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[iguanaiguana]

Someone asked for a J Reggie case in a nutshell. Here's mine:

I don't think his early RVS comments on Gkrieg/PPS really mean much. J Reggie always does things like that to get the ball rolling, like basically he wants the first serious votes to be on him regardless of alignment.

vote: The_Wine_Merchant

Serious vote.

First scummy post from J Reggie. Both jumping on the easy lynchbait wagon and the need to point out that his vote is serious.

I don't think I'm gonna read all this. I also think that posting a whole bunch is very scummy.

FOS: RR. Scum Is less likely to want to read the whole thread because they have fewer real reads to make.

Another attack on known lynchbait with a poor stated reason for suspicion. 

The problem with specifically lynching anti-town is it's such a good excuse for scum. And a scum jumping on one of those wagons is nearly identical to a town jumping on one. So it doesn't matter if the anti-town player was scum or not, we get nothing alignment-indicative from the interactions.

In light of what he's done so far in the game, I can actually see this as self-conscious commenting about what he's doing.

So I'm at L-3 right now which is kind of bigger than it sounds with this many people.  If I get to L-1, then:
don't hammer me, I have a plan.

Someone else pointed this out already but I've definitely seen scum!reggie make this kind of gambit and don't know that I've seen town!reggie do it. So no this does not make me trust him.

Honestly, a lot of my read amounts to the fact that J Reggie has spent most of his energy trying to get TWM lynched and I disagree with the case and think it looks bad. I do think that J Reggie looks scummier in the way he pushed TWM than, say, McMcsalot.

[Cuzz]

Galz
O
faust
pps
Eevee

Is this more than "people I played with before, plus faust"?

Tbh there is likely some bias towards that, although I'm not sure if I ever played with pps, and I barely overlapped with O. Also, Jimmmm and ashersky are definitely not on that list, though, and I played with them a bunch.

Really though it's people I feel have contributed the most truly helpful discussion so far (plus Eevee who maybe shouldn't really be on there, but who always reads town to me).

Others have contributed stuff (mcmc, gkrieg, JReggie, TWM) but it reads to me mostly as so many pages of the "you're scummy" "no, you're scummy" back and forth that I find tedious.

[J Reggie]

I can't argue with the fact that my TWM case was bad. I could have been much more eloquent and concise, especially later on. But it's such a big game and hard to go back and reference the right posts.

[SpaceAnemone]

The cool thing is that scum probably went for scum-beneficial PRs, so if there's a clear towny PR in a slot we know they must have selected, and they can't prove they have that PR, we've got them cornered.

Relevant anecdote: When the predecessor of this setup was run, mafia!ashersky went for the role "Mafia Cop" over some other role in the same slot that would have benefitted their team more because he felt that he had to choose the thing a townie would choose.

Also this made him a Mafia Mafia Cop, so maybe he was just being hilarious.

Hehe :-) Which other players do you think would play like that, of this set, if they drew mafia? Is it enough that we ought to assume they're taking the safe strategy by default?

This is a function of the slot options, the player, the slots of the partners, and the identity of the partners. I don't feel that I can make any statement about it that actually means anything.

I was thinking more along the lines of estimate how many of these players we might have -> estimate likelihood of scum team containing at least one of them -> estimate preparedness of scumteam for that sort of tactic.

Though actually, the scum team is big enough that even if they had one such person, that one voice might not be enough to make them all prepared, especially if there are one or more strong-willed vets in the team who don't like that sort of overly-analytical play. That might be a bonus for town.

[faust]

The cool thing is that scum probably went for scum-beneficial PRs, so if there's a clear towny PR in a slot we know they must have selected, and they can't prove they have that PR, we've got them cornered.

Relevant anecdote: When the predecessor of this setup was run, mafia!ashersky went for the role "Mafia Cop" over some other role in the same slot that would have benefitted their team more because he felt that he had to choose the thing a townie would choose.

Also this made him a Mafia Mafia Cop, so maybe he was just being hilarious.

Hehe :-) Which other players do you think would play like that, of this set, if they drew mafia? Is it enough that we ought to assume they're taking the safe strategy by default?

This is a function of the slot options, the player, the slots of the partners, and the identity of the partners. I don't feel that I can make any statement about it that actually means anything.

I was thinking more along the lines of estimate how many of these players we might have -> estimate likelihood of scum team containing at least one of them -> estimate preparedness of scumteam for that sort of tactic.

Though actually, the scum team is big enough that even if they had one such person, that one voice might not be enough to make them all prepared, especially if there are one or more strong-willed vets in the team who don't like that sort of overly-analytical play. That might be a bonus for town.

I am having my doubts about this leading anywhere.

[Eevee]

I'm kind of torn, because reading the setup wizards trying to analyze the draft is very interesting to me, but I'm doubtful if we can find any conclusions that are more beneficial than the accidental revealing stuff for scum would be. Like, I doubt we could find anything super useful for certain, but I could easily see an important PR being outed. Is the juice worth the squeeze?

[faust]

I'm kind of torn, because reading the setup wizards trying to analyze the draft is very interesting to me, but I'm doubtful if we can find any conclusions that are more beneficial than the accidental revealing stuff for scum would be. Like, I doubt we could find anything super useful for certain, but I could easily see an important PR being outed. Is the juice worth the squeeze?

If you wish to do something helpful, how about answering my question about your Andrew vote?

[mcmcsalot]

Caught up and not much has happened since last evening. Faust is definitely a town read for me, would not consider lynching him for awhile. Galz/ash/cuzz continue to be strong town reads as well.

I'm torn because I really like the cases that have been made on jreggie but I also like mine as well as others cases on twm. But I highly doubt they are both scum. They could be both town but if that's the case I'm not sure why twm's wagon stalls and moves to a jreggie wagon. I need to go back and look at how those wagons rose and fell vote wise and see who of those voters I find towny.

As for the votes on me. I'm still not sure what exactly lalight thinks I flipped on about twm and why he is voting for me. Space I think your forgetting that you also voted me because you think I was trying to call you out and demanding you explain yourself for your ash(?) vote. I want to reiterate I merely looked at the vote count and was looking for ways to consolidate votes into more wagons so we could have more info. That is why I asked what your reasons for your vote were, hoping it would prompt you to either make a case that others could join(wagon) or move to a wagon that was existing.

[Eevee]

I'm kind of torn, because reading the setup wizards trying to analyze the draft is very interesting to me, but I'm doubtful if we can find any conclusions that are more beneficial than the accidental revealing stuff for scum would be. Like, I doubt we could find anything super useful for certain, but I could easily see an important PR being outed. Is the juice worth the squeeze?

If you wish to do something helpful, how about answering my question about your Andrew vote?

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive, Andrew has been less controversial and visible than I'd expect, and hasn't posted anything that made me think "that's towny". I don't really have a any case to post I would expect others to follow, but I think someone like Andrew would be our best bet for hitting scum.

Of the viable wagons, I guess I like Reggie the best.

I must admit, I don't have the patience for trying to create "real" day 1 cases, because they feel like such guesswork. I'd be happy to sheep one if someone created one I fancy (like I initially did with J Reggie).

[Eevee]

Other people I could see myself interested in voting for today:

Space, Dylan, PPS, ash, jake, sudgy, Awaclus, Calamitas, e, LL (like half the game, shows how much confidence I have in my reads right now).

"Good" thing is, we are probably looking at multiple flips before tomorrow, so the picture should start to get clearer.

[Cuzz]

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive,

I do not understand why people, if they are town, talk like this. It's so utterly nonspecific and unhelpful. If that sentence has any content whatsoever, it's left entirely unsaid for some incomprehensible reason:

Which wagons do you consider the bigger ones?
Of those, which ones do you dislike?
Who do you consider the top posters among them?

ppe: one

[The_Wine_Merchant]

"Good" thing is, we are probably looking at multiple flips before tomorrow, so the picture should start to get clearer.

This is a good point and makes me more suspicious of people who are being extremely close vested with their votes (RR jumps immediately to mind).

[faust]

Eevee, if you join me on sudgy, I would be ever so happy.

[faust]

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive,

I do not understand why people, if they are town, talk like this. It's so utterly nonspecific and unhelpful. If that sentence has any content whatsoever, it's left entirely unsaid for some incomprehensible reason:

Which wagons do you consider the bigger ones?
Of those, which ones do you dislike?
Who do you consider the top posters among them?

ppe: one

I feel you. There was a game a short time ago where Eevee was basically IC due to claims, but still he was so hedgy and unspecific that I repeatedly questioned if there wasn't a way he could still be scum (he was, in fact, town). That's not to say he is scum here, but I'm afraid it is not a scum tell.

[gkrieg13]

Vote Count 1.9

mcmcsalot (3): JaketheBaseballGod22, SpaceAnemone, LaLight
J Reggie (6): Galzria, 2.7128...., Dylan32, The_Wine_Merchant, iguanaiguana, gkrieg13
The_Wine_Merchant (4): J Reggie, ashersky, mcmcsalot, sudgy
Awaclus (1): O
sudgy (1): faust
O (1): Awaclus
iguanaiguana (1): Cuzz
AndrewisFTTW (2): pingpongsam, Eevee
gkrieg13 (1): AndrewisFTTW

Not Voting (3): Calamitas, RoadRunner7671, Jimmmmm,

With 23 alive it takes just 10 to lynch. Day 1 ends on Tuesday, May 23, at 10:00 AM Forum Time.

People who are voting mcmc/Andrew: what's up with that?

Cuzz: Do you think your vote is in the best possible place right now?

People on the J Reggie wagon:
a) Can you outline how your read on J Reggie evolved over the course of the game so far?
b) Who of your fellow wagoners do you think has the highest chance of flipping scum?

Well my read on J Reggie all came from his (I have a plan to claim at L-1) thing, which I thought was super scummy.

I townread everyone on his wagon except for Dylan, so he has the highest chance of flipping scum.

Do you think your vote is in the best place right now?

[Eevee]

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive,

I do not understand why people, if they are town, talk like this. It's so utterly nonspecific and unhelpful. If that sentence has any content whatsoever, it's left entirely unsaid for some incomprehensible reason:

Which wagons do you consider the bigger ones?
Of those, which ones do you dislike?
Who do you consider the top posters among them?

ppe: one

I was thinking of TWM and mcmc (and the sporadical pushes at gkrieg). I don't have a townread on any of them per se (maybe a light on gkrieg, and that's totally a gut feeling), but I also don't think they'd make the most productive lynches for today.

(Forgot RR from my list in the last post.)

I'll reread sudgy to see if I can make faust happy.

[gkrieg13]

People who are voting mcmc/Andrew: what's up with that?

I posted my reasoning at #974, but I'm not at all confident in any reads yet :-(

This really sounds like town!Space to me.

[gkrieg13]

Question for faust: in RMM37, which you modded, I had what I thought was a really workable strategy about claiming the order of our night actions, because the question of who had precedence was quite important when looking at the things that had happened. Do you think it's really obvious in this game that claiming the bidding order would be a bad thing overall (clearly it's bad for particular players/roles in isolation), or is there a case to be made for it along similar lines? Cal, I'd also be interested in your personal conclusion on this! Feel free to respond in non-specific ways; I'm more interested in knowing that you've thought the possibility through than seeing all your working in-thread for now.

I think eventually knowing the order will be very useful to town, as it might give us a little bit of insight.  We can also then see the likelihood of people's claims later on (like if someone at order #5 claims VT, that probably isn't all that likely).

[Eevee]

I'm sorry, it maybe would be best to feign fake confidence in my reads, but that's very unnatural for me. Being authentic and posting my thoughts unfiltered has sometimes helped me establish my towniness in the eyes of the rest of the town, so that's something.

[faust]

Do you think your vote is in the best place right now?

Yes.

[Eevee]

Vote: sudgy

As I said earlier, I just pushed the "looks like scum caught for the wrong reasons" argument as scum myself, good enough for me.

[gkrieg13]

My townies are currently:

TWM
e
faust
ash (for now)
J Reggie

Added here are:

Awaclus
iguana
Space
Cuzz
galz

[gkrieg13]

Here are sudgy's posts (minus a few unimportant ones) for anyone that would like to reread him.  Conclusions in the next post.

I finally caught up!  (during my chemistry class, hope that won't bite me in the butt)

Anyway, Vote: The_Wine_Merchant.  I don't like some of his setup speculation at the beginning.  I feel like he was trying to breadcrumb too much in it all (for possible fakeclaims in the future), and I feel like he's been reacting to the votes in a scummy way.  It feels like scum feeling caught for the wrong reasons.

mcmc did something townie. I don't remember what it was. Oh wait. I liked that he said we should take notes (maybe if I had taken notes I would have remembered that easier). Sure anyone can suggest it for towncred, I acknowledge that but he gets towncred anyway.

So, vote: sudgy

I'll sheep faust

Great OMGUS.

It feels like scum feeling caught for the wrong reasons.

In my limited experience this is a shitty justification to vote for someone. Too many feels in there. You feel that I feel that they feel. Never really works out that way.

I've seen scum (including myself) caught by this very thing, so I think it's a very valid case to be made.

I don't get why OMGUS is such a bad thing. I have had good results from it.

And caught for the wrong reasons doesn't work. I mean, sure it can happen. But you can't rely on it. It is a fluke. How do you differentiate between scum caught for the wrong reasons and town being suspected for the wrong, or bad, reasons?

Show me that and give a rationale for it that can actually mean something and I'll give you the time of day. Until then it is just a bad justification for what is often a lazy vote to begin with.

It's usually way worse to scum for a scum player to die than to town for a town player to die.  So, scum will usually have a greater will to live than town.  Then, on top of it all, if you did nothing wrong and everybody hates you, of course you get frustrated.  Sure, town will get frustrated too, but not nearly as much as scum does.

Anyway, I think that any setup speculation is useless D1.  We don't have any information and can't really figure out anything because of that.  The only thing we get is possibly outed PRs.

I think most reactions are more based in "i'd like to keep playing this game", rather than "it's bad for me to die as scum" vs. "it's slightly less bad for me to die as town".

I'd like to keep playing, but I definitely would want to keep playing more as scum than as town.

sudgy has exactly 1 post.

I have four posts.  Five now.  I also explained that I'm really busy.

Anyway, Vote: J Reggie (this will turn into an actual vote when the vote count comes and I see how many votes he has).  I like Galzria's case on him, and I noticed that Reggie only replied to like two of Galzria's points.  That's a great way to make it seem like you've refuted a case when you actually haven't.

I still think TWM is scummy.

Regarding mcmc, I seem to remember him seeming really scummy when he's town and then really towny when he's scum.  However, this was years ago and might have changed.  To anybody who's played with him recently, is this still how he seems?

I gotta go write a lab report now, bye.

Vote: J Reggie as promised

Unvote don't want to get too close to ending day.

Vote: The_Wine_Merchant that was way too fast

[gkrieg13]

His first post with his reasoning for voting TWM seem like town reasons that are trying to try.  It isn't a good case (because really what could you breadcrumb in this setup), but it does look genuine.

I really don't see the case here.

[gkrieg13]

Also, where is Jake?  This seems very uncharacteristic of him.