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[sudgy]

There's one more scenario that's possible that we haven't thought of: one of our dead VTs could have gotten draft #2 and gone for slot #1.

[O]

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

What do you mean switched up draft positions? You mean claimed one from a vt scum?

I mean LaLight claims draft position 5 or W/E and Iguana claims 11 or W/E but really LaLight had 11 and Iguana had 5. Not a likely example but something along those lines.

Why would they do that though? I'm really not tracking why that would be good. (likely because it is post midnight and I'm still up)

it messes up our attempts at draft analysis. I don't see why they wouldn't, it's what I would do.

[Galzria]

There's one more scenario that's possible that we haven't thought of: one of our dead VTs could have gotten draft #2 and gone for slot #1.

We've all discussed that already. Possible, yes. Likely, no.

Unless they get crazy unlucky and Draft #1 for some reason doesn't go for slot #1, then they're passing on a guaranteed PR to attempt to take a slot that in all likelihood they fail to get. It doesn't make sense.

Unless they were ABSOLUTELY convinced Draft #1 would go for HH, it's a waste of a draft for #2 to bid slot 1.

[SpaceAnemone]

So if we were to judge who left would be the most likely to end up at #2, I would probably have to say Space I guess, assuming you (Galz) and O are telling the truth about not paying attention or going back to figure stuff out before bidding.  I don't know much about sudgy, but since I joined this past Fall, Space was already decently established and even modded the newbie game I was in (not my first game though). They are also very analytical and math oriented, so that's points against them.

I joined in July last year, so I'm barely more experienced than you. I co-modded NM9 and RMM38 with Haddock; we're IRL friends and he's the one who brought me into the f.ds fold for mafia-playing, so modding the newbie game was my chance to learn some ropes. NM8 was the one I was an almost-newbie in :-) My first game was M85 (which started just before M84).

I think faust already established that the person who got slot #2 must have guessed the correct game to be shot to the top of the list, right? He said the solution was M19 (see post #2678) so we're looking for a game that is waaaay before my time or yours, Dylan. I'm pretty sure that elsewhere on the forum, I've stated that I've never gone back and read the older games because I just don't have the time :-(

Here's a comment from faust that could be quite relevant now:

We should let the information come in from all the players first then analyse it when they've decided on their story. Town!faust should find this precaution really obvious...

I will likely not be around to analyze it then, so sorry, but I have to work with this information. I will be VLA from tomorrow until Monday.

I'm not saying don't work with it, I'm saying don't work with it out loud in the thread. Make cases out of it if you can, and vote and stuff, but honestly, what good are you doing town by posting a summarized list at this point?

I am trying to figure stuff out. It helps my thought process. I did not think a whole lot before posting it, but if I'm going to make arguments off the claims, then people need to see where my arguments comes from. For example, the large cap after spot one indicates that one highly-ordered scum fakeclaimed Calamitas' bidding spot. Which means we should be looking for scum among people who ranked low but are likely to have guessed M19 as the favorite game. That's O in particular.

.. though then O breaks the theory by pointing out that he didn't play in M19 and had left before then.

O then points out that Galz and mcmc won M19, and from his sig, we can see that Galz was scum in that game, so let's assume it's going to have been quite an enjoyable victory for him. But Galz is the one player whose slot we know isn't a lie, because if Galz lied about having taken slot 11 then O would have picked up a PR from 11 when he bid for it one place later than Galz. Galz could have had draft position #2 and bid for slot 11, but that seems like a supremely weird allocation of scum bids.

that's what I am thinking, 2nd slot has not claimed. That might be gkrieg, yeah, but maybe it's scum with a PR and the real scum took Calamitas' slot.

@faust, how did the thing with "who might choose M19 as favorite" ended?

We know that someone did because Jimmmm chose it.

Galzria, sudgy, Cuzz were in that game. It could be Cuzz getting unlucky. Galzria does not make too much sense given that his claim mostly fits. So that would leave sudgy.

Cuzz flipped town. Galz has the issues stated above with being at #2. Might sudgy have picked M19? Ah.. we're not even looking for sudgy's favourite game, we're looking for the game sudgy was most likely to have picked as other people's favourite game, so knowing that mcmc and Galz won it as scum is actually more important than whether it went well for sudgy himself.

[O]

I would bet even odds that LaLight was draft slot 2. Though Godfather isn't so amazing that it's worth a draft order 2 vote, so idk. But LaLight seems like an easy pick for being high on the draft order having read all the games?

[O]

I guess the good options for scum are more limited since Hammer Hero gets quite awkward. And it's not like the current most likely possibilities for #2 draft role, Roleblocker/Strongman, are just clearly better

[SpaceAnemone]

I would bet even odds that LaLight was draft slot 2. Though Godfather isn't so amazing that it's worth a draft order 2 vote, so idk. But LaLight seems like an easy pick for being high on the draft order having read all the games?

Yeah, I don't think Godfatherer is the thing that the highest-placed scum goes for, but of course the scums would need to pick roles that fit with their own style of play, too. Why move LL down the draft order from #2, but then put him at #5, though? His VT claim at draft position 5 was actually less believable than it would have been at draft position 2, and his claim stuck out enough that I used it as evidence towards his lynch.

The thing about position 2 is that the person could have been pretty wrong or out of date on knowing everything about all the current players and still have scored up there by getting the M19 part correct.. that rockets him almost to the top of the pack on its own.

I agree with you that thinking about how scum might have spread their choices is probably a good idea. Whichever person is the actual last scum (except for Galz), we know that an actual scum (be it the person in question, or possibly Calamitas) is very likely to have their exact draft position, and in the case of sudgy and Dylan, probably has their exact slot bid as well, since neither seemed safe to lie about at the time the claiming exercise happened.

So, with that reasoning:

In the case of scum!sudgy, that would mean that even if he was draft #2, there was probably a scum at draft #7 who bid for slot 6 and ended up a goon. What were they after there in slot 6? Is 1-shot bus driver such a hot scum power that it's the one to go for after RB and Godfatherer? Does the third-ranked scum go for bus driver? Or is the idea to knock town-useful roles out of their slot to reduce the chance of things like UB or Masons being in the game?

In the case of scum!Dylan, we think there was a scum at draft position 8 who went for slot 13 and ended up a goon. That seems a bit more plausible. But I feel like Dylan is by far the least likely of you to have picked M19. So with a low likelihood we'd have Dylan-draft2-RB, LL-draft5-godfatherer, Calamitas/ash/iguana-draft8-slot13 and so on down. And with a higher likelihood, LL would have been the top scum draft and Dylan the second-top... so does the second-top one go for slot 13?

In the case of scum!O, we only have his word that he wasn't aware of what was going on around M19, but it still seems unlikely that he'd rank up there, and faust seemed to accept that reasoning earlier in the game. So again, we have a low-likelihood of him being an RB at draft2, or we accept that scum thought that their lowest-placed member should go for RB, or we assume that they mixed up their claims a lot, so say ash was actually at #20.. that would pay off now, having O left as a really low number in the draft, but what motivation was there at the time of the claim exercise for them to renumber themselves that way? They wouldn't have known that O was going outlast the rest. Same argument is actually applicable to any of these.

Galz is the complicated case, because I don't see any way that he didn't go for slot 11 even if he was at draft2, because somebody above O in the order needs to have taken a PR from that slot.

PPE 0, but more thinking: maybe taking slot 13 out high up in the ordering is good not for what roles it offers, but for the chance of knocking roles out of the game. If LL had Godfatherer, maybe the most efficient way to ensure that the town-useful roles from that slot and others (like Tracker and BP) aren't there is for scum to try to mop up the random slots at the end...

I'm not sure these musings are really helping narrow down the choices a lot :-(

[Dylan32]

I didn't realize sudgy was in that game. Having calamitas right before would make sense, because I feel like he would be like me and have a pretty good grasp on current reputations on the most feared or respected players, but probably not the historical most fun game. I'm back to having sudgy as my preferred lynch now.

I know from your perspective it really means nothing, but I voted for M97 and then guessed M80. I thought there were enough people here that were in that game that it had a chance.

[SpaceAnemone]

I didn't realize sudgy was in that game.

Well, faust said so at #3387 (one of the quotes I used a few posts ago). One (or maybe all!) of us should go and look at the game for sure if we're going to use that as part of a case on sudgy, though! Today is my not-much-time-for-mafia day because I'm going to be out at Board Games night till late... I'm only posting from the office this afternoon because it's been 32 degrees in here for much of the day and my brain has been somewhat melting and quite distractable.

Having calamitas right before would make sense, because I feel like he would be like me and have a pretty good grasp on current reputations on the most feared or respected players, but probably not the historical most fun game. I'm back to having sudgy as my preferred lynch now.

I'm pretty sure I'd earlier said how it wouldn't surprise me if draft position 19 (the one RR and e fought about) had been Calamitas's, because I was at draft position 18, and it wouldn't have surprised me if he'd been approximately the same as me :-P

[Dylan32]

I didn't realize sudgy was in that game.

Well, faust said so at #3387 (one of the quotes I used a few posts ago). One (or maybe all!) of us should go and look at the game for sure if we're going to use that as part of a case on sudgy, though! Today is my not-much-time-for-mafia day because I'm going to be out at Board Games night till late... I'm only posting from the office this afternoon because it's been 32 degrees in here for much of the day and my brain has been somewhat melting and quite distractable.

Having calamitas right before would make sense, because I feel like he would be like me and have a pretty good grasp on current reputations on the most feared or respected players, but probably not the historical most fun game. I'm back to having sudgy as my preferred lynch now.

I'm pretty sure I'd earlier said how it wouldn't surprise me if draft position 19 (the one RR and e fought about) had been Calamitas's, because I was at draft position 18, and it wouldn't have surprised me if he'd been approximately the same as me :-P

Yeah your quote alerted me to that fact.

RR flipped town, so that wasn't Cal's.

[SpaceAnemone]

I didn't realize sudgy was in that game.

Well, faust said so at #3387 (one of the quotes I used a few posts ago). One (or maybe all!) of us should go and look at the game for sure if we're going to use that as part of a case on sudgy, though! Today is my not-much-time-for-mafia day because I'm going to be out at Board Games night till late... I'm only posting from the office this afternoon because it's been 32 degrees in here for much of the day and my brain has been somewhat melting and quite distractable.

Having calamitas right before would make sense, because I feel like he would be like me and have a pretty good grasp on current reputations on the most feared or respected players, but probably not the historical most fun game. I'm back to having sudgy as my preferred lynch now.

I'm pretty sure I'd earlier said how it wouldn't surprise me if draft position 19 (the one RR and e fought about) had been Calamitas's, because I was at draft position 18, and it wouldn't have surprised me if he'd been approximately the same as me :-P

Yeah your quote alerted me to that fact.

RR flipped town, so that wasn't Cal's.

Yeah, I realise it can't have been Cal's spot -- I just find it funny that we're all claiming similarity to Calamitas in terms of quite different drafting expectations :-)

[sudgy]

I wasn't in M19.  I didn't even know it was that well-liked until halfway through this game.

[sudgy]

I wasn't in M19.  I didn't even know it was that well-liked until halfway through this game.

To be more specific, I joined at M21 and I think M19 was just finishing up.  I wasn't really looking at other games at all.

[Dylan32]

I didn't realize sudgy was in that game.

Well, faust said so at #3387 (one of the quotes I used a few posts ago). One (or maybe all!) of us should go and look at the game for sure if we're going to use that as part of a case on sudgy, though! Today is my not-much-time-for-mafia day because I'm going to be out at Board Games night till late... I'm only posting from the office this afternoon because it's been 32 degrees in here for much of the day and my brain has been somewhat melting and quite distractable.

Having calamitas right before would make sense, because I feel like he would be like me and have a pretty good grasp on current reputations on the most feared or respected players, but probably not the historical most fun game. I'm back to having sudgy as my preferred lynch now.

I'm pretty sure I'd earlier said how it wouldn't surprise me if draft position 19 (the one RR and e fought about) had been Calamitas's, because I was at draft position 18, and it wouldn't have surprised me if he'd been approximately the same as me :-P

Yeah your quote alerted me to that fact.

RR flipped town, so that wasn't Cal's.

Yeah, I realise it can't have been Cal's spot -- I just find it funny that we're all claiming similarity to Calamitas in terms of quite different drafting expectations :-)

Yeah, honestly, I would be the difference between 4-5 down to say 17-18 probably aren't very different. We probably would all include  a mostly similar core group of players (faust, ash, gkrieg, etc) in those lists, and so it was just the remaining edge cases or the ordering of the one question that would be the difference. That would also contribute credibility to O being down below that I guess since he wouldn't be as familiar with the "new" vets that came around and established themselves after he left.

I'm going to go ahead and Vote: sudgy. Between my game-long read, the fact he was in the most popular game which would put him right at the top, and POE: I don't think Galz is scum because Occam's Razor with his claim and everything; As you've seen, I'm becoming more and more convinced O is town; Space has been a town-read of mine for a while, but I still need to reread before the end. Plus, I can't put my finger on why, but this:

There's one more scenario that's possible that we haven't thought of: one of our dead VTs could have gotten draft #2 and gone for slot #1.

feels very much like scum trying to deflect town away from a very accurate line of thinking.

PPE 2 found a quote where faust admitted he double checked and was wrong about sudgy in that game. I just looked and can confirm also. Sorry.

[Dylan32]

I didn't realize sudgy was in that game.

Well, faust said so at #3387 (one of the quotes I used a few posts ago). One (or maybe all!) of us should go and look at the game for sure if we're going to use that as part of a case on sudgy, though! Today is my not-much-time-for-mafia day because I'm going to be out at Board Games night till late... I'm only posting from the office this afternoon because it's been 32 degrees in here for much of the day and my brain has been somewhat melting and quite distractable.

Having calamitas right before would make sense, because I feel like he would be like me and have a pretty good grasp on current reputations on the most feared or respected players, but probably not the historical most fun game. I'm back to having sudgy as my preferred lynch now.

I'm pretty sure I'd earlier said how it wouldn't surprise me if draft position 19 (the one RR and e fought about) had been Calamitas's, because I was at draft position 18, and it wouldn't have surprised me if he'd been approximately the same as me :-P

Yeah your quote alerted me to that fact.

RR flipped town, so that wasn't Cal's.

Yeah, I realise it can't have been Cal's spot -- I just find it funny that we're all claiming similarity to Calamitas in terms of quite different drafting expectations :-)

Yeah, honestly, I would be the difference between 4-5 down to say 17-18 probably aren't very different. We probably would all include  a mostly similar core group of players (faust, ash, gkrieg, etc) in those lists, and so it was just the remaining edge cases or the ordering of the one question that would be the difference. That would also contribute credibility to O being down below that I guess since he wouldn't be as familiar with the "new" vets that came around and established themselves after he left.

I'm going to go ahead and Vote: sudgy. Between my game-long read, the fact he was in the most popular game which would put him right at the top the fact he was here and would likely have seen some of the postgame chat, and POE: I don't think Galz is scum because Occam's Razor with his claim and everything; As you've seen, I'm becoming more and more convinced O is town; Space has been a town-read of mine for a while, but I still need to reread before the end. Plus, I can't put my finger on why, but this:

There's one more scenario that's possible that we haven't thought of: one of our dead VTs could have gotten draft #2 and gone for slot #1.

feels very much like scum trying to deflect town away from a very accurate line of thinking.

PPE 2 found a quote where faust admitted he double checked and was wrong about sudgy in that game. I just looked and can confirm also. Sorry.

Fixed for new info

[Robz888]

Vote Count 8.3

Dylan32 (1): sudgy
sudgy (1): Dylan32

Not Voting (3): O, Galzria, SpaceAnemone

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Day 8 ends Tuesday, July 11, at 11:00 AM Forum Time.

[sudgy]

I know you can only have my word, but I didn't really see anything about that game.  The only thing I remember was that people weren't sure if it should have been normal or not.  I was surprised to see that it was a favorite.

[O]

Galz, what do you think of Space?

Pretty consistently the most effort the past few days, but effort!=town.

I ask this mostly because my perception of the game is that we're on the Dylan&Sudgy lynch trains. Which is my first choice, so that's pretty good, but it's gonna suck if I lose because I dropped my Space!Scum read.

Whereas I've implied before enough times, if you're scum I'll simply take the L and tip my hat to you because lynching you is actually just a terrible plan regardless of who gets lynched and killed.

I'm definitely pretty close to willing to commit to Sudgy!Dylan. I'd put it at 75-25 odds that scums among those two (Space probably would have similar predictive odds, and Galzria lower since me/Space are both much more likely scum than Galzria).

[Galzria]

Galz, what do you think of Space?

Pretty consistently the most effort the past few days, but effort!=town.

I ask this mostly because my perception of the game is that we're on the Dylan&Sudgy lynch trains. Which is my first choice, so that's pretty good, but it's gonna suck if I lose because I dropped my Space!Scum read.

Whereas I've implied before enough times, if you're scum I'll simply take the L and tip my hat to you because lynching you is actually just a terrible plan regardless of who gets lynched and killed.

I'm definitely pretty close to willing to commit to Sudgy!Dylan. I'd put it at 75-25 odds that scums among those two (Space probably would have similar predictive odds, and Galzria lower since me/Space are both much more likely scum than Galzria).

Space is really hard for me to get a read on because everything they do is so neutral. Right now I lean town based largely on the LaLight lynch - but I want to fully reread them trying to look past the analytical stuff.

There's definitely no doubt in my mind that - despite their late foray into f.ds Mafia - Space no doubt has the analytical capability of making as educated guess at favorite mafia game as anybody here. Certainly doesn't mean they're scum - but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Space took draft #2.

I have any entire non - holiday day off tomorrow. I'll need to work from home, but I'll be pretty much here and available all day!

[Dylan32]

I'm starting to get more concerned. I was hoping that we could settle the sudgy vs me thing--which is actually more artificial than any of the other 1v1s we've had this game, there's nothing concrete to even suggest it is an either or situation--a day earlier so that if you mislynched me and then sudgy flipped town or vice-versa, the two of us would be the two lynches before LYLO rather than the last two to let scum steal the win. Since that is what yesterday seemed to be shaping up to until the late pivot to RR (pushed strongly by Space), I actually think scum (whether Space or O) was either pushing for or excited for the chance to leave the false dichotomy in the game to give them a chance to steal.  This realization has just made me seriously doubt Space, even though I generally (meaning in most games) agree with and town read them for their analysis and stuff.  That late pivot might just have been just opportunistic enough thanks to RR being RR to give them the chance they needed to push back the two most obvious mislynches. unvote while I think and until I can read.

[Dylan32]

Also, please don't let this die out guys. Scum wants the thread to maintain the status quo... Space and sudgy, you are past 24 hours. O is a half hour away.

[Dylan32]

And yes, I was a couple hours past 24 also before you point it out.

[O]

I think once RoadRunner did his stuff yesterday there was no way he was living longer than today anyways. What possible "strong evidence" of towniness could a VT have in the first place? None of the draft claiming shenanigans could provide that, really.

Vote: Dylan gutshot stronger scumread than Sudgy.

[Dylan32]

I think once RoadRunner did his stuff yesterday there was no way he was living longer than today anyways. What possible "strong evidence" of towniness could a VT have in the first place? None of the draft claiming shenanigans could provide that, really.

Vote: Dylan gutshot stronger scumread than Sudgy.

Like I said, that was typical RR and shouldn't have been jumped on the way it was. I know you wouldn't know that, but Space should have...

[Dylan32]

I think once RoadRunner did his stuff yesterday there was no way he was living longer than today anyways. What possible "strong evidence" of towniness could a VT have in the first place? None of the draft claiming shenanigans could provide that, really.

Vote: Dylan gutshot stronger scumread than Sudgy.

And besides, I can't remember the last time any one who based their read on me on their gut actually was right (as either alignment). Space in particular has a hard time with it, as they town read me in every both scum games I've played with town!them (or at least believed my claim enough to wait and see if other flips implicated me first in our last one) and typically gut scum reads me in my town games.