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[Cuzz]

I'm not a big fan of the fact that LaLight supports the idea that scum were the ones responsible for "derailing" the Reggie wagon, regardless of Reggie's alignment - but when asked specifically about the 4 (only FOUR!) people to have left the wagon he doesn't have strong reads on any of them.

It feels... fabricated.

Actually. Vote: LaLight. His responses just don't ring genuine to me.

I strongly disagree. You asked for something and he gave it. They felt perfectly genuine and plausible for the third day of Day 1.

It's a correlation in my mind. In a two scenario world (Reggie is scum or town), he said:

"If A, then X"
"If B, then X"
but when asked about X, there was no relationship to A or B. In fact, two of the four people that fall into the "X" category, he had townish reads on. And the other two were only slightly scum.

I guess in my mind, if in a two scenario world A and B both lead to X, then I'm intently focusing on X - since that's the constant. Having soft feelings on X feels weird to me, and leads me to feel like he made a statement (in this case that he believed scum tried to derail the wagon on Reggie, regardless of Reggie's alignment), without following the thought process through. Hell, when O first asked who it was that "bailed", he didn't even know exactly!

I don't really remember, there were sudgy and TWM and I think someone else

Maybe I'm crazy. You seem to disagree with me here, as does faust. PPS voted LaLight. O voted and then backed off. Eevee sheeped again - that's a little weird. Does town!Eevee sheep a lot these days? I don't know. I like LaLight better than J Reggie.

Galz I'm not totally convinced. LL could still assume an expected value of at least one scum among those four without a strong scum read on anyone individually.

Hell, you were making a similar argument before when talking about scum on the wagon itself. It's just 1 in 4 now instead of 1 in 8, but 1 in 4 is close to the total scum proportion anyhow.

[Galzria]

Post Count (because, why not?):

JReggie -71
Galzria - 54
gkrieg - 97
The_Wine_Merchant - 90
Calamitas - 12
Eevee - 35
faust - 65
LaLight - 100
Awaclus - 37
SpaceAnemone - 17
2.71828..... - 41
pingpongsam - 49
Dylan32 - 29
RoadRunner - 17
iguanaiguana - 32
Jimmmmm - 11
O - 119
AndrewisFTTW - 20
Cuzz - 92
ashersky - 23
JaketheBaseballGod22 - 21
mcmcsalot - 75
sudgy - 14

[Calamitas]

Guys, I cannot follow really. Can someone give me a short version with the reasoning for all claims with all relevant evidence?
(Please tag it with @Cala). This game is just crazy.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Guys, I cannot follow really. Can someone give me a short version with the reasoning for all claims with all relevant evidence?
(Please tag it with @Cala). This game is just crazy.

@Cala.

Very few if any of the votes have any substantial reasons at all. This is the hardest game I have had getting reads that are much good at all and I am fully caught up and aware. This isn't going to change until we get some flips. But apparently we want 4 more days of it.

[Galzria]

Galz I'm not totally convinced. LL could still assume an expected value of at least one scum among those four without a strong scum read on anyone individually.

Hell, you were making a similar argument before when talking about scum on the wagon itself. It's just 1 in 4 now instead of 1 in 8, but 1 in 4 is close to the total scum proportion anyhow.

I get what you're saying, and I think it is similar... but I also think it's different. He used the four of us (Me, Sudgy, TWM, Eevee) leaving Reggie as justification for his vote ("Scum leaving a scum wagon while they can")- and I have trouble seeing that without a deeper thought process behind it. Like, how can you even say that - or think that even - without knowing who the people leaving are? And it's not like he had a crazy strong scum read on Reggie before (to my memory - please correct if wrong). Further, and this is what really stuck me, is that *even if Reggie is town, he thinks scum was leaving the wagon* - so he's got a stronger feeling on THAT aspect of things than Reggie's alignment - yet doesn't have a strong feeling on any of the four of us in particular?

[SpaceAnemone]

also I have an mpression people just ignore me most of the game. Not cool

:-P *hugs*

[Galzria]

Galz I'm not totally convinced. LL could still assume an expected value of at least one scum among those four without a strong scum read on anyone individually.

Hell, you were making a similar argument before when talking about scum on the wagon itself. It's just 1 in 4 now instead of 1 in 8, but 1 in 4 is close to the total scum proportion anyhow.

I get what you're saying, and I think it is similar... but I also think it's different. He used the four of us (Me, Sudgy, TWM, Eevee) leaving Reggie as justification for his vote ("Scum leaving a scum wagon while they can")- and I have trouble seeing that without a deeper thought process behind it. Like, how can you even say that - or think that even - without knowing who the people leaving are? And it's not like he had a crazy strong scum read on Reggie before (to my memory - please correct if wrong). Further, and this is what really stuck me, is that *even if Reggie is town, he thinks scum was leaving the wagon* - so he's got a stronger feeling on THAT aspect of things than Reggie's alignment - yet doesn't have a strong feeling on any of the four of us in particular?

I guess what I'm saying is that what really bothered me in his response, is that the two seemingly contradict each other - or at least, I would've thought that if we lynched Reggie and he flipped town, it would have LaLight re-evaluating his "scum leaving a scum wagon". But instead it would just be "scum leaving a town wagon". If he's that certain scum was leaving the wagon there, shouldn't he be looking at that very small pool of players more closely? Or have a slightly stronger opinion on them? 0r at least know who the four of us were?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Galz I'm not totally convinced. LL could still assume an expected value of at least one scum among those four without a strong scum read on anyone individually.

Hell, you were making a similar argument before when talking about scum on the wagon itself. It's just 1 in 4 now instead of 1 in 8, but 1 in 4 is close to the total scum proportion anyhow.

I get what you're saying, and I think it is similar... but I also think it's different. He used the four of us (Me, Sudgy, TWM, Eevee) leaving Reggie as justification for his vote ("Scum leaving a scum wagon while they can")- and I have trouble seeing that without a deeper thought process behind it. Like, how can you even say that - or think that even - without knowing who the people leaving are? And it's not like he had a crazy strong scum read on Reggie before (to my memory - please correct if wrong). Further, and this is what really stuck me, is that *even if Reggie is town, he thinks scum was leaving the wagon* - so he's got a stronger feeling on THAT aspect of things than Reggie's alignment - yet doesn't have a strong feeling on any of the four of us in particular?

I guess what I'm saying is that what really bothered me in his response, is that the two seemingly contradict each other - or at least, I would've thought that if we lynched Reggie and he flipped town, it would have LaLight re-evaluating his "scum leaving a scum wagon". But instead it would just be "scum leaving a town wagon". If he's that certain scum was leaving the wagon there, shouldn't he be looking at that very small pool of players more closely? Or have a slightly stronger opinion on them? 0r at least know who the four of us were?

And I guess my point is why wouldn't LaLight as scum actually fabricate a slightly stronger scum read on someone. That seems more in line with what a scum player would do. Fake a scum read on one of us (or if one of us four is scum then one that isn't his partner) and see if it goes anywhere and leads to a lynch. Here I think he was just being honest, so I think that makes him townier.

[SpaceAnemone]

Again maybe it's just me but in a game this huge I don't get why scum would be on wagon at all. Helping town lynch scum day 1 is like helping town put scum in the worst possible position they can be. Scum almost never wins when we hit scum day one. Also it's day one, none of the cases are that great so it's not like scum is going to look wierd being off wagon.

Isn't there a pretty strong chance of one scum being a sacrifice to buy townpoints for the others, given that there are so many of them? Especially one like JR, who I'm pretty sure has been caught early anyway in the past. (I'm not saying I scumread him here; I just mean that if he is a scum, it wouldn't surprise me if he was picked as the goat if such a plan was made in the pre-game discussions). Sorry not to have concrete game references to go with that... it's almost midnight here and I'm really sleepy already.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Again maybe it's just me but in a game this huge I don't get why scum would be on wagon at all. Helping town lynch scum day 1 is like helping town put scum in the worst possible position they can be. Scum almost never wins when we hit scum day one. Also it's day one, none of the cases are that great so it's not like scum is going to look wierd being off wagon.

Isn't there a pretty strong chance of one scum being a sacrifice to buy townpoints for the others, given that there are so many of them? Especially one like JR, who I'm pretty sure has been caught early anyway in the past. (I'm not saying I scumread him here; I just mean that if he is a scum, it wouldn't surprise me if he was picked as the goat if such a plan was made in the pre-game discussions). Sorry not to have concrete game references to go with that... it's almost midnight here and I'm really sleepy already.

This is going to be a long game most likely. So towncredit needs to last a while. If they bus early, and if they don't start dying off during the night because of their towncred I think that will start to be suspicious for them. Bussing, I think works in the middle of the game where you only need the towncred to last as long as the game is.

[SpaceAnemone]

And I guess my point is why wouldn't LaLight as scum actually fabricate a slightly stronger scum read on someone. That seems more in line with what a scum player would do. Fake a scum read on one of us (or if one of us four is scum then one that isn't his partner) and see if it goes anywhere and leads to a lynch. Here I think he was just being honest, so I think that makes him townier.

I agree much more with TWM's side of this: I think LL would have made something that was a total scum fabrication more watertight, and I think as town he could quite easily have missed the implication about the four wagon-leavers being more scummy than he painted them in an isolated read.

[SpaceAnemone]

This is going to be a long game most likely. So towncredit needs to last a while. If they bus early, and if they don't start dying off during the night because of their towncred I think that will start to be suspicious for them. Bussing, I think works in the middle of the game where you only need the towncred to last as long as the game is.

Isn't your argument there one of the reasons why they might manage to make early bussing count for a lot of points, though? Same with mcmc's argument before, really: statements like that inflate the towncred of anyone on a correct lynch.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

This is going to be a long game most likely. So towncredit needs to last a while. If they bus early, and if they don't start dying off during the night because of their towncred I think that will start to be suspicious for them. Bussing, I think works in the middle of the game where you only need the towncred to last as long as the game is.

Isn't your argument there one of the reasons why they might manage to make early bussing count for a lot of points, though? Same with mcmc's argument before, really: statements like that inflate the towncred of anyone on a correct lynch.

I don't think so. What I am saying here is that bussing now will have a short lifespan for me. Even if they do it despite mine and mcmc's points. Because the night kills will speak for themselves. Mafia isn't going to kill themselves. SK and other killing roles might change that a bit though, but not enough to change how I feel about it.

[Galzria]

And I guess my point is why wouldn't LaLight as scum actually fabricate a slightly stronger scum read on someone. That seems more in line with what a scum player would do. Fake a scum read on one of us (or if one of us four is scum then one that isn't his partner) and see if it goes anywhere and leads to a lynch. Here I think he was just being honest, so I think that makes him townier.

I suppose I just disagree here. With you and with a few others. I think scum in a game this size can afford to be flighty with their reads. If you recall earlier (with you and mcmc I believe? I would need to double check) there was the whole conversation about scum "stating suspicion, but letting town make the accusations". I think that's absolutely true. I think town, while uncertain of their reads, have a better grasp of WHY they feel the way they do because it's a genuine feeling. Whereas scum don't. Their reads aren't genuine to begin with, so the consequences of those reads aren't always fleshed out.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

What happened in previous large games like this? Did mafia bus and get away with it?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

And I guess my point is why wouldn't LaLight as scum actually fabricate a slightly stronger scum read on someone. That seems more in line with what a scum player would do. Fake a scum read on one of us (or if one of us four is scum then one that isn't his partner) and see if it goes anywhere and leads to a lynch. Here I think he was just being honest, so I think that makes him townier.

I suppose I just disagree here. With you and with a few others. I think scum in a game this size can afford to be flighty with their reads.

I think they could afford to as well. But if we are talking about LaLight specifically. I don't think he would do that.

[Galzria]

And I guess my point is why wouldn't LaLight as scum actually fabricate a slightly stronger scum read on someone. That seems more in line with what a scum player would do. Fake a scum read on one of us (or if one of us four is scum then one that isn't his partner) and see if it goes anywhere and leads to a lynch. Here I think he was just being honest, so I think that makes him townier.

I suppose I just disagree here. With you and with a few others. I think scum in a game this size can afford to be flighty with their reads.

I think they could afford to as well. But if we are talking about LaLight specifically. I don't think he would do that.

That may be where I'm tripping up then. Because I've never played a game with LaLight before.

[mcmcsalot]

I think the thing to decide is, who do you trust less: Lalight, or Galzria?

Cause that dude is controlling the whole game right now.

Why would anybody trust either of us? People should be making up their own minds and cases. I hate being called "controlling" in a game like this, but it's my playstyle to be engaging. I wish more people engaged at a greater level. One, I personally find it more fun and two, I think the more interactions there are the better chance town has to win.

I can confirm this is galzrias playstyle. He's a master of getting people to engage with and understand the point he is trying to make. Luckily he is also very good at analyzing and finding scum so he is a strong asset for town and a dangerously persuasive scum player. Regardless it's just galz. Currently I am of the opinion he is a town asset, mostly because we have been coming to many of the same conclusions

[mcmcsalot]

Again maybe it's just me but in a game this huge I don't get why scum would be on wagon at all. Helping town lynch scum day 1 is like helping town put scum in the worst possible position they can be. Scum almost never wins when we hit scum day one. Also it's day one, none of the cases are that great so it's not like scum is going to look wierd being off wagon.

Isn't there a pretty strong chance of one scum being a sacrifice to buy townpoints for the others, given that there are so many of them? Especially one like JR, who I'm pretty sure has been caught early anyway in the past. (I'm not saying I scumread him here; I just mean that if he is a scum, it wouldn't surprise me if he was picked as the goat if such a plan was made in the pre-game discussions). Sorry not to have concrete game references to go with that... it's almost midnight here and I'm really sleepy already.

I truly cannot speak for every scum team and so this is a probability because there appears to be at least 5 people who think bussing early for town cred is a legitimate scum plan, but I just don't think it's a good one, and not one I would ever allow my scum team to do. When scum gets lynched day 1 scum loses. It's almost always the case throughout Mafia history. By day 4 no one cares about your d1 towncred. Again just my opinion

[mcmcsalot]

Post Count (because, why not?):

JReggie -71
Galzria - 54
gkrieg - 97
The_Wine_Merchant - 90
Calamitas - 12
Eevee - 35
faust - 65
LaLight - 100
Awaclus - 37
SpaceAnemone - 17
2.71828..... - 41
pingpongsam - 49
Dylan32 - 29
RoadRunner - 17
iguanaiguana - 32
Jimmmmm - 11
O - 119
AndrewisFTTW - 20
Cuzz - 92
ashersky - 23
JaketheBaseballGod22 - 21
mcmcsalot - 75
sudgy - 14

Purely based on this it makes me not want to lynch lalight even though I think he's scummy and lynch Faust who has defended lalight quite a bit, and defended him with much worse reasoning than twm who I am town reading more as he posts. With that unvote

[J Reggie]

I see the cases on LaLight and totally understand them. However I don't see scum!LaLight going this hard after town D1.

Also I'm further convinced that mcmc is bussing. There is no reason for him to be talking this much about scum play theory of not to de-implicate himself.

[J Reggie]

Galz I'm not totally convinced. LL could still assume an expected value of at least one scum among those four without a strong scum read on anyone individually.

Hell, you were making a similar argument before when talking about scum on the wagon itself. It's just 1 in 4 now instead of 1 in 8, but 1 in 4 is close to the total scum proportion anyhow.

I get what you're saying, and I think it is similar... but I also think it's different. He used the four of us (Me, Sudgy, TWM, Eevee) leaving Reggie as justification for his vote ("Scum leaving a scum wagon while they can")- and I have trouble seeing that without a deeper thought process behind it. Like, how can you even say that - or think that even - without knowing who the people leaving are? And it's not like he had a crazy strong scum read on Reggie before (to my memory - please correct if wrong). Further, and this is what really stuck me, is that *even if Reggie is town, he thinks scum was leaving the wagon* - so he's got a stronger feeling on THAT aspect of things than Reggie's alignment - yet doesn't have a strong feeling on any of the four of us in particular?

I guess what I'm saying is that what really bothered me in his response, is that the two seemingly contradict each other - or at least, I would've thought that if we lynched Reggie and he flipped town, it would have LaLight re-evaluating his "scum leaving a scum wagon". But instead it would just be "scum leaving a town wagon". If he's that certain scum was leaving the wagon there, shouldn't he be looking at that very small pool of players more closely? Or have a slightly stronger opinion on them? 0r at least know who the four of us were?

No cryptography! vote: Galz. If you're a town PR doing this then this is just bad for us.

[J Reggie]

No, i think reggie is scum and i think in this game it's really easy for scum to destroy every wagon because there's much of them

But also there's so many of town, much more proportional to the number needed to lynch than in most games. I really think that with a good case, we have a higher chance of lynching scum D1.

[Roadrunner7671]

Galz I'm not totally convinced. LL could still assume an expected value of at least one scum among those four without a strong scum read on anyone individually.

Hell, you were making a similar argument before when talking about scum on the wagon itself. It's just 1 in 4 now instead of 1 in 8, but 1 in 4 is close to the total scum proportion anyhow.

I get what you're saying, and I think it is similar... but I also think it's different. He used the four of us (Me, Sudgy, TWM, Eevee) leaving Reggie as justification for his vote ("Scum leaving a scum wagon while they can")- and I have trouble seeing that without a deeper thought process behind it. Like, how can you even say that - or think that even - without knowing who the people leaving are? And it's not like he had a crazy strong scum read on Reggie before (to my memory - please correct if wrong). Further, and this is what really stuck me, is that *even if Reggie is town, he thinks scum was leaving the wagon* - so he's got a stronger feeling on THAT aspect of things than Reggie's alignment - yet doesn't have a strong feeling on any of the four of us in particular?

I guess what I'm saying is that what really bothered me in his response, is that the two seemingly contradict each other - or at least, I would've thought that if we lynched Reggie and he flipped town, it would have LaLight re-evaluating his "scum leaving a scum wagon". But instead it would just be "scum leaving a town wagon". If he's that certain scum was leaving the wagon there, shouldn't he be looking at that very small pool of players more closely? Or have a slightly stronger opinion on them? 0r at least know who the four of us were?

No cryptography! vote: Galz. If you're a town PR doing this then this is just bad for us.

I'm struggling to even read the entire thread and you're reading into things like this.

I'd be okay with a mcmcsalot wagon honestly. Vote: mcmcsaot

[J Reggie]

But I'm serious. I want Galz to say a reason for typing a zero instead of an o, which is not something that happens accidentally, or else there might have to be some mod action.