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[scolapasta]

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

The stealing is maybe the single thing in this game that I've contemplated the most. I think what makes it so confusing for me is that there is no clear place for my train of thought to begin. But I can try to organize my thoughts on this, as it's something I've wanted to do since the beginning of the day. Let's start with the facts.
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
(These first four points are pretty simple and more or less take care of themselves without further explanation. Now we get to the good stuff.)

5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
Joth is found (by eevee) to have the owl wings N2.
9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter.
10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.
11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.

Did I miss any facts?

Now that that's done, we can start thinking up what ways we have of explaining everything.

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Made some corrections in bold. Left the emoji as is. Added a fact

So in analyzing this stuff, I think the first things to consider are the two claims by faust (6 and 11). If faust is town, then he's telling the truth about those things. That would mean that joth stole from him N2, and despite being a treasure hunter, joth had no special stealing privileges. It seems to me that the only explanation (tell me if you have another)  is some sort of factional stealing ability, similar to the factional nk. That fits pretty well, and also answers the question of, how could thief!joth have stolen the rope N1 and given it to the scum!sailor N2, if he was busy giving the notebook to mix on N2? The answer, of course, is somebody other than joth used the factional steal N1. So all that works out, I think. The next thing to consider would be, did joth lie to his mates about the owl? I was bothered earlier by the fact that joth chose to steal from faust N2 when he already knew that Joseph had an owl piece. It could be that scum has some type of itemcop or owlcop and knew faust had an owl piece. If scum were owl hunting, joth either lied, or there's some other use that mafia had for the owl. But the explanation might be simpler. Maybe Joth wasn't going for owl pieces at all. He couldn't justify owl hunting to his scum buddies. Faust was confirmed in thread to have an unidentified item of some sort, so the mafia targeted him, without specifically aiming for the owl. All of this looks pretty internally consistent, and a viable narrative to explain everything. (And the only viable narrative that has a town!faust.)

Next, we'll explore a scum!faust world.

Questions? Comments? Points you disagree with?
Let me know.   

(Hopefully) to be continued.

Alright let's keep analyzing the stealing. (I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that nobody else is interested in this, but I think it's still worthwhile for my own benefit.)

So, the other road to go down is that faust is scum. This would mean he's almost definitely lying about being robbed N2. Why/how would scum rob scum? So, he probably just gave the wings to joth, then. That's pretty weird because N1 faust offers to trade the wings to town!mix, and then N2 he decides to give it to his scumbuddy? Why not do that right away N1? I guess it's possible that joth only wanted the owl after he got the notebook N1, so on N1 faust and the scumteam had no use for the owl yet. Then starting N2 joth lies to scum about why he needs the owl, or there is some other use scum had for the owl. What's unclear though, is this: if scum didn't steal from faust, from whom did they steal, and especially, if they were going for the owl, why not steal from Joseph? They stole from Joseph N3 (at least if we take Joseph's word for it, which I do, mostly), why not steal from him N2?
@Joseph, are you like 1-shot theft proof, or something?

Long story short, I think there are more holes in the scum!faust narrative than in the town!faust one. But neither is impossible.

I think I'm done meditating on the thefts, so we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

I do think N1 scum was unaware of the importance of the owl. Note that in addition to the stealing, I'm sure there's more to the owl than meets the eye, and that the only way to find out is through the codebook / notebook which faust is keeping to himself. And joth gave to him. I guess it's possible joth did that to set faust up? That seems less likely to me, but is a possibility.

Later tonight, I will go back to all the stealing that happened to try to see if I can understand it better.

I'm not sure I like the narrative that scum can steal and NK. (unless that's what makes this a bastard game). It feels more likely that it is somehow tied to roles.

[skip wooznum]

I agree with eevee's analysis of scola's D4. I'd like to just add one thing.

Scola seems to believe he deserves similar levels of towncred as sudgy for his D4. Now, if there truly are 3 living scum, then yes, they both deserve tons of towncred for putting that lynch through before Joseph had a chance to shift alliances. But if there are only 2 living scum, then scum knows there are only 2 living scum. So, you get no cred for hammering caught scum, cuz he's getting hammered regardless. This is fairly obvious. Sudgy's towniness had nothing to do with the actual lynch and everything to do with his entire approach and attitude in his posts around the claim. He was genuinely excited that we caught scum and it showed through in his posts. Scola's posts are almost exactly the opposite. He's hedgy to the point that it looks like he's basically praying for joth to come in and make a reasonable defense of himself and avoid the lynch, and maybe even lynch eevee instead. So, his bid for towncred baffles me, as I think his play was fairly scummy.

Ppe 3

[scolapasta]

Skip your post was useful clarifiyng what was stolen. If you have a chance though,  or if anyone else does, could you reformat but by Night?

i.e.
N1 A was stolen, b was stolen.
N2 C was stolen.

etc

If not, I can try to get to that tonight.

[scolapasta]

I agree with eevee's analysis of scola's D4. I'd like to just add one thing.

Scola seems to believe he deserves similar levels of towncred as sudgy for his D4. Now, if there truly are 3 living scum, then yes, they both deserve tons of towncred for putting that lynch through before Joseph had a chance to shift alliances. But if there are only 2 living scum, then scum knows there are only 2 living scum. So, you get no cred for hammering caught scum, cuz he's getting hammered regardless. This is fairly obvious. Sudgy's towniness had nothing to do with the actual lynch and everything to do with his entire approach and attitude in his posts around the claim. He was genuinely excited that we caught scum and it showed through in his posts. Scola's posts are almost exactly the opposite. He's hedgy to the point that it looks like he's basically praying for joth to come in and make a reasonable defense of himself and avoid the lynch, and maybe even lynch eevee instead. So, his bid for towncred baffles me, as I think his play was fairly scummy.

Ppe 3

I did explain my hedging. At the time, I thought eevee was lying based on setup:

"Everyone may pass 1 item to another player at night in addition to any other night actions. Items you obtain during the night through this or any other ability will be given to you at the start of the next day."

To me this mean that if joth had in fact stolen (or was given) the wings on N2, he would not actually received them until D3. Which would have meant eevee was lying.

I was in the process of asking the mod in QT about that (I didn't want to reveal my suspicion of eevee publicly, so he couldn't hedge a defense), and then joth out right confessed. Which is when I hammered pretty much immediately.

I agree with you if only 2 scum, joth gets hammered anyway, but I do think scumapasta would wait at least a little to see if joseph would unvote or some other shenigans could happen. I do know see that my hammering is not as towny as sudgy. Sometimes it's hard for me to evaluate because, honestly, as town, I think everything I do is towny.

[scolapasta]

I will try a quick take at the stealing list I asked for. (if it's wrong, let me know, I'm trying to type this up quick and then go run some quick errands).

[skip wooznum]

Lots to respond to, but I don't have that much time (partner's birthday tomrrow) so I'll see what I can get to here. (and will be on later, at least for some short times to post quick thoughts).

Yes, gave to sudgy, no one claiming they needed it, felt safe giving to someone I read as towny.

You mention the stealing."(I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that nobody else is interested in this, but I think it's still worthwhile for my own benefit.)"

I'm fairly certain I mentioned the stealing a while back, let me see if I can find it: Here it is:

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

Because I 100% agree with you that there's some weirdness going on here. So thank you for your detailed post on what was claimed stolen and when.

I really don't see why scumapasta would push the 1v1 each day. (unless there's a 3rd sailior, but I've basically discounted that idea). I think that and D4 speak to my being town.

when I said skip vs mail-mi was 50-50, do note that meant a change in the direction of mail-mi. I had been leaning more towards skip until it was pointed out that that would mean scum would've started with both codebook and notebook. BTW, my still unanswered question to the mod (no worries, I know you're busy) was to ask if item distribution was random?

Assuming it's not, I'd be ok with a mail-mi lynch today. I do think the fact above and skip's desire to remind people of the stealing push me in that direction.

It is possible that faust is not scum. I do think it's unlikely.

Am I the only one who things joth giving the codebook / notebook to faust (via Mix) and then faust lying about it (saying on one day joth is telling the truth, and then doling out new info* the next day) quite suspicious? I don't see a valid reason not to expose that the day he got the items. (if true, it would be good info to know more about Joseph's true role, and it would show that Joth was lying, and add to his scuminess factor)

So while I do still more strongly about faust and prefer that, I am currently off the fence on skip / mail-mi. I would love to get an answer to my question on items before we vote, but if I don't I'll assume non random. And that points to mail-mi. I could go with that another day.

Yes, you expressed interest in the stealing, and it was unfair of me to suggest that nobody was interested. What I meant, was nobody other than you was interested. If you look at my post, I actually start by quoting your post, because it was the catalyst to get me to start doing the work.

About pushing 1v1 each day, I distinctly remember that on D2 galz and mail-mi had competing wagons, and you were pushing galz hard. I think you're confusing pushing the 1v1 (potentially a towny thing) with pushing me and not pushing mail-mi (definitely a scummy thing).

I highly doubt you will get an answer about the item distribution.

Yes it is strange that faust lied about the notebook. But it is also strange that he told the truth the next day. Maybe even more strange, I would venture. 

[scolapasta]

OK, here are skip's numbers, reordred by Night:

N1:
1)Didds claims she was stolen from on N1. (Bullet)
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
5)eevee claims he was stolen from on N1. (Rope)

--

10)Joth only became treasure hunter after N1.

--

N2:
2)Joth claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl torso)
6)faust claims he was stolen from on N2. (Owl wings)
13)joth gives mix the notebook N2.


--

N3:
3)adk claims he was stolen from on N3, but he had nothing that could be stolen.
4)Joseph claims responsibility for points 1-3.
7)Joseph claims he was stolen from on N3. (Owl torso I think but can't find it now.)
12)eevee claims being roped N3, nobody claims being roped N2. (This is relevant indirectly.)


--

9)Joth flips goon treasure hunter. (11)faust claims recruited treasure hunters do not recieve stealing abilities.)

[skip wooznum]

Partners, I think that you should do the plan tonight that I suggested doing last night.

This post (unlike the one trying to convince Joseph to join the bad guys) does not really read like a bluff. It therefore gives a slight indication as to who the scumteam is. Would joth give this message in-thread if faust were on his team? I think he'd probably just trust faust to make the right decision concerning whatever this plan is that he's talking about. I know, wine and stuff, but whatever, it's worth pointing out.

This definitely feels like confirmation bias.

I very much doubt that it's confirmation bias because I noticed it during N4, when I still thought faust was very scummy. (I waited till now to mention it, but I noticed it a long time ago. I do that sometimes, I can't really say why.) I will admit that it's weak, just not conf!bias. 

[scolapasta]

Lots to respond to, but I don't have that much time (partner's birthday tomrrow) so I'll see what I can get to here. (and will be on later, at least for some short times to post quick thoughts).

Yes, gave to sudgy, no one claiming they needed it, felt safe giving to someone I read as towny.

You mention the stealing."(I'm becoming increasingly suspicious that nobody else is interested in this, but I think it's still worthwhile for my own benefit.)"

I'm fairly certain I mentioned the stealing a while back, let me see if I can find it: Here it is:

So what do people think about who was able to steal? i.e. I don't think joth could N1, since he flipped goon.

Because I 100% agree with you that there's some weirdness going on here. So thank you for your detailed post on what was claimed stolen and when.

I really don't see why scumapasta would push the 1v1 each day. (unless there's a 3rd sailior, but I've basically discounted that idea). I think that and D4 speak to my being town.

when I said skip vs mail-mi was 50-50, do note that meant a change in the direction of mail-mi. I had been leaning more towards skip until it was pointed out that that would mean scum would've started with both codebook and notebook. BTW, my still unanswered question to the mod (no worries, I know you're busy) was to ask if item distribution was random?

Assuming it's not, I'd be ok with a mail-mi lynch today. I do think the fact above and skip's desire to remind people of the stealing push me in that direction.

It is possible that faust is not scum. I do think it's unlikely.

Am I the only one who things joth giving the codebook / notebook to faust (via Mix) and then faust lying about it (saying on one day joth is telling the truth, and then doling out new info* the next day) quite suspicious? I don't see a valid reason not to expose that the day he got the items. (if true, it would be good info to know more about Joseph's true role, and it would show that Joth was lying, and add to his scuminess factor)

So while I do still more strongly about faust and prefer that, I am currently off the fence on skip / mail-mi. I would love to get an answer to my question on items before we vote, but if I don't I'll assume non random. And that points to mail-mi. I could go with that another day.

Yes, you expressed interest in the stealing, and it was unfair of me to suggest that nobody was interested. What I meant, was nobody other than you was interested. If you look at my post, I actually start by quoting your post, because it was the catalyst to get me to start doing the work.

About pushing 1v1 each day, I distinctly remember that on D2 galz and mail-mi had competing wagons, and you were pushing galz hard. I think you're confusing pushing the 1v1 (potentially a towny thing) with pushing me and not pushing mail-mi (definitely a scummy thing).

I highly doubt you will get an answer about the item distribution.

Yes it is strange that faust lied about the notebook. But it is also strange that he told the truth the next day. Maybe even more strange, I would venture.

True you did quote me.  And I agree I may not get an answer about item distribution, though I'd expect then I'd get "I can't answer that." Silence, currently, I think just means gloobie is busy.

on D2 I did push Galz. Note part of my reasoning was that he was so adamant about there not being a 1v1. So I do tend to think that this push (albeit wrong) was still part of my "it's 1v1" belief. I hope that makes sense.

And up until recently, I was on the scum!skip side of things.

[scolapasta]

Did Joseph claim one of stealing from joth n2?

[skip wooznum]

Did Joseph claim one of stealing from joth n2?

I'm pretty sure he did.

[scolapasta]

Some quotes, about 1v1 on early days:

Feels to me at this point we should lynch the 1v1, and we will learn a lot from that.

If town vs town, we can give further scrutiny to those who advocated for it (myself included).
If town vs scum, we can give further scrutiny to those who were against it.

And if scum vs scum (different factions), then win-win!

One thing I want to know about setup is how town PRs work*. i.e. as I hypothesized at one point that people who have town PRs can only do things if they get their needed item.

* I'm not saying anyone can answer me directly, because they may not want to reveal their PR

But it does seem likely scum can do things without items. I mean several blocks and steals happened on N1. Unless town could do that without items, of course.

I also was planning on calling out whoever first posted about scum being able to steal and block early in D1, but it turns out that was recently departed DatSwan.

so my case on skip continues:

So if scum can do things, wouldn't it make sense for them to claim the same item (and then role) as someone else and then block them from getting it.

I will be sad if we don't lynch one of skip or mail-mi today, or maybe galz. We should have yesterday, before so many moved to awaclus (including all three of the above).

Either way, I do think he's scum. We'll find out soon enough.

I don't, good job lynching town yet again and avoiding every single 1v1 again, great job town proud of ya.

Now claim to get robbed.

Hey, I was on skip all day, and said I wanted to the 1-1 since yesterday. Switched when that wasn't going anywhere. But OK.

[scolapasta]

it might be useful (though not conclusive) to see who was in favor of the 1v1 and who wasn't.
(in other words: 1v1v!1v1 )

Not conclusive, well because of galz. Actually it'd be interesting to see where everyone who is now dead was.

Also two other quick things before I run (back later). we never found out what galz $ could / would buy, how that worked.

And has anyone looked at how joth (confirmed scum) voted? will that give us any clues?

[skip wooznum]

And the thought of confirming you actually have a baseball cap by giving it to somebody honestly hasn't crossed your mind?

I don't feel the need to confirm I have it. I'd rather it not fall into the wrong hands.

This post is so scummy I can't even.

You have an item. You don't know what it does, and nobody else has claimed to need it.  There is no outside confirmation whatsoever that this item exists. So you're alleging that town!you makes no effort to confirm your claim, indeed feels no need to confirm your claim, and instead uselessly hoards the item for a vague fear that it might "fall into the wrong hands". Scum can steal. They could have taken it from you at any time. You haven't had a single townread at any point in this game that you felt safe giving your item to?

[skip wooznum]

And with that:

vote: mail-mi

[Joseph2302]

Did Joseph claim one of stealing from joth n2?

I'm pretty sure he did.

Yes

[Joseph2302]

Which is the only reason you all haven't lost yet, because otherwise joth would have won alone

[scolapasta]

Which is the only reason you all haven't lost yet, because otherwise joth would have won alone

I thought you claimed Treasure Hunter just went away, and game want on.

[skip wooznum]

Lolz 

[A Drowned Kernel]

Haven't read everything in Skip's posts but I'm down for vote: mail-mi

[mail-mi]

What am I at, L-1?

All I can say is, I hope we're not in lylo or else gg scum.

[scolapasta]

We'll find out soon enough.

vote: mail-mi

I'm also wondering if this won't be enough. What if the hat makes you loved, and that's why mail-mil kept it?

[Eevee]

Soon we will see. If we lynched town again, scum deserves it.

[mail-mi]

And if that wasn't it, vote: mail-mi

Good luck y'all.

[Glooble]

FLAVOR COMING TOMORROW

Final Vote Count

faust (1): Joseph2302
mail-mi (4): Eevee, skip wooznum, A Drowned Kernel, scolapasta
Not voting (2): mail-mi, faust

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

mail-mi has been lynched. He was a Mafia Sailor.

Night 5 has begun! It will end at 7:15 pm ET on Sunday, May 23rd.

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