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Author Topic: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Game Over, Perfect Mafia Victory!)  (Read 297161 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #600 on: January 31, 2019, 07:32:20 am »

Vote Count 1.9
"Of all things, good sense is the most fairly distributed: everyone thinks he is so well supplied with it that even those who are the hardest to satisfy in every other respect never desire more of it than they already have." — René Descartes

MiX (3): Debatepro, shraeye, arishipshape
LaLight (3): silverspawn, EFHW, mail-mi
mail-mi (3): DatSwan, raerae, LaLight
raerae (2): Joseph2302, faust
shraeye (1): MiX
arishipshape (1): Uncleeurope

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends February 01, 2019, 05:00:00 pm. That's in about 33 hours.


Edited the time.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 01:31:53 pm by UmbrageOfSnow »
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #601 on: January 31, 2019, 07:40:21 am »

In fact, the more I think about it, the more I see a shraeye!raerae scum team...just look at their interactions:
Meh. I think their interactions stem more from the fact that they are a RL team than a scumteam.
raerae did announce her intention to be hard on Shraeye before role pms went out.

But she's not, all of that interaction seems...fake. Like they're trying to interact because pre-game they said they would. In reality, they're interacting with me, raerae in particular seems to USE shraeye to get a scumread on me. Eh, still don't like them.
I will concede that the Shraeye/MiX qt theory is odd.
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Debatepro

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #602 on: January 31, 2019, 08:57:39 am »

I will be here at the deadline tomorrow
Same I think

I'll be able to check about an hour before the deadline but may be in transit when it actually passes.

I'm comfortable with my read. More so now that people are getting more serious.
1. Justification's spin up about LaLight, MiX really sees the point.
2. Justifications really spin up on raeyae, MiX really sees the point.
 
If we were playing a condensed/quicker game, how would you judge MiX's play especially early? Because that's his background and experience. It's got to be scummy right?


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Uncleeurope

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #603 on: January 31, 2019, 09:04:12 am »

I must say that I don’t agree with the raerae read. The only thing that makes me think all you people are onto something is her wagon summary post, which looked a bit too biased for my liking, but I think it probably comes more from a place of frustration than scumminess? I don’t know. I just trust her more, which may be misplaced trust... I would strongly prefer a different candidate for the death today.

I also think MiX’s tunnel on Shraeye is problematic. My reads on shraeye lean town as well, I think he disagrees with me a lot, but I still think he is coming from a town perspective. And I doubt MiX will be able to pull together a shraeye case strong enough to get a lynch today due to my understanding of our group advice of now.

So basically, if it ain’t the two of them then who is it? Because I am not on board with that theory at all.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #604 on: January 31, 2019, 09:06:42 am »

I must say that I don’t agree with the raerae read. The only thing that makes me think all you people are onto something is her wagon summary post, which looked a bit too biased for my liking, but I think it probably comes more from a place of frustration than scumminess? I don’t know. I just trust her more, which may be misplaced trust... I would strongly prefer a different candidate for the death today.

I also think MiX’s tunnel on Shraeye is problematic. My reads on shraeye lean town as well, I think he disagrees with me a lot, but I still think he is coming from a town perspective. And I doubt MiX will be able to pull together a shraeye case strong enough to get a lynch today due to my understanding of our group advice of now.

So basically, if it ain’t the two of them then who is it? Because I am not on board with that theory at all.

Can you please say why shraeye and raerae are towny? Just saying that they are doesn't help me.

The others 2 lynches that I would consider are DatSwan and LaLight. mail-mi also exists in theory but he hasn't done anything scummy so I won't go there.


Also, I'll be here for the deadline.
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #605 on: January 31, 2019, 09:09:33 am »

I fear I can make these cases on everyone now...so please, destroy this and shraeye's case so I can improve as a player (or sheep if they're actually good  :P).
It does seem to me that you are having to imagine a lot of unproven things for your theory to work. It's easy to make up stories that feel right and startling when they turn out to not be true at all. .
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arishipshape

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #606 on: January 31, 2019, 09:15:21 am »

Im 90% sure i'll be here for deadline. Anyone wanna ask me anything? I feel like i've already said my piece.
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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #607 on: January 31, 2019, 09:20:13 am »

I fear I can make these cases on everyone now...so please, destroy this and shraeye's case so I can improve as a player (or sheep if they're actually good  :P).
It does seem to me that you are having to imagine a lot of unproven things for your theory to work. It's easy to make up stories that feel right and startling when they turn out to not be true at all. .

Can you give examples of what things have to be true for my theories to work? I want these cases destroyed, not ignored.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #608 on: January 31, 2019, 09:20:44 am »

I would say that raerae seems way too aggressive and desperate to be scum, maybe? It really comes down to a gut feeling for me based on rereading her, so I don’t know how to verbalize it as well, but I think she just feels like a town looking for scum to me, just in her own way that people disagree with. Probably.

And shraeye just seems good to me... everyone time I reread the guy I just see town.

Yeah, the reasoning is weak, sorry for that. I will try rereading them both again before death-time to try and formulate something more substantial.

And I also might be wrong, but I don’t think so.


Oh, and I should be ready for deadline time.
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #609 on: January 31, 2019, 09:40:49 am »

- raerae asks for shraeye's reason for voting me, he doesn't give it, she's annoyed; this is so easily orchestrated by two scum wanting to look like they're interacting with each other, but really, why did raerae have to ask that? There's no way shraeye would simply answer, this was a waste of time.
This is a natural interaction, there is no reason to believe it was orchestrated. raerae's asking is meh, but this does not point towards them being a team.

- pushes for a shraeye!MiX scumteam, votes shraeye first then me; all the talk about shraeye's suspicious in itself: sure they know each other IRL but "he's dangerous as scum, exceedingly dangerous" is...excessive, then there's the "if shraeye flips scum MiX's next" which could very well be "if my scumpartner dies let's mislynch someone".
raerae does not early D1 make the plan to bus shraeye just to be able to lynch you afterwards. That conspiracy theory level analysis. You are taking what she said and try to fit it in your narrative but you don't consider alternative explanations.

- keeps throwing shade on me while voting for shraeye (#191 is a great example of this); easily explainable if you see that she's preparing to jump on my wagon.
I don't see a reason for scum to "prepare" jumping on your wagon. They can just do so if they want to, especially early D1. And again, you say something is explainable by your theory, but this is not actually evidence that your theory is true. Trump being president may be explainable by the world being secretly controlled by lizard people.

- more interaction between them that leads nowhere, now about shraeye's (new) case on me, admits he's right; a much better question to ask here would be "why did you pick 3 people to guess?" but that would make shraeye have to answer it; he eventually does, but not due to raerae.
shraeye as any alignment knows that as soon as he posts those 3 names, he's going to be questioned on why he chose them. A potential scumpartner would not need to avoid that question.

- votes for me, the tipping point? My interaction with shraeye...which would at best point to a shraeye!MiX team. She points out more, but most of it is sheeping other's cases...although they're right, I don't like how she swapped BECAUSE of a slip that could only exist in shraeye!MiX, for me this was an excuse to ditch her vote on shraeye and start pushing my wagon. This is all in #329.
If raerae decided to bus a scumpartner, then there is no real reason for her to back out here. It's not like the shraeye wagon got any kind of traction, she could have continued voting there safely.

- tells faust shraeye's case depended on me being scum...then why did she vote for shraeye? Again, this feels like creating interaction out of thin air.
Not sure what this is referring to.

- says her case on me is (and I quote) "shows knowledge of shraeye's intent pre-game". And...? Did she forget everything else she said? At this point she's voting for me because...what, the only person on shraeye's wagon is me? I would totally take that opportunity of scum bussing each other and lynch...the most dangerous one (note how, in her PoV, we're both bussing); she already admited shraeye's more dangerous...my answer? She wants an active player out of the game and a player whose meta she knows in.
Meh, if she really thought you are both scum then it makes sense for town!her to jump on the bigger wagon.
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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #610 on: January 31, 2019, 10:12:48 am »

Thank you for your answer faust, I definitly went too fast against raerae...there's just one thing I disagree: if you have 2 scumreads, you should vote for the one that has LESS votes; that way, you can start convincing town to vote for them, whereas the other person is easier to push...you should, of course, swap to the bigger wagon when deadline approaches, but that wasn't the case. This is a playstyle thing, however.

Actually what's making me decide raerae's town now is this...

Don't like how big the raerae wagon got, if she was scum she wouldn't leave shraeye's wagon since, as faust said, raerae's case on me implies shraeye's scummy, then there's WIFOM but still.

I was sane at the time; now I see why this is absolutely correct.

What do you think about shraeye? I don't remember hearing your thoughts on him...actually you said them in #476, do you stand by it?
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faust

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #611 on: January 31, 2019, 10:19:28 am »

Thank you for your answer faust, I definitly went too fast against raerae...there's just one thing I disagree: if you have 2 scumreads, you should vote for the one that has LESS votes; that way, you can start convincing town to vote for them, whereas the other person is easier to push...you should, of course, swap to the bigger wagon when deadline approaches, but that wasn't the case. This is a playstyle thing, however.

Actually what's making me decide raerae's town now is this...

Don't like how big the raerae wagon got, if she was scum she wouldn't leave shraeye's wagon since, as faust said, raerae's case on me implies shraeye's scummy, then there's WIFOM but still.

I was sane at the time; now I see why this is absolutely correct.

What do you think about shraeye? I don't remember hearing your thoughts on him...actually you said them in #476, do you stand by it?
Well I certainly did not mean to convince you that raerae is town...

Well, shraeye has done one kind of townie thing and not much else. I wish he were more present, but I don't particularly think he's scum.
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jotheonah

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #612 on: January 31, 2019, 10:22:25 am »


Day 1 ends February 01, 2019, 05:00:00 pm. That's in about 42 hours.


Just a quick note. The Day 1 time in this vote count was accurate, but the 42 hours was a mistake. As of now (the time of this post) there are just under 30 hours until deadline.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 04:07:50 pm by UmbrageOfSnow »
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raerae

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #613 on: January 31, 2019, 11:22:10 am »

Can you please say why shraeye and raerae are towny? Just saying that they are doesn't help me.

You've already said yourself you think I'm townie (#348 for sure).

I think the wagon on me is the scummiest since none of them have given reason for voting for me.
Why is not giving reasons scummy? Also have you given any reasons why people should not be voting for you?

Because RVS voting isn't how D1 should end.  Because sheeping RVS isn't how D1 should end.  We have enough content that everybody voting should be able to give a reason by now.  Are you actually cool with 2.5 people voting without giving much, if any, reason for doing so?  We should all be able to defend our votes by now.

I don't know how to do that, I've never been great at defense in this game.  I think you should make up your mind over whether or not you want to vote for me and I'd be suspicious as hell if me saying I'm town would be enough of an argument to sway you.  If you have any specific questions you want me to ask I'm happy to but I'm not going to stand here and scream how townie I am, that isn't productive conversation and shouldn't influence anybody.

But srsly, why is the raerae post scummy? I'm not seeing it.
Something about the half-sarcastic-half-reready style really rubs me the wrong way. All she wants to say is "the wagon on me sucks because people don't have reasons" but she wraps it in pointless rehashes of what other people said.

Also raerae was my early gut scumread and I always regret it when I back away from those.

It wasn't sarcastic and it rushed because my kid woke up mid-post, I probably just shouldn't have posted it until I had actual time to work on it but I feel like some information is better than none.  Like right now, we're at the breakfast table and today, for the first time in history, he's opting not to finish his oatmeal so instead of the 30 minutes I'd usually get to do something (today, respond to the two pages that happened overnight) I'm cutting this short and posting so I can attend to him. 
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #614 on: January 31, 2019, 11:45:34 am »

I can't be at deadline, but can probably be on 4-4:30.
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #615 on: January 31, 2019, 12:52:42 pm »

Oh wait, deadline is tomorrow not today?
In which case I'm away after 2-3pm forum time tomorrow
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Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #616 on: January 31, 2019, 12:55:12 pm »

Thank you for your answer faust, I definitly went too fast against raerae...there's just one thing I disagree: if you have 2 scumreads, you should vote for the one that has LESS votes; that way, you can start convincing town to vote for them, whereas the other person is easier to push...you should, of course, swap to the bigger wagon when deadline approaches, but that wasn't the case. This is a playstyle thing, however.

Actually what's making me decide raerae's town now is this...

Don't like how big the raerae wagon got, if she was scum she wouldn't leave shraeye's wagon since, as faust said, raerae's case on me implies shraeye's scummy, then there's WIFOM but still.

I was sane at the time; now I see why this is absolutely correct.

What do you think about shraeye? I don't remember hearing your thoughts on him...actually you said them in #476, do you stand by it?
This logic doesn't convince me that rae is town
The wagon wasn't that big, so no need to get off it
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Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #617 on: January 31, 2019, 01:32:43 pm »

The deadline is tomorrow, although Joth's VC had the wrong "that's in about X hours" time on it, which I've just edited to be as it would have been at the time of that post.
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raerae

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #618 on: January 31, 2019, 03:20:52 pm »

Thank you for your answer faust, I definitly went too fast against raerae...there's just one thing I disagree: if you have 2 scumreads, you should vote for the one that has LESS votes; that way, you can start convincing town to vote for them, whereas the other person is easier to push...you should, of course, swap to the bigger wagon when deadline approaches, but that wasn't the case. This is a playstyle thing, however.

Actually what's making me decide raerae's town now is this...

Don't like how big the raerae wagon got, if she was scum she wouldn't leave shraeye's wagon since, as faust said, raerae's case on me implies shraeye's scummy, then there's WIFOM but still.

I was sane at the time; now I see why this is absolutely correct.

What do you think about shraeye? I don't remember hearing your thoughts on him...actually you said them in #476, do you stand by it?
This logic doesn't convince me that rae is town
The wagon wasn't that big, so no need to get off it

And you still haven't said why you're on it. 
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #619 on: January 31, 2019, 03:31:22 pm »

Can you please say why shraeye and raerae are towny? Just saying that they are doesn't help me.

You've already said yourself you think I'm townie (#348 for sure).

I think the wagon on me is the scummiest since none of them have given reason for voting for me.
Why is not giving reasons scummy? Also have you given any reasons why people should not be voting for you?

Because RVS voting isn't how D1 should end.  Because sheeping RVS isn't how D1 should end.  We have enough content that everybody voting should be able to give a reason by now.  Are you actually cool with 2.5 people voting without giving much, if any, reason for doing so?  We should all be able to defend our votes by now.

I don't know how to do that, I've never been great at defense in this game.  I think you should make up your mind over whether or not you want to vote for me and I'd be suspicious as hell if me saying I'm town would be enough of an argument to sway you.  If you have any specific questions you want me to ask I'm happy to but I'm not going to stand here and scream how townie I am, that isn't productive conversation and shouldn't influence anybody.

But srsly, why is the raerae post scummy? I'm not seeing it.
Something about the half-sarcastic-half-reready style really rubs me the wrong way. All she wants to say is "the wagon on me sucks because people don't have reasons" but she wraps it in pointless rehashes of what other people said.

Also raerae was my early gut scumread and I always regret it when I back away from those.

It wasn't sarcastic and it rushed because my kid woke up mid-post, I probably just shouldn't have posted it until I had actual time to work on it but I feel like some information is better than none.  Like right now, we're at the breakfast table and today, for the first time in history, he's opting not to finish his oatmeal so instead of the 30 minutes I'd usually get to do something (today, respond to the two pages that happened overnight) I'm cutting this short and posting so I can attend to him.

I like this post. raerae is less scummy for me.
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #620 on: January 31, 2019, 03:35:22 pm »


Kid woke up mid-post so I kind of had to rush that.  We've got 7 people on those two wagons, while it's possible that all seven of them are town, that just seems unlikely.  Basically I'm trying to narrow the field here.  I think the wagon on me is the scummiest since none of them have given reason for voting for me.  I'm going to vote: mail-mi, he's not giving reasons AND he knows my play.  I'm less cool with a LL lynch simply because you're advocating it, no offense, just can't vote at the recommendation of somebody I think is scummy.

Why leave a wagon of someone you think is skummy to join Wagon of one other person (who i think you also think is skummy)?

Because I know mail-mi better than I know MiX.  He sheeped a vote which isn't like him.  He wouldn't give a reason. 
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #621 on: January 31, 2019, 03:42:11 pm »

mail-mi not voting is one of the worst things he could do this day, a replacement's vote has a lot of value, he can read the game free of biases, thus getting a clearer vision on what happened; this obviously helps when scumhunting.

mail-mi not reading and voting is one of the worst things he could do this day.  I do not understand the passes people are getting for sheeping in this game. 
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #622 on: January 31, 2019, 03:45:54 pm »

unvote

Meant to do this on that last post given mail-mi's recent effort.
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #623 on: January 31, 2019, 05:11:46 pm »


Kid woke up mid-post so I kind of had to rush that.  We've got 7 people on those two wagons, while it's possible that all seven of them are town, that just seems unlikely.  Basically I'm trying to narrow the field here.  I think the wagon on me is the scummiest since none of them have given reason for voting for me.  I'm going to vote: mail-mi, he's not giving reasons AND he knows my play.  I'm less cool with a LL lynch simply because you're advocating it, no offense, just can't vote at the recommendation of somebody I think is scummy.

Why leave a wagon of someone you think is skummy to join Wagon of one other person (who i think you also think is skummy)?

Because I know mail-mi better than I know MiX.  He sheeped a vote which isn't like him.  He wouldn't give a reason.
Sheeping and voting without reasons is very much how mail-mi has played in the past.  Maybe you are thinking of someone else?
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #624 on: January 31, 2019, 06:02:09 pm »

Magic won't happen: vote: LaLight, shraeye won't die today.

For cases, I present EFHW's and...well, I want something before this:

@LaLight, why did you vote for me way back in #89?
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