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[SpaceAnemone]

If that's really true, then why did Bright then not even remember to (or mention that he was going to) constrain the game states he was considering to contain at least on vig?

Because what's factual for me isn't factual for you. But yeah, it's bad.

You are literally claiming to be a vig and yet you've been making up stats about how many of what faction to include without insisting there's a vig there. So that's a fact I shouldn't even have to take into account, but one that is genuinely meant to be a fact for you. What's more, it's a fact you claimed earlier, but seem not to be incorporating in the follow-up reasoning you present to the thread. That's why I feel it looks particularly bad.

(Skipping over one bit if your quote temporarily)

Alternatively, if he thought I was remembering about the vig thing, why wasn't he calling me on that yesterday?

When was this? Are we talking about Day 2 or Nov 25?

I meant yesterday as in the IRL-day-before, when I'd been querying your stats based on the fact that you appeared to have completely forgotten to update the possible game states based on the fact that:
A) You now claim that you knew there had to be a one-shot vig, but were not assuming non-vig-containing game states were impossible.
B) You weren't even ensuring that there were enough players of the various factions to cover all the N1 kills observed, in spite of the fact you claim that you caused one of them.

I feel that there's enough weirdness here, and enough lack of clarity in the responses, that it deserves a Vote: Bright.

[WestCoastDidds]

We have 37 hours until deadline.

I don’t think a no lynch helps us. But I’m not sure how much I’ll be around tomorrow.

I’m not against the bright vote but for the cryptic mail-mi comment which is enough to wait and see. So,

Vote: Space (L-2)

[SpaceAnemone]

I mean, it's possible there's an SK and no real mafia faction, but that seems incredibly unlikely.

Where have you been? I think everyone here has suspected a SK since Night 1.
Doubt only comes in when you suspect faust was lying about their faction not using their kill on Night 1. I'm inclined to believe that they didn't, seeing as they had(have?) a single kill for the whole game, and multiple players that can ensure it will be used. Plenty of time to figure out who to use it on.

Sounds like I've been misremembering, which isn't too unlikely given that I lost engagement a little at the start of D2 just through being busy, and now I'm rather unwell and kind of fuzzy-brained. That makes me rather more autistic than normal, in a detail-oriented sense, but also rather less able to remember good levels of detail. My work day pretty much sucks!

Anyway, I thought we had one claimed vig one-shot (you), one kill from the Alien faction, one from the WW, and then a presumed fourth from Mafia.

If your own numbers, even if you're ensuring at least one vig being present, are also now indicating a high likelihood of there being an SK, then either one of the major expected scum factions didn't shoot after all, or something saved us from a fifth expected kill, if there was an SK shot in the mix.

I'm perfect able to accept any of those things as an explanation, but I do still find it strange that you, who have presumably had to think through this in detail in order to code up your sampler, hadn't felt driven to mention any of the oddities or weird scenarios that that reading of the data implied.

[Joseph2302]

I think Vote: bright is much better, based on Space's posts above

I don't think Space and bright are on the same team. But they could both be non-town

[LaLight]

I think Vote: bright is much better, based on Space's posts above

I don't think Space and bright are on the same team. But they could both be non-town

Then why do you vote one and not another? You have some extra info on which teams they are?

[WestCoastDidds]

I think Vote: bright is much better, based on Space's posts above

I don't think Space and bright are on the same team. But they could both be non-town

I agree with that assessment. What about mail-mi I saying not bright? (Too hard to find it on my phone)

[WestCoastDidds]

I don’t think we should be voting for bright right now. I have reasons to believe that he is town. (I’m not 100% sure, but you know).

Meanwhile, I’ll join the vote: space wagon right now. Not a final vote but a good place for now.

Here it is

[Brightgalrs]

You are literally claiming to be a vig and yet you've been making up stats about how many of what faction to include without insisting there's a vig there.

I'm confused by what you mean. My initial analyses rejected games only based on alignment, and the final output was by alignment. Under that paradigm, the only way the knowledge I'm a vig came into play is when I assumed 3 kills = 3 scum rather than 4 kills = 4 scum. It's obvious why I didn't assume the later.

Keep in mind, there's a bunch of other stuff I could've done with individual roles, like rejecting all simulated games with a Mafia Reflexive Doctor (discarded by Archetype in our game) or rejecting all games without a Town Day Vigilante (jotheonah's role in our game). But the number of games that pass the filter drop quickly if I do stuff like that, and I'd then have to up the number of simulations to millions.

Also I could've just said nothing, it's been more than a week since I first posted numbers.

Space, Joseph, your votes mean nothing. Mail-mi would claim before I'm lynched. And you both know this, so again, this is all a transparent attempt to get him to claim before the day ends.

[Brightgalrs]

Prod request: Galzria

[A Drowned Kernel]

Prod request: Galzria

Sent

[Eevee]

Space is making the sense.

Vote: Bright I can't believe I'm voting for a scumslip!

[Brightgalrs]

Space is making the sense.

Vote: Bright I can't believe I'm voting for a scumslip!

Lines are certainly being drawn here.

And it's not a scumslip if I volunteered the information! All of Space's suspicion leans entirely on mistakes I owned up to without prompting!

[Joseph2302]

I think Vote: bright is much better, based on Space's posts above

I don't think Space and bright are on the same team. But they could both be non-town

Then why do you vote one and not another? You have some extra info on which teams they are?

No extra info. But if one of them is town, I think Space is townier

[mail-mi]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum. He just has a slightly higher chance of being town.

I agree with Joseph's assessment that bright and space are not on the same team.

[WestCoastDidds]

Hmmm...I was assuming Mail-mi’s info was more solid. I’d rather be voting for him, but need a vote count. Anyone know where we’re at?

[Brightgalrs]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum.

Good.

[mail-mi]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum. He just has a slightly higher chance of being town.

I agree with Joseph's assessment that bright and space are not on the same team.

^^this is also why I'm voting space instead of bright

[EFHW]

I think Bright has the highest chance of being scum.  Owning up to a scumslip is NAI.

[shraeye]

Who owned up to a scumslip? 

Why/when was sudgy lying?

I feel like I'm not in the same page as all those last posts

[WestCoastDidds]

Okay, vote: Bright I think that puts him at L-2, but I’m not certain

[Galzria]

Sorry all, surprisingly less time on a “week off” than I thought I would have - Yes, some of it is me being lazy, but much of it is just more happening than I accounted for.

Let’s get the important bit out there now:
I received no Result last night - this indicates a RB of some kind... I believe.

As for my preference, if any, I super pinky promise to post tomorrow (today, est T-9ish hours). I’m definitely DAMA (except I won’t answer) after a night out celebrating a friends 28th, so I’m gonna go find my pillow.

[Joseph2302]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum. He just has a slightly higher chance of being town.

I agree with Joseph's assessment that bright and space are not on the same team.

^^this is also why I'm voting space instead of bright

From my perspective, the scumslip is more evidence than this though, which is why I'm voting bright

[Joseph2302]

I'm around for 5 hours then off drinking all night. Will switch to Space if I have to in order to get a lynch

My thoughts on lynch preference are bright > Space > no lynch >> me

[pubby]

vote: space

[shraeye]

My information in no means confirms Bright isn't scum. And I will not be claiming before he gets lynched if that is the case because he still might be scum. He just has a slightly higher chance of being town.

I agree with Joseph's assessment that bright and space are not on the same team.

^^this is also why I'm voting space instead of bright

From my perspective, the scumslip is more evidence than this though, which is why I'm voting bright

Can you explain the "scumslip"? I'm either not getting it or not remembering it.