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[timchen]

@eevee: but why does the VT frisk not want to claim VT directly? Also, I got the feeling that mafia frisk might know what I was about pushing his wagon so he knew claiming PR there wouldn't help him.

I really thought frisk is at least 70% scum yestergameday. A few reasons:
(1) not claiming. Shouldn't a VT has nothing to hide, pretty much like eevee @M6? I really thought he was mafia and was forced to be in a position that he knew claiming PR wouldn't have helped him.
(2) #106. Strictly speaking frisk was not lying, but I thought he implicitly meant that this game (M7) might be the first game that we are against each other. But he knew we are against each other in M6. If I were in his shoes as a VT I wouldn't have said that in this game.
(3) He hasn't built up any systematic cases against anyone else. Mostly against Galzria, but I didn't find him pushing hard for it. At some place also said he is fine with eevee lynch.

[timchen]

Ok. But we cannot let frisk die in vain.

From his death I think we can distinguish people into three lists:
Wanted to lynch him: me, Galz, Robz, PPS
Ok to lynch him: SB, Manda
Unwilling to lynch him: eevee, YN

Where are the scums? They killed Robz. Suppose they didn't know that Robz was PR, does that imply that they are more likely not to be in the same group as Robz? Generally I would say yes.

However, scums might kill him afraid of his experience. It is also a bit strechy for the scums to stay away from a town's wagon for so long.

But I think we can say with some certainty that there is at most one scum on the wagon, not including SB. At this point my suspicion is on Manda and YN.

[Young Nick]

So first off, I have to let y'all know about my posting availability. Now that I am done with jury duty (it was a hung jury that was immensely frustrating) I am back to my normal job which has me up a lot earlier. As a result I am not up as late and thus cannot post as much. So I'll try to post when I can, but life is busy. 

As for the business. I can say that I should be considered in the "maybe willing to lynch C_F" group. The time crunch was hard and I wasn't sure if I could be the one to hammer someone that I had a slight-moderate town read on. Now that he has flipped town and we are analyzing wagons, I think I have to disagree with the common thought here. Not to invoke chaos, but I find it hard to be confident that the Mafia had one on the wagon and one not. I also find it hard to be confident that both were on or both weren't. It was such a weird day with last-minute drama that I honestly feel like they could have been anywhere. We were so desperate to lynch that they could have easily laid back and let the town do the work. Maybe they were paranoid about not getting a lynch and both were on.

It's hard to say for sure when it was such an unorthodox D1.

I still am not sold on S_B. His play would be nothing short of brilliant if he is Mafia. We have to ask ourselves if he is capable of brilliant play. I doubt he is, seeing as he's a newbie, but it is a scary thought to consider. His huge WIFOM post...it intrigues me. On the whole it makes me trust him more, but there is that chance that we are cutting him crazy slack.

At this time I want to hear more from manda than anyone else. She hasn't been too vocal recently.

And @timchen: I don't really see the subtle soft-claims that you're talking about. I know that it looks like confirmation bias to me, but if you saw it, I can't argue it. I can't imagine Mafia picked up on this. They probably just got lucky.

[manda2014]

Just got to computer. Substantial post coming.

[manda2014]

Okay. Lots to respond to here. Heeeere we go.

Concerning the supposed Robz softclaim, I never noticed anything that made him even seem like a PR, much less an actual softclaim. As far as him saying "don't vote PR," how does that make HIM seem like a PR? Like YN, this theory seems more like confirmation bias to me than anyone else. Obviously we don't want to lynch a PR. Anyone could have said that, and I doubt that's what made the mafia decide to make him their NK. The most plausible theory to me is that they're trying to get rid of the experienced players. This argument makes even more sense to me if one of the mafia IS an experienced player.

That being said, I'd say my suspicion at this point is mostly on Eevee. I don't have any solid analysis yet, I just feel like something about the way he's posting feels off. An example would be him getting really defensive in #733; there's no need to be very defensive if you're town. Like I said, though, I don't have any solid analysis yet, so who knows? My suspicion may change after I go through all his posts tomorrow. But for time being, my suspicion rests there.

More and more, Sharky is feeling like town to me. There was so much suspicion on him yestergameday that if he were mafia I feel like he would have altered his play style somewhat, and it still feels the same to me.

[Eevee]

Ok. But we cannot let frisk die in vain.

From his death I think we can distinguish people into three lists:
Wanted to lynch him: me, Galz, Robz, PPS
Ok to lynch him: SB, Manda
Unwilling to lynch him: eevee, YN

The consensus seems to be, no one knew Robz had a power role. I wouldn't expect him to hint he has one either, so this does not surprise me. I dont remember Robz arguing very hard for anyones scumminess, so doesnt seem like he was killed for pointing out the mafia either, so the only logical conclusion I can come to is he was killed for being experienced and good in this game. Which is kind of sad, because I dont think that tells us much about the mafia family that did it, anyone can kill  for that reason.

@manda
Interesting. I think the fact you are accusing me makes you look very much like town to be honest. The reason is: after what happened yesterday, I'm not an easy lynch. I think accusing me first thing in the morning would just be way too bold of a mafia play (I dont think they want to be very controversial atm). Relatively confident you are town now, so that is good.

[pingpongsam]

I've got some crazy workload going on so I'll be posting early East Coast AM (like now) and later PM. I'll be trying to read up during the day and may get the chance to interject here and there.

While the "they whacked Robz because of his experience" argument carries water I'm beginning to consider that they whacked Robz because he was the most confusing kill. That Robz was the most vocal towards lynching Frisk gives me a great deal of dissonance in light of him being Town. Assuming no tell of his PR; if Mafia had left Robz on the table he would have been an obvious D2 lynch candidate. It seems like there is no cohesive suspicions amongst us this Day. On the one hand it is good in that we aren't walking lockstep into another mislynch. On the other hand, it feels like Mafia has made plays that have sufficiently confused town. This suggests a degree of experienced forethought.

The 2 remaining players with significantly more experience than the rest of us are Eevee and Galzria. I have a very hard time believing either are Mafia but, isn't that the point? To paraphrase Galzria, chasing scum isn't nearly as effective as killing Mafia. Frisk was scummy, Sharky is scummy. Meanwhile, Mafia is making effective kills. While I have no case on either Eevee or Galzria I do have an uneasy feeling one or the both could be expertly playing this field. My eyes are on how the 2 are interacting and how others interact with them for today.

[Eevee]

I dont think Galzria is "cleared" by any means. I found him somewhat suspicious yesterday, and he hasnt done anything to alleviate that.

[timchen]

@eevee: Robz did vote for PPS early yesterday, and was pretty much the only one that cast suspicion on him. Can PPS decided to kill him for that?

[timchen]

@Young_Nick: this is a very important question. I think you called me lurker twice. Why did you do that?

[pingpongsam]

@eevee: Robz did vote for PPS early yesterday, and was pretty much the only one that cast suspicion on him. Can PPS decided to kill him for that?

If I were Mafia I think I would have preferred to have Robz as a relatively easy D2 lynch and worked the angle on how hard he pushed the Frisk wagon. This is the main reason I'm wondering if Mafia detected the PR . Having never been given a Mafia role I am willing to admit I am coming from a handicapped vantage and cannot understand how the Robz lynch was the wisest N1 NK.

[Young Nick]

@Young_Nick: this is a very important question. I think you called me lurker twice. Why did you do that?

I genuinely thought you were lurking for parts of D1. I did not say you were in any of my more recent posts. I don't think lurking is innately a bad thing. In my opinion, it only becomes a problem when someone asks for you to respond and even then you don't say much. Nobody has really done this game, maybe with the exception of Robz.

I do not currently consider you a lurker.

Why do you see this as such an important question? Do you take lurking to be a more serious offense?

[timchen]

@YN: no, it's just because I was surprised. But after a careful look back your more recent lurker call (#691) is just a recall of the earlier (#396). I was thinking that as mafia one may not be so interested in carefully reading every post and might call out lurkers just by post count. But yeah, I misread and that is certainly not what you did.

[Eevee]

repeat: vote: sharky. scummyyyy

[Young Nick]

repeat: vote: sharky. scummyyyy

I, too, think he is very scummy. Yet I am not sold that he is Mafia. I hope to have time to reread many of his posts tonight and explain whether or not I agree. This would likely be followed by a vote, but I do not want to give a chance to let both Mafia hammer him (though I doubt that this would happen). I'll say it again: if he is Mafia, he has played this in a fantastically daring manner.

[pingpongsam]

if he is Mafia, he has played this in a fantastically daring manner.

I would say this, if he is Mafia I don't know who is dumber, him for playing that way or us for letting him live.

[timchen]

At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.

Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?

[timchen]

My answer:
(a) prob not.
(b) 1-1 or 0-2.
(c) Galzria
(d) Manda

[Galzria]

At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.

Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?

Well, when I was a scumling back in M-II, Robz and I killed Tables N1 on my call, and he flipped Cop. My reasoning was that the Morgrim wagon was 4 players (Morgrim self-hammered), including both Robz and myself. Killing somebody on the wagon would reduce to 2 scum in 3 players. Bad odds. So we lynched Tables who was not in our subset, and got lucky on the PR hit.

Here, we had 5 people lynching CF, 3 not. Again, if both scum are on the wagon, killing one member is ridiculous, because it makes the rest of the wagon 2/4 scum. The alternative would be to lynch off the wagon in this case - but that's not what happened.

So why lynch on the wagon? If there was 1 scum on and 1 off, your odds for scum in each subgroup are 1/3, and 1/5. If you are going to change the odds on either set, the latter makes sense. - And if BOTH scum were off the wagon, NK'ing somebody who was onboard is almost a must.

So: My conclusion is that the odds most likely stand as EITHER 1/3 & 1/4 OR 2/3 & 0/4 for the location of scum. In both situations we are more likely to hit scum off the wagon rather than on.

As to why Robz - Scum knew he wasn't scum. They knew he was playing "odd". I don't think they knew he was a PR, but they wanted to lynch somebody on the wagon and he was a good stab in the dark. I think they got lucky.

As for my suspicions: I'm strongly leaning towards Nick, but I can't yet put my finger on it. I'll need to review all of his posts. Eevee is a strong second choice given his over-the-top confidence on his reads - and the fact that while the CF wagon was steaming along, he kept pressure on another townie for lynch - me - and my wagon almost took off a few times. It felt like scum staying off a known town wagon, while pushing another - because he won't get called out until we're both killed and flip town, at which point it's lylo for town.

[timchen]

Galz, you hasn't answered my questions completely. Among the players on the wagon, who do you suspect the most?

[Galzria]

Galz, you hasn't answered my questions completely. Among the players on the wagon, who do you suspect the most?

Probably you, but I don't think that's relevant considering my belief that inn terms of simple odds we are more likely to find scum off the wagon - coupled with the fact that I find two people more suspicious than you.

[pingpongsam]

(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
I've gone from say a 80/20 certainty to a 20/80 certainty. The shock and awe left me certain early where review of the post history and consideration of others' views has reduced that certainty. I do feel the question deserves merit for reasons previously outlined.

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
I am currently giving an equal distribution to each possibility. I honestly have no good mechanism for making this determination.
 
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
Sharky - all of the early play plus the hammer leaves me questioning regardless of how hapless it appears.

(d) how about the people off wagon?
Again, I'm finding an equal distribution here. Eevee is the most forward person of this group which always weights suspicion, he has made sure to make it VERY clear he was OFF the Frisk wagon; strong Town play or scummy distancing? The Sharky wagon was an easy wagon. I can see one or both scum camping there because defending that vote is elementary. YN seems to have more opinion but both manda and YN appear to be acquiescing to the flow of the game rather than actively putting forth assertions; typical noob play or scummy stealth?

[Eevee]

(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
I do not. I think it was because he is a strong player.

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
1-1 if I had to guess.

(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
sharky, opportunistic seeming voting. Would have to reread to have a better idea though.

(d) how about the people off wagon?
Young nick maybe? No strong read about this.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-1

shark_bait (1): Eevee

Not Voting {6}: Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, timchen, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

[Young Nick]

At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.

Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?

a) I've already stated that I doubt they figured him to be a PR.
b) I have answered this in saying that I have no idea. I'd say 1-1 or 0-2 (none on the wagon).
c) S_B is probably the most suspicious due to his...unorthodox play. Galzria would be second, though I am not sure why other than his active role in the C_F list.
d) I am pretty comfortable with the three who were not on the wagon. One was me, one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

Three of the four people who have answered said they see me as scummy in response to part d. Is this due to being one of three who wasn't on the wagon or anything specific?
d)