Here is the claim list:
ADK - UB (0 letters)
Calam - Gov (2 V's)
LaLight - Watcher (2 I's)
E! - VT (0 letters)
Swan - VT (0 letters)
Yuma - VT (0 letters)
WCD - VT (0 letters)
The order given was [E!, Swowl, Yuma, LL, WCD].
Prior to any claims, the info we all had was that there had the be at least VV (bc of Skum!RB flip and Gov flip). That theoretically would solve the situation right there. We need there 2 be 2 letters, there can be a max of 6 letters.
First thing that stands out here in the claim is obviously that LL jumped the order. Why do that as town? Why do that as skum?
- As Town... IDK. I can't think of a pro town reason, but that is not like condemning. I just don't know why do it.
- As Skum, if they knew that there was exactly 2 letters in play... they could do it so that their position does not look as skummy since they know all players will be claiming VT (or, I guess because it says skum doesn't know who gets an Acetic modifier if they do get it, they would know there is a max of 1 more letter). Either way, it is safe. They claim Watcher, that is 2 more letters... even if 1 more player were to of claim the max of 1 more letter that is still only 5 total letters, which is believable.
So, for the jumping the order bit... actually I guess that is weird. Not really a lot of upside for town, and if they are skum in this spot, it would be completely safe.
The next thing to consider would be why claim Watcher?
- It has to do with the role and the number of letters. Now, it is NOT skummy that they are saying that they watched ADK all nights, I feel like that is what most of us would do yeah? But that does make it safe.
- Also, it is never a risk.
- Also, what are the alternatives?
Tracker - nope, way to hard to fabricate and be believable. especially if they know there are only VTs left minus 1 potential. So risk plus reward is not there.
Role Blocker - same as tracker... pretty much GTD they have to do null results, which always look bad. and they could still get caught if someone does have that last letter with a result.
Jail Keeper - OK this woulllllddd be good, bc they could make the same claim as Watcher (proc ADK every night). The issue here is that if there is that "other letter" and it is RB or JK... while it would look fine right then, if we did find skum on the next lynch it would limit the lynch pool to PRs (bc if LL is skum here then the set up is 2 letters or 3 letters, and we already had RB flip... so next flip would be *NOT* one of the roles that makes sense if there was another letter)... and actually even then that is a double letter claim so, even with one other letter potentially left to claim behind it is risky.
Virgin - bad. looks skummy.
Commuter - bad. if there is a commuter or a BG or a Virgin, that is a lot of letters again.
Bodyguard - OK. Claim to target ADK everynight, same as above.
PGO - bad. skummish, and safe. like the same for all the single letter ones in this spot. Double letter is just more believable.
Vig - OK this could of been a claim. Except the whole MM/E! thing would bring into question maybe why not shoot E!. But also, meh on that. So they could of picked this. But then again, navigating the kill and all is complicated once it is public in that spot.
Spirit - Never.
So, I guess the the points against them would be that Watcher would of been just like the best all around claim to make. However, if I were watcher in their spot, I would of done what they claim to of done... so it kind of just comes down to the jumping of the gun in the order of claims. I guess the key thing to take away from that is if they were skum they would of known it was safe.
Now.... on the other hand, where LL is town...
Everyone else claimed VT.
- E claimed prior, which regardless of alignment, they claim VT there.
- Then they claimed, bringing the total letter count to 4 [VV+II]
- Then Swowl claims VT. I will admit, if I were skum here I would probably claim VT. Even if I were skum with someone else that had not claimed, it would mean that I knew there were 4-6 letters in play... so claiming would be risky.
- Then Yuma claims VT. They could of claimed, but again, same concept as "if swowl had one person behind", there is still a risk. Unless they are skum with WCD, in which case they for sure could of safely claimed something.
- Last was WCD, who obviously could of safely claimed anything up to 2 letters, but did not.
So essentially skum exists in either LL/VT or VT/VT. If LL chose to claim VT and is skum knowing there are no other roles, then that would be a lynch pool strictly of all VT players, a pool of 2 skum out of 5 players. If they are skum fake claiming, knowing there will be no other claims, then that would be us looking in a pool of 4 VTs, where there is 1 skum out of 4 VTs.
So yeah... it goes against my previous read on E/LL not being a likely combo, but I guess just looking at LL it is possible.
I had not thought about it before in the mind set regarding that skum would of known exactly what was safe with such a limited amount of players left based on what they rolled.
Thoughts?
PPE2
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Topic: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Game over) (Read 126611 times)