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[SpaceAnemone]

I suspect I know why Awaclus wasn't shot instead, but to avoid obnoxious retorts I'll list both cases: If I'm scum, it's too risky to shoot Awaclus. If I'm town, might as well keep someone around who will only vote for a town member.

I agree with those, and add that Awaclus isn't really actively playing the game at this stage, so it's not really worth killing him off over someone like faust who's engaged, hunting scum, and might just about have a vig shot. There's enough of a maybe-scummy pool of lynchable players that taking out faust last night and Awaclus tonight (if we do mislynch!) gets rid of both of them at the same time as minimising the town-influence they get to have on discussions in-thread. I think it makes logical sense.

[SpaceAnemone]

Galzria? Galzria's not as conf!town, possibly more framable. Or Galzria could be scum himself. If I were scum, unless for some bizarre reason I think Faust has a vig shot i'm shooting Galz every time here.

This is worth exploring. You seemed to start down that road, but then retreat to thinking that Galz must be town and scumreading people who're interested in lynching him. What if Galz being alive is just evidence of him being scum?

You suggest looking at people trying to lynch Galz, which makes a lot of sense if you think he's our last useful town PR, but not if he's possibly the scum. I said back at #4089 that I think he's one of my top two suspicions for today after looking at voting patterns... I still stand by that reasoning, though I also still need to go back and read the stuff I said I wanted to look again at when I wrote the post.

[Dylan32]

So I just went back over sudgy's claim, and he was draft order #7, so he was relatively early. By the time he claimed though, we already knew that masonic lovers were in the game, so something in slot 6 (UB) was about as safe a claim as anyone who was as close to the top of the claiming order as he was could have had. The only person who claimed slot 3 was scum!Ash who claimed alignment cop, and Ash was a VT and also draft order #12 which is lower than sudgy's. Since it doesn't seem like a Galz wagon is going to happen, I guess I can go back to Vote: sudgy.  Plus, if it turns out sudgy is actually town and people are going to insist on lynching me next, I would rather that happen earlier rather than waiting til too close to lylo so that scum can't use that false dichotomy to steal the win.  Vote: sudgy

PPE 2

[Dylan32]

So I just went back over sudgy's claim, and he was draft order #7, so he was relatively early. By the time he claimed though, we already knew that masonic lovers were in the game, so something in slot 6 (UB) was about as safe a claim as anyone who was as close to the top of the claiming order as he was could have had. The only person who claimed slot 3 was scum!Ash who claimed alignment cop, and Ash was a VT and also draft order #12 which is lower than sudgy's. Since it doesn't seem like a Galz wagon is going to happen, I guess I can go back to Vote: sudgy.  Plus, if it turns out sudgy is actually town and people are going to insist on lynching me next, I would rather that happen earlier rather than waiting til too close to lylo so that scum can't use that false dichotomy to steal the win.  Vote: sudgy

PPE 2

*Double the votes, double the confidence.*

[Robz888]

Vote Count 7.5

O (2): RoadRunner7671, Awaclus
Dylan32 (1): sudgy
sudgy (3): Galzria, O, Dylan32

Not Voting (1): SpaceAnemone

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 7 ends Monday, July 3, At 2:00 PM Forum Time.

[Dylan32]

Crap, my vote was L-1. Completely forgot to check!

[SpaceAnemone]

By the time he claimed though, we already knew that masonic lovers were in the game, so something in slot 6 (UB) was about as safe a claim as anyone who was as close to the top of the claiming order as he was could have had.

Hum.. If this is true, it's something I missed when I was pushing LL over sudgy in D6. Could you provide post refs for things please?

[Roadrunner7671]

Vote: Dylan

[O]

Galzria? Galzria's not as conf!town, possibly more framable. Or Galzria could be scum himself. If I were scum, unless for some bizarre reason I think Faust has a vig shot i'm shooting Galz every time here.

This is worth exploring. You seemed to start down that road, but then retreat to thinking that Galz must be town and scumreading people who're interested in lynching him. What if Galz being alive is just evidence of him being scum?

You suggest looking at people trying to lynch Galz, which makes a lot of sense if you think he's our last useful town PR, but not if he's possibly the scum. I said back at #4089 that I think he's one of my top two suspicions for today after looking at voting patterns... I still stand by that reasoning, though I also still need to go back and read the stuff I said I wanted to look again at when I wrote the post.

I think Galz is the second most obvTown person here. I think the only reason someone would NK Faust over Galz is to try to play the WIFOM and frame Galzria, or, obviously, if Galzria was the scum he wouldn't NK himself. So thats why I have this seemingly contradictory set of positions.

Mafia almost certainly missed a kill. What do we think caused the missed kill other than Galzria? Because of that, I think it's far more likely that they're trying to set up Galz then Galz being the scum.

[Dylan32]

Galzria? Galzria's not as conf!town, possibly more framable. Or Galzria could be scum himself. If I were scum, unless for some bizarre reason I think Faust has a vig shot i'm shooting Galz every time here.

This is worth exploring. You seemed to start down that road, but then retreat to thinking that Galz must be town and scumreading people who're interested in lynching him. What if Galz being alive is just evidence of him being scum?

You suggest looking at people trying to lynch Galz, which makes a lot of sense if you think he's our last useful town PR, but not if he's possibly the scum. I said back at #4089 that I think he's one of my top two suspicions for today after looking at voting patterns... I still stand by that reasoning, though I also still need to go back and read the stuff I said I wanted to look again at when I wrote the post.

I think Galz is the second most obvTown person here. I think the only reason someone would NK Faust over Galz is to try to play the WIFOM and frame Galzria, or, obviously, if Galzria was the scum he wouldn't NK himself. So thats why I have this seemingly contradictory set of positions.

Mafia almost certainly missed a kill. What do we think caused the missed kill other than Galzria? Because of that, I think it's far more likely that they're trying to set up Galz then Galz being the scum.

What kill would they have missed?

[Dylan32]

Galzria? Galzria's not as conf!town, possibly more framable. Or Galzria could be scum himself. If I were scum, unless for some bizarre reason I think Faust has a vig shot i'm shooting Galz every time here.

This is worth exploring. You seemed to start down that road, but then retreat to thinking that Galz must be town and scumreading people who're interested in lynching him. What if Galz being alive is just evidence of him being scum?

You suggest looking at people trying to lynch Galz, which makes a lot of sense if you think he's our last useful town PR, but not if he's possibly the scum. I said back at #4089 that I think he's one of my top two suspicions for today after looking at voting patterns... I still stand by that reasoning, though I also still need to go back and read the stuff I said I wanted to look again at when I wrote the post.

I think Galz is the second most obvTown person here. I think the only reason someone would NK Faust over Galz is to try to play the WIFOM and frame Galzria, or, obviously, if Galzria was the scum he wouldn't NK himself. So thats why I have this seemingly contradictory set of positions.

Mafia almost certainly missed a kill. What do we think caused the missed kill other than Galzria? Because of that, I think it's far more likely that they're trying to set up Galz then Galz being the scum.

Oh yeah N2 galz jailed Ash. So either Ash was blocked shooting, e was blocked from shooting Ash, or one faction tried to shoot mcmc in case he was bluffing about 100% choosing bullet proof instead of killing. The 3rd option would explain it without needing truthful Galz.

[Dylan32]

By the time he claimed though, we already knew that masonic lovers were in the game, so something in slot 6 (UB) was about as safe a claim as anyone who was as close to the top of the claiming order as he was could have had.

Hum.. If this is true, it's something I missed when I was pushing LL over sudgy in D6. Could you provide post refs for things please?

Eevee (one of the masons) was killed N2, so that's when we knew it was a thing.

Awaclus sets the order for the mass claim here at #2847 (bold added)

This is the order:

JaketheBaseballGod22
sudgy
pingpongsam
SpaceAnemone
Jimmmmm
Dylan32
2.71828......
ashersky
RoadRunner7671
iguanaiguana
LaLight
O
Awaclus

If this list contains people who already claimed and I missed it, I would like them to claim again.

Jake claimed order and not-VT.

Sudgy basically full claims at #2867. (Bold was in the original post)

I'm a VT.  I got draft #7 and got too cocky and went for Universal Backup (because it sounded fun and could be possibly be useful).

I think the only real setup info out was the stuff we got from flips and the mcmc and twm claims.

[Dylan32]

Now that I'm rereading his claim, that last part just seems like he was trying to hard to explain it. Like UB isn't one of the roles where anyone would say "Why would you go for that?" so why make a point of rationalizing it?  And for the info about no one claiming slot 3, that's in the claim summary posts by faust, so try to find one of those. I think there is one roughly page 125ish, but I don't have time to go back and dig anymore right now.

[SpaceAnemone]

Mafia almost certainly missed a kill. What do we think caused the missed kill other than Galzria? Because of that, I think it's far more likely that they're trying to set up Galz then Galz being the scum.

I think it's totally safe to say that someone missed a kill. And I'm pretty convinced that Galzria is the JK, but we shouldn't forget that it's very possible to be a scum!JK given this set-up. Gaz could have protected ash from an SK kill by JKing him that night, while another scum make the actual NK that night.

[SpaceAnemone]

I've done pretty much a full re-read of D3 (and much of D4) this evening to try to see what openings scum would have had in the claiming exercise. Here's a summary of all the interesting info -- mostly just claim-relevant stuff and anything else that jumped out at me.

Code: [Select]

At the opening of D3, we've just seen Eevee's death and his Masonic Lover flip. Pretty soon, Galz and Faust come out as JK and 2-shot vig respectively. Their stories tie together very well, and now we've seen faust's flip, so we know he's town at least. I believe faust and Galz are the only two players to have claimed slots/draft placings before the start of the claiming process, which was ~200 posts into D3. [Update: PPS had also said he went for restless sheeper].

#2682 is a nice wifomy post from Galz about how he would have sat on his vig-read of faust had he been scum.

#2740 is a piece of logic from ash that may also be wifomy, but he seems to be scumreading Galz for changing JK targets between N1 and N2 because a town player ought to have assumed faust was a scum faction and kept jailing him, whereas in fact Galz claims to have jailed ash. It feels like an odd way for scum!ash to distance himself from a potential scum!Galz, though.. seems more like a crafted scumread to sew doubt around Galz himself.

#2847 Awaclus posts his claim order, which is
JaketheBaseballGod22
sudgy
pingpongsam
SpaceAnemone
Jimmmmm
Dylan32
2.71828......
ashersky
RoadRunner7671
iguanaiguana
LaLight
O
Awaclus

#2858: Jake: "I got the #17 draft position, and I am Not a VT"

#2867: Sudgy: "I'm a VT.  I got draft #7 and got too cocky and went for Universal Backup (because it sounded fun and could be possibly be useful)."

#2881: Space: "I had draft position #18, and I'm a VT."

#2885: Jimmmmm: "I have a few pages to catch up on (including all this claiming business. Will do tomorrow." -- this immediately gets him a wagon of faust, PPS, LL, Jake and RR. Seems like a wagon scum might want to be on; LL was, and RR is still an unknown.

#2915: Dylan: "So I'm inclined to believe the claims until we have other evidence or claims that would contradict them. However, I do know of at least one possibility of how the claims could go (other than a straight up counterclaim) that would lead me to strongly believe that someone specific is lying. I don't want to say more til after claims are done for obvious reasons." -- Did he ever go back to that? I can't recall...

#2918: Dylan "I am a VT and got draft position #8."

#2923: faust: "I shot sudgy N1 FWIW, but Galzria stopped that from being a thing."

#2938: Jimmmmm: "Non-VT" (Claimed draft position 9 at #2943 after prompting by Dylan).

#2958: e: "VT. Pretty sure we weren't supposed to claim our bid position."

#2963: ash: "Not VT. Is there consensus on when you what our number?"

#2965: RR: "VT".

#2966: iguana: "11- VT"

#2967: ash: "12"

#2968: LL: "5, VT"

#2969: O: "21, VT"

#2970: Awaclus: "10, VT"

#2991: e: "Bid order was 19. Slot I bid for was 13"

#2997: O: "Galzria and MCMC both won M19 if that's relevant. Both have already claimed though."

#2999: RR: "I was position 19 and I bid on slot 13"

#3024: Jake: "Alright so I am the Tracker. I bid on slot #12. N1 I tracked Gkrieg but he died that night. N2 I tracked Ashersky who was jailed. I'm pretty sure I have the worst luck over the last two games." -- did we ever think to check with Jake that his result was definitely consistent with ash having been jailed and not him being a good who wasn't trying to make the NK or anything? It might have helped us distinguish between strategies.

#3056: RR: "I can tell I'm gonna have to fight for my life to get 2.7 lynched then fight for my life again to convince you guys this isn't a scum mishap. I've never been counterclaimed before." -- I think this is townpoints for RR, because he seems to be expecting e to flip mafia rather than SK, which is exaclty what most of us were thinking at the time.. but I'm not sure scum!RR would think that way, and he's not even covering the possibility of e flipping town, which a scum might fear.

#3064: RR: "Would it help if I said my formidable mafia team, favorite game and townies that got me to slot 19?" -- again, I think this kind of appeal is more likely to have come from town than scum.

#3083: sudgy comfirms slot 6.

#3084: Space: "I went for slot 12."

#3094: PPS: "Way back when I revealed my role I claimed I shot straight for it in Slot 2. I was #15 in the draft position."

#3096: Dylan: "To repeat, VT, bid #8.  I bid on slot 13 and did not get it."

#3098: Galz: "Not calling your claim out here - but does anybody from top 6 really go for slot 13? Seems crazy to me."

#3108: Jimmmmm: "Well I guess enough is on the table that there's no point holding on to this. Yes, I'm the other Mason. I was actually #3 in the draft; Eevee was #9."

#3109: Jimmmmm: "Eevee also bid for Masons, so no extra info there."

#3191: TWM: "So who got slot 13? We have three people saying they tried for it, but didn't get it. If Dylan is telling the truth it has to be someone with a pick above number 8."

#3220: TWM: "I was bid order position #13 and went for slot #10."

#3234: RR: "How about we lynch e today and ashersky tomorrow?" -- possible not-wanting-a-partner-lynch? Or just hoping not to get lynched himself?

#3274: e: "I did win slot 13 and chose convert SK to survivor." and "I had to guess for a dead townies role. And I almost got away with it."

#3284: e: "I was bid order 6, slot 13"

#3289: e points out that only the SK could get the "convert SK to..." roles. I have only just realised now that that means scum had an incentive to work out who was in slot 13 because they all know that that's where the SK went, and they want rid of the SK. I feel slow! That is actually slight evidence in favour of a scum deciding that slot 13 is a relatively safe claim because the SK probably realises it's outing themselves to scum to claim it, so won't counterclaim.

#3341: mcmc: "Lalight and space feel very scummy to me. Space always feels scummy to me so not as strong as my feelings on lalight." -- lest I be accused of cherrypicking only the interesting info that makes me look good :-P

#3343: mcmc: "Oh I was draft position 4 and went for the hammer hero"

#3352: faust: "Also we probably shouldn't believe what e said about the content of slot 13." -- true, but if the sk did ge it, there are several SK-only roles that can have found their way in there with decent probability, so I still think it's likely that scum knew that the SK had that slot.

-- D4 --

#3481: Galz: "I jailed one of Ashersky, mcmc, or my highest scum read last night. I'm guessing Jake tracked me (I would in his position)"

#3455: O: "I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it."

#3472: Galz: "I jailed Ashersky last night"

#3524-3528: Little exchange between RR & LL. RR doesn't vote for the entirity of D4, so he doesn't show up on my wagons map, but he's pushing quite a lot for faust over ash.

#3560: sudgy: "Regarding iguana vs space, I have a gut townread on space, so would probably rather lynch iguana.  I'll look more into them when the decision needs to be made."
Analysis/thoughts in another post or two soon (hopefully tonight, though it appears to be way after 2am already!), but posting this in the meantime in case it helps anyone else with their thinking.

[SpaceAnemone]

Galz being alive points to either scum!Galz, or a strongman-scum being left, or a risky wifom strategy on the part of scum. If it's a strongman scum, we're probably looking for someone whose claim was a "safe" VT, i.e. someone who knew their claimed slot wasn't at risk of being counterclaimed, since they must have picked up the strongman shot at its source in slot 8.

Sudgy's claim wasn't safe at the time he made it unless he knows he went for that slot and didn't get it, because it's a really unsafe one to claim as cover for something else, because he knew at the time he claimed it that someone else had won the Masonic Lovers role, but not that they were necessarily above him in the order. So if he's scum, he bid on something in that slot and didn't get it. If he bid on strongman and won it, the safer slots to claim were things like slot 1, where he definitely knows someone above him in the order had taken it.

Dylan's case on sudgy seems to miss out all the reasoning to do with claiming order, or to do with the fact that scums needed to claim from slots that someone above them in the preference order had already taken in order to hide safely as a fake VT. As for Dylan himself, though, his claim is not really "safe", because by the time he claims, we haven't had confirmation that anyone above him on the ordering had taken slot 13.

RR went head-to-head with someone that scum!RR can't have known wasn't town, so I think that means he's telling the truth about his bidding order at least. He even seems to have picked a slot number that nobody higher in the ranking order had already claimed by the time he made his claim, so again, he didn't opt for a "safe" claim at all. I do award him a few scumpoints for having followed e and ash's lead and failing to claimed his bidding order in the first round of the claiming exercise, though.

O was very low down on Awaclus's list because of Awaclus's preexisting scumread on him, so that's actually really not helpful. His claim was totally safe because he didn't even claim his slot till D4, but even if he had claimed earlier, the particular slot he was claiming had been taken by Galz even before the claiming exercise had started.

Finally, I note that my own claim was safe by the time I made it, because Jake was above me in Awaclus's list and was also above me in the draft order, and he got the spot I'd bid on.

I need better conclusions than this, but I'm getting too tired to keep the arguments in my head straight, so that can wait till the morning.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Dylan, could you please clarify exactly what you meant by the following post from back in D3? I haven't managed to find any follow-through on it, and it seems ominous enough that I think there should have been further mention of it somewhere:

Seems like quite a bit has happened. So I'm inclined to believe the claims until we have other evidence or claims that would contradict them. However, I do know of at least one possibility of how the claims could go (other than a straight up counterclaim) that would lead me to strongly believe that someone specific is lying. I don't want to say more til after claims are done for obvious reasons.

[O]

Vote: Dylan this is L-1

Reasons:

1. Spaces claim analysis does seem to give Sudgy towncred, Sudgy's claim doesn't make perfect sense under the assumption that remaining scum is Strongman/RB
2. Original reason for Sudgy > Dylan was that a Sudgy lynch looked likelier to push through, and Galz was on it. Now it seems reasonably likely that either lynch could be pushed through and as I already stated I prefer Dylan.

[Roadrunner7671]

Get Dylan is a good plan to me.

[Dylan32]

@Dylan, could you please clarify exactly what you meant by the following post from back in D3? I haven't managed to find any follow-through on it, and it seems ominous enough that I think there should have been further mention of it somewhere:

Seems like quite a bit has happened. So I'm inclined to believe the claims until we have other evidence or claims that would contradict them. However, I do know of at least one possibility of how the claims could go (other than a straight up counterclaim) that would lead me to strongly believe that someone specific is lying. I don't want to say more til after claims are done for obvious reasons.

That was during the mass claim, and based on the slot Galz claimed and the lack of claims on the roleblocker slot, I was thinking he could have taken roleblocker and fakeclaimed jailkeeper. It is still *technically* possible, but I accepted that that probably wasn't the most likely situation, so I abandoned that train of thought. The more I thought about it after saying that, I realized there were more assumptions that had to be made than I thought initially. Later on at one point, I did say there was one other thing I wanted to check, and that was it. I went back to my note in my personal QT, but I remembered why I had been ignoring it. And anyway, if he could get it, why wouldn't scum go ahead and try for JK over roleblocker if possible. It's better for town cred and can do the same job for them.

[Dylan32]

Get Dylan is a good plan to me.

No, a good plan would be to get scum, which you won't do by getting me.

[Dylan32]

Vote: Dylan this is L-1

Reasons:

1. Spaces claim analysis does seem to give Sudgy towncred, Sudgy's claim doesn't make perfect sense under the assumption that remaining scum is Strongman/RB
2. Original reason for Sudgy > Dylan was that a Sudgy lynch looked likelier to push through, and Galz was on it. Now it seems reasonably likely that either lynch could be pushed through and as I already stated I prefer Dylan.

You ignore that right below that, Space points out that my claim wasn't safe either, so I should get the same towncred sudgy does by that logic.

[O]

Vote: Dylan this is L-1

Reasons:

1. Spaces claim analysis does seem to give Sudgy towncred, Sudgy's claim doesn't make perfect sense under the assumption that remaining scum is Strongman/RB
2. Original reason for Sudgy > Dylan was that a Sudgy lynch looked likelier to push through, and Galz was on it. Now it seems reasonably likely that either lynch could be pushed through and as I already stated I prefer Dylan.

You ignore that right below that, Space points out that my claim wasn't safe either, so I should get the same towncred sudgy does by that logic.

substantially less by the order

[Dylan32]

Vote: Dylan this is L-1

Reasons:

1. Spaces claim analysis does seem to give Sudgy towncred, Sudgy's claim doesn't make perfect sense under the assumption that remaining scum is Strongman/RB
2. Original reason for Sudgy > Dylan was that a Sudgy lynch looked likelier to push through, and Galz was on it. Now it seems reasonably likely that either lynch could be pushed through and as I already stated I prefer Dylan.

You ignore that right below that, Space points out that my claim wasn't safe either, so I should get the same towncred sudgy does by that logic.

Why doesn't his claim make sense? He claimed targeting a role in a slot that already had a role confirmed from it. Note that sudgy didn't claim the slot he targeted. Only the role. He didn't claim slot until later, which left him the flexibility to change it later if need be.

PPE 1

[Roadrunner7671]

Get Dylan is a good plan to me.

No, a good plan would be to get scum, which you won't do by getting me.

I mean, that makes some sense