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[EFHW]

He probably would have. unvote Sorry, but I need to hear the roleblocker claim.

You don't need to hear the claim.  You need to feel confident it's out there.  Do you?

Thing is, if Awaclus is town AND TWM got a true result, then you are scum. So what conclusion do I draw from you encouraging me to feel confident he is town?  If TWM didn't get a true result, then the POE on RR doesn't work anymore.

If you are confident that Awaclus is town, and you are town yourself and you believe I am town, then you should be questioning TWM's finding.  You did do this, in a one-off post, but haven't followed up. I guess you don't feel confident in my being town.

[EFHW]

In other words, if hypothetically you, ashersky, were to claim roleblocker, then I would know that TWM got an untrue result or is lying about his role, and can't POE RR anymore.

[EFHW]

Yh, RR obviously knew this, so no town cred there. It's almost like he was fishing for the town cred.

Not so much "almost like he was fishing for the town cred" but "he was definitely, absolutely fishing for the town cred."

To me it read like he felt his lynch was inevitable and was putting one more thing out there in his defense without really expecting it to work.

[ashersky]

In other words, if hypothetically you, ashersky, were to claim roleblocker, then I would know that TWM got an untrue result or is lying about his role, and can't POE RR anymore.

This works from your POV, but not from the POV of someone who is not sure of your alignment.

I think TWM is probably lying about his role, but is probably telling the truth about gkrieg being town (Godfather notwithstanding).  There are some possibilities, right?

TWD town -- gkrieg town
TWD town -- gkrieg Godfather
TWD scum -- gkrieg town
TWD scum -- gkrieg scum, probably Godfather for safety's sake against other claims.

I think likelihood has to go 3, 4, 1, 2.

All told, it makes me feel like TWD is probably the best lynch based on claim-y stuff.  RR is just super scummy from actions and posts, though.

So, for me, not knowing if it is you or gkrieg with them is what keeps me from wanting to just support your requests.

[ashersky]

I feel like gkrieg has been absent for awhile now.  Am I right there?  Or he's just quiet?

[gkrieg13]

I feel like gkrieg has been absent for awhile now.  Am I right there?  Or he's just quiet?

I think I have been absent for like a day?

I've just been busy with stuff (like the workweek starting back up).  I actually didn't think that this day would last this long, and that RR would be lynched by now.

[gkrieg13]

I think the RB needs to claim as well.

I see two scenarios here:

1. RR is town - The RB claiming here is bad, because if one really exists, that means we have a small chance of having another day if the RB chooses correctly and scum doesn't RB them.

2. RR is scum - Well the RB is probably better as an IC anyway, because the chance of them actually stopping the kill is pretty low (and RR might even be the scum roleblocker).  They wouldn't necessarily be an IC, but at least it would lock them into a claim with Awaclus if they are both scum.  Either way, I don't really see the downside in this case.

And with either of the scenarios, the chance that the RB guesses correctly is really low.  It would be different if they were a cop or something, but they have to correctly guess the killer without the scum roleblocker correctly guessing them.  That is just super low odds.

[mcmcsalot]

Still finding ash's thought process to be very towny.

It does seem gkrieg has taken the same "I'm slightly confirmed town therefor going to stop posting" route of Joseph and awaclus.

What are the chances the scum team is EFHW/gkrieg/twm. Don't they just push rr right out the gate since he was scummy yesterday. I have this evening to myself so I can spend some solid computer time putting together some different scenarios.

Specifically I want to look at how people have changed from yesterday to today, and what exactly did TWM's claim due to the day. Who were we going to lynch without the claim and who might the claim have moved us to.

PPE: 2

[gkrieg13]

Still finding ash's thought process to be very towny.

It does seem gkrieg has taken the same "I'm slightly confirmed town therefor going to stop posting" route of Joseph and awaclus.

What are the chances the scum team is EFHW/gkrieg/twm. Don't they just push rr right out the gate since he was scummy yesterday. I have this evening to myself so I can spend some solid computer time putting together some different scenarios.

Specifically I want to look at how people have changed from yesterday to today, and what exactly did TWM's claim due to the day. Who were we going to lynch without the claim and who might the claim have moved us to.

PPE: 2

I'm pretty sure RR was going to be the lynch both before and after for me.  RR is genuinely scummy, and the way that the wagon didn't form on him yesterday, but instead formed on Jake is super scummy.

[ashersky]

A few RB claims scenarios:

--no counter, basically IC.
--scum counter, 1 v 1

Who does scum NK?  RB kill makes another RB, so guaranteed 2 blocks.  Awaclus kill neutralizes UB, but guaranteed 2 blocks.

Except, scum has at least 1-shot RB.

And I just realized gkrieg assumes full RB in his post.  Seems like a scumslip.

[ashersky]

I think the RB needs to claim as well.

I see two scenarios here:

1. RR is town - The RB claiming here is bad, because if one really exists, that means we have a small chance of having another day if the RB chooses correctly and scum doesn't RB them.

2. RR is scum - Well the RB is probably better as an IC anyway, because the chance of them actually stopping the kill is pretty low (and RR might even be the scum roleblocker).  They wouldn't necessarily be an IC, but at least it would lock them into a claim with Awaclus if they are both scum.  Either way, I don't really see the downside in this case.

And with either of the scenarios, the chance that the RB guesses correctly is really low.  It would be different if they were a cop or something, but they have to correctly guess the killer without the scum roleblocker correctly guessing them.  That is just super low odds.

He does it twice.  Bolded.

[gkrieg13]

A few RB claims scenarios:

--no counter, basically IC.
--scum counter, 1 v 1

Who does scum NK?  RB kill makes another RB, so guaranteed 2 blocks.  Awaclus kill neutralizes UB, but guaranteed 2 blocks.

Except, scum has at least 1-shot RB.

And I just realized gkrieg assumes full RB in his post.  Seems like a scumslip.

Maybe I'm confused with the setup?  How can it not be full RB?

[ashersky]

Even if all claims so far are true, that's only BBC or BBE.  3T is 1-shot RB.

[gkrieg13]

Blocker Roles
B = Roleblocker
BB = Roleblocker; 1-Shot Roleblocker
BBB = Roleblocker; 1-Shot Roleblocker x2
BBBB = Roleblocker x2; 1-Shot Roleblocker
BBBBB = Roleblocker x2; 1-Shot Roleblocker x2
BBBBBB = Roleblocker x3

Scum Roles (In addition to the Godfather)
TTTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

After power roles are determined from the table above, Vanilla Townies are added to arrive at 12 players.

* "Or" roles are determined randomly
** Single M rolls result in the Universal Backup converting to a Mason
*** 5 or 6 T rolls result in a scum team of Goon - Goon - Godfather. During N0, the team may elect to have one of the two Goons be 1-Shot Bulletproof. This is optional and not required.
**** If there are zero Ts, one member of the mafia team is randomly 1-Shot Bulletproof.

[ashersky]

I'm wrong, it's strongman that is 1-shot. 

[gkrieg13]

Even if all claims so far are true, that's only BBC or BBE.  3T is 1-shot RB.

No it's not?

PPE: Ok, I thought I was crazy for a second

[ashersky]

I'm wrong, it's strongman that is 1-shot.

Sorry gkrieg.  RB is always full.

[ashersky]

So RB claim neuters the RB since scum can block the blocker.

Is that worth it?  Assuming we are lynching correctly today, I see use in waiting.

[ashersky]

And I'm starting to feel like TWM is the best Lynch today...

[ashersky]

Also, iPad died mid post.

[gkrieg13]

For Awaclus's claim to not be false, there needs to be both a scum RB and a town RB.

I had actually forgotten that we still have a UB alive, which makes the RB claiming even better.

PPE: Why TWM instead of RR?  There isn't anything that points to TWM's claim not being true is there?

[gkrieg13]

So RB claim neuters the RB since scum can block the blocker.

Is that worth it?  Assuming we are lynching correctly today, I see use in waiting.

I mean, assuming RR is scum, there is a 33% chance that he is the RB, and if he flips goon, we know that both Awaclus and the claimed RB are lying.  So that is a point toward claiming.

The ONLY reason I can think of for not wanting the RB to claim, is if we don't lynch correctly today.  (which in case anyone wasn't aware, probably requires all town to lynch the scum(probably just because scum could bus)).  Then the RB has a very small chance of blocking the killer and not being blocked himself. 

In the event that the scum RB blocks the town RB, does the town RB still get to block someone?  What is the resolution order?

[ashersky]

For Awaclus's claim to not be false, there needs to be both a scum RB and a town RB.

I had actually forgotten that we still have a UB alive, which makes the RB claiming even better.

PPE: Why TWM instead of RR?  There isn't anything that points to TWM's claim not being true is there?

There's nothing that points to it being true, either.  1-Shot Cop is the go-to fake claim.  There is no tracking in the game, it has the most iterations (C and E), etc.

There's been scumminess.  If RR is town, he's 100% the patsy scum wants due to his terrible play on D2.

It is mylo after all.

[ashersky]

Goon flip doesn't mean full RB is lying; BTTTT is possible if TWM and Awaclus are lying.

[ashersky]

What's the wagon at?  If he was town, I have to think scum could have hammered out for the win.