Now again, but a bit more concise now:
Currently it is public knowledge that {Sa, robz} contains exactly one scum and exactly one vig.
Additionally it is known that {Calamitas, mcm, WW} contains 1 scum.
The scum in the latter group is overwhelmingly more likely to be the rb since scum wouldn't want to give the vig a shot if the fakeclaimed vig gets lynched today.
In case of a no-lynch, scum must reduce either playerpool.
There are two options then:
- The vig gets killed.
- Someone out of {Cala, mcm, WW} gets killed
In case of the first scenario we know the other one to be scum. We lynch him and are faced with a 2 player lynchpool.
In case of the second scenario, we lynch out of the two survivors out of {mcm, Cala, WW}. We have a 50% chance of hitting scum there. In case we hit the real scum, we have most likely hit the rb. In that case, if scum doesn't possess the switch anymore, the surviving vig kills the last scum (that one is confirmed) and the game is won.