Whats more impressive is no one is trying crazy hard to push it and EFHW is at L2
Sound like you're jealous...
I think you are mistaken jealousy for curiosity on this one.
What is curious about it?
Does it make EFHW more or less likely scum in your opinion?
evidently my sarcasm is going under noted. apologies as needed I guess.
1) I was bantering with faust. There is nothing curious about it, I was talking about my state of mind.
2) regarding EFHW... I don't know. Less I think. If we are under the assumption that skum directed the misdirect of Cayvie's kill then they chose mix. Given Day 1 info, mix would be a good choice if the idea was to iso the wagons to let's say... the other potential wagons on the day. Outside of that, there isn't really a reason for skum to do it right? I mean mix derailed at a crucial time and they could of just left them alive and painted them up. But, in this scenario, they chose to move the shot to MiX. So who would they hope to set up? Probably EFHW and a back up of galz as he popped up on radar a shit ton of times from people. and look at that... its EFHW and Galz. I accept the reach of all of that, so the merit I am putting into it at this point is smallish.
This is my hold up. The first person that gives me shit about "mathing it out like skum" is getting tunneled for as long as I am in the game. It is simply the only way to think about this. But ok here - Assume you are skum and you have a bus driver/RD/whatever... cayvie claims vig shot... you are bus driver and get lucky on the target? k maybe. As I stated before, I think more likely RD knowing who to target and controlling where to put it. Either way... you have to move the action. So you are skum, so assume cayvie is town. So when cayvie only voted for the wagons of mix and pubby and uncle you have to assume she actually had some merit in believing they were skum. So when she shoots, those are good targets. So you choose... like a town *not one of those $%#$ing dudes"right? except that is not what happened. MiX got "shot and killed". So if cayvie has confirmed that they get the "shot" ping on their shots, and cayvie is assumed town in this scenario then... skum just what? decided to pick a target that may of very well been the target that cayvie chose anyways?
That was rambling - I have been wanting to get these points out:
1) It is in fact probably more likely that there is a bus driver in regards to an RD. But it has nothing to do with skum controlling the shot. If skum controlled the shot it is far more likely imo that it is a RD. Overall, still bus driver is ultimately more likely because it could just be a random town switch (ofc on top of the option of skum having BD as well). I do not like the way that people have presented the cases thus far without taking that merit into respect.
2) Cayvie said the shot landed, EFHW did not get a notification. So either Cayvie is lying, EFHW is lying, or it was switched.... or I guess they are both lying. Simple as that.
If it was switched = Skum either is RD and picks claimed vig and puts it on someone they know is not skum (MiX) or they are bus driver and pick two high wagon individuals to switch the results on (EFHW/MiX).
If Cayvie is lying = they just shot mix. Then claimed efhw to bring on the hate and etc etc. I am not a huge fan of this one, but it is on the table.
EFHW is lying = yadda yadda skum has the switch ability and EFHW would know so it was planned. OK, roughly the same fan of that as the cayvie case.
Both are lying = oddly I find this more likely than any singular of them being skum.
TLDR; I think EFHW is Town. I do not think that Skum would of switched the result off of EFHW (whether RD or BD) and then it all plays out the way that it has, if EFHW was in on that decision.