To quote Robz:
So the thing about mcmc faust is, he's scum.
Let's start with his vote history. For the purposes of this exercise, Robz is going to be painted GREEN, as that is what his alignment would be considered from a mafia perspective (They wouldn't know he was a traitor and a "bad" vote):
D1:
Robz (#35), Galzria (#84), LaLight (#125), EFHW (#148), LaLight (#242), EFHW (#275)D2:
IDPTG (#386), PPS (#598), IDPTG (#615), PPS (#722)D3:
GkriegD4:
LaLight (#1044), Gkrieg (#1053)----------
Next, some quick Vote Count Tracking. Let's just look at end of day stuff for ease and (ha) brevity:
Day One Final Vote Count
Robz888 (1): McMcsalotHydrad (1):
IDontPlayThisGameLalight (1):
HaddockEFHW (7): faust,
Galzria, Hydrad,
Robz888, EFHW,
gkrieg13,
Pingpongsamfaust (1): Lalight
gkrieg13 (1):
DatSwan---
Day Two Final Vote Count
Robz888 (2):
McMcsalot,
gkrieg13gkrieg13 (2): Hydrad,
pingpongsamfaust (1): Lalight
pingpongsam (6):
Galzria, Robz888, Haddock, faust,
EFHW, IDontPlayThisGame---
Day 3 Final Vote Count
McMcsalot (1):
SpaceAnemonegkrieg13 (5): faust, Lalight,
Galzria, Robz888, Haddocknot voting (4): Hydrad,
McMcsalot, EFHW,
gkrieg13---
Day 4 Final Vote Count
gkrieg13 (5):
Galzria, faust, Lalight,
McMcsalot, Robz888 not voting (4): Hydrad,
Spaceanemone, EFHW,
gkrieg13---
First things first: This should come as a shock to nobody, but Hydrad is NOT Gkrieg's natural partner. There is almost no scenario where he pushes Gkrieg D2 (and ends on Gkrieg's wagon), and then fails to be part of his lynch on back to back days. That leaves faust and LaLight (surprise!). D1 & D2 faust ends the day on both town wagons, and LaLight is on faust - that isn't really all that important, except that it looks slightly better for LaLight (very slight). Many of us were on both D1 & D2 town lynches though, so I'm not going to pretend to paint faust scummy because of that alone. What IS notable is that the D2 lynch contains all town + faust. If you believe faust to be town, you must believe that was a 100% town wagon. Impossible? No. Super likely though? Also no.
Working under the assumption that Faust is scum here (and thus LaLight is likely town), it's easy to see in faust's voting pattern that he spread his vote around as much as possible - creating as many different wagons as possible. 4 different people on D1, and 2 others exclusively on D2. That's 6 players, all of whom are likely town here. Faust always had outs, always had wagons and other people to push. He made certain never to have the need to push Gkrieg.
So, why the change in approach from scum!faust D3? End game potential and town cred. This was the day of the mass-claim. Scum had just discovered where my sword was, and he knew they could steal it. He also knew that Gkrieg was lynch-proof. Pushing Gkrieg here would buy him town cred if they couldn't end game (at worst), and would hopefully allow scum to get a free NK on Night 3, along with an attempt to steal the sword. My guess here is that Gkrieg wasn't 1-shot death proof, but was BOTH 1-shot lynch proof AND 1-shot Bullet Proof. I'm also guessing that Gkrieg was the one capable of stealing the sword, which would explain why faust didn't yet know if I had the sword on D4 or if Gkrieg had been successful in stealing it. If I had the sword (and not Gkrieg), then the push to lynch LaLight D4 would've allowed scum to lynch town, and then for my shot to fail on a bullet proof Gkrieg - we would be here today with 6 alive (4 to lynch), with 2 known living scum, and the possibility for Robz to be scum (making it 3v3) still to endgame town - not to mention we don't know if there's been a conversion the other way.
But what about the rest of the game? Does it support a faust/Gkrieg team? Well, I think D2 is the key to explaining that yeah, it really does. D2 was the day when we had the greatest chance of lynching Gkrieg early. I was insistent on the lynch being Gkrieg or Faust, and we ran the Gkrieg wagon up to 4 votes (with, by the way, LaLight being vote #4 - not impossible for a scum teammate trying to actively defend by wagoning to cause cold feet - but definitely not what I would expect from LALIGHT in particular as scum, and definitely not as scummy as faust during this time):
Vote count 2.2
Robz888 (3):
IDontPlayThisGame, EFHW, pingpongsamIDontPlayThisGame (1): faust
gkrieg13 (4):
Galzria, Hydrad,
Robz888, Lalight
not voting (3):
McMcsalot,
gkrieg13,
HaddockNote that at this point, scum was not on wagon for Robz. In addition, the remaining scum was not choosing not to vote. So either Gkrieg's partner was on Gkrieg's wagon, or faust is Gkrieg's partner.
But what was faust saying/doing during this time?
He was scummy yesterday, is scummy today, and had a scumm-ily timed vote on EFHW.
vote: Gkrieg
Great case bro.
How is the timing of gkrieg's vote (which, for people who are interested, was after EFHW's claim) more scummy than Haddock's or PPS's (PPS did not actually vote, but expressed willingness)?
Why is faust suddenly defending gkrieg?
I don't like the ease with which the wagon has sprung up - after I said I found him scummy and without much of a case at all - while my vote on Idplay that is just as good was ignored. And I'm still wary of Galzria.
I'm not ok with the big wagons forming yet, there's still more to discuss. See below:
I don't know how big wagons are preventing us from discussing stuff. I'd rather have more happen than to wait for you to finish your 1-post-a-day discussion of things until we're out of time.
I want faust to say what he did last night, because as it stands my role-information from last night is pointing in the direction of scum!faust.
Well okay then. I took no action.
Fascinating how interested Faust was in a Gkrieg lynch as long as Gkrieg didn't have any votes on him. The moment the lynch might be a thing, Faust backtracked real quick.
I always get cold feet when my preferred lynch choice attracts lots of votes for no reason. You still haven't answered my question why his EFHW vote was scummy. Or, I think you didn't. I don't have the best track record noticing your answers this game.
Can anyone explain how any of the current lynch choices is a better pick than Idplay?
Deflection, deflection and more deflection. And this is after he had called (weakly) Gkrieg scummy at the start of the day (while simultaneously calling me scummy in the same post - the point on me being the only one he followed up with throughout the day).
But wait! Partners go both ways. We've looked at faust pretty extensively here, let's look at how Gkrieg viewed faust:
Gkrieg's vote history:
D1:
faust (#28), Robz (#50),
faust (#155),
Hydrad (#227), EFHW (#308)---
D2:
IDPTG (#567), Haddock (#570), Robz (#659)---
And... that's it. He never cast a vote on D3 or D4. So, with the exception of the Hydrad vote D1, Gkrieg voted entirely for town... and faust. Is it possible faust is town and Gkrieg never voted for his partner LaLight ever? Sure.
But here's the thing. There are a LOT of things that all need to work in faust's favor for him to be town here:
1) Gkrieg never voted for partner LaLight, despite having no reason not to (separation cred is a thing)
2) LaLight pushed Gkrieg to L-2 D2 when he could've done... nothing - meanwhile, faust would've been town unfortunately deflecting from scum
3) At the point of Gkrieg's highest wagon D2, his partner would've been actively choosing to bus instead of voting somewhere (anywhere) else
4) The lynch of PPS at the end of D2 would've been 100% town
5) LaLight would need to be a scum motion detector, otherwise he got lucky guessing that there was motion around Robz N1 (I had yet to claim to have targeted Robz N1 when LaLight claimed)
And really... just... yeah.
Extra things about faust:
- We have no idea if his role claim is true or not. It's entirely unverifiable.
- We have no idea if his item is true or not. It's entirely possible that he made the item up before the game began to use as a fakeclaim.
- It's entirely possible that the item he had DID exist, but doesn't do what he claims. It could've, perhaps, allowed EFHW to change alignment if it ended up in her hands.
- His case on LaLight is kinda based around LaLight's PR "not being likely with a Tracker in play"... and yet LaLight's PR is repeatedly verifiable and has been consistent and accurate each night, so...
So.
The thing about faust is, he's scum.
vote: faust
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Topic: RMM49: Samurai Jack Mafia (Game over - Town Won!) (Read 131636 times)