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[cayvie]

PUBLIC POLL:
Which is more powerful "Mockingjay pin" or "Trident"?   Which one would go earlier in the draft order? Does your answer change now that we know LaLight is high up? Which one is scum most scared of?  If you can answer ANY of these questions then congrats, you're clairvoyant and it probably isn't fair for you to play this game in the first place.

Not *those specific* items, no.

But what about, say, the Rose and the Bow & Arrow? The symbols of the primary antagonist and protagonist of the series in general? Since items appear to be connected to characters that they represent, I think it's reasonable to think that *some* of the items clearly stick out as high picks.

To put it bluntly, shraeye: Don't you think scum would try to kill Katniss if she is town?

[faust]

PUBLIC POLL:
Which is more powerful "Mockingjay pin" or "Trident"?   Which one would go earlier in the draft order? Does your answer change now that we know LaLight is high up? Which one is scum most scared of?  If you can answer ANY of these questions then congrats, you're clairvoyant and it probably isn't fair for you to play this game in the first place.

Well, I'm pretty sure that the Bandages are some kind of Doctor variant and scum want to kill whoever has them.

[scolapasta]

The issue I see with round claiming is that it narrows down who has what. And some of the items seem pretty obvious what they are or at least what type of role it is, i.e. bandages -> doctor.

2nd round people know which items (and how many) were available to first rounders. So knowing who was what round does categorize which X people got which X Items. The smaller X is the more you can determine who had what (and some subset of those X people are possible scum).

That to me seems information that is useful to for the mafia to want to know.

[faust]

And if you're working with the assumption that the items are inherently unknowable, then I also don't see how all this claiming business is supposed to help us.

[faust]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

[scolapasta]

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

[cayvie]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

wait, what

[cayvie]

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

i mean there's a lot of weapons out there, reasonable to assume that there's nightkills aplenty to be protected from

[faust]

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

It means that they can target one player at night and that player is protected from a nightkill.

[MiX]

PUBLIC POLL:
Which is more powerful "Mockingjay pin" or "Trident"?   Which one would go earlier in the draft order? Does your answer change now that we know LaLight is high up? Which one is scum most scared of?  If you can answer ANY of these questions then congrats, you're clairvoyant and it probably isn't fair for you to play this game in the first place.

Not *those specific* items, no.

But what about, say, the Rose and the Bow & Arrow? The symbols of the primary antagonist and protagonist of the series in general? Since items appear to be connected to characters that they represent, I think it's reasonable to think that *some* of the items clearly stick out as high picks.

To put it bluntly, shraeye: Don't you think scum would try to kill Katniss if she is town?

Hmm, I think that there's a high chance scum doesn't know the flavor, because I had no idea items were characters untill, well, I did, and I don't think this is a conclusion that is instantaneous.

The issue I see with round claiming is that it narrows down who has what. And some of the items seem pretty obvious what they are or at least what type of role it is, i.e. bandages -> doctor.

2nd round people know which items (and how many) were available to first rounders. So knowing who was what round does categorize which X people got which X Items. The smaller X is the more you can determine who had what (and some subset of those X people are possible scum).

That to me seems information that is useful to for the mafia to want to know.

1st round usually has the best items...but also not really. People lower in the draft order will naturally pick things that sound worse, and overall scum has no idea what's the most threatning item anyway, so they can only guess at things.

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

Scumslip? Being right about 2 in 13 isn't really enough to be this confident.

PPE ?, that's a lot of posts

[faust]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

Scumslip? Being right about 2 in 13 isn't really enough to be this confident.

It's enough to counter the argument that we don't have to care about the items at all because only a "clairvoyant" could figure out what they do.

Unless, you know, shraeye believes that I am clairvoyant.

[MiX]

PUBLIC POLL:
Which is more powerful "Mockingjay pin" or "Trident"?   Which one would go earlier in the draft order? Does your answer change now that we know LaLight is high up? Which one is scum most scared of?  If you can answer ANY of these questions then congrats, you're clairvoyant and it probably isn't fair for you to play this game in the first place.

Not *those specific* items, no.

But what about, say, the Rose and the Bow & Arrow? The symbols of the primary antagonist and protagonist of the series in general? Since items appear to be connected to characters that they represent, I think it's reasonable to think that *some* of the items clearly stick out as high picks.

To put it bluntly, shraeye: Don't you think scum would try to kill Katniss if she is town?

Hmm, I think that there's a high chance scum doesn't know the flavor, because I had no idea items were characters untill, well, I did, and I don't think this is a conclusion that is instantaneous.

Let's rephrase that in a way that actually gets my point across...

It's likely (no idea how likely) that scum doesn't know the symbolism of each item, which makes that statement help scum. Although they would probably make more research than me.

Also, scum could be Katniss. And Rose doesn't appear to be a powerful item unless you already knew items related to characters, which means the round has nothing to do with it.

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

Scumslip? Being right about 2 in 13 isn't really enough to be this confident.

It's enough to counter the argument that we don't have to care about the items at all because only a "clairvoyant" could figure out what they do.

Unless, you know, shraeye believes that I am clairvoyant.

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

[shraeye]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

Scumslip? Being right about 2 in 13 isn't really enough to be this confident.

It's enough to counter the argument that we don't have to care about the items at all because only a "clairvoyant" could figure out what they do.

Unless, you know, shraeye believes that I am clairvoyant.

for you faust, nothing is impossible. 

[shraeye]

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

But there is not a way for them to guess who picked what.  Like, bandages might mean Doctor.  But would draft order #1 person want Doctor?  Be confident enough that Bandages=Doctor to go for it?  Be confident enough that drafter #2 wouldn't also go for it?

[scolapasta]

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

i mean there's a lot of weapons out there, reasonable to assume that there's nightkills aplenty to be protected from

OK. I've never played a game where anyone but town can be killed at night.

So if any item can be town or scum, I guess I don't see how having the knowledge of who has what really helps the town.
i.e.
Town wants to know who is Mafia. Knowing who the doctor or sheriff is, while useful, doesn't help us much, does it? (I mean if you have a protecting role, you don't even know if you'd want to protect someone based on just role alone)
Meanwhile. mafia do get useful info (albeit obfuscated) about which town person is which role.

So round claiming, to me, definitely seems to help mafia more.

[scolapasta]

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

It means that they can target one player at night and that player is protected from a nightkill.

Yes, that's the definition of doctor. I'm not *that* new. I just have never played with a mafia doctor.

[scolapasta]

SO in the mafia that you guys play are there any roles that are always Mafia or always town? Is it safe, then, for us to assume (or at least it's likely) that none of the items represent those roles? Because, how would that work?

(i.e same question as before, just that Doctior apparently was not a good example)

[MiX]

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

But there is not a way for them to guess who picked what.  Like, bandages might mean Doctor.  But would draft order #1 person want Doctor?  Be confident enough that Bandages=Doctor to go for it?  Be confident enough that drafter #2 wouldn't also go for it?

Wait, are you arguing to reveal draft order? I know exactly what every #1 would pick, and thus #2 wouldn't. Yes, I'm wrong, but you can induce this based on your own thought process when you were drafting.

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

i mean there's a lot of weapons out there, reasonable to assume that there's nightkills aplenty to be protected from

OK. I've never played a game where anyone but town can be killed at night.

So if any item can be town or scum, I guess I don't see how having the knowledge of who has what really helps the town.
i.e.
Town wants to know who is Mafia. Knowing who the doctor or sheriff is, while useful, doesn't help us much, does it? (I mean if you have a protecting role, you don't even know if you'd want to protect someone based on just role alone)
Meanwhile. mafia do get useful info (albeit obfuscated) about which town person is which role.

So round claiming, to me, definitely seems to help mafia more.

Round claiming just means if you got what you first drafted for. Given how random getting the first draft is, it seems more noise than useful information for scum.

SO in the mafia that you guys play are there any roles that are always Mafia or always town? Is it safe, then, for us to assume (or at least it's likely) that none of the items represent those roles? Because, how would that work?

(i.e same question as before, just that Doctior apparently was not a good example)

Godfather would be really weird here, but could have a different effect if whoever got it was town.

[mail-mi]

All of this stuff about item powers are also contingent on the individual choosing the item. For example, I would figure that Shraeye would value an item related to killing more than others would value said item.

All this being said, I think I'm starting to go back on my "round claiming is useful" idea because I'm being convinced, and as I thought about good reasons for it, I couldn't come up with much.

However, we've already started. Would it be more useful for us or for scum to finish it out? I feel like half-information gives us less benefit while giving scum the same amount of benefit of a full claim.

[mail-mi]

Also, pretty sure shraeye is town.

[WestCoastDidds]

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

But there is not a way for them to guess who picked what.  Like, bandages might mean Doctor.  But would draft order #1 person want Doctor?  Be confident enough that Bandages=Doctor to go for it?  Be confident enough that drafter #2 wouldn't also go for it?

I think this is a really important point. We can't assume that someone drafting early would draft the "best" things, especially knowing that if their paired person also picks it, then neither get it. 

[scolapasta]

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

But there is not a way for them to guess who picked what.  Like, bandages might mean Doctor.  But would draft order #1 person want Doctor?  Be confident enough that Bandages=Doctor to go for it?  Be confident enough that drafter #2 wouldn't also go for it?

Wait, are you arguing to reveal draft order? I know exactly what every #1 would pick, and thus #2 wouldn't. Yes, I'm wrong, but you can induce this based on your own thought process when you were drafting.

He did earlier (I was surprised at this):

And I'm 2r.  But honestly, round STILL isn't the most important piece of info.

What we REALLY need to know is everybody's draft order.  I was #13.

Question: let's assume bandages is in fact Doctor? Could a Mafia person have picked this and if so, what does it mean for them to be Doctor?

i mean there's a lot of weapons out there, reasonable to assume that there's nightkills aplenty to be protected from

OK. I've never played a game where anyone but town can be killed at night.

So if any item can be town or scum, I guess I don't see how having the knowledge of who has what really helps the town.
i.e.
Town wants to know who is Mafia. Knowing who the doctor or sheriff is, while useful, doesn't help us much, does it? (I mean if you have a protecting role, you don't even know if you'd want to protect someone based on just role alone)
Meanwhile. mafia do get useful info (albeit obfuscated) about which town person is which role.

So round claiming, to me, definitely seems to help mafia more.

Round claiming just means if you got what you first drafted for. Given how random getting the first draft is, it seems more noise than useful information for scum.

But you also know the subset of items those people got.

Hypothetical: 6 first rounders, 2 are scum. SO Mafia know nows 4 people are 4 items they got. If bandages was a 1st round item, then you've narrowed the doctor down to one of 4 people.

[MiX]

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

But there is not a way for them to guess who picked what.  Like, bandages might mean Doctor.  But would draft order #1 person want Doctor?  Be confident enough that Bandages=Doctor to go for it?  Be confident enough that drafter #2 wouldn't also go for it?

I think this is a really important point. We can't assume that someone drafting early would draft the "best" things, especially knowing that if their paired person also picks it, then neither get it.

Why would you deliberately pick someone you think #1 would? It helps no one.

But you also know the subset of items those people got.

Hypothetical: 6 first rounders, 2 are scum. SO Mafia know nows 4 people are 4 items they got. If bandages was a 1st round item, then you've narrowed the doctor down to one of 4 people.

There's 9 first round claims. The low amount of second round claims is why this is a good idea, there's just way too many people that could have "the best item".

[faust]

Correct, I suppose. Also shraeye believes everyone is clairvoyant, I'm sure everyone can answer if the answers to the other questions change knowing LaLight's high in the draft order (and the answer's no). Nitpicking aside, faust's right, there's a way to induce what the items could be, and scum even have better odds of doing so by having more examples.

But there is not a way for them to guess who picked what.  Like, bandages might mean Doctor.  But would draft order #1 person want Doctor?  Be confident enough that Bandages=Doctor to go for it?  Be confident enough that drafter #2 wouldn't also go for it?

I think this is a really important point. We can't assume that someone drafting early would draft the "best" things, especially knowing that if their paired person also picks it, then neither get it.

I don't think that comes into play at all. If i have a high draft, I go for the item I want the most. If I don't get it, well then there's another round where I can definitely get the best thing that remains. But why should I settle for a suboptimal choice from the start?

[scolapasta]

But you also know the subset of items those people got.

Hypothetical: 6 first rounders, 2 are scum. SO Mafia know nows 4 people are 4 items they got. If bandages was a 1st round item, then you've narrowed the doctor down to one of 4 people.

There's 9 first round claims. The low amount of second round claims is why this is a good idea, there's just way too many people that could have "the best item".

I agree the more first rounders, the more noise. But there's some info in there (that eventually could become even more useful), while I continue to see no tangible benefit to town.