At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.
Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?
Well, when I was a scumling back in M-II, Robz and I killed Tables N1 on my call, and he flipped Cop. My reasoning was that the Morgrim wagon was 4 players (Morgrim self-hammered), including both Robz and myself. Killing somebody on the wagon would reduce to 2 scum in 3 players. Bad odds. So we lynched Tables who was not in our subset, and got lucky on the PR hit.
Here, we had 5 people lynching CF, 3 not. Again, if both scum are on the wagon, killing one member is ridiculous, because it makes the rest of the wagon 2/4 scum. The alternative would be to lynch off the wagon in this case - but that's not what happened.
So why lynch on the wagon? If there was 1 scum on and 1 off, your odds for scum in each subgroup are 1/3, and 1/5. If you are going to change the odds on either set, the latter makes sense. - And if BOTH scum were off the wagon, NK'ing somebody who was onboard is almost a must.
So: My conclusion is that the odds most likely stand as EITHER 1/3 & 1/4 OR 2/3 & 0/4 for the location of scum. In both situations we are more likely to hit scum off the wagon rather than on.
As to why Robz - Scum knew he wasn't scum. They knew he was playing "odd". I don't think they knew he was a PR, but they wanted to lynch somebody on the wagon and he was a good stab in the dark. I think they got lucky.
As for my suspicions: I'm strongly leaning towards Nick, but I can't yet put my finger on it. I'll need to review all of his posts. Eevee is a strong second choice given his over-the-top confidence on his reads - and the fact that while the CF wagon was steaming along, he kept pressure on another townie for lynch - me - and my wagon almost took off a few times. It felt like scum staying off a known town wagon, while pushing another - because he won't get called out until we're both killed and flip town, at which point it's lylo for town.