Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[sudgy]

I agree with almost everything Ash has said, as it was my exact reaction yesterday upon learning of the setup we've been handed. The counter arguments to the numbers working completely in our favor assume that each day we mislynch AND each night two town are NK'd for three consecutive days. That's 9 for 9 in town deaths which is just highly, highly unlikely.

That said, I disagree with his "lynch from the signup sheet" plan -

A) Because I'm first, am Town, and softclaim have utility that I believe will be beneficial to furthering town's chances of winning.

B) If Ash is scum and knows his partners are Sudgy and Jake, he's setting scum up to come back and win.

I would be in favor of random lynching, or lynching based off mcmc/TWM's highest scum reads or whatever.

But as of right now, given the current setup, I can't really bring myself to continue to play at the level I was. It takes a moderate amount of my time and is simply unnecessary.

(I'm not ceasing to play, but actively engaging in full rereads to scum hunt don't seem to serve much purpose)

While I don't think this sounds like defeated scum Galzria it doesn't sound like "let me make damn sure we do this right" town Galzria, either.

That's fair. It's just hard to give 110% to a game that's essentially won already.

That said - mcmc, how do you feel about dictating wagon votes?

If it takes 10 to lynch for example, and you/TWM need to be the last two, that leaves 8 people to be on the wagon first. The more scum that are on the wagon, the less likely they can steal the Hammer.

So if you round up your scum list (or yours and TWM's combined) and put them on the wagon - while not all likely to be scum you're reducing the odds (in your mind anyway) of a scum hammer steal. At least, it removes those players from being able to do so.

Obviously anybody unwilling to be on the wagon should probably be lynched instead in this case.

I don't like controlling votes.  It's not 100% that we win (although it is close), so I would like people to lynch like "normal" and just have mcmc hammer (with twm also, etc.).

[sudgy]

I got three posts written up while on the bus without internet access, so here they go:

In some of my rereading, I've been wondering: what's PSA?  I've seen people say it a lot, but I don't actually know what it means.

[sudgy]

Alright, town-reread on Eevee:

Eevee doesn't have much substance for a long time.  The first thing that seemed actually towny to me was #1118, where he talks about how he likes to be authentic and that's why he hasn't said anything.  Maybe I just like that because I try to be similar, I don't know.

Nothing really stands out, except #2012.  Before this, Eevee had a scumread on mcmc, then in this post (after the claim), he says that he "had a hunch he might be some sort of unusual pr."  Eevee, can you explain this?

That's all I got from this reread.  Most of it just seemed pretty null or made sense for town to do, but he didn't seem all that towny through it all.

[sudgy]

Now scum-reread on Eevee:

#275 seems scummy, but that's just too obvious to actually be anything.

He doesn't post reads for a while.  His first read is a townread (not wanting to lynch) on TWM in #452.  Interesting how both Eevee and Andrew seemed to be buddying TWM.

As someone else mentioned (I can't remember who), #836 could implicate the most active players as being scum if Eevee's scum.

Now that I've looked at it myself, Eevee is unusually sheepy.

Eevee mentions multiple times the fact that he is town.  I can't remember if he does that normally, but it is interesting and something that I want to stay wary of.


In the end, I'm at null-scum with Eevee too.  Nothing really sticks out in the whole thing, but there's a few things that seem fishy.

[sudgy]

Sorry, forgot to put links on that first one.

[sudgy]

Anyway, seeing ash's reactions now I would be happy voting him.  That's a lot how I would expect scum to react.  How many votes does he have?

[iguanaiguana]

I know Ash is being such a drama queen right now that it's hard to think about anyone else but I was actually asking Cuzz why he scumreads me.

Mostly I got a pretty scummy vibe from the vote on Galz, and I think there was some stuff from D1 that I can't quite remember. Plus the level of activity seems to be in the scum sweet spot.

Funny because I got a scummy vibe from the post from Galz. His tone changed remarkably toward defeat after the plan for town to win came out. Combine that with my previous scumread on him and I think he's by far our best lynch for today. If I'm wrong, at least I followed my conviction instead of letting scum manipulate my reads.

As for my level of activity, I frankly think that's a really poopy reason to vote for a person. My wife doesn't like that I play this game and that it distracts me from other things in my life, so our compromise is that I play exactly one hour a day. I make what posts I can during that time, and may occasionally be able to comment during another point in the day if it works out / if work is slow. If I could play more, I would. Sometimes I get a chance when I can put a lot of time into this without taking time away from IRL people I care about, and then I always do it.

[Awaclus]

I don't like controlling votes.  It's not 100% that we win (although it is close), so I would like people to lynch like "normal" and just have mcmc hammer (with twm also, etc.).

Close to 100% are the best odds town ever has.

[sudgy]

I don't like controlling votes.  It's not 100% that we win (although it is close), so I would like people to lynch like "normal" and just have mcmc hammer (with twm also, etc.).

Close to 100% are the best odds town ever has.

Given the choice, I'll take 99% over 98%.  Scumhunting will do that.

[pingpongsam]

The Defeated Hang Dogs
Ashersky
Galzria

The maybe actually scum based on reads
Andrew
Lalight
Eevee

The I thought this guy would commandeer the most winning of wins
faust

The who cares because they're not playing anyways
Dylan32
Jimmmmm
Jake
RoadRunner
iguana

The, well, they're not me so maybe they could be scum and well, they're playing the game so we should probably not unless we have to
Cuzz
Space (not really but reading them town but not that town)
sudgy
e
O

The townies of town reads
Awaclus
TWM
mcmcsalot
PPS
mcmc

[iguanaiguana]

I can buy that mcmc and TWM might out themselves on this plan. Assuming a 5 man mafia team, do you really think they would out 3 of them? That only leaves 1 living unidentified scum. If the plan breaks down it's high probability of total loss for scum. I'm not saying that's not exactly what they are doing but that the more people they include in the plan that are actually scum the more likely it breaks in a catastrophic way for them and thus the less likely they are to do that thing.

Actually, are we giving McMcsalot too much credibility too soon? By his own admission, McMc is obsessed with all or nothing "flawless" scum victories. Look at this:

I will look insanely scummy in order to save my partner over bussing. Look at the amount of flawless scum victories I have compared to anything else

maybe you should go back to not trying to read me. Remember mM94 where i was a scum inventor and I gave you a follow power night one and played it cool and acted towny and slowly saved my super strong hammerer invention to get the scum team a double lynch at the end of the game and surprise flawless win. Why here does scum!mcmc act like an overeager buffoon and clamer for the hammer day 1...

As you can see I was sorry. Also I don't know why people find it so scummy to name scum teams, it's not like my reads arent going to change after another set of flips. I think the one of the better ways I could scumhunt would be to analyze every combination of four players and see how they work as a unit. Obviously I don't have the time to do that so once I get some scum reads (twm/andrew/galz) I look for every connection I can to see if they fit as a unit. This may go back to how I play as scum compared to others, I typically either lose or win flawlessly and have a plan on how to act as a unit to get what we want done.

Then there is the issue of his having thought of a very complex plan, which involves interactions between multiple roles. Yes, it's possible that he thought of this on his own, but it would be easier for a team to come up with a plan like this. It was a long N0 - plenty of time for the scum team to come up with the plan of bidding for the hider box & the hammer hero box and proposing this plan to town in order to ensure their faction gets the win.

The only thing we are guaranteeing by following the plan is that McMcsalot and TWM's faction wins the game. But we still don't have any reason to think they are both town.

He can even invite investigation if the scum team can make educated guesses about what kinds of investigation exist in the game and what don't. Maybe the team also has Godfatherer. Maybe he's not actually HH (he could bluff and take "deathproof" every time) and he's investigation immune. 

I'm not saying lynch McMcsalot now but we can't take it for granted that he is town at all.

[ashersky]

Anyone who won the HH slot can claim, after he claims, if there is doubt. 

I'll do my list tomorrow, it's late here.  Expect awesomeness.

Remember, regardless of your alignment, I'm your best shot at winning.

[Cuzz]

agree with much of iguana's post above, at the level of "we should all spend some mental energy exploring this" as opposed to actually leaning scum on mcmc and/or twm.

....we could always just lynch mcmc and keep the game interesting. it's not like it's anywhere close to an auto-loss for town if we're wrong, though we would feel like total chumps. but we'll feel like chumps too if we all go along with the plan and they turn out to be scum

[pingpongsam]

The fact that not everyone, and especially certain someone's aren't making the same wild-eyed maybe it's a trap assertions quite frankly makes me think it's a done deal and Mafia is toast. Mafia knows what roles town has just not who has them right? So they know if we have a HH and Hider combo. If we do it explains the giving up from some of the stronger players.

[Cuzz]

Anyone who won the HH slot can claim, after he claims, if there is doubt. 

I'll do my list tomorrow, it's late here.  Expect awesomeness.

Remember, regardless of your alignment, I'm your best shot at winning.

Am I missing something because I feel like ash and I are playing different games

[iguanaiguana]

The who cares because they're not playing anyways
iguana

BTW, as I said to Cuzz, I AM playing this game, and I DO take offense to all of your claims that I am not playing this. Again, the days where I can sink more than an hour into playing this are inconsistent (today it is working out for me to be here for a while), but I am playing, and thinking about this game. If my most recent previous post doesn't prove that I am analyzing this thing, I don't know what does.

Please don't write me off.

[pingpongsam]

The who cares because they're not playing anyways
iguana

BTW, as I said to Cuzz, I AM playing this game, and I DO take offense to all of your claims that I am not playing this. Again, the days where I can sink more than an hour into playing this are inconsistent (today it is working out for me to be here for a while), but I am playing, and thinking about this game. If my most recent previous post doesn't prove that I am analyzing this thing, I don't know what does.

Please don't write me off.

I put you at the bottom of the list precisely because of this. The fact is, you are barely present despite your best efforts so I have no good read on you and you therefore belong in that section of the list (which is still a pretty good place to be since the higher up you go the more I want you lynched). I sympathize with your situation and appreciate any contributions you can make.

[iguanaiguana]

No worries 

[Cuzz]

The fact that not everyone, and especially certain someone's aren't making the same wild-eyed maybe it's a trap assertions quite frankly makes me think it's a done deal and Mafia is toast. Mafia knows what roles town has just not who has them right? So they know if we have a HH and Hider combo. If we do it explains the giving up from some of the stronger players.

Wait, why does mafia know what roles town has? I thought they would just know which roles were included among the random slots. And they'd know if they got outbid on certain slots, but even that doesn't give them specific roles necessarily.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Also, given no other PRs matter except mcmc and TWM, I'm no worse a mislynch than anyone else.

I am admittedly disappointed and bored with this game, so feel zero need to stick around.

Completely disagree.  Play to win, using the best options available.

How is your attitude any worse than mine? I am at least trying to play the game as intended. You are just being whiney. Play to win ash, using the best options available. That includes reads and participation.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Also I think there is something mafia could do or find to be totally right back into this. That is all I am going to say about it.

[pingpongsam]

Also I think there is something mafia could do or find to be totally right back into this. That is all I am going to say about it.

I have no doubts.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Everyone list all other players in proposed lynch order.

No thanks.

[Dylan32]

The fact that not everyone, and especially certain someone's aren't making the same wild-eyed maybe it's a trap assertions quite frankly makes me think it's a done deal and Mafia is toast. Mafia knows what roles town has just not who has them right? So they know if we have a HH and Hider combo. If we do it explains the giving up from some of the stronger players.

Wait, why does mafia know what roles town has? I thought they would just know which roles were included among the random slots. And they'd know if they got outbid on certain slots, but even that doesn't give them specific roles necessarily.

"For balance purposes, all Not-Town aligned players will be told exactly which PRs were randomly included in these slots. They will not be told which PRs, if any, were chosen."

Copy pasted from setup rather than quoting and deleting a bunch.

[sudgy]

I'm just going to throw it out there that I completely trust mcmc.  He seems like classic town!mcmc to me.  I thought he was trying a bit too hard before he claimed, but then I remembered that this is how he plays when he's a PR.