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[faust]

I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?

[Eevee]

I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?

What do you think of my theory that when good players do unexpected, arguably anti-town things, especially day 1, they are usually town, because as scum they'd be more careful not to do them?

Isn't scum!gkrieg even more likely to not want to look scummy? People put way more thought into their scum games, in my experience, although this is general, not some assumption or read on gkrieg specifically.

[LaLight]

I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?

I see that post as a straightforward not thought over joke, using usual WW voting and the fact we're playing the game with traitor after long time. After posting he might've realised, that was a bad idea, but making this post as first one is clearly understandable by me.

[faust]

I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?

What do you think of my theory that when good players do unexpected, arguably anti-town things, especially day 1, they are usually town, because as scum they'd be more careful not to do them?

Isn't scum!gkrieg even more likely to not want to look scummy? People put way more thought into their scum games, in my experience, although this is general, not some assumption or read on gkrieg specifically.

Usually I would agree, but what confuses me here is that gkrieg apparently still thinks his post was a good idea.

[SpaceAnemone]

I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?

What do you think of my theory that when good players do unexpected, arguably anti-town things, especially day 1, they are usually town, because as scum they'd be more careful not to do them?

Isn't scum!gkrieg even more likely to not want to look scummy? People put way more thought into their scum games, in my experience, although this is general, not some assumption or read on gkrieg specifically.

Usually I would agree, but what confuses me here is that gkrieg apparently still thinks his post was a good idea.

I sort of agree too, though also what about the motivation for sk!gkrieg to post something like what he did? I did a bit more musing on that last night..

So, posting what he did, gkrieg ends up looking a bit scummy, so the scums themselves don't want to pick him off even if they know he's not the real traitor (because some set-ups let them know who it is anyway). To the scums, anyone looking a little scummy is better left alive to begin with. There's one modifier that scums might have that never intersects with an SK, and three that do, so chances are, they're in a position of thinking it's 50-50 whether or not an SK exists.

To the rest of us, there's a less-than-50% chance of there being an SK anyway. Certain roles (3/4 of the ones that only appear once) are incompatible with SK at all. For the other ones, Detective existing means a 75% chance of an SK, 1-shot commuter, goon cop and jailkeeper each give a 50% chance, and psychologist gives 25%. Anyway, we're likely to be confused (as we were!), but would rather hunt for actual scums rather than kill a traitor who isn't able to do the NK, given that we have a low(ish) prior on the existence of an SK.

tl;dr maybe I'm a little more suspicious of gkrieg than yesterday, but for different reasons, and while I think that would have been a cunning play as an SK, the chance of him actually being SK is really low.

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

[SpaceAnemone]

I don't know what to think about that post. Typical schadd. What's spqr btw?

Senatus Populusque Romanus

Ah! I just read it as "sqrt" (I get easily confused by letters...) and felt that it made about as much sense as anything else :-)

[LaLight]

I know that town!gkrieg is worried about being lynched D1, so why open with a post that would make him look scummy?

What do you think of my theory that when good players do unexpected, arguably anti-town things, especially day 1, they are usually town, because as scum they'd be more careful not to do them?

Isn't scum!gkrieg even more likely to not want to look scummy? People put way more thought into their scum games, in my experience, although this is general, not some assumption or read on gkrieg specifically.

Usually I would agree, but what confuses me here is that gkrieg apparently still thinks his post was a good idea.

I sort of agree too, though also what about the motivation for sk!gkrieg to post something like what he did? I did a bit more musing on that last night..

So, posting what he did, gkrieg ends up looking a bit scummy, so the scums themselves don't want to pick him off even if they know he's not the real traitor (because some set-ups let them know who it is anyway). To the scums, anyone looking a little scummy is better left alive to begin with. There's one modifier that scums might have that never intersects with an SK, and three that do, so chances are, they're in a position of thinking it's 50-50 whether or not an SK exists.

To the rest of us, there's a less-than-50% chance of there being an SK anyway. Certain roles (3/4 of the ones that only appear once) are incompatible with SK at all. For the other ones, Detective existing means a 75% chance of an SK, 1-shot commuter, goon cop and jailkeeper each give a 50% chance, and psychologist gives 25%. Anyway, we're likely to be confused (as we were!), but would rather hunt for actual scums rather than kill a traitor who isn't able to do the NK, given that we have a low(ish) prior on the existence of an SK.

tl;dr maybe I'm a little more suspicious of gkrieg than yesterday, but for different reasons, and while I think that would have been a cunning play as an SK, the chance of him actually being SK is really low.

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

This is a perfect Space Anemoney post

[faust]

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

Well at least I don't have to surprise you!

Vote: Space-A

[SpaceAnemone]

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

Well at least I don't have to surprise you!

Vote: Space-A

Reading back, you were the very first person to bring up SKs and to bring up set-up talk in general within this game, so from you in particular, the suspicion is still actually a little surprising :-P

I'd've been less surprised by votes from most other people, excluding Calamitas, obviously.

[Robz888]

Vote: Space

SK hunting/theorizing is one of the only generic scumtells I actually believe in.

[LaLight]

Vote: Space

SK hunting/theorizing is one of the only generic scumtells I actually believe in.

What will you tell about schadd mentioning of SK then?

[Robz888]

Well, I was joking when I voted for gkrieg, though his defence is really scummy. And THIS and this alone makes gkrieg town. See "Robz alignment indicators". Scum!gkrieg would defend himself so perfectly, you would not suspect him of anything for another 4-5 games. This is not the case, for now, town on gkrieg. Unvote

This is a good post.

[LaLight]

Well, I was joking when I voted for gkrieg, though his defence is really scummy. And THIS and this alone makes gkrieg town. See "Robz alignment indicators". Scum!gkrieg would defend himself so perfectly, you would not suspect him of anything for another 4-5 games. This is not the case, for now, town on gkrieg. Unvote

This is a good post.

Thanks a lot

[SpaceAnemone]

Vote: Space

SK hunting/theorizing is one of the only generic scumtells I actually believe in.

What will you tell about schadd mentioning of SK then?

Schadd's mention was at post #133. The earliest in-game mention I can find is from faust himself at #94.

[Robz888]

Vote: Space

SK hunting/theorizing is one of the only generic scumtells I actually believe in.

What will you tell about schadd mentioning of SK then?

Merely "mentioning" the SK, as faust and schadd did, is fine. Space went significantly further than that:

I sort of agree too, though also what about the motivation for sk!gkrieg to post something like what he did? I did a bit more musing on that last night..

So, posting what he did, gkrieg ends up looking a bit scummy, so the scums themselves don't want to pick him off even if they know he's not the real traitor (because some set-ups let them know who it is anyway). To the scums, anyone looking a little scummy is better left alive to begin with. There's one modifier that scums might have that never intersects with an SK, and three that do, so chances are, they're in a position of thinking it's 50-50 whether or not an SK exists.

To the rest of us, there's a less-than-50% chance of there being an SK anyway. Certain roles (3/4 of the ones that only appear once) are incompatible with SK at all. For the other ones, Detective existing means a 75% chance of an SK, 1-shot commuter, goon cop and jailkeeper each give a 50% chance, and psychologist gives 25%. Anyway, we're likely to be confused (as we were!), but would rather hunt for actual scums rather than kill a traitor who isn't able to do the NK, given that we have a low(ish) prior on the existence of an SK.

tl;dr maybe I'm a little more suspicious of gkrieg than yesterday, but for different reasons, and while I think that would have been a cunning play as an SK, the chance of him actually being SK is really low.

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

[LaLight]

Vote: Space

SK hunting/theorizing is one of the only generic scumtells I actually believe in.

What will you tell about schadd mentioning of SK then?

Merely "mentioning" the SK, as faust and schadd did, is fine. Space went significantly further than that:

I sort of agree too, though also what about the motivation for sk!gkrieg to post something like what he did? I did a bit more musing on that last night..

So, posting what he did, gkrieg ends up looking a bit scummy, so the scums themselves don't want to pick him off even if they know he's not the real traitor (because some set-ups let them know who it is anyway). To the scums, anyone looking a little scummy is better left alive to begin with. There's one modifier that scums might have that never intersects with an SK, and three that do, so chances are, they're in a position of thinking it's 50-50 whether or not an SK exists.

To the rest of us, there's a less-than-50% chance of there being an SK anyway. Certain roles (3/4 of the ones that only appear once) are incompatible with SK at all. For the other ones, Detective existing means a 75% chance of an SK, 1-shot commuter, goon cop and jailkeeper each give a 50% chance, and psychologist gives 25%. Anyway, we're likely to be confused (as we were!), but would rather hunt for actual scums rather than kill a traitor who isn't able to do the NK, given that we have a low(ish) prior on the existence of an SK.

tl;dr maybe I'm a little more suspicious of gkrieg than yesterday, but for different reasons, and while I think that would have been a cunning play as an SK, the chance of him actually being SK is really low.

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

This is a fair point, but I was looking for SK first too when game started and I'm town. For me it is because I know for sure here's Mafia and the more important thing is to think if there's SK.

But! I didn't write any of this because I merely want to look on nights amount of killings. But that's me, whereas Space is setuoy person. It's totally normal for them to make a post like that.

Tl;dr: if I could write posts and formulate thought like Space does, I'd make the same post. And I'm town.

[SpaceAnemone]

Merely "mentioning" the SK, as faust and schadd did, is fine. Space went significantly further than that:

I sort of agree too, though also what about the motivation for sk!gkrieg to post something like what he did? I did a bit more musing on that last night..

So, posting what he did, gkrieg ends up looking a bit scummy, so the scums themselves don't want to pick him off even if they know he's not the real traitor (because some set-ups let them know who it is anyway). To the scums, anyone looking a little scummy is better left alive to begin with. There's one modifier that scums might have that never intersects with an SK, and three that do, so chances are, they're in a position of thinking it's 50-50 whether or not an SK exists.

To the rest of us, there's a less-than-50% chance of there being an SK anyway. Certain roles (3/4 of the ones that only appear once) are incompatible with SK at all. For the other ones, Detective existing means a 75% chance of an SK, 1-shot commuter, goon cop and jailkeeper each give a 50% chance, and psychologist gives 25%. Anyway, we're likely to be confused (as we were!), but would rather hunt for actual scums rather than kill a traitor who isn't able to do the NK, given that we have a low(ish) prior on the existence of an SK.

tl;dr maybe I'm a little more suspicious of gkrieg than yesterday, but for different reasons, and while I think that would have been a cunning play as an SK, the chance of him actually being SK is really low.

I now expect to get voted a little bit for talking about SKs and reading the setup thoroughly, but in my defence, LL already pointed me out as a setupsy person :-)

Sure, but you missed bolding the first use I made of "sk", which was the entire point of my whole train of thought there: it's the role with the best reason to fake-breadcrumb traitor, and it's worth at least considering if we're throwing around all those other possible motivations for gkreig's opening post.

PPE: Thank you LL :-)

[Robz888]

Why does the SK want to make the mafia think he is the Traitor? The mafia can recruit the traitor in this setup, yes? The SK doesn't want to convince the mafia to shoot him.

Maybe I'm missing something, you've clearly thought about this way more than I have, which, again, speaks volumes.

[Awaclus]

Oh hey, look at that, it's stuff. I like stuff.

Vote: SpaceAnemone

[2.71828.....]

Prod: Awaclus

No official prod was issued for this request

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 1.2

schadd (1): Ichimaru Gin
Eevee (1): SpaceAnemone
gkrieg13 (1): Calamitas
Calamitas (1): schadd
SpaceAnemone (3): faust, Robz888, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Roadrunner7671, gkrieg13, LaLight, Eevee

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day 1 will be Thursday, 19 January,  at 1 AM forum time.

[SpaceAnemone]

Why does the SK want to make the mafia think he is the Traitor? The mafia can recruit the traitor in this setup, yes? The SK doesn't want to convince the mafia to shoot him.

Maybe I'm missing something, you've clearly thought about this way more than I have, which, again, speaks volumes.

Most of those volumes are about differences in our character, I guess.

I think M84 (BSG) is the only game I've seen a traitor in before. That was a closed set-up (plus gkrieg vigged him on N1 anyway) so there was no real traitor-related set-up discussion. I hadn't actually twigged that conversion was a thing for this game, which may sound odd, but that key sentence is hidden as the second sentence on a bullet-point two thirds of the way down the mechanics words. In all my prior werewolf experience, we had a really common role called "dark villager", so I assumed "traitor" was a bit like that: a "townie" on the scum side. So my analysis works really well for that, but not so well if the traitor has the chance of becoming a scum themself. Urgh.

[schadd]

mm.


vote: spaceanemone

[LaLight]

I do not like this wagon.

[Robz888]

Why does the SK want to make the mafia think he is the Traitor? The mafia can recruit the traitor in this setup, yes? The SK doesn't want to convince the mafia to shoot him.

Maybe I'm missing something, you've clearly thought about this way more than I have, which, again, speaks volumes.

Most of those volumes are about differences in our character, I guess.

I think M84 (BSG) is the only game I've seen a traitor in before. That was a closed set-up (plus gkrieg vigged him on N1 anyway) so there was no real traitor-related set-up discussion. I hadn't actually twigged that conversion was a thing for this game, which may sound odd, but that key sentence is hidden as the second sentence on a bullet-point two thirds of the way down the mechanics words. In all my prior werewolf experience, we had a really common role called "dark villager", so I assumed "traitor" was a bit like that: a "townie" on the scum side. So my analysis works really well for that, but not so well if the traitor has the chance of becoming a scum themself. Urgh.

Wait, you are now claiming you did not know that the mafia can recruit the Traitor?