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[SpaceAnemone]

Has anyone so far tried to quantify the expected number of other PRs and scum factions out there? Even just crudely using some kind of heuristic for the discarding step?

[Brightgalrs]

Has anyone so far tried to quantify the expected number of other PRs and scum factions out there? Even just crudely using some kind of heuristic for the discarding step?

Yes but it's all on my desktop which I won't be infront of until tommorow. And I need to do a little more work on it, and I need to check my work.
But I think Faust's analysis is something to go on:

Important statistics that are never wrong:

We have 11 Townies, 4 Werewolves, 4 Mafia, 2 Aliens and 2 third parties.

Except that we have at least 12 townies.

[2.71828.....]

Has anyone so far tried to quantify the expected number of other PRs and scum factions out there? Even just crudely using some kind of heuristic for the discarding step?

Yes but it's all on my desktop which I won't be infront of until tommorow. And I need to do a little more work on it, and I need to check my work.
But I think Faust's analysis is something to go on:

Important statistics that are never wrong:

We have 11 Townies, 4 Werewolves, 4 Mafia, 2 Aliens and 2 third parties.

Except that we have at least 12 townies.

Except this game doesn't have to be fair.

19 townies, 2 mafia, 1 werewolf, 1 cultist (were they even in the setup?)

[Brightgalrs]

Except this game doesn't have to be fair.

19 townies, 2 mafia, 1 werewolf, 1 cultist (were they even in the setup?)

We're talking about the expected number of each role, a probability concept. There's like billions of ways this game could be set up, still millions if you only consider alignment. Looking at the expected value is better than nothing.

It looks like Faust took the proportions of each alignment in the full list and multiplied it out over 46, the roles we all picked from.
So there are 84/146 town roles multiply that by 46 gives 26.4 expected town roles. 16 were discarded, leaving 10 or 11 expected townies in this game. Do that for each alignment to get their expected value.
I'm pretty sure this is a correct interpretation. But factoring in that some roles are better than others might change the expected numbers around, making them more accurate. And that's what I've been working on, still a work in progress.

[jotheonah]

Look at that, sudgy posted and STILL hasn’t fullclaimed his role. Lynch the scum.

[MiX]

Look at that, sudgy posted and STILL hasn’t fullclaimed his role. Lynch the scum.

Desperate much? You do realize that...you know what I'm just gonna quote another post I made, I'm going in circles.

Sudgy still hasn’t said which miller he is. Which is further evidence that he’s not a miller (since he risks a counterclaim if he specifies)

Except we all know that if you don't specify it's a normal miller. Ain't that right sudgy?

Also you're scumscumscumscumscumscumscumscumscumscum.

[jotheonah]

If that’s the case, he can confirm it.

[jotheonah]

Also, let’s just call attention to the manner in which MiX is both coaching and defending sudgy. Something to remember for tomorrow.

[MiX]

Also, let’s just call attention to the manner in which MiX is both coaching and defending sudgy. Something to remember for tomorrow.

Oh so he's your mafia buddy?

[jotheonah]

I find myself once again insulted by how bad people think I am at being scum.

[MiX]

I find myself once again insulted by how bad people think I am at being scum.

And yet we're supposed to expect you're bad at being town?

I mean, yes, you are.

Screw this, you win.

Get your D3 self into D2 and we got a deal.

Vote: sudgy because you can't show me results today.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Bright, I don't think you ever responded to WCD's question here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you're somewhere on the math/eng/logic side of things? :-)

Last personal question, Bright....what area of study in grad school? Partly I’m curious, and partly because we have some word/journalism/Comm people and some math/eng/logic people and it helps understand them. And of course lots that are neither/both, but oddly we know their work schedules...

Also, would you mind adding an avatar pic (just something visually distinct from the other players), and also some kind of searchable text to make it easier for people to read you in isolation without having to go to your user page and in so doing, losing the rest of the context in the thread? Either a "Shuffle iT Username", or a short unique text string that's unlikely to come up in the flow of the thread? Thank you!

[SpaceAnemone]

Space Count

jotheonah (6): faust, mail-mi, sudgy, Joseph2302, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone
sudgy (10): 2.71828....., Glooble, jotheonah, pubby, WestCoastDidds, Eevee, Galzria, EFHW, LaLight, MiX
faust (1): Uncleeurope
LaLight (1): raerae
Not Voting (4): pingpongsam, Shraeye, Archetype, Brightgalrs

So MiX's vote was L-2.

Oh, and Request prod on PPS. I had to update my vote-counting script so it didn't throw an error at encountering someone with zero game posts while trying to count how many posts each player makes for my summary stats at the end!

[MiX]

Vote: pps

[pingpongsam]

Vote: Joth

I discarded one shot unlynchable because it’s the one town role that looks scummy as shit in my hands.

[MiX]

Vote: Joth

I discarded one shot unlynchable because it’s the one town role that looks scummy as shit in my hands.

What does that mean?

Vote: joth

[pingpongsam]

The case has probably been made but I skimmed this blowed up thread thanks to 23 players. If I am Mafia Dayvig my options are to hope I make it to the end of an extremely long game to force a win or get it out of the way early. Since I can communicate with my partners this an easy setup, in fact, I might even get said partners to pile on my wagon to get there sooner. So scum points to early Joth wagon.

As a twin dayvig my best play is to stay alive and get an informative wagon on me and play scummy af to make it as town loaded as possible and prior to getting fully lynched take a shot at my scummiest off wagon read.

[pingpongsam]

Look I didn’t study the rolelist but me survive a lynch will appear to be anything but town. Say mafia governor or something. Me staying alive is not going to help town.

[Brightgalrs]

@Bright, I don't think you ever responded to WCD's question here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you're somewhere on the math/eng/logic side of things? :-)

Last personal question, Bright....what area of study in grad school? Partly I’m curious, and partly because we have some word/journalism/Comm people and some math/eng/logic people and it helps understand them. And of course lots that are neither/both, but oddly we know their work schedules...

You're right I missed that. I got my bachelors in industrial engineering but "switched" to computational linguistics for master's. So yeah, math, computers, and engineering, but also softer stuff like syntax and semantics.

Also, would you mind adding an avatar pic (just something visually distinct from the other players), and also some kind of searchable text to make it easier for people to read you in isolation without having to go to your user page and in so doing, losing the rest of the context in the thread? Either a "Shuffle iT Username", or a short unique text string that's unlikely to come up in the flow of the thread? Thank you!

Yeah I can do that.

[faust]

Look I didn’t study the rolelist but me survive a lynch will appear to be anything but town. Say mafia governor or something. Me staying alive is not going to help town.

I agree that Lynchproof is a negative utility role most of the time.

[MiX]

Look I didn’t study the rolelist but me survive a lynch will appear to be anything but town. Say mafia governor or something. Me staying alive is not going to help town.

I agree that Lynchproof is a negative utility role most of the time.

Not with a flipped scum unlynchable which makes the other unlynchable mafia or town, which means a cop can find out their alignment. But that wasn't public.

[WestCoastDidds]

@Bright, I don't think you ever responded to WCD's question here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you're somewhere on the math/eng/logic side of things? :-)

An excellent guess, Space!  Ha!

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 1.5

jothenoah (9): faust, mail-mi, sudgy, Joseph2302, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, Brightgalrs, pingpongsam, MiX
faust (1): Uncleeurope
sudgy (9): e, Brightgalrs, Glooble, jotheonah, pubby, WestCoastDidds, Eevee, Galzria, EFHW, LaLight
Lalight (1): raerae

Not Voting (2): shraeye, Archetype

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to lynch. Day One ends at 6:00 UTC, 11/22/19.

[Galzria]

vote: Joth

L-2

[SpaceAnemone]

You're right I missed that. I got my bachelors in industrial engineering but "switched" to computational linguistics for master's. So yeah, math, computers, and engineering, but also softer stuff like syntax and semantics.

Cool! I'm more on the image analysis & machine learning end of the computer & engineering melting pot.

Also, would you mind adding an avatar pic (just something visually distinct from the other players), and also some kind of searchable text to make it easier for people to read you in isolation without having to go to your user page and in so doing, losing the rest of the context in the thread? Either a "Shuffle iT Username", or a short unique text string that's unlikely to come up in the flow of the thread? Thank you!

Yeah I can do that.

Thank you! I like your blueish square :-) Does Pubby appreciate your unique text?