I think the other narratives we've built are good too, just less likely. I know he fooled me super bad in Ozles Murder Mystery, but this is different because my town read isn't based on gut but on the fact he has helped in building believable narratives that explain all the night actions. I was super lost, some people still seem super lost, I would say Galzria has easily been the most helpful townie today. And I just can't believe all the cases he's made are against townies. And Frisk is already the serial killer if there is one, so he'd need to have team mates. And sure yeah maybe he could be scum with someone else, that I can believe, but with Robz, not in a million years!

The reason I'm probably overreacting to your seemingly harmless comment about Galzria is that I don't think the suspicion is at all warranted and quite frankly it just seems like a distraction. Galzria can't be scum with Robz so unless Robz is a serial killer somehow (lol), Galzria can't be scum. I guess that's where we disagree, and I think that's because you vastly underestimate the part Galzria played in catching Robz (assuming he's scum). Now if Robz flips town, then sure Galzria suspicion is back on the table, but he still has been so much more helpful than anyone else, he wouldn't really be the first or second or fifth place I'd look. I still don't like how Lekkit is skating by contributing that little and not getting suspected for it, but I guess he always plays like that. I don't think it makes any sense whatsoever to suspect Galzria, who is contributing more than ~anyone while some people stay in the shadows. We don't need to have the old lurker debate again and I don't think anyone is lurking in a harmful way yet, but with more people like Galzria this would go even better.