I've done pretty much a full re-read of D3 (and much of D4) this evening to try to see what openings scum would have had in the claiming exercise. Here's a summary of all the interesting info -- mostly just claim-relevant stuff and anything else that jumped out at me.
At the opening of D3, we've just seen Eevee's death and his Masonic Lover flip. Pretty soon, Galz and Faust come out as JK and 2-shot vig respectively. Their stories tie together very well, and now we've seen faust's flip, so we know he's town at least. I believe faust and Galz are the only two players to have claimed slots/draft placings before the start of the claiming process, which was ~200 posts into D3. [Update: PPS had also said he went for restless sheeper].
#2682 is a nice wifomy post from Galz about how he would have sat on his vig-read of faust had he been scum.
#2740 is a piece of logic from ash that may also be wifomy, but he seems to be scumreading Galz for changing JK targets between N1 and N2 because a town player ought to have assumed faust was a scum faction and kept jailing him, whereas in fact Galz claims to have jailed ash. It feels like an odd way for scum!ash to distance himself from a potential scum!Galz, though.. seems more like a crafted scumread to sew doubt around Galz himself.
#2847 Awaclus posts his claim order, which is
JaketheBaseballGod22
sudgy
pingpongsam
SpaceAnemone
Jimmmmm
Dylan32
2.71828......
ashersky
RoadRunner7671
iguanaiguana
LaLight
O
Awaclus
#2858: Jake: "I got the #17 draft position, and I am Not a VT"
#2867: Sudgy: "I'm a VT. I got draft #7 and got too cocky and went for Universal Backup (because it sounded fun and could be possibly be useful)."
#2881: Space: "I had draft position #18, and I'm a VT."
#2885: Jimmmmm: "I have a few pages to catch up on (including all this claiming business. Will do tomorrow." -- this immediately gets him a wagon of faust, PPS, LL, Jake and RR. Seems like a wagon scum might want to be on; LL was, and RR is still an unknown.
#2915: Dylan: "So I'm inclined to believe the claims until we have other evidence or claims that would contradict them. However, I do know of at least one possibility of how the claims could go (other than a straight up counterclaim) that would lead me to strongly believe that someone specific is lying. I don't want to say more til after claims are done for obvious reasons." -- Did he ever go back to that? I can't recall...
#2918: Dylan "I am a VT and got draft position #8."
#2923: faust: "I shot sudgy N1 FWIW, but Galzria stopped that from being a thing."
#2938: Jimmmmm: "Non-VT" (Claimed draft position 9 at #2943 after prompting by Dylan).
#2958: e: "VT. Pretty sure we weren't supposed to claim our bid position."
#2963: ash: "Not VT. Is there consensus on when you what our number?"
#2965: RR: "VT".
#2966: iguana: "11- VT"
#2967: ash: "12"
#2968: LL: "5, VT"
#2969: O: "21, VT"
#2970: Awaclus: "10, VT"
#2991: e: "Bid order was 19. Slot I bid for was 13"
#2997: O: "Galzria and MCMC both won M19 if that's relevant. Both have already claimed though."
#2999: RR: "I was position 19 and I bid on slot 13"
#3024: Jake: "Alright so I am the Tracker. I bid on slot #12. N1 I tracked Gkrieg but he died that night. N2 I tracked Ashersky who was jailed. I'm pretty sure I have the worst luck over the last two games." -- did we ever think to check with Jake that his result was definitely consistent with ash having been jailed and not him being a good who wasn't trying to make the NK or anything? It might have helped us distinguish between strategies.
#3056: RR: "I can tell I'm gonna have to fight for my life to get 2.7 lynched then fight for my life again to convince you guys this isn't a scum mishap. I've never been counterclaimed before." -- I think this is townpoints for RR, because he seems to be expecting e to flip mafia rather than SK, which is exaclty what most of us were thinking at the time.. but I'm not sure scum!RR would think that way, and he's not even covering the possibility of e flipping town, which a scum might fear.
#3064: RR: "Would it help if I said my formidable mafia team, favorite game and townies that got me to slot 19?" -- again, I think this kind of appeal is more likely to have come from town than scum.
#3083: sudgy comfirms slot 6.
#3084: Space: "I went for slot 12."
#3094: PPS: "Way back when I revealed my role I claimed I shot straight for it in Slot 2. I was #15 in the draft position."
#3096: Dylan: "To repeat, VT, bid #8. I bid on slot 13 and did not get it."
#3098: Galz: "Not calling your claim out here - but does anybody from top 6 really go for slot 13? Seems crazy to me."
#3108: Jimmmmm: "Well I guess enough is on the table that there's no point holding on to this. Yes, I'm the other Mason. I was actually #3 in the draft; Eevee was #9."
#3109: Jimmmmm: "Eevee also bid for Masons, so no extra info there."
#3191: TWM: "So who got slot 13? We have three people saying they tried for it, but didn't get it. If Dylan is telling the truth it has to be someone with a pick above number 8."
#3220: TWM: "I was bid order position #13 and went for slot #10."
#3234: RR: "How about we lynch e today and ashersky tomorrow?" -- possible not-wanting-a-partner-lynch? Or just hoping not to get lynched himself?
#3274: e: "I did win slot 13 and chose convert SK to survivor." and "I had to guess for a dead townies role. And I almost got away with it."
#3284: e: "I was bid order 6, slot 13"
#3289: e points out that only the SK could get the "convert SK to..." roles. I have only just realised now that that means scum had an incentive to work out who was in slot 13 because they all know that that's where the SK went, and they want rid of the SK. I feel slow! That is actually slight evidence in favour of a scum deciding that slot 13 is a relatively safe claim because the SK probably realises it's outing themselves to scum to claim it, so won't counterclaim.
#3341: mcmc: "Lalight and space feel very scummy to me. Space always feels scummy to me so not as strong as my feelings on lalight." -- lest I be accused of cherrypicking only the interesting info that makes me look good :-P
#3343: mcmc: "Oh I was draft position 4 and went for the hammer hero"
#3352: faust: "Also we probably shouldn't believe what e said about the content of slot 13." -- true, but if the sk did ge it, there are several SK-only roles that can have found their way in there with decent probability, so I still think it's likely that scum knew that the SK had that slot.
-- D4 --
#3481: Galz: "I jailed one of Ashersky, mcmc, or my highest scum read last night. I'm guessing Jake tracked me (I would in his position)"
#3455: O: "I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it."
#3472: Galz: "I jailed Ashersky last night"
#3524-3528: Little exchange between RR & LL. RR doesn't vote for the entirity of D4, so he doesn't show up on my wagons map, but he's pushing quite a lot for faust over ash.
#3560: sudgy: "Regarding iguana vs space, I have a gut townread on space, so would probably rather lynch iguana. I'll look more into them when the decision needs to be made."
Analysis/thoughts in another post or two soon (hopefully tonight, though it appears to be way after 2am already!), but posting this in the meantime in case it helps anyone else with their thinking.