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[EFHW]

If we lynch a scum player today who bid on the same game as a townie before they claim their game, then we could have cleared that townie from being the same faction scum and we would have failed to do so.

So it is just as easy to turn your argument around and say that the scummy players are those who are refusing to claim their games.

I see. If the games aren't already known, scum could fake claim games later based on who has flipped. Now they would mostly likely say the truth, or lie and then maybe be caught. But what about the unfortunate towny who happened to bid on the same game as scum? I don't think we would be able to clear anyone based on games, but I do see some value in making scum commit now to what game they will claim.

Lalight bid on RMM10. Then he tried to change it to RMM35 but it was too late.

It wasn't the claiming that I thought was derailing, it was the long discussions of how to do it. I'm noticing that Space has not been scumhunting and their posts seem to distract from what is going on.

[EFHW]

If we lynch a scum player today who bid on the same game as a townie before they claim their game, then we could have cleared that townie from being the same faction scum and we would have failed to do so.

So it is just as easy to turn your argument around and say that the scummy players are those who are refusing to claim their games.

But what about the unfortunate towny who happened to bid on the same game as scum?

I guess you are saying that is a fortunate towny, because scum would presumably have been careful to bid on different games.

[silverspawn]

I 100% take back that claiming has neither downsides nor upsides. I had not thought it through nearly enough.

I agree with iguana. We all should claim games asap.

[SpaceAnemone]

If we lynch a scum player today who bid on the same game as a townie before they claim their game, then we could have cleared that townie from being the same faction scum and we would have failed to do so.

So it is just as easy to turn your argument around and say that the scummy players are those who are refusing to claim their games.

But what about the unfortunate towny who happened to bid on the same game as scum?

I guess you are saying that is a fortunate towny, because scum would presumably have been careful to bid on different games.

Hey @DatSwan, didn't our scum QT for the last bidding-based game sort of discuss the idea of two of our team going for the same number especially to look towny? I don't have time at work to go QT-hunting, but I feel like it was something we actively considered. Anyway, I really don't think it's a given that scum can't have bid on the same game.

[EFHW]

Claims thus far

Lalight/EFHW RMM10
gkrieg RMM11
WW RMM13
Dylan RMM14
e RMM16
iguana RMM28
silver RMM31
Haddock RMM32
Galzria RMM40
schadd  RMM43
Jake  RMM45

Awaclus ??
Chairs ??
DatSwan ??
Space ??

[SpaceAnemone]

I'm noticing that Space has not been scumhunting and their posts seem to distract from what is going on.

I just don't have time to make the lists I want of people and timings just now. I should have some more free time tomorrow (Wednesday) night UK time.

I absolutely don't think that solid info from claims is worthless as a form of scum hunting, so if you mean I'm not asking provocative questions and trying to make Haddock go boom, then yeah, that's just not my preferred method of working things out anyway.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space ??

RMM 18, since there seems little benefit of sitting on numbers any more. I'm still miffed we're not making better use of all this info, though.

[silverspawn]

Yeah, space said I believe that we should have organized the claims better, which is true. I certainly don't think it makes them scummy.

Actually I don't really find anyone scummy so far which is kind of a problem.

[Galzria]

Sorry guys - I needed a mental break day yesterday. It was the closest thing I had to a day off in 3 weeks, and I just didn't want to expend the energy on anything.

Catching up and answering anything posed to me over the next few hours, as well as deciding my preferred lynch candidates.

[gkrieg13]

Ok, getting to this now in the only way I know how.

I'm not the biggest fan of Haddock's Start of day.  Seems weird to be mad at an SK lynch, because I think those are generally the hardest ones to find.

I don't ever like the idea of silver claiming that he was the reason for the no-kill...

iguana continues to be a very townie person.  I think his analysis of things comes from a townie mindset.

Hi Everyone, Good to be back after a super busy summer and fall. Good job with Day 1! What would be benefit  to town of claiming draft order?

I'm slightly scummy on EFHW with how she specifically asked how town benefits, instead of how we benefit.  Minor thing.

schadd still seems like himself, although I'm getting scared, because he hasn't really done any analysis things, like I would expect him to do as town.

There are 16! people still alive?  Ok, it doesn't really feel like that, I guess.  Jake comes in just to talk about the draft order claiming, showing he is watching, but not really posting any reads or anything.

I like the case on Haddock, but I don't think it is true.  I think iguana is good for making it, but I don't think scum were necessarily expecting an SK, especially if there is a traitor that has an extra kill a limited number of times, and there was potential for them to have an extra kill with the stick.  I think scum is much more likely to jump on the PPS wagon, hoping that they caught town in a fake scumslip though.

TBH Haddock I dont have a strong scumread on anyone. Mostly I scumread PPS and now he's dead. So after he died I just used his flip to try to find something else to go off of and didn't find much.

You could be town for sure. But you didn't really convince me? Why can't you be scum?

I'd vote Datswan too.

Why would you vote for Datswan?

Also, note to self: Look at the wagon yesterday.  I think scum are much more likely to be on-wagon, even with the potential that PPS could be a mafia-member that they didn't know about (traitor, or non-traitor if the on-wagon scum was traitor)

g2g #530

[Galzria]

Regarding the theoretical limits of my life expectancy:

Nights are worse for me than days. I drop in a 48 hour period instead of a 72 hour period. If we're only looking at real life time, then extending days as long as possible maximizes how "long" I'll live -

100% -> 99%: 72 Hours (3 days)
99% -> 98%: 72 Hours (3 days)
* -> 24 Hours until deadline
98& -> 97%: 48 Hours (2 days) (((Night 1)))
97% -> 96%: 48 Hours (3 days*) (((*This is a result of 24 Hours for Real Life Day 7 on Game Day 1)))
96% -> 95%: 72 Hours (3 days)
* -> 48 Hours until deadline
95% -> 93%: 48 Hours (2 Days) (((Night 2)))
93% -> 91%: 24 Hours (3 Days*) (((*This is a result of 48 Hours for Real Life Day 6 & 7 on Game Day 2)))
01% -> 89%: 72 Hours (3 Days)
89% -> 86%: 72 Hours (3 Days)
86% -> 83%: 48 Hours (2 Days) (((Night 3)))
Enter At Death's Door:
83% -> ***: 72 Hours (3 Days) (Cycle 1)
83% -> ***: 72 Hours (3 Days) (Cycle 2 -> Dead)

From Game Start, my clock has a maximum of IRL Days of 33 Days.

For game days, I maximize by never accruing any daytime penalty time.

100% -> 99% (N1)
99% -> 98% (N2)
98% -> 97% (N3)
97% -> 96% (N4)
96% -> 95% (N5)
95% -> 93% (N6)
93% -> 91% (N7)
91% -> 89% (N8)
89% -> 86% (N9)
86% -> 83% (N10)
Enter At Deaths Door:
83% (N11, Cycle 1)
83% (N12, Cycle 2 -> Dead)

At maximum, for game days, I could reach 12 Game Days, and die Night 12. That would be if we lynched every day immediately such that the total of Real Life Game Time Day Hours totaled less than 72.

That means my life expectancy on mechanic alone ranges from: 3 Days/3 Nights (Die Day 4), to 12 Days/11 Nights (Die Night 12).

Why did we need to rush to lynch yesterday but not today? We didn't *need* to rush to lynch yesterday. I'll pull the quote in a bit, but I noted at that it would be VERY slightly beneficial to do so. I'm not going to (nor would it be good to) optimize my life expectancy based on mechanic. But at the time I claimed it made PPS almost certainly the lynch - that was the point of "draft 1" claiming. I honestly believed that PPS made a scum slip and felt that prolonging the day to eventually lynch him in the end would just be a waste of my water.

There wasn't a "change in approach" today. Claiming was going to take time. I attempted to start the process as soon as the day began, and I had hoped that 2.7 would have more of a hand in it. We went a full day after I posted before he ever even addressed it (and he was active/posting in that time), and then it just took time to get everything out. We could "rush to lynch" now, but prolonging my life at the expense of good time scum hunting is not exceptionally optimal. It worked yesterday because I believed PPS was scum. If we come into a future day with results from PR's, I'll probably push to lynch quickly then too.

Basically: Playing to the mechanic is rarely optimal - but ignoring it completely never is. So when it's optimal (Scum Slips, PR results, etc) I might as well try to save water and push the lynch.

[Galzria]

Now, for something new:

Can we lynch PPS yet?

For role related reasons, I would rather the game day be shorter rather than longer.

To be clear: It's not the end of the world if we extend D1. It would just be slightly (VERY slightly) beneficial to wrap things up sooner rather than later.

[Galzria]

So... Galz... You are saying that you thought that your play so far, or lack thereof (in regards to your normal content), has been in the interest of Town? You think that your fake claim leading to nothing but chaos (and you damn well knew that it would) was pro town? You are being truthful about your current bid order? You are being truthful about not receiving your item from a Station 1 bid as Pick 10? And you are claiming that you got the sword stick (given role PR) upon PPS death and it broke... as you are town.

All of that is correct?

Still haven't gotten an answer to this so I am going to summarize it down in case it came off as snarky or something... Considering you already did a full claim I would like an answer when you have a chance. I know you are not normally big on that, but if you are town I am seriously trying to find a way to believe you here so help me out...

True/False on the below:

1) You are Town. Like Town. Not kind of Town and not "not Skum". Town.
Yes. Unequivocally yes. Town, Green, will flip as such.

2) You were Draft Position #10
Yes.

3) You Bid for Station 1, and did not get an item.
I bid for Station 1. I have not claimed I did not get an item. Would it be beneficial to know if I got nothing or I got the Dagger? I could claim which, but have not done so to this point.

4) Because of your PR(s), you received the Sword Stick from PPS upon his death and it broke upon becoming into your possession so it is (to the best of your knowledge at least) removed from the game.
This is correct. If my entire claim is believed to be a fake claim, I can't really argue that because it's simply "You've given your narrative, and I don't believe it" -> I've put everything out there so if you believe I'm lying there's nothing I can do. If anybody believes the claim to be true, but that I'm scum, then I would have received the Sword Stick upon PPS's death and it wouldn't have broken. Do you believe that I would have chosen not to use it last night, claim as I have today, and risk being lynched with it unused?

5) Obv don't answer with the like actual number (this one wasn't in the original questions) - Barring outside elements (lynch, NK, being turned into a freekin Popsicle, etc...), are you currently aware of how long you have to live in the game if your death came from specifically "water depletion".. or whatever the correct term is? (not a true false question).
I believe my previous post with the math answered this. If there's more you would like to know about it, I'll try my best to answer - but I'm pretty much going off what's public information anyway. I'm at 97% right now (this is simply what's been reported to me, I have not checked the math to make sure it's accurate, but I believe faust wouldn't make a mistake). I DO have a 24 hour "free time" extension for Thanksgiving (that whole day will not count towards my water depletion).

Answers in bold in quote. If you have any other questions, fire away.

[Galzria]

Nobody needs to answer the below, of course, it's more me thinking out loud - but if it applies to you and you wish to say so, please do:

Has anybody, to their knowledge, had their item stolen?

Do we know/believe this is a mechanic in the game that exists? Was it in Rewind Mafia 1?

[Galzria]

If Galzria had gotten the water, his role would not be that bland. He would have a chance at a new item every Day and another chance every Night. He still does, while he is alive.

There's a decent chance many players got no item at all, or worse they got a penalty item. I don't have the option to receive or not - I must take whatever they might have had. The chances on any given death of me getting something worthwhile are relatively low.

Further, the list of items that I can use is very slim:

Slot 1:
French Accent - Phenomenal for me. My chances of dying at night were reduced due to my PR, and I can chose not to use this item on the night I expect to die due to water deprivation.

Funding - I'm not alerted if I'm shot, so I can't knowingly "recharge". In addition, as my power is not active, I'm not even sure I can recharge it.

Dagger - Bad items are bad.

Slot 2:
Loud Voice - Doesn't apply to me, my power isn't active and cannot target.

Dash of Spice - Wrong Dune game. Doesn't apply to me.

Slot 3:
Sword Stick - Breaks when I get it.

Paper - Not in game, unlikely to ever have been in game.

"?" T-Shirt - Bad items are bad.

Slot 4:
Priceless Ming Vase - Doesn't apply to me. My power is not active and I cannot "use" it.

Crystal Ball - Cool item. Might get to use if it's not used prior to coming into my possession (1-shot)

Slot 5:
Mole Squadron - Cool item. Might get to use if it's not used prior to coming into my possession (1-shot)

Metal Rod - Cool Item. Might get to use if it's not used prior to coming into my possession (1-shot)

Symbol of Anyanka - Irrelevant item.

Slot 6:
Baseball Bat - Extremely, extremely limited use item. Maybe I get it. Maybe I can use it. And maybe - MAYBE it does something useful.

Flint - Nobody, not even the MOD who created this item, knows what it does. His best bet was that it was a flavor item. Faust gave me nothing more than that when asked. Considered useless.

Slot 7:
Miniatures - Does not apply to me.

Golden Torch - Cool item. Might get to use if it's not used prior to coming into my possession (1-shot)

Slot 8:
The Amulet - This would be great to have. Was never gonna get it from Draft #10, and due to it's mechanic it seems unlikely to come into my possession. Would be cool if it did though.

The One Ring - I guess this would be neat to have? I dunno. Seems as much a curse as a blessing. Not likely to be in the game anyway. Amulet is strong for both town and scum (more for town, but good for both).

Paper Money - Doesn't hurt me. Don't have an active power.

Slot 9:
3 Literjons of water - Good to have, unlikely drafted as I didn't take it unless there's another Dune player out there. Would be cool to get, but it's not vital. My life expectancy based on mechanics should take me further into the game than I usually expect to live anyway (popular NK target here), so meh.



In all then, I could get potentially useful items from slots: 1 (best possible, potentially not in game), 4 (may or may not be in game), 5 (both items ok), 7 (potentially not in game), and 8 (unlikely to receive based on mechanic). In a "best case" scenario, there are 5 items out there that I could get to use (assuming they aren't used already), spread amongst 16 players not named Galzria. In reality, there's probably less than that. Playing towards living to use items later just doesn't seem practical.

[Galzria]

Could you explain your scum Galz narrative?

I feel like as that role I the logical play (as town) would be to get water so you can live longer and aquire more items not what was done.

Please see post above. Trying to live longer to collect items is a really neat idea - but practically speaking, given the item choices available and the likely distribution, it just isn't practical or useful. Especially when my PR isn't active or targetable, and thus doesn't work with a decent chunk of the items.

[Galzria]

So how could you have all those thoughts and then still do something so antitown?

I didn't do anything known anti-town, unless you're suggesting to know Swan is town.

Same logic - YOU did do something anti Town knowing i was town.

What's anti-town?

Better question - what was to be gained for Town by you claiming pos 1 then, obviously knowing they were in claimed, calling them out at the end. As you pointed it out you clearly knew it was me. It isn’t what was anti Town. It is why go through all the effort of this to be anything but pro town?

So what was pro town Galz?

Your claim?
You forcing pos 1 to out?
Pushing for quick lynch ?(not being results oriented).
Lying to Town?


This is nonsense. 2 days down the road after person x and y are gone anyways this is just gonna come back up. There was no reason for this line. He only reason was to help and by forcing hand he took that away.

Your whole argument is based on something I can't know: That you're town. Let's assume for a moment that you're not - and I die tonight. Or tomorrow. Or whenever. And you've never been forced out.

- you do know I am town. everything else on this line is irrelevant.

I believe that the damage to town that the above scenario does far outweighs any damage done to town by "outting" you now if you're town. The play, for my role, was over N1. At that point lying further is in no way advantageous for town.

- Then why make the top pick out themselves? Why suggest draft claim? If you believed your role was done then it was all done. Just do what was helpful and forego all this confusion. Skummy. Or skum. Galz is skum. Don't know if I have said that yet.

And what? You're upset that... I refused to claim first? Everybody agreed to the suggestion that claiming draft was fine (you included). Had I claimed first you still would've been outted - unless your plan was to try and claim Ashersky's spot in which case I maintain that the play was definitely the right one.

- You are absolutely 100% not this @#$%dumb. Skum. Skum Skum.

I'll give you that you must, regardless of alignment, argue from a town perspective - and that's completely fine. And if you've decided I'm scum then there's no real debating you. But for me, as town, not knowing your alignment, and having claimed your spot, it was 100% in town's interest for me to come clean once I felt my usefulness had been served.

- Didn't bother to read. Skum.

Cleaned up the quotes for ease of reading.

I can't really argue anything you've said here after: - you do know I am town. everything else on this line is irrelevant.. I don't, and all of my actions are based around the fact that I don't. If you want to debate what you would've done differently as town from my perspective, that's a conversation we can have. But you must approach that from a town!Galz perspective, not a scum!Galz perspective. The whole reason that I needed to "out" you publicly was *because* I didn't know your alignment, and if I die at any point in the future without coming out with all of this than MY lie, my TOWN lie, dies with me - and thus nobody would ever question that what I had claimed D1 was false.

Flip side - I was never Draft #1. You think I'm scum and that I know that Draft #1 is out there and is town. As you said, it should've been (and was) pretty damn obvious to me that you were Draft #1 on D1. Why do I need to out you publicly? To get you lynched because you have the Amulet and, as scum we can't kill you at night? But I'm not trying to get you lynched. I think you're *more likely* to be town than scum based solely on the fact that SK!PPS got the Sword Stick. Unless Scum!Swan believes that the power of the Amulet (Second part: Revive a player) is more valuable to scum than the Sword Stick (and it might be - Second part definitely holds value to scum, and preventing town from being an unkillable bomb at night is *extremely* valuable), then you're probably town here. Certainly I'm willing to trust that we might have PR's that can check that at night.

If you're town, I get the frustration that town!Galz may have outted you to scum (although they still can't shoot you at night, so I'm feeling that the outrage is a little fake/unwarranted) - but I don't believe, from your perspective, that the narrative of scum!Galz makes a whole lot of sense here.

[Galzria]

So Galzria, now that we have the #1 draft order claimed - do you think DatSwan is Town or Scum after this exchange so far?

The exchanges feel forced and fake - especially as I'm not calling for him to be lynched which would seem to be the logical play from scum!me (given that scum!me can't kill town!swan at night). But the simple fact is that PPS's flip and draft make Datswan more likely to be town than scum - despite Amulet being a very solid draft choice for scum. Certainly PPS's flip is more than enough for me to put Datswan completely off the table for today and hope for potential night actions and results to catch him if he is actually scum.

[Witherweaver]

At this point I'm willing to lynch DatSwan to get him out of the game.

[Galzria]

Possibly town on Datswan as well.

You don't think this is true stop lying to seem level headed.

I find this to be quite offensive even though it's not directed at me.

And I didn’t snap counter claim bc if he is skum it gives him what they want and if he town with some brilliant plan then I stop that from ever happening.
Mostly bc of all the potential variables in this game I  wanted to see how things played out.

As has been noted - 1v1 trades are horrible for scum unless they're used to set up potential endgames. That is not the case D1. Further, as items are not roles this game, but supplements to roles, the "draft" this game is far less important than in most games. You may be Draft #1, but you could have the crappiest role ever invented. Attempting to setup a 1v1 trade against an unknown valued PR just to potentially remove Draft #1 from play seems like really, really bad play - yes? That's because it is. This is double true if you consider the point of Draft #1 claiming D1: To get PPS lynched. If I'm Mafia, I knew he wasn't. That makes him extremely likely to be town. Lying to force a town lynch D1 and potentially set up a 1v1 trade with Draft #1? That's just awful Mafia play. If PPS had flipped town and not SK then there's no way I ever even have a chance to win a 1v1 with you if it came to that. The only reason I felt ok about the lie was that I thought PPS was Mafia - something that can't be the case if I'm Mafia myself (multi-ball arguments aside: but we've seen no evidence to this point that that is the case).

[Galzria]

Vote: Schadd

Does anybody know of a game where town:
- Could vote without it counting
- Couldn't hammer
- Only had their vote count when made from their QT
- Any other town explanation for Schadd being able to vote publicly but not have it count

?

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Schadd

Does anybody know of a game where town:
- Could vote without it counting
- Couldn't hammer
- Only had their vote count when made from their QT
- Any other town explanation for Schadd being able to vote publicly but not have it count

?

Why are you saying it doesn't count?

[Witherweaver]

I mean he's on the vote count now for Iguana.

[silverspawn]

always up for a vote: schadd

[Witherweaver]

Huh, I thought the end of yesterday was a normal fake hammer. So maybe Schadd actually can't hammer?

In that case, his play yesterday seems pretty townie.