Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Swowl]

OK. Events by Timeline:

Joseph claims Neo Cop, claiming to target Joth and getting a not VT result.
Joth claims JK.
Joth then says they targeted ADK night 1 and Swan night 2.
We then had no Night Kill happen.


So what are the possible things that could be happening:

1) They could both be telling the truth - Joseph got the Neo shot, used it on Joth. Joth JKd Swan. Skum tried to kill Swan.

2) Joseph is skum, Joth is JK - Skum was informed that the Neo shot (or anything really) was to be assigned, but they got the info instead. Joseph claims on Joth, and just happens to accidentally pick the player that is actually the JK.

3) Joseph is town, Joth is skum - Joseph got the neo shot ability, used it on Joth. Joth claims JK as skum hoping to out the real JK in the process.

4) They are both skum - Skum gets the info of the power. Joseph claims neo on Joth. They duke it out hoping to pull out the JK. The JK assumedly claims, we lynch Joth, Joseph gets town points X 1000. If JK doesn't claim, it still works. No matter who is lynched, the other person looks good.


---1) I think this is very unlikely. It is mainly based on just pure chance of shit happening, but I mean that is just like the stars aligning.

---2) This could be a thing. Skum gets the info of the power, picks a player that they think is safe (Joth would be prime as they are the only player alive that would of had any reason at all to claim JK at any point), but then it backfires. It also has the added benefit for skum of potentially having a quick JK claim come out. Like Joseph says Joth is not VT, then JK comes out and says "then they are for sure skum, because I am the JK".

---3) This could also be a thing. Joseph gets the shot, uses it, hits skum... skum acts accordingly.

---4) This is like #1 in far off worldness... but should not be ignored. At this stage, especially after the kill was blocked, skum could be worried the JK block will be an issue as the field lessens. This set up would ensure one skum will get lynched, but it also gives a pretty good chance that the real JK comes out and then they have that player at night.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Joth could also have been the kill in scenario 1, since JK is bulletproof

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

No. That is IC v ic . Don't think we want that.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

No. That is IC v ic . Don't think we want that.

So you have a toe out of the yes camp, at least

[EFHW]

Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try.

Could Joseph be scum fakeclaiming?  This would be risky, even if they had a great intuition that joth was jk.

Could joth be fake confirming and Joseph be fake claiming? That risks joth being counterclaimed. Unwise.

There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.

[mcmcsalot]

snipped

Soo did you not read my post where I said basically everything you did except with less words and more accuracy...

First off scum new the nk was blocked before any claims. Secondly without any counter claim to joth he has to be town so your scenario’s 3 and 4 are basically pointless. Thirdly as adk and I have pointed out it’s very unlikely scum!joseph makes this claim on town joth as they don’t know if joth is actually jk or jk’s target. You also skipped the part of scenario 1 where you could have performed the nk.

This is really scummy

[mcmcsalot]

Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try.

Could Joseph be scum fakeclaiming?  This would be risky, even if they had a great intuition that joth was jk.

Could joth be fake confirming and Joseph be fake claiming? That risks joth being counterclaimed. Unwise.

There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.

Same things as I said to datswan, did you just not read the last few pages or are you “thinking out loud” because you think it looks towny?

Yes joesph could be fake claiming but it’s super risky because of the world where we lynch by joth and then scum joseph.

Joth can’t be fake confirming because No one is counter claiming joth.

[mcmcsalot]

Oh and as always I don’t think it’s good for us to be discussing how we “should vote on the duel”

We can speculate all we want but once the duel is proposed we should all weigh the growing strength of a potential pr against the fact that a duel containing an ic is a lynch vote for the other player.

[mcmcsalot]

Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.

So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts.  I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.

Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?

no. take the plurality vote away from skum and just vote joseph.

[Swowl]

I 100% believe Joth. I think he is both the JK and did what he said he did.

I could see how Joseph could be town, but I doubt that both of Joth/Joseph are Town. And I hard lean Joseph on that pick.

Not discussing the duel selection this time around is stupid. We should discuss it. The answer should be no duel (unless it is Joseph or Joth I suppose, maybe). We have a claim and a re claim. There is no counter claim. That shit just doesn't happen. If there is the real jk sitting tight that is cool, they should imo... but the whole scenario added up just ends up in the scenario of "one of them is skum" sooooooo often.

Joth would not of said they protected me if they were skum. They would of picked someone that was not defending them then put a case on people that were defending them saying they were white knighting or whatever. OTOH I totally believe that town!Joth would proc me here as jk.


It is too late today for this to matter but tomorrow we need to consider taking the clear cut view of skum (wanting to go to the duel) away from them. Today is a perfect example of how little the value of the potential PR actually is.

[Debatepro]

Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try....There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.

Same things as I said to datswan, did you just not read the last few pages or are you “thinking out loud” because you think it looks towny?
Yes joesph could be fake claiming but it’s super risky because of the world where we lynch by joth and then scum joseph. Joth can’t be fake confirming because No one is counter claiming joth.

snipped

Soo did you not read my post where I said basically everything you did except with less words and more accuracy... (debatepro clipping to save space) This is really scummy

Now that you seem to be all caught up, and given the tenor of the quoted posts above,  can you provide us your reads on ADK, Aweclus, and Robz? Excluding Joth and Joseph, they are the three remaining players who voted for Pubby, MiX, and Glooble (977)

[EFHW]

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

[Joseph2302]

I 100% believe Joth. I think he is both the JK and did what he said he did.

I could see how Joseph could be town, but I doubt that both of Joth/Joseph are Town. And I hard lean Joseph on that pick.

Not discussing the duel selection this time around is stupid. We should discuss it. The answer should be no duel (unless it is Joseph or Joth I suppose, maybe). We have a claim and a re claim. There is no counter claim. That shit just doesn't happen. If there is the real jk sitting tight that is cool, they should imo... but the whole scenario added up just ends up in the scenario of "one of them is skum" sooooooo often.

Joth would not of said they protected me if they were skum. They would of picked someone that was not defending them then put a case on people that were defending them saying they were white knighting or whatever. OTOH I totally believe that town!Joth would proc me here as jk.


It is too late today for this to matter but tomorrow we need to consider taking the clear cut view of skum (wanting to go to the duel) away from them. Today is a perfect example of how little the value of the potential PR actually is.

Vote: Datswan
Me and joth not being town/town is the biggest rubbish I've heard all game

[Joseph2302]

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....

[EFHW]

It seems strange to me that e wants to shut down duel discussion.

But I also don't think that discussion has been very productive so far. It seems like some people want to establish a kind of consensus going in. There are a number of problems with that.

1. We'll never have the same reads.
2. Each town member making their own best decision is much more effective than some town members being influenced by others.
3. People are assuming we have 2 ICs when we don't really.

[EFHW]

Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk.  Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.

If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....

What is the terrible position? Maybe they think they would lose a 1:1 vs joth, and then town  loses our jk.

[2.71828.....]

It seems strange to me that e wants to shut down duel discussion.

Where did I say that?

[2.71828.....]

We also need to talk about dueling at some point. I feel like we have enough information for a good lynch without a duel.

But I also think another PR would be very useful. While we regrettable outed our JK, the way it happened basically have us an IC in the process. Which is nice.

Are you thinking of someone else?

[EFHW]

It seems strange to me that e mcmc wants to shut down duel discussion.

FTFM, sorry e.

[EFHW]

It seems strange to me that e mcmc wants to shut down duel discussion.

FTFM, sorry e.

I do object to a lot of the things you are saying,  but that one wasn't you.

[mcmcsalot]

As I said the idea that joseph is scum is a conspiracy theory and one with flaws.

If joesph is scum he received the pr knowledge and he knows the nk target. Knowing the nk target does nothing because if he shot joth he doesn’t know if joth is the jk or vt protected by jk or if he himself was jailkept.

Once scum!joseph makes the claim he locks himself into a few scenarios:

A) Joth is the jk: this works out great, scum gets confirmation they shot at the jk and joseph gets treated as pseudo ic.

B) Joth is a vt: this is where things go bad for scum. Because in this scenario the jk doesn’t know if he blocked a kill through protection or targeting. We lynch joth and then lynch joseph when joth flips vt.

So joth is town because no one is counter claiming and joseph is probably town because if he’s scum he took a huge risk guessing that joth is the jk. The downside would be trading 1 for 1 with a vt.

Also remember the best case scenario is that joth get outed as the jk (but in this scenario joseph already guessed joth was the jk) so town gets an ic and joseph gets some towncred. But joseph could have just done any other gambit with the town pr info, or saved the reveal for later.

If scum got the pr last night I doubt they open the day with claiming what they did with it.

[mcmcsalot]

Now that you seem to be all caught up, and given the tenor of the quoted posts above,  can you provide us your reads on ADK, Aweclus, and Robz? Excluding Joth and Joseph, they are the three remaining players who voted for Pubby, MiX, and Glooble (977)

I don’t think it’s a super good idea to give blanket reads prior to the duel. I have no intention to start a case on either of those three players at this point and I should reread awaclus.

I will say I disagree strongly with E’s comments on:

Joth and Joseph are town. I think it's okay to vote for a duel that includes one of them as long as the other person is someone we are okay lynching (to get the PR). If the duel is the two of them, then no.

If the duel is like, Joseph vs ADK or E, I might be fine with it.

I could easily see Swan being scum who does the kill, but I could ALSO see him as the NK, since it wouldn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game much and the dynamics of the game (until this series of claims at least) was decent for scum.

I could easily see this post coming from scum!Robz

Basically dining up everything everyone has said and starting a few other obvious things. Plus the obvious OMGUS perspective of me being in his top 2 scum reads.

I can join team vote: Robz

As opposed the datswan and efhw who I do think scumarized the discussions in somewhat leading posts. Datswan laid out a bunch of scenarios and over explained things to a point where it seems like he’s doing lost but he was just repeating what had been said and was also incorrect/incomplete with a decent amount of his analysis. Efhw did the scummy “ask a bunch of leading questions to look like I’m curiously pro town” but not adding any of her own insight. Robs here is actually just stating his own feeling quite susinctly. It’s not a post that’s trying to look towny it’s just relaying his own thoughts.

Town is more likely to just say “I think X” with no tie in. Scum says “I kinda think X, or boy Y is a possibility, what do we all think?”.

[Robz888]

Re the above, yes DatSwan has done that, but he always does that, right?