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[Witherweaver]

@ Awaclus, E!, Dylan, WW - Are you lot against a Jake lynch at this point or just thinking or whats going on? Not trying to rush you or whatever, just wondering.

Not against, just Gkrieg is my preference.

It would probably go Gkrieg > Jake > Dylan > EFHW > Chairs > other people

I would be against lynching Iguana, Galzria, DatSwan, e, so whomever is left is in other people.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry guys, end of semester is soon and I’ve been incredibly busy. I will try to put in a good hour tomorrow.

[Dylan32]

@ Awaclus, E!, Dylan, WW - Are you lot against a Jake lynch at this point or just thinking or whats going on? Not trying to rush you or whatever, just wondering.

No. Weekend got busier than I expected.

I would be willing to lynch Jake based on PoE and pretty much the same reasons everyone else has mentioned, and the PoE is the same on gkrieg so I could go there. I didn't vote for Jake yet because at the time I was going to, it would have been L-1, and he had already said he wouldn't claim no matter what, so L-1 seemed pointless unless we were ready to lynch him right there. If I had voted then and people didn't actually want the lynch to go through then, scum could have just rode the momentum or faked a derphammer or something, and that does us no good.

Since the choice is between the two of them, I want to read gkrieg before deciding between them. I'll be doing that now.

[chairs]

Willing to listen to gkrieg lynch possibility, looking forward to hearing from him soon.

[Swowl]

@ Awaclus, E!, Dylan, WW - Are you lot against a Jake lynch at this point or just thinking or whats going on? Not trying to rush you or whatever, just wondering.

No. Weekend got busier than I expected.

I would be willing to lynch Jake based on PoE and pretty much the same reasons everyone else has mentioned, and the PoE is the same on gkrieg so I could go there. I didn't vote for Jake yet because at the time I was going to, it would have been L-1, and he had already said he wouldn't claim no matter what, so L-1 seemed pointless unless we were ready to lynch him right there. If I had voted then and people didn't actually want the lynch to go through then, scum could have just rode the momentum or faked a derphammer or something, and that does us no good.

Since the choice is between the two of them, I want to read gkrieg before deciding between them. I'll be doing that now.

coolio.
I am sure you will get to this in re read, but what exactly PoE are we gaining from GK? I will admit I have not been following the mastermind puzzle overly close so if it is from there that is understandable, but he is the last draft pick. Simply based on that alone, his PoE potential is significantly less than every  other players.

[Swowl]

typed it and regretted it. While I still don't see a ton of PoE potential from GK, I suppose having "line to draw in the sand" fort he worst pick, does help to an extent in catching lies in regards to claims.

[Swowl]

Hmm.

Yeah, based on what I know about last Night and on today's analysis, I'll vote: Jake.

Yo Chairs - I guess I don't really expect to get an answer to this, but on the off chance you can answer without compromising yourself... is the above based soley on whatever night actions that "gave me a 5" or are there separate reasons that have you OK with Jake?

[Swowl]

OK I got home and was lazy and I have been reading posts in reverse order from phone. Obviously there is more than one person "OK" with a GK lynch. Where is this coming from? What did I miss here?

[Dylan32]

Based on the results from Haddock's mastermind puzzle results. Jake and gkrieg are the two non-frozen people who have the highest likelihood of being non-town of some sort.

[Swowl]

Based on the results from Haddock's mastermind puzzle results. Jake and gkrieg are the two non-frozen people who have the highest likelihood of being non-town of some sort.

was reading as you posted this. Thank you for saving me however the hell much time it would of taken me to get there myself.

[Swowl]

also, side note... so when I say PoE for Jake I am speaking more to the draft order. I feel, not talking for him just kind of inferring (no idea if inferring is right or not, but Schadd is dead so fuck it), that Galz at least was looking into the same potential mindset.

Are we alone on this? Does no one else seem it strange to consider the top skum pick, especially when it is argued that the assumed amount of Mafia has been guessed at too low, is Schadd in spot 9?

[Awaclus]

I'm not very enthusiastic about either lynch really, I'd much rather lynch DatSwan. But if I have to choose between Jake or gkrieg (which is apparently the case), I guess vote: gkrieg is fine.

[Dylan32]

What kind of PoE are you doing on the draft order, and how would it be more useful than PoE based on something that specifically relates to alignments? I get that scum would have more data points to try to coordinate their bids, but there are like 10-15 other players roles (and some more fake claims since mafia wouldn't have know traitor(s)'s 3 things) that they couldn't know, on top of everyone's vote counts for a point, and they have no way of knowing what other people would bid on. The poe here is worth keeping in mind, but it is pretty conceivable that in a setup where a serial killer got the #2 slot, scum may very well have not done well.

You could be scum at #1, which means you would know scum was high and are trying to push this narrative to keep that point from being aimed at you.

[Dylan32]

What kind of PoE are you doing on the draft order, and how would it be more useful than PoE based on something that specifically relates to alignments? I get that scum would have more data points to try to coordinate their bids, but there are like 10-15 other players roles (and some more fake claims since mafia wouldn't have know traitor(s)'s 3 things) that they couldn't know, on top of everyone's vote counts for a point, and they have no way of knowing what other people would bid on. The poe here is worth keeping in mind, but it is pretty conceivable that in a setup where a serial killer got the #2 slot, scum may very well have not done well.

You could be scum at #1, which means you would know scum was high and are trying to push this narrative to keep that point from being aimed at you.

@DatSwan

[Swowl]

What kind of PoE are you doing on the draft order, and how would it be more useful than PoE based on something that specifically relates to alignments? I get that scum would have more data points to try to coordinate their bids, but there are like 10-15 other players roles (and some more fake claims since mafia wouldn't have know traitor(s)'s 3 things) that they couldn't know, on top of everyone's vote counts for a point, and they have no way of knowing what other people would bid on. The poe here is worth keeping in mind, but it is pretty conceivable that in a setup where a serial killer got the #2 slot, scum may very well have not done well.

You could be scum at #1, which means you would know scum was high and are trying to push this narrative to keep that point from being aimed at you.

Fair. My logic is based on the bias that I know I am not skum at pick #1 (or skum at all, to be clear). Also, can't argue with your logic at SK getting spot 2 as town got spot 1. However, You have to have like at least an estimate line somewhere yes? You don't have to say what it is, just think of it. Is it below 50%? I mean I am a huge advocate of the "use math but lynch off of reads thing", but math does serve a purpose.

I simply find it unlikely that skum exists within only the bottom 50% of the draft.

Let's take it step further. If we are using your algorithm to assume GK or Jake, then I def think Jake takes the hedge based on the idea of my theory. If you disagree, you disagree, that is fine. But if it is close between them, and we are unfortunate enough to mislynch, we fill in much more of the puzzle with a dead Jake than a dead GK at this point.

[iguanaiguana]

I don't know what kind of puzzle you are trying to fill in exactly but the draft went how the draft went. If mafia didn't get the top slot at Datswan or have the traitor freeze a teammate in Ash,  they also didn't get any slot above e or Space. That's just what happened.

I had a personal motivation for voting the game I did. It was my first ever game and one of my favorites. Datswan is claiming to have voted randomly and gotten lucky, no? I see that much more as something scum would do in a vacuum but neither outcome is particularly scummy or towny.

[faust]

Now, PRs (as I am basically still VT) you were the same Roles N1 and N2, all of you?

I DONT KNOW!@!#! *cries*

Vote Count 3.3

JaketheBaseballGod22 (5): Haddock, Galzria, chairs, gkrieg13, DatSwan
gkrieg13 (3): iguanaiguana, EFHW, Awaclus

Not Voting (6): ashersky, SpaceAnemone, 2.71828....., JaketheBaseballGod22, Dylan32, silverspawn, Witherweaver

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 4 at 12:30 pm forum time. That is in 26.5 hours.

[Haddock]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Why do you say this?  How are we increasing the likelihood of multiple traitors?

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

Um.  You're saying 3 scum, 2 traitors, 1 PPS?  That's impossible.  By my previous analysis:

So, to summarise realistic possibilities (remembering the possibility - haven't confirmed this yet - that Awaclus is being seen as a scum colour):

We currently have either:

1) 1 yellow and 2 blues, in which case I failed to pair any scum with their colour on N1.

2) 1 yellow 3 blues.  No conclusions to draw here if this is the case.

3) 2 yellows, 1 white.  means there were 2Y2W on N1, making schadd part of a 2-person scumteam.  Possible but unlikely?

4) 2 yellows, 2 whites.  Means schadd was white.  Also means (I think) that I failed to correctly pair any scum with their colour on N1.

ie we have at least 2 non-town colours left alive.  Assuming that Traitors are considered the same alignment as scum, which they should be, that makes 3 mafia + 2 traitors + PPS impossible.  (2 mafia, 2 traitors, 1 PPS and something else is still possible - meaning we're in situation (2) above, with mafia/traitors = blue - but, again, why assume 2 traitors?)

PPS was two colors. That leaves Mafia and Town.

We don't know this for certain, and anyway there might be other SKs or survivors.  Indeed there MUST be, by the above analysis.  It's possible I've screwed up, and it's likely that my results have been messed with.  But still.

If you read the Caitlin role, you'll see the bit about being recruited means either freeze or nk, can't have both.

True, it's less pro-scum; it is more swingy. Maybe we are all town talking to each other and scum have given up because they had some bad luck.

How is it less pro-scum?  As far as I can tell, it's a kill that doesn't provide town with a flip until several cycles later.  That's better than a kill, for scum.

[Haddock]

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

[Haddock]

The silence in the thread also reads to me that scum are pretty happy with the current status quo, which is lynching Jake.

The status quo atm is no lynch, so I don't agree that you can conclude this.

[Galzria]

@Haddock

PPS literally flipped two different colors on his lynch. That's absolutely reason enough to consider that he would've represented two colors to your power.

[Haddock]

@Haddock

PPS literally flipped two different colors on his lynch. That's absolutely reason enough to consider that he would've represented two colors to your power.

Mmmmmmff.
I simply don't agree that that's automatic.

In any case, see the analysis below - all possible current situations have 2 existing non-town colours.  So there's something else anyway.

And you didn't answer my question.  Why would you think there are two traitors?

[Haddock]

I mean "above" obviously - it's "below" while I write a reply.

[iguanaiguana]

Haddock it's two traitors because Caitlin Frost, who was a traitor in their previous game, is the only role that can freeze people.

[iguanaiguana]

Galzria Gollum / Smeagol flips between the different alignments each full day+night.