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[EFHW]

Also, with a third partner and daychat, wagon positioning  would be easier than usual with less need for risky moves.  I think we had 3 town wagons.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't think they were, though.  The votes simply weren't there for me or Glooble.  If they were partners with Glooble, they should have stayed on him. My wagon was never strong enough to surpass Glooble's or Joseph's, so again, better not to deflect.

The votes weren't on you at the time but more than one person had previously voted for you or expressed a willingness to vote for you. The situation when space voted was three wagons, with 4, 4, and 3 votes; with the deadline coming up, a push onto any one of them could have resulted in an exile. The fact that space stepped forward to make that push on a player they had previously expressed zero opinion on reads extremely scummy to me

[Swowl]

Vote Count 2.1:

Space (1): ADK

Not Voting (10): Dylan, WCD, EFHW, Galz, faust, chairs, Eevee, Space, Robz, Glooble

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 ends on October 9th at 6:15PM Forum Time.

[SpaceAnemone]

ADK, here's a load of reasoning around where I moved my vote before calling it a night:

I was definitely moving away from Glooble, because as I explained before, I'd voted there just because it was a good PoE wagon, not because I though there was a high chance of him being scum. If you're saying that not staying on the Glooble wagon was the thing you think was scummy, then sorry, I never was going to leave my deadline vote there unless a decent case against him sprung up, and it didn't.

I could have moved to EFHW, leaving her level with Joseph on 4. But I wasn't scumreading her, and that may have left three locked European votes on her, making it harder for the people still awake to get any other exile through. That could have been seen as very scummy if EFHW is town.

I could also have moved to you, but that would be silly, because at that point you were a townread. I think you're still a townread, though being accused of scummy behaviour for something that was town-motivated and perfectly sensible is a bit frustrating.

I could have moved to anyone other than Joseph, but that could have been really annoying for the rest of town because of removing consolidation potential just before deadline.

So I moved to Joseph. When am I usually not willing to vote for Joseph? It irked me that he was not owning up to his mistake or clearing up the ambiguity for everyone, even after I'd made a post at #353 giving him the benefit of the doubt around that. When I voted I made it clear it was a removing-the-benefit-of-the-doubt kind of thing.

Lastly, our IC himself made the switch only two posts later, with the only post in between being me clarifying which people were likely to have to lock their votes and leave around that point. I'm sorry if you're upset that your preferred wagon fizzled, I'm sorry that we ended up exiling town, and I'm really sorry if Glooble was the correct choice and my super-Joseph-case influenced Robz to the point that he made the same scummy switch that I did. But I promise you neither of us is scum!

[A Drowned Kernel]

ADK, here's a load of reasoning around where I moved my vote before calling it a night:

I was definitely moving away from Glooble, because as I explained before, I'd voted there just because it was a good PoE wagon, not because I though there was a high chance of him being scum. If you're saying that not staying on the Glooble wagon was the thing you think was scummy, then sorry, I never was going to leave my deadline vote there unless a decent case against him sprung up, and it didn't.

I could have moved to EFHW, leaving her level with Joseph on 4. But I wasn't scumreading her, and that may have left three locked European votes on her, making it harder for the people still awake to get any other exile through. That could have been seen as very scummy if EFHW is town.

I could also have moved to you, but that would be silly, because at that point you were a townread. I think you're still a townread, though being accused of scummy behaviour for something that was town-motivated and perfectly sensible is a bit frustrating.

I could have moved to anyone other than Joseph, but that could have been really annoying for the rest of town because of removing consolidation potential just before deadline.

So I moved to Joseph. When am I usually not willing to vote for Joseph? It irked me that he was not owning up to his mistake or clearing up the ambiguity for everyone, even after I'd made a post at #353 giving him the benefit of the doubt around that. When I voted I made it clear it was a removing-the-benefit-of-the-doubt kind of thing.

Lastly, our IC himself made the switch only two posts later, with the only post in between being me clarifying which people were likely to have to lock their votes and leave around that point. I'm sorry if you're upset that your preferred wagon fizzled, I'm sorry that we ended up exiling town, and I'm really sorry if Glooble was the correct choice and my super-Joseph-case influenced Robz to the point that he made the same scummy switch that I did. But I promise you neither of us is scum!

Who is, then?

[chairs]

I feel pretty good about Space based on these posts.

It doesn't make me feel better about glooble, but it makes me feel better about space.

I know weekends are quiet, but I'd like to see some more participation.

vote: faust

[A Drowned Kernel]

vote: chairs

[Robz888]

Sorry, busy weekend. Glad I’m still alive.

[EFHW]

I don't think they were, though.  The votes simply weren't there for me or Glooble.  If they were partners with Glooble, they should have stayed on him. My wagon was never strong enough to surpass Glooble's or Joseph's, so again, better not to deflect.

The votes weren't on you at the time but more than one person had previously voted for you or expressed a willingness to vote for you. The situation when space voted was three wagons, with 4, 4, and 3 votes; with the deadline coming up, a push onto any one of them could have resulted in an exile. The fact that space stepped forward to make that push on a player they had previously expressed zero opinion on reads extremely scummy to me

I agree their vote was a turning point. I thought their Joseph comments before and after the switch were very apt, both addressing the theory put forth by Dylan. 

[SpaceAnemone]

Who is, then?

If I knew that, I'd put forward some better cases.

Let's do some partial reasoning. If we assume that all EoD wagons were town, then I think the people to look most closely at are Dylan on-wagon, and then any of the remaining off-wagon people, though I feel like Chairs has been more uncharacteristic than the others two so far, so that's where I'd start.

My reason for Dylan is the wagon placement, and the fact that he was doing the clearest job of articulating the issue with Joseph's in-thread error. That could come from a place of thinking he'd caught scum, but equally it's a very role for scum to occupy if they can get themselves there. Same could be said of Eevee's position, but I already took a look at Eevee, having been a bit suspicious before, so I think he's okay for now. Also Glooble and EFHW being on-wagon is entirely unsurprising if they're alternate wagons and know themselves to be town (which they are in this all-wagons-on-town scenario).

My Chairs reasoning is the fact he's been a bit more talkative than I'm used to seeing, plus he was the one who joined the Glooble wagon after me, albeit after Robz had moved away. He also joined the Joseph wagon in 6th position the first time it grew to six votes, though moved away when it dropped down to five, ending the day off-wagon (on ADK). Oh, and reading back over Chairs, he was also the third person to quick-join the sudden Didds wagon that appeared really suddenly, so that's a little suspicious.

Now let's assume Glooble was scum. I don't think  my reasoning changes much. He's a reasonable possible partner for Dylan if the latter is scum, and doesn't sway the chairs thinking one way or another.

Finally, what if EFHW is scum? Her Joseph hammer was pretty far before deadline, so that could be because scum just wanted to lock in the mixile. OTOH, she was herself the second-biggest wagon at the time she hammered, so it's not unreasonable to go for that. If EFHW is scum, I think Chairs is marginally less likely to be, because Chairs moved off Joseph onto ADK, whom at that point only had EFHW voting for them, and it's an odd place to concentrate 2/3 of the scumteam's votes. I'm not sure about Dylan-EFHW as a pairing. Dylan did vote EFHW at one point early on, and the two of them were the last two to throw down any votes in D1 overall.

So yeah, if EFHW's scummy then I'm not sure what to think, and otherwise I think Chairs and Dylan deserve scrutiny. Oh, and an honourable mention for Didds, who is the only non-green-coloured name on the EFHW wagon from #361 all the way to EoD1. If EFHW is green too, then Didds could well be scum, though there's some wifom around the fact that scum chose to flip MiX over Robz, though there may have been other more direct factors steering their choice.

[Glooble]

Just checking in to say I totally spaced out and forgot about this game. I'll read the day so far and weigh in tonight after my game night.

Sorry!

[A Drowned Kernel]

My instinct is that the people who followed dylan onto joseph are much more likely to be scum than he is, particularly since pretty much every one of those votes was justified by saying "Dylan's case seems solid". If he's scum he's bold scum, and I don't feel like I've played enough with him to tell if that's his style

[SpaceAnemone]

My instinct is that the people who followed dylan onto joseph are much more likely to be scum than he is, particularly since pretty much every one of those votes was justified by saying "Dylan's case seems solid". If he's scum he's bold scum, and I don't feel like I've played enough with him to tell if that's his style

I would believe you if it wasn't such a cut'n'dry error on Joseph's part. Also, Dylan would be more likely to pick up on this mistake more readily than almost all other players as either town!Dylan or scum!Dylan, because Dylan knew that they were the other person in the EFHW-Dylan-Joseph trio, rather than Glooble.

Also, this is waaay past the time I should be asleep and not playing mafia any more.. please don't expect me to be posting this late for other days in the game :-)

[WestCoastDidds]

Oh, I love it when Space shows up and starts making some links between things.  I especially appreciate it today because I am inside-out, bone tired and the clarity of thought is so far beyond what I can even begin to manage.

I am still thinking vote: EFHW is the right way to go

[Dylan32]

Checking in, and man I'm disappointed. I was already ready to start reading for partner interactions, but now I just have to reread everything...  The rest of this is stream of consciousness as I catch up on D2.

I'm not totally sure why scum killed MiX, but I'm glad I won't have the opportunity to start second guessing my read on him to the exclusion of other reads like the past.

Space #444 - I think towny Space here, definitely need to reread their D1 though.

ADK #451 - not a bad point here though, although I do think this is only scummy for Space if one of the other wagons was on scum.

VC 2.1 - This isn't based on reads, but reading through the names, Didds, Galz, and Eevee stick out, so I'm going to call that as the scum team. That's not based on any specific reads at all, and I probably shouldn't even say it, but if that's right I just want to have it in the record for the hindsight. I'll reread those three later to see if there's anything behind that instinct.

Space #453 - Paints a pretty good town!Space narrative. However, I've noticed a couple times D2 already, here ("That could have been seen as very scummy if EFHW is town.") and #445 ("... and I'll look bad if he flips as such :-P "), where they have talked about the optics of how they could come across as scummy in different scenarios, and this isn't something I remember Space being this aware of, or rather, it's not something I remember Space talking about explicitly at least. After all, I'm sure we all think about that as either alignment at times, but they don't normally use that in their arguments as far as I recall.

chairs #455 - I'm curious as to why faust here. Is it just poking with a stick so he'll do something, or is there some kind of read-based reason?

Who is, then?

--snip--


Same could be said of Eevee's position, but I already took a look at Eevee, having been a bit suspicious before, so I think he's okay for now.

--snip--

That sentence comes across as extremely scum!partnery to me rather than just "I'm leaning town on Eevee."

ADK #461 - Yeah, I'm definitely not a little wary about some of the people who joined me without any kind of questioning or explanation. Like there were a couple (don't remember who and not going back right now) that went back and forth on thinking if it was actually a scum case or town mistake, and I think those people are more likely to be the other town folks on that wagon with me.  Also, as much as I would love to say I don't think I would be that bold as scum, honestly it's probably NAI. I might be a little more hesitant in general to play like that as scum, but in this scenario, I probably would have latched onto that either way. Actually, now that I think about it, as scum, I probably would have softened as Joseph's wagon faded the first time in order to hop on a different misexile while keeping Joseph under scrutiny hoping for any other slight inconsistency to be able to push the misexile through on a later day. But I guess this means nothing but wifom.

Space #462 - Yeah, knowing that I was the other person is definitely why I caught that. I actually saw it after Joseph made the initial mistake, but at the time I just assumed he typed the wrong name (like I guess he really did), but then the justification just didn't make sense to me, and maybe I was totally misreading what he was saying. With hindsight, I wish a couple other people had defended Joseph a little less and let him speak for himself to possibly clear that up.

Didds #463 - Why were you originally thinking EFHW was the right way to go?

[Dylan32]

Ladies and gentlemen, tip your waitresses, don't play mafia at 1 am, and try the veal.

[Glooble]

I'm halfway through a reread of Day 1 and I have to go to church now, but I wanted to get a thought down- Dylan's realization of Joseph's mistake and subsequent push for a Joseph exile came when Joseph already had a number of votes on him for a number of different reasons. One of these votes is from Robz. I hadn't realized this- for some reason I had it in my head that Dylan had started the Joseph wagon. To me, this strengthens the Dylan scum narrative a bit- Dylan might have seen Joseph's mistake while looking back at Joseph's post in search of a way to push that wagon, which would be safer with Robz already there.

That being said, I'm still townreading Dylan more than I'm scumreading him. The people I'm a little more suspicious of on this reread so far are EFHW and chairs. Chairs does a lot of lazily jumping on wagons without much explanation. EFHW is more of a gut feeling at this point.

[Robz888]

We should definitely not exile space, since they seem townie and for them to be scum Glooble would be even more likely to be scum.

MiX is a weird kill to me. In my last scum game, my team tried to use the amount of attention and distraction he generates to our advantage. Obviously this scum team did not see similar value here.

[Robz888]

ADK/Eevee/Glooble? That’s the team most likely to kill MiX! Maybe a real expert scum team would expect me to think this if they killed MiX, though.

[EFHW]

We should definitely not exile space, since they seem townie and for them to be scum Glooble would be even more likely to be scum.

MiX is a weird kill to me. In my last scum game, my team tried to use the amount of attention and distraction he generates to our advantage. Obviously this scum team did not see similar value here.

Well, he's extremely difficult to misexile.

[EFHW]

I guess they could also be trying to make me look bad, since MiX was dead-set on exiling me. I also often advocate nk'g MiX when I am scum.

[EFHW]

re: Dylan's long post, I agree with him on most of his points. I don't have a scumread on Galzria, though.

People who were excited by Dylan's scum!Joseph narrative: Dylan, Galzria, Eevee, Glooble, chairs.
People who were not: EFHW, Didds, faust, Space, ADK, Robz, MiX (?).

I think it's reasonable to assume there is at least one scum in {Galz, Eevee, Glooble, chairs}.

[faust]

Vote: chairs

[A Drowned Kernel]

re: Dylan's long post, I agree with him on most of his points. I don't have a scumread on Galzria, though.

People who were excited by Dylan's scum!Joseph narrative: Dylan, Galzria, Eevee, Glooble, chairs.
People who were not: EFHW, Didds, faust, Space, ADK, Robz, MiX (?).

I think it's reasonable to assume there is at least one scum in {Galz, Eevee, Glooble, chairs}.

It's odd that you include yourself on that second list even though you were the one who hammered him

[faust]

re: Dylan's long post, I agree with him on most of his points. I don't have a scumread on Galzria, though.

People who were excited by Dylan's scum!Joseph narrative: Dylan, Galzria, Eevee, Glooble, chairs.
People who were not: EFHW, Didds, faust, Space, ADK, Robz, MiX (?).

I think it's reasonable to assume there is at least one scum in {Galz, Eevee, Glooble, chairs}.

It's odd that you include yourself on that second list even though you were the one who hammered him

Why is that odd?