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[2.71828.....]

Swan could also have been the NK target. I basically have been using my power as more of a doctor for the early game for mathy reasons.

Basically, with no other PRs in play, a major downside of jailkeeping townreads goes away.

If you JK scum, EVEN IF YOU’RE RIGHT, it has a 2/3 chance of not doing anything. Whereas if you JK town, all you have to do is correctly ID the nightkill, which seemed a lot easier. And the upside is that if your townread IS scum they’re probably among the best hidden scum and therefore the most likely to be doing the kill. The downside is you get less info from targeting townreads in a way.

So yeah. Swan is either scum or scum targeted him (or they targeted me). ADK is either town or scum who didn’t happen to do the kill.

And then there is this as well.

[Joseph2302]

Important: if joth isn't the JK, can the real JK please come out? Otherwise we're going to assume that joth is town

[Uncleeurope]

Yeah, interesting situation.

The person I actually trust the most in this situation is Joseph. Scum don't actually get to use the PR, and to out the JK as scum just doesn't happen here.

But then for joth we need to wait for everyone to show up, and with no counter claim then I trust him as well.

Which then points suspicion to Datswan with the missing NK.

I don’t like this post. Am I biased in that I am reading every e post as bad? Yes. Does that make e good? No.

[jotheonah]

Wait a minute...

Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...

[A Drowned Kernel]

I’m honestly kind of lost right now.

Vote for robz

What are your thoughts on:
1. Duel result, voters for Glooble, abstainers
2. Absence of a NK
3. Joseph’s claim and result

Who are the players on your list as potential scum?

1. My reads on glooble (and I'm now guessing joth) were way off, I'm thinking scum is either entirely or largely in the glooble votes and abstainers
2. Caused by the JK, and pointless and dangerous to talk about in the absence of a JK claim (which we now have, and can now talk about)
3. I believe joth's claim in the absence of a counterclaim, joth being the kill seems like to most likely explanation for the no kill right now but I'll have to reread datswan

Joseph is an IC if joth is really the JK (scum would have had to completely guess on that result, which they definitely don't do) and probably town if joth is scum (this would be an odd gambit if they were partners). You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK). Awaclus looks a lot scummier if he doesn't counterclaim because my read on him was based on my belief that he was breadcrumbing being the JK. Those are probably my strongest reads, everyone else is up for grabs.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Wait a minute...

Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...

If silver is following the mafia wiki role, neapolitan gets a result of (VT/not VT). Vanilla cop is the role you're thinking of

[Joseph2302]

Wait a minute...

Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...

Yes because it tells you whether they are Vanilla Townie or not

As described on Mafia scum

ppe: 1

[Debatepro]

...You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK).

What was the townslip you identified?

[A Drowned Kernel]

...You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK).

What was the townslip you identified?

You speculated that scum might have killed mix because they thought he was the JK. But the JK is bulletproof, scum is going to avoid hitting the JK in the early game unless they're close to 100% they have the right person and they can use their strongman shot. The fact that you weren't thinking about it in those terms showed you were thinking about it from a (vanilla) town perspective. Not completely unfakeable, but enough to have convinced me that you were probably town.

[Uncleeurope]

On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.

So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.

[Joseph2302]

On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.

So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.

If scum get the PR, they don't get to use the ability, as per the setup

[Debatepro]

On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.

So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.

I don't think scum get to use the pr, they just get to know what it is. Maybe im misreading your post. It's possible they "fake claim" and use it to clear clear themselves. In this case, it would be tough to pull that off, since they don't know the JK.

[Uncleeurope]

I meant for the NK, hence the no death.

Suggesting he was JK.

Then pretended they had used the shot they didn’t use.

[mcmcsalot]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

[mcmcsalot]

assuming no one counter claims joth or joseph:

The night kill tonight was either on joth, on datswan, or performed by datswan against anyone. Those are the only options.

The only scenario where joseph is scum I think is where joth was the nk target.

[EFHW]

I am not the jk. More to say later.

[Awaclus]

I'm not the JK.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan

[Debatepro]

Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan

Hmmm...Why would you ever do that? Wouldn't there be a chance that Neap would still be one of the PRs available in future duels.

[Awaclus]

Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan

Hmmm...Why would you ever do that? Wouldn't there be a chance that Neap would still be one of the PRs available in future duels.

There would, but it would be extremely small, given that we might not even have a duel every day, some of the duel PRs will go to scum, and there are 23495872394857234985 different roles that could possibly be on the list.

[mcmcsalot]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK

Oh right, if joseph is scum and joth is a vt who was protected by the jk the jk could stay silent let joth get lynched then joseph gets lynched and it’s a 1 for 1 without even burning the jk.

Yea I highly doubt joseph is scum.

[2.71828.....]

I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.

I am not the jk.

The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.

If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.

Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.

Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK

Oh right, if joseph is scum and joth is a vt who was protected by the jk the jk could stay silent let joth get lynched then joseph gets lynched and it’s a 1 for 1 without even burning the jk.

Yea I highly doubt joseph is scum.

And just as I was starting to like your conspiracy theory you poke a huge hole in it.

But ADK is right, no need for scum to gamble at this point, they just got through 2 mislynches

[2.71828.....]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

[jotheonah]

Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.

So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.

So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?