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[Cuzz]

There hasn’t been enough discussion about the fact that scum and traitor may not know each other, although given the number of PRs we have they clearly took some upgrades and knowing the full team I think is one of the more likely ones. But this has a potential big effect on quickhammer potential.

Let’s also keep in mind that the argument that awaclus was galz’a neighbor and would probably not have nk’d him doesn’t work if he’s the traitor and has no control over the nk.

I don’t think this has much impact on my choice for the day here since awaclus is probably not happening at this juncture but it’s worth keeping in mind.

In particular the fact that mcmc took Awaclus’s claim as if it totally cleared him is a bit suspicious.

Anyway, I wish I had better reads this game but we gotta do our best here and hope we hit. I think there’s a decent enough option which I’ll help out with once I’ve mulled it over a bit more.

This screams like "heeey guys so I know you know who I am but I don't actually know who you are since I took 1-shot exhile proof, I'm going to throw some suspicion around and dip out, hopefully y'all can get the misexhile through..."

also the initial cuzz votes were because people thought his question regarding what we all would have chosen for modification might allow traitor/mafia to signal to eachother.

This screams “I know cuzz is town and nearby everyone has been townreading him all game but PoE requires me to cherry-pick some stuff to start to build a case on him.”

[Robz888]

The most relevant info should come from, finally, an exile of an actual mafia team member.

Day 3 Final Vote Count

WestCoastDidds (5): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, shraeye, Robz888
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (2): EFHW, WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (0)

With 8 alive, it took 5 to exile.

I accept that Awaclus is probably town.

Note that if mcmc is scum, the scum were in a rough spot because he was the alternative wagon. He might as well bus didds, and bus hard.

Shraeye's vote on didds is pretty consequential in establishing that as the most likely exile. It could be bussing though because it buys a lot of credibility.

Also Robz, the wagon on me was started because Didds pivots to voting for me instead of voting for Joth. Didds leaves a wagon on Joth to form one on me. If you think I am scum whyyyyy would she do that and put a scum team of mcmc/didds in a situatuion where one of us has to bus. She could just stick on joth.

I mean if didds thought she was going down anyway it makes sense to pivot from joth to you (if you are scum and joth isn't).

[Robz888]

There hasn’t been enough discussion about the fact that scum and traitor may not know each other, although given the number of PRs we have they clearly took some upgrades and knowing the full team I think is one of the more likely ones. But this has a potential big effect on quickhammer potential.

Let’s also keep in mind that the argument that awaclus was galz’a neighbor and would probably not have nk’d him doesn’t work if he’s the traitor and has no control over the nk.

I don’t think this has much impact on my choice for the day here since awaclus is probably not happening at this juncture but it’s worth keeping in mind.

In particular the fact that mcmc took Awaclus’s claim as if it totally cleared him is a bit suspicious.

Anyway, I wish I had better reads this game but we gotta do our best here and hope we hit. I think there’s a decent enough option which I’ll help out with once I’ve mulled it over a bit more.

This screams like "heeey guys so I know you know who I am but I don't actually know who you are since I took 1-shot exhile proof, I'm going to throw some suspicion around and dip out, hopefully y'all can get the misexhile through..."

also the initial cuzz votes were because people thought his question regarding what we all would have chosen for modification might allow traitor/mafia to signal to eachother.

This screams “I know cuzz is town and nearby everyone has been townreading him all game but PoE requires me to cherry-pick some stuff to start to build a case on him.”

Well, PoE is more useful and accurate then "everyone has been townreading" you. Like it's very common for a scum player to play well enough that townies townread them early on. Also NOT everyone has townread you, IMPORTANTLY (for my case) joth did not townread you and then randomly changed his mind.

[Robz888]

That leaves me with you cuzz and shraeye. help sell me on why they are scum and not you.

I mean sure, but you need to sell me that you are not scum and you are manifestly failing to do that.

You think you are town and I chose to buss didds hard yesterday instead of voting for joth with you and didds?

"You think you are town" what? I don't think I'm town I know I'm town.

"I chose to buss didds hard yesterday instead of voting for joth with you and didds?" Don't say that's impossible, someone did it. Either you or shraeye or joth or multiples

Joth cant chose to vote himself over bussing didds....yes shraeye is in the same camp as me in that if he was scum he likely would have just voted joth instead of bussing his partner didds. Which is how I come to you and cuzz being scum so I do think its extremely unlikely.

I do see though from your perspective one of me or shraeye has to have decided to buss didds at a time where we could have instead pushed a joth exhile. Shraeye could also instead have pushed an exhile on me.

All of this is what makes me curious that despite you having found shraeye scummy multiples times earlier in the game you seem to be more focused on me being scum and the only thing that has super changed is that I find you scummy. It feels like as it did yesterday you only begin targetting me once I begin targetting scum.

I'm arguing with you because you're here, and I could say the same thing about you focusing on me!

[mcmcsalot]

There hasn’t been enough discussion about the fact that scum and traitor may not know each other, although given the number of PRs we have they clearly took some upgrades and knowing the full team I think is one of the more likely ones. But this has a potential big effect on quickhammer potential.

Let’s also keep in mind that the argument that awaclus was galz’a neighbor and would probably not have nk’d him doesn’t work if he’s the traitor and has no control over the nk.

I don’t think this has much impact on my choice for the day here since awaclus is probably not happening at this juncture but it’s worth keeping in mind.

In particular the fact that mcmc took Awaclus’s claim as if it totally cleared him is a bit suspicious.

Anyway, I wish I had better reads this game but we gotta do our best here and hope we hit. I think there’s a decent enough option which I’ll help out with once I’ve mulled it over a bit more.

This screams like "heeey guys so I know you know who I am but I don't actually know who you are since I took 1-shot exhile proof, I'm going to throw some suspicion around and dip out, hopefully y'all can get the misexhile through..."

also the initial cuzz votes were because people thought his question regarding what we all would have chosen for modification might allow traitor/mafia to signal to eachother.

This screams “I know cuzz is town and nearby everyone has been townreading him all game but PoE requires me to cherry-pick some stuff to start to build a case on him.”

Does it? I mean I get that your are being cheeky but do I seem like I have to scum read you from my position? Shraeye absolutely also could be scum. You have a surprising amount of traitor related posts which classically suggest you are the traitor. I don’t think I’m out of left field suggesting it.

[Cuzz]

There hasn’t been enough discussion about the fact that scum and traitor may not know each other, although given the number of PRs we have they clearly took some upgrades and knowing the full team I think is one of the more likely ones. But this has a potential big effect on quickhammer potential.

Let’s also keep in mind that the argument that awaclus was galz’a neighbor and would probably not have nk’d him doesn’t work if he’s the traitor and has no control over the nk.

I don’t think this has much impact on my choice for the day here since awaclus is probably not happening at this juncture but it’s worth keeping in mind.

In particular the fact that mcmc took Awaclus’s claim as if it totally cleared him is a bit suspicious.

Anyway, I wish I had better reads this game but we gotta do our best here and hope we hit. I think there’s a decent enough option which I’ll help out with once I’ve mulled it over a bit more.

This screams like "heeey guys so I know you know who I am but I don't actually know who you are since I took 1-shot exhile proof, I'm going to throw some suspicion around and dip out, hopefully y'all can get the misexhile through..."

also the initial cuzz votes were because people thought his question regarding what we all would have chosen for modification might allow traitor/mafia to signal to eachother.

This screams “I know cuzz is town and nearby everyone has been townreading him all game but PoE requires me to cherry-pick some stuff to start to build a case on him.”

Does it? I mean I get that your are being cheeky but do I seem like I have to scum read you from my position? Shraeye absolutely also could be scum. You have a surprising amount of traitor related posts which classically suggest you are the traitor. I don’t think I’m out of left field suggesting it.

Ok this seems like a potentially townie reaction.

But I don’t really buy that talking about the traitor somehow has to mean that I am the traitor, for several reasons not least of which is the fact that it’s not true. But traitor is part of the game and therefore is important for town to think critically about.

I think what’s scummier is the folks who seem to think it goes totally without saying that scum would have taken this or that modification over another, almost like they actually do in fact know which ones were taken. It’s certainly not obvious to me what scum did and I won’t apologize for considering all live possibilities.

[Cuzz]

Shraeye and Awaclus and Jimmmm, where you guys looking today?

[Awaclus]

Shraeye and Awaclus and Jimmmm, where you guys looking today?

I'm still re-reading.

[Awaclus]

Vote: shraeye

[Cuzz]

Vote: shraeye

Do you care if any of the rest of us do likewise and if so want to share why?

[Awaclus]

Vote: shraeye

Do you care if any of the rest of us do likewise and if so want to share why?

• Robz's analysis from D2, which suggested that one out of me, Swowl and shraeye was scum based on our wagon positions, now means that it's got to be shraeye because I know it isn't me and everyone knows it wasn't Swowl. It's not like the analysis was infallible to begin with and we've learned more information after that, but it still seems pretty sensible.
• shraeye soft-pushing for a no-exile the whole game looks bad.
• D3, shraeye's response when I was defending myself felt really weird, he definitely had reactions to it but he never seemed to reconsider his scumread or vote for me even while it would have been safe to do quickhammer-wise. It came across more as justifying the exact read he had already announced than as trying to read more into my alignment based on my responses.

I'm going to bed though so anyone else wanting to join the shraeye wagon should watch out for quickhammers.

[Jimmmmm]

Also we have this quote from didds

I’m not following, Mcmc. Why should we assume Galz was a neighbor?

Which again is to say if scum planned this big gambit didds has to fake that they didn't know galz was a neighbor which they would know from their partner.

Oh I was vaguely following at that time! I can't really imagine Didds saying this if she already knew.

[Jimmmmm]

Not sure how others feel but does the language "who haven't we seen yet? Cuzz! Heya! Shraeye! Where y'all at?" sound a bit like Didds is trying to signal to Cuzz that they know Cuzz is the traitor and "haven't seen him yet". This could apply to shraeye as well but putting cuzz first with the separation of the "Heya!" suggests cuzz.

This seems like a big stretch to me. Can't really imagine her doing this either.

[faust]

Vote Count 4.2

Robz888 (1): Jimmmmm
shraeye (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, Robz888, shraeye

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to exile. Day 4 lasts until October 18, 2024, 02:00:00 am.

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm you inherited a Robz vote from joth, do you stand by it?

Sure, I'll sheep my giddy predecessor for now.

[Jimmmmm]

Oh lol I just realized that I'm the only one who knows for certain that both scum bussed Didds. This is helpful (to me at least).

Can you summarise what Didds was exiled for? Were you considering joining the wagon?

[Jimmmmm]

Post Count:

cuzz: 124

This is an interesting data point compared to last game. Of course, "Don't play like my previous scum self" a likely plan regardless of alignment.

[Cuzz]

Oh lol I just realized that I'm the only one who knows for certain that both scum bussed Didds. This is helpful (to me at least).

Can you summarise what Didds was exiled for? Were you considering joining the wagon?

Didds was exiled basically for not seeming quite like town Didds, which I agreed with, but I wasn't totally certain. I was going to join the wagon, but I was anxious about losing the game, so I wanted to triple check that I thought it was the right choice before doing so:

Anyway, I wish I had better reads this game but we gotta do our best here and hope we hit. I think there’s a decent enough option which I’ll help out with once I’ve mulled it over a bit more.

Then I got caught up with work stuff right around the deadline and didn't have a chance to vote, but I was intending to:

Sorry folks I had work urgencies arise.

Fwiw I was gonna hammer Didds also so feel free to assign me some of the blame if that’s wrong.

vote: Didds in case my count is off

[shraeye]

so, the votes at the end of Day1 went from

Vote Count 1.4
Cuzz (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
EFHW (5): LaLight, WestCoastDidds, mcmcsalot, Galzria, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (3): EFHW, shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (1): Robz888
Not Voting (0)

to

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (0)

What happened around this? Cuzz said "hey it's pretty much EFHW or nothing, barring a flurry of activity" and then EFHW claimed.

Cuzz switches to scola, notably instead of Galz.  Galz wagon has more votes here, so if Cuzz was pushing for just-any-exile it doesn't make sense to switch to scola. Stated that Cuzz doesn't like the galz exile, but had reservations...so overall this reads as Cuzz is still trying to get a "good exile" through instead of just pushing anything.

mcmc still wants to stick with EFHW, but would pivot.

Robz reaffirms scola vote; Didds chimes in and sees EFHW's claim, no reaction for now

LaLight also picks scola (having previously been against Galz wagon)
That's probably the moment when it became scola or no-exile, I think.

EFHW votes for scola, then Didds

Joth is the first vote that reads exile-or-bust through and through

There are five votes for scolapasta.

vote: scolapasta

Now there are six.

scola you can claim now if you want but I kinda think we're probably exiling you regardless.

Joth also puts suspicion on EFHW's claim.  Then says "failing to exile isn't the worst thing".  If that's an option that joth truly wanted to consider, his actions speak towards a very different mindset.

mcmc provides the hammer.

Also of note, Awaclus is clearly around and commenting, AND saying no-exile is a bad decision. He could have provided the hammer, if mcmc had not. So the fact that he never ends up on the scola wagon is significant.  For all intents and purposes, any vote-count looking at scola's final wagon composition should include Awaclus as on-wagon.



I'm reading Cuzz in a positive light from this, mcmc slightly so.  Joth's actions/words seem the most incongruous, scumread there. Awaclus and Didds also ping scummily in my head. Neutral for Robz/EFHW. Worth looking into, but I'm already using time I don't have...Didds' overall EFHW impression over day2, Awaclus' opinion on the final Day1 vote count.

Revisiting this:

I've recolored the vote-counts; I'm not reading too much more into that then I did before.
This is a post that got Awaclus riled up, also a post where I put suspicion on joth, Didds (correct) and Awaclus.

Vote Count 2.3

LaLight (4): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds, EFHW
Swowl (3): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
Awaclus (1): Cuzz

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in under 6 hours.

I'm starting the Day2 countdown here.  The fact that two townies had started the wagons on eachother is great news for scum, who are probably not seeking to be extra loud and more likely to just follow suit and get another mis-ex.

Cuzz is swayed to Swowl by LaLight.
Then joth joins in:

I guess I'd better get on either LaLight or Swowl.

vote: Swowl

EFHW not excited for a non-case exile of Swowl

Cuzz's sticking point with Swowl creates confusion for Awaclus, mcmc, and myself.

WCD says "why Swowl, i guess it's inevitable". but expresses her townread on Swowl

Quote fail. Oh well.

I’m dumbfounded that Swowl has generated this many votes. I’m just not reading him as scummy and fail to see what y’all see as out of character for him. He is easily the player that I read best and think the most like and that often makes me give him the benefit of the doubt, but also, I usually can feel before everyone else when he’s off. I think that’s a bad exile. At the point it looks inevitable, unless all the baddies are already on him. If I’m wrong, beers are on me. But I just don’t think he’s a baddie.

Joth states townread on LaLight

Then joth is reluctantly willing to move to LaLight to ensure exile:

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

LaLight claims, talk about what rolestopper is, joth moves back to swowl.

EFHW hammers. So it looks like this in the end

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds
Swowl (6): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, Cuzz, jotheonah, EFHW
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it took 6 to exile.

Assuming EFHW is a tracker, would EFHW have gotten a different result if her target had no targets vs if she got rolestopped?

No.

Mod: Would I have been told if I had been rolestopped?

No.

Well, not too much there; maybe i'm in everything-confirms-my-bias territory.  Joth is scummy there, robz is somewhat guilty by reason of not-showing-up which sounds unfair but is what it is.  Still down with EFHW/Cuzz, this reads as townier from Didds, mostly neutral on mcmc and Awaclus.

On reread, I can't figure out why I thought that looked townier for Didds; she expresses disinterest in Swowl but doesn't really work to diffuse it...anyway, we got there in the end.

Robz is also in the position of not contributing much to either scenario.

[shraeye]

So we are at 4/2 and we know mafia and traitor took a minimum of two roles. Town gets one modification to start and we know of two more modifications.

Also if their is another neighborhood we know one of those three players is either a traitor or mafia so I think a second neighborhood claim if it exists would be good.

A restless spirit still has actual power so they should not claim.

We can now trust efhw’s results though knowing that didds was mafia I think it is slightly more likely than usual that didds would do the nk

Yeah, unfortunately, I agree with your reasoning about EFHWs results.

[shraeye]

Vote Count 3.1

shraeye (1): Robz888
jotheonah (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (6): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, jotheonah, shraeye, Awaclus

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm.

This is right before joth builds a big case on Didds and votes there.

followed immediately by Awaclus, who then posts about quickhammers.

Robz builds a case on Joth, switching from shraeye to joth; still names me as being scummy.  This could be a deflection, but I don't really see it that way

Here is a post from Didds worth looking into:

Ugh…so many apologies for all the typos. Jet lag is real. I appreciate reading my posts from the last 24 hours with grace!

Shraeye and Robz showing up and putting in some work. Nicely done. 

Shraeye, I didn’t move my vote from EFHW after she claimed because I wasn’t sure I believed her. But I thought Cuzz’s immediate move from her was more towny than not, even though I wish that he had a bit more suspicion.

Scum: Joth
Lean scum: Mcmc, awaclus
Neutral: Robz, Shraeye
Lean town: EFHW, Cuzz

Importantly, Didds has one teammate she knows and one she maybe knows.  If she knew both teammates, I think that would point more towards Cuzz being scum; I don't see why she'd be casting shade on both her partners when mafia were so far ahead.  But if she only knows one, then the traitor could just be anywhere on that list.


Cuzz asks about Didds' read on mcmc, there is a a very non-case feelings explanation behind it


Votes seemed to stall for a bit -- current voteCount

Vote Count 3.2

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (2): jotheonah, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.

Because both had stalled out at 2 votes, I felt like it was just not possible for both to be townwagons.  I called on Cuzz/EFHW to help us decide if Didds/Robz was the team or joth/Awaclus....later realizing that joth/Didds bussing one another for towncred was a possibility.

I gotta rethink all that, I keep forgetting about the weird interactions that traitor can bring about.  current thought is, Because Didds could only coordinate with 1 person, it maybe makes the joth/Didds plan to bus eachother strategy more likely.  If they get at it early enough, its possible that out of hesitation, or the traitor knowing mafia team, that it is just not possible for either wagon to gain much traction.

Didds later shows "frustration" at the joth wagon always losing steam, in the very same post that she switches to somebody else; even as her wagon has grown.  Didds switching to mcmc here is the main reason the end-of-day was mcmc vs. Didds instead of joth vs. Didds

There wasn't a votecount for a bit, but we had Cuzz voting Awaclus, mcmc voting Didds, and EFHW voting mcmc

shraeye's Count

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (3): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW

Not Voting (4): shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.

[shraeye]

So, Didds' strongest scumread was joth, but instead of banging that drum harder (and "why does this always stall out" is a reasonable argument to have been made in order to sway people), she switches to a new target.

Notably, her other scumreads both have just gotten 1 vote.  I think the fact that she picks mcmc vs Awaclus gives some towncred to mcmc here.  It maybe is the most safe wagon sheep-wise because it had just been started by EFHW who arguably was the most towny.

It's also scumpoints to Awaclus, plus this post

The fact that Didds isn't hammered yet is a good sign.

Robz also follows to mcmc right after, so the wagons are tied

Vote Count 3.4

WestCoastDidds (3): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (3): EFHW, WestCoastDidds, Robz888

Not Voting (1): shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 1 hour and 25 minutes.

joth asks the non-voters to do something good; I pick didds and Robz hammers (plus Cuzz's late-hammer).

If we include Cuzz on Didds, then Didds' partner definitely bussed to some degree.  The traitor also voted for Didds; I think this points to Traitor NOT picking the "know your team" choice

[shraeye]

I think based on the setup and what we have it is just extremely unlikely the scum!awaclus takes the modification become neighbor and the immediately nightkills galz thus rendering that neighborhood useless. You have to assume scum planned the fact that they would get towncred for it or assume that galz leaked he was a pr or assume that awaclus leaked he was scum.

But this reasoning disappears entirely if Awaclus is the traitor.

[shraeye]

Vote: shraeye

Do you care if any of the rest of us do likewise and if so want to share why?

• Robz's analysis from D2, which suggested that one out of me, Swowl and shraeye was scum based on our wagon positions, now means that it's got to be shraeye because I know it isn't me and everyone knows it wasn't Swowl. It's not like the analysis was infallible to begin with and we've learned more information after that, but it still seems pretty sensible.
• shraeye soft-pushing for a no-exile the whole game looks bad.
• D3, shraeye's response when I was defending myself felt really weird, he definitely had reactions to it but he never seemed to reconsider his scumread or vote for me even while it would have been safe to do quickhammer-wise. It came across more as justifying the exact read he had already announced than as trying to read more into my alignment based on my responses.

I'm going to bed though so anyone else wanting to join the shraeye wagon should watch out for quickhammers.

In what world have I been soft-pushign for no-exile?? 


The one where I exiled Didds during a scramble?  The one where I'm pointing out that no-exile could instantly lose the game?

Huh. Well, no exile is better than a misexile for us because at least then we live to fight another day. But of course, scum will push for an exile no matter what.

On surface, yes. Noexile is better than misexile...but even noexile might just instantly lose

Regarding your third point, I don't vote for people unless I mean it.  Everything up to that point is spent trying to weigh pros / cons and figure out the right option.  I doubt if I've voted for more than a single person each gameday (oh, my quick vote/unvote of mcmc last day, forgot that)

[shraeye]

Current conclusion:

mcmc town

honestly, that's about it. Boo to the rest of y'all.