Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.
Why do you say this? How are we increasing the likelihood of multiple traitors?
Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.
Um. You're saying 3 scum, 2 traitors, 1 PPS? That's impossible. By my previous analysis:
So, to summarise realistic possibilities (remembering the possibility - haven't confirmed this yet - that Awaclus is being seen as a scum colour):
We currently have either:
1) 1 yellow and 2 blues, in which case I failed to pair any scum with their colour on N1.
2) 1 yellow 3 blues. No conclusions to draw here if this is the case.
3) 2 yellows, 1 white. means there were 2Y2W on N1, making schadd part of a 2-person scumteam. Possible but unlikely?
4) 2 yellows, 2 whites. Means schadd was white. Also means (I think) that I failed to correctly pair any scum with their colour on N1.
ie we have at least 2 non-town colours left alive. Assuming that Traitors are considered the same alignment as scum, which they should be, that makes 3 mafia + 2 traitors + PPS impossible. (2 mafia, 2 traitors, 1 PPS and something else is still possible - meaning we're in situation (2) above, with mafia/traitors = blue - but, again, why assume 2 traitors?)
PPS was two colors. That leaves Mafia and Town.
We don't know this for certain, and anyway there might be other SKs or survivors. Indeed there MUST be, by the above analysis. It's possible I've screwed up, and it's likely that my results have been messed with. But still.
If you read the Caitlin role, you'll see the bit about being recruited means either freeze or nk, can't have both.
True, it's less pro-scum; it is more swingy. Maybe we are all town talking to each other and scum have given up because they had some bad luck.
How is it less pro-scum? As far as I can tell, it's a kill that doesn't provide town with a flip until several cycles later. That's better than a kill, for scum.