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Author Topic: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Game over! Scum won!)  (Read 159762 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #975 on: March 19, 2017, 10:38:38 pm »

I prefer Dylan but would move my vote to Andrew if need be.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #976 on: March 19, 2017, 10:39:33 pm »

I prefer Dylan but would move my vote to Andrew if need be.

Hey there! Out of stagnation from where your vote is? Or because you reread?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #977 on: March 19, 2017, 10:41:32 pm »

Can everyone briefly say why they prefer Dylan?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #978 on: March 19, 2017, 10:41:45 pm »

Or, really, why they think he's scum.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #979 on: March 19, 2017, 10:41:54 pm »

he's not paranoid
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #980 on: March 19, 2017, 10:43:25 pm »

he's not paranoid

Meaning what?  He's trying to play cool-headed to avoid looking like he's overreacting to pressure?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #981 on: March 19, 2017, 10:45:22 pm »

I find Dylan somewhat scummy but it's more of a gut read than anything. He has been a little hedgy as he admitted earlier, but that's really all I've noticed. Obviously I'd prefer him to me.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #982 on: March 19, 2017, 10:46:01 pm »

\
I appreciate your honesty. I was reading D2 to answer my own question and you were one of the few, yeah. You, and mcmc, and maybe twm? Not sure exactly. So has Eevee gotten townier for you today, WW, or you just prefer anyone but mcmc and yourself?

PPE1

Missed this.  Yes, Eevee got townier for me today.  He's pretty null right now.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #983 on: March 19, 2017, 10:46:13 pm »

Can everyone briefly say why they prefer Dylan?

I didn't like how he switched from townreading Andrew to scum reading him when it stopped being convenient for him and didn't meet any of the criteria he set for himself to change that read.

But I am still not sure that I actually prefer Dylan. I kinda feel like we have a somewhat decent chance we are just deciding between partners. Am I being way too optimistic here?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #984 on: March 19, 2017, 10:48:05 pm »

Can everyone briefly say why they prefer Dylan?

I didn't like how he switched from townreading Andrew to scum reading him when it stopped being convenient for him and didn't meet any of the criteria he set for himself to change that read.

But I am still not sure that I actually prefer Dylan. I kinda feel like we have a somewhat decent chance we are just deciding between partners. Am I being way too optimistic here?

l don't think they are partners, rereading both.  There are some suggestive markers, but a lot doesn't fit.

For what it's worth, this question sounds insincere.  (And hence scummy.)
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #985 on: March 19, 2017, 10:51:15 pm »

Can everyone briefly say why they prefer Dylan?

I didn't like how he switched from townreading Andrew to scum reading him when it stopped being convenient for him and didn't meet any of the criteria he set for himself to change that read.

But I am still not sure that I actually prefer Dylan. I kinda feel like we have a somewhat decent chance we are just deciding between partners. Am I being way too optimistic here?

l don't think they are partners, rereading both.  There are some suggestive markers, but a lot doesn't fit.

For what it's worth, this question sounds insincere.  (And hence scummy.)

Let me try again. Anyone think I am being too optimistic right now?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #986 on: March 19, 2017, 10:52:11 pm »

Let's look at scum!Dylan moving to mislynch town!Andrew:

Lynch away.

In a way, this makes me actually want to hammer, because it seems like scum resigned to their fate. But I also know scum usually fight harder against their lynch... AH WIFOM. But I would have to lean scummy for it though.

Yeah, I have generally thought your posts about mcmc have made sense and not generated near the reaction I would have liked to see. But either way this would be an informative lynch I think, so...

Intent to hammer.

Basically he was town on Andrew up to this point. 

Note that Dylan starts a wagon on me when Andrew is a very likely lynch.  Narrative here would be... he had already townread Andrew so jumping on the wagon wouldn't make sense.  So he has to vote elsewhere. 

Dylan still looks for other lynches while voting Andrew.  Also:

And to be 100% clear, I'm still not thrilled about an Andrew lynch, but if he flips town, then it would narrow the pool of people I'd be willing to lynch tomorrow down to like 3 people, and so I would join for the information. But if someone would go for a wagon on someone that I had previously listed as scummy, I would definitely prefer that.

PPE 1

This is why I don't think they are partners, by the way.  Does sound like he may know Andrew is a mislynch, so fits that narrative.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #987 on: March 19, 2017, 10:52:51 pm »

I don't think your being optimistic the fact that they are both gone and not voting for eachother currently I think says we may have found partners
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #988 on: March 19, 2017, 10:53:40 pm »

This is why I don't think they are partners, by the way.  Does sound like he may know Andrew is a mislynch, so fits that narrative.

Fair assessment. Way to ruin my fantasy!
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #989 on: March 19, 2017, 10:53:53 pm »

Well, that's one reason why I don't think they're partners.  Another is Andrew's reread as town to Dylan; a little more likely to go nullish there (which was IDPTG).  There is, of course, WIFOM there.

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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #990 on: March 19, 2017, 10:54:13 pm »

I don't think your being optimistic the fact that they are both gone and not voting for eachother currently I think says we may have found partners

Way to renew my fantasy!
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #991 on: March 19, 2017, 10:55:06 pm »

Hmm.. Dylan never changed his vote from me I guess.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #992 on: March 19, 2017, 10:55:19 pm »


he's not paranoid

Meaning what?  He's trying to play cool-headed to avoid looking like he's overreacting to pressure?
irrespective of pressure; i don't think he's trying to not look paranoid, rather, he tends to be when he's town and there isn't reason to be when you're scum.


idk, i don't think i can really read him. i think that, at present, i'm good at reading people that are strongly opinionated/confident when they're town (folks like you, gkrieg, mcmc, robz) whereas people like d32 can do things that give me false positives, and i haven't really figured out a good heuristic for him yet. it's kinda like, andrew looks town to me and d32 doesn't really look that strongly like anything, so i'd prefer him
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #993 on: March 19, 2017, 10:56:37 pm »

vote: dylan I think we want this instead.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #994 on: March 19, 2017, 10:56:44 pm »

vote: Dylan
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #995 on: March 19, 2017, 10:58:11 pm »

I don't think your being optimistic the fact that they are both gone and not voting for eachother currently I think says we may have found partners

Nope I'm here and nope, not partners. Let's hope you're right about Dylan though. It'd make me feel better about you, for one thing.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #996 on: March 19, 2017, 10:58:40 pm »


i don't think he's trying to not look paranoid, rather, he tends to be when he's town and there isn't reason to be when you're scum.
the post i pointed out looks like trying to be paranoid, incidentally


would vote him right now except i'm faintly concerned about it just hammering. he's at l-2 i think?
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #997 on: March 19, 2017, 10:59:43 pm »

yes


vote: dylan l-1
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #998 on: March 19, 2017, 11:00:34 pm »

no hurry though, we still have one hundred and twenty minutes
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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #999 on: March 19, 2017, 11:05:30 pm »

So my feelings on Andrew are basically these things.  Well the first I can't explain well.  It may just be his posting style.  Early on it was, like, a lot of comments without actually making much contribution to the game.  Somewhat opportunistically puts Joseph at L-1.  I remember Andrew as being more argumentative.  He has appealed to that argumentative meta regarding him defending his wagon, but it really didn't feel like he was defending that hard.  Some discussion with McMc and someone else I think, but it never really escalated.

Worth mentioning that Andrew could just not want to get in those big arguments like with Ash and Yuma and so made a choice to play differently.

Another thing I didn't like is that he never really finds me suspicious for voting him and pushing his lynch.  That's a big of a red flag for me (the anti-OMGUS thing).  Voting me when my wagon started to grow, without much of a read on me one way or the other as his wagon grew.

Other things are just, it's what I feel, like gut.

I've admittedly become more unsure about things.
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