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Author Topic: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (game overrrrrrrrrrrrrr)  (Read 109047 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #775 on: March 09, 2017, 12:36:26 pm »

The more I think about it, the more I think No Lynch is bad. What do we possibly have to gain from it?
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

EFHW

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #776 on: March 09, 2017, 12:47:02 pm »

The more I think about it, the more I think No Lynch is bad. What do we possibly have to gain from it?
It's basically just doing things in a different order, and maybe getting the chance at a second vig shot and better POE.  Instead of "lynch-vig-nk" it's "vig-nk?-lynch?" possibly followed by another round of "vig-nk?-lynch?". The drawback is what gkrieg said, that we put the game in the hands of the vig rather than benefiting from town consensus.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #777 on: March 09, 2017, 01:08:50 pm »

I think I would prefer lynching today one person where we all can come to a decision on who we think is scummy whereas leaving it up to one person to decide the fate of the town. Also LL looks exactly like the scum LL I played with from M94 and would most likely want to lynch him. Also Unvote as to prevent any hammers by scum. Curently I believe that 3 of LL, Cal, Robz, 2.71828 ( Haven't played with before but looks like possible LL partner) and Jimmmmm ( Haven't played with before so no clue how to read him as town or scum. Favoring Town just off this game though. I think the MOst likely scum team right now is LL/Cal/2.71828.
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

Calamitas

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #778 on: March 09, 2017, 01:48:12 pm »

Firstly we need to evaluate how likely it is that scum is aware of the identity of the vig.

If we assume that they didn't jk the goon, they have a chance of at least 50% of knowing the identity (they would have blocked either target or vig).
Additionally, they have 2 rolecop results and reads. For example, it is pretty clear that I'm not the vig after my screwup. Other PoE might be possible.
So it is pretty likely that they know the identity and they will know it for certain after tomorrow, whether we lynch or don't.

No-lynching doesn't help us though.

1. It would be inconsequent to no-lynch+vig-shot, lynch+no-vig-shot is strictly better (same number of town controlled kills, sure to go through, more informative for later)
2. In case of no-lynch+no-vig-shot scum doesn't kill until they know for certain who the vig is and then kill them.
--> We gain no lynchpool reduction since our ICable roll is taken out.

Therefore, it is better to lynch.

If the vig comes under pressure they should claim. If scum counterclaims we should give no preference dependent on order of claim and just decide between the two with a 50% chance of hitting scum.
If the vig isn't lynched today they should shoot (someone besides from their previous target) regardless of the alignment of the death player.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

schadd

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (N2)
« Reply #779 on: March 09, 2017, 02:09:39 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

LaLight (1): Jimmmmm
JaketheBaseballGod22 (1): 2.71828...
gkrieg13 (1): LaLight

Not voting (5): Robz888, gkrieg13, Calamitas, EFHW, JaketheBaseballGod22


With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends Friday, March 17 at midnight forum time.
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I thought you thought it was a slip because I said 'Jake's partners' instead of 'Roadrunner7671.'

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (N2)
« Reply #780 on: March 09, 2017, 02:22:31 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

LaLight (1): Jimmmmm
JaketheBaseballGod22 (1): 2.71828...
gkrieg13 (1): LaLight

Not voting (5): Robz888, gkrieg13, Calamitas, EFHW, JaketheBaseballGod22


With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends Friday, March 17 at midnight forum time.
I'm confused i never voted for 2.71828 and i just unvoted anyway.
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

gkrieg13

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (N2)
« Reply #781 on: March 09, 2017, 02:35:19 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

LaLight (1): Jimmmmm
JaketheBaseballGod22 (1): 2.71828...
gkrieg13 (1): LaLight

Not voting (5): Robz888, gkrieg13, Calamitas, EFHW, JaketheBaseballGod22


With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends Friday, March 17 at midnight forum time.
I'm confused i never voted for 2.71828 and i just unvoted anyway.

It's the other way around.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (N2)
« Reply #782 on: March 09, 2017, 02:52:34 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

LaLight (1): Jimmmmm
JaketheBaseballGod22 (1): 2.71828...
gkrieg13 (1): LaLight

Not voting (5): Robz888, gkrieg13, Calamitas, EFHW, JaketheBaseballGod22


With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends Friday, March 17 at midnight forum time.
I'm confused i never voted for 2.71828 and i just unvoted anyway.

It's the other way around.
Whoops
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

2.71828.....

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #783 on: March 09, 2017, 06:08:13 pm »

Regarding lynch/no lynch/scum knows vig/scum doesn't know vig: vigs shooting usually hurts town more than it helps. It can come through and save town every now and then, but I just don't want to trust that. I much prefer letting us, as town, figure out who is scum, lynch them, do it again, and win this game.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #784 on: March 09, 2017, 06:39:35 pm »

You know why UoS never got any traction? Because it has been a slow game and he was scum.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #785 on: March 09, 2017, 06:49:17 pm »

On my phone, tried to post a vote review post going back to D1, too difficult. But look at UoS then at Jake. Look at the voting history. Look at the wagons that developed those days.

Scum drove the story. Which is where I think Robz is really dangerous here, because he helped write that story. But I think towns story starts with lynching Jake. We can't let scum control the game here
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

gkrieg13

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #786 on: March 09, 2017, 06:57:44 pm »

The fact that Jake isn't really giving any reasoning for his reads makes me want to lynch him.
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LaLight

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #787 on: March 10, 2017, 01:42:02 am »

Jake is definitely an option.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #788 on: March 10, 2017, 01:45:55 am »

The fact that Jake isn't really giving any reasoning for his reads makes me want to lynch him.
I will say them again the.

LL- Looks exactly like the scum LL i played with in M94.

Robz- As I've reread this game I've seen like before mentioned leading town. I think that town finding not one but two Pr's in the first two days is very concerning and I feel like robz is most likely the scum rolecop and is leading town towards town Pr's and pushing them until they claim (RR D-1) as to out them making the scum kills harder too analyze because they are obvious.

Cal- Cal can be such a good scum player that it is always concerning to me. On that note though I have the final scum team spot as etheir Cal-Jimmmmmm or 2.71828. These are the 5 I have in my scum pool based off of who I find as town. Jimmmmm and 2.71828 I have never played with before so I don't know how they play as town or scum which is why their here. Cal is very hard to read so which is why he along with the other two are null to scum for me right now.
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #789 on: March 10, 2017, 01:47:41 am »

On my phone, tried to post a vote review post going back to D1, too difficult. But look at UoS then at Jake. Look at the voting history. Look at the wagons that developed those days.

Scum drove the story. Which is where I think Robz is really dangerous here, because he helped write that story. But I think towns story starts with lynching Jake. We can't let scum control the game here
How in any way am I controlling the game?
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

LaLight

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #790 on: March 10, 2017, 01:47:59 am »

So, basically it's me and prople who are hard to read?

Ppe: 1
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Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #791 on: March 10, 2017, 01:49:52 am »

So, basically it's me and prople who are hard to read?

Ppe: 1
It's LL/Robz/Jimmmmm or Cal or 2.71828

The order I put them in is my confidence in that read with LL's being extremely high.
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

LaLight

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #792 on: March 10, 2017, 01:55:50 am »

We may try a fake vote: playername to see where it gets us.
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Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #793 on: March 10, 2017, 01:58:38 am »

Can someone please explain the case for voting me?
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

LaLight

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #794 on: March 10, 2017, 02:17:54 am »

Can someone please explain the case for voting me?

For me personally it looks like you are looking for a mislynch. So you chose me because of me and gkrieg talking about previpus game and you may thought that you were my partner so people will believe. But you can't take only me, so you picked couple of guys whom you can't read. Also i am pretty sure there's a bus.
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Wins: 15, 10
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LaLight

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #795 on: March 10, 2017, 02:18:45 am »

Jake/gkrieg/Robz?
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Robz888

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #796 on: March 10, 2017, 09:29:26 am »

Robz- As I've reread this game I've seen like before mentioned leading town. I think that town finding not one but two Pr's in the first two days is very concerning and I feel like robz is most likely the scum rolecop and is leading town towards town Pr's and pushing them until they claim (RR D-1) as to out them making the scum kills harder too analyze because they are obvious.

That theory is obviously false. Even if I were the scum rolecop, I wouldn't have had any way to know RR was the JK on Day 1. The rolecop's first chance to investigate didn't come until after that.
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Calamitas

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #797 on: March 10, 2017, 10:31:39 am »

Robz- As I've reread this game I've seen like before mentioned leading town. I think that town finding not one but two Pr's in the first two days is very concerning and I feel like robz is most likely the scum rolecop and is leading town towards town Pr's and pushing them until they claim (RR D-1) as to out them making the scum kills harder too analyze because they are obvious.

That theory is obviously false. Even if I were the scum rolecop, I wouldn't have had any way to know RR was the JK on Day 1. The rolecop's first chance to investigate didn't come until after that.
Townslip?
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

gkrieg13

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #798 on: March 10, 2017, 10:51:05 am »

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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M95: UChoose Flavor™: physics mafia (D3)
« Reply #799 on: March 10, 2017, 11:16:14 am »

Can someone please explain the case for voting me?

For me personally it looks like you are looking for a mislynch. So you chose me because of me and gkrieg talking about previpus game and you may thought that you were my partner so people will believe. But you can't take only me, so you picked couple of guys whom you can't read. Also i am pretty sure there's a bus.
Why do you keep changing what I'm saying?
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None
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