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Author Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins!  (Read 114120 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #625 on: May 30, 2012, 08:13:43 am »

First of all, the only reason to keep my role secret is to derive some benefit from the power later on. With the doctor, this means preventing the mafia's target from dying. So, right before I declared, this was the question: Will my power ever be useful? In order for it to be useful, the following things would have to happen:

1). I am not lynched by the town today. (I can't use the power if I'm dead.)
2). The town lynches a mafia. (I can't use my power if the game ends due to mafia victory.)
3). The mafia must select someone other than me to die, and I must also select that person.

I thought the odds of all of these things happening was very, very low. So the negatives of roleclaiming seemed low.

On the contrary, it seemed my Doctor status would be most useful in narrowing down the possible mafia suspects at this absolutely critical juncture. I mean, I suppose you have to believe me for it to matter, and again I hope I have given you a lot of good reasons to believe me. But... why would I sit on information that clears me, and is unlikely to ever be useful again or matter later anyway? And why would I wait to reveal until right before the hammer drops? First of all, we are only talking 3 votes to kill here, and Insomniac had put one on me before the sun was even up on Day 3.

I can tell you, and you'll just have to trust me I guess--if I were not the Doctor, and like, Galzria was, I would want Galzria to say so at this point in the game. It's more evidence to weigh, and it could very well be the difference between killing the right person and killing the wrong person today.

Again I ask, what information does your doctor claim give the town that we did not have before?

Also, if you are town, you're right that the odds of 1, 2, and 3 above lining up were low. But now they are much, much lower. You've improved the chance the town won't lynch you, but only somewhat, since we might believe you. You've greatly increased the chance the mafia WILL lynch you. You've made it very unlikely that the mafia will pick a predictable target, knowing there's a Doctor out there.

If you had continued to sit on your role, you might have had one more chance to use it. And with so few people it would be a better chance than you've had so far. So this still makes zero sense to me as town play.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #626 on: May 30, 2012, 11:59:37 am »

First of all, the only reason to keep my role secret is to derive some benefit from the power later on. With the doctor, this means preventing the mafia's target from dying. So, right before I declared, this was the question: Will my power ever be useful? In order for it to be useful, the following things would have to happen:

1). I am not lynched by the town today. (I can't use the power if I'm dead.)
2). The town lynches a mafia. (I can't use my power if the game ends due to mafia victory.)
3). The mafia must select someone other than me to die, and I must also select that person.

I thought the odds of all of these things happening was very, very low. So the negatives of roleclaiming seemed low.

On the contrary, it seemed my Doctor status would be most useful in narrowing down the possible mafia suspects at this absolutely critical juncture. I mean, I suppose you have to believe me for it to matter, and again I hope I have given you a lot of good reasons to believe me. But... why would I sit on information that clears me, and is unlikely to ever be useful again or matter later anyway? And why would I wait to reveal until right before the hammer drops? First of all, we are only talking 3 votes to kill here, and Insomniac had put one on me before the sun was even up on Day 3.

I can tell you, and you'll just have to trust me I guess--if I were not the Doctor, and like, Galzria was, I would want Galzria to say so at this point in the game. It's more evidence to weigh, and it could very well be the difference between killing the right person and killing the wrong person today.

Again I ask, what information does your doctor claim give the town that we did not have before?

Given that I am Doctor, I cannot be mafia. It narrows down the possible choices for mafia to 4, rather than 5. And it gives you another criteria for evaluating whether I have acted honestly and innocently.

Also, if you are town, you're right that the odds of 1, 2, and 3 above lining up were low. But now they are much, much lower. You've improved the chance the town won't lynch you, but only somewhat, since we might believe you. You've greatly increased the chance the mafia WILL lynch you. You've made it very unlikely that the mafia will pick a predictable target, knowing there's a Doctor out there.

If you had continued to sit on your role, you might have had one more chance to use it. And with so few people it would be a better chance than you've had so far. So this still makes zero sense to me as town play.

Right, now I will die tonight for sure, but one of us has to die and I can still win as long as we get mafia today and mafia tomorrow. As I've said, in order to do that, I suspect we have to vote Insomniac today and you tomorrow. But if I hadn't revealed, I would have either been lynched today, or, we would have lynched the wrong person and lost, or here's the other scenario: I convince everybody to believe me and we lynch, let's say Insomniac. We find out he's mafia--I was right, yay!--and who dies in the night? Probably me. And I can't even stop that with my doctor power because I can't use it on myself. So I didn't see the Doctor power ever factoring in again.

I guess I should ask: Do you question whether it was a wise roleclaim because: 1) You don't believe the claim, and it's timing makes it more suspect to you, or 2) You believe it but disgaree that it was a tactically sound choice for the town. If it's 2, we should just agree to disagree. If it's 1, than yeah, it merits as much discussion as you want.

(I don't mean to be obsessing over certain points, I am just trying to answer all direct questions and challenges.)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #627 on: May 30, 2012, 12:30:21 pm »

Well, I am coming around to 2. But when I put myself in Dr. Robz Townie's shoes, I can't see myself making that call. Whereas when I put myself in Godfather Robz Mafioso's shoes I can absolutely see myself making that claim. So it makes you MORE suspicious to me. Along with the tone and timing of your post accusing me. You're not looking good, but, yeah, all of these things I can also imagine a plausible town read for.

If you're town then I think the dream team has to be Volt-Insomniac, a team that I have by no means ruled out. And if that is the case then a vote for Insomniac would be a fine thing. Actually if you're mafia, I still think the team is Volt-you, so I'd be pretty comfortable voting for Volt if two other people felt like joining me. I just don't see that happening right now so it doesn't seem like a productive charge to lead ATM. Otherwise, we just need to lynch the correct side of the Robz/Insomniac duality.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #628 on: May 30, 2012, 12:43:21 pm »

Two things. 

One:  I would like to hear more from Robz on the Doctor-roleclaim-strategy front.  Specifically: 

Also, if you are town, you're right that the odds of 1, 2, and 3 above lining up were low. But now they are much, much lower. You've improved the chance the town won't lynch you, but only somewhat, since we might believe you. You've greatly increased the chance the mafia WILL lynch you. You've made it very unlikely that the mafia will pick a predictable target, knowing there's a Doctor out there.

If you had continued to sit on your role, you might have had one more chance to use it. And with so few people it would be a better chance than you've had so far. So this still makes zero sense to me as town play.

Right, now I will die tonight for sure, but one of us has to die and I can still win as long as we get mafia today and mafia tomorrow. As I've said, in order to do that, I suspect we have to vote Insomniac today and you tomorrow. But if I hadn't revealed, I would have either been lynched today, or, we would have lynched the wrong person and lost, or here's the other scenario: I convince everybody to believe me and we lynch, let's say Insomniac. We find out he's mafia--I was right, yay!--and who dies in the night? Probably me. And I can't even stop that with my doctor power because I can't use it on myself. So I didn't see the Doctor power ever factoring in again.

I guess I should ask: Do you question whether it was a wise roleclaim because: 1) You don't believe the claim, and it's timing makes it more suspect to you, or 2) You believe it but disgaree that it was a tactically sound choice for the town. If it's 2, we should just agree to disagree. If it's 1, than yeah, it merits as much discussion as you want.[/quote]

If I'm construing jotheonah's post correctly - and J, check me if I'm not - he is saying this (COMPLETE PARAPHRASING, despite my use of quotes):

"If you were really Doctor, you wouldn't have roleclaimed when you did.  By roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that you will die before you get to use your Doctor power.  If we lynch town today, we lose; if we lynch mafia today, the other mafia will kill you.

BUT, if you were Doctor and did NOT roleclaim, you'd have a chance to use your power.  You could still argue why you're Town without having to roleclaim.  And because the roleclaim isn't provable, it doesn't actually bolster your claim to be Town.  If you don't roleclaim, and we lynch mafia today, there's a decent chance that the mafia would try to kill one of the other remaining townies in the night - who you could then save. 

But by roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that your Doctor role never matters again.  Either we lose today by mislynching, or you die in the night at the Mafia's hands.  So roleclaiming only hurts your position, and therefore doesn't make sense - unless you're Mafia."

I think this is jotheonah's argument.  It's a reasonable one.  I don't know yet that I agree with it, but it's a reasonable one.

Robz, so far I think your explanation for why you roleclaimed is "I was in danger of a Mafia quickhammer if Insomniac is town, and roleclaimed to convince Insomniac - if he is town - to unvote."  I may be missing nuances.  If so, please set me straight.

So the question then is:  jotheonah has argued that Robz's roleclaiming Doctor did nothing but hurt your position (assuming you are Doctor).  It doesn't make you safer from the lynch; it only makes you the prime target at night.  If you were Doctor you wouldn't willingly hurt your position;  ergo, you must actually be Mafia.  Robz, what is your response?

----

And now, the second thing.  Apologies in advance if someone already brought up this line of thought and I missed it.  I don't recall seeing it, but I've been skimming.

Who do we think the Mafia Rolecop has investigated each night?

The answer to this will, of course, depend on who you're considering as the Mafia pair.  But it has me wondering.  Let's say, for sake of argument, that the Mafia pair does not include Robz.  That means Robz is Doctor as he claims.  And it means one of the Mafiosi is Insomniac.  OK.

Night 1 they kill Tables.  Why Tables?  We've talked about this before.  He was a voice of reason, an experienced player, one of the few who didn't vote for Morgrim - all in all, someone who would likely (1) be good at scumhunting and (2) be good at swaying others.  Makes perfect sense to kill him.

So who do they investigate?  Maybe the other admittedly experienced player in the game?  Someone else with well-reasoned posts?  Not quite so Town-vibey as Tables given his participation in the lynch, but still someone that the Mafia should be wary of? 

Yes, I'm thinking it likely that a Mafia pair including Insomniac would, on Night 1, be more likely to investigate Robz than anyone else.

This puts Insomniac's vendetta against Robz on Day 2 in a significantly sharper light.

"But why didn't they kill him on Night 2?" you ask.  Using jotheonah's analysis, the answer is clear:  Robz's Doctor role doesn't help him avoid the lynch.  He can't prove it.  And as one of the four lynchers, he's just as suspicious as the rest of us.  Being Doctor doesn't help him Day 3.  So it wasn't a big deal to avoid killing him Night 2.

"But he might have saved the Night 2 target!" you say.  That all depends on how likely the Mafia thought Robz would pick bozzball to save.  Sure, most of us thought bozzball was Town - but he was also non-participating Town.  And Kuildeous had just got done warning us all how terrible it would be if we were left with 4 + bozzball on Day 3.  Now, that didn't save K.  It didn't convince me, it didn't convince others.  BUT... with K revealed as Town after his lynch, it would be reasonable for the Mafia to think, "Hmm.  Now that K is revealed Town his arguments will read better to the other Townies.  The Doctor might buy into his argument that bozzball's survival is bad for the Town.  That means the Doctor won't save bozzball.  Which of course means we should kill bozzball."

So yeah.  I'd appreciate hearing others' thoughts on this. 
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #629 on: May 30, 2012, 12:47:14 pm »

I have a question for you, J.  What happened to your suspicion of Galzria, as laid out in post #555?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #630 on: May 30, 2012, 12:48:19 pm »

Blah, apologies for the wrecked quote boxes two posts back.  I'll repost with them fixed if anyone needs it.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #631 on: May 30, 2012, 12:50:51 pm »

Volt, read my post #592, and you'll see how my thought process jives with yours regarding bozz being killed.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #632 on: May 30, 2012, 01:05:47 pm »

Volt: I have no qualms with your paraphrase of my argument. That is exactly what I meant to say.

What happened to my suspicion of Galzria? Nothing. That is, I'd still like to hear people's thoughts on the question I laid out there: If Galzria is town, and we all believe he's town, and he'd be nigh-unlynchable, why the heck hasn't he been nightkilled? Does anyone else have thoughts on this? Am I wrong that it's weird?

You're wondering why I didn't include that above when I said you were the most likely counterpart to Robz/Insomniac, since, if I assume my own innocence, there really are only two choices.

The short answer is, you've done more to arouse my suspicions the last two days than Galz (but less than Robz or Insomniac). So at this point I'm MORE comfortable making a decision on that dichotomy than on the R/I one.

The thing is, I can't really expect anyone else to be, because a pretty key piece of evidence is my own certainty of my innocence. The issue is muddier for Galzria, since I think I've been more suspicious than he, and muddier still for R/I, whichever is town.  So I have not been laying into you. Nor have I been carefully investigating your past posts.

If y'all want to put a pin in "Robz or Insomniac?" and play "J or V or G?" with me I guess we can do that. But it seems like Galzria's opus will serve us pretty well in both games, and this one seems like it's going somewhere.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #633 on: May 30, 2012, 01:21:53 pm »

I appreciate your explanation, jotheonah.  Thanks. 

I don't think it's that helpful to play "J or V or G" at this point, for the simple reason that I'd rather the Town have a 50% chance of being wrong than a 66% chance.  If we pick right between R and I, we'll have plenty of time to play J or V or G on Day 4.  (I'm assuming here that if we pick right, the Mafia will kill the lead proponent of that successful lynch - R if I is lynched, I if R is lynched - thus leaving the three of us to duke it out Day 4.)

Back to work for me now.  Galzria, I saw and appreciate your reference to an earlier post re: the Rolecop question.  I also want to read more of your magnum opus before weighing in substantively again.  Thanks again for putting so much hard work into that.  Even if you are Mafia.  :)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #634 on: May 30, 2012, 01:29:09 pm »

So I'm back on the Robz train. I'm actually sick today so this wont be a very in depth post but I have reasons to believe so. They are Robz roleclaim is to get the town to lose, I have reasons to believe this.

Tables suspected Robz (lightly in post 111). He mentioned he wasn't as suspicious later. But I believe Tables would have still investigated Robz in the night. Robz has a silver tongue and is an experienced player. I see no reason to not investigate him on day 1 especially if you have suspicions towards him.

Night 2 bozzball was killed. And I want to talk about this again because I believe there was an additional reason I had overlooked. bozzball is a confirmed mathematician. I had not revealed my RL profession at this point. Bozzball had revealed his and given us reason to believe him (he posted some points saying the doctor and the cop roles were negligible in night 1). Robz fully intended to roleclaim on day 3. He knew he had a 66% chance of a counterclaim but also knew the information that the mafia had. Bozzball would have been able to give a better explanation then I on why Robz is highly unlikely to be the doctor, and as he was not the target of town suspicion like I am.


(Also DXV suspects robz of being scum)

I'm ready to vote again for Robz

An aside: My suspicion of bozzball was alot to do with the Kuildeous points (except that I MADE THEM FIRST). I suspected he was town or mafia and that if he was alive today we would have trouble killing someone. But eh he died so that says something right
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 2)
« Reply #635 on: May 30, 2012, 02:56:00 pm »

If I'm construing jotheonah's post correctly - and J, check me if I'm not - he is saying this (COMPLETE PARAPHRASING, despite my use of quotes):

"If you were really Doctor, you wouldn't have roleclaimed when you did.  By roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that you will die before you get to use your Doctor power.  If we lynch town today, we lose; if we lynch mafia today, the other mafia will kill you.

BUT, if you were Doctor and did NOT roleclaim, you'd have a chance to use your power.  You could still argue why you're Town without having to roleclaim.  And because the roleclaim isn't provable, it doesn't actually bolster your claim to be Town.  If you don't roleclaim, and we lynch mafia today, there's a decent chance that the mafia would try to kill one of the other remaining townies in the night - who you could then save. 

But by roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that your Doctor role never matters again.  Either we lose today by mislynching, or you die in the night at the Mafia's hands.  So roleclaiming only hurts your position, and therefore doesn't make sense - unless you're Mafia."

I think this is jotheonah's argument.  It's a reasonable one.  I don't know yet that I agree with it, but it's a reasonable one.

Robz, so far I think your explanation for why you roleclaimed is "I was in danger of a Mafia quickhammer if Insomniac is town, and roleclaimed to convince Insomniac - if he is town - to unvote."  I may be missing nuances.  If so, please set me straight.

So the question then is:  jotheonah has argued that Robz's roleclaiming Doctor did nothing but hurt your position (assuming you are Doctor).  It doesn't make you safer from the lynch; it only makes you the prime target at night.  If you were Doctor you wouldn't willingly hurt your position;  ergo, you must actually be Mafia.  Robz, what is your response?

Volt, an answer to you:

I calculated that there was essentially no chance I get to use my doctor power to actually save someone, in any circumstance. As you note, the Mafia Rolecop exists. If the Rolecop never investigated anybody the town lynched, or anybody he and his mafia cohort killed, at present he would know everybody's role except one person. (5 people left: 2 mafia, 2 nights of investigation, 1 person remaining). There's a good chance of that, essentially the only thing to disrupt it that I can tell would be the mafia investigating Kuildeous or Bozzball on Night 1.

So, there's a good chance the mafia know I am doctor anyway. I think they probably would have killed me in the night if they knew (although you proposed an interesting reason why they would hold off), so my guess would be they learned it last night, I suppose. So it's no difference to them--either they discredit my claim and have me lynched (and we just lose), or they kill me in the night. This was all clear to them BEFORE I claimed Doctor. I don't get to Doctor anybody no matter what happens, in all overwhelming likelihood.

Also, even if they don't know I'm doctor, if I survive this lynch at all, I figured it would be because I had convinced the other townies to kill Insomniac, my runaway number 1 suspect. If we kill Insomniac, and he is mafia, and we go into the night phase, who is the other mafia going to kill? He is going to kill me, because if Insomniac is guilty, I am the most innocent looking person. So even if the mafia somehow had no knowledge of my Doctor status, I would still die tonight and the power would be totally meaningless.

So then, the question becomes: Why wouldn't I say I'm Doctor? I want to give the rest of the town members all the information I can, especially if it is information the mafia already have or probably didn't need to make their kill anyway.

I'm very sorry if the rest of the town thinks I have deprived us of a valuable tool. But I think you should see that there was really no chance I was going to get to use that tool to any effect, no matter whether everybody knows I'm doctor, the mafia know I'm doctor, or nobody knows I'm doctor.

Then of course Insomniac jumps on me with that immediate vote. I am thinking, "Uh, should I wait to say anything? Should I wait until there is another vote? What if 2 come at once? Well, it makes no difference, there's no benefit to keeping it a secret." So I said it.

My roleclaim was about clearing myself and giving the town more information, and my power was never going to actually protect anybody in the night. I thought it was the right thing to do, and I am still quite convinced of it. If it has made me look more suspicious, that's unfortunate, but... it was information that I possessed, that would help the town, and I had no reason to withhold it.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #636 on: May 30, 2012, 03:15:33 pm »

Ah, Insomniac. Sigh.

So I'm back on the Robz train. I'm actually sick today so this wont be a very in depth post but I have reasons to believe so. They are Robz roleclaim is to get the town to lose, I have reasons to believe this.

Tables suspected Robz (lightly in post 111). He mentioned he wasn't as suspicious later. But I believe Tables would have still investigated Robz in the night. Robz has a silver tongue and is an experienced player. I see no reason to not investigate him on day 1 especially if you have suspicions towards him.

If I were the mafia and I were in the habit of killing people because they made even slight accusations against me, wouldn't I have murdered you over and over again? You must think me a foolish mafia. I chose to keep 2 people alive who are highly suspicious of me and instead killed the person who had no influence whatsoever on the game. And then I lied about being Doctor with a 66% chance of immediate contradiction.

But really, to think that I was more likely to kill Tables than anyone else was is reaching.

Night 2 bozzball was killed. And I want to talk about this again because I believe there was an additional reason I had overlooked. bozzball is a confirmed mathematician. I had not revealed my RL profession at this point. Bozzball had revealed his and given us reason to believe him (he posted some points saying the doctor and the cop roles were negligible in night 1). Robz fully intended to roleclaim on day 3. He knew he had a 66% chance of a counterclaim but also knew the information that the mafia had. Bozzball would have been able to give a better explanation then I on why Robz is highly unlikely to be the doctor, and as he was not the target of town suspicion like I am.

Why would Bozzball have given a better explanation? Because he is a mathematician? What? You seem to suggest there is some mathematical explanation for why my claim isn't true. Clearly you aren't a mathematician, because all the math suggests is that I was more likely than not to be contradicted if I were lying. I don't expect this to make everyone nod their heads and automatically accept my claim. I expect people to weigh this as evidence in my favor at least, however, that hopefully acquits me when the other evidence is considered as well.

My mathematical odds of being doctor are the same as everyone else. Odds of being mafia, same as everyone else.


(Also DXV suspects robz of being scum)

I understand that this is a joke! But in case there is any confusion, DXV accused me of being mafia in the pre-mafia thread, before roles were ever assigned. It was an honor.

I'm ready to vote again for Robz

An aside: My suspicion of bozzball was alot to do with the Kuildeous points (except that I MADE THEM FIRST). I suspected he was town or mafia and that if he was alive today we would have trouble killing someone. But eh he died so that says something right

You are voting to lynch the Doctor, sir.

VOTE: INSOMNIAC

I am relying on the rest of you to agree with me, of course. And I will continue to answer any questions you have of me, for as long as it takes.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #637 on: May 30, 2012, 03:38:47 pm »

Just so we're a 100% clear: A mislynch today IS Game Over, right?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #638 on: May 30, 2012, 03:43:31 pm »

The setup used for this newbie game is one of the ones given below. The setup is randomly determined, but is one of the 6 given here:
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.

There will always be two mafia players and seven town players.

Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Goon.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Rolecop. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

If we kill the wrong person, there will be 2 mafia and 2 town. The mafia WILL comprise half the town. So I assume so.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Axxle

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #639 on: May 30, 2012, 03:45:53 pm »

A mislynch will end the game at this point.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #640 on: May 30, 2012, 03:46:20 pm »

Vote Count 3-2

Insomniac (1) - Robz888
Not Voting (4) - Voltgloss, Galzria, jotheonah, Insomniac

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #641 on: May 30, 2012, 04:07:33 pm »

Things are moving pretty fast these days. Too fast for me to keep  up! I'll try to have part 3, Jotheonah, up within the next two hours. Robz will follow that, with Volt bringing up the rear. I won't vote until I'm as sure as I can be, but I think it's fair to state things right now as such:

Robz has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Insomniac
Insomniac has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Robz

2 of the remaining 3 are town.
If Mafiosi #2 is willing to play the long game, he'll happily throw his partner under right now, ending in (likely) a 4-1 vote split.
If Mafiosi #2 wants to end the game today, he won't go after his partner at all, instead aiming to mislead 1 townie.

Whose story you believe, Insomniac or Robz, and how you think Mafiosi #2 is likely to play is going to determine win/lose.

For my part (and what it's worth right now), I am torn between believing Robz, and wondering if I'm being played. Robz himself has not had much impact on my play/decisions in days past, so I haven't felt manipulated... But then, I can say the same of Insomniac.

***If I had to choose right now or face the deadline, I would vote Insomniac***

I don't have to choose now however, and I've still got time. So back to my regularly scheduled programming. Part 3 to follow soon.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #642 on: May 30, 2012, 04:37:20 pm »

Things are moving pretty fast these days. Too fast for me to keep  up! I'll try to have part 3, Jotheonah, up within the next two hours. Robz will follow that, with Volt bringing up the rear. I won't vote until I'm as sure as I can be, but I think it's fair to state things right now as such:

Robz has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Insomniac
Insomniac has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Robz

2 of the remaining 3 are town.
If Mafiosi #2 is willing to play the long game, he'll happily throw his partner under right now, ending in (likely) a 4-1 vote split.
If Mafiosi #2 wants to end the game today, he won't go after his partner at all, instead aiming to mislead 1 townie.

Whose story you believe, Insomniac or Robz, and how you think Mafiosi #2 is likely to play is going to determine win/lose.

For my part (and what it's worth right now), I am torn between believing Robz, and wondering if I'm being played. Robz himself has not had much impact on my play/decisions in days past, so I haven't felt manipulated... But then, I can say the same of Insomniac.

***If I had to choose right now or face the deadline, I would vote Insomniac***

I don't have to choose now however, and I've still got time. So back to my regularly scheduled programming. Part 3 to follow soon.

Unlike Robz I am not unchangeable as you see I have not voted today, and am actually waiting for you to finish your book because aside from the part about me I very much like the idea behind them.

IF I had to vote right now it would be Robz, but I don't have to vote right now.


Robz: I didnt say bozzball would make the math more clear your claim is accurate, although the missleading part is if you are mafia then the you have the advantage of the knowledge the rolecop has gained doesn't change the fact that there could be a doctor or a jailkeeper but it does change the amount of safety you can gain from a reveal. What I said was that Bozzball would have made the same argument as me but because people trusted him they might have believed him at least a shred more than me. People don't believe me and thats fine. But we lose if we misslynch
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #643 on: May 30, 2012, 04:57:10 pm »

I won't be voting until after Galzria finishes his book posts.  It wouldn't be fair going into Day 4 (assuming we lynch right) for those posts to exist on some people but not on others. 

ONE EXCEPTION:  if Galzria votes before then, I will vote.  I don't think that's likely to happen, for obvious reasons.

I should note I don't find Robz's vote, even standing alone, to be either suspicious or unsuspicious.  Robz said he would vote around this time; it's around this time; and he voted.  If there's ONE thing I learned in this game, it's that saying you're going to do something in the future and then not doing it - even for the most legitimate-feeling of reasons! - just gets you grief.

Anyway, waiting for Galzria's magnum opus works out for me anyway, as work should be calming down later this week.  So more time to think, consider, overanalyze, screw up royallyachieve resounding success.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #644 on: May 30, 2012, 05:18:47 pm »

I just thought of a rules question involving the Rolecop.  It might actually be important.

Axxle:  When the Mafia Rolecop gets a result, is that result immediately shared with the rest of the Mafia?

Basically, I'm asking which of these two hypothetical scenarios is correct:

Night 2 - Goon kills Cop; Rolecop investigates Doctor
Day 2 - Rolecop knows who the Doctor is;  Goon does not  [because the Rolecop can't PM his findings to the Goon until Night 3]

OR

Night 2 - Goon kills Cop; Rolecop investigates Doctor
Day 2 - Rolecop AND Goon know who the Doctor is  [because the mod PMs the Rolecop's results to the entire Mafia team]
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #645 on: May 30, 2012, 05:20:55 pm »

Axxle:  When the Mafia Rolecop gets a result, is that result immediately shared with the rest of the Mafia?
No, and the rolecop doesn't get the result until dawn.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #646 on: May 30, 2012, 07:30:37 pm »

Part 3 of 6: Jotheonah:

Day 1 Posts:
#41, #42, #43, #47, #52, #53, #55, #57, #59, #64, #67, #68, #129, #130, #149, #150, #152, #153, #156, #159, #167, #181, #182, #185, #186, #189, #191, #201, #220, #223, #228, #230, #236

Posts of interest:
#52 - Votes no lynch
#53 - Slight suspicion of Robz
#57 - Defends no lynch vote
#64 - Slightly suspicious of Kuildeous and Bozzball, more suspicious of Robz
#67 - Backs down from NL vote, suspects Tables, trusts Volt
#129 - Officially unvotes NL, still suspects Tables
#130 - Suspects Morgrim, but would lynch Kuildeous for being inactive with no stated reason
#149 - Strongly suspects Morgrim. Thinks M/G could be a pair. Ready to cast vote (doesn't), still suspects Kuildeous and Tables
#152 - Drops suspicion of Galzria, slightly suspicious of Bozzball
#156 - Sees Tables as possible Mafia #2
#167 - Officially votes Morgrim, suspicious of Kuildeous
#220 - Attempts to unvote

Relevant Conclusions: Wow, I didn't realize how scattered J was day 1! He suspected close to everybody. Hard to read. Set up a good defense for future days if he is Mafia, because he can claim he suspected everyone at some point, so can't be partners with anyone. Could also just be excitable town play. Few of his suspicions really carried much weight, and most were because of the arguments of others. Tough call.

Day 2 Posts:
#250, #251, #252, #257, #258, #262, #263, #269, #285, #294, #298, #299, #312, #313, #316, #322, #327, #332, #337, #355, #377, #379, #398, #399, #401, #402, #403, #414, #416, #421, 424, #428, #434, #435, #438, #439, #443, #448, #457, #473, #478, #481, #482, #485, #489, #492, #501, #503, #507, #509, #510, #541

Posts of interest:
#250 - Suspects Robz/Voltgloss pair. Presumptively defends Morgrim vote.
#257 - Reaffirms strong suspicion of R/V. Defends unvote after Morgrim lynch. Declares Galzria likely town.
#262 - Teeters about Volt, more sure of Robz
#263 - Reaffirms faith in G. Is bothered by G not trusting him.  Supports the rest of G's analysis. Undecided which is Mafia, Robz or Volt, leaning Volt
#269 - Defends late Morgrim unvote
#285 - Tit-for-Tat with Volt. Agrees with Galz "1 in, 1 out" theory. Believes V is probably town.
#294 - Redirects K back to Robz when he suspects J/I more than R/G
#298 - Back and forth with Robz
#316 - Responds to G's inquiry about K: K is #1 suspect outside Robz/Volt, would vote K if group were leaning that way
#355 - Not sure if K/R or K/V most likely. Would vote K now. Doesn't think Insomniac has been helpful
#377 - "Bottom line, if you're sure someone's Mafia, kill them today. Don't wait."
#399 - Agrees with G's analysis of Tables death. Claims lack of faith there are 2 town roles
#414 - Fully lays out case for K, says he's not bandwagoning, is worried about losing G's trust
#443 - Still thinks Volt may be Mafia #2
#457 - Backs off K, votes bozz to illicit a response
#473 - Back to leaning K, but worried about I/V pair
#478 - Reaffirms #473 thoughts
#485 - Backs off I/V pair because I votes for V
#492 - Asks G's opinion of V, states he's still highly suspicious
#503 - Thinks K-I likely
#507 - Really not liking Insomniacs play
#541 - Votes Kuildeous

Relevant Conclusions: Again a bit scattered, but not as bad as Day 1. Back and forth with Robz and Volt all day. I mentioned apprehension day 2 at how badly he appeared to want my friendship, and upon review, this still raises some flags. It was SO pointed and dogged. I don't know. Could be Mafia trying to get in good (which would explain my living still - he's looking for me to defend him day 3) or it could be a false alarm.

Day 3 Posts:
#554, #555, #588, #590, #600, #601, #606, #613

Posts of interest:
#554 - Orders Mafia pairs: R-V, I-V, I-G, I-R. Doesn't buy role claim
#555 - Drops "friendship" with G. Suspects him for living.
#561 - Thinks Robz is Mafia, Insomniac is town
#588 - Stays on Robz
#600 - Accuses Robz of suspecting people who suspect him
#613 - Stays on Robz,, feels I is exonerated by lack of someone defending him

Relevant Conclusions: Wary. Not sold he's Mafia or Town. If Mafia, I got used BIG time day 2, and set up for day 3/4. But he hasn't really pursued me hard after post #555, so not sure. He's been on Robz since day 2 though. Could be town. Although Volt his comment about lack of second town role day 2. Plug that into your M. Rolecop theory that they knew R was Doctor after night 1. It discredits any future claim (like R did day 3). Mafia move or town read?

Not sure here. Wouldn't make a move until day 4 unless something major changes. Very wary however.

Part 4 tonight hopefully...
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #647 on: May 30, 2012, 07:34:44 pm »

Could be Mafia trying to get in good (which would explain my living still - he's looking for me to defend him day 3) or it could be a false alarm.

I'm the one who drew attention to your still being alive. Can't see myself doing that if it was going to implicate me.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #648 on: May 30, 2012, 07:58:59 pm »

Btw, these are a PITA to put together with no edit, and (last two) on a mobile. There may be the occasional typo. Like "presumptively" instead of "preemptively". So don't judge too harshly. ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #649 on: May 30, 2012, 09:57:52 pm »

Btw, these are a PITA to put together with no edit, and (last two) on a mobile. There may be the occasional typo. Like "presumptively" instead of "preemptively". So don't judge too harshly. ;)

+1 for doing this on a mobile device, I wouldn't have the patience
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell
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