I'm unconvinced by sudgy's case on faust. I'd move to sudgy if it came to it, but LL is my preferred lynch for today, I think.
My issue with sudgy is that his votes are so similar to Dylan's -- they're on all the same wagons, so I feel like in that sense they're a bit interchangeable, so I'm a bit 50-50 on them, whereas LL is a bit more individual in his play, so I feel that's kind of a clearer signal.
Here are snapshots from the first and last point at which the mcmc wagon was at 4 people on D1.
#782
LL (1): Space
e (1): Andrew
Cuzz (1): Eevee
TWM (6): JR, ash, Dylan, sudgy, e, mcmc
ash (1): iguana
mcmc (4): gkrieg, LL, Jake, TWM
sudgy (1): faust
JR (1): Galz
iguana (1): Cuzz
Awaclus (1): O
O (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (4): Calamitas, PPS, RR, Jimmmmm
#991
e (1): Andrew
TWM (3): JR, ash, mcmc
mcmc (4): gkrieg, Jake, Space, LL
sudgy (1): faust
JR (7): Galz, e, Dylan, TWM, Eevee, sudgy, iguana
iguana (1): Cuzz
Awaclus (1): O
O (1): Awaclus
Andrew (1): PPS
Not Voting (3): Calamitas, RR, Jimmmmm
Note that in the early part, Dylan and sudgy are both on TWM, and that they've both shifted to JR later on. LL is on the mcmc wagon, though he jumped away to join O on Awaclus for a while, and came back again pretty much as soon as I'd joined on mcmc -- I think that's a sign of opportunistic scum looking for a mislynch wagon.
Here's a snapshot from D2 that I don't think I've posted yet. It's at the point where the Cuz wagon has started to shrink and the Andrew wagon is taking off:
#2483
Cuzz (6): faust, sudgy, Dylan, Andrew, Space, iguana
O (1): Awaclus
Dylan (1): Galz
Andrew (6): LL, Eevee, O, RR, PPS, Jake
Space (1): Cuzz
Not Voting (5): ash, mcmc, Jimmmmm, TWM, e
I think the reason that iguana is as late as he is on Cuzz is because there's a scum earlier on there in {sudgy, Dylan} -- see how those two are together again? -- and I think LL is the most likely on-wagon scum for pushing the start of that Andrew wagon.
I hope I'm not just doing too much of a rehash of my earlier reasoning and stuff. I'd really like to hear comments from people who think my Dylan/sudgy equivalence is misguided (or accurate!), and other theories about what's going on around these points in the wagon histories...
Right now I need sleep, though!