Gonna do this as best I can. I'm a bit drunk right now, so you'll excuse me for typing mistakes or wandering thoughts...
First off, I'm still hopeful that CF is the Vig he claims to be, but I honestly don't believe it to be true. Last night there was a missing kill, and there's only so many ways to explain it. So let me start by suggesting a limited call to claim here:
If you're responsible for causing a death not to happen last night, now's three time to speak up, and here's why:
Players alive:
Dsell
Ftl
CF
Ash
Shraeye
Eevee
Cayvie
Lekkit
(
players. Assume 3 Mafia. Assume CF is X, where X can be town or SK. The split looks like this: 4-X-3
If we mislynch, and Mafia kill Frisk, we're at a 3-3 split and we lose. At best, if we mislynch, Frisk shoots a scum for us before dying himself and we're at 3-2.
The point is, we cannot afford to mislynch here, because we're very, very easily in mylo. But because of our situation, our roles are generally meaningless to scum. Everybody here is a PR, so its not like any one of us is hiding something special. Furthermore, scum will want to prioritize NK'ing those that can kill them - Frisk, basically - so what claims we DO make will be protected by a CF wall (sorry buddy, but that's the way it is. If you're town, you'll understand).
Onto the issue of the missing kill: My running theory if nobody speaks up is that CF is a bullet-proof SK. N2, we reigned him in, so scum were unthreatened, thus left him alone. N3, we set him loose. Scum certainly couldn't have that, so they shot him... But being protected, he didn't die.
I don't -at all- fault him for his choice to shoot Joth. The freaking odds that Watno, Jorbles, Robz AND Joth were all telling the truth is ridiculous given events. I wish it were otherwise, but c'est la vie.
Now, I asked each person about their opinion of mass-claiming, and Lekkit's response stood out to me the most in that he was least wary of doing so (#1811). Why? Because scum have had now pregame + 3 nights to talk and strategize. It would make a pretty poor scum team that didn't pre-plan fakeclaims in a rolemadness game, especially as the game gets later and they know scrutiny can't be held off forever. Lekkit was all but jumping at the chance to claim. Very suspicious, especially since he didn't flush out any reasons to do so.
In post #1810, Cayvie waffled on claiming. This one was next in line to me in that it really read like she was trying to gauge town reaction to massclaim before deciding. Not calling her scum for it, but I did take note. Again, I suspect Mafia already have all their fake claims in hand, ready to go.
Shraeye was very hesitant to claim, and despite ether inconsistencies of post #1812, his subsequent responses DID have a generally townie vibe to me.
Ashersky's #1826 was brief, but also showed mistrust in massclaiming. Not much to go on here, but worth noting. He also listed his scum reads, which kill circle back to.
Eevee was last then, posting in #1828, where he says that he isn't decided on claiming. He's generally opposed, but could bee convinced it was a good idea.
What I get on this is:
Really uncomfortable claiming:
Shraeye, Ashersky
Willing to consider:
Cayvie, Eevee
Would be open to:
Lekkit
Based on my observation above that by this point scum is likely to have all their claims lined up and waiting, minor FoS at the bottom 3 on this issue.
Next up, reads:
I've covered Dsell already and why I think he is town 95/100 times, and I'm pretty sure most people here have agreed. So let me start with ftl. To answer your question Eevee, ftl is town to me both based on flavor, and based on role.
Role: He claimed something D2 that only I picked up on apparently (and this is good!) - And that is that ftl is a cop... Of sorts. I'll get to what type later on. Suffice it to say that this particular softclaim brought about a very specific and particular flavour reference to something else. When I questioned him on it, he semi-confirmed my read, and we both dropped it. But to me, if this particular flavour were scum, this game would be a Bastard game, so I concluded that he's likely town. It's no guarantee, but it's enough for me to work with.
All y'all's reads:
Given a 3 Mafia setup, I asked for each of your single town read for the following reason:
CF - Not Mafia
Dsell - Not Mafia
ftl - Likely not Mafia
Eevee
Shraeye
Lekkit
Cayvie
Ashersky
This is the list of living players. From your own perspectives, each of you claims town. That leaves 4 players in which 3 scum are likely to be. Put another way, there can only be one town amongst those 4.
Ashersky:
Scummy: Lekkit, Cayvie
Moderate: Eevee
Town: Shraeye
Shraeye:
Scummy: Lekkit, Cayvie, Eevee
Town: Ashersky
Eevee:
Scummy: Cayvie, Shraeye (PoE here)
Moderate: Lekkit
Town: Ashersky
Cayvie:
Scummy: Eevee, Lekkit (PoE here)
Town: Ashersky! Shraeye! ***
Lekkit:
*** No results
First off, big FoS Cayvie's way for finding two town, when PoE says that if Cayvie is town, there can only be one other in that group, not two.
For the sake of this exercise, I'm going to include moderate reads in with scummy, only pulling out the townie claims. To compile:
Cayvie 3/3 scum votes
Lekkit 4/4 scum votes
Eevee 3/3 scum votes
Ashersky 0/3 scum votes
Shraeye 1/3 scum votes
Here's the wine to this data: scum get to choose 1 person to be town, when they know that 2 of the 4 are scum, and 2 are town. Do they claim town reads on town, or on a scummate?
My personal belief is that they would claim town reads on town, and here's why: Scum are in a good position right now, and a little bit of bussing certainly wouldn't hurt - especially if things look to be moving towards one of their teammates. To try and maximize the opportunity to bus, they can't exactly claim town reads on their partners. Further, I put the question in terms of "towniness" for a reason. If you ask about somebodies scum read, they're more hesitant to give it because they don't want to start an unnecessary wagon. This is particularly true of scum v scum. But put in terms of townies, and they open right up.
All this then is just to say I think the above results are rather compelling. So here I'll FoS the top three... Which just so happens to coincide with my previous FoS list!
Cayvie, Lekkit, EeveeBut wait, there's more! Here I must draw attention back to ftl, our local investigator. See, I spent some time considering the uses of an investigator that gives results of Vegetable, Animal or Mineral. What purpose did he serve? What could he learn of value?
These are his results:
N1 - Robz, Vegetable
N2 - Lekkit, Animal
N3 - Nothing
ftl, correct me if I'm wrong, but did you block yourself via an item by any chance? An item that, in effect jailed you?
Anyway, Robz we know was town.
Lekkit, on the other hand, I have reason to believe is scum. Lekkit is animal. So amidst my post here I asked each of you directed questions based on my reads. Cayvie claimed Animal as well. Eevee claimed none, but closest to Animal. Ash claimed neither Mineral or Vegetable, although I admit I don't exactly fall in any of those three categories either, but I would like to hear more from him. Having posted this however, the point will be moot - but that's ok.
Here's my belief then on the use of ftl's cop role: Animals are scum. Ta-Da! No, but seriously, ftl, having you full claim at this point would be rather nice, because this is how I see things best working out:
We lynch Lekkit or Cayvie, and instruct CF to kill the other. You then investigate Eevee or Ashersky, your choice. Since I began writing this they've been having a back-and-forth, which leads me to believe for sure one is scum (I lean Eevee, but don't feel completely comfortable yet). Scum are left with a choice: Kill CF who, if left alive can kill them, or kill you. If we have a hidden doctor somewhere, he can secretly protect you tonight, keeping you alive.
This is, I think, our best course of action. There aren't many people I can consult in this town that I trust completely, but I would largely like to hear from Dsell, ftl and Shraeye. The rest of you I'm sure will have more than your share to argue with me about.
For now, I'll
Vote: Cayvie for being tops in my list for a plethora of reasons, and for having two town reads where she should only be able to have one.