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[AndrewisFTTW]

647:

mcmc is still scum read #1 for me, but a lynch pool of the three people off wagon makes sense to me too.

I am only a slight scum read. (woah, my iPad just autocorrected too mcmcsalot instead of the other way around) is a number one scum read. But I am getting the vote.

This is what I was talking about.

Vote: andrew

I was voting you at the time because I was under the impression we were only voting off wagon. I much preferred mcmc.

655:

There is no set rule that we have to lynch off wagon. I can understand why that might be an idea to at least look at, but you are taking it as a rule.

There are 10 players alive. 3 that were off wagon and 7 that were on. I personally think it somewhat unlikely that more than one mafia was off wagon (from my perspective that would mean it would have to be Dylan and IDPTG, which certainly could be possible, but I think rather unlikely). So that is a 1/3 (0.33) chance (1/2 of two from my perspective, but I think it makes more sense to look at it from a strictly neutral position when trying to do these numbers) at best as there is still a decent chance the number of scum off wagon is zero.

As for on wagon it is likely either 3/7 (0.42) or 2/7 (0.28) that are mafia. So I don't think a rule to have to lynch off wagon today is worth ignoring "strong scum reads" as I think that is potentially what mafia is trying to do. Push a lynch onto an area where there are zero or one mafia and safely ignore the area where there is likely to be a higher number on wagon.

This isn't a case on me.

829:

I wouldn't call you any of those terms, and I agree that even if I felt that way about them, they wouldn't necessarily be scummy.

What I meant, and what I should have been more clear about above, was how you have felt compelled to respond to every point about you. It seems like you are giving more credence to every remark about you, which is precisely how I felt when I was last scum. I feel like town lets things slide off their back more often whereas scum is hyper aware and feels like any suspicion could escalate, so you need to put the damper on it quick. Last game mcmc pointed out I was doing it in the scum QT and it was still really hard to check myself.

That's a fair point, but what I would say to that is it's not really an alignment tell for me. I like discussion and asking questions and seeing what answers I get, and I like debate. Not every response is a defense although I do feel obligated to defend myself sometimes, maybe more often than other people.

You can take it from WW, we played some games together a couple years ago and we had a couple intense arguments.

I remember Andrew as being more argumentative.  He has appealed to that argumentative meta regarding him defending his wagon, but it really didn't feel like he was defending that hard.  Some discussion with McMc and someone else I think, but it never really escalated.

So yeah, I understand we're you're coming from but I think that's just because you've never played a game with me before.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

For the first two, the idea that I had was that you were using the idea of lynching off wagon as a rule to manipulate the lynch toward me/Dylan/IDPTG. That you were willing to go that route even over your scum read of mcmc showed that you cared more about lynching in a certain area than actually lynching scum.

"So I don't think a rule to have to lynch off wagon today is worth ignoring "strong scum reads" as I think that is potentially what mafia is trying to do. Push a lynch onto an area where there are zero or one mafia and safely ignore the area where there is likely to be a higher number on wagon."

Basically you were doing exactly what I hypothesized. Lynching in an area where there was town and have as a back-up the area where there actually was mafia, but not want to go for those people either.

[AndrewisFTTW]

yeah, that pps theory doesn't fly at all. the only other two wagons around at that time were both confirmed townies: mcmc and dylan. The previous vote count to that had small wagons on eevee, another townie (IDPTG) and PPS himself. But those were all at 1 vote.

So yeah, that doesn't make sense. For PPS to be scum, both partners had to already be on the wagon. And he had to feel that he could take the pressure of doing a quick hammer on a townie with no immediate benefit to his team. So he could still have done it, but I don't see a reason for him to do it. I think scum generally needs to have reasons to do things.

In response to the bolded part, says who? I can easily see all three scum being on Joseph's wagon if only because it's not what town would expect. You saw how quickly a couple people did the "hey let's lynch off wagon" thing D2 which implies without any knowledge everyone just assumed there was at least one scum off wagon. But we don't really know that for sure. The benefit of pps quickhammering benefits scum because 1) it was a mislynch, obviously and 2) here we are D3 and a lot of people have written off the quickhammer as obv!town, taking attention off of pps for the most part. I could see scum!pps perfectly willing to risk something like this.

For the first two, the idea that I had was that you were using the idea of lynching off wagon as a rule to manipulate the lynch toward me/Dylan/IDPTG. That you were willing to go that route even over your scum read of mcmc showed that you cared more about lynching in a certain area than actually lynching scum.

I was only willing to go that route because nobody except maybe Dylan wanted to lynch mcmc. If there were a couple more people who thought mcmc looked scummy coming out of D1 I would've said eff that, let's lynch mcmc! And besides, I thought it was a decent idea.

"So I don't think a rule to have to lynch off wagon today is worth ignoring "strong scum reads" as I think that is potentially what mafia is trying to do. Push a lynch onto an area where there are zero or one mafia and safely ignore the area where there is likely to be a higher number on wagon."

Basically you were doing exactly what I hypothesized. Lynching in an area where there was town and have as a back-up the area where there actually was mafia, but not want to go for those people either.

Do you expect me to be totally stubborn and unwilling to lynch someone who isn't my top scum read? Because that's... kinda how I acted in this game, thinking about it. Probably not the most pro-town play but I was pretty confident in my mcmc read. Anyway, scum is perfectly content to sit back and let town mislynch for them. I thought it was likely there was at least one scum off wagon and there might still be with IDPTG an IC and Dylan conf!town. But I find pps scummier at the moment.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Alright, if I die in the night follow up with another post count and put all the lynch wagons next to eachother with alignments(don't include you own)

Who are you talking to and what are you saying?

Talking to town, the two games I was scum I was like only person to do repost the lynch wagons so we could look at them all next to eachother and no one did post counts(I wasn't going to as scum). So if I die I want a towny to do those two things.

I'm confident you'll still be alive and you'll be the one doing this. No towncred from me for it though.

What made you think that he'd still be alive?

@Everyone- did mcmc seem like a PR D1?

[AndrewisFTTW]

Alright, if I die in the night follow up with another post count and put all the lynch wagons next to eachother with alignments(don't include you own)

Who are you talking to and what are you saying?

Talking to town, the two games I was scum I was like only person to do repost the lynch wagons so we could look at them all next to eachother and no one did post counts(I wasn't going to as scum). So if I die I want a towny to do those two things.

I'm confident you'll still be alive and you'll be the one doing this. No towncred from me for it though.

What made you think that he'd still be alive?

@Everyone- did mcmc seem like a PR D1?

I was confident he was scum.

[schadd]

@Everyone- did mcmc seem like a PR D1?

typically PRs will be quiet D1, as they don't benefit as much from being townread. mcmc was very loud d1 in this game. sort of relevant, he was also really loud/active in M94 in a way that i could have pegged him scum for in M94 if i were still alive, and tried to point out D1 (he didn't claim D1 & claimed inventor later, but played super vt)


i think i know why you are asking

[The_Wine_Merchant]

yeah, that pps theory doesn't fly at all. the only other two wagons around at that time were both confirmed townies: mcmc and dylan. The previous vote count to that had small wagons on eevee, another townie (IDPTG) and PPS himself. But those were all at 1 vote.

So yeah, that doesn't make sense. For PPS to be scum, both partners had to already be on the wagon. And he had to feel that he could take the pressure of doing a quick hammer on a townie with no immediate benefit to his team. So he could still have done it, but I don't see a reason for him to do it. I think scum generally needs to have reasons to do things.

In response to the bolded part, says who?

Because the only players who weren't on wagon are dead and town except for IDPTG (UB) and me (I know I am town). So if PPS is mafia his partners had to already be voting, at least from my perspective. If you disagree then that means you must think I am mafia.

Maybe that makes PPS more like to be mafia then? Cause if he is town that means all three mafia had to be on the wagon before him hammering. I guess that is still possible, just means it is more likely a specific strategy thought up during the night.

[schadd]

robz i'm also going to say is just town, for reasons i said earlier, with more elaboration later (taking a test l0l)

so, like i said, robz is very reminiscent of the townie side of lurkers. additionally, i think that it's especially town given robz's context: he's had, like, really good results in the last bunch of games he's been scum (including one briefly concurrent with this game), and got lynched D2 in M94 where he was on the lurky side. additionally, if he decided to lurk to earn towncred given his scumplay, supposedly he's pulled that before, and he decided to do it again in a game with, uh, 6 other vets who have probably seen it back in the day (ww definitely has). that's a super risky and silly wifom play that just isn't the kind of thing that he does.


he's also just been doing his town stuff (actilurking when he's around, hedging, using impersonal reads for people. yes, you read that right).


robz gets the schaddbrand TownClear^TM

[AndrewisFTTW]

yeah, that pps theory doesn't fly at all. the only other two wagons around at that time were both confirmed townies: mcmc and dylan. The previous vote count to that had small wagons on eevee, another townie (IDPTG) and PPS himself. But those were all at 1 vote.

So yeah, that doesn't make sense. For PPS to be scum, both partners had to already be on the wagon. And he had to feel that he could take the pressure of doing a quick hammer on a townie with no immediate benefit to his team. So he could still have done it, but I don't see a reason for him to do it. I think scum generally needs to have reasons to do things.

In response to the bolded part, says who?

Because the only players who weren't on wagon are dead and town except for IDPTG (UB) and me (I know I am town). So if PPS is mafia his partners had to already be voting, at least from my perspective. If you disagree then that means you must think I am mafia.

Maybe that makes PPS more like to be mafia then? Cause if he is town that means all three mafia had to be on the wagon before him hammering. I guess that is still possible, just means it is more likely a specific strategy thought up during the night.

I see what you mean but I posed that as a general question. Not sure why I interpreted it the way I did. I mean I still think you're somewhat scummy so to me there's the possibility that you are the scum off wagon but it's also possible that two were already on and pps, being the third, quickhammered because he anticipated town would look off wagon at least a little bit. I mean I think it makes sense and would definitely be a strategy I would go along with as scum. I don't see why pps wouldn't put it into action.

[pingpongsam]

robz i'm also going to say is just town, for reasons i said earlier, with more elaboration later (taking a test l0l)

so, like i said, robz is very reminiscent of the townie side of lurkers. additionally, i think that it's especially town given robz's context: he's had, like, really good results in the last bunch of games he's been scum (including one briefly concurrent with this game), and got lynched D2 in M94 where he was on the lurky side. additionally, if he decided to lurk to earn towncred given his scumplay, supposedly he's pulled that before, and he decided to do it again in a game with, uh, 6 other vets who have probably seen it back in the day (ww definitely has). that's a super risky and silly wifom play that just isn't the kind of thing that he does.


he's also just been doing his town stuff (actilurking when he's around, hedging, using impersonal reads for people. yes, you read that right).


robz gets the schaddbrand TownClear^TM

See, if you were scum and i was you I would never, ever do this if Robz was also scum and I knew it because I am you and you are scum.

[pingpongsam]

robz i'm also going to say is just town, for reasons i said earlier, with more elaboration later (taking a test l0l)

so, like i said, robz is very reminiscent of the townie side of lurkers. additionally, i think that it's especially town given robz's context: he's had, like, really good results in the last bunch of games he's been scum (including one briefly concurrent with this game), and got lynched D2 in M94 where he was on the lurky side. additionally, if he decided to lurk to earn towncred given his scumplay, supposedly he's pulled that before, and he decided to do it again in a game with, uh, 6 other vets who have probably seen it back in the day (ww definitely has). that's a super risky and silly wifom play that just isn't the kind of thing that he does.


he's also just been doing his town stuff (actilurking when he's around, hedging, using impersonal reads for people. yes, you read that right).


robz gets the schaddbrand TownClear^TM

See, if you were scum and i was you I would never, ever do this if Robz was also scum and I knew it because I am you and you are scum.

I have this issue with looking at people's play through the lens of how I would do it when nobody does it like me at all except maybe ashersky.

[pingpongsam]

yeah, that pps theory doesn't fly at all. the only other two wagons around at that time were both confirmed townies: mcmc and dylan. The previous vote count to that had small wagons on eevee, another townie (IDPTG) and PPS himself. But those were all at 1 vote.

So yeah, that doesn't make sense. For PPS to be scum, both partners had to already be on the wagon. And he had to feel that he could take the pressure of doing a quick hammer on a townie with no immediate benefit to his team. So he could still have done it, but I don't see a reason for him to do it. I think scum generally needs to have reasons to do things.

In response to the bolded part, says who?

Because the only players who weren't on wagon are dead and town except for IDPTG (UB) and me (I know I am town). So if PPS is mafia his partners had to already be voting, at least from my perspective. If you disagree then that means you must think I am mafia.

Maybe that makes PPS more like to be mafia then? Cause if he is town that means all three mafia had to be on the wagon before him hammering. I guess that is still possible, just means it is more likely a specific strategy thought up during the night.

I see what you mean but I posed that as a general question. Not sure why I interpreted it the way I did. I mean I still think you're somewhat scummy so to me there's the possibility that you are the scum off wagon but it's also possible that two were already on and pps, being the third, quickhammered because he anticipated town would look off wagon at least a little bit. I mean I think it makes sense and would definitely be a strategy I would go along with as scum. I don't see why pps wouldn't put it into action.

This is what we call tunneling. Tie me to my scum partners if you think you really have a case on me.

[AndrewisFTTW]

yeah, that pps theory doesn't fly at all. the only other two wagons around at that time were both confirmed townies: mcmc and dylan. The previous vote count to that had small wagons on eevee, another townie (IDPTG) and PPS himself. But those were all at 1 vote.

So yeah, that doesn't make sense. For PPS to be scum, both partners had to already be on the wagon. And he had to feel that he could take the pressure of doing a quick hammer on a townie with no immediate benefit to his team. So he could still have done it, but I don't see a reason for him to do it. I think scum generally needs to have reasons to do things.

In response to the bolded part, says who?

Because the only players who weren't on wagon are dead and town except for IDPTG (UB) and me (I know I am town). So if PPS is mafia his partners had to already be voting, at least from my perspective. If you disagree then that means you must think I am mafia.

Maybe that makes PPS more like to be mafia then? Cause if he is town that means all three mafia had to be on the wagon before him hammering. I guess that is still possible, just means it is more likely a specific strategy thought up during the night.

I see what you mean but I posed that as a general question. Not sure why I interpreted it the way I did. I mean I still think you're somewhat scummy so to me there's the possibility that you are the scum off wagon but it's also possible that two were already on and pps, being the third, quickhammered because he anticipated town would look off wagon at least a little bit. I mean I think it makes sense and would definitely be a strategy I would go along with as scum. I don't see why pps wouldn't put it into action.

This is what we call tunneling. Tie me to my scum partners if you think you really have a case on me.

Ok. Who are your partners?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

@Everyone- did mcmc seem like a PR D1?

No. I didn't think so.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

@Everyone- did mcmc seem like a PR D1?

No. I didn't think so.

Or rather I should say, that I didn't really have an opinion on whether he was or not.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

i think i know why you are asking

You're probably right. Do you agree?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Do you expect me to be totally stubborn and unwilling to lynch someone who isn't my top scum read? Because that's... kinda how I acted in this game, thinking about it. Probably not the most pro-town play but I was pretty confident in my mcmc read.

I feel like my words are being twisted. I wanted others to vote for the players they thought were the scummiest (being stubborn about one player is rarely a really good move unless you are really, really sure). Instead some people were voting based off speculative categories rather than looking at scummy or not. I felt like that was a scum tactic and I felt like you were doing it more than the rest.

[schadd]

i think i know why you are asking

You're probably right. Do you agree?

i do. unless i'm secretly agreeing with the opposite of the thing. also consider ww (though i don't think he seemed especially PR either)

[AndrewisFTTW]

Do you expect me to be totally stubborn and unwilling to lynch someone who isn't my top scum read? Because that's... kinda how I acted in this game, thinking about it. Probably not the most pro-town play but I was pretty confident in my mcmc read.

I feel like my words are being twisted. I wanted others to vote for the players they thought were the scummiest (being stubborn about one player is rarely a really good move unless you are really, really sure). Instead some people were voting based off speculative categories rather than looking at scummy or not. I felt like that was a scum tactic and I felt like you were doing it more than the rest.

I mean I just felt compelled to do rereads but other than that I don't think I was any more committed than anyone else.

[Eevee]

ww i'm just going to say is town, cool, done. i was at about 95% town on him before D3, just from having read his last uh 4 games (M90, M95, RMM40, ZM23). his approach to playing scum, in M90 & RMM40, was just to come up with a bunch of different townslippy/organic things and throw shade at people/converse without committing to anyone, whereas when he's town he is more testy, invested, and interested in lynching people. i think that he's been much more of the latter in this game, and i see no reason to believe he would specifically switch things up (considering he was super townread in M90, townread by all means except game state in RMM40, and got lynched D2 in M95). and also just by gamestate i would say he has an additional (er, multiplicative i guess) 95% chance of being town here (since he's confirmable by any scum flip other than rolecop and he has sown worry about switch which has no scum benefit really)

retroactively saying you read someone as 95% town already before after they've been semi-IC'd seems very scummy to me. i mean, my strongest townread all game was mcmc, but i was nowhere near 95% on it. if you were that sure, why weren't you beating that drum harder yesterday? i'm especially sceptical because i find WW perhaps the hardest person to read, just seems really hard to believe town could ever realistically be that sure with no pr information or even no strong wagon evidence to go from. i know people are generally bad with statistics, but in my head i for some reason have the idea of schadd having made bayesian posts somewhere on the forums, so this 95% seems very sketchy to me.

[Eevee]

The Wine Merchant seemed pretty townie on Day 2.  But, it's the first time I played with him, and he could be good at looking like he's thinking like town.

I'm not completely writing him off as town, but he'd be bottom of my lynch list.

agree with this

[Eevee]

I want to go back onto Andrew personally. Since we are all apparently saying where we are.

Yeah, let's do that, it stalled for a reason, people.

Vote: Andrew

Right, let's do exactly what scum wants everyone to do. Obviously they didn't choose to kill mcmc at random. They did it so everyone could point to me afterwards and easily mislynch me, just like yesterday. If I was scum why the hell would I want to kill mcmc last night? Especially after all the scum reads mcmc was getting during twilight, I think an mcmc lynch today was probable.

super disagree with this. i think mcmc was one of the least likely to be lynched today, (and that scum killed him because of that?)

[Eevee]

@Everyone- did mcmc seem like a PR D1?

typically PRs will be quiet D1, as they don't benefit as much from being townread. mcmc was very loud d1 in this game. sort of relevant, he was also really loud/active in M94 in a way that i could have pegged him scum for in M94 if i were still alive, and tried to point out D1 (he didn't claim D1 & claimed inventor later, but played super vt)


i think i know why you are asking

i think for most people, especially for a player of mcmc's caliber, it's just not possible to tell because they are going to mix it up. so really no idea, but if anything, i would assume special role (=pr or scum) -> more into the game, more activity. of course hindsight is 20/20, but being the role he was and being very active and doing his best makes a lot of sense, you want to draw the nightkill as the virgin.

unrelated: FoS at robz and whoever townread me last. i feel since no one is thinking i'm scum, that'd be where scum would want to go, with town's general consensus. it's true, but also a safe thigh to say.

[Eevee]

robz i'm also going to say is just town, for reasons i said earlier, with more elaboration later (taking a test l0l)

so, like i said, robz is very reminiscent of the townie side of lurkers. additionally, i think that it's especially town given robz's context: he's had, like, really good results in the last bunch of games he's been scum (including one briefly concurrent with this game), and got lynched D2 in M94 where he was on the lurky side. additionally, if he decided to lurk to earn towncred given his scumplay, supposedly he's pulled that before, and he decided to do it again in a game with, uh, 6 other vets who have probably seen it back in the day (ww definitely has). that's a super risky and silly wifom play that just isn't the kind of thing that he does.


he's also just been doing his town stuff (actilurking when he's around, hedging, using impersonal reads for people. yes, you read that right).


robz gets the schaddbrand TownClear^TM

robz is the kind of wifom. i would advice not trying against him, for real.

[AndrewisFTTW]

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