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[The_Wine_Merchant]

One thing to go back and look at is Calam. Both mcmc and I were on the slightly higher of interactions with him. But it is looking like we are town. So if you remove the two of us, what is left. I don't want to just jump to a conclusion and force it (ala sudgy) but I do wonder if there is something to be found there as I would expect Calam would have at least some interaction with partner(s).

[2.71828.....]

Reads

A lot of the time I slap reads together, but instead I’m gonna give points. You get 1 to 10 points based on scummy action, and -1 to -10 points based on towny action. Lurking counts as nothing, so that’s cool. I’ll show my work too.

Except, lurking counts as everything the way you are making these reads. The more you post, the more opportunity you have to do both townie or scummy things. LaLight only has a score that high because he is very active (and scummy according to you).

Andrew has done only scummy things.... But it was just one thing so he is 6th from the bottom.

I do like this technique of yours, now just go back and create a hyperlink to the post for each score and it would be perfect

@Roadrunner

Sorry, that was E, not O. all those vowels

Wasn't necessarily a request as much as it was a wish list. I understand if you don't have the time. That being said you are young and don't have any responsibilities (false generalization of young people) so you can totally did it.

[Roadrunner7671]

Wasn't necessarily a request as much as it was a wish list. I understand if you don't have the time. That being said you are young and don't have any responsibilities (false generalization of young people) so you can totally did it.

I'll do it but I have no clue how to hyperlink. I'm also obviously not going to do that for TWM or Mcmcsalot.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

And now we have some really good wagon analysis on my wagon, mcmc's wagon and JReggie's wagon:

J Reggie (10): 2.7128...., Dylan32, gkrieg13, LaLight, JaketheBaseballGod22, sudgy, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, The_Wine_Merchant, mcmcsalot

mcmc: e, gkrieg, LaLight, Jake, RR, TWM

TWM: J Reggie, ashersky, Dylan32, sudgy, mcmcsalot

LaLight was really the only other one that kind of took off: Galz, PPS, Eevee

sudgy was as well for a bit: faust, Eevee, TWM

Andrew, 2.7, ash, RR and Awaclus also had very small wagons.

I think I might have mixed up the orders on mine and mcmc's so don't take that for granted.

That makes me want to reassess the Lalight wagon again (Galz started it and me and someone else took it apart, perhaps unfairly?) and obviously I still feel like sudgy is likely a good lynch.

And I will openly state that I am willing to vote for anyone who didn't cast a vote yesterday:
Jimmmmm

My ideal group of looking at would include the following:
Jimmmm, 2.7, sudgy, LaLight, Dylan

[2.71828.....]

Guys, therr's a problem with mcmcsalot/TWM's plan: If we gey scum to L-1, they'll self hammer. Even if we coordinate votes, it's still possible that they'd self hammer. So I thimk we need to get them to L-2 then mcmcsalot has to come online at random, obscure timesand hope people are therr.

Coordination. Hence why we need to do it before I leave.

Also Unvote

Not true, is just that "intent to L-1" is the same as "intent to hammer" and if you are planning on putting someone at L-1 make sure mcmc is tracking

[The_Wine_Merchant]

@2.7. Why do you think you misread me this game? I feel that I played very similar to how I played in M98, although not intentionally. I think I am finding my default townie zone.

[2.71828.....]

Wasn't necessarily a request as much as it was a wish list. I understand if you don't have the time. That being said you are young and don't have any responsibilities (false generalization of young people) so you can totally did it.

I'll do it but I have no clue how to hyperlink. I'm also obviously not going to do that for TWM or Mcmcsalot.

Code: [Select]

[url=www.linkofpost.com]put words here[/url]

[ashersky]

Just to reiterate an alignment cop in twm would confirm that he is town thus also confirming he is hider and I am town hammer hero.
A rolecop on twm would at least confirm twm and I are hider/hammer hero.
A tracker/watcher/motion detector would at least confirm twm is targeting me.

Not saying any of these things need to happen, I was just going through the roles and figuring everything out for absolute confirmation.

Just catching up, posting on my way through, but...if TWM hides, he can't be copped, so you aren't making sense there.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

@RR/Jake - you two haven't interacted with each other. Unusual, yes?

[ashersky]

Okay, caught up.

Assuming all claims are true, game is cake provided we try even a little bit.

[ashersky]

20 alive...3 dead per cycle, basically 5 cycles max and the game is over finished.

I'd actually suggest protective roles take no action at night; no need.  If we treat the game as vanilla with mcmc hammering each day, we can focus on reads alone and be better off.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Or protect Awaclus

[ashersky]

Or protect Awaclus

I mean, I guess?  But it doesn't really matter.

The only way to lose is to mislynch every day and have two town kills every night until we have 2 v 3 with only mafia left, basically.  That's 3 to lynch and a 3-man mafia team still alive to control the game.

Again, as long as mcmc and TWM are telling the truth and mcmc hammers the game, it is almost impossible for us to lose.  A math person can run the probability of having no scum lynches or NKs until N4/5; I'm sure it is very low. 

There are no PRs, for any faction, that can modify that outcome.  Hence, the setup has won the game for us.  If I were the SK, I'd waive the white flag.  For mafia, it's harder since it's a team.

Either way, count me in the "disappointed" camp.  What do others think?

[Roadrunner7671]

@RR/Jake - you two haven't interacted with each other. Unusual, yes?

It's hard to interact with Jake if he barely meets the post minimum.

[O]

Or protect Awaclus

I mean, I guess?  But it doesn't really matter.

The only way to lose is to mislynch every day and have two town kills every night until we have 2 v 3 with only mafia left, basically.  That's 3 to lynch and a 3-man mafia team still alive to control the game.

Again, as long as mcmc and TWM are telling the truth and mcmc hammers the game, it is almost impossible for us to lose.  A math person can run the probability of having no scum lynches or NKs until N4/5; I'm sure it is very low. 

There are no PRs, for any faction, that can modify that outcome.  Hence, the setup has won the game for us.  If I were the SK, I'd waive the white flag.  For mafia, it's harder since it's a team.

Either way, count me in the "disappointed" camp.  What do others think?

??

2 Mafia TWM and MCMC = Mafia win, 1 Mafia TWM and MC 1 Sk/Werewolf = standoff where Mafia kingmakes between town and SK/werewolf... or just a SK win depending on how Robz interprets "stalemate"


I don't see how 3 mafia are necessary to win.

[sudgy]

I was thinking about doing a whole bunch of work to reassess my TWM read but now I don't have to!  Yay!

Realized that my wagon wasn't going to gain any traction since it was completely bogus?

It was actually because I realized a few of the things you had done that I said were scummy still fit a town narrative.  That made me think about how I feel like I do scummy things a lot as town, so I was wondering if it was the same thing for you.  I was going to reread you twice, once assuming you were town and seeing how well it fits the narrative, and once assuming you were scum.  Then I was going to see which was more plausible.

And, thinking about that, that sounds like a great idea to do for other people!  I'm going to start doing that for other people.  After I finish some other things I need to do.

[sudgy]

Okay, this is something I've been wondering for ages:

e, why in the world did you say apples at the beginning of the game?  It makes no sense!

[sudgy]

I was thinking about doing a whole bunch of work to reassess my TWM read but now I don't have to!  Yay!

Realized that my wagon wasn't going to gain any traction since it was completely bogus?

It was actually because I realized a few of the things you had done that I said were scummy still fit a town narrative.  That made me think about how I feel like I do scummy things a lot as town, so I was wondering if it was the same thing for you.  I was going to reread you twice, once assuming you were town and seeing how well it fits the narrative, and once assuming you were scum.  Then I was going to see which was more plausible.

Also, if I was scum, I think I would have stuck to tunneling you more.  I've done it before so I could just point that out as my defense if it got me in trouble.

[pingpongsam]

I am the restless sheeper in case that wasn't obvious. I am town in case that wasn't obvious. If we kill me now mcmc has double vote power and can always hammer at L-2. Just a thought. I'm not volunteering just yet because this definitely helps scum massively if this a scam from mcmc, TWM.

[pingpongsam]

I am the restless sheeper in case that wasn't obvious. I am town in case that wasn't obvious. If we kill me now mcmc has double vote power and can always hammer at L-2. Just a thought. I'm not volunteering just yet because this definitely helps scum massively if this a scam from mcmc, TWM.

On second thought intentionally killing town seems dumb. I'm less likely to get NKd if mcmc is town and I am sheeping him. Not sure about the wifom of the situation if he is lying. Seems killing me might blow the cover?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I am the restless sheeper in case that wasn't obvious. I am town in case that wasn't obvious. If we kill me now mcmc has double vote power and can always hammer at L-2. Just a thought. I'm not volunteering just yet because this definitely helps scum massively if this a scam from mcmc, TWM.

If true, then less likely there is a commuter. So that is nice for my result on Awaclus. Although I have a hard time seeing mafia 1. select commuter unless they were forced to in slot 11 and 2. unlikely they would use it Night 1 I think.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Also, inventions can be given to me. As that is apparently done during the day (the giving). But I don't think that helps for any of the plans that actually involved me coordinating with mcmc or having an investigation performed on me.

[Jimmmmm]

Uh well Unvote I guess.

[Robz888]

I am the restless sheeper in case that wasn't obvious. I am town in case that wasn't obvious. If we kill me now mcmc has double vote power and can always hammer at L-2. Just a thought. I'm not volunteering just yet because this definitely helps scum massively if this a scam from mcmc, TWM.

This seems like something I should clarify, since it involves an invented and quasi-invented PR. The Restless Sheeper, if dead, casts a default vote for whoever the RS's last sheep target is voting for. This vote is an effective double vote, but it's actually RS's vote (RS would show in the vote totals), and it follows the target's vote.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Also, if I was scum, I think I would have stuck to tunneling you more.  I've done it before so I could just point that out as my defense if it got me in trouble.

Ok. Let's look actually at that.

Post 508 is when you first vote for me. Continue on 574 and 622. You change your vote to J Reggie on post 952 (actual vote a few later to make sure about vote count), while still stating that you find me scummy.  You are putting pressure back on me on post 1047 and go back to me at 1055. You go back to J Reggie on post 1186, while still having a post be more about me than J Reggie and further talk about me during twilight in post 1228.

You start out Day 2 with a Calam read and vote on me post 1584 further that on post 1712.

So in totality, you didn't have any other read on ANYONE except me and J Reggie and the two times you votes for J Reggie you actually talked about me more.

That is the definition of tunneling. Your other posts that aren't about me are: 624 (meta game analysis, neutral), 961 (talking about how to find posts, neutral), 1020 (talking about Restless Sheeper, neutral), 1023 (talking about hammer hero, neutral), 1361 (hammer hero, neutral).

Yeah. You tunneled me the whole game. I can't see you tunneling me anymore than you did.
psuedovote: sudgy