Topic: M126: Game Over, Town Wins! (Read 114435 times)

WestCoastDidds · « **Reply #875 on:** April 30, 2020, 07:16:00 pm »

Quote from: scolapasta on April 30, 2020, 06:11:33 pm

I do believe this - you saw my list and you were at the bottom.

What do you think of Swan? That's my only concern with the lynch "yuma, ash, mix plan". I imagine they'll NK Dylan and you next (though still don't get the no NK either night, especially last night!).

Swan is one of my favorite favorites. I get the way he thinks and I follow his train of thought even when it’s convoluted. In this game, I trust him completely. I even think it’s funny that he is using MIC to both embrace and poke fun at Mix’s liberal use of IC characterizations.

I feel like the block is solidly town.

WestCoastDidds · « **Reply #876 on:** April 30, 2020, 07:20:20 pm »

Ready to vote for Yuma when you say so, Swowl.

yuma · « **Reply #877 on:** April 30, 2020, 07:47:33 pm »

Quote from: WestCoastDidds on April 30, 2020, 07:20:20 pm

Ready to vote for Yuma when you say so, Swowl.

Say no!

yuma · « **Reply #878 on:** April 30, 2020, 07:52:34 pm »

Also interestingly I have just noticed that ash hasn't given a conclusive opinion on me.

It is implicated that he is thinking I am townier than MiX by voting there, but after his stance on MiX hasn't really said anything. Which actually isn't that weird at all.

yuma · « **Reply #879 on:** April 30, 2020, 07:54:20 pm »

Quote from: DatSwan on April 30, 2020, 06:34:29 pm

oh for sure. just not now.

and yes. Yuma is my choice for today. UB should not claim. we should wait for yuma to check in to ensure they are not UB, but then we should lynch yuma.

Tomorrow we should claim UB.

Oh and clearly I am not UB. I have claimed VT about 5 times now.

WestCoastDidds · « **Reply #880 on:** April 30, 2020, 07:58:15 pm »

Quote from: yuma on April 30, 2020, 07:47:33 pm

Quote from: WestCoastDidds on April 30, 2020, 07:20:20 pm
Ready to vote for Yuma when you say so, Swowl.
Say no!

I find this charming!

MiX · « **Reply #881 on:** April 30, 2020, 08:00:35 pm »

Quote from: yuma on April 30, 2020, 07:52:34 pm

Also interestingly I have just noticed that ash hasn't given a conclusive opinion on me.

It is implicated that he is thinking I am townier than MiX by voting there, but after his stance on MiX hasn't really said anything. Which actually isn't that weird at all.

It says he's scum.

scolapasta · « **Reply #882 on:** April 30, 2020, 08:13:34 pm »

unvote

Need some time to think and explain a tiny bit more.

scolapasta · « **Reply #883 on:** April 30, 2020, 08:26:35 pm »

Question, when you guys want to reread someone, is there an easy way? I get you can read someone's posts, but with several simultaneous games going on, that doesn't help much. Is there a way to just filter from this thread?

yuma · « **Reply #884 on:** April 30, 2020, 08:29:23 pm »

Quote from: scolapasta on April 30, 2020, 08:26:35 pm

Question, when you guys want to reread someone, is there an easy way? I get you can read someone's posts, but with several simultaneous games going on, that doesn't help much. Is there a way to just filter from this thread?

Go to all and then search for something unique in the person's profile like posts: 695 for me

yuma · « **Reply #885 on:** April 30, 2020, 08:31:28 pm »

I just added a user name to my profile so searching "name: yuma" will be easier than remembering my post number, which could change.

ashersky · « **Reply #886 on:** April 30, 2020, 09:04:30 pm »

Quote from: yuma on April 30, 2020, 07:52:34 pm

Also interestingly I have just noticed that ash hasn't given a conclusive opinion on me.

It is implicated that he is thinking I am townier than MiX by voting there, but after his stance on MiX hasn't really said anything. Which actually isn't that weird at all.

I've really not wanted to look at you because feelz and who wants to alienate someone who gets you?

It's not like I haven't seen the points/cases put forth by others about your play -- but at this point you are just in the "not MiX, not claimed" pool. And in the scola/WCD/Datswan/Yuma pool, man, that's a tough pool to rank.

ashersky · « **Reply #887 on:** April 30, 2020, 09:06:34 pm »

Quote from: MiX on April 30, 2020, 10:47:26 am

How about this, let's scumhunt outside us two, then we lynch one of us and the other listens to the dead town. Does that sound good?

I can get on this train, I think. There is definitely something to the burn out issue we are probably both feeling.

If there's a lynch soon, we can just continue to reread during the night.

How about this? Let's assign some ISO work from the "not us, not claimant" pool:

ash will ISO scolapasta
MiX will ISO DatSwan

And we can post results. What do you think?

MiX · « **Reply #888 on:** April 30, 2020, 09:08:40 pm »

Does it have to be Swan? I was doing yuma.

scolapasta · « **Reply #889 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:01:11 pm »

OK, so I've been reading Swan, trying to find evidence that he in facy is the Keyser Sose. And man, if he is, well done. I'm not all the way through, but rereading I'm mostly convinced he's town.

But also rereading details on set up, I just realized - I've been assuming Dylan is IC because no CC. But there doesn't
to be, right? There could be no town PRs. That still makes scum!Dylans's claim on Day 2 nonetheless dangerous, as he wouldn't know at that point if there would be a CC.

Crap.

I have 2nd and 3rd and 4th guessed myself way too much. I've come up with reasoning in every other player (except Didds).

MiX · « **Reply #890 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:05:23 pm »

Quote from: scolapasta on April 30, 2020, 10:01:11 pm

OK, so I've been reading Swan, trying to find evidence that he in facy is the Keyser Sose. And man, if he is, well done. I'm not all the way through, but rereading I'm mostly convinced he's town.

But also rereading details on set up, I just realized - I've been assuming Dylan is IC because no CC. But there doesn't
to be, right? There could be no town PRs. That still makes scum!Dylans's claim on Day 2 nonetheless dangerous, as he wouldn't know at that point if there would be a CC.

Crap.

I have 2nd and 3rd and 4th guessed myself way too much. I've come up with reasoning in every other player (except Didds).

If you math it, the chances of there not being any PR given the information scum knew at the time is 1/7ths. I'm willing to give Dylan the win if they not only claimed before anyone else, but also entered a conflict with themselves (raptor), essentially making them lose on the spot if the gambit failed.

yuma · « **Reply #891 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:14:03 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on April 30, 2020, 09:04:30 pm

Quote from: yuma on April 30, 2020, 07:52:34 pm
Also interestingly I have just noticed that ash hasn't given a conclusive opinion on me.

It is implicated that he is thinking I am townier than MiX by voting there, but after his stance on MiX hasn't really said anything. Which actually isn't that weird at all.

I've really not wanted to look at you because feelz and who wants to alienate someone who gets you?

It's not like I haven't seen the points/cases put forth by others about your play -- but at this point you are just in the "not MiX, not claimed" pool. And in the scola/WCD/Datswan/Yuma pool, man, that's a tough pool to rank.

Exactly what I thought was happening. Or at least what I thought you would say.

scolapasta · « **Reply #892 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:15:52 pm »

This is me still learning set up, by why not 1/2? Oh wait, is this effectively the Monty Hall problem? except T is much more likely than any other letter. So maybe not 1/2 but 1/7 seems too low, with the givens. But I haven't fully thought on the math.

I think I need to pause on my thinking about this for tonight.

It's probably not Dylan, probably not Swan, but I l do like throwing out the ideas, in case that helps out someone smarter than me.

ashersky · « **Reply #893 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:21:51 pm »

Quote from: scolapasta on April 30, 2020, 10:15:52 pm

This is me still learning set up, by why not 1/2? Oh wait, is this effectively the Monty Hall problem? except T is much more likely than any other letter. So maybe not 1/2 but 1/7 seems too low, with the givens. But I haven't fully thought on the math.

I think I need to pause on my thinking about this for tonight.

It's probably not Dylan, probably not Swan, but I l do like throwing out the ideas, in case that helps out someone smarter than me.

Everyone knows I suck at probability, and basically don't believe in math. (And definitely not maths, which is ridiculous.)

The setup is TTTTTX, where X can be T.

Also, did MiX townslip? Man, I will be so upset if he did. Or did he fake a townslip? Argh.

ashersky · « **Reply #894 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:23:18 pm »

No, he didn't townslip, phew. Just misremembering my own invention there. Mind saved from being blown.

ashersky · « **Reply #895 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:26:10 pm »

Quote from: MiX on April 30, 2020, 09:08:40 pm

Does it have to be Swan? I was doing yuma.

I guess? But he seems to be the least needed target of an ISO, given all that has been posted about him already. I was looking for new information.

WestCoastDidds · « **Reply #896 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:38:49 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on April 30, 2020, 10:21:51 pm

Everyone knows I suck at probability, and basically don't believe in math. (And definitely not maths, which is ridiculous.)

Ash, what do you do? Are you a word person?

scolapasta · « **Reply #897 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:39:28 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on April 30, 2020, 10:21:51 pm

Quote from: scolapasta on April 30, 2020, 10:15:52 pm
This is me still learning set up, by why not 1/2? Oh wait, is this effectively the Monty Hall problem? except T is much more likely than any other letter. So maybe not 1/2 but 1/7 seems too low, with the givens. But I haven't fully thought on the math.

I think I need to pause on my thinking about this for tonight.

It's probably not Dylan, probably not Swan, but I l do like throwing out the ideas, in case that helps out someone smarter than me.

Everyone knows I suck at probability, and basically don't believe in math. (And definitely not maths, which is ridiculous.)

The setup is TTTTTX, where X can be T.

Also, did MiX townslip? Man, I will be so upset if he did. Or did he fake a townslip? Argh.

OK, just did the math, and yeah 1/7 is right.

I got confused and thinking the 1/7 was coming from T vs B vs C vs D, etc, but T is 50% vs the others.

But the real probability is based on if you know it's 5 or 6 Ts, you know it's one of:
TTTTTx
TTTTxT
TTTxTT
TTxTTT
TxTTTT
xTTTTT
TTTTTT

so 6Ts is 1/7.

Sorry for the slow uptake.

scolapasta · « **Reply #898 on:** April 30, 2020, 10:40:24 pm »

So yeah, that would be very bold/crazy of Dylan to try there.

#backontheDylanICteam

yuma · « **Reply #899 on:** May 01, 2020, 12:06:39 am »

Am I still alive. I really haven't done any rereading or anything cause I thought I would just be dead.

Would people like me to reread and provide opinions or is my credibility just completely shot?

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Author Topic: M126: Game Over, Town Wins! (Read 114435 times)