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[Insomniac]

Soft deadline then?  When?

I don't mind yuma's proposal of next Wednesday night. I imagine the usual suspects are going to pretty much ignore it though.

Frisk, please say stuff about how you feel about the wagons and the people and stuff.

Does everyone think my case on Voltaire is bad? I notice it didn't make it into any of the summaries.

I think your case on him is horrible I think my case on him is far better

[Cuzz]

I'm not sure I quite get the soft-deadline suggestion. Are we trying to actually lynch someone by then or not? If not, then I think people will be unable to really pretend as though it's a real deadline and act the same way.

It reminds me of when you try to play poker with jellybeans instead of money. You can pretend it's the same game, but the stakes just aren't the same, and it's the stakes that really matter.

I might really be missing something though. Can you explain a bit more, yuma?

[eHalcyon]

To be perfectly clear, I'm not saying they are sketchy entirely because they voted for a different reason.  I'm saying they are sketchy because they seemed to have jumped on him for no reason, and then backed off without explaining.  Not only till just recently did glooble actually comment on that, and If you saw my response, I still wasn't happy with it.

OK, fair enough.

It was a mess because it grew incredibly quickly and died for no reason.  I thought he was scummy; the wagon was a mess for the reasons why it formed and disbanded, myself excluded; I can believe Yuma was being scummy, then vote for him thus participating in the wagon, without participating for the reasons the others were, which I disagree with.  Yuma is allowed to be defensive; he probably shouldn't have exploded though.  He was way too concerned he was going to die from that wagon and "I'm too important and if I die, town is going to regret it" is not a good defense.

Yeah, I don't buy this.  You can say it was a mess that it disbanded for what seemed like no reason to you -- that is OK.  But you think it was a mess that it grew quickly?  You thought yuma was being scummy, and others may have felt the same.  While you might exclude yourself because you know your role, the rest of us don't have that luxury.  From our point of view, this is pure hypocrisy.  You are saying people are suspicious for doing exactly what you did.

Being concerned with dying is not a scumtell.  Nobody wants to die, not even vanilla townies.  I don't fully remember the posts from that time, but yuma has gone on record as saying that he did not express himself at all in the way you suggest he is.  You are mischaracterizing him.

First off let me say I dont know that O is town; I dont know what you know.  He has become civil and I am able to deal with him now but that doesn't mean hes actually contributed.  He has said nothing of value enough for anyone to have a read on him, imo.  But that doesn't mean it is completely wrong for town to want another town dead.  If that town is contributing poorly, somehow disrupting the game, and being a bad townie, then it is quite fathomable to want another townie dead.  Contribution is paramount and O hasn't provided any.

I bolded the relevant parts.  You said that you were voting for him because of his playstyle, not because you thought he was scum.  The implication is that either you think he is townie or you have no read on him.  If you thought he was scum, that would certainly be a reason to vote for him.  You said that wasn't the reason, ergo you don't think he looks particularly scummy.  And then you say you would like to see him dead.

Do you not see what is wrong with that?

If a townie is being a really bad townie, the better attitude is to want them to play better, not for them to die.

In any case, O is not being particularly helpful, but he is far from being a hindrance.  You are mischaracterizing his play as well.

I was on the ehunt wagon.  I was on it cause I thought he was being scummy.  I am linked to it and anyone can reread and see it.  Not trying to distance myself from anything; no regrets.  That being said, my point was that the ehunt wagon didn't really ever amount to anything and I dont think it has any value.  Thats all.

Why doesn't it have value?  If ehunt is scummy, he should be suspected.  If he is scum, he should be lynched.  The wagon has value in that way.  Maybe you want it written off as worthless because you were on the wagon and he's town?

This isn't what I am trying to accomplish.  I dont think we both mean the same thing when I say wagon, so let me be perfectly clear.  By wagon, I mean to say a group of people that voted for a particular person for some shared reason or over a shared period of time.  We have already had these wagons.  I am not attempting to make ANOTHER yuma wagon, or an ehunt wagon, or an O wagon.  What i'm trying to do is find out if we kill ehunt, or yuma, or O, which one of the wagons that has ALREADY HAPPENED will provide the most information if its target is dead.  Lets say we decide to kill yuma because it would provide the most valuable information; then I'm not nearly as concerned with the people that helped vote to kill (for the sake of flipping his card) as the people on the earlier wagons.  It is impossible to find scum day 1.  I want to make day 2 as informed as possible and "trying to figure out the most informative lynch" is precisely the way to do it.  In fact, it bothers me that you are so against the idea of trying to gain as much information as possible.  Kinda scummy to me.  Vote: eHalcyon

That is certainly what I mean by "wagon".  I don't see how there could be another definition.  And I'm saying that those wagons aren't all that informative because they are weak day one wagons.  The wagons that are most informative will be the wagon that leads to a lynch today and the wagons that form day 2 (and onward) based on today's activity (and subsequent activity).  All this examination of "which early day 1 wagons will be informative on flip" is useless.  NONE OF THEM are informative.

On the other hand, by trying to select a lynch based on what will be most informative, you give yourself (and anyone who joins you) a gift-wrapped excuse for why you lynched that player -- "for info".  You are trying to get info from an uninformative early day 1 wagon in exchange for the USEFUL info to be gathered from the actual lynch.

Your suggestion does not make day 2 more informed.  It makes it less informed.  The way to make day 2 more informed is to SCUMHUNT, not to try to guess at what is informational.  The latter is akin to talking theory all day long and complaining about how RVS is impossible.

Earlier I was just commenting for the sake of discussion, but now I am eagerly awaiting your response.

[eHalcyon]

Ok, here we go...

4. Grujah - still my top candidate. He has two substantive posts I found - the one voting for me for "playing just how I always play" and an analysis of everyone's metas, which would be such an easy way for scum to get in a long post without forming any opinions.
12. O - strong town read.

I'm with you all the way on Grujah. In fact, my vote is already on him. We have some time yet, so I'm gonna keep it there. But, coming up so close to the deadline, I'd really go with most lynches.
What? Could you please explain your read on O? I don't get a town vibe from him at all.
and now, mine
1. Ftl: I'm Ok with lynching him, I guess. Not optimal, though
2. Voltgloss: Looking pretty town
3. Eevee: I could lynch him
4. Grujah: PRIMARY LYNCH.
5. Insomniac: Looks ok, I guess. Would lynch him though
6. Glooble: I would also lynch him, but I wan to see an explanation first
7. Dsell: Would lynch him to.
8. Jotheonah: looks town
9. Young Nick: poor guy.
10. Voltaire: I would lynch him.
11. Axxle: Would lynch him too.
12. O: SECONDARY LYNCH
13. Cayvie: looking townish, but also scummy. meh, no read
14. Shraeye: Would lynch
15. Cuzz: no read
16. Yuma: meh, idk
17. igbtennis: no read
18. TheMunch: looks pretty ok, but I would still lynch him
19. Morgrim7: I would totally lynch him
20. EHalcyon: TERTIARY LYNCH A i'm ok with lynching him and he already has a wagon
21. Watno
22. Galzria
23. Captain_Frisk: not participating much, which isn't like him at all. very odd. scummy even TERTIARY LYNCH B
24. ehunt TERTIARY LYNCH C " eHal
25. ashersky: no read

Morgim is being a little less crazy than usual, but none of this makes sense anyway.  To sort out his list:

Town reads:
2. Voltgloss: Looking pretty town
8. Jotheonah: looks town

Null reads:
9. Young Nick: poor guy.
13. Cayvie: looking townish, but also scummy. meh, no read
15. Cuzz: no read
16. Yuma: meh, idk
17. igbtennis: no read
21. Watno
22. Galzria
25. ashersky: no read

"Looks OK but I would lynch him":
1. Ftl: I'm Ok with lynching him, I guess. Not optimal, though
5. Insomniac: Looks ok, I guess. Would lynch him though

"I would lynch him":
3. Eevee: I could lynch him
6. Glooble: I would also lynch him, but I wan to see an explanation first
7. Dsell: Would lynch him to.
10. Voltaire: I would lynch him.
11. Axxle: Would lynch him too.
14. Shraeye: Would lynch
18. TheMunch: looks pretty ok, but I would still lynch him
19. Morgrim7: I would totally lynch him

Scum reads:
4. Grujah: PRIMARY LYNCH.
12. O: SECONDARY LYNCH
20. EHalcyon: TERTIARY LYNCH A i'm ok with lynching him and he already has a wagon
23. Captain_Frisk: not participating much, which isn't like him at all. very odd. scummy even TERTIARY LYNCH B
24. ehunt TERTIARY LYNCH C " eHal

Town reads are fine, I guess.  Doesn't give much reasoning.

Null reads are fine too, although the comment on cayvie is... weird.

Seems a bit contradictory on ftl and Ins, more so on Ins.

The next section is... OK.

Scum reads all look opportunistic to me.



If it were anyone else I would find it scummy.  Of course, in this case I just find it Morgrim.

[Axxle]

One day Morgrim will be scum, and we're all going to die painful deaths.

[Axxle]

Also: come back to the shraeye wagon, it's lovely this time of day.

[eHalcyon]

At the people who think I am being helpful:

I mostly disagree.  I actually decided before game start that I would be less obsessive with this game than I was in MIII and MVI.  I am not taking any notes and I won't be compiling vote history.  I just can't afford the RL time to do that.

Not only that -- until the recent back-and-forth with Munchy, I have mostly been sitting on the side without taking much of a position.  The reason is that I haven't really had an opinion on the proceedings.  They all just look like general Day 1 "Accuse ALL the players" spats and wagons.  None of them looked interesting to me.

Much's "which wagon would be informative?" question seemed like a bad idea to me (for reasons already described) so I commented on it.  The discussion has grown, so this is an issue I can actually take a position on.

So I don't think I was being helpful before.  I think this discussion is productive though, and I'd be interested in others' thoughts on the matter.







To address another current event -- I don't think CF's suggestion is terrible.  We might lose out on the actual wagon, but all the lists do indicate players' positions.

I still don't think CF's suggestion is good.  That sort of info helps scum figure out which townies need to die (those who most people trust) and which ones can be set up to die (those who people suspect most).

Also, I have mostly null reads and I'm sure most people are in the same boat, so full list rankings are not actually that informative.

[Axxle]

Dammit, there goes my theory that eHalc is pretending to be helpful to make people think he's town but really isn't because he's scum.  time to reread someone elses posts.

[eHalcyon]

My town reads are still O and cayvie -- general instinct, can't know for sure.  I just get town vibe from them.

Although my vote is still on him, I am fairly neutral about jo.  Eh, Unvote.

I had a town read on Watno for his catch on jo, but I retract it now after recalling a similar MVI situation.  Watno is null read again.

I'm suspicious of TheMunch.  It seems to me he has mischaracterized several players now, in an effort to make them seem scummier -- yuma, O, and myself now as well (I was never against trying to gain info -- my position was that his method would not gain info).  Possibly he is just misinterpreting, but that's quite a few instances now.  So, he is suspicious.

Town read on Axxle.  His response in #957 looks genuine and scumhunty.

Very slight town read on ehunt, for not jumping down CF's throat.  In Conspiracy Theorist mode, CF could be scum and ehunt could be scumbuddy trying to calm people down before they all lynch his partner.

Null read on everyone else.  Volt is interesting because of his maybe-case on me, but I reserve judgement until he makes it.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 1.15

shraeye (3) -- Axxle, ftl
ehunt (2) -- Eevee, Jotheonah
O (1) -- shraeye
Glooble (1) -- yuma
TheMunch (1) -- Captain_Frisk
Grujah (2) -- Glooble, Morgrim7
Voltaire (2) -- Insomniac, ehunt
Captain_Frisk (2) -- Watno, Voltaire
eHalcyon (2) -- Voltgloss, TheMunch
Young Nick (1) -- cayvie
cayvie (1) -- Young Nick

Not Voting (8 ) -- Cuzz, Dsell, Galzria, ashersky, Grujah, ibgtennis, O, eHalcyon

With 25 alive it takes 13 to lynch. Day 1 deadline is Saturday, September 29th at 1:00 PM (EDT)

MORE CLARIFICATION: It was asked whether the list of possible roles is exhaustive. The answer is that the list is between 90% and 100% exhaustive. I am leaving myself a bit of room here, simply because some roles may have been combined with others, or tweaked in some way, or given additional powers that somehow cause them to fall outside of the realm of what's listed here.

[cayvie]

Man, just doing math in my head, and realized there's probably a bare minimum of six scum (one six-player scumteam) in this setup, and possibly as many as ten (with multiple teams and a SK and a cult or something).

[eHalcyon]

Man, just doing math in my head, and realized there's probably a bare minimum of six scum (one six-player scumteam) in this setup, and possibly as many as ten (with multiple teams and a SK and a cult or something).

If there's a cult, it might start off with few scum and the expectation that it will grow. :|

cayvie, who do you find scummy right now?

[cayvie]

Man, just doing math in my head, and realized there's probably a bare minimum of six scum (one six-player scumteam) in this setup, and possibly as many as ten (with multiple teams and a SK and a cult or something).

If there's a cult, it might start off with few scum and the expectation that it will grow. :|

cayvie, who do you find scummy right now?

Ooh.

Disappointingly, I don't have any particularly strong day 1 scumreads.

I tend to give newbies to the forum the benefit of the doubt, but your case on TheMunch has some merit.
shraeye... acted weird in a way that's difficult to interpret.
I do not find ehunt scummy, like a lot of people do.
I don't find Morgrim scummy either.

I don't have any reads strong enough for me to want to lynch them over a lurker, basically.

[jotheonah]

I don't know how I feel about being one of Morgrim's only 2 town reads in a town of 25.

[Dsell]

My town reads are still O and cayvie -- general instinct, can't know for sure.  I just get town vibe from them.

Although my vote is still on him, I am fairly neutral about jo.  Eh, Unvote.

I had a town read on Watno for his catch on jo, but I retract it now after recalling a similar MVI situation.  Watno is null read again.

I'm suspicious of TheMunch.  It seems to me he has mischaracterized several players now, in an effort to make them seem scummier -- yuma, O, and myself now as well (I was never against trying to gain info -- my position was that his method would not gain info).  Possibly he is just misinterpreting, but that's quite a few instances now.  So, he is suspicious.

Town read on Axxle.  His response in #957 looks genuine and scumhunty.

Very slight town read on ehunt, for not jumping down CF's throat.  In Conspiracy Theorist mode, CF could be scum and ehunt could be scumbuddy trying to calm people down before they all lynch his partner.

Null read on everyone else.  Volt is interesting because of his maybe-case on me, but I reserve judgement until he makes it.

I'm having a big WIFOM problem right now because it kinda seems to me like the people who make mistakes and mischaracterize people and draw attention to themselves on D1 tend to be town. Scum just does not need to put their necks out there like that. They only need to make as few waves as possible (that doesn't mean being quiet or avoiding suspicion completely though!) and let the town blow up on itself. So when I see people making "mistakes" or making large mischaracterizations (with a few exceptions, I guess), it reads somewhat town to me. Not good town, not good play, but these just tend to be the kind of people who get themselves lynched and then flip town.

As a concrete example, in MIV, when I was mafia, Theorel misrepresented me a couple of times (he was town) on D1. I REALLY turned this on him, though to be honest I would have done the same as town too. The point is, he was exaggerating my words a bit (even though his read was totally right!) and he turned up town. So the "obvious" scummy reads are just not always right.

Even saying this may be bad for the meta, but these are my thoughts. So because of this, I teeend to think that Shraeye and TheMunch and maybe some others in similar situations are not great lynches.

[TheMunch]

Ok eHalcyon, I think I see the problem.  I think we agree more than you lead on initially, so I'll give you an unovte for now and try to explain myself again.  Let me start off by saying, while I like the back and forth, as a new player I cant help but feel it is incredibly dangerous.  I fear explaining the same thing in 3 different ways to try to make you understand is only going to end with me getting caught in an unintentional contradiction that I really would rather not get lynched for.

Ok the Yuma wagon.  I need to pick a better word than mess.  I'm not gonna say mess at all cause that seemed to be part of the confusion.  My problem wasn't that it just that it grew quickly, or just that it disbanded for what seened like no reason, it was the combination.  I saw a bunch of people jump on him for rolefishing (which as a new player, took me a while to figure out why that was so obvious to everyone else).  But then as he was defending himself (the part where I claimed to have become more suspicious of him) thats when everyone backed off of him for an "honest mistake."  It is the disparity between me finding his defense suspicious and everyone else completely buying it.

I'm not going to talk about O anymore.  I've already conceded it was a noob mistake to let my personal fellings about him as a person and his playstyle affect whether or not I wanted to see him die.

When I talk about the value of the ehunt wagon I'm talking about the value of information to be gained by ehunts death if we look at the wagon.  This is when I figured out that I probably agreed with you more than I originally thought.  At the end of your post you argue that you dont think there is any informative lynch from day 1; I think I'm coming to that conclusion slower than you are.  I am literally saying in all 4 cases that I want there to be information to be gained from the wagons that have formed but when I go over each wagon I seem to come to the conclusion that there wasn't as much conclusive with the wagons as I wanted there to be.  This is why yesterday I made the post asking the question (874) if they saw any wagons with the information that would be useful to us on D2.

[TheMunch]

unvote, forgot to bold

[Voltaire]

Also: come back to the shraeye wagon, it's lovely this time of day.

Roomy enough for two, apparently.

Man, just doing math in my head, and realized there's probably a bare minimum of six scum (one six-player scumteam) in this setup, and possibly as many as ten (with multiple teams and a SK and a cult or something).

If there's a cult, it might start off with few scum and the expectation that it will grow. :|

cayvie, who do you find scummy right now?

I put the minimum at 6 non-town-alligned players (5 mafia and 1 (nerfed) cult leader is, I think, the smallest setup that matches the information we have/might be balanced).

I'm having a big WIFOM problem right now because it kinda seems to me like the people who make mistakes and mischaracterize people and draw attention to themselves on D1 tend to be town. Scum just does not need to put their necks out there like that. They only need to make as few waves as possible (that doesn't mean being quiet or avoiding suspicion completely though!) and let the town blow up on itself. So when I see people making "mistakes" or making large mischaracterizations (with a few exceptions, I guess), it reads somewhat town to me. Not good town, not good play, but these just tend to be the kind of people who get themselves lynched and then flip town.

[snip]

Even saying this may be bad for the meta, but these are my thoughts. So because of this, I teeend to think that Shraeye and TheMunch and maybe some others in similar situations are not great lynches.

This is the way I think as well. You'll note that I have both of them down as "town reads" in my post.

[ehunt]

big V/LA coming up, although maybe I will have internet after all.

unvote. I think it's odd that Voltaire wrote up a summary of the game that didn't include the fact that a couple folks were voting for him. I decided it's town-odd instead of scum-odd. When you're summarizing a game, you maybe don't include votes you think are minor or not part of the major story-arc. If you're scum and someone's voting for you, you know for a fact that that vote is really important to the plot of the game and worthy of being included in a summary. If you're town, I'd think you'd still think the votes on you were important, just because everyone's narrative of the game revolves around themselves a little, but at least there's a chance you could think the vote was unimportant enough that you could leave it out of a summary. Of course Voltaire could be WIFOMing me here, but I think it's a situation where it's genuinely difficult to think ahead - if Voltaire's scum, then in a matter of minutes, he calculated an answer to the question "what it would feel like to be summarizing this game if I were a townie" that I found convincing.

[Galzria]

FWIW Munch, I personally believe that looking at interactions D1, and then proceeding after an informational lynch, is the best philosophy for D1. I don't buy all the "You have to SCUMHUNT" arguments. The whole point is that without information (ie. Flips), there IS NOTHING to scumhunt. Scum isn't going to jump up and down going "Here I an! Look here! Hey, I'm scum over here!". Thus to me, the value of D1 is associations, and actions against "perceived" scumslips (real or otherwise, we won't know until later with... Wait for it... Alignment flips!).

In the end, I absolutely think an "informative" lynch is the best lynch to pursue D1. And I don't accept the argument that "but if everybody says it was for information, it's no longer informational", because the same can be said about any meathod "But if people were just voting him because he seemed scummy, or did scummy thing X, then there's nothing to analyze!". A lynch (and reveal) is going to do what it does, no matter how you come about the target. For me, I like lurkers, and informational lynches.

On the lurker side, Vote: Grujah. C'mon drinkin' buddy. I know you're busy, but you can do better than this.

[Voltgloss]

Galz, you really need to cure your phone's obsession with meathods.

[Watno]

Which reasons from other people do you agree with that you think ehunt is suspicious?  I don't think it's been very well fleshed out at all.

ehunt is currently discussing a bunch of the talking points so I'll give a response if necessary after all that has been said.

Can you explain why you need ehunt to say something before you can tell us the reasons you vote him for? You did already vote him, so the reasons should be there already.

Can you finally answer this, TheMunch?

[...]
This isn't what I am trying to accomplish.  I dont think we both mean the same thing when I say wagon, so let me be perfectly clear.  By wagon, I mean to say a group of people that voted for a particular person for some shared reason or over a shared period of time.  We have already had these wagons.  I am not attempting to make ANOTHER yuma wagon, or an ehunt wagon, or an O wagon.  What i'm trying to do is find out if we kill ehunt, or yuma, or O, which one of the wagons that has ALREADY HAPPENED will provide the most information if its target is dead.  Lets say we decide to kill yuma because it would provide the most valuable information; then I'm not nearly as concerned with the people that helped vote to kill (for the sake of flipping his card) as the people on the earlier wagons.  It is impossible to find scum day 1.  I want to make day 2 as informed as possible and "trying to figure out the most informative lynch" is precisely the way to do it.  In fact, it bothers me that you are so against the idea of trying to gain as much information as possible.  Kinda scummy to me.  Vote: eHalcyon

What do you mean by "for the sake of flipping his card"? That's not the information we're aiming for in a lynch.

Regarding why I pointed out joth's post about O being town: I think it might have been a scumslip, but I'm not convinced. His response (talking from O's perspective) makes it less likely. Still it's a point of suspicion for me, but not enough to merit a vote on its own.

Regarding ensuring we get a lynch: I agree that Frisks idea doesn't make much sense, but I'd be fine with going along what yuma suggested. It would require everyone participating though.

From Robz response about the role list I'd conclude there is no lyncher. Anyone disagreeing?

After reading through Frisks posts again, I have seen a lot of anecdotes from past games and saying nothing, plus a strange suggestion. I think my vote is in a good place with him.

[Grujah]

the lurker side, Vote: Grujah. C'mon drinkin' buddy. I know you're busy, but you can do better than this.

What can I do for you guys? Comment on what? I got a few spare hours right now.

Ashersky who did seem scummy seem less on re-scim, he did jump on two wagons (O and shareye, and shareye was one of misguided wagons ever) but I don't find it as bad as it seemed right away, he seems as scummy as any other who voted on shareye based on sarcasm. Sigh.

[Galzria]

the lurker side, Vote: Grujah. C'mon drinkin' buddy. I know you're busy, but you can do better than this.

What can I do for you guys? Comment on what? I got a few spare hours right now.

Ashersky who did seem scummy seem less on re-scim, he did jump on two wagons (O and shareye, and shareye was one of misguided wagons ever) but I don't find it as bad as it seemed right away, he seems as scummy as any other who voted on shareye based on sarcasm. Sigh.

I just wanna see some thought from you. You're a good townie when you're involved, but a better scum when allowed to stay behind the scenes.

Unvote

I actually have a few better places for my vote (I'll put together my case later today) - but I don't trust anybody in the shadows, especially when I know they can be more helpful. So talk!

[Galzria]

Galz, you really need to cure your phone's obsession with meathods.

My "mobile" speaks British, not American.