I've just found that post from earlier in the game where someone outlined the number of ways we might expect deaths to occur:
we should expect either 3 or 4 deaths. Not 2 or 3. Why does it seem I'm the only one who acknowledges this.
SK, Vig, Mafia - where is the other "expected" death coming from? There's ways to run up the count, sure (HH, Inventor Poison, Hider, front side of Masonic getting killed, etc), but I'm not sure where you're getting the other expected death.
The HH can't have happened last night, and nor can the mason death or the SK death.
We already know that PPS was the vig death from our claimed vig. I think that's quite scummy of faust, because we're clearly not going to reach a lylo situation with PPS's sheep-vote in place now that the person he's sheeping is dead. And it's not like mcmc's death last night was unexpected once he missed the hammer :-(
That means TWM/mcmc died from the mafia faction kill plus either poison, or hiding either behind scum or possibly behind mcmc when he died. I do think TWM will have followed through on his stated algorithm, though the fact he and mcmc both died in the same night makes me wonder.
Incidentally, would the HH protection mcmc had on N2 have protected him from being poisoned that night, and dying last night? I think poison seems unlikely overall, though.