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[Young Nick]

Personally, I am with most of the others here. The re-read terrifies me and it's not like I am drowning in free time anyway. I express my opinions but still struggle to get consistent reads in a game this big.  I have said where I stand and until that changes or I have better reason, I feel I have little to contribute.

My feelings towards Munch are barely enough to warrant a vote. I still would like to hear more from ashersky. It's that simple.

[Galzria]

Warning: This post is HUGE! Read on at your own risk:

Halfway through with my listed 8 that I wanted to reread (Dsell, TheMunch, Frisk, Shraeye, Cayvie, Voltaire, eHunt, Ashersky). There's sooooo much stuff to go through.

Here's what I have so far though:

******************************

Dsell:

He has cast his vote 5 times so far this game, on (in order): Joth (#204) - Morgrim (#216) - Axxle (#746) - Galzria (#1249) - Morgrim (#1468).
Only 1 of his votes is cast on someone I know to be town (myself), but his last vote on Morgrim happened during a time when the Grujah wagon was starting to take off - thus notably was NOT on confirmed scum.

The first quote that stuck out to me from Dsell was #268:

Also it's really true that I was extremely calculating as scum (I was in my second and third games, MIV and RMM1, respectively), but in a game this size there's too much content to analyze everything. I'm going to have to trust reads a bit more and look at specifics rather than the whole big picture, at least on day 1 and 2.

It reads to me like he's saying "In the past I've been calculating as scum, but this game is so large I won't be able to be that polished" - Basically, it's not an argument for why he's town, but rather why he'll play scum differently here than he has in the past.

The next post that really jumped out at me was #539:

Guys, yuma scum is way more subtle than this.

I really think I agree with this. The wagon on yuma grew scarily fast.

Did it? This game is huge. He's at L-7 (I could have missed some changes since the last vote count, but point stands, he's nowhere near a lynch). There's probably at least one scum on his wagon but I doubt they all piled on.

But even 1 scum on his wagon on D1 means that he's (very likely) not scum.

Here, he's completely ignoring (intentionally?) the idea that there is a decent chance that we're dealing with two scum teams. "If X has scum on his wagon, then X must be town" just isn't a legitimate argument to be making D1. Yuma's wagon took off fast - absolutely. But with or without scum onboard speaks nothing to Yuma's alignment.

The next post is #750, where he directly responds to Watno asking about Grujah:

Also, Dsell, dont you think the behaviour your pointing out with Axxle is even more extreme with Grujah?

I'll have to reread everything he's written. Has he been active on the rest of the site?

Near as I can tell however, this re-read never occurred, so I can't really tell if Dsell was just appeasing the masses, or just never got around to it.

In post #1249, he makes his case against me, and places Ashersky as #2, Grujah as #3. This is despite never really making a case against Grujah up until this time - a relatively safe place to put a partner. In the very next post (#1250), he even says not to put much stock in the other two choices:

Also my second and third votes are really not that serious, so don't put much stock in them at this point.

While I'm willing to set aside the "making a case on a townie" (me) side of things, the lack of interest on a now confirmed scum is a little bit more suspicious.

Now is where it gets a little dicey for Dsell. Everything up until this point has been mild scumminess at most nothing major. But starting with post #1434, Dsell starts redirecting hard from Grujah:

Hmm.. vote: Glooble again, as I got no better.

Yuma is strangly mad at me for being inactive, but now it seems a sincere town mad more than faked scum mad, esp with this second to last post.

Read over recent events and give an opinion on them, please.  You're here now -- you can contribute something.

I agree with this. We still have a little time, he's not our only option. I'm not sure Grujah is a great lynch today, guys.

#1468, right in the thick of things, falls back to Morgrim:

Vote: Morgrim because we need a reason to talk more before the soft deadline and because I think it's a bit more likely to hit scum. You'll note that this is a change from my 1st, 2nd, and 3rd scummiest list, where I had Grujah listed as 3rd. I just don't agree with that anymore. Grujah is seeming townier, and while he doesn't strike me as really, really obvtown, he does strike me as the completely usual Day 1 lynch...which nearly always winds up hitting a townie.

#1473:

Vote: Morgrim because we need a reason to talk more before the soft deadline and because I think it's a bit more likely to hit scum. You'll note that this is a change from my 1st, 2nd, and 3rd scummiest list, where I had Grujah listed as 3rd. I just don't agree with that anymore. Grujah is seeming townier, and while he doesn't strike me as really, really obvtown, he does strike me as the completely usual Day 1 lynch...which nearly always winds up hitting a townie.

What is your profile of the usual day 1 lynch?  Grujah doesn't seem like that to me.

He fits the profile because he's done something that nobody likes. In some games, it's a scumslip or mistaken phrasing, in some games it's lying, in this game it's being almost totally silent. It's the kind of thing that scum isn't going to do day one because it's just a mistake they just don't need to make, and they'll monitor their posts more closely to make sure they don't.

He's done something that's really indefensible, which gives everyone on the wagon the excuse to say, "Well he did X, so lynching him seemed like the right choice!" And what do you say to that? It's the kind of thing scum just doesn't (or hasn't) done Day 1 precisely because it's the kind of thing that gets people lynched.

#1474:

You cannot seriously think this is good scumplay from Grujah. If he was scum shying away from conversation he would have come back here so fast when there was much heat on him. And there has been for quite a while now.

I didn't say it was good scumplay.  Grujah did come back though, right when heat picked up on him.  I'm pretty sure I mentioned that earlier.  He didn't speak up until he had picked up several votes.

But my point is, don't you think scum Grujah would have responded sooner? Because it's way too dangerous to let a wagon form on you this late in the day as scum, and pretty much everyone has said something at some point about him lurking too much.

And #1480:

Vote: Morgrim because we need a reason to talk more before the soft deadline and because I think it's a bit more likely to hit scum. You'll note that this is a change from my 1st, 2nd, and 3rd scummiest list, where I had Grujah listed as 3rd. I just don't agree with that anymore. Grujah is seeming townier, and while he doesn't strike me as really, really obvtown, he does strike me as the completely usual Day 1 lynch...which nearly always winds up hitting a townie.

What is your profile of the usual day 1 lynch?  Grujah doesn't seem like that to me.

He fits the profile because he's done something that nobody likes. In some games, it's a scumslip or mistaken phrasing, in some games it's lying, in this game it's being almost totally silent. It's the kind of thing that scum isn't going to do day one because it's just a mistake they just don't need to make, and they'll monitor their posts more closely to make sure they don't.

He's done something that's really indefensible, which gives everyone on the wagon the excuse to say, "Well he did X, so lynching him seemed like the right choice!" And what do you say to that? It's the kind of thing scum just doesn't (or hasn't) done Day 1 precisely because it's the kind of thing that gets people lynched.

So you're arguing that it's OK to be totally silent?  That it's OK to lie?

If we don't lynch based on things that seem scummy, what do we lynch on?  "Well he did X" is ALWAYS an available excuse.  Should we never lynch then, since any valid reason for lynching also becomes an excuse if the lynchee flips town?

IMO, "he did X" is a good reason for people to vote for someone.  It requires taking a stance.  "Voting for him will give us info on others" is a way to avoid taking a stance, and a way to avoid any fallout if it's a mislynch, which is far better for scum.  It's different from voting "because he did X".

My profile for "usual day 1 lynch" is "player who fudges some wording, which is subsequently exaggerated as a scumslip".  Grujah hasn't done that.

PPE: I didn't realize that he had done that twice -- just saw it the most recent time.  Looks even better to me now.

Well, it just comes down to whether we want to punish bad behavior or if we want to lynch the mafia. One is better for the meta, one is better for town in the current game. And actually, I'm not totally sure what the right answer is. Maybe it IS ok to use the Day 1 lynch to punish people for anti-town behavior. All I'm saying is that it hasn't worked in the past, which leads me to believe that he may not be our best choice for lynching scum today. I believe that our best chance for lynching scum requires an eye for much more subtle play. Still rereading though, those timings are indeed interesting to me.

Whew. That's a LOT of deflection. If Dsell ISN'T scum, then that is really quite rough for him. In post #1484, Joth votes for Grujah putting him to L-2. In the very next post, #1485, Dsell changes tunes a bit...:

Alright, after a reread of his posts, I'm warming up to a Grujah lynch. I'm going to leave my vote on Morgrim until tomorrow, though, to foster discussion and make sure that Grujah isn't hammered before we can discuss everything.

The question that really has to be asked, is whether or not Dsell was a scumbuddy trying to deflect up until the point in which it became clear that Grujah was going to go down - at which point he started seeing the light - or whether Dsell was simply a misguided townie who really felt like we were pursuing a lynch that followed the pattern of 10 other unsuccessful D1 lynches. There's no doubt that Dsell realized how bad this all looked, because he opened D2 straight up acknowledging it:

I'm just gonna look so scummy today because I tried to derail the Grujah wagon and pushed the Morgrim one some. All I can say is that I picked the wrong time to start questioning "the system" because the system finally worked for us.

---
My overall verdict here is scummy. No doubt about it. However of the 4 people that I've read so far, he only ranks as scummy #2, not scummy #1, so I won't be putting my vote there. Still, I can't let his overall play slide by, so I am suspicious. The one thing Dsell has going for him, I won't mention at this time. It DOES lend him some town cred though - enough that I'm willing to consider the "misguided townie" rationale rather than the "redirecting scum" more than I might otherwise be willing to. Still, out of a scum rating of 100, he would land a solid 75.

******************************

Captain Frisk:

Let's move on to a slightly easier person now. Take a break, if you will. Frisk has voted just 3 times this game, on (in order): TheMunch (#457) - Shraeye (#1053) - O (#1449)
Again, only one of his votes lands on somebody I know to be town (O), but again his last vote comes at a time when the Grujah wagon was taking off - so notably not only is on town, but it's not on scum.

To me, Frisk's first particularly scummy statement doesn't come until #922, when he sums up what's happened in the game up to that point by saying "Nothing at all":

Like c'mon now, I don't even have multiple pages of "Recent Unread Posts." I used to be able to get that up to three pages in less than 24 hours.

The rest of f.ds is totally silent. And then, ZM2 starts and ends while I am gone. And then MXII starts before I even have a chance to see the pre-game sign up.

Why is the only thing that is happening here Mafia? Dark Ages came out! Go play Dominion, sheesh. All of you.

I ask that for three days, no one posts, I won't ask robz to mod-prod anyone and then maybe we could be on equal footing.  (Not a serious request.)

Just do what I did and skip it.

I think the summary is: nothing happened that you can't read later, and o may have been scummy.

Now you are caught up.

Now maybe there's some serious apathy going on, but c'mon. It's either really, really terrible town play to be ignoring the game for the first 1000 posts, or just scum not knowing that he doesn't need to really pay attention.

I recognize that bad does NOT equal scummy, but this caught my attention at the time, and did on the reread as well. This idea was just SO bad - it reminds me of Insomniac in BMV as his role of Jotheonah. In the Scum QT he said something like "I can't believe I got the whole town to take orders from scum - that was awesome" - Well, that's how I felt about CF's post #926:

Ok - so we all agree that no lynch is bad right - but plurality is hard.

How about this.  We rank everyone from 1 to 20 whatever, in order of who you would be willing to give your vote to.  Whoever gets the most points decides who lynch, and the rest of us go along with it?

After that however, nothing really jumped out until post #1449, where CF voted for O despite the growning wagon on Grujah and his (imo) growing and apparent scumminess:

Vote: O - for not voting this close to deadline.
O's a strange fellow, so I never feel confident in my reads.

Secondary: Voltaire - for pushing that we all push secondary / tertiary votes.  This feels like scum trying to give themselves an out to steer away from town consensus.

Tertiary: Shraeye - reasons given during my initial vote.

And that's it. CF has had the fewest posts of everybody that I've looked at so far, and far too many of those posts have said... nothing. It's very, very hard to distinguish between this CF and scum CF of the last 1001 games, so I'm really, really wary on this front. However, his scumminess certainly isn't overwhelming, and he's probably #3 of my 4 reads so far. Out of 100, he's probably sitting at 60 (50 is neutral, fwiw). CF really, really needs to start participating more. I want to believe that he's town, and I want to believe he can be a real boon - but I just haven't seen it this game.

******************************

Voltaire:

Voltaire is my towniest read so far out of the 4. He's voted 6 times this game, on (in order): O (#374) - igbtennis (#461) - Yuma (#504) - Captain_Frisk (#931) - Ashersky (#1097) - Jotheonah (#1175)
Once more, only 1 vote on a confirmed townie, however it was his very first post of the game, and was admittedly RVS. Here, his last vote is on Jotheonah, but was placed before NOT voting Grujah was a scummy action.

The most suspicious exchanges that Voltaire had - to me - was in the mid 400's, where he made things *really* confusing by saying Eevee multiple times when he meant Cayvie... and then I remember myself in M-VI, and I realize that those mistakes read really, really townie to me for some strange reason...  Post #491:

Hey, I was going to try to disguise this but then I decided not to.

It's particularly bad for me (not specifying further) to be voting on a townie lynch, so, until I'm absolutely sure, I'm probably going to duck out of a lot of wagons before lynch.

That's... weird...

really really weird.... vote: cayvie

Wug? And here I was writing a "cayvie is probably town" note!

Yuma, why do you think that looks scummy? Same to eHalc if that's what you meant.

Because it's bad town play if you're town and it's obvious so you must be scum...

...which I don't actually think makes sense, so no vote from me, but really, Fos: Eevee.

And Post #493:

for me: cayvie is normally so clear and specific in her writing... she has a focus and communicates it well. that is what she is known for by me. This is vague and confusing and is atypical for her. Really I have no idea what she is trying to communicate. If she can explain what it means in more depth I would consider removing my vote.

Mmmmm I don't like this one bit. Let's not compound a mistake. Eevee, shhhhhhh!

In both of these cases, he said "Eevee", but meant "Cayvie" - and in that perspective, what he said is a lot less scummy. He's basically telling Cayvie not to let people role-fish for more information. Cayvie obviously said something in relation to her role that she felt people should be aware of. If she wanted to say more, she would have. I haven't reread Cayvie yet, so I won't speak to how I feel about the Cayvie situation as a whole, but specifically relating to Voltaire, I find the mixup in the names (and the confusion it caused afterward) to be distinctly townie. Scum wouldn't be so careless.

The next quote that stood out to me was #538, which is actually embedded in a quote under my Dsell section. It's regarding the fact that Voltaire is currently (at that time) voting for Yuma, yet thinks that there is likely one scum on the wagon:

Guys, yuma scum is way more subtle than this.

I really think I agree with this. The wagon on yuma grew scarily fast.

Did it? This game is huge. He's at L-7 (I could have missed some changes since the last vote count, but point stands, he's nowhere near a lynch). There's probably at least one scum on his wagon but I doubt they all piled on.

At this time, we really hadn't talked about the idea that there might be multiple scum teams, so this statement either A) assumes that there are (it doesn't read that way to me), or B) doesn't make a lot of sense, because it means he's voting for somebody he thinks is town. Seeing has he shortly thereafter claims that he is happy with his vote on Yuma, B) is kinda out of the window. This means that Voltaire was banking on A) for this quote to make sense... and well, I don't think that he's WRONG, I just think that it's a little odd that he would naturally make this assumption without actually making this argument. Makes me slightly concerned that he may BE part of a second scum team. Still, it's a very light argument imo, and doesn't come close to putting a dent in the overall town read I have from Voltaire across all his posts.

The last post that stood out to me from Voltaire as a little bit scummy is #638:

OK, looks like Voltaire went offline before reading the question I just asked. But anyway, vote: Voltaire.
[snip]
PPE: voltaire is back but seems to confirm that what I read is what he meant by "just come out with it, man!" No, I wasn't describing you. But he says that someone else hinted (besides insom) that he was particularly scummy among the yuma-wagon. I don't remember that; if you find that it will justify your paranoia to me.

Insom jumps on me at 509, Axxle says he was going to find me scummy due to the cayvie/Eevee mixup in 517 (but doesn't after I explain). I read you today posting about this, then sure enough, Insom repeats his claim. It's just me liking to avoid being the D1 lynch, because what fun is that? But it's good for the town. No biggie.

As for another poster, looks like it was Axxle. What you're seeing is me supressing OMGUS (see: the whole "us" debacle in ZM1) after my scumhunting on Yuma starts to draw votes at me. Sometimes I fire off short, sarcastic posts and I've been trying to curb that as not helpful, to town (or, less importantly, my own odds of living). From your earlier comments on limited posting to more substantive areas, I'd take it you agree. Perhaps not with me, but the instinct.

In particular here, the second paragraph reads a little bit like scum admitting to bad behaviour, and that he's making a concerted effort to contain and change that before he costs himself and his team. I don't know, it just didn't read as very genuine to me. But it certainly isn't what I would consider to be a "case" for being scum.

All in all, there just wasn't much here that started flashing lights at me. The biggest knock I have against him is that he's been so completely absent. He missed the Grujah lynch, so I don't know how he really would've felt about it going in, and he hasn't been back since then. Most of his early game though really struck me as town. Certainly there were times where he wasn't clear in what he was saying, but it did look to be town searching for scum. Out of a scale of 100, he's probably sitting at 45 for me right now. It would probably be 40 (or lower) if he was actually around. Still, I DO read what he's done as town.

******************************

This is already a fricken' BOOK. I really do apologize. I'm going to make my case on my biggest scum read in a new post so it doesn't get buried in this mammoth. It'll take me awhile to compile though, and I need to grab dinner first.

[TheMunch]

Some people have called me out for being super hedgy today and for that I apologize; I honestly am not trying to be hedgy and I do have opinions but perhaps the way I am going about saying them is overly negative and as such they are not the most receptive arguments.  So I want to try to sum up my stance thus far in a way that is as coherent and concrete as possible.

I started off the day voting for joth.  I voted for him because he had very hastily pushed attention off wagon without giving any reason as to why.  This was not because I disliked the idea of looking off wagon, but because I thought that the way he went about expressing his idea was scummy.  However, I did unvote once I was satisfied that he had given enough of a reason to justify himself.

After this was cleared up, I moved on to actually develop my own opinion about the on/off wagon debate.  I was noticing that some people were catagorically giving immediate town cred to everyone on the Grujah wagon just because he flipped scum.  I feel this is irresponsible.  This is not to say that no one is deserving of towncred on the Grujah wagon, in fact I tried to make it a point that I did feel that some were deserving.  These were people that I felt actually gave some kind of reason for voting, namely eHalcyon, Eevee, ftl, and joth.  For everyone else on the wagon, I wasn't trying to attack you for being on the wagon, thats just silly.  I was just trying to say that I dont have a read just given your participation on the wagon.

With examining the wagon "complete" I would say that I was prepared to also look off wagon.  I could see why this is confusing or missed given that I had voted for joth after he pushed looking off wagon, and then I preceded to look at the wagon.  However, I dont think its particularly unreasonable for me to actually look at the wagon after saying "not everyone deserves town cred" and then decide who to actually give the town cred to; I just could have made this argument clearer.

As for the HUGE post Galzria made, I really really like his case on Dsell.  Maybe Galzria is just very persuasive but I think this is a strong case.  I know I've been called out for defending grujah but me going "sorry guys I dont have a read" is nothing like the evidence put forth by Galzria here. Vote: Dsell

[yuma]

Vote: Dsell

Try bolding it to make sure it is noticed.

[TheMunch]

Vote: Dsell

[Dsell]

The only thing about Galz' case on me that I would argue is that the post where I say "I'm warming up to a grujah lynch" was after Galz posted about Grujah coming and defending himself after people voted for him. So it was not that I saw the writing on the wall and tried to make myself look better (I would have just voted for him if that were the case), it was just that evidence came up that I had not seen before.

But other than that, I do realize that my position is not good at all. I'll look back over day 1 and day 2 looking especially at the off-wagon people and do some analysis from my perspective too.

[Galzria]

The only thing about Galz' case on me that I would argue is that the post where I say "I'm warming up to a grujah lynch" was after Galz posted about Grujah coming and defending himself after people voted for him. So it was not that I saw the writing on the wall and tried to make myself look better (I would have just voted for him if that were the case), it was just that evidence came up that I had not seen before.

But other than that, I do realize that my position is not good at all. I'll look back over day 1 and day 2 looking especially at the off-wagon people and do some analysis from my perspective too.

Well, and like I said, my general feeling is that despite the case, I believe you were more likely to be "misguided townie" and not "redirecting scumbuddy". At least, I think it's at least 50/50 on that alone. Still, I'm trying to present each case in it's entirety, regardless of how I feel.

My #1 scumread will have to wait until tomorrow though. I just don't have the energy to do another one of those posts tonight. Hint: It'll be on Munch (although his latest post read more town again to me, but... Eh, I'll still post up to what I had and then readjust from there if necessary).

[eHalcyon]

@Galz's big post:

- I think much of your case against Dsell is repeating what I post, but with actual quotes instead of just post numbers.

- Interesting thoughts on CF.

- Was post #491 a name mixup?  His "Fos: Eevee" was in response to Eevee's post.  If it was supposed to be reducing the vote to a FOS instead, why didn't he unvote?  I am too lazy to click back and re-read right now, so maybe it was a mixup after all.




@Munch -- It would help a lot if you also looked off wagon.  Unless I missed it, the only analysis you've done so far is ON the wagon, and it was largely downplaying the success of it. 





@Galz again -- hm, I wonder if you have anything new to bring to the table that I haven't already mentioned.  I hope so.  Or maybe you'll just present it in a way that's easier for everyone to follow.

[Dsell]

All I can say is I would have to be pretty dumb to redirect THAT much from fellow scum on day 1.

Like I said before, "the system" worked for us this time. It just came at a time when I was trying to fight the system.

I'm gonna do some of my own analysis tomorrow but I would not be surprised if I end up sheeping Galz/eHal tomorrow on Munch. The only other thing I wanted to point out after some very cursory reading is that Captain_Frisk is the only person alive right now who ended the day with a vote on a confirmed townie (O).

Where is Morgrim? And the other people who've said nothing?

[eHalcyon]

All I can say is I would have to be pretty dumb to redirect THAT much from fellow scum on day 1.

Like I said before, "the system" worked for us this time. It just came at a time when I was trying to fight the system.

I'm gonna do some of my own analysis tomorrow but I would not be surprised if I end up sheeping Galz/eHal tomorrow on Munch. The only other thing I wanted to point out after some very cursory reading is that Captain_Frisk is the only person alive right now who ended the day with a vote on a confirmed townie (O).

Where is Morgrim? And the other people who've said nothing?

Fair point on the first, but there can be WIFOM.

I still don't think Grujah was looking like our regular day 1 mislynch.  I explained that on day 1 when you made that argument.

Exploring the interactions with confirmed townies would be a good way to go.  Someone should look into that.

Likewise, someone should figure out who has been lurking.

I would do these things but things are getting somewhat busier for me IRL, and there are also RMM3 things to take care of.

[eHalcyon]

i have a few theories as to why this day seems to be going more slowly

1) we lynched scum d1, so the scum are being extra cautious

2) we lynched scum d1! this ruins our usual D2 routine of attacking the players who were most vocally pushing for whichever townie got lynched d1.

3) d1 is dauntingly large to analyze. i'm gonna try a full reread tonight, with context. but it's big.

1 is interesting.  Who is lurking?

2 should make it easier.  It sure felt that way to me when I was writing my initial big post.

3 may be a factor, but you can start by reading the last IRL day or two, when Grujah wagon took off.

[Dsell]

Fair point on the first, but there can be WIFOM.

There could be WIFOM...or I could have been on the wagon and have pretty much no one suspecting me. But yes, I see what you're saying. I guess I see WIFOM (when used by scum, I mean) as a veil to hide behind when there is nothing better. End game, if the townies are somewhat clueless, you can run a WIFOM gambit and hope (or maybe give yourself at least a 50-50 shot) that they won't target you. But in this case, a veil is not needed to hide actions when there was a wall (the grujah wagon) to hide behind.

I imagine that one or more of his scumbuddies took that protection, and it'll definitely buy them some time, because something pretty radical would have to happen for me to consider lynching someone on the grujah wagon. I believe our chances of hitting scum off wagon are just so, so much better.

This is all considering just one scumteam. I have no idea if there's one or more (I was definitely coming from the perspective of just one in that quote Galzria posted...just wasn't thinking about it!), but clearly a member of an opposing scumteam would have no problem being on the grujah wagon. Now I'm kinda rambling because I need sleep. But basically there is probably scum on the wagon, but there has GOT to be scum off the wagon, and that's where we should look today.

[Galzria]

@Galz's big post:

- I think much of your case against Dsell is repeating what I post, but with actual quotes instead of just post numbers.

- Interesting thoughts on CF.

- Was post #491 a name mixup?  His "Fos: Eevee" was in response to Eevee's post.  If it was supposed to be reducing the vote to a FOS instead, why didn't he unvote?  I am too lazy to click back and re-read right now, so maybe it was a mixup after all.




@Munch -- It would help a lot if you also looked off wagon.  Unless I missed it, the only analysis you've done so far is ON the wagon, and it was largely downplaying the success of it. 





@Galz again -- hm, I wonder if you have anything new to bring to the table that I haven't already mentioned.  I hope so.  Or maybe you'll just present it in a way that's easier for everyone to follow.

Well, to be fair, I'm not exactly working with new source material, am I?

It's not really repeating your case, as going through post-by-post myself and seeing that posts X, Y and Z all stand out. X, Y and Z are never going to change, so there's a good chance that if they stood out for you, they will for me to. My posts can either be presented as above, or "Dsell: What eHal said".

I couldn't quote you off the top of my head every post # you referenced, so maybe I am using the exact same ones. I don't know. I'm just trying to be exhaustive when I make my post, and hopefully in the process perhaps I find a nugget of something overlooked before.

Anyway, my point is that - if you felt you were complete in your research and cases... Then it should be unsurprising to you that someone going back and looking at the same material draws the same conclusions. One thing that I AM doing is taking each players votes overall, so we can see exactly if and when they voted for town/scum both. Complete interactions and timing will hopefully paint a brighter picture. Just don't expect anything shockingly new, you know?

[Captain_Frisk]

Galz, can you explain a little bit about how you decided to analyze those people?

Most of them were off the grujah wagon - so they naturally had suspicion, but you added eHunt from on the wagon.

The people you left off your list, but were also off the wagon were:

Insomniac
Young Nick
IGBTennis
Sparky

[Galzria]

Galz, can you explain a little bit about how you decided to analyze those people?

Most of them were off the grujah wagon - so they naturally had suspicion, but you added eHunt from on the wagon.

The people you left off your list, but were also off the wagon were:

Insomniac
Young Nick
IGBTennis
Sparky

I already did in a previous post - they're simply people that I've either had scum reads on, or completely null reads. I mentioned that the list wasn't exhaustive in that it didn't include every player, but I don't have time to sit down and do a post like that on every person, so I'm focusing on where I'm most uncomfortable with what I have - or have not - seen to this point. Being on or off the wagon had little bearing, although I am looking at each person through the filter of interactions with Grujah, noting other general scummy behaviour that I notice.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm just impressed that you're tracking this game close enough to have notable scum reads on 8 different people.

[Galzria]

I'm just impressed that you're tracking this game close enough to have notable scum reads on 8 different people.

I don't. I have scum reads on a handful. The others I have complete null reads on. But I spent 4 hours on this thread last night, and only got through 4 of the 8 people I wanted to, and only got 3 write-ups in. Going over 20 people would take entirely too long (although I will continue to work to that end) - so I picked somewhere to start. If I get through those 8, I'll move on to others. But for now it seems more prudent to spend what time I DO have compiling information on people I know little about, or think have been scummy.

[Galzria]

I'm just impressed that you're tracking this game close enough to have notable scum reads on 8 different people.

And yes, I am following the game close enough to have a plethora of reads. Something I noted in my section on you that I wished you would seem to be doing as well, but haven't appeared to as of yet.

[Watno]

Regarding looking offwagon vs on-wagon: While I think its very much possible that scum was on Grujahs wagon (both from his own as well as possible other scumteams), the main thing we have to consider here is that it's very likely that at least some scum players didn't vote for Grukah because thesy were hoping to prevent the lynch. Therefore, it makes sense to look for people who didn't vote Grujah for strange reasons or behaved strangly regarding his lynch in other ways.

Regarding the wine, I thin it's better to agree on not drinking (that seems less likely to have side effects). Apart from that, I agree with the way Galz propoases to handle it

Vote: ashersky for proposing no lynch as the Grujah wagon began to take off.

Can I ask a question of the group?

Is it possible that, in a game this size, with the unknown plethora of roles, that a no lynch may in fact be helpful?

Here's my thinking: we've all complained to some degree about the size of this thing, right?  Lynching only reduces the size by one, and the lynch will offer limited information.  On the flip side, it's possible the night will result in way more information to discuss, and could cull the herd by more than one.

I don't mean to sound like I don't want to lynch someone, or even that there aren't reasonable targets.  It's more that I'm wondering and would like to hear from others on the idea of taking this game into the night phase sooner rather than later, via a majority no lynch vote, since we can't seem to come to agreement on a lynch.

If the lynch for the sake of info argument can be made, I think a no lynch for the sake of night info can be made as well.

WE LYNCHED SCUM D1 WOOOOOOOO!

Yeah, saw this coming once Grujah flipped.  I will note that I was voting for a lynch, not "no-lynch" at day's end, so it wasn't like I was really pushing for it.  I preferred lynching, and especially mafia!  I've been in both games with D1 scum lynches now.  Oh yeah!

I agree that joth trying to steer everyone away from the wagon is ultra-scummy, and will vote: joth as well.  Especially since, of course, he was on the wagon, so it's a deflect away from himself.

Somehow I had missed this response to Cuzz vote. This defense doesn't make me feel bad with my vote. Basically "I dropped the idea when i noticed the lynch was inevitable and jumped on the wagon"

So I wanted to at least compile all of the voting reasons for the Grujah votes.  Because ehunt voted so long about on Grujah, I have him listed that he didn't give a reason but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that it was explained earlier, I just didn't bother hunting for it.  I didn't quote people, I just copy pasted their responses and put them in quotes below.  This was less work for me.  Ok here it is:

Glooble Votes Grujah in 479 for "showing up, voting on me, and disappearing."
ehunt Votes Grujah in 1295 without giving a reason.

WAGON START:
1375: (Yuma) "I will change my vote to someone with 2 votes on them to see if we can start getting a consensus, but everyone that has 2 votes I have a town read on except Grujah"
1386: (Galzria) "I agree. He was in one of my top 3, and we really should start looking to consolidate. Since my #1 choice (eHal) seems to be met with equal parts adamant opposition and slight consideration, it really doesn't seem to be a productive choice. So I'll vote where there we might get something going - the fact that it's not on a town-read makes it all the better for me."
1404: (eHal) "I think he has lurked hard, which is really unusual for him.  He returns just when it starts to heat up for him, and his posts read scummy.  This wagon has a decent chance of lift-off, and I have decent reads on most on the wagon so far (not sure of the vote count though).  Chance of lynch success does play a factor here, but Gruj's lurkiness is the major reason.  It's not like he has been V/LA -- his post history shows that he has been active in Cosmic Encounter, at least.  Why not drop in with some remarks during all of yesterday's drama?  Maybe because he is scum and thought it would be safer to let townies argue themselves to a mislynch."
1433: (Eevee) "Grujah's defence doesn't read genuine to me"
1445: (Morgrim) "because he is the most likely person to be lynched"
1479: (ftl) "I didn't realize that about the timing of his posts, that's pretty bad."
1484: (joth) "Galz (argument about post timing) has got me convinced too"
1495: (Axxle) "Yaaaay!" (he really wanted to hammer)

So that is a collection of all the voting reasons for Grujah and it seems really flaky.  Yuma starts the wagon because he felt he was the least town of the people with the most votes.  Galz abandoned his first choice for a "more likely" target, and this was only when he had 3 votes.  At least he said he didn't have a town read.  Ehal is the first to actually bring up some points but really is only beating on him for lurkiness.  Eevee gets a scum read from Grujah's defense.  Morgrim votes because Grujah is likely.  Ftl and joth sheeps posting pattern argument. Then axxle hammers.

I'm sorry for not being ecstatic that we lynched scum day 1 with a wagon like this.

Wow, i really don't like how you are displaying Grujahs lynch here. It gives me the feeling you're trying to discredit people voting for Grujah and I think by only referencing only the posts where people actually voted youre leaving out a lot of reasons. I certainly think your portrayal of eHalc being the first to actually give reasons is just wrong. Also, you leave out some people's votes, which i think is quite suspicious.

Also, since you were so interested in getting an informational lynch yesterday, wh are you not trying to make use of the information it got us?

I dont like how shraeye asks eHalc and Munch to stop "tunneling" on each other. While i agree that they shouldn't ignore others, i think an exchange between two players can give us a lot of information about both of them.

reread munch, didn't see anything that gave me a particular town vibe, vote: themunch

Is there anything that gives you a scum vibe? I dont think not getting a town vibe is enough for a vote.

I agree with Galz on what he says, especially about Dsell. I think Dsell saying scum wouldnt defend their buddy that much makes it more likely that he actually is scum doing so.

I' think I'll have to look at people getting a Morgrim lynch going yesterday a bit more, not sure wether I'll manage to do so today though

[ehunt]

I think it would be beneficial if more people did what Galzria did - picked a smaller list of folks and wrote out their positions in gory detail (instead of what normally happens, which is, you copy and paste the whole list of players from the beginning, and you try to say a little something about everyone, except, the vast majority of what you have to say is "no read, probably town, uh, i dunno," and no one benefits). If nothing else, the list of people whom you choose to include and not to include can be highly informative.

Galzria is more-or-less confirmed town to me, where I say more-or-less because of the conspiracy theory where he's a lying maniac who killed Glooble; however, I believe in this latter case he is doomed (because in that unlikely event, either he still has the wine, and he has to pass it on at some point, or he doesn't and he's lying about how often the wine gets passed - either way, his lie will be exposed as soon as someone else gets the wine, and I'm confident the wine has to be passed at least once per day or else it's broken). This makes me highly inclined to sheep his detective work. I don't like that I'm the only Gruj-wagoner on the Galz short-list but what are you going to do, waiting for his case so I can answer it.

I will write up Insomniac, Young Nick, and ibgtennis/theorel tonight. I can't commit to eight - we're not all Galzria. (note that the last two are exceptionally easy as they haven't posted a lot for IRL reasons).

Question: is there a non-painstaking way to insert more than one linked quotation in big posts? I don't know how to quote more than one post at a time without doing something ridiculous (starting lots of new posts by hitting the quote button and copy-pasting the html into a text document).

As far as DSell is concerned, I have a heart/head problem. In my heart he seems quite town - the only game I followed him was MIV where he seemed really different to me. But objectively it's hard to argue with Galzria's case - DSell's behavior relative to Grujah was really bad. Anyway, unvote for now - I have not reviewed Insomniac's interactions with Grujah at all. I think I will either revote for Insomniac or vote for DSell after my reviewing, barring another bombshell dropping.

[Galzria]

eHunt, I can't do those mega posts from my phone because I can't open the entire thread (for quotation purposes) - but even if you switched to say... 100 posts per page, it should still be manageable to track. Still, I did my reread first, in completion, and then went back and wrote my post. For tracking posts, I used the following meathod:

It's interesting doing this reread by spreadsheet. I won't be able to post it, but if others wish to follow this design, I find it quite helpful:

Across the top I list each player, with their names colored to match faction association (So O/Eevee/Glooble/myself are Green, Grujah is red). People I'm suspicious of I make orange.

Underneath each persons name I list their posts by #. I fill the background of each cell using light red if the post associated with known scum, light green if associated with known town, and for those I'm researching, light orange if the post just felt scummy to me.

At the end, I've got a visual representation of how people have interacted with known alignments, down to the posts in which they did so. I could probably take it a step further to bold post #'s that contain votes, so that's easyto reference as well.

It's not perfect, and it takes a little time to produce, but it's leaving me feeling good about where people stand and how I feel about them. Unfortunately, I've been dragged away by the GF, so it's still a work in progress for me. But I encourage others to do something similar. In a game this size it's really helping me sort things out.

At that point, when I went back to write my post I could easily reference by post #, and just do ctrl+f finds on the numbers themselves. Even if you don't open 'all', tracking at 100 posts per page should make grabbing each quote not terribly difficult.

Alternatively, you could keep a Word Document with each of the quotes as you go along... But that's massive and messy.

[shraeye]

For tracking posts, I used the following meathod:

You and your meathods.  I love it.

[Robz888]

Per request, opening post was updated with current information.

[Young Nick]

How many games has ashersky played in before this one? How about theMunch? Dsell?

All three seem to have the most suspicion on them. Knowing how experienced they are will make a big difference in determining whether their behavior is because they are newbs, scum, or both.

[Galzria]

How many games has ashersky played in before this one? How about theMunch? Dsell?

All three seem to have the most suspicion on them. Knowing how experienced they are will make a big difference in determining whether their behavior is because they are newbs, scum, or both.

Easiest way to answer this:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am4-kXAplaK1dDhtRXBJNS1nYVR3U2dxSVhHTnJwb0E