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Author Topic: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 267555 times)

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MiX

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1725 on: June 15, 2020, 05:19:35 pm »

So assuming we believe MiX's claim, what can we conclude about chairs's alignment, since we certainly can have scum cops in this setup and if a scum cop got a not town result a non-partner they might still share it with town.

Actually, I'm not sure they would. If I'm a scum cop and I find a  mysterious third party, what are the options:

1. They're a SK -- keep alive for a while to get those double kills
2. They're a traitor -- really don't want to out them
3. They're a survivor/other neutral -- some value in reporting for town cred, but still results in a suboptimal lynch

I've convinced myself that this development makes chairs pretty towny if MiX flips anything but town. So that means we have Glooble as IC, faust and scola as psuedo-ICs, chairs as a conditional pseudo-IC, Uncle and MiX as claimed 3rd parties. Our pool of possible scum is really just 10 players right now, 9 for those of us not on that list who know our own alignment.

My read on joth from this post but also other things is joth is town. So for me that leaves 9 suspects, if I accept MiX as 3rd party.

I can't flip town so I have no idea what joth's talking about.
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Rhand

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1726 on: June 15, 2020, 05:30:39 pm »

So assuming we believe MiX's claim, what can we conclude about chairs's alignment, since we certainly can have scum cops in this setup and if a scum cop got a not town result a non-partner they might still share it with town.

Actually, I'm not sure they would. If I'm a scum cop and I find a  mysterious third party, what are the options:

1. They're a SK -- keep alive for a while to get those double kills
2. They're a traitor -- really don't want to out them
3. They're a survivor/other neutral -- some value in reporting for town cred, but still results in a suboptimal lynch

I've convinced myself that this development makes chairs pretty towny if MiX flips anything but town. So that means we have Glooble as IC, faust and scola as psuedo-ICs, chairs as a conditional pseudo-IC, Uncle and MiX as claimed 3rd parties. Our pool of possible scum is really just 10 players right now, 9 for those of us not on that list who know our own alignment.

My read on joth from this post but also other things is joth is town. So for me that leaves 9 suspects, if I accept MiX as 3rd party.

I can't flip town so I have no idea what joth's talking about.
Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?
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MiX

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1727 on: June 15, 2020, 05:32:10 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.
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scolapasta

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1728 on: June 15, 2020, 05:34:06 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.


Why not? I know I'm not the only one who thinks joth is town.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1729 on: June 15, 2020, 05:34:22 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.

If a Mafia team has only two people in a game this size, they would be almost certain it’s multi-ball, and would be looking for other scum.

If we’re not in a multi-ball setup, my suspicion of Swowl just went up greatly.

And yes, Chairs is Town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1730 on: June 15, 2020, 05:35:25 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.

If a Mafia team has only two people in a game this size, they would be almost certain it’s multi-ball, and would be looking for other scum.

If we’re not in a multi-ball setup, my suspicion of Swowl just went up greatly.

And yes, Chairs is Town.

Err, Rhand. Phone posting. Confused myself on who said what.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1731 on: June 15, 2020, 05:36:02 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.
Oh that was to strengthen your argument that Joth’s post makes no sense.

PPE: do you have unannounced multiball games on this site? :/
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1732 on: June 15, 2020, 05:39:48 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.
Oh that was to strengthen your argument that Joth’s post makes no sense.

PPE: do you have unannounced multiball games on this site? :/

If it’s not an open setup, anything is possible. Generally, most games are not, however in a game this size it’s somewhat more likely.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1733 on: June 15, 2020, 05:49:42 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.
Oh that was to strengthen your argument that Joth’s post makes no sense.

PPE: do you have unannounced multiball games on this site? :/

If it’s not an open setup, anything is possible. Generally, most games are not, however in a game this size it’s somewhat more likely.
That happened on mtgs once and will never be repeated because of town’s anger at the end lol.
I always saw multiball as bastard.
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MiX

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1734 on: June 15, 2020, 05:59:10 pm »

Why even would mafia ever spend stormlight on a cop shot?

To catch a third-party? I don't know why you wouldn't just invert.

I don't know why you quoted me I think chairs is 100% town. I don't think joth is.
Oh that was to strengthen your argument that Joth’s post makes no sense.

PPE: do you have unannounced multiball games on this site? :/

If it’s not an open setup, anything is possible. Generally, most games are not, however in a game this size it’s somewhat more likely.
That happened on mtgs once and will never be repeated because of town’s anger at the end lol.
I always saw multiball as bastard.

Given what I know, I doubt there's multiball. My warform most likely has some sort of killing ability, and so I wouldn't be surprised if I was the dedicated SK.

Multiball is allowed but frowned upon in RMMs around here.
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1735 on: June 15, 2020, 06:04:00 pm »

When we say "multiball" are we only referring to 2 scum teams, or are we including scum + SK. I don't think there's a huge difference between the two in terms of bastardness.

I also don't understand why people are scumreading me for making a post that comes to the same conclusion as they have. It might be obvious to you that scum wouldn't cop, but it's not obvious to me. Especially in a setup this big.

Consider this. You're a Scum Truthseer. At some point, you have to assume, you're going to have to claim. If you do anything but cop, you will have to explain why you didn't cop. Sure you can pretend to cop, but there's so much happening in this game -- watchers, trackers, redirectors. Actually copping is the safest way to make sure you don't get caught not copping, and there are definitely players who would do that for that reason alone. So it's not crazy to talk these things out.
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MiX

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1736 on: June 15, 2020, 06:05:08 pm »

When we say "multiball" are we only referring to 2 scum teams, or are we including scum + SK. I don't think there's a huge difference between the two in terms of bastardness.

I also don't understand why people are scumreading me for making a post that comes to the same conclusion as they have. It might be obvious to you that scum wouldn't cop, but it's not obvious to me. Especially in a setup this big.

Consider this. You're a Scum Truthseer. At some point, you have to assume, you're going to have to claim. If you do anything but cop, you will have to explain why you didn't cop. Sure you can pretend to cop, but there's so much happening in this game -- watchers, trackers, redirectors. Actually copping is the safest way to make sure you don't get caught not copping, and there are definitely players who would do that for that reason alone. So it's not crazy to talk these things out.

The best way to cop is to alignment invert. That also makes you target a person.
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1737 on: June 15, 2020, 06:10:15 pm »

So assuming we believe MiX's claim, what can we conclude about chairs's alignment, since we certainly can have scum cops in this setup and if a scum cop got a not town result a non-partner they might still share it with town.

Actually, I'm not sure they would. If I'm a scum cop and I find a  mysterious third party, what are the options:

1. They're a SK -- keep alive for a while to get those double kills
2. They're a traitor -- really don't want to out them
3. They're a survivor/other neutral -- some value in reporting for town cred, but still results in a suboptimal lynch

I've convinced myself that this development makes chairs pretty towny if MiX flips anything but town. So that means we have Glooble as IC, faust and scola as psuedo-ICs, chairs as a conditional pseudo-IC, Uncle and MiX as claimed 3rd parties. Our pool of possible scum is really just 10 players right now, 9 for those of us not on that list who know our own alignment.

also scola and me are town
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1738 on: June 15, 2020, 06:18:52 pm »

So assuming we believe MiX's claim, what can we conclude about chairs's alignment, since we certainly can have scum cops in this setup and if a scum cop got a not town result a non-partner they might still share it with town.

Actually, I'm not sure they would. If I'm a scum cop and I find a  mysterious third party, what are the options:

1. They're a SK -- keep alive for a while to get those double kills
2. They're a traitor -- really don't want to out them
3. They're a survivor/other neutral -- some value in reporting for town cred, but still results in a suboptimal lynch

I've convinced myself that this development makes chairs pretty towny if MiX flips anything but town. So that means we have Glooble as IC, faust and scola as psuedo-ICs, chairs as a conditional pseudo-IC, Uncle and MiX as claimed 3rd parties. Our pool of possible scum is really just 10 players right now, 9 for those of us not on that list who know our own alignment.

also scola and me are town

Why you as well?
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MiX

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1739 on: June 15, 2020, 06:19:35 pm »

My town list is scolapasta, faust, Didds, Rhand, chairs, LL, Glooble and Uncle (because why not). Surely we can lynch scum today without me trying, right?
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1740 on: June 15, 2020, 07:34:09 pm »

My town list is scolapasta, faust, Didds, Rhand, chairs, LL, Glooble and Uncle (because why not). Surely we can lynch scum today without me trying, right?

What do you think about GHS? More or less scummy than hypercube?
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MiX

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1741 on: June 15, 2020, 07:37:24 pm »

My town list is scolapasta, faust, Didds, Rhand, chairs, LL, Glooble and Uncle (because why not). Surely we can lynch scum today without me trying, right?

What do you think about GHS? More or less scummy than hypercube?

More.
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1742 on: June 15, 2020, 07:56:26 pm »

Yeah, now that I have some of my own reads I do want to go back to 60+ pages of D1 to see others' reads. Like that one GHS post. Anyone remember the #?
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1743 on: June 15, 2020, 08:11:10 pm »

Yeah, now that I have some of my own reads I do want to go back to 60+ pages of D1 to see others' reads. Like that one GHS post. Anyone remember the #?

Found it:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=20258.msg841732#msg841732
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1744 on: June 15, 2020, 10:49:15 pm »

Sorry my internet stinks right now because i just moved.

I'd really like these people who think that im scummy to say why.

AND- Faust and Hypercube have the same allignment. so if glooble's informant didnt lie- then I guess they are are both town without inverters and bus drivers.

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1745 on: June 15, 2020, 11:06:39 pm »

Sorry my internet stinks right now because i just moved.

I'd really like these people who think that im scummy to say why.

AND- Faust and Hypercube have the same allignment. so if glooble's informant didnt lie- then I guess they are are both town without inverters and bus drivers.

Unsure why a person with the modified cop ability wouldn't have targeted me. You know, to turn it into a regular cop ability?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1746 on: June 16, 2020, 01:14:32 am »

Well, that throws a wrench into my theories.

unvote

Even though hypercube would be a prime target for alignment inversion.
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1747 on: June 16, 2020, 01:15:45 am »

Or me for that matter, I guess. It suffices if one of us was inverted to invalidate that result. Hm.
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (PMs sent!)
« Reply #1748 on: June 16, 2020, 01:45:42 am »

I realize that you are probably still angry. That is pleasant to know. Much as your perpetual health, I have come to rely upon your dissatisfaction with me. It is one of the cosmere's great constants, I should think.

Vote Count 2.2


MiX (2): LaLight, jotheonah
Galzria (1): MiX
hypercube (2): Uncleeurope, Swowl

Not Voting (10): Dylan32, faust, WestCoastDidds, Rhand, Galzria, GreatHallScout, Glooble, Jimmmmm, hypercube, chairs, scolapasta

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Day 2 lasts until 11:00AM FT on June 22, 2020.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 11:14:53 am by mail-mi »
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Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1749 on: June 16, 2020, 01:46:32 am »

I still feel it's worth to share my thoughts on hyper.

The initial assumption is that - well, he was a counter-wagon to EFHW, right? So that's gotta a town tell.
Now let's look at that wagon:

hypercube (6): chairs, MiX, Rhand, Glooble, jotheonah, EFHW

Who do we have? chairs, who has been extremely towny. MiX, who is pretty certainly third-party. Rhand, who was instrumental in getting the EFHW lynch instead of mine. The IC Glooble. Then comes joth, who admittedly I don't have such good things to say about, but the first 4 votes on this wagon did not come from scum I believe.

Compare to the final D1 vote count:

chairs (1): Dylan32
EFHW (10): faust, Uncleeurope, Jimmmmm, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, chairs, MiX, Rhand, GreatHallScout, hypercube
faust (6): scolapasta, EFHW, Galzria, cayvie, Swowl, jotheonah

All the people who started the hyper wagon are now on EFHW. The only overlap of my wagon with hyper's is {joth, EFHW}. Now EFHW is going to vote anywhere out of self-preservation, but it's notable that

vote: faust. Self-preservation, obviously.
she left the hyper wagon when it had 4 votes, to be the second vote on another wagon. True self-preservation would be to try and keep the main counter-wagon alive.

The only thing that's kind of a question mark in this is joth. I would not be opposed to lynching him first, as that will help us determine to what extent exactly the hyper wagon was town-driven.

There is also the fact that our QT conversations have me a little suspicious, hyper seemed very fine with sharing information about who he's targeting when town I think would have been more suspicious there. And the results he has are extremely convenient.
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