I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?
What do you think of my theory that when good players do unexpected, arguably anti-town things, especially day 1, they are usually town, because as scum they'd be more careful not to do them?
Isn't scum!gkrieg even more likely to not want to look scummy? People put way more thought into their scum games, in my experience, although this is general, not some assumption or read on gkrieg specifically.
Usually I would agree, but what confuses me here is that gkrieg apparently still thinks his post was a good idea.
I sort of agree too, though also what about the motivation for sk!gkrieg to post something like what he did? I did a bit more musing on that last night..
So, posting what he did, gkrieg ends up looking a bit scummy, so the scums themselves don't want to pick him off even if they know he's not the real traitor (because some set-ups let them know who it is anyway). To the scums, anyone looking a little scummy is better left alive to begin with. There's one modifier that scums might have that never intersects with an SK, and three that do, so chances are, they're in a position of thinking it's 50-50 whether or not an SK exists.
To the rest of us, there's a less-than-50% chance of there being an SK anyway. Certain roles (3/4 of the ones that only appear once) are incompatible with SK at all. For the other ones, Detective existing means a 75% chance of an SK, 1-shot commuter, goon cop and jailkeeper each give a 50% chance, and psychologist gives 25%. Anyway, we're likely to be confused (as we were!), but would rather hunt for actual scums rather than kill a traitor who isn't able to do the NK, given that we have a low(ish) prior on the existence of an SK.
tl;dr maybe I'm a little more suspicious of gkrieg than yesterday, but for different reasons, and while I think that would have been a cunning play as an SK, the chance of him actually being SK is really low.
I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)