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[faust]

Welcome to M90: Literature Mafia!

Mod: faust, comod: schadd

This is a semi-open setup for 12 players in the style of asher9++. See second post for additional information.

Players:
1. LaLight
2. Calamitas
3. gkrieg13
4. Witherweaver
5. Robz888
6. SpaceAnemone
7. silverspawn
8. J Reggie
9. teamlyle
10. Eevee
11. mcmcsalot
12. pacovf

Spectators tagged: Archetype, Roadrunner7671, mail-mi, Joseph2302, 2.71828....., scott_pilgrim

Day starts/ends:

General rules

Changes to the usual rule sets are marked in olive.

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun!  Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game. Please read The Civility Pledge before signing up for any mafia game on this site.  If you have not /pledged there, you cannot play. Excessive personal attacks or uncivil behavior may be dealt with by modifiers or modkills.

1. General Gameplay and Etiquette:

1. You may not quote information (either real or fabricated) from any game-related source other than the thread you are posting in. This means no quotes from PMs and no quotes from QTs in the main thread or in another QT. Paraphrasing is acceptable. If you are unsure whether a post is legal, please ask the moderator before posting.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings and the QTs specifically designed for this purpose.
3. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 24 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

2. Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:

1. Day phases will last 7 days, Twilight lasts 12 hours, Night lasts 36 hours.
2. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
3. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
4. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until the mod locks the thread; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
5. If the deadline is hit without a player reaching the majority of votes, there will be no lynch.
6. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
7. Please submit vote revocations Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
8. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or night kill, town wins.
10. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post in the game or in Quicktopics. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
11. If the thread is locked, you may not post.  Threads can be locked for various reasons, but no matter what the reason, you may not post.  The mod may forget to lock the thread, but if they say it is locked, it is still locked.

3. Miscellaneous/Mechanics:

1. Bold, olive text is reserved for the mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please discuss this in your role QT.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mods may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mods so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued upon request after 24 hours of no activity.  A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement.  A player who has been prodded 2 times is subject to replacement under rule 3.9 without further notice.
6. Please do not discuss ongoing games, it can unintentionally affect the other game. Do not discuss this game in any thread that is not directly related to it.
7. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, which may include modkill(s) if needed.
8. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging. Players who fail to post for 48 hours without an announcement, or fail to post for 24 hours repeatedly, risk being subject to replacement and/or being modkilled without further notice.
9. Players who discover they are too busy to play in a game or want to leave the game for civility issues are not allowed to officially /out in the thread.  A request to /out must only be done via a post in the role QT. Please do not use this as a manipulation technique.  (Note players may continue to threaten to /out or imply that they might as long as it does not include an official request). Requests to /out are final once submitted. There will be no /outing and then /inning back into the game so make sure that when you /out you have thought it through and really want to do it. Players that can't be replaced will simply be mod-killed. Whether your request to /out will lead to replacement or a modkill is up to the mod's discretion.

[faust]

Setup:

faust9++ is a semi-open setup for 12 players. Setup generation is a randomized process that is open and explained below.

All games include a Universal Back-Up. Scum factional powers always include a 1-night Switch. The remaining 11 roles are determined by rolling six random numbers from 1-10. Each roll is separate. The following number ranges are assigned letters as shown:

1-4: T (Townie. This directly influences scum power roles.)
5: I (Investigative)
6: B (Blocking)
7: P (Protective)
8: K (Killing)
9: V (Voting)
10: W (Wildcard)

After the letters have been assigned, the mod refers to the list below to determine which power roles are included.

Investigative Roles
I = Tracker
II = Watcher
III = Tracker, Watcher
IIII = Tracker, Tracker, Watcher
IIIII = Tracker, Watcher, Watcher
IIIIII = Tracker, Tracker, Watcher, Watcher

Blocking Roles
B = Roleblocker
BB = Jailkeeper
BBB = Roleblocker, Roleblocker
BBBB = Roleblocker, Jailkeeper
BBBBB = Jailkeeper, Jailkeeper
BBBBBB = Jailkeeper, Jailkeeper, Roleblocker

Protective Roles
P = Virgin OR Bodyguard OR 1-shot Commuter*
PP = Virgin, Bodyguard
PPP = 1-shot Commuter, Bodyguard
PPPP = 1-shot Commuter, Virgin, Bodyguard
PPPPP = 1-shot Commuter, 1-shot Commuter, Bodyguard
PPPPPP = 1-shot Commuter, 1-shot Commuter, 1-shot Commuter, Bodyguard

Killing Roles
K = 1-night PGO
KK = Vigilante
KKK = 1-night PGO, Vigilante
KKKK = 1-night PGO, 1-night PGO, Vigilante
KKKKK = 1-night PGO, Vigilante, Vigilante
KKKKKK = 1-night PGO, 1-night PGO, Vigilante, Vigilante

Voting Roles
V** = Restess Spirit
VV = 1-shot Governor
VVV = Restless Spirit, 1-shot Governor
VVVV = Restless Spirit, Restless Spirit
VVVVV = Restless Spirit, Restless Spirit, 1-shot Governor
VVVVVV = Restless Spirit, Restless Spirit, 1-shot Governor, 1-shot Governor

Wildcard Roles
For the wildcard slot, the number of Ws is determined. Then a random other category (I, B, P, K or V) is determined and roles are added as though that number of that character had been rolled. Example:

    The roll is WWWBBT. The random category determined is also B. This adds to the game:
    1 Jailkeeper (from BB) + 2 Roleblockers (from BBB)

Scum Roles (In addition to the factional 1-night Switch)
TTTTTT = Goon, Goon, Goon
TTTTT = Goon, Goon, Goon; Hidden Ascetic***
TTTT = Roleblocker, 1-shot Ninja, Goon
TTT = Roleblocker, 1-shot Ninja, Goon; Hidden Ascetic***
TT = Roleblocker, 2-shot Ninja, Strongman
T = Roleblocker, 2-shot Ninja, Strongman; Hidden Ascetic***
0 Ts = Roleblocker, 2-shot Ninja, Strongman; Hidden Ascetic***

After power roles are determined from the table above, Vanilla Townies are added to arrive at 12 players.

* "Or" roles are determined randomly
** Single V rolls result in the Universal Backup converting to a Restless Spirit
*** In some cases, scum receives a Hidden Ascetic. This means that one scum player is randomly Ascetic. They are not informed about this. The role flips upon death.

Clarifications:

--If a 1-Shot PR is the first PR to die, the UB will inherit that role, even if the shot was used up. The UB will not receive a new shot. The will know if they have a shot remaining.
--If the Universal Backup converts to a Restless Spirit due to a single V roll, that player will not be informed of the conversion.
--If there is a single V roll and a single W roll that converts to V, the UB will not be converted and there will be a single Restless Spirit.
--The Universal Backup can never inherit a Restless Spirit's power.
--The Mafia factional 1-night Switch vanillaises all roles in one of the above categories (I, B, P, K, V) that the mafia chooses in one night and the following day and twilight. Wildcard roles count as their respective category. This action cannot be blocked.
--Twilight starts immediately after a lynch succeeded, even without mod confirmation.
--The mafia QT opens at the start of Twilight and closes at the start of the Day.
--A player targeted by both Bodyguard and Strongman will die, but the Bodguard will live.
--Scum actions take precedence over town actions in the action resolution chain if they are of the same category.

[faust]

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Vanilla Townie!

You have no special powers.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Universal Backup!

The first time a power role dies, you will inherit their abilities.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Tracker!

Each night, you may target 1 player. At the end of the night, you will receive a list of all players that your target targeted that night.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Watcher!

Each night, you may target 1 player. At the end of the night, you will receive a list of all players that targeted your target that night.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Roleblocker!

Each night, you may target 1 player. Each action that player takes that night or the following Twilight will be blocked.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Jailkeeper!

Each night, you may target 1 player. Each action that player takes that night or the following Twilight will be blocked. Any killing role targeting your target will fail.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Virgin!

If you killed during the night, the following night the mafia's nightkill will be blocked. Your power is permanently lost if you are targeted by a Roleblocker.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Bodyguard!

Each night, you may target 1 player. If that player is targeted by a nightkill, you die instead.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the 1-shot Commuter!

Once in the game, at night, you may choose to commute. If you do, any action targeting you that night will be blocked.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the 1-night Paranoid Gun Owner!

Once during the game, at night, you may choose to activate your power. If you do, all players targeting you that night will die.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Vigilante!

Each night, you may target 1 plaer. That player will die.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Restless Spirit!

After you have died, you may still vote in the thread, but you may not make any other posts.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the 1-shot Governor!

Once during the game, at Twilight, you may choose to activiate your power. If you do, the player with the most votes will not die.

You win when all mafia-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one town-aligned player left alive.

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Mafia Goon!

At night, you may talk with your buddies in a shared QT: [link]

You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening.

Your fakeclaim is [flavor name].

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Mafia Roleblocker!

At night, you may talk with your buddies in a shared QT: [link]
Each night, you may target one other player. Any action that player takes that night will be blocked. You may use this in addition to the factional kill.

You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening.

Your fakeclaim is [flavor name].

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Mafia 1-shot Ninja!

At night, you may talk with your buddies in a shared QT: [link]
Once in the game, at night, you may choose to use your Ninja power. If you do and perform the factional kill that night, no investigative roles will be able to see your action. Additionally, you cannot trigger a Paranoid Gun Owner.

You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening.

Your fakeclaim is [flavor name].

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Mafia 2-shot Ninja!

At night, you may talk with your buddies in a shared QT: [link]
Twice in the game, at night, you may choose to use your Ninja power. If you do and perform the factional kill that night, no investigative roles will be able to see your action. Additionally, you cannot trigger a Paranoid Gun Owner.

You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening.

Your fakeclaim is [flavor name].

Welcome, [player name]!

You are [flavor name], the Mafia Strongman!

At night, you may talk with your buddies in a shared QT: [link]
If you perform your faction's kill, no protective role targeting your target (Jailkeeper or Bodyguard) can save them.

You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening.

Your fakeclaim is [flavor name].

[LaLight]

Hm, i thought McG is the next one.

Anyway /in

[faust]

Hm, i thought McG is the next one.

I entered the queue before him.

I'm currently in the process of designing an asher9++ style setup with different roles and could uses a second pair of eyes. I intend to run it as a normal game once Worms Armageddon Mafia is done.

Just so nobody accuses me of abusing my mod powers, which I do too, but a lot more subtly.

[Calamitas]

/in

[faust]

Note that some stricter anti-lurking rules have been put in place for this game.

8. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging. Players who fail to post for 48 hours without an announcement, or fail to post for 24 hours repeatedly, risk being subject to replacement and/or being modkilled without further notice.

[schadd]

/comod if nobody cooler steps in

[LaLight]

Note that some stricter anti-lurking rules have been put in place for this game.

8. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging. Players who fail to post for 48 hours without an announcement, or fail to post for 24 hours repeatedly, risk being subject to replacement and/or being modkilled without further notice.

I never lurk
Also what's stricter? Looks like normal rules

[faust]

Note that some stricter anti-lurking rules have been put in place for this game.

8. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging. Players who fail to post for 48 hours without an announcement, or fail to post for 24 hours repeatedly, risk being subject to replacement and/or being modkilled without further notice.

I never lurk
Also what's stricter? Looks like normal rules

Before, it was multiple 48-hour periods to make you eligible for replacement.

[faust]

/comod if nobody cooler steps in

Thanks!

[gkrieg13]

/in

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

/in but I may be the polar opposite of what this game is about

[Archetype]

I have to /tag for now

Super interesting setup. Is the PGO passive? Does the Governor target someone to protect from the lynch or just gets the opportunity to activate their power every lynch? Does a Strongman on a Bodyguard target kill both the Bodyguard and the protected player?

[Roadrunner7671]

\tag

[mail-mi]

/tag

[Joseph2302]

/tag

[Robz888]

/in

[faust]

I have to /tag for now

Super interesting setup. Is the PGO passive? Does the Governor target someone to protect from the lynch or just gets the opportunity to activate their power every lynch? Does a Strongman on a Bodyguard target kill both the Bodyguard and the protected player?

All will be clear when the sample PMs get here. Hopefully.

[ashersky]

Tag

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Bump

[SpaceAnemone]

/in :-)

[schadd]

:-)

[silverspawn]

/in :-)

(-: ni\

Should have time again! Though I think I'll stick to just one game for now.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

/in :-)

(-: ni\

Should have time again! Though I think I'll stick to just one game for now.

Noice

[McGarnacle]

This seems really complicated.

[gkrieg13]

This seems really complicated.

Trust me it is less complicated than many setups out there.

[Robz888]

This seems really complicated.

Trust me it is less complicated than many setups out there.

Yeah, that's true. This is actually a very straightforward, default setup. We've run variants of it many times. Lots of fun, easy to understand.

[silverspawn]

... but hard to math out. A history of controversial debates forecasts conflict looming above us. With Calamitas at our side, I am hopeful for a Bayesian victory.

[schadd]

also pretty fun to math out

[McGarnacle]

This seems really complicated.

Trust me it is less complicated than many setups out there.

Okay, I might join, but I'm currently in 1 game and signed up for another one.

[SpaceAnemone]

... but hard to math out. A history of controversial debates forecasts conflict looming above us. With Calamitas at our side, I am hopeful for a Bayesian victory.

The priors are fun to compute, but the setup isn't so complex that you can't just brute force it.. I still have my Matlab script from the previous asher9++ setup I played :-)

[scott_pilgrim]

I think the wildcard mechanic will make things noticeably more difficult to approach mathematically.

[pacovf]

Are you playing, Scott?

[scott_pilgrim]

No, I don't plan to play mafia ever again.

[Roadrunner7671]

 

No, I don't plan to play mafia ever again.

[pacovf]

No, I don't plan to play mafia ever again.

Had to try

[SpaceAnemone]

@faust: This is a very improbable corner case, but what happens if a single "V" role converts the UB to a restless spirit, and then a single "W" roll is converted randomly to be a second single "V" roll?

[faust]

@faust: This is a very improbable corner case, but what happens if a single "V" role converts the UB to a restless spirit, and then a single "W" roll is converted randomly to be a second single "V" roll?

See OP:

--If there is a single V roll and a single W roll that converts to V, the UB will not be converted and there will be a single Restless Spirit.

[SpaceAnemone]

See OP:

--If there is a single V roll and a single W roll that converts to V, the UB will not be converted and there will be a single Restless Spirit.

Ah, my bad or failing to spot that line! Makes sense :-)

[J Reggie]

/in

[schadd]

:-)

[teamlyle]

I think it's time for me to try again.

/in. Thanks!

[LaLight]

I think it's time for me to try again.

/in. Thanks!

Wowwow, nice to see you!

[Eevee]

Just when I thought I was out
They pulled me back /in!

[schadd]

oooooo

[Robz888]

So, this will be my fourth game since my return. So far I was assigned Tracker, Mafia JOAT, and Mafia Roleblocker. I'm definitely due to be a VT, huh?

[Robz888]

And faust, can you add the scum role PMs? I don't see them. I don't know a Hidden Ascetic does.

[silverspawn]

So, this will be my fourth game since my return. So far I was assigned Tracker, Mafia JOAT, and Mafia Roleblocker. I'm definitely due to be a VT, huh?

softclaiming already? vote: Robz!

[Eevee]

Wow, just read the setup. This looks amazing.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

So, this will be my fourth game since my return. So far I was assigned Tracker, Mafia JOAT, and Mafia Roleblocker. I'm definitely due to be a VT, huh?

Totally a scum move Vote: Robz

[faust]

And faust, can you add the scum role PMs? I don't see them. I don't know a Hidden Ascetic does.

It will happen and they will be there by game start. However, due to the nature of the role there can never be a role PM for Hidden Ascetic. Please read the clarifications for that.

[mcmcsalot]

/in love the look of the setup

[Robz888]

/in love the look of the setup

[Eevee]

Oh me, oh my. Nice!!

[pacovf]

/in, I guess

[Witherweaver]

/hammer

[pacovf]

I think I had already hammered, in fact :p

[Robz888]

Do we have space for both?

[schadd]

mcmcs was the 11th and paco was the 12th, unfortunately

[LaLight]

But here's the last hot spot in British Bonkers!

[LaLight]

10. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post in the game or in Quicktopics. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.

This is interesting actually.

[2.71828.....]

/tag

[scott_pilgrim]

/tag

[faust]

Thread locked! PMs going out now.

Also I added some clarifications to the setup post. Please read them carefully.

[faust]

PMs are out! Everyone, please confirm in your QT. Night 0 starts now and lasts until Thursday at roughly noon forum time.

[faust]

All happy towns are alike; each unhappy town is unhappy in its own way.

Everything was in confusion in the Kochamma's house. The wife had discovered that the husband was carrying on an intrigue with a German girl, who had been going to his classes, and she had announced that she could not go on living in the same house as him. This position of affairs had now lasted three days, and not only the husband and wife themselves, but all the members of their family and household, were painfully conscious of it. Every person in the house felt that there was no sense in their living together, and that the stray people brought together by chance in any inn had more in common with one another than they, the members of the family and household of the Kochammas.

Day 1 begins!

Vote Count 1.0

Not Voting (12): LaLight, Calamitas, gkrieg13, JakeTheBaseballGod22, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, silverspawn, J Reggie, teamlyle, Eevee, mcmcsalot, pacovf

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 15 at noon forum time.

[J Reggie]

Good morning! I'm back on the mafia train! I'm going to be honest, I haven't really read the last few games that I wasn't in, so any meta stuff from those is going to go over my head. I know how Best Dominion Card ended, but that's about it.

Anyway, vote: mcmcsalot

[faust]

Thread locked!

[faust]

Due to certain events, this game needs to be restarted. Witherweaver will replace Jake unless Jake drops out any other games he is currently signed up for.

[faust]

Thread unlocked!

Witherweaver, can you clarify whether you still want to play?

[silverspawn]

Cool, I was already miffed about receiving a new random role.

[gkrieg13]

At least this happened at this point in the game and not later.

[pacovf]

I am confused. Are we restarting or not?

[LaLight]

I am confused. Are we restarting or not?

yes. waiting for confirmation from WW.

[Witherweaver]

Sure I can.

[silverspawn]

nooo I drew town I don't wanna restart 

[faust]

Sure I can.

Cool, thanks. Probably won't get around to this until tomorrow though.

[LaLight]

nooo I drew town I don't wanna restart 

I drew town and want to restart >:-]

[pacovf]

Well, this would have been the first time I don't draw VT. Sucks.

[pacovf]

Sucks for Faust too, who has to reset the whole thing again. Man, you are an unlucky mod.

[silverspawn]

pacovfscum?

[LaLight]

Pacovf!Restless Spirit?

[Calamitas]

drew scum 

[silverspawn]

drew scum 

VOTE: CALAMITAS

[LaLight]

oh, sure, Vote: Calamitas

[gkrieg13]

drew scum 

VOTE: CALAMITAS

Ya let's kill all the scum.

*looks at PM*

Oh. vote: WW

[pacovf]

Pacovf!Restless Spirit?

Restless Spirits sound kind of awesome though.

[silverspawn]

I just realized that votes look way more threatening if they are all all caps. I think we should introduce a rule that they count double.

[silverspawn]

http://img.pokemondb.net/sprites/black-white/anim/normal/slowbro.gif

grr, that thing killed my last one-life run 

VOTE: PACOVF

[pacovf]

Man. Just embrace the easy life. Man.

[silverspawn]

but the easy life is boring

[schadd]

i nominate j reggie for mvp. he was like the sole driving force behind town's game

[LaLight]

i nominate j reggie for mvp. he was like the sole driving force behind town's game

I'm for WW.

[mcmcsalot]

Saaaad faaaaace

[EFHW]

/tag and hi mcmc, long time no see!

[EFHW]

So, this will be my fourth game since my return. So far I was assigned Tracker, Mafia JOAT, and Mafia Roleblocker. I'm definitely due to be a VT, huh?

What were you?

[Robz888]

So, this will be my fourth game since my return. So far I was assigned Tracker, Mafia JOAT, and Mafia Roleblocker. I'm definitely due to be a VT, huh?

What were you?

Town Roleblocker. So I'm absolutely going to get VT on the do-over.

[EFHW]

It's true what they used to say, you are ALWAYS a PR!

[J Reggie]

I was the tracker. I even breadcrumbed it. Oh well. When he said thread locked I thought I had posted too early.

[Eevee]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

[J Reggie]

I've only ever been pgo as mafia, so I tried to get the town PRs to want to target me.

[LaLight]

Softclaim Watcher/other good role i suppose.

[J Reggie]

Actually vote: Eevee for bringing this up. This benefits mafia.

[Witherweaver]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

[Calamitas]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

This, town has significantly more PRs than scum so the probability of killing a town pr is just too high.

[pacovf]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

This, town has significantly more PRs than scum so the probability of killing a town pr is just too high.

Not sure of this. Town doesn't have that many targetting roles, while scum always has the factional kill

[teamlyle]

Sorry was busy today. I was VT.

[silverspawn]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

This, town has significantly more PRs than scum so the probability of killing a town pr is just too high.

Not sure of this. Town doesn't have that many targetting roles, while scum always has the factional kill

And abs(killing mafia) > abs (losing town).

[Calamitas]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

This, town has significantly more PRs than scum so the probability of killing a town pr is just too high.

Not sure of this. Town doesn't have that many targetting roles, while scum always has the factional kill

And abs(killing mafia) > abs (losing town).

Sure, but not as much as one might think. Also, scum owns the ninja trait and the utility of town targeting roles is pretty high usually in this scenario.

[pacovf]

I wonder how much these discussions are going to affect the game.

[Calamitas]

I wonder how much these discussions are going to affect the game.

They probably won't at all

[faust]

Thread locked!

Everyone will keep their QTs. New roles are posted there starting now. Everyone will also keep their flavor name (but scum fakeclaims may be exchanged with "real" flavor names where necessary); Witherweaver will receive a completely new flavor name.

In an effort to give everyone the same information, I will also share this:

The flavor names of the mafia are
Humbert Humbert (from Vladimir Nabokov's Lolita)
Ada (from Juli Zeh's Gaming Instinct)
Rodion Romanovich Raskolnikov (from Fyodor Dostoyevsky's Crime and Punishment)

They are distributed independently of roles. The old mafia QT can be found here:

https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/UpLsiz5FYSp

[faust]

All QTs have been updated! N0 begins now and lasts at least 24 hours.

[faust]

The paths that life takes aren't always so obvious. We live in a chaotic world; causation is not linear. We like that think that what happened earlier is the reason for what happened after, yet this is but a perspective we choose. What is there really to say that the American Revolution did not give rise to Luther's reformation? That Nostradamus did not foretell the rise of Hitler? That Picasso did not inspire Michelangelo?

Within a great conflux, the very lives of twelve individuals scattered across different times, different places, even different realities may be connected, intertwined. Maybe history does not so much repeat itself as it takes place at many different places at once. But humans are trapped within their own plane of existence, unable to grasp the truth that lies hidden.

Day 1 begins!

Vote Count 1.0

Not Voting (12): LaLight, Calamitas, gkrieg13, Witherweaver, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, silverspawn, J Reggie, teamlyle, Eevee, mcmcsalot, pacovf

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

[SpaceAnemone]

Good morning everyone! :-)

Vote: mcmcsalot (Hi! I don't think we've met!)

[silverspawn]

someone doesn't like physics!

vote: Robz

[Eevee]

Top of the morning!

[LaLight]

hi everyone! I jus woke up so good morning indeed!

vote: Eevee, glad to be in a same game!

[J Reggie]

Well everything I said in my previous first post applies, except for the part about being back on the mafia train. That was because I was the tracker. I'm not the tracker anymore.

Oh and vote: Ww because I always scumread you.

[silverspawn]

vote: J Reggie

[J Reggie]

vote: J Reggie

Oh and also I'm not mafia. So you can move your vote.

[silverspawn]

Claiming non-tracker for no reason is a good reason to vote this early.

[gkrieg13]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

[silverspawn]

why "will be"? Why not "is"?

[Eevee]

Since someone is going to be bring it up anyways, should we just agree on no claiming theory talk to avoid someone tipping off their role? If you agree, no reason to comment on this.

[pacovf]

vote: J Reggie because claiming non-tracker is as good a reason as any to vote for someone this early into the game.

I hadn't read the setup before /in-ing, but after being assigned scum for the briefest of times, I kind of read it in detail.

Ha! Now you can't use the "fact" that reading the setup is scummy against me, I have the perfect alibi! :p

Also nice to see some old faces around.

[teamlyle]

Hi everyone. Redemption time for me! (I swear, if someone calls me out for being "scummy" for some silly reason I'm going to be so done.)

Vote: Eevee

Gl all!

[gkrieg13]

Hi everyone. Redemption time for me! (I swear, if someone calls me out for being "scummy" for some silly reason I'm going to be so done.)

Vote: Eevee

Gl all!

Using 2 exclamation points?  Super scummy )))))

[J Reggie]

Claiming non-tracker for no reason is a good reason to vote this early.

It's not for no reason. I have a reason.

[Witherweaver]

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

[Witherweaver]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

Vote: Gkrieg

[J Reggie]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

This is straight up not true. But considering the deathproof town thing in rewind, it's not alignment-indicative.

[Eevee]

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

Interesting. I see no reason not to believe this.

[gkrieg13]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

This is straight up not true. But considering the deathproof town thing in rewind, it's not alignment-indicative.

Wait is it really not true?

[pacovf]

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

Interesting. I see no reason not to believe this.

Could be mafia preemptively explaining their survival through the game though.

[Robz888]

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

Hmm, well now we have to discuss whether it would make sense for town to claim this. The PGO reflexively kills whomever targets them, right? I guess this protects our town PRs, but it also tips off the scum. Not sure confessing was the pro-town thing to do. But on the other hand I don't really see scum!WW starting off the game like this.

[Robz888]

Good morning everyone! :-)

Vote: mcmcsalot (Hi! I don't think we've met!)

For those who don't know, mcmcsalot is another one of our super vets back from retirement. He is my younger brother in real life.

[Eevee]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

This if from before the game began.

[pacovf]

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

Hmm, well now we have to discuss whether it would make sense for town to claim this. The PGO reflexively kills whomever targets them, right? I guess this protects our town PRs, but it also tips off the scum. Not sure confessing was the pro-town thing to do. But on the other hand I don't really see scum!WW starting off the game like this.

Note that it takes a single extra letter being rolled for a revealed 1-shot PGO to be useless, since mafia gets both a roleblocker and a 1-shot ninja.

If he is town, I guess he is claiming to get the conversation started.

[pacovf]

So, while we wait, anyone have any opinions on how 1-shot PGO should be played?

I feel it's a role with a lot of possibilites.

"Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO."

This if from before the game began.

Lying town is anti-town, so I hope that's not it.

[Robz888]

Since someone is going to be bring it up anyways, should we just agree on no claiming theory talk to avoid someone tipping off their role? If you agree, no reason to comment on this.

Okay, so I automatically agreed with everything Eevee said in the last game because... we were scum together. Not letting you off so easily this time, buddy.

What did you mean by the above statement? I didn't understand.

I personally wouldn't mind a little discussion of the setup. I'm curious what people think of these weirdo voting roles. They haven't made an appearance in any game thus far (during my absence), have they?

[silverspawn]

For those who don't know, mcmcsalot is another one of our super vets back from retirement. He is my younger brother in real life.

I did not know that!

Hmm, well now we have to discuss whether it would make sense for town to claim this.

It has the downside of giving scum additional information
It has the upside of helping with claims later, and also of bypassing RVS – hopefully.

For PGO, the downside may be very low. The upside isn't huge either, but it could be good.

Since it is WW doing it I wouldn't expect a utility calculation anyway, though, so since there are reasonable upsides, I think it is definitely possible as a town move. I don't think scum has that much motivation for this kind of fakeclaim, so I'll even give him townpoints.

[silverspawn]

with "it could be good" I meant "the entire package could be good".

[Robz888]

Seems like a solid analysis, silverspawn.

[J Reggie]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

This is straight up not true. But considering the deathproof town thing in rewind, it's not alignment-indicative.

Wait is it really not true?

Scout mafia.

Also, I feel like its more likely for you to think you've been mafia in every 9++ game if you're mafia here. vote: gkrieg

[gkrieg13]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

This is straight up not true. But considering the deathproof town thing in rewind, it's not alignment-indicative.

Wait is it really not true?

Scout mafia.

Also, I feel like its more likely for you to think you've been mafia in every 9++ game if you're mafia here. vote: gkrieg

You are correct. It is something I thought about when I drew scum. So now I thought of it again because I'm town and am actually excited to be town.

[Eevee]

Since someone is going to be bring it up anyways, should we just agree on no claiming theory talk to avoid someone tipping off their role? If you agree, no reason to comment on this.

Okay, so I automatically agreed with everything Eevee said in the last game because... we were scum together. Not letting you off so easily this time, buddy.

What did you mean by the above statement? I didn't understand.

I personally wouldn't mind a little discussion of the setup. I'm curious what people think of these weirdo voting roles. They haven't made an appearance in any game thus far (during my absence), have they?

The pleasure is all mine!

I feel mafia usually gets something out of the claiming discussion when people inadvertently let something slip about their roles. If we want to have setup discussion, that's the trade-off.

[mcmcsalot]

I don't think it's super likely for scum!ww to decides o put himself out there so early for no reason.

Also I agree eevee's statement about no claiming is worrying. Unlike ww's claim, scum!eeve benefits from seeming like he's helping town whilst killing potential discussions that get the game started.

vote: eevee

[mcmcsalot]

Good morning everyone! :-)

Vote: mcmcsalot (Hi! I don't think we've met!)

Hi I don't believe we have eithe. Wonderful to play with you, quick question are you a dirty mafia member.

[Robz888]

vote: WW

Also this will be my first time not being mafia in a 9++ setup

This is straight up not true. But considering the deathproof town thing in rewind, it's not alignment-indicative.

Wait is it really not true?

Scout mafia.

Also, I feel like its more likely for you to think you've been mafia in every 9++ game if you're mafia here. vote: gkrieg

You are correct. It is something I thought about when I drew scum. So now I thought of it again because I'm town and am actually excited to be town.

Can someone elaborate on this incredibly specific feud? I feel like I missed something.

[Witherweaver]

I stop playing Mafia and suddenly nobody knows what a joke is.

[Eevee]

I stop playing Mafia and suddenly nobody knows what a joke is.

Claim cancelled?

[Robz888]

I stop playing Mafia and suddenly nobody knows what a joke is.

Wait, what? We were suppose to take your claim as a joke? It did not at all sound like a joke.

[Robz888]

Vote: WitherWeaver

I hate jokes anyway.

[Robz888]

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

What is the joke?

[mcmcsalot]

Woah woah woah, this needs to be sorted out asap. Are you joking or not WW?

[J Reggie]

Can someone elaborate on this incredibly specific feud? I feel like I missed something.

Gkrieg thought he had never been town in a 9++ setup, and I told him had. I then realized that scum!gkrieg would be more likely to think of that. Which turned out to be true, but since we restarted the game that's no longer alignment indicative.

So vote: Robz because you're scum with Eevee.

[SpaceAnemone]

Good morning everyone! :-)

Vote: mcmcsalot (Hi! I don't think we've met!)

Hi I don't believe we have eithe. Wonderful to play with you, quick question are you a dirty mafia member.

Nope! I'm squeaky clean and townie :-)

[SpaceAnemone]

I stop playing Mafia and suddenly nobody knows what a joke is.

I'm still relatively new and all, but I've been given the distinct impression that around here, jokes are those things that aren't funny unless they get explained really well, in great detail...

[silverspawn]

Ambiguity about whether something was a claim or not is really bad.

[mcmcsalot]

Scum shaming just about everyone not voting witherweaver at this point.

[Eevee]

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

[Robz888]

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

I dunno. Perhaps WW's scum plan was to claim PGO, and then after doing so he realized it was a bad idea for some reason, and is now playing it off as a joke.

I mean, that seems sort of farfetched I suppose, but I did not read the initial assertion as a joke AT ALL.

[Calamitas]

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

I dunno. Perhaps WW's scum plan was to claim PGO, and then after doing so he realized it was a bad idea for some reason, and is now playing it off as a joke.

I mean, that seems sort of farfetched I suppose, but I did not read the initial assertion as a joke AT ALL.

Well, he used exactly the same phrase as before the start of the game.

[Robz888]

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

I dunno. Perhaps WW's scum plan was to claim PGO, and then after doing so he realized it was a bad idea for some reason, and is now playing it off as a joke.

I mean, that seems sort of farfetched I suppose, but I did not read the initial assertion as a joke AT ALL.

Well, he used exactly the same phrase as before the start of the game.

Oh. Did not remember that.

[mcmcsalot]

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

I dunno. Perhaps WW's scum plan was to claim PGO, and then after doing so he realized it was a bad idea for some reason, and is now playing it off as a joke.

I mean, that seems sort of farfetched I suppose, but I did not read the initial assertion as a joke AT ALL.

Well, he used exactly the same phrase as before the start of the game.

Oh. Did not remember that.

I don't think that actually matters. If anything, it just provides scum more protection to make such a claim.

[Calamitas]

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

I dunno. Perhaps WW's scum plan was to claim PGO, and then after doing so he realized it was a bad idea for some reason, and is now playing it off as a joke.

I mean, that seems sort of farfetched I suppose, but I did not read the initial assertion as a joke AT ALL.

Well, he used exactly the same phrase as before the start of the game.

Oh. Did not remember that.

I don't think that actually matters. If anything, it just provides scum more protection to make such a claim.

It matters, it increases the probability of him making a joke by a landslide.

[Eevee]

I really think innocent joke is a much more likely scenario than a scum plot that was suddenly abandoned for no reason at all.

[pacovf]

So, uh, WW, just to be clear: are you a PGO?

[Witherweaver]

Did no one read the thread before the game started?

[Witherweaver]

I wonder how much these discussions are going to affect the game.

They probably won't at all

I like to falsify things people say.

[Calamitas]

I wonder how much these discussions are going to affect the game.

They probably won't at all

I like to falsify things people say.

I didn't make a definite statement so you didn't falsify me there

[Witherweaver]

I wonder how much these discussions are going to affect the game.

They probably won't at all

I like to falsify things people say.

I didn't make a definite statement so you didn't falsify me there

Okay but I can still say 'haha you were wrong'

[pacovf]

So, uh, WW, just to be clear: are you a PGO?

[teamlyle]

Wait I really don't understand why this isn't clearly a joke.

[teamlyle]

I don't think that WW wants to claim so let's just leave him be. It seems scummy to pressure someone into claiming.

[pacovf]

So, what, we are just going to let people claim without being accountable for it?

Sure, next we know scum will be claiming tracker at L-1, and then be all like "haha I claimed what now? no no I was joking duh" the next day.

If WW does not want to claim now, that's fine with me, but if he comes out later saying that he actually is a PGO, I am voting for him and keeping my vote there. Due to the setup, even a single town being unclear about his role means that scum can't be counterclaimed anymore.

[teamlyle]

If WW does not want to claim now, that's fine with me, but if he comes out later saying that he actually is a PGO, I am voting for him and keeping my vote there. Due to the setup, even a single town being unclear about his role means that scum can't be counterclaimed anymore.

That's fair enough I think. He could be "claiming" PGO in order to not get tracked.

[gkrieg13]

PGO is one-night anyway right?  So even with that knowledge it's still a little bit of WIFOM when e chooses to use it.

[LaLight]

Hey!

Was VLA, will catch up soon. For now looks like RVS is done which is fine

[LaLight]

Huh, I haven't believed WW for a second (does that mean I know what the joke is? I even chuckled seeing his claim)
And I don't like how Robz is trying to move that to a wagon. So, semi-serious Vote: Robz888

[gkrieg13]

Well Robz is always scum.

[Eevee]

I'm more suspicious of the people going out of their way to find an obvious joke scummy than I am of WW (who was kidding and didn't mean the claim to mean anything, guys).

[silverspawn]

Wait I really don't understand why this isn't clearly a joke.

because people have stuff on their mind and don't remember the pregame.

[Witherweaver]

I think

Vote: Robz

[Eevee]

Is scumRobz a hothead though? To me his reaction read more like somneone letting their frustration cloud their judgement. I feel mafia would want to be a little more subtle about something like this.

[Eevee]

I don't think it's super likely for scum!ww to decides o put himself out there so early for no reason.

Also I agree eevee's statement about no claiming is worrying. Unlike ww's claim, scum!eeve benefits from seeming like he's helping town whilst killing potential discussions that get the game started.

vote: eevee

I read this as a typo in the first sentence. You meant unlikely, right?

Scum shaming just about everyone not voting witherweaver at this point.

This looks wayyy scummier for me - pushing the "case" that seemed to have at least some people behind it, going even to the length of shaming people who aren't voting for WW - while simultaneously not voting for him themself.

Vote: mcmc

[teamlyle]

Woah woah woah, this needs to be sorted out asap. Are you joking or not WW?

I agree with Eevee. Vote: mcmc

[Witherweaver]

Describing Robz thus far as a hothead seems quite an exaggeration. 

[J Reggie]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

[Witherweaver]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

So does anyone know how they played in that game?

[Eevee]

Describing Robz thus far as a hothead seems quite an exaggeration.

Hotheaded with wielding his vote. Voting for you for looks like an emotional reaction, rather than a result of any analysis.

[Witherweaver]

Or a fake reaction.

[Eevee]

Or a fake reaction.

Yeah. But is being trigger-happy over nothing (how I feel about that joke's relevance to your alignment) really what he'd want to fake?

[Witherweaver]

Or a fake reaction.

Yeah. But is being trigger-happy over nothing (how I feel about that joke's relevance to your alignment) really what he'd want to fake?

Sure; being scum is hard and you feel the need to say things about things.

[SpaceAnemone]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

So does anyone know how they played in that game?

I was the third scum with them :-) It's the only game I've ever had with Eevee, and he seemed nice and friendly. Eevee and Robz actively decided there to play there as if they're pleased to see each other, and to work with the fact that people are unlikely to want to lynch off a returning vet too quickly. That might be something to watch out for here, too.

[Eevee]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

It's funny, in that game I was a nervous wreck all the time thinking they are one step away from catching me. Now that I'm town, your words can't hurt me!

Also, nice to meet you! I think it's our first game together. You seem the kind of guy who gets things moving, that's a quality in a person I really appreciate when playing these games.

[J Reggie]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

It's funny, in that game I was a nervous wreck all the time thinking they are one step away from catching me. Now that I'm town, your words can't hurt me!

Also, nice to meet you! I think it's our first game together. You seem the kind of guy who gets things moving, that's a quality in a person I really appreciate when playing these games.

One thing I know about you from reading the end of forum survivor is that you're really likeable and good at forming individual relationships with people. So while I appreciate the compliment, I don't think it means you're town necessarily.

[teamlyle]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

It's funny, in that game I was a nervous wreck all the time thinking they are one step away from catching me. Now that I'm town, your words can't hurt me!

Also, nice to meet you! I think it's our first game together. You seem the kind of guy who gets things moving, that's a quality in a person I really appreciate when playing these games.

Hmmm.

Eevee used the "flatter strategy" last game and fooled you all. He did it to me in forum survivor too (not meaning it in a bad way, you played really well in forum survivor.) I'm not going to change my vote since I'm still suspicious of mcmc, but just saying I find this scummy.

[pacovf]

That's just Eevee being Eevee though.

For the record, I don't think WW's joke was scummy per se, but I dislike his refusal to state clearly whether he is a PGO. While I understand why he wouldn't want to do so as town, it sets a dangerous precedent that scum will be more than happy to abuse.

[teamlyle]

Yeah. He also changed the subject instead of saying he'd rather not claim.

[gkrieg13]

vote: eevee

[Witherweaver]

I don't see any reason why I should claim.

[Witherweaver]

I mean, I was never claiming PGO, which should have been very clear.

[Eevee]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

It's funny, in that game I was a nervous wreck all the time thinking they are one step away from catching me. Now that I'm town, your words can't hurt me!

Also, nice to meet you! I think it's our first game together. You seem the kind of guy who gets things moving, that's a quality in a person I really appreciate when playing these games.

Hmmm.

Eevee used the "flatter strategy" last game and fooled you all. He did it to me in forum survivor too (not meaning it in a bad way, you played really well in forum survivor.) I'm not going to change my vote since I'm still suspicious of mcmc, but just saying I find this scummy.

Just trying to make this a pleasant environment for people to play! I did mean what I said too.

I distinctly even recall winning an award a few years back for being so nice to people in mafia games. I don't think I like this development of people thinking me being nice has to have a nefarious purpose now.

[silverspawn]

Eevee buddying is not scummy.

WW not clarifying is not scummy either. he's not supposed to claim non-PGO. He said it was a joke. he didn't claim.

[Robz888]

I think

Vote: Robz

Describing Robz thus far as a hothead seems quite an exaggeration.

Well, which is it? You didn't explain your vote--of course--but I presume it was the same reason Calamitas voted for me, because I found your joke scummy. I didn't realize it was a joke when I voted for you, because there was no context whatsoever if you had missed your earlier statement, so I don't see how this is an indictment of me.

[Robz888]

Is scumRobz a hothead though? To me his reaction read more like somneone letting their frustration cloud their judgement. I feel mafia would want to be a little more subtle about something like this.

I don't know if I was frustrated before. I'm sort of frustrated now.

[Robz888]

I mean, I was never claiming PGO, which should have been very clear.

I'm a Jailkeeper.

[Robz888]

(It should be really clear I'm not claiming Jailkeeper, though.)

[Robz888]

Why is no one laughing?

[Eevee]

Is scumRobz a hothead though? To me his reaction read more like somneone letting their frustration cloud their judgement. I feel mafia would want to be a little more subtle about something like this.

I don't know if I was frustrated before. I'm sort of frustrated now.

What's making you frustrated?

If it's WW's joke, the onus is on him for making it clear to readers that he's kidding, but isn't this also a no harm no foul situation?

I guess, walking down the path what if WW is scum, they did get to fish for counterclaims "for free" here. Really creative if that's what happened, but doesn't feel likely to me.

[silverspawn]

If it's any consolation, I found your joke about as funny as WW's

[Robz888]

Is scumRobz a hothead though? To me his reaction read more like somneone letting their frustration cloud their judgement. I feel mafia would want to be a little more subtle about something like this.

I don't know if I was frustrated before. I'm sort of frustrated now.

What's making you frustrated?

If it's WW's joke, the onus is on him for making it clear to readers that he's kidding, but isn't this also a no harm no foul situation?

I guess, walking down the path what if WW is scum, they did get to fish for counterclaims "for free" here. Really creative if that's what happened, but doesn't feel likely to me.

Now that I have a full and clear understanding of what happened, I don't think it's particularly scummy to make that joke, no. It's a little scummy to allow the ambiguity to persist for a while, but whatever. I'm frustrated that people don't get that.

[silverspawn]

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.1

mcmcsalot (3): SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle
Eevee (2): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13
Witherweaver (1): Robz888
J Reggie (2): silverspawn, pacovf
Robz888 (3): J Reggie, LaLight, Witherweaver

Not Voting (1): Calamitas

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

[SpaceAnemone]

Why is no one laughing?

Oh.. I kind of am actually! Just a bit of a delayed reaction :-)

[SpaceAnemone]

Eevee buddying is not scummy.

WW not clarifying is not scummy either. he's not supposed to claim non-PGO. He said it was a joke. he didn't claim.

This is true. Claiming whether or not he's a PGO (or other role) leaves the game in a state where there's more claimed information than we had to begin with, and therefore is not the same as "undoing" the joke.

I think the ambiguity he left us with was interesting for a while... maybe it's a scum move to see what people do, but also the rest of us get to observe everyone's reactions, and it moved the early game along nicely, so I don't think that's so bad. I disagree with Eevee's thing about scum possibly fishing for counterclaims (#212), because it's perfectly possible to have up to three PGOs in the game (rolling Vs and Ws), or at least two PGOs in conjunction with any other role in the game, so there's nothing to fish for there.

[Witherweaver]

I didn't actually consider any counter-claiming scenario. 

[Eevee]

Eevee buddying is not scummy.

WW not clarifying is not scummy either. he's not supposed to claim non-PGO. He said it was a joke. he didn't claim.

This is true. Claiming whether or not he's a PGO (or other role) leaves the game in a state where there's more claimed information than we had to begin with, and therefore is not the same as "undoing" the joke.

I think the ambiguity he left us with was interesting for a while... maybe it's a scum move to see what people do, but also the rest of us get to observe everyone's reactions, and it moved the early game along nicely, so I don't think that's so bad. I disagree with Eevee's thing about scum possibly fishing for counterclaims (#212), because it's perfectly possible to have up to three PGOs in the game (rolling Vs and Ws), or at least two PGOs in conjunction with any other role in the game, so there's nothing to fish for there.

My mistake, I didn't know there could be multiples.

[SpaceAnemone]

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

[pacovf]

I disagree with Eevee's thing about scum possibly fishing for counterclaims (#212), because it's perfectly possible to have up to three PGOs in the game (rolling Vs and Ws), or at least two PGOs in conjunction with any other role in the game, so there's nothing to fish for there.

I was going to say that isn't true, but turns out I hadn't understood how W worked. Huh. Ok.

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

This is a good question.

[teamlyle]

Yep, Robz and Eevee are scum. And just to be clear, I didn't read the game where they were scum together recently, but I know they would play differently here. Or even better one would and the other wouldn't.

It's funny, in that game I was a nervous wreck all the time thinking they are one step away from catching me. Now that I'm town, your words can't hurt me!

Also, nice to meet you! I think it's our first game together. You seem the kind of guy who gets things moving, that's a quality in a person I really appreciate when playing these games.

Hmmm.

Eevee used the "flatter strategy" last game and fooled you all. He did it to me in forum survivor too (not meaning it in a bad way, you played really well in forum survivor.) I'm not going to change my vote since I'm still suspicious of mcmc, but just saying I find this scummy.

Just trying to make this a pleasant environment for people to play! I did mean what I said too.

I distinctly even recall winning an award a few years back for being so nice to people in mafia games. I don't think I like this development of people thinking me being nice has to have a nefarious purpose now.

Sorry if I offended you. I didn't mean a "nefarious" purpose, I just meant that if you were scum you could use that to your advantage.

[silverspawn]

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

This is a good question.

... to ask yourself silently! But less to to answer here.

[Robz888]

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

This is a good question.

... to ask yourself silently! But less to to answer here.

Why?

[silverspawn]

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

This is a good question.

... to ask yourself silently! But less to to answer here.

Why?

Because ww's reading, and he's hard enough to detect without giving him hints what to pay attention to.

[gkrieg13]

Because ww's reading, and he's hard enough to detect without giving him hints what to pay attention to.

I agree that WW is hard to detect, but I think that is not because he knows how to not be scummy.  You can say that it is difficult D1 to detect scum!WW and you would be correct.

[pacovf]

After a super fast reread, I don't like mcmc nor teamlyle. mcmc is superbuddying Robz and giving me the bad feels, Teamlyle is throwing suspicion on Eevee in a very hedgy, non-committal way.

I think I like what I've seen from Calamitas and silver.

I am annoyed by ww, but silver is right in that it's not an alignment tell for ww.

vote: mcmc

[mcmcsalot]

That's just Eevee being Eevee though.

For the record, I don't think WW's joke was scummy per se, but I dislike his refusal to state clearly whether he is a PGO. While I understand why he wouldn't want to do so as town, it sets a dangerous precedent that scum will be more than happy to abuse.

This is the big deal. WW has almost refused to comment on what was definitely a claim, fake or not. (the amount of people saying I knew it was a joke is ridiculous)

It's one of those situations where ww is either scum or was anti town right out of the gate and there are a strange number of people specifically eevee, defending ww after then I expect.

[mcmcsalot]

After a super fast reread, I don't like mcmc nor teamlyle. mcmc is superbuddying Robz and giving me the bad feels, Teamlyle is throwing suspicion on Eevee in a very hedgy, non-committal way.

I think I like what I've seen from Calamitas and silver.

I am annoyed by ww, but silver is right in that it's not an alignment tell for ww.

vote: mcmc

Robz and I are super close, restating we are brothers in a game where I don't know robz alignment will help in future games. Let it be known robz and I will always have a "strange thing" going on between us as all our comments are colored by our relationship.

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, I was never claiming PGO, which should have been very clear.

Good a comment finally. Now vote:eevee

[mcmcsalot]

I don't agree with that. I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

This is a good question.

... to ask yourself silently! But less to to answer here.

Why?

I also think that this interaction is strange though I believe that is because they are implying this so called "humor" I am hearing about which has no place in a game of deceit.

All in all it's not that intriguing what silver thinks is scum behavior for we but anyone's thoughts on scum behavior of anyone is helpful to discuss...again I think this in the long run means very little.

[SpaceAnemone]

What would be scum-indicative behaviour, coming from WW, in your opinion?

This is a good question.

... to ask yourself silently! But less to to answer here.

Why?

I also think that this interaction is strange though I believe that is because they are implying this so called "humor" I am hearing about which has no place in a game of deceit.

All in all it's not that intriguing what silver thinks is scum behavior for we but anyone's thoughts on scum behavior of anyone is helpful to discuss...again I think this in the long run means very little.

I assume "we" should be "WW", there.

The comment from silver that kicked it off was:

I think it's anti-town to let the ambiguity continue, but I don't think anti town behavior is a scum tell for WW.

(Annoyingly, the pyramid-quoting limit won't let me quote this all as a pyramid.)

Anyway, I don't see where your (mcmc's) humour issue is. I think the conversation makes sense. Silver asserts that WW plays anti-town in a scum or a town alignment, so he doesn't think WW is being necessarily scummy by doing something anti-town. I felt that silver's comment gave him too much license to town-read a potential scum-buddy, so I made a comment to highlight that, which Paco also seemed to agree was an issue. No humour going on here so far...

Silver's defence of his comment -- that it's not good to tell WW what his actual scum-tells might be -- is kind of valid, but it dodges the point that silver isn't giving the rest of us anything particularly falsifiable to work with, in terms of what he'd look like making an unjustified town-read on WW... so I'm likely just not to trust things silver says about WW for now.

Were you reading this exchange another way? If so, what am I missing?

[pacovf]

After a super fast reread, I don't like mcmc nor teamlyle. mcmc is superbuddying Robz and giving me the bad feels, Teamlyle is throwing suspicion on Eevee in a very hedgy, non-committal way.

I think I like what I've seen from Calamitas and silver.

I am annoyed by ww, but silver is right in that it's not an alignment tell for ww.

vote: mcmc

Robz and I are super close, restating we are brothers in a game where I don't know robz alignment will help in future games. Let it be known robz and I will always have a "strange thing" going on between us as all our comments are colored by our relationship.

Yeah, I knew you were brothers, but still... *scratches head* anyone that has played with both of them at once can tell me whether this level of buddying is normal?

[Robz888]

Where did this notion that regardless of alignment, WW plays anti-town, come from? It is 100% at odds with my memory of WW.

Mcmc buddying me is like the least alignment-indicative thing in the world.

[pacovf]

I would still like an answer from somebody else, if you don't mind

[silverspawn]

Where did this notion that regardless of alignment, WW plays anti-town, come from? It is 100% at odds with my memory of WW.

Mcmc buddying me is like the least alignment-indicative thing in the world.

I at least did not say that. I said anti-town play is not alignment-indicative. He does it as town sometimes and as scum sometimes. Not all the time.

Mcmc buddying might be normal. But is his handling of the WW thing also normal?

[Eevee]

That's just Eevee being Eevee though.

For the record, I don't think WW's joke was scummy per se, but I dislike his refusal to state clearly whether he is a PGO. While I understand why he wouldn't want to do so as town, it sets a dangerous precedent that scum will be more than happy to abuse.

This is the big deal. WW has almost refused to comment on what was definitely a claim, fake or not. (the amount of people saying I knew it was a joke is ridiculous)

It's one of those situations where ww is either scum or was anti town right out of the gate and there are a strange number of people specifically eevee, defending ww after then I expect.

Bolding mine. I can't speak for others, but I read it as a legitimate claim first and reacted as such, but WW's next three posts being:

I stop playing Mafia and suddenly nobody knows what a joke is.

Did no one read the thread before the game started?

I wonder how much these discussions are going to affect the game.

They probably won't at all

I like to falsify things people say.

cleared all the ambiguity for me. And sure, I'd like to reiterate that I believe the onus should be on WW to make his jokes clear for other people, and the fact he didn't even think there could be counterclaim issues makes what he did definitely anti-town, but it looks more like a thoughtless mistake than a mafia ploy to me (and luckily, given the setup there was no risk, or if there was some risk I'm not seeing it seems it didn't come to be).

[Eevee]

Mcmc buddying might be normal. But is his handling of the WW thing also normal?

I don't remember mcmc as particularly buddybuddy (or particularly non-buddybuddy for that matter) against Robz (although I guess they usually tend to agree on things?), but his handling of the WW thing read to me as someone who wasn't reading the thread very carefully.

[gkrieg13]

Mcmc buddying might be normal. But is his handling of the WW thing also normal?

I don't remember mcmc as particularly buddybuddy (or particularly non-buddybuddy for that matter) against Robz (although I guess they usually tend to agree on things?), but his handling of the WW thing read to me as someone who wasn't reading the thread very carefully.

What does that indicate for alignment?

[Robz888]

Mcmc buddying might be normal. But is his handling of the WW thing also normal?

I don't remember mcmc as particularly buddybuddy (or particularly non-buddybuddy for that matter) against Robz (although I guess they usually tend to agree on things?), but his handling of the WW thing read to me as someone who wasn't reading the thread very carefully.

Yeah, I wouldn't even call it buddying as much as, we just think similarly a lot of the time. Not all the time.

[Robz888]

I don't really think the WW thing is a scum master ploy either, it was just sort of annoying and I didn't get it at first, and I think that's WW's fault not mine.

[Eevee]

Mcmc buddying might be normal. But is his handling of the WW thing also normal?

I don't remember mcmc as particularly buddybuddy (or particularly non-buddybuddy for that matter) against Robz (although I guess they usually tend to agree on things?), but his handling of the WW thing read to me as someone who wasn't reading the thread very carefully.

What does that indicate for alignment?

Well, regardless of alignment, I think that mcmc knows the game so well that regardless of alignment, he can analyze if any behavior is protown or antitown. That one thing? I would say scum is probably more likely to be careful, and town is more likely to try to antagonize someone, so while I disagree with the content, I'm not seeing a scum narrative.

That's not based on anything mcmc-specific though, I don't really have any specific guide in my head to reading him. One of the harder guys to read too, I used to always think he was scum and be wrong, and then be totally fooled when he finally was scum.

[mcmcsalot]

?
(Annoyingly, the pyramid-quoting limit won't let me quote this all as a pyramid.)

Anyway, I don't see where your (mcmc's) humour issue is. I think the conversation makes sense. Silver asserts that WW plays anti-town in a scum or a town alignment, so he doesn't think WW is being necessarily scummy by doing something anti-town. I felt that silver's comment gave him too much license to town-read a potential scum-buddy, so I made a comment to highlight that, which Paco also seemed to agree was an issue. No humour going on here so far...

Silver's defence of his comment -- that it's not good to tell WW what his actual scum-tells might be -- is kind of valid, but it dodges the point that silver isn't giving the rest of us anything particularly falsifiable to work with, in terms of what he'd look like making an unjustified town-read on WW... so I'm likely just not to trust things silver says about WW for now.

Were you reading this exchange another way? If so, what am I missing?

It wasn't so much of an issue and more of a comment about people joking being unhelpful. The series of posts seemed to be a bit confusing as silvers original response lacked complete context of why not answering the question publicly would be bad. Once silver cleared it up the reasoning actually made sense and wasn't something I had thought of. So no problems.

[mcmcsalot]

Also want to clarify I was most upset at other people blowing off the ww claim before ww came in and followed up.

[Eevee]

I mean, I was never claiming PGO, which should have been very clear.

Good a comment finally. Now vote:eevee

Why me?

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, I was never claiming PGO, which should have been very clear.

Good a comment finally. Now vote:eevee

Why me?

I was and am suspicious of you. I didn't realize I was voting you already at the time.ill explain why I'm voting you in the next post.

[mcmcsalot]

Since someone is going to be bring it up anyways, should we just agree on no claiming theory talk to avoid someone tipping off their role? If you agree, no reason to comment on this.

First we have your scummy let's not let the discussion grow organically and before anyone can comment agree on no theory talk. Slight suspicion here and shortly after we get this...

Hi guys; I'm a one-shot PGO.

Interesting. I see no reason not to believe this.

A claim and you outright believing it. Which I agree with but am not quite sure why it needs to be individually acknowledged, this is a classic "I'm contributing" post.

Then these two posts happen:

I stop playing Mafia and suddenly nobody knows what a joke is.

Claim cancelled?

I really think innocent joke is a much more likely scenario than a scum plot that was suddenly abandoned for no reason at all.

So WW comes in and makes a pretty ambiguous statement, and you latch on like obviously it's a harmless joke. Also while I agree I think WW made an anti town joke, the scum narrative here is definitely not fake claim day one and hope it works, it's to joke about a claim and provide discussion/confusion/potentially counterclaims/potentially provides an alibi.

All in all you seem to have been pushing people to believe the things that you want them to and passing it off like it's just what everyone thinks. Also how quickly you went from being super concerned about theory talk to defending WW and trying to see if you could get anyone pushing against WW lynched is super scummy. The chances that scum!eevee saw town!ww make an anti town move and you are now using that to safely scumhunt people who through shade at WW.

[Eevee]

I'll name them quotes 1-3, easier to post and it's the next post anyways.

1.) My logic was: If we are not going to massclaim anyways, talking about the merits back and forth usually results in some people slipping about having/not having a role. It was top of mind because in the just ended game where I was scum with Robz and SA, we had the "so who has a power role" hunt based on the theory talk of day 1. I don't know, I felt it was worth it to float the idea of avoiding that, especially now that more people are likely to have roles. It's not like I tried to ban theory talk, just thought to remind people that if you feel you don't want to massclaim or anyone to claim, probably the best course of action is not to talk about claiming.

2.) Eh, I was online and saw a claim early day 1 and reacted. Would do it again, would encourage others to act the same way!

To further explain myself, I outright believed it after considering if I thought it was likely WW would do that as scum (decided no, posted about it in the thread).

3. I don't think that's ambiguous - looks clear as day to me that he wouldn't say that unless he had meant it as a joke. Not sure what's happening here, but others seem to agree with me.

I don't understand your scum narrative - has anyone ever played scum like that?

It's not my intention to push people to believe anything. I'm trying to post my opinions about events in the game to discuss them and figure things out.

And meh, I just thought people throwing shade at WW were being very short-sighted, not considering "Hey, does this make sense for mafia", but just posting "Hey, it's annoying he made a bad joke, must not be on the same side as me!" out of frustration. Robz even admitted as much here:

I don't really think the WW thing is a scum master ploy either, it was just sort of annoying and I didn't get it at first, and I think that's WW's fault not mine.

I totally agree that it was WW's fault, but not that it's particularly productive to blame him for it, especially since there was no bad consequence as far as I can tell.

[silverspawn]

not buying the eevee case.

vote: mcmc

[Calamitas]

I'll name them quotes 1-3, easier to post and it's the next post anyways.

1.) My logic was: If we are not going to massclaim anyways, talking about the merits back and forth usually results in some people slipping about having/not having a role. It was top of mind because in the just ended game where I was scum with Robz and SA, we had the "so who has a power role" hunt based on the theory talk of day 1. I don't know, I felt it was worth it to float the idea of avoiding that, especially now that more people are likely to have roles. It's not like I tried to ban theory talk, just thought to remind people that if you feel you don't want to massclaim or anyone to claim, probably the best course of action is not to talk about claiming.

2.) Eh, I was online and saw a claim early day 1 and reacted. Would do it again, would encourage others to act the same way!

To further explain myself, I outright believed it after considering if I thought it was likely WW would do that as scum (decided no, posted about it in the thread).

3. I don't think that's ambiguous - looks clear as day to me that he wouldn't say that unless he had meant it as a joke. Not sure what's happening here, but others seem to agree with me.

I don't understand your scum narrative - has anyone ever played scum like that?

It's not my intention to push people to believe anything. I'm trying to post my opinions about events in the game to discuss them and figure things out.

And meh, I just thought people throwing shade at WW were being very short-sighted, not considering "Hey, does this make sense for mafia", but just posting "Hey, it's annoying he made a bad joke, must not be on the same side as me!" out of frustration. Robz even admitted as much here:

I don't really think the WW thing is a scum master ploy either, it was just sort of annoying and I didn't get it at first, and I think that's WW's fault not mine.

I totally agree that it was WW's fault, but not that it's particularly productive to blame him for it, especially since there was no bad consequence as far as I can tell.

This basically. I don't think scum!eevee would actually try to act anti-town D1, it just doesn't make sense.

[mcmcsalot]

3. I don't think that's ambiguous - looks clear as day to me that he wouldn't say that unless he had meant it as a joke. Not sure what's happening here, but others seem to agree with me.

I don't understand your scum narrative - has anyone ever played scum like that?

It's not my intention to push people to believe anything. I'm trying to post my opinions about events in the game to discuss them and figure things out.

And meh, I just thought people throwing shade at WW were being very short-sighted, not considering "Hey, does this make sense for mafia", but just posting "Hey, it's annoying he made a bad joke, must not be on the same side as me!" out of frustration. Robz even admitted as much here:

I don't really think the WW thing is a scum master ploy either, it was just sort of annoying and I didn't get it at first, and I think that's WW's fault not mine.

I totally agree that it was WW's fault, but not that it's particularly productive to blame him for it, especially since there was no bad consequence as far as I can tell.

Underlined response 1. I'm sorry..."I stopped playing mafia and no one knows what a joke is" is NOT clear as day saying hey the post I made earlier where I claimed a role was 100% a joke and should be disregarded.

Underlined response 2. What don't you understand about it...I think it is plausible scum!ww makes a claim hoping to confuse people planning on saying it was just a joke when any suspicion gets turned on him for making the claim. I just thought you were downplaying things by saying it would be a bad move for scum to just fakeclaim and then drop it.

As for the rest of your defense, that would be great if I was super suspicious of ww and being shortsighted. But I always just said I wanted ww to clarify, it's because you were so confident so early and started going after people before ww clarified that is why I was voting for you.

[Eevee]

I think I commented on this earlier, but from last game I can tell I'm more of the "so scared to become the target it's crippling" persuasion as a scum player, far from the brash "let's be antitown on purpose, they'll never catch me!" type.

[mcmcsalot]

@calamatis I believe you are confused, that scum narrative eevee said he doesn't believe is the scum narrative for ww acting anti town, not for eevee. And to clarify again I don't think ww is scum, but I don't like eevee downplaying the possibility that ww is.

[SpaceAnemone]

It was top of mind because in the just ended game where I was scum with Robz and SA, we had the "so who has a power role" hunt based on the theory talk of day 1. I don't know, I felt it was worth it to float the idea of avoiding that, especially now that more people are likely to have roles. It's not like I tried to ban theory talk, just thought to remind people that if you feel you don't want to massclaim or anyone to claim, probably the best course of action is not to talk about claiming.

But this current game is very different from LL's game, so why is that worrying for you? In terms of expectations, actually fewer townies are likely to have roles here than in LL's game: I make it that three players on average should have roles here, with a variance close to one. (LL's game turned out to have four town PRs, though with a mechanism that limited their efficacy). The big difference between that setup and this one is that there it was a completely closed invented setup, whereas here we know the distribution from which our roles have been chosen, and what all the roles are, so naturally any theory talk will be quite different.

So in terms of immediate reaction to WW's post, you've said:

To further explain myself, I outright believed it after considering if I thought it was likely WW would do that as scum (decided no, posted about it in the thread).

But then in retrospect you say this:

3. I don't think that's ambiguous - looks clear as day to me that he wouldn't say that unless he had meant it as a joke.

... which seems to be a u-turn on the outright belief front.

Not sure what's happening here, but others seem to agree with me.

I'm unconvinced by this statement, though it does illustrate mcmc's point about how you've been saying things and then "passing it off like it's just what everyone thinks" (from post #248).

PPE 4

[Eevee]

I disagree about both your underlined points!

[J Reggie]

I feel like we're baking up a lot of the wrong trees. If Robz and Eevee are scum we're best off lynching one of them D1.

I have a plan. Each person should claim a PR that they're not. Each claim should be different from the last. This limits scum but not town.

[mcmcsalot]

I disagree about both your underlined points!

Unhelpful post is unhelpful...it does pad your post count though

[Eevee]

It was top of mind because in the just ended game where I was scum with Robz and SA, we had the "so who has a power role" hunt based on the theory talk of day 1. I don't know, I felt it was worth it to float the idea of avoiding that, especially now that more people are likely to have roles. It's not like I tried to ban theory talk, just thought to remind people that if you feel you don't want to massclaim or anyone to claim, probably the best course of action is not to talk about claiming.

But this current game is very different from LL's game, so why is that worrying for you? In terms of expectations, actually fewer townies are likely to have roles here than in LL's game: I make it that three players on average should have roles here, with a variance close to one. (LL's game turned out to have four town PRs, though with a mechanism that limited their efficacy). The big difference between that setup and this one is that there it was a completely closed invented setup, whereas here we know the distribution from which our roles have been chosen, and what all the roles are, so naturally any theory talk will be quite different.

Sure, you are right (again!) with the setup stuff. I think this has happened to me previously, I just offhandedly get a thought and since its RVS, I go post it. You know, totally not convinced it couldn't be a good idea to theory talk in this setup. Just popped into my mind what the downside could be, so I posted about it. I didn't really do any math or even much thinking about the setup when posting that.


So in terms of immediate reaction to WW's post, you've said:

To further explain myself, I outright believed it after considering if I thought it was likely WW would do that as scum (decided no, posted about it in the thread).

But then in retrospect you say this:

3. I don't think that's ambiguous - looks clear as day to me that he wouldn't say that unless he had meant it as a joke.

... which seems to be a u-turn on the outright belief front.[/quote]
The two posts are referring to different things - the first is a reaction to WW's claim, and the second a reaction to his next post where he said it was a joke.

Not sure what's happening here, but others seem to agree with me.

I'm unconvinced by this statement, though it does illustrate mcmc's point about how you've been saying things and then "passing it off like it's just what everyone thinks" (from post #248).

PPE 4
[/quote]
Hmm, upon checking back, you are right about that, it was just teamlyle who thought the explanation was obvious.

Wait I really don't understand why this isn't clearly a joke.

[Eevee]

Huh, I haven't believed WW for a second (does that mean I know what the joke is? I even chuckled seeing his claim)
And I don't like how Robz is trying to move that to a wagon. So, semi-serious Vote: Robz888

I guess LL too,

Wait I really don't understand why this isn't clearly a joke.

because people have stuff on their mind and don't remember the pregame.

No wait, ss ja LL too!

[Calamitas]

@calamatis I believe you are confused, that scum narrative eevee said he doesn't believe is the scum narrative for ww acting anti town, not for eevee. And to clarify again I don't think ww is scum, but I don't like eevee downplaying the possibility that ww is.

Do you genuinely think scum!WW is more likely to open a game like that than town!WW? If not, his statement isn't scum indicative at all. And I think that was the mainpart eevee's comment has been about:
Not that the overall probability of him being scum is particularly low but rather that this specific piece of information isn't actual evidence for him being scum.

PPE:3

[Eevee]

I disagree about both your underlined points!

Unhelpful post is unhelpful...it does pad your post count though

Well, I disagree that WW's post didn't make it completely clear that he was kidding, it certainly did to me, and at least some others. I don't want this to become a trolling war, but are you maybe saying that teamlyle, ss and LL are all scum too for thinking it was obvious? I just really don't see a point in arguing over whether that was obvious to someone, as only they can know. You know, if you are town and really didn't get that he was kidding from that and think it's unreasonable for others to have, you probably aren't changing your mind. If you are scum and it's all a fabrication, you definitely aren't.

Second point, I tried to asked when has anyone ever played scum like that, you didn't provide any examples, I don't know what to say. Elaborate plans to hurt town are definitely above my paygrade as a scumplayer, I just try to live to the next day whilst not being obviously tied to my partners.

[Twistedarcher]

(/tag)

[Eevee]

I got to go, probably for tonight. Looking forward to padding my post count again tomorrow. 

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Eevee

[LaLight]

Vote: Eevee

[Witherweaver]

I feel like we're baking up a lot of the wrong trees. If Robz and Eevee are scum we're best off lynching one of them D1.

I don't understand what you're saying here.  What trees are the wrong trees?

[J Reggie]

I feel like we're baking up a lot of the wrong trees. If Robz and Eevee are scum we're best off lynching one of them D1.

I don't understand what you're saying here.  What trees are the wrong trees?

You and mcmcsalot. We're talking too much about your opening post. Like yeah it got things going but now we're standing because we're trying to read too much into it.

[mcmcsalot]

@calamatis I believe you are confused, that scum narrative eevee said he doesn't believe is the scum narrative for ww acting anti town, not for eevee. And to clarify again I don't think ww is scum, but I don't like eevee downplaying the possibility that ww is.

Do you genuinely think scum!WW is more likely to open a game like that than town!WW? If not, his statement isn't scum indicative at all. And I think that was the mainpart eevee's comment has been about:
Not that the overall probability of him being scum is particularly low but rather that this specific piece of information isn't actual evidence for him being scum.

PPE:3

I have said before, I actually agree with the people, including eevee, who think this narrative is more likely a bad play from town!ww and not a ploy by scum!ww. The point I was trying to make goes back to what eevee said:

This is one of those "Sure, but it's more something scum would shy away from doing" situations.

I really think innocent joke is a much more likely scenario than a scum plot that was suddenly abandoned for no reason at all.

These posts to me came off as super downplaying even the possibility that witherweaver is scum. Now while I agree with the overall conclusion I am worried scum!eevee is trying to downplay the possibility of ww being scum so that he can get the people who disagree lynched.

[mcmcsalot]

I feel like we're baking up a lot of the wrong trees. If Robz and Eevee are scum we're best off lynching one of them D1.

I don't understand what you're saying here.  What trees are the wrong trees?

You and mcmcsalot. We're talking too much about your opening post. Like yeah it got things going but now we're standing because we're trying to read too much into it.

So this looks like a really really bad scum partner attempt at stealing things away from the current conversation.

We have long since passed discussing the actual post ww made. Me and eevee find each other scummy and what you to vote for the other person (I think he's voting me). Care to weigh in on that?

[SpaceAnemone]

I have a plan. Each person should claim a PR that they're not. Each claim should be different from the last. This limits scum but not town.

What does the 12th person claim, in a game with 11 possible different town PRs? And what if town's PRs are late claiming, and only their actual role remains? Or what if town PRs realise that's a problem, and claim early in the line, indicating to scum which people are more likely to be PRs? Scum also knows that people claiming last with confidence are probably VTs.

So yeah, I don't like this plan... Is it another one of those things that's actually a joke? Or just an ill-thought-out attempt at diverting from the mcmc-Eevee conflict?

[J Reggie]

I have a plan. Each person should claim a PR that they're not. Each claim should be different from the last. This limits scum but not town.

What does the 12th person claim, in a game with 11 possible different town PRs? And what if town's PRs are late claiming, and only their actual role remains? Or what if town PRs realise that's a problem, and claim early in the line, indicating to scum which people are more likely to be PRs? Scum also knows that people claiming last with confidence are probably VTs.

So yeah, I don't like this plan... Is it another one of those things that's actually a joke? Or just an ill-thought-out attempt at diverting from the mcmc-Eevee conflict?

Not different from all the others, just the last one. This is just so people don't say "I'm not the tracker" until the tracker claims.

[J Reggie]

I feel like we're baking up a lot of the wrong trees. If Robz and Eevee are scum we're best off lynching one of them D1.

I don't understand what you're saying here.  What trees are the wrong trees?

You and mcmcsalot. We're talking too much about your opening post. Like yeah it got things going but now we're standing because we're trying to read too much into it.

So this looks like a really really bad scum partner attempt at stealing things away from the current conversation.

We have long since passed discussing the actual post ww made. Me and eevee find each other scummy and what you to vote for the other person (I think he's voting me). Care to weigh in on that?

I think Eevee is scummier than you. But I still like my vote on Robz.

[Robz888]

I feel like we're baking up a lot of the wrong trees. If Robz and Eevee are scum we're best off lynching one of them D1.

I don't understand what you're saying here.  What trees are the wrong trees?

You and mcmcsalot. We're talking too much about your opening post. Like yeah it got things going but now we're standing because we're trying to read too much into it.

So this looks like a really really bad scum partner attempt at stealing things away from the current conversation.

We have long since passed discussing the actual post ww made. Me and eevee find each other scummy and what you to vote for the other person (I think he's voting me). Care to weigh in on that?

Yeah, I really don't understand how JReggie could think "we're barking up the wrong trees" and that barking up the right trees would involve lynching me and (not even or, but AND) Eevee. Eevee is the character must under heat at the moment, anyway! So we are barking up your preferred tree anyway.

So I dispute both the premise and the question. WW's weird joke thing was worth scrutinizing, and now Eevee is worth scrutinizing for how his reaction to it when down.

And mcmc is really winning this argument, Eevee looks like he's flailing badly to me. But I don't know if that makes him scum, or just town who kind of said the wrong things. I feel like Eevee is a cooler-headed scum. So I'm not sure.

I do think the crusade mcmc is on really absolutely comes from a place of town!mcmc.

[Robz888]

The claim plan is terrible, let's not do the plan.

[Robz888]

Actually, Vote: JReggie. If this is OMGUS, so be it.

[gkrieg13]

Actually, Vote: JReggie. If this is OMGUS, so be it.

If you are voting J Reggie for proposing the claiming plan, then this seems like a silly vote.  The claiming plan isn't very good, but it certainly isn't scummy

[Robz888]

Actually, Vote: JReggie. If this is OMGUS, so be it.

If you are voting J Reggie for proposing the claiming plan, then this seems like a silly vote.  The claiming plan isn't very good, but it certainly isn't scummy

I'm voting for him for the "barking up the wrong trees" comment. I agree with you about the plan not being scummy on its own in any sense, but taken with the "trees" comment it looks like J Reggie is sort of consciously trying to distract us from the more important conversations we were having.

[gkrieg13]

Actually, Vote: JReggie. If this is OMGUS, so be it.

If you are voting J Reggie for proposing the claiming plan, then this seems like a silly vote.  The claiming plan isn't very good, but it certainly isn't scummy

I'm voting for him for the "barking up the wrong trees" comment. I agree with you about the plan not being scummy on its own in any sense, but taken with the "trees" comment it looks like J Reggie is sort of consciously trying to distract us from the more important conversations we were having.

I don't feel like that is something that scum!J Reggie does.  I actually see him doing that much more as town.

[Robz888]

Actually, Vote: JReggie. If this is OMGUS, so be it.

If you are voting J Reggie for proposing the claiming plan, then this seems like a silly vote.  The claiming plan isn't very good, but it certainly isn't scummy

I'm voting for him for the "barking up the wrong trees" comment. I agree with you about the plan not being scummy on its own in any sense, but taken with the "trees" comment it looks like J Reggie is sort of consciously trying to distract us from the more important conversations we were having.

I don't feel like that is something that scum!J Reggie does.  I actually see him doing that much more as town.

I've only played with him once, he was scum, and I feel like he did do that.

[pacovf]

I think mcmc's case on Eevee is flimsy at best, and I don't see where Eevee is flailing.

I need to take the time to reread this, too many people seem to be flying under the radar in my opinion.

[Robz888]

I think mcmc's case on Eevee is flimsy at best, and I don't see where Eevee is flailing.

I need to take the time to reread this, too many people seem to be flying under the radar in my opinion.

I do agree that some people are flying under the radar, though it is still quite early. This is something to watch out for, though, since all things being equal, less active people are often more likely to be scum. This isn't true in every case--I don't think it's true for me, for instance--but I do think it's probably true in the aggregate (or at least was back in my day).

[silverspawn]

I feel like the Eevee <-> Mc interaction is like ... Eevee does something pretty normal, mc points it out, Eevee explains his behavior, mc goes back and hammers onto it even though there is nothing, Eevee calmly responds to all points, leaving absolutely no ambiguity, mc goes on to create ambiguity by misinterpreting...

so, idk if this is scummy, but the case has approximately zero substance. I'm leaning scummy, because it allows scum to move pretty much outside the bounds of reality.

I'd like everyone who is voting for Eevee right now to explain why (excluding mcmc).

[gkrieg13]

I feel like the Eevee <-> Mc interaction is like ... Eevee does something pretty normal, mc points it out, Eevee explains his behavior, mc goes back and hammers onto it even though there is nothing, Eevee calmly responds to all points, leaving absolutely no ambiguity, mc goes on to create ambiguity by misinterpreting...

so, idk if this is scummy, but the case has approximately zero substance. I'm leaning scummy, because it allows scum to move pretty much outside the bounds of reality.

I'd like everyone who is voting for Eevee right now to explain why (excluding mcmc).

Well for me it is mainly gut.

[schadd]

Vote Count 1.2
mcmcsalot (5): SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle, silverspawn, pacovf
Eevee (4): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, LaLight, Witherweaver
Robz888 (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (1): Calamitas

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 1.2
mcmcsalot (5): SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle, silverspawn, pacovf
Eevee (4): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, LaLight, Witherweaver
Robz888 (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (1): Calamitas

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

The mcmcsalot wagon is really misguided, I'm getting major town read on mcmc. Maybe it takes knowing and having played with him to think that.

The Eevee wagon is less crazy, but I'm still not totally crazy about it.

In a way, we are just punishing two of the most active people here, and that's not good.

[teamlyle]

The mcmcsalot wagon is really misguided, I'm getting major town read on mcmc. Maybe it takes knowing and having played with him to think that.

Maybe you could explain? It might be hard since you're his brother and you can read him better than any of us, but maybe you could enlighten us a bit. Since it's still a possibility that you might both be scum.

[J Reggie]

Actually I think the Robz wagon is stupid. If he is scum I haven't caught him for the right reasons. unvote.

And vote: pacovf because he's flying under the radar.

[Robz888]

The mcmcsalot wagon is really misguided, I'm getting major town read on mcmc. Maybe it takes knowing and having played with him to think that.

Maybe you could explain? It might be hard since you're his brother and you can read him better than any of us, but maybe you could enlighten us a bit. Since it's still a possibility that you might both be scum.

He's trying really hard, basically. He's legitimately trying to scumhunt. Maybe you don't think he's doing a good job. But this is a limb I just don't think he would put himself on so early as scum.

[pacovf]

If he is scum I haven't caught him for the right reasons.

what

And vote: pacovf because he's flying under the radar.

haha :p

[LaLight]

I disagree about both your underlined points!

Unhelpful post is unhelpful...it does pad your post count though

Well, I disagree that WW's post didn't make it completely clear that he was kidding, it certainly did to me, and at least some others. I don't want this to become a trolling war, but are you maybe saying that teamlyle, ss and LL are all scum too for thinking it was obvious? I just really don't see a point in arguing over whether that was obvious to someone, as only they can know. You know, if you are town and really didn't get that he was kidding from that and think it's unreasonable for others to have, you probably aren't changing your mind. If you are scum and it's all a fabrication, you definitely aren't.

Second point, I tried to asked when has anyone ever played scum like that, you didn't provide any examples, I don't know what to say. Elaborate plans to hurt town are definitely above my paygrade as a scumplayer, I just try to live to the next day whilst not being obviously tied to my partners.

I voted for Eevee for this comment, which is typical!scum for everyone who would say that. The obvious argument: if you know how you behave as scum, what will stop you from doing the antipodal things?

Also, Eevee really looks flailing, some comments are over explainive and over defencive.

[Witherweaver]

Actually I think the Robz wagon is stupid. If he is scum I haven't caught him for the right reasons. unvote.

And vote: pacovf because he's flying under the radar.

Vote: J Reggie

[gkrieg13]

Actually, Vote: JReggie. If this is OMGUS, so be it.

This also makes me read Robz as town for now. He just sounds kind of frustrated actually. And the tone is different from his last few scum games.

[mcmcsalot]

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

[mcmcsalot]

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

With such old votes on it. Again not crazy concerning but I would love for them to explain their votes or change them.

[SpaceAnemone]

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

Yes, it was complete RVS to start with on my part, but then I didn't feel any need to move it. I am keeping an eye on how things are going on a pretty regular basis, even if I don't have time to do much more than passing comments while I'm working. More in a few hours when I'm home again, probably with some re-reading of everything that's gone down so far.

[teamlyle]

At first I was suspicious of you because of the "woah woah woah this needs to be explained" quote. I was thinking about what Robz said about you and I feel like he should be right unless you both are scum, which seems like too many rings to jump through.

There's only real pressure on mcmc and Eevee right now, which makes me feel like scum is just sitting on the sidelines and mcmc and Eevee are both town. Maybe it's just me. But unvote

[mcmcsalot]

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

Yes, it was complete RVS to start with on my part, but then I didn't feel any need to move it. I am keeping an eye on how things are going on a pretty regular basis, even if I don't have time to do much more than passing comments while I'm working. More in a few hours when I'm home again, probably with some re-reading of everything that's gone down so far.

I know you said you will post more after a re-read but you also said you feel no need to move your vote on me and you have been keeping up on a pretty regular basis. Care to explain why you think I'm scum?

[Eevee]

J Reggie feels sort of.. erratic to me. Like, his posts aren't really referencing what's going on currently, and his ideas seem a little disconnected. Others who have more experience with him, do you agree, and what do you think of that? I feel it's almost as if he is going about the mid-day state in a RVS way. It's odd! But he certainly isn't trying to blend in, which I maintain is (generally) what scum tries do to.

[Robz888]

J Reggie feels sort of.. erratic to me. Like, his posts aren't really referencing what's going on currently, and his ideas seem a little disconnected. Others who have more experience with him, do you agree, and what do you think of that? I feel it's almost as if he is going about the mid-day state in a RVS way. It's odd! But he certainly isn't trying to blend in, which I maintain is (generally) what scum tries do to.

This seems right, and your point is taken about scum trying to blend in. But I don't know, it sort of feels like he is trying to blend in, but is doing a really bad job of it.

[SpaceAnemone]

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

Yes, it was complete RVS to start with on my part, but then I didn't feel any need to move it. I am keeping an eye on how things are going on a pretty regular basis, even if I don't have time to do much more than passing comments while I'm working. More in a few hours when I'm home again, probably with some re-reading of everything that's gone down so far.

I know you said you will post more after a re-read but you also said you feel no need to move your vote on me and you have been keeping up on a pretty regular basis. Care to explain why you think I'm scum?

Mainly the vocal disagreement with Eevee over the WW joke. Though re-reading things more at the moment, with later comments in mind, I'm less sure of Eevee. Still reading right now, though I need to get to bed pretty soon :-(

Unvote just for now.

[Eevee]

Feels we are not moving forward at all. What's going on?

[J Reggie]

Feels we are not moving forward at all. What's going on?

We need to start a new wagon.

I will sheep the next person who places a vote.

[Witherweaver]

Feels we are not moving forward at all. What's going on?

We need to start a new wagon.

I will sheep the next person who places a vote.

Vote: J Reggie

[J Reggie]

Feels we are not moving forward at all. What's going on?

We need to start a new wagon.

I will sheep the next person who places a vote.

Vote: J Reggie

vote: J Reggie

[Witherweaver]

Feels we are not moving forward at all. What's going on?

We need to start a new wagon.

I will sheep the next person who places a vote.

Vote: J Reggie

vote: J Reggie

<3

[silverspawn]

vote: J Reggie

[SpaceAnemone]

I feel like the Eevee <-> Mc interaction is like ... Eevee does something pretty normal, mc points it out, Eevee explains his behavior, mc goes back and hammers onto it even though there is nothing, Eevee calmly responds to all points, leaving absolutely no ambiguity, mc goes on to create ambiguity by misinterpreting...

so, idk if this is scummy, but the case has approximately zero substance. I'm leaning scummy, because it allows scum to move pretty much outside the bounds of reality.

I'd like everyone who is voting for Eevee right now to explain why (excluding mcmc).

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

I feel like Eevee could have been a bit flustered, and was definitely easy to read as a person who's steering the game by implying public opinion agrees with his statements... so I didn't feel he's as squeaky-clean as all that. OTOH, I've only played in one game with him before, and he was scum, so that's bound to colour my opinion a bit. I definitely only agree with your statement above if "approximately zero" is a definite positive number quite a lot different from actual zero.

[Eevee]

I feel like the Eevee <-> Mc interaction is like ... Eevee does something pretty normal, mc points it out, Eevee explains his behavior, mc goes back and hammers onto it even though there is nothing, Eevee calmly responds to all points, leaving absolutely no ambiguity, mc goes on to create ambiguity by misinterpreting...

so, idk if this is scummy, but the case has approximately zero substance. I'm leaning scummy, because it allows scum to move pretty much outside the bounds of reality.

I'd like everyone who is voting for Eevee right now to explain why (excluding mcmc).

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

I feel like Eevee could have been a bit flustered, and was definitely easy to read as a person who's steering the game by implying public opinion agrees with his statements... so I didn't feel he's as squeaky-clean as all that. OTOH, I've only played in one game with him before, and he was scum, so that's bound to colour my opinion a bit. I definitely only agree with your statement above if "approximately zero" is a definite positive number quite a lot different from actual zero.

There is also the factor that if me (and mcmc) are writing 5 times the word count you guys are, of course by sheer volume there are going to be more things to pick apart in our posts. Or another analogy, if I got accused of say cheating with my taxes, even if I answered all the questions and showed that no, there is no funny business with the taxes, the lingering suspicion of "hey, he had to explain so much, I mean I'm clean and I haven't had to, so.." I really do feel that suspicion begets suspicion, and it can snowball very easily.

[SpaceAnemone]

There is also the factor that if me (and mcmc) are writing 5 times the word count you guys are, of course by sheer volume there are going to be more things to pick apart in our posts. Or another analogy, if I got accused of say cheating with my taxes, even if I answered all the questions and showed that no, there is no funny business with the taxes, the lingering suspicion of "hey, he had to explain so much, I mean I'm clean and I haven't had to, so.." I really do feel that suspicion begets suspicion, and it can snowball very easily.

Sure, I understand that :-) What you're asking for is that when reading your stuff, the rest of us apply a normalization factor to compensate for the fact that anyone posting enough words is going to say something that someone else out there will find scummy. I did almost add to my previous post that I could easily believe the clash between you and mcmc to be town v town thing. But there are cases either way, so I'm not happy labeling either of you town just yet.

I've done some more reading now, and I'd like to go back and agree with Paco's point about pushing for the people who're less active to step up a bit.

Vote: Pacovf

[Eevee]

Is Calamitas VLA? He has like 5 posts after the restart.

[Eevee]

I feel like Eevee could have been a bit flustered, and was definitely easy to read as a person who's steering the game by implying public opinion agrees with his statements...

Just by the way, I really don't want to be that guy, so taking this note to heart. Thanks mcmc (and others) for pointing it out, it's not fun behavior at all.

[Calamitas]

Is Calamitas VLA? He has like 5 posts after the restart.

A combination of LA and not feeling like I have anything to say.

[Eevee]

Is Calamitas VLA? He has like 5 posts after the restart.

A combination of LA and not feeling like I have anything to say.

It would be nice if you said something. Any reads?

[gkrieg13]

Sorry for not being more active. Last final is today and then it should pick up a little for me.

[Calamitas]

Is Calamitas VLA? He has like 5 posts after the restart.

A combination of LA and not feeling like I have anything to say.

It would be nice if you said something. Any reads?

Not really, most stuff is just not alignment-indicative. And my knowledge about the players with potentially indicative comments is too little to allow a fair evaluation.

[silverspawn]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

[J Reggie]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

[Calamitas]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

[mcmcsalot]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

With six games under your belt that's sort of a scummy defense. Only 4 town games so I'll let it slide but we really need your reactions in early days so we can get a genuine narrative from you later.

[Calamitas]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

With six games under your belt that's sort of a scummy defense. Only 4 town games so I'll let it slide but we really need your reactions in early days so we can get a genuine narrative from you later.

It's not scummy at all, it might be anti-town but is not scummy in the slightest.

[Eevee]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

With six games under your belt that's sort of a scummy defense. Only 4 town games so I'll let it slide but we really need your reactions in early days so we can get a genuine narrative from you later.

Yeah, it's not only about catching scum yourself, it's also about helping others to read you (and each other). If you are really bad at it, that can actually be more informative for us!

[Eevee]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

With six games under your belt that's sort of a scummy defense. Only 4 town games so I'll let it slide but we really need your reactions in early days so we can get a genuine narrative from you later.

It's not scummy at all, it might be anti-town but is not scummy in the slightest.

Say you are so bad you just totally reveal yourself to be scum if you post more. In that scenario it's definitely scummy to hang back to avoid that.

[mcmcsalot]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

With six games under your belt that's sort of a scummy defense. Only 4 town games so I'll let it slide but we really need your reactions in early days so we can get a genuine narrative from you later.

It's not scummy at all, it might be anti-town but is not scummy in the slightest.

The act of not posting is anti-town. The defense of I dunno what to say after a bit of experience is in my opinion a slightly scummy defense. No where near boy worthy so calm down, but it's definitely slight scummy.

[mcmcsalot]

Also what eevee said.

[Eevee]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

[Calamitas]

Calamitas is one of those people who hates D1 if I recall correctly. So not much surprise there. Also, I want to vote WW but I always think he's scum, even when I know he's town.

So I'll go back to vote: pacovf.

I don't hate it, I'm just awful at it.

With six games under your belt that's sort of a scummy defense. Only 4 town games so I'll let it slide but we really need your reactions in early days so we can get a genuine narrative from you later.

It's not scummy at all, it might be anti-town but is not scummy in the slightest.

Say you are so bad you just totally reveal yourself to be scum if you post more. In that scenario it's definitely scummy to hang back to avoid that.

I'm not bad in the game of mafia (actually I would say I'm quite good) but awful at getting reads D1 with nothing out of the ordinary happening. And it's not scummy (in the sense of scum-indicative not in any stereotypical sense) since I have played like that as either scum or town.

[mcmcsalot]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

I was thinking this as well. Though I think this gives me a stronger town read on spaceanemone then a scum read on silver.

[mcmcsalot]

I need help, does calamitas normally respond strongly to suspicion as town? We typically consider overreacting scummy but I think it's not out of the ordinary I know I used to really badly and it got me mislynched a couple times in a row.

[Robz888]

I'm sort of town-reading Calamitas's relative indifference to the day. We were scum together in Mafia 88, and he was much more active there, even on Day 1. I actually think he might be a lot like me, contributes more easily as scum but kinda has slightly less interest as town.

[Eevee]

@Calamitas's latest, too many quotes:


I didn't mean to imply you are very bad, in fact I quite like your bayesian approach.

But the fact remains, even though day 1's often suck, there needs to be posting, or we'd just lynch someone at random (say the guy with the smallest post count..)

I too hate trying to draw conclusions from incomplete information, and having to appear more convinced than you actually are, but it's a part of the game. Sometimes, by sheer luck or good scumhunting, we actually do end up building a day 1 wagon on someone who later flips scum. The early interactions can be very illuminating in those cases, but they don't exist if you just don't post at all until there is something more substantial.

[Eevee]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

I was thinking this as well. Though I think this gives me a stronger town read on spaceanemone then a scum read on silver.

How so? I don't follow.

[Eevee]

I need help, does calamitas normally respond strongly to suspicion as town? We typically consider overreacting scummy but I think it's not out of the ordinary I know I used to really badly and it got me mislynched a couple times in a row.

My personal favorite town-mcmc reaction to suspicion was posting your phone number on the forums so someone could alert you if the wagon would grow, so you could convince us not to lynch you before it's too late. 

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas's latest, too many quotes:


I didn't mean to imply you are very bad, in fact I quite like your bayesian approach.

But the fact remains, even though day 1's often suck, there needs to be posting, or we'd just lynch someone at random (say the guy with the smallest post count..)

I too hate trying to draw conclusions from incomplete information, and having to appear more convinced than you actually are, but it's a part of the game. Sometimes, by sheer luck or good scumhunting, we actually do end up building a day 1 wagon on someone who later flips scum. The early interactions can be very illuminating in those cases, but they don't exist if you just don't post at all until there is something more substantial.

But I cannot contribute any reads if I don't have any. I analyze posts by asking myself the question "Is this post more likely to come from scum!X or from town!X". The answer to this question is usually "no, but the invert doesn't apply as well" or just "cannot tell, know to little about X to evaluate that". Therefore I usually contribute in regard to specific issues or things like setup analysis D1. I just don't have anything more to offer.

[Witherweaver]

@Calamitas's latest, too many quotes:


I didn't mean to imply you are very bad, in fact I quite like your bayesian approach.

But the fact remains, even though day 1's often suck, there needs to be posting, or we'd just lynch someone at random (say the guy with the smallest post count..)

I too hate trying to draw conclusions from incomplete information, and having to appear more convinced than you actually are, but it's a part of the game. Sometimes, by sheer luck or good scumhunting, we actually do end up building a day 1 wagon on someone who later flips scum. The early interactions can be very illuminating in those cases, but they don't exist if you just don't post at all until there is something more substantial.

But I cannot contribute any reads if I don't have any. I analyze posts by asking myself the question "Is this post more likely to come from scum!X or from town!X". The answer to this question is usually "no, but the invert doesn't apply as well" or just "cannot tell, know to little about X to evaluate that". Therefore I usually contribute in regard to specific issues or things like setup analysis D1. I just don't have anything more to offer.

You could always just recklessly vote people.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas's latest, too many quotes:


I didn't mean to imply you are very bad, in fact I quite like your bayesian approach.

But the fact remains, even though day 1's often suck, there needs to be posting, or we'd just lynch someone at random (say the guy with the smallest post count..)

I too hate trying to draw conclusions from incomplete information, and having to appear more convinced than you actually are, but it's a part of the game. Sometimes, by sheer luck or good scumhunting, we actually do end up building a day 1 wagon on someone who later flips scum. The early interactions can be very illuminating in those cases, but they don't exist if you just don't post at all until there is something more substantial.

But I cannot contribute any reads if I don't have any. I analyze posts by asking myself the question "Is this post more likely to come from scum!X or from town!X". The answer to this question is usually "no, but the invert doesn't apply as well" or just "cannot tell, know to little about X to evaluate that". Therefore I usually contribute in regard to specific issues or things like setup analysis D1. I just don't have anything more to offer.

You could always just recklessly vote people.

I could but I wouldn't consider that good play

[silverspawn]

but it is fun! vote: calamitas

see??

back to vote: J Reggie

[silverspawn]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

what?

[Eevee]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

what?

I would say you didn't get what you asked for - of the three people you addressed your question to, only LL answered you at all.

[J Reggie]

but it is fun! vote: calamitas

see??

back to vote: J Reggie

Do you actually think I'm scum?

[silverspawn]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

what?

I would say you didn't get what you asked for - of the three people you addressed your question to, only LL answered you at all.

Ah. Fair enough. I was admittedly lazy and didn't check who didn't answer, I just didn't dislike the answer(s) I got.

but it is fun! vote: calamitas

see??

back to vote: J Reggie

Do you actually think I'm scum?

No, but that's a silly question, because thinking you're scum implies > 50% odds which would be an ultra strong read for day 1. I think your self-vote after WW's move was scummy.

[silverspawn]

but you're right, vote: gkrieg

[silverspawn]

hm, no I changed my mind. Back to vote: J Reggie

[Calamitas]

Silver, why do you think that self-vote was scum-indicative? He has tried insane stuff as town before (fake scumslip in rmm35).

[gkrieg13]

Uh, I did give a reason.

[silverspawn]

true...

I was mostly putting myself in his situation. If I said "I'll sheep the next person who votes!" and then someone votes for me, if I am town, I don't think I'll sheep him. if I'm scum, on the other hand, I might feel pressured not to appear cowardly.

[silverspawn]

Uh, I did give a reason.

yeah, I know, gut. Which isn't too bad, hence why I only voted for you for 3 seconds.

[Calamitas]

true...

I was mostly putting myself in his situation. If I said "I'll sheep the next person who votes!" and then someone votes for me, if I am town, I don't think I'll sheep him. if I'm scum, on the other hand, I might feel pressured not to appear cowardly.

But generally saying "I will sheep the next person that votes" isn't that sensible and rather RVS like in the first place. Following through isn't indicative I would say.

[pacovf]

Sorry people, winter finally caught up to me and gave me a nasty cold. I am feeling better today, I will take some time to reread and see if I want to move my vote.

[mcmcsalot]

true...

I was mostly putting myself in his situation. If I said "I'll sheep the next person who votes!" and then someone votes for me, if I am town, I don't think I'll sheep him. if I'm scum, on the other hand, I might feel pressured not to appear cowardly.

But generally saying "I will sheep the next person that votes" isn't that sensible and rather RVS like in the first place. Following through isn't indicative I would say.

I like both these thoughts but I am more on silver side. I think cal has a point that the statement itself isn't that sensible, but I think that just adds the the scumminess of the situation. Why does town!jreggie post that in the first place. So that brings me back to the most reasonable explaination for jreggie's posts is what robz said, he's scum trying to blend in and just being bad at it.

[mcmcsalot]

Did you get what you wanted out of responses to this question in the end?

Depends. I'd say no – the reasons provided were okay, I was more hoping for really bad ones to find scum that way. But I got what I asked for.

Hmm.

gkrieg or WW didn't answer you at all, LL did, and Robz gave a bonus comment even though he wasn't voting for me.

I actually appreciated the question, because I was interested myself, but now I kind of feel this scummy from silver, like he wasn't actually interested in the answers.. because he knows all the alignments already?

I was thinking this as well. Though I think this gives me a stronger town read on spaceanemone then a scum read on silver.

How so? I don't follow.

I can easily believe town!silver just wasn't that invested in the question as he has explained and was kinda looking for a specific thing(a bad answer). But the fact that spaceanemone brought it up and questioned silver about it read very town to me.

Baisically I'm happier spaceanemone brought it up than I am suspicious of silvers answers.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.3

mcmcsalot (2): Eevee, pacovf
Eevee (3): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, LaLight
J Reggie (3): Robz888, Witherweaver, silverspawn
pacovf (2): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie

Not Voting (2): Calamitas, teamlyle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

[Witherweaver]

I think I prefer

Vote: Eevee

[Eevee]

I just reread WW, I don't think I found a single read on anyone, unless you count unexplained votes. Do you have anything other than me, Robz and J Reggie looking scummy (or any reasons for those reads)?

[Witherweaver]

I just reread WW, I don't think I found a single read on anyone, unless you count unexplained votes. Do you have anything other than me, Robz and J Reggie looking scummy (or any reasons for those reads)?

Your posts seem like a lot of words without a lot of stuff, and most things by way of reads are defending other people, or at least criticizing people's votes or suspicions of said former people, which is generally the easiest kind of thing to post.  I'm not sure you actually find anyone scummy, except apparently McMc, which I don't really see.

J Reggie was for his weird unvote. 

I don't actually remember what it was about Robz.. oh, something with his posts regarding Claimgate feeling forced.

J Reggie I actually think is townier for his "I'll sheep anyone" thing.. McMc looks town. (I don't think I've ever seen scum McMc.)

[Eevee]

@Calamitas's latest, too many quotes:


I didn't mean to imply you are very bad, in fact I quite like your bayesian approach.

But the fact remains, even though day 1's often suck, there needs to be posting, or we'd just lynch someone at random (say the guy with the smallest post count..)

I too hate trying to draw conclusions from incomplete information, and having to appear more convinced than you actually are, but it's a part of the game. Sometimes, by sheer luck or good scumhunting, we actually do end up building a day 1 wagon on someone who later flips scum. The early interactions can be very illuminating in those cases, but they don't exist if you just don't post at all until there is something more substantial.

But I cannot contribute any reads if I don't have any. I analyze posts by asking myself the question "Is this post more likely to come from scum!X or from town!X". The answer to this question is usually "no, but the invert doesn't apply as well" or just "cannot tell, know to little about X to evaluate that". Therefore I usually contribute in regard to specific issues or things like setup analysis D1. I just don't have anything more to offer.

The "criticize other players voteing reasons" is my solution to this problem - it's day 1 and it's near impossible to actually catch anyone, I don't want to fake conviction I don't have, but pointing out when others assign alignment-relevancy to things I don't see having it is the one thing I think I can actually form strong opinions about day 1.

[pacovf]

Let's see what comes out of a (10 page already) reread. The next part are mostly rambling notes, they are more for me than for other people, but you might find it interesting.

J Reggie comes out claiming non-tracker, silver (and I) votes for him because of it.

Eevee mentions that it's better not to make setup discussion (because town can PR-slip). Robz calls him out on it. Then mcmc votes for him

gkrieg mentions this is the first 9++ setup in which he isn't mafia, but apparently it's not true. (J Reggie calls him out, votes for him later)

ww "claims" PGO. Eevee and Robz believe him. Then ww says he was joking. Robz votes for him out of that (annoyed).

...J Reggie votes for Robz out of nowhere "because you're scum with Eevee." (no idea what to think of this)

mcmc: "Scum shaming just about everyone not voting witherweaver at this point." (he is not voting for ww). Eevee says that it's something that is unlikely to come from scum. Robz and mcmc still against ww, Calamitas points out (after Eevee had already done it) about the pre-game post to show that it was a joke. Teamlyle say it's clearly a joke, I push him about the problem with ww's actions and counterclaims. "that's fair enough I think"

Lalight: clearly a joke, but Robz is pushy, votes for Robz. Eevee sort of agrees. ww votes for Robz. Eevee thinks this isn't scum!Robz, but votes for mcmc. Teamlyle sheeps.

Eevee buddy-buddies, which makes JReggie slightly suspicious. Teamlyle adds another layer of suspicion "but I am not going to change my vote". I mention that ww has refused to clarify his claim, Teamlyle agrees it's bad.

gkrieg votes eevee, no explanation

silver defends eevee buddy-buddying and ww not clarifying

Robz sort of loses it over ww's reactions.

SA defends ww actions, but asks silver what would be scum indicative actions from ww (I think this is towny). silver declines to answer. Robz asks why. gkrieg sort of mysteriously says that ww is only difficult to detect D1

mcmc goes hard against ww, says he is wary of people defending him right out of the gate. when he sees ww clarifying he is not PGO, he votes for Eevee. Rails against silver a bit, then SA explains it away.

eevee thinks mcmc's behaviour is explained by him not reading the thread very closely. gkrieg asks, what does that mean. Probably town, he answers, but can't read mcmc very well.

mcmc makes a case against eevee (personally the only thing I see is eevee potentially trying to use the ww thing to lynch people voting for ww). eevee defends himself, silver votes mcmc over case, calamitas sides with eevee. mcmc says he was only trying to get ww to clarify, wasn't suspicious of him (is that really what happened...?)

J Reggie: "barking up a lot of the wrong trees" (ww and mcmc), wants to lynch Eevee or Robz, makes claim plan

Eevee keeps defending himself, ww and lalight (he's in this game?) vote for him. J Reggie thinks scumminess: Robz > Eevee > mcmc

Robz: mcmc is "winning" the argument, eevee is flailing. mcmc clearly town, eevee maybe scum? then votes J Reggie. // Lots of people saying J Reggie is trying to detract from the current conversation. Gkrieg disagrees scum!JR does that.

silver says eevee is being normal, mcmc is creating things where there is nothing. gkrieg says he is voting eevee because "gut". Lalight gives a uh confusing explanation

all of the sudden JReggie says he "hasn't caught [Robz] for the right reasons". ww votes him.

mcmc concerned about his wagon, asks people why they are voting for him (slightly scummy). Pushes SA, who unvotes

Teamlyle says pressure only on mcmc and eevee, probably both town while scum waits on the sidelines, unvotes (...towny?)

game slows down, eevee asks what's up, JReggie says he will sheep next vote, ww votes for him, so JReggie follows through. silver votes JReggie over self-vote (scummy)

Calamitas does not want to say anything, says he doesn't have enough info (dunno what to think of this). mcmc and eevee call him out on that. Calamitas completely unfazed by the pressure. Robz thinks it's towny.

eevee calls out silver for not trying to get an answer to his question about why people were voting for eevee. silver says he is lazy. votes for gkrieg, then goes back to JR. Calamitas says JR voting for himself is not scummy, it's JR-ish. mcmc disagrees, says JR is just bad at blending in

ww goes back to voting eevee. explains vote when asked. eevee explains himself.




Ok posting this already because computer crashed twice while writing this. Reads coming up.

[pacovf]

Huh that was a wall of text, sorry.

[pacovf]

So:

Lalight: slightly scummy. Not a lot of content, votes for Robz and eevee in a way that seems too easy compared to what I remember of him.
Calamitas: slight town, unless he keeps doing his thing D2
gkrieg: null. A couple of nice posts, weighted down by a few empty posts that seem to be there to pad up the post count.
witherweaver: meh. Will see.
Robz: I think I lean town, but his frustration could easily be faked. I am mildly suspicious of his defense of mcmc.
SpaceAnemone: after that newbie mafia game, I am instantly suspicious of them forever. Their posts lack substance here, which was what gave them away in that game in the end. So slight scum.
silverspawn: I dislike that his only "strong" read is JReggie self-voting. Slight scum
J Reggie: does seem disjointed. No idea.
teamlyle: very wishy washy. Sending suspicion without committing. scummy.
eevee: under more suspicion than warranted, imho. Makes it hard to tell, because any real content is lost in the scuffle with mcmc. Null.
mcmc: the weird, weird way he handled ww's "claim" is scummy. Never actually voted for ww, and even though he originally had a problem with ww, he redirects his suspicion to other people. Weird, weird. Leaning scum.

I doubt mcmc and Robz are both scum, I don't think they would tie themselves together that much if they were, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was scum. The bro-claim complicates things, of course.

Other than that pair, Lalight, teamlyle and SA feel scummy, with silver being next in line. Still out on gkrieg, J Reggie and witherweaver. Which apparently means I am only townreading Eevee, Calamitas, and whoever in Robz/mcmc is not scum. Huh.

Anyway, vote: Teamlyle, most likely scum.

[Robz888]

Good effort, pac. I can sheep the Teamlyl vote. He's not giving us much. Vote: teamlyl

[teamlyle]

How am I supposed to read people well? Just curious.

Anyway pacovf's vote seems genuine since he actually typed out all that, but it's possible that Robz is trying to get me to get frustrated. And he probably wants me to comment on the typo "teamlyl" which happened twice, so that I look even scummier and less on track.

Vote: Robz

[teamlyle]

Also, half of Robz's posts are about WW's "joke."

[Robz888]

Also, half of Robz's posts are about WW's "joke."

Well, it was a thing worth talking about. You don't have very many posts and most of them say little.

[silverspawn]

Ok posting this already because computer crashed twice while writing this. Reads coming up.

that worries me . . .

[pacovf]

What exactly worries you? The state of my computer? Yeah, not entirely sure what's wrong with it. It runs perfectly fine 99% of the time, can run new games no problem... and then crashes when I've got 5 tabs on chrome open. It reboots in less than 30 seconds, so it's not the end of the world, but still.

[pacovf]

Teamlyle's reaction is making me feel better about my vote though.

[teamlyle]

Oh, sure. That's what mail-mi said in Battlestar Galactica mafia and he was scum.

Okay, yolo time.

I am Elizabeth Bennett, from Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice. I am a restless spirit.

I have no reason to lie about this, in fact it would make you guys more likely to lynch me since I can still vote when I'm dead. It would benefit town to show me how to actually read people, so I can make educated votes after I'm dead.

[pacovf]

Wow, talk about sensitivity to pressure! For the record, you had only two votes on you, generally you want to wait a bit more before claiming. In fact, I am not even sure if restless spirit is something you claim at all.

I need to think about this.

[gkrieg13]

Interesting claim. There isn't a reason to lie but also not a reason to claim.

[LaLight]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

[LaLight]

lynching Teamlyle we won't lose in any way at all. He may still be scum.

[gkrieg13]

lynching Teamlyle we won't lose in any way at all. He may still be scum.

But I think it is still better to leave him alive than lynch him for no reason. He is an IC that can't speak.

[Calamitas]

@mod: May a restless spirit post multiple votes within one post?

Like:
"Vote: X
 Vote: Y
"

[silverspawn]

What exactly worries you? The state of my computer? Yeah, not entirely sure what's wrong with it. It runs perfectly fine 99% of the time, can run new games no problem... and then crashes when I've got 5 tabs on chrome open. It reboots in less than 30 seconds, so it's not the end of the world, but still.

Hmm. I heard that chrome runs each tab in its own thread, unlike other browsers. Maybe switching to firefox or waterfox or opera would solve the problem

[faust]

@mod: May a restless spirit post multiple votes within one post?

No.

[SpaceAnemone]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

Do we know how teamlyle's death would affect the number of votes needed for a lynch? The usual text is "with X alive, it takes Y to lynch", and faust hasn't deviated from that in the voting counts so far in this game.

[silverspawn]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

Do we know how teamlyle's death would affect the number of votes needed for a lynch? The usual text is "with X alive, it takes Y to lynch", and faust hasn't deviated from that in the voting counts so far in this game.

Pretty sure the number of votes is determined as if he is a normal dead player.

tentatively in favor of vote: teamlyle

[Eevee]

If I'm reading the setup correctly, there can be 0-2 restless spirits, so it's not a counterclaimable role. The downside of lynching teamlyle and being wrong would be smaller, but it's also opportunity cost unless we really think he is most likely to be scum. I think I have a tendency of giving unforced claims a little too much town credit, but this doesn't seem like something scum would want to claim - wouldn't they be very worried about being lynched "just in case?"

I like Vote: silverspawn better, creeping suspicion from earlier, and I think he fits the bill for someone trying to control the game "from the shadows" without putting themselves at risk.

[SpaceAnemone]

Pretty sure the number of votes is determined as if he is a normal dead player.

tentatively in favor of vote: teamlyle

Vote: silver

[silverspawn]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

[Witherweaver]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

[SpaceAnemone]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

[LaLight]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

It's flawless. Either we lynch scum or anyway do not lose the vote.

PPE: 1

[LaLight]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

Teamlyle still might be actual scum.

[gkrieg13]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

Teamlyle still might be actual scum.

He acts like this as town though. And I think he has been mislynched in every game he has been in

[Witherweaver]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

It's flawless. Either we lynch scum or anyway do not lose the vote.

PPE: 1

So how likely do you think it is that he's scum?

[LaLight]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

It's flawless. Either we lynch scum or anyway do not lose the vote.

PPE: 1

So how likely do you think it is that he's scum?

More likely than 0 and that's enough for me.

[gkrieg13]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

It's flawless. Either we lynch scum or anyway do not lose the vote.

PPE: 1

So how likely do you think it is that he's scum?

More likely than 0 and that's enough for me.

All people are more likely than 0

[LaLight]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

It's flawless. Either we lynch scum or anyway do not lose the vote.

PPE: 1

So how likely do you think it is that he's scum?

More likely than 0 and that's enough for me.

All people are more likely than 0

But we can't lose all and can lose Teamlyle, don't you see?

[Witherweaver]

I think the more important question is, would you claim that as scum?  Especially early, and unprovoked?

[gkrieg13]

Why do we want to lynch teamlyle?

But we can't lose all and can lose Teamlyle, don't you see?

Just having an extra vote is not nearly as useful as having an extra player.

[gkrieg13]

Also I hate the new quote pyramid rules

[Witherweaver]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

This is misleading.  Killing a Restless Spirit isn't creating an IC more than killing any town is creating an IC.  The point of an IC is to reduce the lynch pool of active players so that you can better find scum.  This reduces the lynch pool in the same way that any death reduces the lynch pool: their alignment flips. 

It's really an extra vote, but we have to lose a player to get that vote. 

[LaLight]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

This is misleading.  Killing a Restless Spirit isn't creating an IC more than killing any town is creating an IC.  The point of an IC is to reduce the lynch pool of active players so that you can better find scum.  This reduces the lynch pool in the same way that any death reduces the lynch pool: their alignment flips. 

It's really an extra vote, but we have to lose a player to get that vote.

His mislynch will hurt us less than anyone else's. He still may be scum.

[Witherweaver]

A position you seem to keep trying to remind yourself..

[LaLight]

A position you seem to keep trying to remind yourself..

No, it's just no one listening to.

[Witherweaver]

I think the more important question is, would you claim that as scum?  Especially early, and unprovoked?

[silverspawn]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

hmmmm

that is putting it negatively. I don't think this view is correct, or for that matter WW's.

Scum wins by town losing the majority, not by scum winning the majority. The latter takes one more dead townie than the former. Since restless spirit only helps scum with the latter, as long as there is just one restless spirit, it is pretty close to creating an immortal town IC – who is not able to chat with us, though (LaLight seems to ignore/not know this).

[silverspawn]

As an easy example just imagine there are 3 town and 1 scum left in the game. That is MyLo. But if there are 3 town 1 scum and 1 dead restless spirit in the game, town has an additional lynch, which would put them at 1 + 1 + restless spirit. So the restless spirit buys town another lynch if the current number of players is even, and doesn't if it is odd, exactly like a living townie does.

[silverspawn]

I think the damage done by lynching town!restless spirit is probably around 40% as high as of lynching town!anyone else. With those odds, the expected value of lynching teamlyle is probably higher than that of lynching anyone else.

[Calamitas]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

hmmmm

that is putting it negatively. I don't think this view is correct, or for that matter WW's.

Scum wins by town losing the majority, not by scum winning the majority. The latter takes one more dead townie than the former. Since restless spirit only helps scum with the latter, as long as there is just one restless spirit, it is pretty close to creating an immortal town IC – who is not able to chat with us, though (LaLight seems to ignore/not know this).

Well, we could set up some kind of morse-code to circumvent the bloded part.

[Robz888]

Yeah, so I completely agree with LaLight and silverspawn about lynching teamlyle. The thing is, okay, sure, we don't want to lynch him just because he's claimed Restless Spirit. But I was suspicious of him anyway, and his claim mitigates the downside of mislynching him, which is pretty key here.

It would be a bad if it totally shut down our scumhunting or short-circuited Day 1, but I think we've had at least a semi-okay Day 1 so far. Some other wagons, some other things.

But we do need some key questions answered about the Restless Spirit: Does his vote actually count? Is he part of the total player number still in the game? Oh, and something I just thought of, does he get to join the Speccy QT?

[Robz888]

Well, we could set up some kind of morse-code to circumvent the bloded part.

We could NOT do this, I'm pretty sure. Think it violates the rules against cryptography. Be careful, people. We don't want to repeat the end of Mafia 89.

[Witherweaver]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

hmmmm

that is putting it negatively. I don't think this view is correct, or for that matter WW's.

Scum wins by town losing the majority, not by scum winning the majority. The latter takes one more dead townie than the former. Since restless spirit only helps scum with the latter, as long as there is just one restless spirit, it is pretty close to creating an immortal town IC – who is not able to chat with us, though (LaLight seems to ignore/not know this).

Well, we could set up some kind of morse-code to circumvent the bloded part.

No, we couldn't.

[Witherweaver]

Basically, I'm saying that if you think teamlyle is more likely to be town than the average other player, then you shouldn't lynch him, even though the downside is mitigated.  Lynching is about providing information. 

[Calamitas]

hm, not in favor of that, I don't think.

But you are in favour of reducing the number of players required for a lynch without reducing the number of scums out there, thereby increasing scum's ability to mislynch? Because that's the worrying side-effect of lynching off teamlyle like that, instead of hunting for actual scum.

hmmmm

that is putting it negatively. I don't think this view is correct, or for that matter WW's.

Scum wins by town losing the majority, not by scum winning the majority. The latter takes one more dead townie than the former. Since restless spirit only helps scum with the latter, as long as there is just one restless spirit, it is pretty close to creating an immortal town IC – who is not able to chat with us, though (LaLight seems to ignore/not know this).

Well, we could set up some kind of morse-code to circumvent the bloded part.

No, we couldn't.

Why couldn't we?

[Witherweaver]

Why couldn't we?

[Calamitas]

Why couldn't we?

Voting doesn't violate the rules?!

[Calamitas]

For example we may ask him whether he agrees with a certain statement. To answer we tell him that he should vote:nolynch and unvote in sucession to agree and vote:poster unvote to disagree. Why should something like thay violate any given rules?

[Witherweaver]

Maybe just read this:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Restless_Spirit

[pacovf]

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?

[Witherweaver]

And the general Mafia rules for this forum.

[Calamitas]

Maybe just read this:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Restless_Spirit

The pm explicitly states that votes are made in the thread and I don't see any conflicts in regard to the general rules.

[Robz888]

Maybe just read this:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Restless_Spirit

The pm explicitly states that votes are made in the thread and I don't see any conflicts in regard to the general rules.

You might be right, but we should really get explicit approval from faust before we go about setting up such a system.

[Witherweaver]

What's the point in having a premise of preventing communication if you're allowed to circumvent it?  Why isn't this obvious?

[Witherweaver]

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary. 

[Robz888]

Teamlyle, can you explain why you decided to claim with so little pressure on you? I will say that it seems premature claims tend to come from town. That's at least been my recent experience.

I suppose teamlyle could have known that if he has savvy partners. Certainly the RS claim, which pradoxically may make people want to lynch you more, is sort of a good claim for WIFOM. I.e., "If I was scum, why would I claim something that makes you want to kill me more?"

Then again, it's a cool, rare role... I could see being excited to claim it, just because it's cool. That could be the source of teamlyle's over eagerness.

Yeah, I guess I'm talking myself into believing it.

Back to Vote: J Reggie

[Calamitas]

What's the point in having a premise of preventing communication if you're allowed to circumvent it?  Why isn't this obvious?

It limits communication (read lists, elaborate opinions etc are basically impossible to communicate). Simple things (scuminess, approval, disapproval, yes, no, etc) are absolutely possible.

[Calamitas]

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

[Robz888]

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

We have run previous games where such a code was considered to be illegal under the cryptography prohibition. We'll need faust's confirmation here either way.

[Calamitas]

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

We have run previous games where such a code was considered to be illegal under the cryptography prohibition. We'll need faust's confirmation here either way.

Well, that is insane but okay. It is just as much crypto as saying "If you approve say yes". Or "If you actually think they are scummy vote them".
But yeah, nothing against asking for faust's approval.

[Witherweaver]

Well, we could set up some kind of morse-code to circumvent the bloded part.

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

[Calamitas]

Well, we could set up some kind of morse-code to circumvent the bloded part.

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

Morse-code yes, might agree to that. The simpler structure I provided in #409 clearly doesn't though. Thought you were referencing this pattern when saying it might fall under the crypro rules.

[Robz888]

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

We have run previous games where such a code was considered to be illegal under the cryptography prohibition. We'll need faust's confirmation here either way.

Well, that is insane but okay. It is just as much crypto as saying "If you approve say yes". Or "If you actually think they are scummy vote them".
But yeah, nothing against asking for faust's approval.

I think what happened was one of the early games, Mafia 14 or some such, had a scum PR that turned people into chickens who could only say chicken, and so we set up some elaborate thing to make "chicken! chicken!" its own language so we could get around the restriction, and it was totally do-able but really annoying, so we decided never again with that.

[Calamitas]

And it seems to clearly fall under the cryptography umbrella, even if rudimentary.

Never ever is that crypto.

We have run previous games where such a code was considered to be illegal under the cryptography prohibition. We'll need faust's confirmation here either way.

Well, that is insane but okay. It is just as much crypto as saying "If you approve say yes". Or "If you actually think they are scummy vote them".
But yeah, nothing against asking for faust's approval.

I think what happened was one of the early games, Mafia 14 or some such, had a scum PR that turned people into chickens who could only say chicken, and so we set up some elaborate thing to make "chicken! chicken!" its own language so we could get around the restriction, and it was totally do-able but really annoying, so we decided never again with that.

Sounds actually fun

[gkrieg13]

This also happened in ?tree mafia?  I think with RR.  I remember us asking him questions and having him answer them with votes, but it was so cumbersome, that we didn't really do it.

Also it is hard to stay interested in a game when all you can do is vote.

Also, I'm not sure it is all that much better to have teamlyle as a restless spirit.  I mean he isn't exactly the most experienced player.  Having a vet as a restless spirit seems pretty awesome, having a newbie that can only vote seems a little less awesome.

[gkrieg13]

RMM 30

[Calamitas]

This also happened in ?tree mafia?  I think with RR.  I remember us asking him questions and having him answer them with votes, but it was so cumbersome, that we didn't really do it.

Also it is hard to stay interested in a game when all you can do is vote.

Also, I'm not sure it is all that much better to have teamlyle as a restless spirit.  I mean he isn't exactly the most experienced player.  Having a vet as a restless spirit seems pretty awesome, having a newbie that can only vote seems a little less awesome.

It isn't that awesome but certainly better than having someone totally dead. Either way, I'm pretty sure we are going to lynch him at some point anyways since the probability of scum killing him is really low.
vote: teamlyle

[gkrieg13]

vote: Calamitas

[Calamitas]

vote: Calamitas

why?

[Robz888]

Sounds actually fun

Scum won anyway. That was a rare game in that I was mislynched on Day 1 as a claimed Cop!

To give you a preview of why it was not as fun as you might imagine:

Chicken Vote: jotheonah
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote

Chicken Vote: Captain_Frisk
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote



Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Captain_Frisk
Chicken Vote: jotheonah
Chicken Vote: Cuzz
Chicken Vote: yuma
Chicken Vote: shraeye
Chicken Vote: Archetype
Chicken Vote: ashersky


Chicken Vote: Eevee
Chicken Vote: Grujah
Chicken Vote: Galzria

That actually meant something we could read at the time.

[Calamitas]

Sounds actually fun

Scum won anyway. That was a rare game in that I was mislynched on Day 1 as a claimed Cop!

To give you a preview of why it was not as fun as you might imagine:

Chicken Vote: jotheonah
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote

Chicken Vote: Captain_Frisk
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote



Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Captain_Frisk
Chicken Vote: jotheonah
Chicken Vote: Cuzz
Chicken Vote: yuma
Chicken Vote: shraeye
Chicken Vote: Archetype
Chicken Vote: ashersky


Chicken Vote: Eevee
Chicken Vote: Grujah
Chicken Vote: Galzria

That actually meant something we could read at the time.

Sounds even more awesome
Though it should be obvious that this one is orders of magnitudes less complicated since we have at most 2 players being limited like that. So actual question asking ("Do you agree that...") becomes possible.

[Witherweaver]

My point is even why try to get as close to breaking the rules while still being able to argue that you're technically not breaking them?  The point of this is not to game the rules.

I mean, heck, he's allowed to vote, so why can't he just go

Vote: No I don't really agree with that, but I do think that...

[faust]

Does his vote actually count?

Yes.

Is he part of the total player number still in the game?

No.

Oh, and something I just thought of, does he get to join the Speccy QT?

No.

[Calamitas]

My point is even why try to get as close to breaking the rules while still being able to argue that you're technically not breaking them?  The point of this is not to game the rules.

I mean, heck, he's allowed to vote, so why can't he just go

Vote: No I don't really agree with that, but I do think that...

Because that one is not a valid vote, those are clearly not allowed. And it is clearly not gaming, we are still limited by the restrictions faust set in place.

[Witherweaver]

Which you from the very beginning said you are trying to circumvent...

[teamlyle]

Teamlyle, can you explain why you decided to claim with so little pressure on you?

I know I only had 2 votes on me when I claimed, but since I don't have much to contribute I knew the votes would soon build up.

Also, as you can probably tell I'm not that great at reading people, so I wanted it to be known that it would benefit town to help me get a little better instead of just lynching me right away so I don't learn.

[Calamitas]

Which you from the very beginning said you are trying to circumvent...

Well, faust gave us specific restrictions and we are well allowed to work with everything beyond that. I don't see any problem with that.

[Witherweaver]

I'm just going to stop posting for a while.

[pacovf]

I mean, whether you want to or not, from the moment a restless spirit gets to vote directly on thread, there will be information from the timing. It seems more cumbersome to try to restrict that than to live with the small amount of info gleaned from it.

I think the recent exchange is strengthening my townread on Calamitas though.

[gkrieg13]

I mean, whether you want to or not, from the moment a restless spirit gets to vote directly on thread, there will be information from the timing. It seems more cumbersome to try to restrict that than to live with the small amount of info gleaned from it.

I think the recent exchange is strengthening my townread on Calamitas though.

How?  He is proposing to kill a town player, who has said that he isn't that great at reading people.  That means that his vote can also be negative utility even if he is an IC.  The main plus of having an IC is so that you can have them ask people questions and have a mindset that is confirmed town.  Just having someone who can vote and is confirmed town is horrible.

Also I'm voting for Calamitas for his last post right before my vote.  Saying that he is pretty sure that we are going to lynch him eventually because the probability of scum killing him being low.  That just comes from a scum mindset.

[Calamitas]

I mean, whether you want to or not, from the moment a restless spirit gets to vote directly on thread, there will be information from the timing. It seems more cumbersome to try to restrict that than to live with the small amount of info gleaned from it.

I think the recent exchange is strengthening my townread on Calamitas though.

How?  He is proposing to kill a town player, who has said that he isn't that great at reading people.  That means that his vote can also be negative utility even if he is an IC.  The main plus of having an IC is so that you can have them ask people questions and have a mindset that is confirmed town.  Just having someone who can vote and is confirmed town is horrible.

Also I'm voting for Calamitas for his last post right before my vote.  Saying that he is pretty sure that we are going to lynch him eventually because the probability of scum killing him being low.  That just comes from a scum mindset.

Why should it come from a scum mindset, it is basically a fact. Killing someone who claims a role that explains them surviving up until the end has always that kind of suspicion lingering around them. It would be quite the same if he would have claimed bomb for example. The only difference is that in this case killing town!teamlyle is just orders of magnitudes better than any other town lynch. And I don't think the probability of him being scum is small enough justify any other lynch. Teamlyle is just the optimal choice here.

[pacovf]

I think trying to exploit a PR is a towny thing to do. I disagree with lynching teamlyle, but he is not the only one that wants to do so, so unless you think all of Robz, silver and Calamitas (am I forgetting someone?) are scum, that's not enough argument.

Why do you think that post you are referring to comes from a scum mindset?

[pacovf]

Man, this thread is so active right now.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think trying to exploit a PR is a towny thing to do.

I think trying to puzzle out the rules and look for exploits is a Calamitas thing to do (and also a SpaceAnemone thing), but it's not actually that indicative of alignment. It's perfectly possible for town to have big disagreements on how to exploit game mechanics (look at me and e in Worms!), so if there's a scum player who sees a benefit for their faction in pushing one particular direction through their own internal analysis, there's probably a townie-looking argument to use to push for it in this sort of situation.

[J Reggie]

Let's not lynch teamlyle. I feel like those who are saying "it's not as bad of a mislynch because he'll still be able to vote" are scum. It's still a mislynch.

[J Reggie]

vote: calamitas

[silverspawn]

I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes.

The explicit win condition is "You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening."

The implicit win condition is controlling at least half of the vote, because then town can't fight back anymore. Restless Spirit prevents that by as much as a living town player.

[Calamitas]

I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes.

The explicit win condition is "You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening."

The implicit win condition is controlling at least half of the vote, because then town can't fight back anymore. Restless Spirit prevents that by as much as a living town player.

Not by as much. Consider a scenario with 2 scum and 1 town and 1 restless spirit. Scum will enter the day quickhammering, town only has a chance if the restless spirit gambles correctly, enters the day voting scum and town is the first to hammer. 2scum + 2town would be a totally different scenario.

[silverspawn]

2scum + 2town would be a totally different scenario.

Yes. That would be a 100% scum win.

You just made an argument for why the restless spirit is potentially better than a town player. I only said that, in cases where the vote is tied, adding a restless spirit gives town the majority, therefore the spirit is as valuable as a town player. This is still 100% true. You described a scenario where scum has the majority, in which town would need two more players to tip it in their favor, and described how just one restless spirit could be enough.

Which is a fair point that I hadn't seen. So the restless spirit is actually worth more than a town player for preserving the lynch majority. Another reason to lynch teamlyle.

[Robz888]

I will say that Calamitas has thought way harder about the implications of end-of-game Restless Spiriting than I have. I'm led to believe this is just who he is--Calamitas likes powers and setups and thinking about this kind of stuff, yes?

When we were scum together in M 88, he was the absolutely master of this stuff, so I've definitely seen it from him as scum. Maybe it's not alignment indicative?

[silverspawn]

I will say that Calamitas has thought way harder about the implications of end-of-game Restless Spiriting than I have. I'm led to believe this is just who he is--Calamitas likes powers and setups and thinking about this kind of stuff, yes?

yes.

Maybe it's not alignment indicative?

Probably not.

[teamlyle]

Another reason to lynch teamlyle.

I'll probably be negative utility to town after I die if I just keep getting lynched without being given a chance to learn. I'll still really have no idea what to do or who to side with once I'm dead. Now I'm going to ask again, how do I read people well?

[teamlyle]

Vote: silverspawn

[silverspawn]

you side with town because you are town. You win mafia if your faction wins, not if you survive.

[teamlyle]

Yeah, so I can help my faction by reading people, right?

Now I'm going to ask again, how do I read people well?

You're trying to speed up my lynch so I'll be negative utility to town once I do get lynched. Hence the reason I'm voting for you.

[Calamitas]

Why should you ever be negative utility to town? This just doesn't make sense.

[teamlyle]

If I vote against town players then I'm negative utility to town. Isn't that how it works?

If you think that I can't ever be negative utility to town, I guess you forgot that you were voting me... You're probably scum trying to defend me and then look good when I turn up town.

Scum team: WW/Calamitas/silver

[silverspawn]

how do I read people well?

If I vote against town players

Scum team: WW/Calamitas/silver

...

[Calamitas]

If I vote against town players then I'm negative utility to town. Isn't that how it works?

If you think that I can't ever be negative utility to town, I guess you forgot that you were voting me... You're probably scum trying to defend me and then look good when I turn up town.

Scum team: WW/Calamitas/silver

If you actually expect to be negative utility you just don't vote?!

[teamlyle]

Vote: silverspawn

[mcmcsalot]

Wow I thought I missed a lot but it turns out it was just 3 pages of people arguing if we could or could not create a code...

I do think the claim was done far to early and I think teamlyle has acted very scummy since then. His im bad a reading people and therefor lynching me is bad is a bad defense.

Does anyone know what teamlyle is at?

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 1.2
mcmcsalot (5): SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle, silverspawn, pacovf
Eevee (4): mcmcsalot, gkrieg13, LaLight, Witherweaver
Robz888 (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (1): Calamitas

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

Here's some mid-day wagon analysis. Pretty weak but I was inspired by teamlyles proposed scum team of ww/cal/silver. A reasonable scum team finding there places trying to not all pile onto one wagon plus my scum and town reads gives me a probably scum team of:

Eevee, I have already made my case for why I think he's scummy(still a d1 case)
Teamlyle, Mainly based of his reactions to pressure and claim
WW/jreggie/cal, my guess is one of these is the third based on wagon positions and I have slight scum reads on them as opposed to slight town or null on robz/gkreig/lala

[mcmcsalot]

Now to play devils advocate because a lot of people voted teamlyle but the posts weby so fast I want to put them side by side.

So paco gives analysis and finds teamlyle scummy.

Good effort, pac. I can sheep the Teamlyl vote. He's not giving us much. Vote: teamlyl

Robz sheep

After two votes teamlyle claims prompting Lala to vote

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

Voting based on sheeping suspicion and if teamlyle is town he's still helpful.

Three more quotes to come I feel like two posts will take up less space.

[mcmcsalot]

So next paco and robz both unvote, I assume based on the claim and need to reevaluate.

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?

Teamlyle, can you explain why you decided to claim with so little pressure on you? I will say that it seems premature claims tend to come from town. That's at least been my recent experience.

I suppose teamlyle could have known that if he has savvy partners. Certainly the RS claim, which pradoxically may make people want to lynch you more, is sort of a good claim for WIFOM. I.e., "If I was scum, why would I claim something that makes you want to kill me more?"

Then again, it's a cool, rare role... I could see being excited to claim it, just because it's cool. That could be the source of teamlyle's over eagerness.

Yeah, I guess I'm talking myself into believing it.

Back to Vote: J Reggie

Lastly we had Cals vote:

This also happened in ?tree mafia?  I think with RR.  I remember us asking him questions and having him answer them with votes, but it was so cumbersome, that we didn't really do it.

Also it is hard to stay interested in a game when all you can do is vote.

Also, I'm not sure it is all that much better to have teamlyle as a restless spirit.  I mean he isn't exactly the most experienced player.  Having a vet as a restless spirit seems pretty awesome, having a newbie that can only vote seems a little less awesome.

It isn't that awesome but certainly better than having someone totally dead. Either way, I'm pretty sure we are going to lynch him at some point anyways since the probability of scum killing him is really low.
vote: teamlyle

[mcmcsalot]

All in this wagon was much less serious than I thought on first read. Other than paco's original analysis, not much else was said content wise. Which would make sense why teamlyle hasn't defended himself well however I maintain that claim was terrible to make at that point of pressure. The thread then being whipped into a flurry and the rest of pacos analysis being completely ignored is all pretty scummy though hard to tell who I'm directing those feelings at.

Perhaps the early claim was intentional because teamlyle didn't think he had any better defense so just shoot for the fences as soon as you get votes?

[Eevee]

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?

This. I'm suspicious of the people pushing for teamlyle. (phone gunching)

[Eevee]

Never ever is that crypto.

We have run previous games where such a code was considered to be illegal under the cryptography prohibition. We'll need faust's confirmation here either way.

Well, that is insane but okay. It is just as much crypto as saying "If you approve say yes". Or "If you actually think they are scummy vote them".
But yeah, nothing against asking for faust's approval.

I think what happened was one of the early games, Mafia 14 or some such, had a scum PR that turned people into chickens who could only say chicken, and so we set up some elaborate thing to make "chicken! chicken!" its own language so we could get around the restriction, and it was totally do-able but really annoying, so we decided never again with that.

Sounds actually fun

It was terrible.

Chicken.

[Eevee]

I think scum is hiding behind teamlyle's claim, and they have their explanation ready for tomorrow. "I know he wasn't that scummy, but we just had to do that because of the claim". I don't think we should lynch him unless we think he is scum.

 Calamitas, if he is never the most likely person to be scum at the end of the day, why do we have to lynch him ever? I think we have better shots!

To the people explaining "it could be a scum ploy created in advance".. sure! Anything is possible, but I think we should go for the most likely thing. What in teamlyle's play makes you guys think he is scum? I think the claim is more likely to come from town, how many times have we seen a newer player drawing an exciting role and being too eager to claim it? I posit that as scum, teamlyle would want to make sure to live as long as possible (because it's another cool role), I don't think he'd want to push himself to the forefront like this. Especially with a claim that makes makes the potential downside of lynching you smaller - you more likely to get lynched!

I'm really not seeing this.

Silverspawn being mafia and wanting to push this lynch because there is a built in excuse fits too, I like where my vote is at (more than I usually would day 1!).

[Calamitas]

unvote for now.

Restless spirit or not, we should not lynch town. Like, duh. And right now I think teamlyle's claim is evidence in favour of him being town. Still need to think about it a bit more though.


I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?

This. I'm suspicious of the people pushing for teamlyle. (phone gunching)

But the probability of him being town is not high enough in comparison to the default probability (8/11) to justify not lynching him. As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

[Eevee]

Okay, that's a different discussion: Where is the threshold of scumminess teamlyle needs to achieve to be a better lynch?

The thing is, I think he is less likely to be a mafia lynch for us than even a random lynch. Add to that, we lynch him thinking "nah, he's probably town but make sure", and scum has a perfect alibi - we get much decreased wagon analysis benefit, and we are starting day 2 basically from the scratch, save for possible PR interactions and mafia's night kill. I don't think it's just about numbers, we also lynch to figure out the puzzle that is people's alignments.

I think the same arguments that apply to the discussion "is random lynch better day 1 because it hits scum more often than what we normally do" apply here. It's not just about the numbers, it's about increasing our likelihood of getting better lynches in the future.

[pacovf]

The thing is, I think he is less likely to be a mafia lynch for us than even a random lynch. Add to that, we lynch him thinking "nah, he's probably town but make sure", and scum has a perfect alibi - we get much decreased wagon analysis benefit, and we are starting day 2 basically from the scratch, save for possible PR interactions and mafia's night kill.

This makes a lot of sense. I am not lynching teamlyle today, unless something comes up that convinces me that he is likely to be scum, despite the claim.

[Calamitas]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

[gkrieg13]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

But lynching an IC is never a good idea.

[Eevee]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

Maybe I'm not thinking of all the scenarios clearly enough then, but I just don't agree. Couldn't we just lynch him later if it becomes better to remove him because of the numbers or whatever?

[Calamitas]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

But lynching an IC is never a good idea.

What?

[Calamitas]

Well, generally speaking, the lynch of a restless spirit is almost a free one in terms of costs in regard to the endgame. Therefore, in contrast to any other D1 misslynch, that one wouldn't bring scum any closer to their victory condition (actually quite the opposite).
Additionally, the lynch of teamlyle allows us to shrink our lynchpool in any case. Either we hit scum or we get the restless spirit, both those scenarios are beneficial for town.
We might not have as good reads as usual D2 but we are in no scenario as close to the scum victory condition as usually.

Maybe I'm not thinking of all the scenarios clearly enough then, but I just don't agree. Couldn't we just lynch him later if it becomes better to remove him because of the numbers or whatever?

Our shot at hitting mafia increases with every passing day faster than linear. Therefore, it is best to use the lynch on the known target as soon as possible since it allows us to use the lynches with a smaller lynchpool better.
And, all things considered, teamlyle is not even close to be an IC. So I'm pretty sure we want to lynch him at some point anyways (since the drawback of lynching town!teamlyle is really small) and doing that right know is just strictly better than doing it later.

[Eevee]

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

[Robz888]

I do see what Calamitas is saying, but I've really come around to thinking teamlyle's claim makes most sense as over-eager, inexperienced townie. Not 100%, not even close, and yes it's better to mislynch him than other people. And also I guess early claiming Restless Spirit as faux over-eager townie is a pretty great scum defense. Shoot, now I'm talking myself out of this a little bit. It's a tough call I guess, but I think I still want to look elsewhere.

What's the case on silverspawn, Eevee? He's scummily pushing teamlyle? Why?

[Calamitas]

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

But if we are going to lynch him at some point of the game anyways that doesn't matter I think. One lynch is going to be taken up by teamlyle and it's best if thar's the day with the least info to work with.

[Robz888]

And how about Vote: WitherWeaver for totally disappearing after Jokegate and contributing zero substance to this game. That's fair, yes?

[Robz888]

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

But if we are going to lynch him at some point of the game anyways that doesn't matter I think. One lynch is going to be taken up by teamlyle and it's best if thar's the day with the least info to work with.

You know, I always tell Vigs not to shoot, but if we do have a Vig (a major if, of course), shooting teamlyle seems like a not-terrible plan.

[Eevee]

I'll try to reread silver tomorrow and see what comes up. Right now it's basically just he fits the mold of a person not trying to draw attention to themselves  but still being present enough not to get the lurker suspicion (I guess he seems measured, or something?), and having a scummy position on this teamlyle wagon.

[Calamitas]

Let's consider two scenarios, one with a restless spirit, one without one:

Without restless spirit:

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit ==> MyLo

With restless spirit

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit  ==> LyLo

Obviously, the odds in the second scenario are vastly better than the odds in the first scenario. And, considering that the possibility of lynching scum instead of the spirit is definitely not negligible, lynching teamlyle is clearly the best option for us here.

[SpaceAnemone]

As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

[Calamitas]

In addition, a comparision between lynching the spirit immediately and along the way:


With restless spirit directly

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit  ==> LyLo

With restless spirit later

- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit   -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit  ==> LyLo

On the first glance, those two scenarios look quite similar. Though one has to look at the odds of correct lynches to see the decisive difference.

- D1: 3/12 = 25%
- D2: 3/10 = 30%
- D3: 3/08 = 37.5%

When lynching the restless spirit D1, town sacrifices a 25% chance of hitting scum that day. When lynching later, those chances (and thereby the sacrifice) increases massively.
Therefore an early lynch of the restless spirit is preferable to a later lynch of the restless spirit.

[schadd]

Vote Count 1.4


Eevee (2): mcmcsalot,  Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, silverspawn, LaLight
silverspawn (3): SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, Eevee
Calamitas (2): gkrieg13, J Reggie
Witherweaver (1): Robz888


Not voting (1): pacovf


With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

[Eevee]

As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

This is what I've been trying to say as well.

[Robz888]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

[Calamitas]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

You're better than this robz.

[Eevee]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

You're better than this robz.

Easily giving calamitas enough credit to be able to fake that as scum, but that's a towny comment about Robz.

[pacovf]

I haven't really checked the odds (even though I LOVE calculating odds) because I don't think they are relevant in this scenario. Lynching scum is better than lynching town, period. Failing that, getting information is the best we can do. Lynching town in a way that makes people unaccountable for their vote (because setup/numbers) does not do that.

So we should stop discussing the advantages of lynching a Restless Spirit, because it's detracting from actual scumhunting, and lynch someone else. From the people that currently have a vote on them, my preferred choice is vote: silverspawn, because he is playing the way I would expect him to play as scum: being present without committing himself too much, and voting for people for relatively easy reasons.

I could do Lalight or SA too, I think.

[Robz888]

This is exactly what Calamitas did (as town) on Day 1 in Mafia 89: over-reliance on numbers and math and probabilities to tell us what to do.

You're better than this robz.

Better than what?

[pacovf]

Also, for the record, I disagree that we will have to lynch teamlyle.

[silverspawn]

As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Yes, yes.

Because that aspect is overrated. Reads are expected to be weak and only required to be weak in order for town to win. Note that this chart is without PRs!

Whenever anyone proposes lynching someone for reasons other than thinking they're scum, someone always argues that this is scummy, that we should just lynch the scummiest person, and almost always a wagon forms on the people pushing this idea. It's about the least safe thing to do in this situation. It is much safer to be the one arguing that we should go by scumminess instead, those never get heat.

The problem that I do have with this lynch is that I found his recent comments to be pretty indicative of town. I'd now say he's the least likely scum candidate out of any of you.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

Yes. But not much.

[pacovf]

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

Yes. But not much.

Lynching scum D1 is huge! I don't see why you think that.

[silverspawn]

because lynching scum day 2 is also huge, just slightly less so. remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch. Sure the first's better but it's not a big difference.

[Robz888]

Lynching scum Day 1 is much huger than lynching scum Day 2. The statistic would bear this out.

[pacovf]

remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch.

...why are we only comparing those two? Why should scum lynch lead into town lynch? Surely the information from lynching scum D1 would lead to better odds of lynching scum D2?

[silverspawn]

Lynching scum Day 1 is much huger than lynching scum Day 2. The statistic would bear this out.

I don't believe that.

remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch.

...why are we only comparing those two? Why should scum lynch lead into town lynch? Surely the information from lynching scum D1 would lead to better odds of lynching scum D2?

okay, sure, day-1-scum-lynch into adjust probability, rather than assuming a town lynch would be more accurate.

[pacovf]

...and why would lynching teamlyle today lead to a scum lynch tomorrow?

I really fail to see where the logic in your argument is.

[pacovf]

Furthermore, I disagree with the notion that we WILL lynch teamlyle at some point. While this setup makes counterclaims hard to pull off, it's not impossible. We just need to lynch a couple of scum to have a good idea on how many letters were rolled this game, then a massclaim clears everything out. Heck, even just the presence of a Universal Backup would be strong evidence against teamlyle's claim, while absence would all but confirm his claim.

Lynching teamlyle today is senseless.

[pacovf]

Finally, the deadline is actually REALLY CLOSE, people! Like 1.5 days away!

We need to get a lynch through as soon as possible. I was fine with a silver lynch before he started pushing for teamlyle because of his "I am contributing" sort of posts that lacked scumhunting, occasional easy votes, and the last development on why we should lynch teamlyle hasn't really changed my position. Sorry if this is just a disagreement on theory talk, but unfortunately D1 is the way it is...

I could maaaybe go for witherweaver instead (has one vote on him), or could move to Lalight or SA because they are the only real people that stood out to me as potential scum today, but doesn't seem terribly likely. I would only vote for Eevee or Calamitas if it's between that or no-lynch.

[mcmcsalot]

remember we're comparing only the time of the scum lynch, so we're talking scum lynch -> town lynch vs town lynch -> scum lynch.

...why are we only comparing those two? Why should scum lynch lead into town lynch? Surely the information from lynching scum D1 would lead to better odds of lynching scum D2?

Yes this is why lynching scum d1 has been proven to be brutal to scum teams. D1 scum acts way stranger toward eachother than any other day. A day one scum lynch usually results in narrowing the remaining scum to a lynchable pool.

[LaLight]

Okay, I'm not really good in probability theories but I can't understand Silver here. Here's 4 scenarios of lynch:

Scum -> Scum
Scum -> Town
Town -> Scum
Town -> Town (let's not take a no-lynch into consideration)

If we lynch scum D1 we avoid the worst of it (4) and can achieve the best (1). Lynching townie we can't achieve the best and avoid the worst. Also, lynching scum D1 we have Reads and interactions for analyzing people D2, that's why lynching scum D1 is highly preferable to lynching Town (not talking about obv. reasons).

Vote: Pacovf. Slightly OMGUS, slightly me not liking his first post.

"I would only vote for Eevee or Calamitas if it's between that or no-lynch." (Sorry for no quotations)

It's D1! You look into your gut feelings mostly (esp. when there's 12 players) and you should be ready for lynching quite anyone (being town). You haven't explained why Eevee and Calamitas and also this sentence doesn't really make sense. What if they scumslip of anything? Scum's always sure about alignments of people, we can see it the vividest D1.

[silverspawn]

no... pacovf is probably my second strongest town read. Let's not lynch.

[silverspawn]

...and why would lynching teamlyle today lead to a scum lynch tomorrow?

I really fail to see where the logic in your argument is.

You're pulling things out of context. The question I was asked was specifically whether a scum lynch day 1 was much more valuable than a scum lynch day 2. And it's not, it's just mildly more valuable. Someone asked that, you can go back and read who it was.

[silverspawn]

I don't have scumreads, but if we don't do teamlyle then I'd be fine with Eevee – informative flip and no town read despite lots of content – or SA, very safe play there.

[silverspawn]

Or gkrieg, WW, or LaLight... WW might also be more infortmative. The other two have the downside of not really having had any suspicion.

[Calamitas]

Come on guys, eveeything besides lynching teamlyle is just outright lunatic. Lynching teamlyle gives us another day, period. We are guaranteed to make it until D4, just like in the case of a scum lynch. A towb lynch doesn't provide this. Our odds of winning increase dramatically. And do you really think a fee tiny bits in terms of the probability to lynch scum today can balance that out? If someone would have scumalipped I would agree with lynching them, but we don't have strong reads here. So let's just lynch teamlyle, take the extra day IN ANY SCENARIO (scum!teamlyle and town!teamlyle) and start lynching our top scumreads tomorrow where our odds have improved.

[Calamitas]

@SA Lynching teamlyle improves our odds at making it to the end (and winning it) massively in cobtrast to a town lynch.

[silverspawn]

Come on guys, eveeything besides lynching teamlyle is just outright lunatic. Lynching teamlyle gives us another day, period. We are guaranteed to make it until D4, just like in the case of a scum lynch. A towb lynch doesn't provide this. Our odds of winning increase dramatically. And do you really think a fee tiny bits in terms of the probability to lynch scum today can balance that out? If someone would have scumalipped I would agree with lynching them, but we don't have strong reads here. So let's just lynch teamlyle, take the extra day IN ANY SCENARIO (scum!teamlyle and town!teamlyle) and start lynching our top scumreads tomorrow where our odds have improved.

The problem is that lynching teamlyle might create a stubborn non-talkative IC that's stuck on voting for me. In that case the theoretical superiority of that plan doesn't really help. But I'm totally with you otherwise.

[Calamitas]

Come on guys, eveeything besides lynching teamlyle is just outright lunatic. Lynching teamlyle gives us another day, period. We are guaranteed to make it until D4, just like in the case of a scum lynch. A towb lynch doesn't provide this. Our odds of winning increase dramatically. And do you really think a fee tiny bits in terms of the probability to lynch scum today can balance that out? If someone would have scumalipped I would agree with lynching them, but we don't have strong reads here. So let's just lynch teamlyle, take the extra day IN ANY SCENARIO (scum!teamlyle and town!teamlyle) and start lynching our top scumreads tomorrow where our odds have improved.

The problem is that lynching teamlyle might create a stubborn non-talkative IC that's stuck on voting for me. In that case the theoretical superiority of that plan doesn't really help. But I'm totally with you otherwise.

Better than a live stubborn not-IC and a shorter number of days...

[faust]

Vote Count 1.5

Eevee (2): mcmcsalot, Witherweaver
teamlyle (2): silverspawn, Clalamitas
silverspawn (3): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle
Calamitas (2): gkrieg13, J Reggie
Witherweaver (1): Robz888
pacovf (1): LaLight

Not Voting (1): pacovf

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time.

I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes. Faust, can you confirm that?

See sample PMs for the mafia win condition.

[silverspawn]

Better than a live stubborn not-IC and a shorter number of days...

Most likely it'd be the same number of days and then it's worse.

[Calamitas]

Better than a live stubborn not-IC and a shorter number of days...

Most likely it'd be the same number of days and then it's worse.

It wouldn't, why should it?

[Calamitas]

In this game we can afford 2.5 misslynches we can afford (2 misslynches and 1 no-lynch).
Lynching a restless spirit doesn't count as misslynch for that count, it has the same effect as no-lynch in that specific regard (a little better since 2 scum + town + restless spirit scenarios are actually winnable).
BUT, and this is a huge but, it doesn't have the downsides of no-lynch. We still have a decent chance to hit scum (it is not that much lower than in the case of other lynches) and we are able to still reduce our lynchpool. Our reads are a bit better in the future, but we definitely are going to lynch teamlyle at some point. At MyLo at latest. But that way we waste a good day (higher scum density, more info...) instead of D1 with a plain 25% chance of hitting scum.

Guys, please vote teamlyle. It is the right call and orders of magnitudes better than everything else!!!!!

[silverspawn]

doesn't work out of lynched!teamlyle doesn't try to play the game properly

vote: eevee

[Calamitas]

doesn't work out of lynched!teamlyle doesn't try to play the game properly

vote: eevee

It does work out. It still gives us an additional day!

[silverspawn]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

[Calamitas]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

He will cooperate, he isn't stupid

[Calamitas]

Come on guys, don't you see that not lynching teamlyle would be just insane...we are going to do it at mylo anyways (we are an even number) and today is just orders of magnitudes better. Even town!teamlyle should see that and self-vote...

[LaLight]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.

[Calamitas]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.

Then you don't agree with me. Unless you are really really sure that silver is scum (let's say way beyond 50%) you should not vote anyone else!!!

[LaLight]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.

Then you don't agree with me. Unless you are really really sure that silver is scum (let's say way beyond 50%) you should not vote anyone else!!!

Hey, don't shout

We have time left, I'll see how this will work out, hear to people. Silver is way scummy, I'm not sure about percentage

[Calamitas]

To make my point even clearer, let's look into a MyLo scenario with a live teamlyle:

- Misslynching town loses
- No-Lynch doesn't lose
- Teamlyle is still not confirmed town
- Misslynch of town!Teamlyle doesn't lose since town preserves a majority of the votes

==> The only sensible thing to do in that scenario is lynching Teamlyle. He is not mod-confirmed and lynching him doesn't harm in terms of ending the game. The lynch of him provides just additional information. There is no way town would not lynch Teamlyle in that scenario, no way.

Since we face an even-numbered setup, we are insanely likely to end up in a MyLo scenario. At that point teamlyle is just going to get lynched, period.
But the decisive thing is that we can do the same thing just earlier, today! Then, the Day that would otherwise be MyLo would be just a regular day where a misslynch doesn't lose town the game.
And the thing is that being able to scumhunt that day (instead of lynching Teamlyle) is just better than being able to scumhunt today where the chance of hitting actual scum is tiny anyway.

[Calamitas]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.

Then you don't agree with me. Unless you are really really sure that silver is scum (let's say way beyond 50%) you should not vote anyone else!!!

Hey, don't shout

We have time left, I'll see how this will work out, hear to people. Silver is way scummy, I'm not sure about percentage

Remember the last day of RMM35, don't want to face something like that again. I was right that time and I'm this time as well. Teamlyle is definitely the way to go here.

[silverspawn]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Go back and read his posts.

[mcmcsalot]

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Go back and read his posts.

I did and vote:teamlyle I don't believe his reasoning for claiming under such little pressure. He hasn't continued defending himself as I expect town. Also his statement about not having good reads and wanting us to help him get better to better use his power is silly. It's a defense that pulls at the emotional empathetic reasons not to lynch and not the logical or factual reasons, and I maintain that town should be better than that.

[Eevee]

You are not taking into account any of our power roles - doesn't it change the equation if we have two kills instead of one, or no kills some night?

[Eevee]

"town should be better than that"

This is a thing scum says because they know they are mislynching.

[Calamitas]

You are not taking into account any of our power roles - doesn't it change the equation if we have two kills instead of one, or no kills some night?

Sure it does have a influence, but not enough of an influence to justify not lynching teamlyle.

[LaLight]

Alright. vote: teamlyle

[silverspawn]

vote: teamlyle

[Eevee]

Rereading silverspawn:

Up until the WW-debacle, I would say he looks towny to me - I agree with pretty much everything he's said - but then again from my perspective the stance he took on mcmc v eevee is what a reasonable guy would do -> what silverspawn would want to do as scum. Like, to me it makes sense to whiteknight me, because I don't see merit in mcmc's case. YMMV here of course.


Then there is the asking of reasons from people who are voting for me, which, again, I think is good posting. As noted earlier, I didn't like that silver seemed more interested in putting out the towny looking question than he did about analyzing and scrutinizing the answers (remember, he already has a place for his vote in mcmc).

Next up is shifting his vote around a little (Calamitas although that was instantly moved, J Reggie, Gkrieg, back to J Reggie) I can't make anything of it for either direction with no explanations given (and this is really just a playstyle difference I think, I'm a cautious voter, probably too much so).


then there is a vote on teamlyle with a little unsure "i think this is good", which again I think is the scum position - its an alibi for tomorrow.

next up is theorizing about the restless spirit. i really appreciate silver putting actual numbers to his ideas to make them easier to grasp. awarding good human points, if not town points.


Now #495 I don't like so much (it's the theory post about how the games would go if we random lynch) - the whole idea of the game is that scum tries to game it better than random for them, and we try to catch them in the act. I appreciate the effort, but I think it's missing the fundamental idea of the game, which is the interactions between people, and scum having to balance getting caught and working against their own win condition. I also disagree a lot about the value of lynching scum day 1 vs day 2 - the first scum lynch REALLY makes the subsequent lynches SO much easier. I think "when day was the first scum killed" might be one of the best indicators of which side is going to win the game. Has scum ever won a game after losing a member day 1?

-Cites pacovf as his second strongest town read (I think that's fine, pacovf has been reasonable. but again, makes it a pretty safe position - no one is really pushing for pacofv, are they?)


Next, he says he has no scumreads, and that he'd be fine lynching me for the information - the same thing that i've been talking about in regards to teamlyle applies here as well - there is a built in alibi for silver when I flip town tomorrow, and better yet, he can use the "information" whatever way he likes, like spinning on some other town player for tomorrow's target. Also, silver was very clear about his feelings on mcmc's case (even voted for mcmc for it), which makes me even more strongly like this. Like, I was under quite heavy fire, silver said "hey this case sucks dont vote for eevee", and now he is ok lynching me "for information?"

I just realized that votes look way more threatening if they are all all caps. I think we should introduce a rule that they count double.

VOTE: SILVERSPAWN

[gkrieg13]

This is just sad if that was the lynch.

[LaLight]

This is just sad if that was the lynch.

You mean Teamlyle? He has like 4 votes.

[gkrieg13]

This is just sad if that was the lynch.

You mean Teamlyle? He has like 4 votes.

Ok good.

[LaLight]

I don't like Eevee spreading votes. We can come to no lynch this way.

[LaLight]

This is just sad if that was the lynch.

You mean Teamlyle? He has like 4 votes.

Ok good.

What's your position on Teamlyle and Calamitas' theory?

[gkrieg13]

vote: silverspawn

[gkrieg13]

This is just sad if that was the lynch.

You mean Teamlyle? He has like 4 votes.

Ok good.

What's your position on Teamlyle and Calamitas' theory?

I don't really like it.

[LaLight]

Alright, Vote: Silver L-2. We need to consolidate votes.

[gkrieg13]

Alright, Vote: Silver L-2. We need to consolidate votes.

Is the deadline really that soon?

[Robz888]

When is the deadline? I'm prepared to vote silverspawn.

[LaLight]

Alright, Vote: Silver L-2. We need to consolidate votes.

Is the deadline really that soon?

Well, 17 hours. In 3-4 hours I will be afk till the deadlin, want my vote to be in the right spot. I'm afraid of no lynch, too many people.

PPE: 1

[Calamitas]

This is just sad if that was the lynch.

You mean Teamlyle? He has like 4 votes.

Ok good.

What's your position on Teamlyle and Calamitas' theory?

I don't really like it.

Why don't you like it, it is just plain right

[Calamitas]

Don't put your vote away from teamlyle LaLight, no lynch is not going to happen.

[Calamitas]

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

[teamlyle]

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1. No.
2. 75%.
3. 100%.
4. You do realize that if I'm alive, the number of votes needed to lynch is increased.

[Eevee]

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1. I'm really not sure. I've been a part of some pretty sucky day 2s after we tried random lynching or something like that. It has just never worked out to not play a natural day 1, lynching the scummiest person. I understand this is a frustrating argument for someone approaching it so analytically as you.

2. I feel goood about my case, for day 1. And, at least it's A CASE, there is stuff to analyze even if it ends up being misguided. Conversely, as much as I feel silver is a good shot at hitting scum, I feel that teamlyle is like the most likely person to be town. The claim makes so much more sense coming from a newer town with an exciting role, than it does from someone appearing to be a little lost in the game... would scum that is this way be so bold to claim a role where lynching you is this lucrative for town? I don't think he'd do that, I just don't.

3. ^ Biggest townread, even.

4. Dead teamlyle's don't tell tales. Or talk at all otherwise. We'd be missing out.

[Eevee]

1.5 days is plenty to get any lynch here, really. The activity has been picking up, which is nice.

[Calamitas]

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1. No.
2. 75%.
3. 100%.
4. You do realize that if I'm alive, the number of votes needed to lynch is increased.

@1: Okay, where do you think is the flaw in #526?
@2: And you are saying you have bad reads O.o
@3: Sure
@4: Yep, but the scenarios are still better. Here a more detailed analysis:

3 town, 2 scum, 0 spirits: LyLo situation (3 votes required, scum has 2, town has 3)
2 town, 2 scum, 1 spirits: MyLo situation (3 votes required, scum has 2, town has 3)

2 town, 2 scum, 0 spirits: Lost situation  (3 votes required, scum has 2, town has 2)
1 town, 2 scum, 1 spirits: LyLo situation (2 votes required, scum has 2, town has 2) --> Special LyLo, but winnable

 

[Calamitas]

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1. I'm really not sure. I've been a part of some pretty sucky day 2s after we tried random lynching or something like that. It has just never worked out to not play a natural day 1, lynching the scummiest person. I understand this is a frustrating argument for someone approaching it so analytically as you.

2. I feel goood about my case, for day 1. And, at least it's A CASE, there is stuff to analyze even if it ends up being misguided. Conversely, as much as I feel silver is a good shot at hitting scum, I feel that teamlyle is like the most likely person to be town. The claim makes so much more sense coming from a newer town with an exciting role, than it does from someone appearing to be a little lost in the game... would scum that is this way be so bold to claim a role where lynching you is this lucrative for town? I don't think he'd do that, I just don't.

3. ^ Biggest townread, even.

4. Dead teamlyle's don't tell tales. Or talk at all otherwise. We'd be missing out.

@1: The thing is, in a MyLo situation we are going to take out Teamlyle anyways (or point out a flaw in #526, don't see one). So we are going to have one day where we don't necessarily lynch the scummiest person. The later we do that, the more of a good day we use like that.

Let's look it this way:

Not lynching teamlyle:

- D1: Little-no info - Regular Lynch
- D2: More info  - Regular Lynch
- D3 (MyLo) : Lot more info - Teamlyle lynch because of MyLo
- D4: Guaranteed to happen, little more info than D3

Lynching teamlyle:

- D1: Little-no info - Teamlyle lynch
- D2: More info, but less than in aboves D2 - Regular lynch
- D3: Lot more info (less than in aboves D3, but more than in aboves D2) - Regular lynch
- D4: Guaranteed to happen, lot more info than D3 (similar amount of total info than aboves D4)

@2: Well below 50%, isn't it?

@3: Fair enough

@4: The most crucial info can be shared (I think X is scummy, I agree/disagree with statement Y, I want to lynch A,B but not C) and I was speaking primarly of endgame scenarios in terms of "Is this one still winnable or not"

[teamlyle]

1. You said it yourself in this post:

I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes.

The explicit win condition is "You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening."

The implicit win condition is controlling at least half of the vote, because then town can't fight back anymore. Restless Spirit prevents that by as much as a living town player.

Not by as much. Consider a scenario with 2 scum and 1 town and 1 restless spirit. Scum will enter the day quickhammering, town only has a chance if the restless spirit gambles correctly, enters the day voting scum and town is the first to hammer. 2scum + 2town would be a totally different scenario.

How would you know that scum would enter the day quickhammering? Does scum have a day chat? Oh wait, how would you know that? Also, I don't see why we shouldn't lynch scum instead of town in any scenario. Let's say we lynched scum instead of the restless spirit the night before, then we have 1 scum and 2 town. Much better.

2. Yes, I do have bad reads. I can't develop a read on everyone. Silver is trying to speed up my lynch instead of answering my question about how to read people better, so that I won't know what to do when I'm dead. He's also using rhetoric, since he's the best mafia player here. Like that post where he just quoted me and put "...".

3. You know that I'm town too, Mr. Scum.

4. See #1

PPE 1

[Robz888]

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1. I'm really not sure. I've been a part of some pretty sucky day 2s after we tried random lynching or something like that. It has just never worked out to not play a natural day 1, lynching the scummiest person. I understand this is a frustrating argument for someone approaching it so analytically as you.

2. I feel goood about my case, for day 1. And, at least it's A CASE, there is stuff to analyze even if it ends up being misguided. Conversely, as much as I feel silver is a good shot at hitting scum, I feel that teamlyle is like the most likely person to be town. The claim makes so much more sense coming from a newer town with an exciting role, than it does from someone appearing to be a little lost in the game... would scum that is this way be so bold to claim a role where lynching you is this lucrative for town? I don't think he'd do that, I just don't.

3. ^ Biggest townread, even.

4. Dead teamlyle's don't tell tales. Or talk at all otherwise. We'd be missing out.

Eevee basically nails it in this post, but I'll do one anyway.

1. No. For instance, it's not better if there's a Vig in this game. Also I don't really understand why we have to lynch him on Day 1. We have to lynch him at some point, yes. But your analysis is assuming he's town, in which case, it's better to keep a town player alive for longer, to benefit from his reads. He's going to be a dead IC who can't talk, and that significantly detracts from his utility. You're putting  a lot of emphasis on the improved MYLO aspect of this, but I'd rather not plan to get to MYLO. Games that are won get won early, more often than not.

2. Every player has, what, a 25% chance to be scum? More than that, actually, because I know I'm not scum, so it's 3/11, whatever that is. I think mcmc and in all honesty Eevee at this point (so obvious now that in hindsight their fight was town on town) are very likely town, so that brings it down to about 3/9. I'm also pretty sure teamlyle is actually town. So I'd give my top scum!read something like 50% chance of being scum. Scum to town: WitherWeaver, silverspawn, SA, JReggie, gkrieg, pacovf, LaLight, Calamitas. Something like that.

3. Maybe 70%.

4. Yes, but we can just lynch him then.

[Calamitas]

1. You said it yourself in this post:

I am confused by silver's analysis of the role though, it should not affect when scum wins, I assume their win condition involves only living players, not total number of votes.

The explicit win condition is "You win when all town-aligned players are dead, and there is at least one mafia-aligned player left alive, or nothing can stop that from happening."

The implicit win condition is controlling at least half of the vote, because then town can't fight back anymore. Restless Spirit prevents that by as much as a living town player.

Not by as much. Consider a scenario with 2 scum and 1 town and 1 restless spirit. Scum will enter the day quickhammering, town only has a chance if the restless spirit gambles correctly, enters the day voting scum and town is the first to hammer. 2scum + 2town would be a totally different scenario.

How would you know that scum would enter the day quickhammering? Does scum have a day chat? Oh wait, how would you know that? Also, I don't see why we shouldn't lynch scum instead of town in any scenario. Let's say we lynched scum instead of the restless spirit the night before, then we have 1 scum and 2 town. Much better.

2. Yes, I do have bad reads. I can't develop a read on everyone. Silver is trying to speed up my lynch instead of answering my question about how to read people better, so that I won't know what to do when I'm dead. He's also using rhetoric, since he's the best mafia player here. Like that post where he just quoted me and put "...".

3. You know that I'm town too, Mr. Scum.

4. See #1

PPE 1

Simple answer: Because I have a brain
Complicated answer: Scum has the required number of votes they need to win the game. Scum has nightchat --> As soon as the day starts, scum quickhammers town

[teamlyle]

Also, you "forgot" about the UB. If you lynch me today, the UB won't get any power role.

[teamlyle]

Complicated answer: Scum has the required number of votes they need to win the game. Scum has nightchat --> As soon as the day starts, scum quickhammers town

Yeah, and so then it's GG. Why is that any better?

[Robz888]

This, I think, is your cruciaul misstep:

Not lynching teamlyle:

- D1: Little-no info - Regular Lynch

Lynching teamlyle:

- D1: Little-no info - Teamlyle lynch

Because I don't think these two things are actually equivalent.

[teamlyle]

Simple answer: Because I have a brain

It never says anywhere in the setup whether or not scum has a daychat.

[Calamitas]

This, I think, is your cruciaul misstep:

Not lynching teamlyle:

- D1: Little-no info - Regular Lynch

Lynching teamlyle:

- D1: Little-no info - Teamlyle lynch

Because I don't think these two things are actually equivalent.

It is not. The info we have right on D1 is similar. The info we have after D1 is different, this is quite clear.

[Calamitas]

Complicated answer: Scum has the required number of votes they need to win the game. Scum has nightchat --> As soon as the day starts, scum quickhammers town

Yeah, and so then it's GG. Why is that any better?

But town has the required numbers to win this is as well. Townie + Restless Spirit have a majority as well

[teamlyle]

Okay, let's say that we do lynch scum. Then we have 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 restless spirit. But what then? The last town dies because of the NK, and then GG.

Also, were you looking to avoid answering about how come you "forgot" the UB?

[Calamitas]

Also, you "forgot" about the UB. If you lynch me today, the UB won't get any power role.

The chance that we have one is actually quite low (Single 'V' role is more than 3 times as likely as a roll with 2 or more 'V's). But yeah, that would be a downside

[teamlyle]

All games include a Universal Back-Up.

[SpaceAnemone]

Sorry I'm not keeping up with the game very well -- I've got rather too many things going on just now :-( Like, I'm in the middle of hosting a party right now, but it's the only time I could find to get on the forum!

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1) I'm undecided on this, because what you fail to model in your assertions is how the lack of information from flips, gut-reads and player interactions.

2) Low.

3) ~80% maybe?

Oops.. gotta go.. more guests arriving!

[Robz888]

All games include a Universal Back-Up.

[teamlyle]

I know what you're going to say nex.t

--The Universal Backup can never inherit a Restless Spirit's power.

[Calamitas]

** Single V rolls result in the Universal Backup converting to a Restless Spirit

[teamlyle]

Did you read my previous post?

[Robz888]

Calamitas, if, say, a Roleblocker dies first, the UB becomes a Roleblocker. If teamlyle is a Restless Spirit and dies first, UB gets nothing.

[Calamitas]

Calamitas, if, say, a Roleblocker dies first, the UB becomes a Roleblocker. If teamlyle is a Restless Spirit and dies first, UB gets nothing.

I know. But the thing is that the probability of actually having a UB if teamlyle is town (otherwise it doesn't matter) is only 1/4.

[Calamitas]

Did you read my previous post?

Yep, somehow didn't notice that. But the point that it is never worse still stands (and will stand)

[teamlyle]

Yes, it is worse. All games include a Universal Back-up.

[teamlyle]

And it's especially good for scum if a restless spirit dies first because of it (idk why I claimed restless spirit  )

[Robz888]

Yes, it is worse. All games include a Universal Back-up.

What Calamitas is saying--correctly--is that in one of the scenarios where have a Restless Spirit, it's because the UB was converted to a Restless Spirit pre-game. That's what happens with a single V role.

Where he's getting the 1 in 4 statistic from I can't tell.

[teamlyle]

Oh, okay. That makes sense.

[Calamitas]

Yes, it is worse. All games include a Universal Back-up.

What Calamitas is saying--correctly--is that in one of the scenarios where have a Restless Spirit, it's because the UB was converted to a Restless Spirit pre-game. That's what happens with a single V role.

Where he's getting the 1 in 4 statistic from I can't tell.

Have used my simulator

[Robz888]

I do feel like Calamitas would definitely be on this crusade regardless of his alignment. I think he can't resist making stats-based arguments.

[gkrieg13]

But doesn't all of your stuff not take into account of people actually having to lynch someone who isn't already IC?

I think the fact that we have crazy less information D2 is the biggest thing for me.  People taking stances on lynching teamlyle doesn't give us much, but the fact that we are giving up an opportunity to lynch scum is a big deal!

Even if we lynch him later, it is much better to lynch someone who gives us information on where people are standing.  You are essentially saying it would've been better to start D1 with a restless spirit and one fewer town.  That is ridiculous!

If we lynch teamlyle today, it will be similar to us starting D1 all over again, because taking a stand on teamlyle is pretty alignment unindicative.

[gkrieg13]

I do feel like Calamitas would definitely be on this crusade regardless of his alignment. I think he can't resist making stats-based arguments.

I agree that he is similar to faust and ashersky, he makes setup posts regardless of alignment and sticks to them

[Robz888]

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

[Calamitas]

But doesn't all of your stuff not take into account of people actually having to lynch someone who isn't already IC?

I think the fact that we have crazy less information D2 is the biggest thing for me.  People taking stances on lynching teamlyle doesn't give us much, but the fact that we are giving up an opportunity to lynch scum is a big deal!

Even if we lynch him later, it is much better to lynch someone who gives us information on where people are standing.  You are essentially saying it would've been better to start D1 with a restless spirit and one fewer town.  That is ridiculous!

If we lynch teamlyle today, it will be similar to us starting D1 all over again, because taking a stand on teamlyle is pretty alignment unindicative.

TEAMLYLE IS NOT AN IC!!!!!

[Robz888]

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

[Calamitas]

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

But it's clearly not enough to justify not lynching teamlyle here...

[Calamitas]

Teamlyle is going to get lynched in every MyLo scenario. There is no realistic scenario that makes this statement false (if there is, please point one out).

The question is, do we have a better shot at winning the game if we delay the lynch up until then. Can we agree that this is the question we have to deal with (@robz, @eevee, @SA)?

[Calamitas]

Teamlyle is going to get lynched in every MyLo scenario. There is no realistic scenario that makes this statement false (if there is, please point one out).

The question is, do we have a better shot at winning the game if we delay the lynch up until then. Can we agree that this is the question we have to deal with (@robz, @eevee, @SA)?

And @gkrieg

[LaLight]

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

Well, when there's too much people, 17 hours may be not a big amount of time. I still remember all these no lynches or mislynches that depended on 20-30% of people online on deadline. Usually someone says "Well, I'm departing 2 hours before DL" and then no one can lynch the scummiest player. That's why.

[Calamitas]

Vote: silverspawn

That's L-1. Want to give silverspawn enough time to claim, since this seems to be where we are headed. Think he said he had to depart for good soon.

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

Well, when there's too much people, 17 hours may be not a big amount of time. I still remember all these no lynches or mislynches that depended on 20-30% of people online on deadline. Usually someone says "Well, I'm departing 2 hours before DL" and then no one can lynch the scummiest player. That's why.

please put your vote on teamlyle if you think that is right, we won't have a no lynch. Enough active people are lingering around

[Robz888]

Teamlyle is going to get lynched in every MyLo scenario. There is no realistic scenario that makes this statement false (if there is, please point one out).

The question is, do we have a better shot at winning the game if we delay the lynch up until then. Can we agree that this is the question we have to deal with (@robz, @eevee, @SA)?

Yes, that's the question, and I think the answer is no, in large part because there's very low chance of lynching scum on Day 1 if we lynch teamlyle, and much higher chance if lynch someone from my narrower pool, and lynching scum on Day 1 is what matters. And then even if we fail at that, we have much better info.

[Robz888]

And Calamitas, I don't mind you continuing to drive this home and argue with us, but it is a problem if you do that instead of taking positions. Like, I would like to know what you thought of my suspicions of LaLight.

Also, do you think I'm scummy for disagreeing with? Is Eevee? Is gkrieg?

[Calamitas]

And Calamitas, I don't mind you continuing to drive this home and argue with us, but it is a problem if you do that instead of taking positions. Like, I would like to know what you thought of my suspicions of LaLight.

Also, do you think I'm scummy for disagreeing with? Is Eevee? Is gkrieg?

I don't really have stances on the latter ones and I don't think the stuff in regard to LaLight is pretty alignment indicative.

[Calamitas]

Okay, now let's look whether an earlier lynch of teamlyle is better than a later one:

I agree that we have a slightly smaller chance of hitting scum today. But it is not really much I think. Silver has done nothing pretty alignment indicative I think, he is an insanely good scum player after all.
Tomorrow, we would have a notably smaller amount of information, but it is not as much as one might think. Really, the only thing we would have more is the silver flip. Most have already stated their  opinions on him. And I wouldn't call the teamlyle flip that unindicative. A scum flip would obviously be pretty indicative and in case of a townflip we have still things we can work with. The scum night kill will give us additional info as well, in either case.

The actually decisive moment is the day where we would otherwise lynch teamlyle (MyLo). In terms of information and odds, this day is our best shot at hitting scum. The discrepancy of information between both D2s doesn't outweigh the discrepancy between being able to use the later day (D3/D4 or D5; dependent on when MyLo would be) for a scumhunting lynch instead of taking out Teamlyle then.
By lynching teamlyle today, we are trading off information we have tomorrow against an additional late day we may use for lynching. And the latter one is a lot more important than the former.

[pacovf]

Not read everything yet, but the deadline is TOMORROW AT 4AM. The deadline is definitely REALLY close. Will read and post again.

[pacovf]

I mean, your argument depends on us reaching MYLO naturally. Which is not guaranteed to happen, there could be roleblocking, virgins, vigs, etc. And then your argument falls short. Especially since teamlyle can be IC-ified from later setup considerations (presence of UB, scum flips, massclaim).

[pacovf]

Theory talk is not alignment indicative, and that's what we are spending the end of D1 on. Considering that (IMHO) your conclusion is just not solid enough, we should stop that and go into a regular alignment-based lynch.

Sorry for the triple post.

[Calamitas]

I mean, your argument depends on us reaching MYLO naturally. Which is not guaranteed to happen, there could be roleblocking, virgins, vigs, etc. And then your argument falls short. Especially since teamlyle can be IC-ified from later setup considerations (presence of UB, scum flips, massclaim).

Not really, in that scenario it is strictly better I say. It is pretty good in every scenario because we get a flip and a lynchpool reduction without losing a vote in any given scenario. Also, we still have a quite decent chance of hitting scum. And the chance of ending up in MyLo is still way greater than 50%.

[pacovf]

Are you arguing that teamlyle is likely to be scum?

What do you make of my argument that his alignment will eventually be revealed anyway because of setup considerations?

[Robz888]

I'm procrastinating doing some IRL work, so I did post counts for everybody.

Calamitas: 73
Robz888: 57
Eevee: 54
Silverspawn: 50
Witherweaver: 39
mcmcsalot: 35
Pacovf: 33
Gkrieg: 32
Teamlyle: 31
LaLight: 23
SpaceAnenome: 20
J Reggie: 19

And I almost wish I hadn't, because this makes me less enthused about lynching silverspawn. I feel like there's gotta be a scum down there on the lower end. I'm already quite suspicious of those people anyway.

J Reggie, I noticed, had a huge number of pre-game posts, and very few actual game posts. I've always found that scummy.

[Calamitas]

Are you arguing that teamlyle is likely to be scum?

What do you make of my argument that his alignment will eventually be revealed anyway because of setup considerations?

I'm arguing that teamlyle is not enough less likely to be scum to justify not taking the much reduced drawbacks that are linked to his lynch.
I would maybe put 20% on him being scum.

[pacovf]

Are you arguing that teamlyle is likely to be scum?

What do you make of my argument that his alignment will eventually be revealed anyway because of setup considerations?

I'm arguing that teamlyle is not enough less likely to be scum to justify not taking the much reduced drawbacks that are linked to his lynch.
I would maybe put 20% on him being scum.

You are ignoring half my argument there.

I'm procrastinating doing some IRL work, so I did post counts for everybody.

Calamitas: 73
Robz888: 57
Eevee: 54
Silverspawn: 50
Witherweaver: 39
mcmcsalot: 35
Pacovf: 33
Gkrieg: 32
Teamlyle: 31
LaLight: 23
SpaceAnenome: 20
J Reggie: 19

And I almost wish I hadn't, because this makes me less enthused about lynching silverspawn. I feel like there's gotta be a scum down there on the lower end. I'm already quite suspicious of those people anyway.

J Reggie, I noticed, had a huge number of pre-game posts, and very few actual game posts. I've always found that scummy.

I would normally be game to lynch any of the bottom three, but I am a bit wary about new wagons so close to deadline, because it tends to lead to late claims and random lynches. But, again, better that than no lynch.

[Robz888]

I would normally be game to lynch any of the bottom three, but I am a bit wary about new wagons so close to deadline, because it tends to lead to late claims and random lynches. But, again, better that than no lynch.

I agree, but we actually aren't super duper close to deadline yet. I suppose we will be soon, and there's very little going on. There are only a handful of active people at this moment, and one them (Calamitas) is monomaniacally focused on something other than scum-hunting.

[Robz888]

You know what, let's try this anyway. Vote: J Reggie

[Calamitas]

I would normally be game to lynch any of the bottom three, but I am a bit wary about new wagons so close to deadline, because it tends to lead to late claims and random lynches. But, again, better that than no lynch.

I agree, but we actually aren't super duper close to deadline yet. I suppose we will be soon, and there's very little going on. There are only a handful of active people at this moment, and one them (Calamitas) is monomaniacally focused on something other than scum-hunting.

Because it is just right...

[pacovf]

We are closer than it looks, because the deadline is in the middle of the night for Americans, and also because most people tend to be less active during the weekend. I know I won't be available this night, other than a quick vote change before going to bed if necessary.

Keeping my vote on silver unless the activity of the thread suddenly picks up.

[Robz888]

I'll be prepared to move back to Silverspawn if need be.

[Calamitas]

Are you arguing that teamlyle is likely to be scum?

What do you make of my argument that his alignment will eventually be revealed anyway because of setup considerations?

I'm arguing that teamlyle is not enough less likely to be scum to justify not taking the much reduced drawbacks that are linked to his lynch.
I would maybe put 20% on him being scum.

You are ignoring half my argument there.

Well, to actually IC someone here we would need a bunch of information. We would need to know that there is no UB or at least have info about 4 letters

[pacovf]

Well, to actually IC someone here we would need a bunch of information. We would need to know that there is no UB or at least have info about 4 letters

That is going to happen eventually. In my experience, there is always a massclaim late game for 9++ setups.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.6

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (5): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight
Calamitas (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (1): pacovf

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time. THat's in 13.5 hours.

[Calamitas]

Well, to actually IC someone here we would need a bunch of information. We would need to know that there is no UB or at least have info about 4 letters

That is going to happen eventually. In my experience, there is always a massclaim late game for 9++ setups.

But is that info enough to actually find out 4 letters?

[pacovf]

Wait I thought I was voting for silver already?

vote: silverspawn

L-1

[pacovf]

Well, to actually IC someone here we would need a bunch of information. We would need to know that there is no UB or at least have info about 4 letters

That is going to happen eventually. In my experience, there is always a massclaim late game for 9++ setups.

But is that info enough to actually find out 4 letters?

The absence of a UB guarantees that teamlyle is not lying, unless we have another Restless Spirit or a Governor. Otherwise, we would need information from scum flips.

[pacovf]

Actually, I am going to stop telling scum what to fakeclaim.

[Eevee]

I'm having a board game night with friends, sort of following along from phone in case of claims or other big things, but not much else for a few hours still.

[silverspawn]

If you don't want me to play mafia, just say it. I'm sorry for being correct on game theory. You all know that I know what stance is considered scummy and what isn't. eevee, just because someone made a terrible case on you doesn't mean you get town cred. I shouldn't have to say this.

[silverspawn]

do whatever you want. but I refuse to take responsibility for this lynch. I've not been lazy, I haven't been lurking, or any other mistake. This is your fault.

[Robz888]

You going to claim, Silverspawn?

[pacovf]

do whatever you want. but I refuse to take responsibility for this lynch. I've not been lazy, I haven't been lurking, or any other mistake. This is your fault.

It's more of a case of no one coming out as super scummy, and so much time spent on teamlyle that not enough was left for actual scumhunting. I am not voting for you because you are pushing teamlyle, but if you and Calamitas hadn't, maybe something else might have come up instead.

Besides, I still disagree with the conclusions from you and Calamitas, as I've pointed out before for what I believe to be good reasons. Sorry if this makes you feel like not playing, becaus I definitely enjoy having you around.

[J Reggie]

intent to hammer

Sorry for being AWOL. Ss please claim. If not I'll hammer you

[J Reggie]

Vote Count 1.6

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (5): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight
Calamitas (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (1): pacovf

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 starts now and ends December 18 at 4 am forum time. THat's in 13.5 hours.

That's an awfully short day 

[SpaceAnemone]

Okay, back again now that my party guests have all gone.

I don't feel so good about the silver lynch, TBH :-(

Calamitas is like a broken record a bit.. I'm actually tempted to move my vote to him, in that playing the probabilities to the exclusion of any form of scum-hunting and dominating/derailing the conversation is actually not pro-town when it comes to looking for more alignment stuff on later days. Would there be enough people awake and interested in that for a switch to be a possibility?

Calamitas, if you were to postpone the idea of lynching teamlyle to D2, and trying to go after scum for D1 instead, what does your lynch pool look like? (Yes, I understand the reasons why you feel this is the less informative way round to operate etc etc... I just want to know anyway).

[J Reggie]

I'd be fine with a calamitas lynch but ss seems more sensible to me now.

[Calamitas]

Okay, back again now that my party guests have all gone.

I don't feel so good about the silver lynch, TBH :-(

Calamitas is like a broken record a bit.. I'm actually tempted to move my vote to him, in that playing the probabilities to the exclusion of any form of scum-hunting and dominating/derailing the conversation is actually not pro-town when it comes to looking for more alignment stuff on later days. Would there be enough people awake and interested in that for a switch to be a possibility?

Calamitas, if you were to postpone the idea of lynching teamlyle to D2, and trying to go after scum for D1 instead, what does your lynch pool look like? (Yes, I understand the reasons why you feel this is the less informative way round to operate etc etc... I just want to know anyway).

Basically {Player-basis}-{Calamitas}
But anyways, do you really think I'm more likely to act like that as scum than town?

[SpaceAnemone]

But anyways, do you really think I'm more likely to act like that as scum than town?

I think the marginal gain is higher as scum, because all you have to do is push logical set-up info and behave in a way that isn't going to give anyone any alignment info. And I think the reasons your model is flawed are subtle enough that's it's trivial to act like you clearly believe it, because it's a reasonable first-order approximation. But I think your model is not complex enough to fit observed Mafia game behaviour, so I don't trust it as the sole basis on which to pin almost all of the lynch discussion for D1.

If you show me a generative model of player behaviour that fits observed Mafia games, with latent variables allowing complexity of the sort that captures individual play styles, and can prove that under that sort of a model, your lynch play still has the edge, then I'm much more likely to believe you. As is, I think you're missing too many subtleties, and not even considering a distribution over likely end-states in your computations, so I can easily believe that you're smarter than this and just pushing your simple model in a scummy way.

[J Reggie]

If ss doesn't pay before I go to bed I'm voting.

[Calamitas]

But anyways, do you really think I'm more likely to act like that as scum than town?

I think the marginal gain is higher as scum, because all you have to do is push logical set-up info and behave in a way that isn't going to give anyone any alignment info. And I think the reasons your model is flawed are subtle enough that's it's trivial to act like you clearly believe it, because it's a reasonable first-order approximation. But I think your model is not complex enough to fit observed Mafia game behaviour, so I don't trust it as the sole basis on which to pin almost all of the lynch discussion for D1.

If you show me a generative model of player behaviour that fits observed Mafia games, with latent variables allowing complexity of the sort that captures individual play styles, and can prove that under that sort of a model, your lynch play still has the edge, then I'm much more likely to believe you. As is, I think you're missing too many subtleties, and not even considering a distribution over likely end-states in your computations, so I can easily believe that you're smarter than this and just pushing your simple model in a scummy way.

It's not like I'm usually giving much alignment info anyways D1...

But in regard to the model, you are plain wrong here. The qualitative advantage of lynching teamlyle should be god damn obvious, it shouldn't require me writing AGI for you to believe that.
The main points are:
- The only info we don't get if we lynch teamlyle today is the silver flip
- Instead, we win the teamlyle flip and don't risk the downside of lynching town!silver (which is STILL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO)
- By lynching teamlyle WE GAIN ANOTHER DAY

But I will give up, thought you would be more sensible SA.

[teamlyle]

If you don't want me to play mafia, just say it. I'm sorry for being correct on game theory.

But I will give up, thought you would be more sensible SA.

Guilt trips. You're both scum.

[Calamitas]

If you don't want me to play mafia, just say it. I'm sorry for being correct on game theory.

But I will give up, thought you would be more sensible SA.

Guilt trips. You're both scum.

Sure thing

[SpaceAnemone]

But in regard to the model, you are plain wrong here. The qualitative advantage of lynching teamlyle should be god damn obvious

I see there is a slight advantage if all other things are exactly as you assert. I just don't believe that's how it's most likely to play out.

it shouldn't require me writing AGI for you to believe that.

As an aside that's probably irrelevant to everyone else in the game, try looking up graphical models on wikipedia. When they don't have loops in the inference, they're trainable with a message-passing algorithm that's pretty much just an extension of the viterbi algorithm for hidden markov models. And they're powerful enough to model simple latent states without needing stupid amounts of training data. I think it would actually be quite fun to model Mafia games that way, but I simply don't have the time to parse all the past games in a way that produces good training data.

- The only info we don't get if we lynch teamlyle today is the silver flip

This may be true now, since it's almost too late for actual scum-hunting. But if you'd let this lie, or flooded the thread a but less, then actual scum-hunting could have taken place. While you've admitted that you're not good with D1 (nether am I!), there are others here who would have had to generate more content so as not to be seen as lurking, and that content would probably have been a much richer source of interactions if it wasn't just you and silver arguing against everyone on a technical point.

- Instead, we win the teamlyle flip and don't risk the downside of lynching town!silver (which is STILL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO)

So you read silver as town. That's good. One read.

If you're really convinced that you're 100% right about how well you've got this figured out, and how townie you are, aren't you worried about painting a big target on yourself for scums? Wouldn't it be better to put reads out there just in case?

- By lynching teamlyle WE GAIN ANOTHER DAY

This holds equally if he's lynched D2 or vigged.

PPE 2

[Calamitas]

I don't read silver as town. The probability I assign to him being scum is still pretty close to the prior of 25%. And I don't think anyone has (or you) has sufficient evidence to shift this upwards to above 50 which makes lynching town!silver the scenario everyone should expect when lynching silver. And that scenario is awful in comparison to a teamlyle lynch, REGARDLESS of his alignment.

[Calamitas]

This holds equally if he's lynched D2 or vigged.

But later days are much better for scumhunting in terms of odds.

But either way, now is now. I feel like we still have the possibility to lynch teamlyle. Do you really think it is better to lynch silver today just in order to gain his flip?

[SpaceAnemone]

So who else is online now and interested in trying to push something else through? It's just after midnight for me currently. I can be awake for about an hour more, maybe two, then I'll be asleep till after the deadline.

[Calamitas]

So who else is online now and interested in trying to push something else through? It's just after midnight for me currently. I can be awake for about an hour more, maybe two, then I'll be asleep till after the deadline.

It's 1:21am for me and I will be around for a while still. Anything other than out of {teamlyle, silver} is totally unrealistic though. Which option do you prefer?

[teamlyle]

@Calamitas: Lynching me does not "gain us another day." Did you read this? You probably did, but didn't want to acknowledge it.

Okay, let's say that we do lynch scum. Then we have 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 restless spirit. But what then? The last town dies because of the NK, and then GG.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas: Lynching me does not "gain us another day." Did you read this? You probably did, but didn't want to acknowledge it.

Okay, let's say that we do lynch scum. Then we have 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 restless spirit. But what then? The last town dies because of the NK, and then GG.

That would be a scenario where even an additional live person instead of the spirit wouldn't do anything. I agree, those don't exist.
But there is no scenario where a restless spirit instead of a live person does worse.

3 town, 2 scum is winnable but either is 2 town, 2 scum and 1 spirit.

[Calamitas]

But just for the record, why the hell did you even claim. Getting NKed would have been amazing with your role.

[pacovf]

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.

[Calamitas]

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.

I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

[teamlyle]

I panicked. If you really believe what you're saying, I'm probably going to die tonight. You're welcome

[Calamitas]

I panicked. If you really believe what you're saying, I'm probably going to die tonight. You're welcome

What the hell are you talking about?

[SpaceAnemone]

What the hell are you talking about?

I feel like your tone has been getting a bit aggressive in your most recent few posts. Maybe I'm misreading because text is hard to interpret, but could you please be aware that that's how you're coming across?

[Calamitas]

What the hell are you talking about?

I feel like your tone has been getting a bit aggressive in your most recent few posts. Maybe I'm misreading because text is hard to interpret, but could you please be aware that that's how you're coming across?

Nah, probably not missreading. It is quite late and I'm genuinely annoyed by senseless comments like that after investing that much effort. But yeah, you're right, probably need to tone down.

[pacovf]

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.

I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

Your point is that, if we would get to MYLO naturally, then lynching teamlyle is a "free lynch" (for a given definition of "free lynch", since scum might still get to quickhammer under those circumstances). The advantage of your plan is that we get the flip for teamlyle for free, assuming we would reach MYLO naturally, otherwise we just spent a lynch on someone that is likely to be town!

Second, the advantage of your plan can be emulated by a late game massclaim. Which does not require to take the risk of wasting a lynch! Hell, worst case scenario, even if the massclaim is not enough, we can still lynch teamlyle, no harm done! So your plan is strictly worse than waiting for a massclaim.

Last, but not least, even if going with your plan, you are not even sure if lynching teamlyle is something that is better done D1 or D4! An easy analogy is a lurker lynch. Something that anyone can get behind for reasons other than scuminess, completely non-accountable, and something that will likely have to be done at some point in the game. But ask any of the vets, and they will tell you that a lurker lynch D1 is a terrible idea, because if you are wrong, you start D2 with barely any new information compared to D1. D1 is the day when you try to get people to tie themselves to other people, post content, etc, so that you have something to analyze the two flips that come before D2.

Anyway, done.

[SpaceAnemone]

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.

[Calamitas]

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.

I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

Your point is that, if we would get to MYLO naturally, then lynching teamlyle is a "free lynch" (for a given definition of "free lynch", since scum might still get to quickhammer under those circumstances). The advantage of your plan is that we get the flip for teamlyle for free, assuming we would reach MYLO naturally, otherwise we just spent a lynch on someone that is likely to be town!

Second, the advantage of your plan can be emulated by a late game massclaim. Which does not require to take the risk of wasting a lynch! Hell, worst case scenario, even if the massclaim is not enough, we can still lynch teamlyle, no harm done! So your plan is strictly worse than waiting for a massclaim.

Last, but not least, even if going with your plan, you are not even sure if lynching teamlyle is something that is better done D1 or D4! An easy analogy is a lurker lynch. Something that anyone can get behind for reasons other than scuminess, completely non-accountable, and something that will likely have to be done at some point in the game. But ask any of the vets, and they will tell you that a lurker lynch D1 is a terrible idea, because if you are wrong, you start D2 with barely any new information compared to D1. D1 is the day when you try to get people to tie themselves to other people, post content, etc, so that you have something to analyze the two flips that come before D2.

Anyway, done.

The probability of reaching MyLo is way greater than 50% while the quotient between the probability that teamlyle is scum and the probability that silver is scum is not even close to 0.5
And I am sure that lynching teamlyle is better done D1 than D4, this is why I am even pressing this. The odds of hitting scum are way way way greater D4 than D2.

And lurker lynches are NOT a good analogy because lurker misslynches don't have reduced downsides. Here in more than half of all scenarios a teamlyle misslynch doesn't cost us a lynch.

And just for the record, isn't that exactly the sort of stuff you wanna avoid

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

[Calamitas]

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.

Does that sort of stuff count if there is a vote count in between? I think those are considered mod-confirmed, aren't they?

[SpaceAnemone]

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.

Does that sort of stuff count if there is a vote count in between? I think those are considered mod-confirmed, aren't they?

I'm not sure, hence the bolded question to get faust's attention. I've certainly seen players correct mods' counts a lot of times, so I know they're not set in stone. Paco himself commented that he'd thought he was already voting silver, but not till after count 1.6, when his original vote was just prior to count 1.5... The fact the error has persisted through two vote counts might be a bit problematic.

[pacovf]

Acting like teamlyle's alignment is (and will remain) unknowable is acting in bad faith, at this point. I have already stated how he can be IC-ified (or proven) scum later due to setup.

Also, any lynch where the odds of hitting scum are better than the prior is a good lynch. We don't need to reach a 50% confidence level.

I would agree with the last one in most setups but not this one. Even if teamlyle is able to get ICified (don't know how likely that is to happen) the lynch scenario is usually not that bad since we get another day in most scenarios (every scenario where we would end up in MyLo and the likelihood of ending up in MyLo is greater than 0.5)

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

Your point is that, if we would get to MYLO naturally, then lynching teamlyle is a "free lynch" (for a given definition of "free lynch", since scum might still get to quickhammer under those circumstances). The advantage of your plan is that we get the flip for teamlyle for free, assuming we would reach MYLO naturally, otherwise we just spent a lynch on someone that is likely to be town!

Second, the advantage of your plan can be emulated by a late game massclaim. Which does not require to take the risk of wasting a lynch! Hell, worst case scenario, even if the massclaim is not enough, we can still lynch teamlyle, no harm done! So your plan is strictly worse than waiting for a massclaim.

Last, but not least, even if going with your plan, you are not even sure if lynching teamlyle is something that is better done D1 or D4! An easy analogy is a lurker lynch. Something that anyone can get behind for reasons other than scuminess, completely non-accountable, and something that will likely have to be done at some point in the game. But ask any of the vets, and they will tell you that a lurker lynch D1 is a terrible idea, because if you are wrong, you start D2 with barely any new information compared to D1. D1 is the day when you try to get people to tie themselves to other people, post content, etc, so that you have something to analyze the two flips that come before D2.

Anyway, done.

The probability of reaching MyLo is way greater than 50% while the quotient between the probability that teamlyle is scum and the probability that silver is scum is not even close to 0.5
And I am sure that lynching teamlyle is better done D1 than D4, this is why I am even pressing this. The odds of hitting scum are way way way greater D4 than D2.

And lurker lynches are NOT a good analogy because lurker misslynches don't have reduced downsides. Here in more than half of all scenarios a teamlyle misslynch doesn't cost us a lynch.

And just for the record, isn't that exactly the sort of stuff you wanna avoid

Ok, last time I address this argument. If anyone starts talking about this again during D2 I am instantly voting for them. We've already lost one day of scumhunting, I will not let us lose a second one.

The reason why the odds of hitting scum D4 are greater than D1 is because we have extra information from the way people have acted during the previous 3 days, together with the flips. Lynching teamlyle is a non-accountable lynch, so it does not help your argument. In fact, wasting most of a day with theory talk is an even bigger part of the problem.

And you are still ignoring that we will get teamlyle's alignment with the massclaim, so your quotient between the odds of silver or teamlyle being scum is not applicable either.

[pacovf]

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.

Does that sort of stuff count if there is a vote count in between? I think those are considered mod-confirmed, aren't they?

I'm not sure, hence the bolded question to get faust's attention. I've certainly seen players correct mods' counts a lot of times, so I know they're not set in stone. Paco himself commented that he'd thought he was already voting silver, but not till after count 1.6, when his original vote was just prior to count 1.5... The fact the error has persisted through two vote counts might be a bit problematic.

It the hammer would have happened after an official vote count, I would say it should not count. But I guess it's up to Faust...

[Eevee]

I'm here!

No idea how the vote confusion will be resolved. Kind of problematic, I guess we go on as normal and wait for a mod decision, which probably won't come until tomorrow?

Also, drunk ama!

[pacovf]

ARE YOU SCUM?

[Eevee]

No, sir!

[Calamitas]

The primary reason why the odds are better D4 is not information, it is scum density. You could ask a monkey to point at one person and you will hit scum nearly twice as often.

Again, we aren't guaranteed to get his alignment. I don't have numbers on how likely this is but I don't think they are even remotely close to guarantees.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry but won't be around for deadline. Silverspawns ATE makes me still happy voting him though.

[J Reggie]

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

[pacovf]

Well, it does change when twilight ends, I guess (12h long since hammer).

Anything to add, silver?

[Witherweaver]

I haven't read anything; what's going on?

[Witherweaver]

So I've skimmed like five pages and deduced it was a waste of time.

[Witherweaver]

I don't agree with any of the lynch teamlyle stuff.

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

Is this a hammer?

[silverspawn]

Well, it does change when twilight ends, I guess (12h long since hammer).

Anything to add, silver?

I would not have played like this as scum.

Neither did I mess up in any way.

I gave you something real to differentiate and you fucked it up.

It's your fault.

That's all.

[faust]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

[faust]

Twilight began 6 hours ago and lasts until 10 am forum time.

[faust]

Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid?

Official vote counts always count over the actual votes placed. Sorry about the confusion.

[LaLight]

Oh i can write still.

[LaLight]

Well, it does change when twilight ends, I guess (12h long since hammer).

Anything to add, silver?

I would not have played like this as scum.

Neither did I mess up in any way.

I gave you something real to differentiate and you fucked it up.

It's your fault.

That's all.

Hey.
Don't be frustrated please. Yeah, okay, maybe we really f*cked it up and mislynched you and etc., but still it's a game. That very well might be a scum-driven wagon and people sheeped or gut feelings or anything else. I'm sorry this happened if you're town, but No one intended to offend you nor to say we don't want you to play mafia nor call some negative feelings from your side. Please, don't be mad/frustrated.

[mcmcsalot]

So I just caught up. On my honeymoon in the Caribbean but I have internet access on one phone so I plan on reading along and posting still. I hate the silver spawn lynch. I'm still not convinced I even believe teamlyles claim and I still think eevee is scummy from the beginning, and oh look eevee started the silver wagon and teamlyle is on it. the deadline looming talk was crazy, I think there was a lot more time when it was first brought up as a problem.

[mcmcsalot]

Jreggies vote is super scummy but in such an obvious way in not sure I get it. Like why oh why not wait for Faust to clarify and potentially let silver claim.

[teamlyle]

Well, it does change when twilight ends, I guess (12h long since hammer).

Anything to add, silver?

I would not have played like this as scum.

Neither did I mess up in any way.

I gave you something real to differentiate and you fucked it up.

It's your fault.

That's all.

We're sorry silver. Maybe we shouldn't have lynched you.

Honestly, besides the scum on the wagon (which there were probably a few of) the rest of us genuinely thought that you were scum. Please don't be mad.

[J Reggie]

Well, it does change when twilight ends, I guess (12h long since hammer).

Anything to add, silver?

I would not have played like this as scum.

Neither did I mess up in any way.

I gave you something real to differentiate and you fucked it up.

It's your fault.

That's all.

We're sorry silver. Maybe we shouldn't have lynched you.

Honestly, besides the scum on the wagon (which there were probably a few of) the rest of us genuinely thought that you were scum. Please don't be mad.

Maybe the scum genuinely thought he was scum. Because he's scum, maybe?

[silverspawn]

That was too harsh. I wouldn't have said the same things if there hadn't been stressed over other stuff, and that's not good... sorry. I take about 40% of that back.

VT, and the lynch was still stupid.

[mcmcsalot]

Well, it does change when twilight ends, I guess (12h long since hammer).

Anything to add, silver?

I would not have played like this as scum.

Neither did I mess up in any way.

I gave you something real to differentiate and you fucked it up.

It's your fault.

That's all.

We're sorry silver. Maybe we shouldn't have lynched you.

Honestly, besides the scum on the wagon (which there were probably a few of) the rest of us genuinely thought that you were scum. Please don't be mad.

Maybe the scum genuinely thought he was scum. Because he's scum, maybe?

Scum thinks this statement is way more comical than town. Still think jreggie is scum.

[silverspawn]

Not feeling scum on Eevee or pacovf. More on J Reggie and gkrieg. SA and teamlyle are probably town.

[LaLight]

Twilight is over I believe?

[faust]

The strange occurences that are the subject of this chronicle have taken place across many times and places. One of these points in time and space is Oran during the 1940s.

Dr Bernhard Rieux made one of his daily rounds at the hospital. The sickness had spread quickly across the city during the last weeks. The hospital was running out of space; the less wealthy patients were put on the floor due to a lack of hospital beds. Rieux leaned down towards one of them. "I will have to take a blood sample", he said. The patient showed no sign of understanding. Rieux sighed, and put the needle down his forearm to extract the contaminated blood. As he removed the needle, he saw a buring in the patients eyes. "Fascinating", he thought.

The patinet yelled: "It is you! The Grim Reaper!" He moved quicker than one would expect of a man in such a condition, snatched the needle from Rieux' hands and forced his own blood down into the doctor's veins.

silverspawn has been lynched! They were Dr Bernhard Rieux, (from Albert Camus' The Plague), the Vanilla Townie!

Night 1 begins now and lasts until December 20 at 4 am forum time. All night actions are due within 24 hours.

THREAD LOCKED!

[faust]

A note about holidays.

The 25th will be skipped for all deadline calculations, as well as the 1st of January.

For the 24th, 26th and 31st, every two hours on either of these days will count as a single hour for the purposes of deadline calculation.

[faust]

Night will will end on schedule at 10 pm forum time. I will unlock this so that schadd can start the Day. For all other purposes THE THREAD REMAINS LOCKED!

[schadd]

       I love writing under some sort of verbal constraint that forces me to stay within a narrow band of language. Once the reader and writer have "agreed upon" the constraint, virtuosity becomes possible. In any event, constraint helps me to proceed.
       -George Saunders

gkrieg13 has been killed in the night! He was Josef K. (from Franz Kafka's The Trial), the Vanilla Townie!

teamlyle has been killed in the night! He was Elizabeth Bennet (from Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice), the Restless Spirit!


Day 2 begins!


Vote Count 2.0
Not voting (10): LaLight, Calamitas, Witherweaver, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, J Reggie, teamlyle, Eevee, mcmcsalot, pacovf.


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 starts now and ends December 29, 10pm forum time.
thread unlocked, by the power vested in me.

[LaLight]

Eh, I really do not like the tendency of gkrieg never make it to even D2.

[LaLight]

10 Votes, 5 needed to lynch. Good position.

[LaLight]

Though we've lost our UB. Sorry, whoever you are.

[pacovf]

Though we've lost our UB. Sorry, whoever you are.

Wait, why?

Looks like we have a vig though. This could be a pretty quick game.

[LaLight]

Though we've lost our UB. Sorry, whoever you are.

Wait, why?

Looks like we have a vig though. This could be a pretty quick game.

He inherits the first role, but doesn't inherit Spirit.

[Calamitas]

Though we've lost our UB. Sorry, whoever you are.

Wait, why?

Looks like we have a vig though. This could be a pretty quick game.

He inherits the first role, but doesn't inherit Spirit.

We don't even know there is some due to the possibility of single "V".

[Calamitas]

Though we've lost our UB. Sorry, whoever you are.

Wait, why?

Looks like we have a vig though. This could be a pretty quick game.

He inherits the first role, but doesn't inherit Spirit.

We don't even know there is one due to the possibility of single "V" roll.

Fixed

[SpaceAnemone]

Ah, I know this stuff was discussed before (around post #570), but I was kind of too side-tracked to be posting at that point, as my single post that evening shows :-P Did we ever check with faust that the UB can't just inherit the power of the next PR to die instead? I can see the game-mechanic reason for not having the UB take on the restless spirit power, because it doesn't end after death. But in my original reading of the rules, I think I assumed the UB would still stay intact as a UB on the death of a RS, not that they'd become a VT because of it.

If we had a UB in the game at the start, would that UB still inherit the power of the next PR to die, or would they now have been converted to a VT by the RS's flip?

[faust]

If we had a UB in the game at the start, would that UB still inherit the power of the next PR to die, or would they now have been converted to a VT by the RS's flip?

They would have been converted to a VT.

[Eevee]

If the vig claims, will they become an IC (unless counterclaimed)? It's the only killing role as far as I can tell (although it's possible there could be two, so two claim situation wouldn't be so straightforward). Not encouraging anyone to claim just yet, just thinking about the implications.

[Eevee]

We really really really need to hit scum today.

[Calamitas]

If the vig claims, will they become an IC (unless counterclaimed)? It's the only killing role as far as I can tell (although it's possible there could be two, so two claim situation wouldn't be so straightforward). Not encouraging anyone to claim just yet, just thinking about the implications.

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

[Calamitas]

@Faust: Just how much communication with teamlyle is allowed? Are simple patterns (aka "Vote nolynch if you agree, otherwise vote me") fine?

[pacovf]

I think it's better that the vig doesn't claim unless at L-1. Keeps scum on their toes and might make them more likely to use their kills inefficiently. But of course, it's up to the vig.

[J Reggie]

 Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

[Calamitas]

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why lalight?

[LaLight]

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why me?

[teamlyle]

Vote: Calamitas

[faust]

@Faust: Just how much communication with teamlyle is allowed? Are simple patterns (aka "Vote nolynch if you agree, otherwise vote me") fine?

There are no posting restrictions for living players.

[Calamitas]

@Faust: Just how much communication with teamlyle is allowed? Are simple patterns (aka "Vote nolynch if you agree, otherwise vote me") fine?

There are no posting restrictions for living players.

Okay, perfect

[pacovf]

We really really really need to hit scum today.

Ok. Who do you think is scum?

[Calamitas]

As general pattern I would propose the following:

Agreement: Vote nolynch followed by unvote
Disagreement: Vote poster followed by vote no-lynch followed by unvote

Scum-read: Vote scumread followed by unvote (number of repetitions might imply strength of scumread)
Town-read: Vote townread followed by unvote [followed by Vote nolynch followed by unvote] (number of repetitions of part in brackets might imply strength of townread)

I think this kind of pattern would be pretty unambiguous while staying very simple. Utilization by scum might be avoided by opening tabs with votes beforehand to click them in a very short period of time.

[J Reggie]

Lalight's first post is talking about the mafia kill (I assume) which is a scum thing to do.

[Eevee]

As general pattern I would propose the following:

Agreement: Vote nolynch followed by unvote
Disagreement: Vote poster followed by vote no-lynch followed by unvote

Scum-read: Vote scumread followed by unvote (number of repetitions might imply strength of scumread)
Town-read: Vote townread followed by unvote [followed by Vote nolynch followed by unvote] (number of repetitions of part in brackets might imply strength of townread)

I think this kind of pattern would be pretty unambiguous while staying very simple. Utilization by scum might be avoided by opening tabs with votes beforehand to click them in a very short period of time.

I like this.

We really really really need to hit scum today.

Ok. Who do you think is scum?

Some wagon analysis incoming, I started earlier but had to do something, back at it again! Going in, I'm most suspicious of LaLight, just to vocalize where my head is at before I look into it further.

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Calamitas

[LaLight]

Lalight's first post is talking about the mafia kill (I assume) which is a scum thing to do.

Why is it? And if it even is, why'd I do you it? And why i even posted? I'm just really sad seeing gkrieg killed, is all.

Eevee, why me? From where did you all take that?

[pacovf]

Vote: Calamitas

Do you think he is scum? Why?

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Calamitas

Do you think he is scum? Why?

I read Day 1.  Very active with no scumhunting.  I think he thinks that he's being helpful, which is what you try to do when you're scum.  Especially continuing today.

[Calamitas]

Vote: Calamitas

Do you think he is scum? Why?

I read Day 1.  Very active with no scumhunting.  I think he thinks that he's being helpful, which is what you try to do when you're scum.  Especially continuing today.

Do you really think that is alignment indicative?

[Witherweaver]

Yes.

[Eevee]

Silverspawn wagon:

If I'm reading the setup correctly, there can be 0-2 restless spirits, so it's not a counterclaimable role. The downside of lynching teamlyle and being wrong would be smaller, but it's also opportunity cost unless we really think he is most likely to be scum. I think I have a tendency of giving unforced claims a little too much town credit, but this doesn't seem like something scum would want to claim - wouldn't they be very worried about being lynched "just in case?"

I like Vote: silverspawn better, creeping suspicion from earlier, and I think he fits the bill for someone trying to control the game "from the shadows" without putting themselves at risk.

Me starting the wagon.

SA sheeps, no explanation.

*people posting about teamlyle and how to approach his claim*

teamlyle sheeps, no explanation.

I haven't really checked the odds (even though I LOVE calculating odds) because I don't think they are relevant in this scenario. Lynching scum is better than lynching town, period. Failing that, getting information is the best we can do. Lynching town in a way that makes people unaccountable for their vote (because setup/numbers) does not do that.

So we should stop discussing the advantages of lynching a Restless Spirit, because it's detracting from actual scumhunting, and lynch someone else. From the people that currently have a vote on them, my preferred choice is vote: silverspawn, because he is playing the way I would expect him to play as scum: being present without committing himself too much, and voting for people for relatively easy reasons.

I could do Lalight or SA too, I think.

pacovf joins the wagon.

Vote: Pacovf. Slightly OMGUS, slightly me not liking his first post.

"I would only vote for Eevee or Calamitas if it's between that or no-lynch." (Sorry for no quotations)

It's D1! You look into your gut feelings mostly (esp. when there's 12 players) and you should be ready for lynching quite anyone (being town). You haven't explained why Eevee and Calamitas and also this sentence doesn't really make sense. What if they scumslip of anything? Scum's always sure about alignments of people, we can see it the vividest D1.

LaLight follows this, which I don't really get. Having 2 players out of 11 possible in your wouldn't lynch pool is certainly very sensible. If all of town would be ok with lynching anyone, how could we ever lynch scum? Not that we did now, but you got to prefer your scum reads and I don't like LL throwing suspicion at pacovf for this.

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Overall I agree with Calamitas about lynching Teamlyle, but after this post i'm inclined to Vote: Silverspawn because it's just scummy.

It's confusing though, because this is LL's next post.

I don't like Eevee spreading votes. We can come to no lynch this way.

Another very weird finger of suspicion from LaLight. I actively pushed for the lynch candidate I strongly felt was scummier (there was still enough time and people for either lynch, clearly). Of course we know now both targets were town, so I don't know what this means. Like, it feels scummy, but I can't really wrap my head around what would the end game be here, for either alignment.

gkrieg, who had been vocal about not liking the teamlyle lynch, joins the ss wagon here.

Lalight jumps on as well, says we need to consolidate votes ( these are practically back to back posts, 17 hours to the deadline)

Robz agrees with my post about the disadvantages of lynching teamlyle

Calamitas and people argue back and forth, finally Robz puts ss into L-1

So I went back to look for this post, I was wrong. It was LaLight who said something to this effect, not silverspawn. LaLight also said a number of weird, panicky things about Eevee spreading votes, us getting to No Lynch etc, even though we have plenty of time left.

That really struck me as off. LaLight is a really good player who pays close attention. I've only seen him as town, though. Him being paranoid about a deadline that wasn't even looming yet... I read it as scummy because it's so not in keeping with what I've seen from, and I've only seen him as town. Perhaps he's not as good as scum and was trying (badly) to feign townish considerations.

I doubt there's any interest in a lynch here, but LaLight just shot up to the top of my suspicion list.

Robz making the same observations about LL than I have


Here is an interesting thing, 14 hours before the deadline Robz switches away from ss and votes J Reggie. I feel this is quite towny, wouldn't scum be happy to have the silver lynch go through and see us lose a very strong player? We can also probably say that if Robz is scum, J Reggie can't be, because that'd be just suicidal bussing for little reason, right? (J Reggie has just the one Robz vote)

Vote count at this point:
Vote Count 1.6

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (5): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight
Calamitas (1): J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888



Upon seeing this, pacovf votes ss, stating he thought he was already voting (which I guess he should actually have been).

ss comes in, frustrated, a little appealing to emotion-y. Reggie states intent to hammer unless ss claims.


SA, who is voting for ss, comes back and says they don't feel good about lynching ss. Again some calamitas setup arguments, and then SA asks again if there is anyone on to start a new wagon. Not sure how I feel about this, as I really don't see any reason in silver's posts to change one's mind about him. Hard to analyze if this is SA trying to score town credit or actually changing their mind, because they don't present their preferred alternative target.

SA goes back and notices the vote count is mistaken, J Reggie comes in and hammers ss to "solve the confusion". Afterwards (but before the flip of course) WW comes in seeming positive about the silver lynch, whereas mcmc says he hates it.

Not feeling scum on Eevee or pacovf. More on J Reggie and gkrieg. SA and teamlyle are probably town.

silver's final reads.



And that's that.

So, on the record not liking this lynch are mcmc, Calamitas (for setup reasons rather than reads I gathered, though) and SA was having second feelings despite being on the wagon. I didn't realize yesterday or when starting going back just now that this was such a consensus thing, kind of unfortunate actually. I obviously pushed for it pretty hard, but I thought it was not the weakest case for day 1 (obviously wrong though), and my townread on teamlyle made me more eager to push this as teamlyle seemed the other alternative.

I think Robz comes out the towniest, as if he was scum I really see no reason for him to try to derail this. WW's and mcmc's posts after the lynch have been through I think should be taken with a grain of salt, as there were no stakes left (for that day) anymore.

LaLight's jumping back and forth and making erratic statements about it seemed the most opportunistic to me, and Reggie hammering without giving silver a chance to claim was very anti-town (would he do that as scum?), but this seems like a tough wagon to analyze because so few people were against it, and because Calamitas's setup opinions kind of dominated the discussion, and sort of formed the opposite view to lynching silver. I was hoping I'd find more, but it is what it is.

[Eevee]

I think if anything, Calamitas as scum would be more likely to drop it at some point, whereas town with strong conviction would go on just like he did. Why do you think otherwise?

[Witherweaver]

I think if anything, Calamitas as scum would be more likely to drop it at some point, whereas town with strong conviction would go on just like he did. Why do you think otherwise?

Because he thinks he's correct.  At some point it's out of the scope of this game and just arguing.

[LaLight]

eh.

I panick about the deadlines like always actually. End of RMM35 D1 is the brightest example actually. Yeah, I got better till then, but still when there's really a lot of people, 17 hours don't seem very much time to me.

Again, I'm quite lost when there's too much players and I can't keep in mind everyone. Sorry for looking scummy, I don't want you to try to lynch me and lose another town member. Let's find actual scum.

Also, sorry for being quite inactive, IRL stuff is overwhelming me. I will try to.

[SpaceAnemone]

SA sheeps, no explanation.

I gave my reason in a response to silver three posts later, so it's hardly an unexplained vote!

Robz agrees with my post about the disadvantages of lynching teamlyle

I feel like significant parts of Eevee's big post here can be read as buddying Robz!

Then there was this:

We can also probably say that if Robz is scum, J Reggie can't be, because that'd be just suicidal bussing for little reason, right? (J Reggie has just the one Robz vote)

plus
SA asks again if there is anyone on to start a new wagon. Not sure how I feel about this, as I really don't see any reason in silver's posts to change one's mind about him.
[/quote]

So Robz gets a town-vote from you for moving his vote in the run-up to a deadline, but I get suspicion for even talking about moving my own vote?

And no, silver hadn't said anything in the interim, but I'd lapsed a bit behind in my detailed reading of the game, as evidenced by the fact that I didn't find the vote-count mistake till long after it had happened, when I actually got long enough to sit and read through things properly.

I feel from your post that you're kind of skewing your narrative to fit a pre-existing conclusion, which I think deserves some scumpoints.

LaLight's jumping back and forth and making erratic statements about it seemed the most opportunistic to me, and Reggie hammering without giving silver a chance to claim was very anti-town (would he do that as scum?), but this seems like a tough wagon to analyze because so few people were against it, and because Calamitas's setup opinions kind of dominated the discussion, and sort of formed the opposite view to lynching silver. I was hoping I'd find more, but it is what it is.

We may as well credit the people who weren't on the wagon at any significant point, and that was WW and mcmc, plus Calamitas who was just refusing to play with actual reads.

Looking at the eventual wagon, it's kind of interesting that the scum decided to kill an on-wagon person. I mean, for the five still-alive people left, if we were to assume there were two scum on-wagon (which is usually quite a safe assumption), then some of us have a 50-50 chance of picking a scum randomly from the four other still-alive people on that wagon. I'd originally used that to conclude that the scums probably had two people off-wagon and are sitting there laughing at us self-destructing as town, but then I decided it's probably all wifom.

[Witherweaver]

I think space is looking townlike.  Pacofv as well. 

[Robz888]

Looking at the eventual wagon, it's kind of interesting that the scum decided to kill an on-wagon person. I mean, for the five still-alive people left, if we were to assume there were two scum on-wagon (which is usually quite a safe assumption), then some of us have a 50-50 chance of picking a scum randomly from the four other still-alive people on that wagon. I'd originally used that to conclude that the scums probably had two people off-wagon and are sitting there laughing at us self-destructing as town, but then I decided it's probably all wifom.

Yeah, this is always the first thing I do when a new day starts: go back and look at who was on and who was off. Unfortunately, as you eventually realize in this post, usually it doesn't come to much. There are only 4 living players off-wagon, and I'm one of them, so assuming 1-2 people off wagon, I have decent or perhaps even better odds than you do, of identifying scum, if we follow this logic. Two off wagon would mean two out of mcmc, WW, and Calamitas.

But in practice this never seems to work out.

[Witherweaver]

So why is it always the first thing you do?

[Robz888]

Eh, I really do not like the tendency of gkrieg never make it to even D2.

Totally gut feeling but I do not like this post. Think this more often comes from scum. And LL is already one of my top scum reads at this point, for reasons I specified yesterday.

[Robz888]

So why is it always the first thing you do?

Well, because it's easy. The idea of identifying scum this way is really appealing.

[Robz888]

I feel like significant parts of Eevee's big post here can be read as buddying Robz!

Yes, I see that too. Giving me a mild scum read on Eevee, actually.

[Robz888]

So Robz gets a town-vote from you for moving his vote in the run-up to a deadline, but I get suspicion for even talking about moving my own vote?

Well, but I think that makes objective sense. And no, it wasn't right before deadline. Look back, I was around and really trying to get something else going, and even moved my vote with a good amount of time left. If enough people had been around we could have gotten another lynch. I kinda gave up after hours of silence and no one being on.

You "talking" about not feeling good about the Siverspawn lynch at the point when it actually is too late, yeah, that's sort of scummy.

But point taken about Eevee, anyway. Although I suspect your motives.

[Robz888]

Also, this is really neither here nor there at this point, but I feel like raising it anyway: Calamitas, we DIDN'T do what you wanted, and it worked out just as well. Maybe this might persuade you to spend a little less time convincing everyone you are right about setup/math/theories and more time scum!hunting? Because it really did start to derail the end of Day 1 there.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 2.0[/color]
Not voting (10): LaLight, Calamitas, Witherweaver, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, J Reggie, teamlyle, Eevee, mcmcsalot, pacovf.

Just taking a look at who we are dealing with at this point, I'm struck by the fact--an unusual circumstance--that I have virtually no town reads. Everyone seems pretty scummy to me.

I think, contrary to how I felt earlier, J Reggie may be the closest thing to a town read. His play seemed scummy, but now it seems too random and wrong to make a good scum strategy.

I continue to kind of town!read mcmc, but that was based on very early Day 1 stuff and he hasn't said much since, which is a smart thing for him to do if he's actually town. (I do know he's sort of VLA right now, though.)

[Robz888]

So that's where I'm at. Actually, Vote: Eevee, because SA is kind of right about the buddying.

[pacovf]

I continue to kind of town!read mcmc, but that was based on very early Day 1 stuff and he hasn't said much since, which is a smart thing for him to do if he's actually town. (I do know he's sort of VLA right now, though.)

...wouldn't that be the smart thing to do as scum, too?

[pacovf]

Generally agree with the point Eevee made about silver's lynch being too uh "consensual" to get much info out of it. There was no real alternative, aside from the theory-talk motivated teamlyle lynch. It's unfortunate, but we can't go back anymore, we just have less info than we normally would going into D2. On the other hand, we have teamlyle's flip too, I guess.

[LaLight]

I'll talk about reads a little after when i will get a computer, but for now Robz is the strongest of townreads of mine.

[LaLight]

Maybe even the only one actually. Reasons.

[Calamitas]

Also, this is really neither here nor there at this point, but I feel like raising it anyway: Calamitas, we DIDN'T do what you wanted, and it worked out just as well. Maybe this might persuade you to spend a little less time convincing everyone you are right about setup/math/theories and more time scum!hunting? Because it really did start to derail the end of Day 1 there.

Why should that persuade me? The prior probability of having a vig wasn't that high so we couldn't count on it. And without the vig this would have been way worse than a teamlyle lynch.

But anyways, let's not speak about this further; teamlyle is dead and the issue is settled.

[Robz888]

I continue to kind of town!read mcmc, but that was based on very early Day 1 stuff and he hasn't said much since, which is a smart thing for him to do if he's actually town. (I do know he's sort of VLA right now, though.)

...wouldn't that be the smart thing to do as scum, too?

Thanks for the catch the bolded bit was a TYPO, I meant to say that it would be the smart thing for him to do as scum. So yes, I agree with your point.

[Witherweaver]

I continue to kind of town!read mcmc, but that was based on very early Day 1 stuff and he hasn't said much since, which is a smart thing for him to do if he's actually town. (I do know he's sort of VLA right now, though.)

...wouldn't that be the smart thing to do as scum, too?

Thanks for the catch the bolded bit was a TYPO, I meant to say that it would be the smart thing for him to do as scum. So yes, I agree with your point.

Scumslip!

[Eevee]

@SA

I missed the post where you gave your reasons later, my bad.

I think there is a difference between trying to start an alternative wagon like Robz did, and lamenting about the current lynch but staying on the wagon like you did. To me, Robz's thing seems like something where his actions would not make sense for someone who is scum and about to see a favorable lynch for them, whereas what you did felt like something that scum could easily say, because they of course know all the alignments and know it's a bad lynch for town. Of course it also makes sense that you would behave the same way when town and having second feelings.

[Eevee]

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.

[Robz888]

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.

It's just that by Day 2, a lot of the time I find that people are just wildly suspicious of me no matter what I do. So you're treating me like town, either because you have a sincere and really solid (and actually correct as it turns out) read on me, or because you're scum and getting on my good side is (in your view) the right strategy.

And I have to try and figure out which of these things is more likely for you. Definitely could be the first thing, but do you see why I would worry it's the second?

[SpaceAnemone]

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.

[Witherweaver]

This is me rolling my eyes.

[Robz888]

This is me rolling my eyes.

+1

[Calamitas]

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.

Good to hear someone else was also implementing it

[SpaceAnemone]

Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.

Good to hear someone else was also implementing it

I'd implemented asher9++ before, so it wasn't much of a tweak. It took me till tonight to get round to sorting out the last little corner I'd asked about before the game started, though, since I've been really busy lately.

Anyway, now you've got company in the land of obsessively theoretical people, how about you come and join reads-land too?

[SpaceAnemone]

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space Count

LL (1): JR
Calamitas (2): teamlyle, WW
Eevee (2): Robz, Space
Not voting (5): LL, Calamitas, Eevee, mcmc, paco

[pacovf]

PPE 3

Ugh, I started rereading, and I realized that there is basically no information to be gotten from teamlyle's wagon. For all I know, scum could be averse to lynching a Restless Spirit. I was willing to give Robz and WW town points for overall opposing the lynch before the whole theory talk started, but then again, maybe they are scum that were trying to get someone else than a Restless Spirit lynched... Man, teamlyle, why did you have to claim so early...

mcmc comes out as being all over the place, that might be towny? I think?

I just can't see Calamitas not being town right now. Especially his initial reaction to teamlyle's claim.

Mild townread on Robz for trying to start wagons on people other than teamlyle or silver (WW, J Reggie). Feels like too much work for scum when things are alreading going your way.

Lalight... is also all over the place, in such an over the top way... that feels somewhat towny too? Gah. On the other hand, it felt like he sort of was on top of the game? Has he ever rolled scum before?

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. He said he wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Eevee has been present, but not leading the game as much as I remember him in the past.

J Reggie, I have no recollection of. But would he have hammered silver so recklessly as scum? When Robz had already offered to do it?

witherweaver feels like town!witherweaver.

IIRC, Eevee was the first one to build a case on silverspawn. He did it after teamlyle's claim. But he became fairly silent as the end of day approached.

I think that's everyone, which means:

all-over-the-place: Lalight, mcmc
not very present: JReggie, WW
Calamitas: Calamitas
playing it safe: SA (very), Eevee (somewhat)
can't read: Robz

on-wagon:  Eevee, (pacovf), SpaceAnemone, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie [Robz]

ever-voted for gkrieg: ww, JReggie (both semi-RVS)
ever-voted for teamlyle: pacovf, Robz, /claim/ Lalight, Calamitas, mcmc

Soooooo... eh, I guess I don't want to lynch Calamitas or WW, would appreciate if somebody told me how to read Lalight or mcmc. I doubt mcmc/Robz, JReggie/Robz or SA/Calamitas are scum at the same time. Lalight is clearly the one that looks worst from wagon analysis, but again, no idea what to deduce from the playstyle. I have a feeling he wouldn't be so panicky as scum when both of the leading lynches are town? Unless the argument was that he was trying to fake town!concern?

[pacovf]

SA, you were clearly following along closely, yet you only started showing real concern over the available lynches at the very, very end. Why?

[pacovf]

Also,

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

can you point out what, exactly, you are referring to, here?

[pacovf]

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. They said he wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Sorry, fixed.

[pacovf]

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why do you think this?

Also, can we get a readlist from you?

[SpaceAnemone]

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

can you point out what, exactly, you are referring to, here?

Re-reading silver had surprised me with how much he's pointing at Eevee, because I hadn't noticed it in amongst all the Calamitas stuff the first time through. Post #508 says that while Eevee isn't a scumread, he'd be an okay lynch. Then at #518 he's got a more emphatic-sounding vote, though again, it's kind of mixed up in all the Calamitas guff. Then at #535 Eevee posts a huge read on silver with a shouty vote at the end. I mean, it's likely he'd be noticing silver's comments more than the rest of us since it's about himself, but still, that's a big case with not a lot holding it up, and then a few posts later gkrieg and LL are also on the wagon.

Oh, and you said I was following the game closely, but the whole time around #567 I was running around like a headless chicken with guests and cakes to bake and my friend's kid to watch and a weekend full of festive choral commitments, so my attention to the game at that crucial point was way lower than I'd liked :-( If I'd been keeping up properly, there's no way I'd have missed the vote-counting error!

[SpaceAnemone]

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. They said they wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Sorry, fixed.

Even more fixed :-)

[J Reggie]

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why do you think this?

Also, can we get a readlist from you?

I've explained my original reason for voting for lalight. And it's bad for a vig to kill someone who everyone thinks is town instead of searching for scum.

[J Reggie]

I hope I can do a reads list today.

[pacovf]

I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

can you point out what, exactly, you are referring to, here?

Re-reading silver had surprised me with how much he's pointing at Eevee, because I hadn't noticed it in amongst all the Calamitas stuff the first time through. Post #508 says that while Eevee isn't a scumread, he'd be an okay lynch. Then at #518 he's got a more emphatic-sounding vote, though again, it's kind of mixed up in all the Calamitas guff. Then at #535 Eevee posts a huge read on silver with a shouty vote at the end. I mean, it's likely he'd be noticing silver's comments more than the rest of us since it's about himself, but still, that's a big case with not a lot holding it up, and then a few posts later gkrieg and LL are also on the wagon.

Oh, and you said I was following the game closely, but the whole time around #567 I was running around like a headless chicken with guests and cakes to bake and my friend's kid to watch and a weekend full of festive choral commitments, so my attention to the game at that crucial point was way lower than I'd liked :-( If I'd been keeping up properly, there's no way I'd have missed the vote-counting error!

So basically you are voting for Eevee because he OMGUSed silver, is what you are saying?

If that is true, you could have picked up on it yesterday. It happened before your party.

Both SA and Lalight are following the game very closely, but I do not know what to think of it. Lalight has been "panicky", SA hasn't done much besides contribute to the theory talk, and do a half-hearted attempt at changing silver's lynch at the end. They said they wanted to lynch Calamitas, though, so hm.

Sorry, fixed.

Even more fixed :-)

...in my defense, this would be a lot easier in my native language.

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why do you think this?

Also, can we get a readlist from you?

I've explained my original reason for voting for lalight. And it's bad for a vig to kill someone who everyone thinks is town instead of searching for scum.

Two questions:

Are you encouraging the vig to shoot around with abandon?

Are you aware that your (posted) reason to vote for Lalight is probably the flimsiest I've seen in a long while?

[Witherweaver]

Vig should not have done that. Also, vote: lalight.

Why do you think this?

Also, can we get a readlist from you?

I've explained my original reason for voting for lalight. And it's bad for a vig to kill someone who everyone thinks is town instead of searching for scum.

Vig shots early are not that great.  Shooting teamlyle is a goodish move here because it prevents us from wasting a day not scumhunting and possibly wasting a lynch.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.1

LaLight (1): J Reggie
Calamitas (2): teamlyle, Witherweaver
Eevee (2): Robz888, SpaceAnemone

Not voting (5): LaLight, Calamitas, Eevee, mcmcsalot, pacovf

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time.

[Witherweaver]

La di da

Vote: Eevee

[LaLight]

La di da

Vote: Eevee

you're doing that again. vote: WW

[Witherweaver]

People I would lynch today: Calamitas, J Reggie, Eevee.

People I (probably) wouldn't lynch today:  Space, Pacovf, McMc (??)

People I would also lynch today: everyone else

[Robz888]

La di da

Vote: Eevee

you're doing that again. vote: WW

Probably my biggest point of confusion in this game is WW. I do NOT remember him being, uh, silly, and offering little of substance.

I guess this gives me a town read on him, since I mostly remember him as scum and being quite calculated.

[Eevee]

Hey, mini VLA, haven't been reading and might not get to before tomorrow.

[Robz888]

This game has three modes: Eevee receiving and rebutting suspicion, Calamitas talking us to death about the setup, and long silence.

[pacovf]

This game has three modes: Eevee receiving and rebutting suspicion, Calamitas talking us to death about the setup, and long silence.

Indeed! I wish SA or J Reggie would answer my questions.

[pacovf]

Also, I am starting a V/LA (mostly LA) this Friday afternoon, that will last anywhere from 1 to 3 days, so it would be nice if people started contributing before then.

Like, if you are town, what is your excuse for not being here trying to produce content? Especially after the underwhelming D1 we've had?

[pacovf]

Hell, vote: J Reggie, let's give people some motivation.

[SpaceAnemone]

This game has three modes: Eevee receiving and rebutting suspicion, Calamitas talking us to death about the setup, and long silence.

Indeed! I wish SA or J Reggie would answer my questions.

Sorry.. I was on trains for many hours today, with too flakey a data connection to post anything :-( Now I'm up in Edinburgh, and I should be much less frantically busy now that I'm at the other end of the country to my work and social circles :-)

[SpaceAnemone]

So basically you are voting for Eevee because he OMGUSed silver, is what you are saying?

It's not borrowed OMGUS, but I think it's too early in the game (given yesterday's wash-out) for me to build much of a case. Let's start by explaining where my thinking came from, then I'll see whether I can gather things together into something case-shaped.

Relatively early in D1, I'd been town-reading Eevee: he's so nice, so it's hard not to! Then I re-read him in relation to the Eevee-mcmc clash. I still had an omgus vote on mcmc, though I'd developed a slight scum feeling on him as the game progressed a little. Over the course of that re-read, my town-read on Eevee dropped, my scum-read on mcmc diminished. The things mcmc had pointed out about Eevee's behaviour sensitized me a bit to a couple of things. So I was really second-guessing myself at the time on whether or not to find his "everyone agrees with me" attitude manipulative or just generally convivial. That part in particular came from mcmc's comments at #248.

There were several things I wasn't comfortable with in isolation, but during D1, and before the silver flip, it hadn't occurred to me to let them join up as a suspicion. There was the early suggestion of a blanket ban on theory. Now, I've never seen theory talk derail everything as much as it did here D1, so I can see why we don't want that to keep happening. But people being aware of the setup priors and mentioning possible roles/combinations doesn't seem anti-town at all. There's something about the tone of #197 doesn't feel quite right. Too quick to volunteer that he's town and build a big contrast, maybe?

There are a few places where he says or implies not-quite-true things, and then backs down when they're pointed out, like at #212/#220. Also at #249 where he asserts that this game is likely to have more PRs than in Covert Affairs (which is not true), which he backs down at #259 when challenged. There's a comment at #239 where gkrieg asks about the validity of the direction it was going in in the very next post. #253 is very self-aware, and awareness of scum meta is kind of scummy. #309 is quite defensive considering I hadn't voted him at all.

I mean, these are mostly all vague little things, and all from before the silver wagon, but I wasn't paying the right sort of attention at the time. So yeah, I think what I've got here is a suspicion rather than a case, but I'm happy voting for him at the moment.

...in my defense, this would be a lot easier in my native language.

I appreciate that you noticed it :-)

[pacovf]

This all makes sense, I think.

Another question, slightly off-topic: how would you say your game has evolved since Newbie Mafia 8?

[Eevee]

Back!

So basically you are voting for Eevee because he OMGUSed silver, is what you are saying?

It's not borrowed OMGUS, but I think it's too early in the game (given yesterday's wash-out) for me to build much of a case. Let's start by explaining where my thinking came from, then I'll see whether I can gather things together into something case-shaped.

Relatively early in D1, I'd been town-reading Eevee: he's so nice, so it's hard not to! Then I re-read him in relation to the Eevee-mcmc clash. I still had an omgus vote on mcmc, though I'd developed a slight scum feeling on him as the game progressed a little. Over the course of that re-read, my town-read on Eevee dropped, my scum-read on mcmc diminished. The things mcmc had pointed out about Eevee's behaviour sensitized me a bit to a couple of things. So I was really second-guessing myself at the time on whether or not to find his "everyone agrees with me" attitude manipulative or just generally convivial. That part in particular came from mcmc's comments at #248.

There were several things I wasn't comfortable with in isolation, but during D1, and before the silver flip, it hadn't occurred to me to let them join up as a suspicion. There was the early suggestion of a blanket ban on theory. Now, I've never seen theory talk derail everything as much as it did here D1, so I can see why we don't want that to keep happening. But people being aware of the setup priors and mentioning possible roles/combinations doesn't seem anti-town at all. There's something about the tone of #197 doesn't feel quite right. Too quick to volunteer that he's town and build a big contrast, maybe?

There are a few places where he says or implies not-quite-true things, and then backs down when they're pointed out, like at #212/#220. Also at #249 where he asserts that this game is likely to have more PRs than in Covert Affairs (which is not true), which he backs down at #259 when challenged. There's a comment at #239 where gkrieg asks about the validity of the direction it was going in in the very next post. #253 is very self-aware, and awareness of scum meta is kind of scummy. #309 is quite defensive considering I hadn't voted him at all.

I mean, these are mostly all vague little things, and all from before the silver wagon, but I wasn't paying the right sort of attention at the time. So yeah, I think what I've got here is a suspicion rather than a case, but I'm happy voting for him at the moment.

...in my defense, this would be a lot easier in my native language.

I appreciate that you noticed it :-)

Should I answer these points? Serious question, it's quite a bit of work for both of us to quote things back and forth - would it be worth it? I don't think you are mischaracterizing me or anything like that. Changing my mind stuff I think is a new point at least - I don't quite see why you think that's scummy? I'm putting my thoughts out there, of course very happy to change my mind when I was wrong. Fwiw, I don't think anyone's opinions on theory differ when they are scum or town. Always irks me when someone gets suspected for being wrong about theory - more so if it's me! ( )

[Eevee]

I'm going up north for christmas, so this is my last day with computer access. Plenty and plenty of time to phone post though, it's an 800 mile drive (and I can't drive so my only responsibility is to spot the reindeer).

I'll try to get some rereads in today, because those are difficult to to from phone.

[Eevee]

I think in the last game where I was mafia, I was suspected way less than I would have expected because I thought I played scummy. Now I'm town, and at first I was so relieved because it would be much less stressful, but now I'm suspected way more than I was, and it kind of keeps coming and I don't know what to do.

Of course I lead the charge in yesterday's mislynch, so I guess it's warranted and I should have known. I really really believed in the case, though. I think scum had it kind of easy with calamitas dominating the discussion, me leading a mislynch wagon and almost every townie agreeing it was a good idea (with teamlyle being the alternative, also town-aligned target).

Scum could really be in the shadows here, they haven't really had to lead us astray (unless calamitas is scum), because we've done it to ourselves in spades.

[SpaceAnemone]

This all makes sense, I think.

Another question, slightly off-topic: how would you say your game has evolved since Newbie Mafia 8?

Hmm.. It's an odd question. NM8 was about my 4th game, I think, and I was playing up my newbie innocence to a big degree to score easy town-points, so it's not a great baseline if you're asking how my game has developed overall. I've been trying to be more aware of the awkward things I do (like self-conscious segues) that get me easily scum-read. In Covert Affairs, Robz came out with "Summaries are scummaries" in response to my reads list, and I rather took that to heart, so I probably post fewer lists than I used to. Ironically, Robz turned out to be scum there :-( The things I notice and make personal notes on in a text buffer alongside the game have probably changed a bit, too, including things like voting patterns, because being scum made me realise how exposed it feels to join a wagon when you already know the person is innocent.

I'm still just as stubborn in my belief that the use of smilies isn't necessarily scummy, though :-)

Does that answer your question?

[Eevee]

I would have read SA as town in M89 (had I not been scum with them), but I do think they look somewhat more.. relaxed here? Might be a product of this game being way less active, but I would almost say they are leading the town here, whereas in that game they were definitely more of a hang-back presence. Feels towny, especially because their scumhunting feels natural, asking probing questions and pointing things out rather than forcing narratives and twisting things.

[pacovf]

This all makes sense, I think.

Another question, slightly off-topic: how would you say your game has evolved since Newbie Mafia 8?

Hmm.. It's an odd question. NM8 was about my 4th game, I think, and I was playing up my newbie innocence to a big degree to score easy town-points, so it's not a great baseline if you're asking how my game has developed overall. I've been trying to be more aware of the awkward things I do (like self-conscious segues) that get me easily scum-read. In Covert Affairs, Robz came out with "Summaries are scummaries" in response to my reads list, and I rather took that to heart, so I probably post fewer lists than I used to. Ironically, Robz turned out to be scum there :-( The things I notice and make personal notes on in a text buffer alongside the game have probably changed a bit, too, including things like voting patterns, because being scum made me realise how exposed it feels to join a wagon when you already know the person is innocent.

I'm still just as stubborn in my belief that the use of smilies isn't necessarily scummy, though :-)

Does that answer your question?

Yes, thanks.

What's up with the glacial pace of this game? Is it because the holidays are around the corner? Morose town is losing town! I understand that mcmc is in his honeymoon (and I assume his priorities point towards the new partner [terrible choice!]), but like that is only one person. It's gotten to the point that I wouldn't actually mind having a lurker lynch today. So yeah, J Reggie. Eevee would be my second choice, then Lalight, but I don't want J Reggie to get away with so little output. Calamitas and WW are also pretty low in fontent, but well I think they are town. It would be mighty nice if they came in and started "leading" the way a bit!

[pacovf]

Well, WW has posted a brief read list, but it's sad that is supposed to be enough in this game. Robz is present, but not really generating as much content as his post count would suggest.

[Robz888]

I'm V/LA for 24 hrs

[Calamitas]

re-read in order tomorrow, will have plenty of time during the weekend. Sorry for being so inactive the past few days

[schadd]

Vote Count 2.2

LaLight (1): J Reggie
Calamitas (1): teamlyle
Eevee (3): Robz888, SpaceAnemone, Witherweaver
Witherweaver (1): Lalight 
J Reggie (1): pacovf

Not voting (3): Calamitas, Eevee, mcmcsalot,
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time.

[Eevee]

Anyone here?

Why aren't we posting!

[pacovf]

I am waiting for J Reggie to, I don't know, acknowledge that there is a game going on? I feel very very alone in this game at the moment.

[pacovf]

To be fair, we do have 7 days to deadline, but silence only breeds more silence. Which clearly only benefits town.

Can you remind me where your reads are at, Eevee?

[SpaceAnemone]

Anyone here?

Why aren't we posting!

I'm here! Last I heard from LaLight (a few hours ago) he was back in hospital awaiting an operation :-( So even if he's being scummy and lurky, he's getting a temporary pass from me.

Perhaps if other lurky-looking people want an ice-breaker to ease themselves back into the conversation (Calamitas, JR, Robz and any other mostly-VLA people!), we can fill the thread with a bit of LaLight-wellwishing? Then scum-hunting, obviously :-)

[pacovf]

Well, damn. Hope the operation goes well...

By the way, teamlyle, are you still following along? If you are, please unvote and vote again.

[teamlyle]

unvote

[teamlyle]

Vote: Calamitas

[pacovf]

ok, thanks

[LaLight]

Well, i'm here still here and still waiting for operation (they can't say for sure ig it will do that at all).

Anyway no need to worry at all, nothing dangerous with me but i may be partly vla, though i have plenties of time due to the dact that I'm lying 24/7 and don't habe christmas, so wait for reads from me

[LaLight]

Sorry for typos also, phone posting

[mcmcsalot]

So Robz gets a town-vote from you for moving his vote in the run-up to a deadline, but I get suspicion for even talking about moving my own vote?

Well, but I think that makes objective sense. And no, it wasn't right before deadline. Look back, I was around and really trying to get something else going, and even moved my vote with a good amount of time left. If enough people had been around we could have gotten another lynch. I kinda gave up after hours of silence and no one being on.

You "talking" about not feeling good about the Siverspawn lynch at the point when it actually is too late, yeah, that's sort of scummy.

But point taken about Eevee, anyway. Although I suspect your motives.

I think the biggest point here is that eevee's post are continually off by just a bit here or there. I don't think its scummy that spaceanemonie didnt like the lynch, I think its towny from both of you.

[mcmcsalot]

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.

It's just that by Day 2, a lot of the time I find that people are just wildly suspicious of me no matter what I do. So you're treating me like town, either because you have a sincere and really solid (and actually correct as it turns out) read on me, or because you're scum and getting on my good side is (in your view) the right strategy.

And I have to try and figure out which of these things is more likely for you. Definitely could be the first thing, but do you see why I would worry it's the second?

So you are playing very towny. Like with how much of a town read I have on you, I think eevee as towny would also have a town read on you but i think eevee is scum.

vote:eevee

[mcmcsalot]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Multiple people here have mentioned that the wagon on silver felt odd, like almost assumed/forced. I think there is more scum on wagon then normal. With the low activity and eevee taking a large amount of the suspicion and scum hunting I think scum feels safe having multiple on wagon. I was worried when i saw the amount of people "worried about the deadline" its scums defense for being on wagon with little reason. 

[mcmcsalot]

So I am having a hard time putting together a whole team that makes sense.

I have strong scum reads on Eevee and Lalight and strong town reads on robs and spaceanemonie.

That leaves witherweaver and cal off wagon and paco and jreggie on wagon. I think my best guess for the other scum based on reads is reggie but that would put all three scum on wagon...

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

This is a really really scummy hammer, I thought it then and I think it now.

[J Reggie]

It's OK now, I'm here!

Time to get started on a reads list. It might not be that great but maybe it'll give me some insights.

[Robz888]

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

This is a really really scummy hammer, I thought it then and I think it now.

It is. It's SO scummy that it's almost just a straightforwardly bad play. Is the scum team THAT worried about what silverspawn might say that it was worth hammering him in such incriminating fashion? If J Reggie is scum he's just playing an absolutely abysmal scum game (no offense intended!). So the question becomes, is that possible? Or is he just sort of scummy-seeming town?

[Robz888]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Multiple people here have mentioned that the wagon on silver felt odd, like almost assumed/forced. I think there is more scum on wagon then normal. With the low activity and eevee taking a large amount of the suspicion and scum hunting I think scum feels safe having multiple on wagon. I was worried when i saw the amount of people "worried about the deadline" its scums defense for being on wagon with little reason.

Looking at it again, if you and I are pretty confident in each other not being scum, and we think there's one scum off wagon, we have a 50% chance. It's WW or Calamitas. I guess I'm not actually sure where I lean there, though. I would have said WW for sure, but man Calamitas is not doing anything but theory talk.

[J Reggie]

LaLight a few things have pointed to scum!lalight, such as the comment about gkrieg.

Calamitas basically only talks about theory.  Would probably do that as town, but would be more likely to do it as scum. Especially if it helps us get a mislynch through.

Witherweaver unhelpful as usual. Probably town though.

Robz888 is sneaky. I don't have as strong a scum read on him as I did.

SpaceAnemone very helpful as usual. I want to think they're town.

Eevee led the charge on ss. A scum team with Eevee and calamitas would be very good play, but I don't know if they're bold enough to do that. What do people think?

mcmcsalot is scumreading me now . Not sure what to think

pacovf one of the only people pushing the game forward. Let's keep him.


So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

[J Reggie]

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

This is a really really scummy hammer, I thought it then and I think it now.

It is. It's SO scummy that it's almost just a straightforwardly bad play. Is the scum team THAT worried about what silverspawn might say that it was worth hammering him in such incriminating fashion? If J Reggie is scum he's just playing an absolutely abysmal scum game (no offense intended!). So the question becomes, is that possible? Or is he just sort of scummy-seeming town?

No offense taken, since I'm not scum. I really wanted to hammer ss though. Sorry he was town, but there wasn't much of another option at that point.

[mcmcsalot]

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

This is a really really scummy hammer, I thought it then and I think it now.

It is. It's SO scummy that it's almost just a straightforwardly bad play. Is the scum team THAT worried about what silverspawn might say that it was worth hammering him in such incriminating fashion? If J Reggie is scum he's just playing an absolutely abysmal scum game (no offense intended!). So the question becomes, is that possible? Or is he just sort of scummy-seeming town?

Thats what I thought at first but I think the scum team was afraid that we weren't going to lynch silver. I think more time may have lead to a successful defense of silver which would really hurt the scum team. Also I dislike the its such a bad move it can't be scummy thing, the move doesn't make any more sense from a town perspective. It was a bad bad move and it helped the scum team a lot and there isn't a reasonable explanation, isn't that kind of the definition of scummy...

[mcmcsalot]

Here, I'll solve the vote count confusion. vote: Silverspawn

This is a really really scummy hammer, I thought it then and I think it now.

It is. It's SO scummy that it's almost just a straightforwardly bad play. Is the scum team THAT worried about what silverspawn might say that it was worth hammering him in such incriminating fashion? If J Reggie is scum he's just playing an absolutely abysmal scum game (no offense intended!). So the question becomes, is that possible? Or is he just sort of scummy-seeming town?

No offense taken, since I'm not scum. I really wanted to hammer ss though. Sorry he was town, but there wasn't much of another option at that point.

not another option, deadline coming soon, it was going to happen eventually, things scum says

[Witherweaver]

Checking in.  I'm on vacation for the holidays but I'm not really going anywhere.  Will put time in this game, hopefully over the weekend.

We have a while before deadline, right?

[Robz888]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

[J Reggie]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

Sorry, bit it was just coincidence. The thing I am guilty of is being inactive. I haven't had a chance to catch up for a few days, and I finally got a chance, caught up, and voted. In fact, most of the suspicion on me was in my ppes after that big post. So no, if I am scum, you haven't found me for the right reasons.

[mcmcsalot]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

I agree, I am happy to switch from eevee to jreggie. It also helps that I think its likely that vote he made is against his scum partner in an attempt to be early on a scum lynch and turn that into some town cred.

[LaLight]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

Having Robz as the highest townread and agreeing on obv!scumminess vote: jreggie. Also i agree woth Eevee being scum and the third partner is either mcmc or Pacovf.

[J Reggie]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

I agree, I am happy to switch from eevee to jreggie. It also helps that I think its likely that vote he made is against his scum partner in an attempt to be early on a scum lynch and turn that into some town cred.

If you think Eevee and I are both scum, lunch Eevee first. If you lynch me first, scum will have more power over the thread to direct away from an Eevee lynch. Even if you lynch Eevee and then me, if Eevee flips scum at least you'll have gotten one scum.

[J Reggie]

As soon as I show up again, I get a wagon. Great way to convince people not to lurk.

[pacovf]

I am travelling today, so my access to the game is going to be spotty at best for a while. For the time being, I am happy to keep my vote where it is, but we still have a lot of time, try not to derphammer please.

[J Reggie]

As soon as I show up again, I get a wagon. Great way to convince people not to lurk.

Sorry, that was rude.

[mcmcsalot]

LaLight a few things have pointed to scum!lalight, such as the comment about gkrieg.

Calamitas basically only talks about theory.  Would probably do that as town, but would be more likely to do it as scum. Especially if it helps us get a mislynch through.

Eevee led the charge on ss. A scum team with Eevee and calamitas would be very good play, but I don't know if they're bold enough to do that. What do people think?

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

So I'm curious about this Reggie? I want to not have confirmation bias, if you are town you need anything to convince me. Why do you think if eevee and cal are scum they are being bold? I actually have a theory on this but I'm curious to hear your take more in depth.

[mcmcsalot]

Lalaight why do you think me or paco are the third scum with eevee and jreggie?

[LaLight]

Lalaight why do you think me or paco are the third scum with eevee and jreggie?

Well, sorry for no quoting (phone) but tou were bussing Eevee and buddying Robz half of the game. If Eevee flips scum, it's hundreds town points for you. If jreggie flips scum, more town points and you will lynch town one by one.

Pacovf is kinda acti-lurking. I was doing exactly the same, being scum in m86, pushing the game forward without any constructiveness.

[Calamitas]

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

[mcmcsalot]

@lalight (also on phone and quotes are hard)

I can understand that reasoning for me being scum, I can defend by saying it would be too dangerous as scum to actively push for the lynch of both your teammates this early on.

As for your thoughts on paco I think his reads posts and questions are all actively helping push the thread along.

[Robz888]

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

This is also a "quick, get distracted!" post. Like, okay, I understand what you're saying obviously, this buddying is bad if one or both of us is scum, but you're not saying that. You're not saying, this is bad because they are a scum team, or this is bad because you think I'm getting fooled by my brother, or it's bad because it's the other way around. You're just saying, this is not good, but not providing the reason. Liek the J Reggie thing I pointed out, this is something that comes from scum. You forgot to supply the reason we should actually be freaked about here, because you know we're both actually town.

I think scum may be screwing up this game. Calamitas is the off wagon scum, J Reggie and X the on-wagon scum? (Where X is Eevee, maybe?) Could it be that easy?

[mcmcsalot]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

[Robz888]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

Good catch. Maybe LL for third?

[mcmcsalot]

@robz I actually think so. I guess I'll just say it now because I don't think jreggie is going to answer soon.

Jreggie mentioned if eevee and cal are scum they are playing a good game but it's bold. What struck me about this was I actually think cal and eevee have avoided toalking to each other quite a bit.

It goes back to that feeling of now that we have had a day and a half of discussion who isn't talking to each other and the people that fit that description to me are eevee and cal.

[Robz888]

Although I'm probably getting way ahead of myself. Too early to call teams. Need to lynch a scum.

I now think J Reggie and Calamitas are scummier than Eevee, because of the distracting thing.

[Robz888]

Jreggie mentioned if eevee and cal are scum they are playing a good game but it's bold. What struck me about this was I actually think cal and eevee have avoided toalking to each other quite a bit.

Interesting, hadn't noticed that.

[Robz888]

Mcmc, well who is our most sure thing, then? Calamitas?

[mcmcsalot]

Although I'm probably getting way ahead of myself. Too early to call teams. Need to lynch a scum.

I now think J Reggie and Calamitas are scummier than Eevee, because of the distracting thing.

I agree, also if it's lalight, eevee, and jreggie were all on the wagon, I think highly unlikely

[mcmcsalot]

Mcmc, well who is our most sure thing, then? Calamitas?

I think lynching on wagon is better. I think they definitely had two on wagon so 2/5 is better than 1/3

[mcmcsalot]

I think jreggie is the best bet, I would love withereavers thoughts on what we've talked about as well as eevee.

[LaLight]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

Well, I didn't believe the claim 100%, i was thinking that he's either scum or actual restless spirit so lynching would be profitable.

[LaLight]

I'm not the third. Or first. Or second. I think you should look into each other, esp. Robz.

[Robz888]

I'm not the third. Or first. Or second. I think you should look into each other, esp. Robz.

You mean that I, especially, should look into mcmc? Or mcmc, especially should look into me?

[LaLight]

I'm not the third. Or first. Or second. I think you should look into each other, esp. Robz.

You mean that I, especially, should look into mcmc? Or mcmc, especially should look into me?

You, into him.

[Robz888]

I'm not the third. Or first. Or second. I think you should look into each other, esp. Robz.

You mean that I, especially, should look into mcmc? Or mcmc, especially should look into me?

You, into him.

Sure, I'll keep that in mind. The big thing is, in my recollection, scumhunting this hard is a town tell for mcmc. And, well, it's a strong hunch I have here, he's like the one person I read well, or one of the people I read best, I guess.

[pacovf]

I tend to agree that coming back into the game and setting it on fire the way mcmc just did is a town tell. It could technically be that both mcmc and Robz are scum acting for massive towncred so that they get to lead the game, but I think that is just paranoia because of the ultra-high level of buddying we are looking at here, which I assume feels weird to anyone outside the bro pair.

That being said, the comment about Calamitas and his post on the buddying is actually fairly convincing. My town read on Calamitas is decreasing.

[J Reggie]

@robz I actually think so. I guess I'll just say it now because I don't think jreggie is going to answer soon.

Jreggie mentioned if eevee and cal are scum they are playing a good game but it's bold. What struck me about this was I actually think cal and eevee have avoided toalking to each other quite a bit.

It goes back to that feeling of now that we have had a day and a half of discussion who isn't talking to each other and the people that fit that description to me are eevee and cal.

I actually hadn't noticed that. That strengthens my scumread on both of them. Presenting a flashy difference of opinions without personally clashing that much, that's something scum wants to do. Will definitely lynch either of them.

[Eevee]

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

This is a very good point. Reminds me of Robz and Galzria wayy back when in that one game ages back, modern community maybe? One was scum then. Also me and Galzria in Ozle's (let's see if mentioning him still summons him) first game (Galzria was scum then, I totally trusted him, and we lost).

I guess what i'm saying is that this level of mutual trust is much more likely if one of them is scum. *' reading both of them as town but robz more so, but also think if one is fooling the other, 85/ more likely to be robz.

I don't advocate lunching either today, more like a reminder for both of them that i feel these super mutual things don't usually end well for town in my experience.

[Eevee]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

Good catch. Maybe LL for third?

I like LL for scum, but i think this is weak. i maintain: just look at how calamitas made 100 posts day 1 about how we should lynch teamlyle even if we think he is town - is that a claim
scum just wants to make unprovoked? when has an early unprovoked claim of any role happened early day 1? i think with this exact claim it's reasonable to trust it as a first instinct, especially when coming from a newer player who seemed excited to play. i got to know teamlyle during survivor a little bit and that might make it different for me, but to me it was one of the townier claims i've ever seen day one - fits how he is as town perfectly, not the kind of risk i'd see him taking as scum.


Also too early to call scum teams before we've nailed one. I think scum feasts on that, those theories are never correct and it's easier for scum to manipulate town from them since they can just run with the parts that are incorrect. I like trying to build bridges like "if xxx is this, then yyy is probably that" (if reggie is scum, i think robz is way less likely to be scum for example", but i think that looking for connections when the root might be wrong is just counterproductive

[Eevee]

Mcmc, well who is our most sure thing, then? Calamitas?

I think lynching on wagon is better. I think they definitely had two on wagon so 2/5 is better than 1/3

Why do you think it was a particularly scum-driven lynch? To me, and i didn't see this until the reread, it was more like a everyone is on board lynch - there was no one defending silver (not even himself). isnt that the exact scenario where scum could afford to hang back and not join?

[Eevee]

I'm not the third. Or first. Or second. I think you should look into each other, esp. Robz.

You mean that I, especially, should look into mcmc? Or mcmc, especially should look into me?

You, into him.

Sure, I'll keep that in mind. The big thing is, in my recollection, scumhunting this hard is a town tell for mcmc. And, well, it's a strong hunch I have here, he's like the one person I read well, or one of the people I read best, I guess.

I agree hard scumhunting is a towntell for mcmc, reading him more and more as town
the more those efforts are targeted to also other people than me.

[Eevee]

@robz I actually think so. I guess I'll just say it now because I don't think jreggie is going to answer soon.

Jreggie mentioned if eevee and cal are scum they are playing a good game but it's bold. What struck me about this was I actually think cal and eevee have avoided toalking to each other quite a bit.

It goes back to that feeling of now that we have had a day and a half of discussion who isn't talking to each other and the people that fit that description to me are eevee and cal.

I actually hadn't noticed that. That strengthens my scumread on both of them. Presenting a flashy difference of opinions without personally clashing that much, that's something scum wants to do. Will definitely lynch either of them.

I don't think me or calamitas are the type of people that tend to have personality clashes.
also, wouldn't calamitas have few interactions with anyone since such large chunk of his posts have been theory? rereading specific players from phone is terrible, but i don't think there is a particular dearth of interactions between me and cal specifically.

[SpaceAnemone]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

Good catch. Maybe LL for third?

Huh.. I actually find this exchange kind of scummy, because LL's very next post after his vote points out that teamlyle may well be scum, and that the lynch works well either way round. The two posts in question are #370 and #371. I feel like mentioning the first one out of context is something you'd do trying to construct a false case on LL, much more than if you'd been re-reading to see what it was he'd actually been up to at that point in the game. (He also emphasizes the "teamlyle might be scum" thing in #383 and #384... it's kind of hard to miss).

[Eevee]

towny people: robz, sa, mcmc

scummy people: j reggie, lalight

towny-ish: pacofv (we've agreed a lot, but that could also be a way for scum to say things that don't get them in trouble), calamitas (fighting against the windmills doesn't sound like scum action to me - i think more likely he would have given up as scum at some point yesterday - i believe he truly believed he was right)

no idea: ww (don't remember him being this aloof)

[pacovf]

The past few pages are actually really interesting, but I need to get my hands on a computer to properly analyze them. I am still waiting for a read list from Calamitas though.  In fact, I expect everyone to get more active now, there is a lot of new information available.

That being said, vote: Robz

[Witherweaver]

I am the apotheosis of alooofivity.

Also I've been drinking.

[Witherweaver]

You can ask me anything, but I may not be answering.

[SpaceAnemone]

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.

It's just that by Day 2, a lot of the time I find that people are just wildly suspicious of me no matter what I do. So you're treating me like town, either because you have a sincere and really solid (and actually correct as it turns out) read on me, or because you're scum and getting on my good side is (in your view) the right strategy.

And I have to try and figure out which of these things is more likely for you. Definitely could be the first thing, but do you see why I would worry it's the second?

So you are playing very towny. Like with how much of a town read I have on you, I think eevee as towny would also have a town read on you but i think eevee is scum.

vote:eevee

This was an unannounced L-1, I believe.

[SpaceAnemone]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

... and if I'm right about the L-1, then this was a hammer.

[LaLight]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

... and if I'm right about the L-1, then this was a hammer.

Come on, Really?!

[SpaceAnemone]

... And in case I'm wrong on a technicality again, I think the current vote stances look like this:

Space Count

Calamitas: teamlyle
Eevee: Space, WW, mcmc, JR {L-1}
JR: Robz, LL
Robz: paco
Not voting: Calamitas, Eevee

-- Robz moved off Eevee onto JR just after the probably-a-hammer vote. If he didn't realise it was a hammer, it will make him look very scummy if Eevee actually flips scum. If Eevee's town, then that's another avalanche of scum-points for JR, though still in an almost-too-scummy-to-be-true way.

[SpaceAnemone]

Unvote

Just in case. For a sluggishly slow game, this one might have been moving too fast for most people after all.

[Eevee]

Oh, bummer. I was town too.

[pacovf]

I mean, potential presence of a governor forces you to say so.


But damn! This super sucks! One afternoon of activity and we get a derphammer...

[pacovf]

Still have twilight? Eevee, any reads before the thread is closed?

[pacovf]

Actually, I see you just posted your reads. Still, this might be your last chance to add anythin to the discussion.

[teamlyle]

Vote: J Reggie

[J Reggie]

Wow, sorry guys. If Eevee is town then we lose, because there's no way I'm not getting lynched tomorrow. Let's just hope he's scum then. In fact, I'm pretty sure he is.

[J Reggie]

Although shoes mcmcsalot's vote count? There wasn't a space. Either way, still down for lynching Eevee, just not on a derp hammer.

[Calamitas]

Although shoes mcmcsalot's vote count? There wasn't a space. Either way, still down for lynching Eevee, just not on a derp hammer.

According to the rules it won't

[Robz888]

Well we need to know if mcmc's vote counts. What's the argument it doesn't? There was no space after the colon so the vote doesn't show up on typical searches?

I mean, I hope it doesn't count. I think Eevee is the wrong way to go. We should like double and triple lynch J Reggie.

[J Reggie]

Well we need to know if mcmc's vote counts. What's the argument it doesn't? There was no space after the colon so the vote doesn't show up on typical searches?

I mean, I hope it doesn't count. I think Eevee is the wrong way to go. We should like double and triple lynch J Reggie.

If you're scum, you definitely want to lynch me. If you're town you probably want to lynch me because you don't realize I'm in your side. But I know scum is going for me. Such an easy mislynch.

[Calamitas]

6. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.

I think the rules are quite clear in this regard, the vote won't count.

[SpaceAnemone]

Although shoes mcmcsalot's vote count? There wasn't a space. Either way, still down for lynching Eevee, just not on a derp hammer.

According to the rules it won't

Okay, well let's Request Vote Count just to be sure.

And if you're still around and following, what are your thoughts on JR's vote, and how does the mcmc-Robz interaction on that wagon feel to you, since you were saying before that you dislike their buddying?

PPE 1

[Calamitas]

Just finished my re-read of D1, here the things that threw me off guard:

- pacovf stating that mcm is "superbuddying" robz in #228 even though there wasn't actual buddying that time, that started way later
- LaLight start with a strong opinion on lynching teamlyle right after the claim (#370, #371, #383, #387), but makes a U turn in #505 even though he later sympathizes with mine/silver's position while staying at silver

LaLight definitely comes out scummiest after my re-read. I really don't like his swingyness in regard to teamlyle.
Pacovf's comment is irritating in hindsight but I'm not whether there is something behind it. What was your train of thought that time, pacovf?

For now, vote: LaLight

[Calamitas]

Although shoes mcmcsalot's vote count? There wasn't a space. Either way, still down for lynching Eevee, just not on a derp hammer.

According to the rules it won't

Okay, well let's Request Vote Count just to be sure.

And if you're still around and following, what are your thoughts on JR's vote, and how does the mcmc-Robz interaction on that wagon feel to you, since you were saying before that you dislike their buddying?

PPE 1

Re-read of D2 incoming tomorrow. But my primary concern about mcm-robz is the fact that both are definitely good enough players to mimick their town play as scum very well. So they shouldn't consider each other close to conf!town since I expect both to be able to pull off towny play with either alignment.
If it would be that easy (mcm scumhunts --> town!mcm) he wouldn't be such a good player.

[schadd]

Vote Count 2.3

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (2): Witherweaver, J Reggie
J Reggie (3): teamlyle, LaLight, Robz888
Robz888 (1): pacovf
Not voting (3): Eevee, mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time.


this vote does not count:

vote:eevee

in that it does not follow the syntax here:

6. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.

i figure that this rule ought to be restrictive, since unambiguity is zuper important for voting. i'm pretty sure that i saw ashersky not count a vote without a space, also

[Robz888]

Well that's good.

[LaLight]

Will be funny if after all Eevee will be scum. I'm quite fine with the vote on J Reggie.

[Witherweaver]

Catching up.

[Witherweaver]

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

Sorry, bit it was just coincidence. The thing I am guilty of is being inactive. I haven't had a chance to catch up for a few days, and I finally got a chance, caught up, and voted. In fact, most of the suspicion on me was in my ppes after that big post. So no, if I am scum, you haven't found me for the right reasons.

Does scum overtly say this? :/

Have we (by we I mean me) seen scum!JReggie?

[Witherweaver]

@lalight (also on phone and quotes are hard)

I can understand that reasoning for me being scum, I can defend by saying it would be too dangerous as scum to actively push for the lynch of both your teammates this early on.

As for your thoughts on paco I think his reads posts and questions are all actively helping push the thread along.

Busses are often early, actually.

[Witherweaver]

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

This is also a "quick, get distracted!" post. Like, okay, I understand what you're saying obviously, this buddying is bad if one or both of us is scum, but you're not saying that. You're not saying, this is bad because they are a scum team, or this is bad because you think I'm getting fooled by my brother, or it's bad because it's the other way around. You're just saying, this is not good, but not providing the reason. Liek the J Reggie thing I pointed out, this is something that comes from scum. You forgot to supply the reason we should actually be freaked about here, because you know we're both actually town.

I think scum may be screwing up this game. Calamitas is the off wagon scum, J Reggie and X the on-wagon scum? (Where X is Eevee, maybe?) Could it be that easy?

Good point. What's the actual read on Robz and McMc from Calamitas?

[Witherweaver]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

Hey I said this before!  Note that immediately after he's insistent on pointing out how Teamlyle may actually be lying.  Though from what I can remember that's the only real scum point against LaLight.

[Witherweaver]

I think jreggie is the best bet, I would love withereavers thoughts on what we've talked about as well as eevee.

Oh hey that's me.  I'm pretty sure I wanted to lynch both J Reggie and Eevee.  And Calamitas too.

Other thoughts on what you've talked about: too much scum team stuff; focus on lynching scummy first, then find teams from interactions.  I'm also not convinced on wagon distribution line of thinking... I think keeping a particular x/N-x wagon split is not your main priority as scum.. scum play is much more opportunistic.  You discuss tactics but you can't really plan for how the flow of a game will go. 

[Witherweaver]

I tend to agree that coming back into the game and setting it on fire the way mcmc just did is a town tell. It could technically be that both mcmc and Robz are scum acting for massive towncred so that they get to lead the game, but I think that is just paranoia because of the ultra-high level of buddying we are looking at here, which I assume feels weird to anyone outside the bro pair.

That being said, the comment about Calamitas and his post on the buddying is actually fairly convincing. My town read on Calamitas is decreasing.

Votes speak louder than words!

[Witherweaver]

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

This is a very good point. Reminds me of Robz and Galzria wayy back when in that one game ages back, modern community maybe? One was scum then. Also me and Galzria in Ozle's (let's see if mentioning him still summons him) first game (Galzria was scum then, I totally trusted him, and we lost).

I guess what i'm saying is that this level of mutual trust is much more likely if one of them is scum. *' reading both of them as town but robz more so, but also think if one is fooling the other, 85/ more likely to be robz.

I don't advocate lunching either today, more like a reminder for both of them that i feel these super mutual things don't usually end well for town in my experience.

Who do you advocate lynching, again?  I see like no offense from Eevee.

[Witherweaver]

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

Good catch. Maybe LL for third?

Huh.. I actually find this exchange kind of scummy, because LL's very next post after his vote points out that teamlyle may well be scum, and that the lynch works well either way round. The two posts in question are #370 and #371. I feel like mentioning the first one out of context is something you'd do trying to construct a false case on LL, much more than if you'd been re-reading to see what it was he'd actually been up to at that point in the game. (He also emphasizes the "teamlyle might be scum" thing in #383 and #384... it's kind of hard to miss).

Right, but did he forget that he had to think to consider it in the first place.

[Witherweaver]

... And in case I'm wrong on a technicality again, I think the current vote stances look like this:

Space Count

Calamitas: teamlyle
Eevee: Space, WW, mcmc, JR {L-1}
JR: Robz, LL
Robz: paco
Not voting: Calamitas, Eevee

-- Robz moved off Eevee onto JR just after the probably-a-hammer vote. If he didn't realise it was a hammer, it will make him look very scummy if Eevee actually flips scum. If Eevee's town, then that's another avalanche of scum-points for JR, though still in an almost-too-scummy-to-be-true way.

So lynching Eevee would tell us a lot?

[Witherweaver]

Okay so there wasn't a lynch.  Does everyone think Eevee's town now?

I think I'd prefer Calamitas to J Reggie.

[Eevee]

Oh! I came in totally resigned to just claiming my role, what a happy surprise!

Ww, I posted a reads list one page back. Also I think i'm town!

I think the points calamitas is making are actually pretty sensible, if he is a little light on reads still. I think it's just against his personality to make conclusions from insufficient information. Wouldn't it be easier for him to fake some more reads and conviction if he was scum?

J Reggie, did you realize you were hammering me?

[J Reggie]

Oh! I came in totally resigned to just claiming my role, what a happy surprise!

Ww, I posted a reads list one page back. Also I think i'm town!

I think the points calamitas is making are actually pretty sensible, if he is a little light on reads still. I think it's just against his personality to make conclusions from insufficient information. Wouldn't it be easier for him to fake some more reads and conviction if he was scum?

J Reggie, did you realize you were hammering me?

No, I didn't realize you had more than two votes on you. And I wasn't hammering you, I was L-1ing you which isn't as bad, as long as you show some remorse for your actions.

[SpaceAnemone]

Oh! I came in totally resigned to just claiming my role, what a happy surprise!

Ww, I posted a reads list one page back. Also I think i'm town!

I think the points calamitas is making are actually pretty sensible, if he is a little light on reads still. I think it's just against his personality to make conclusions from insufficient information. Wouldn't it be easier for him to fake some more reads and conviction if he was scum?

J Reggie, did you realize you were hammering me?

No, I didn't realize you had more than two votes on you. And I wasn't hammering you, I was L-1ing you which isn't as bad, as long as you show some remorse for your actions.

Were you confident that it was an L-1 and not a hammer, though?

And what did you think of mcmc's unannounced "L-1" vote?

In fact, why aren't other people who've been posting since there (Robz, Eevee and WW in particular) thinking about mcmc's motivation behind that vote?

Oh, and while I'm at it, what does mcmc have to say for himself about it?

Lastly, a very Merry Roast Potato Day to all who celebrate it ;-)

[Witherweaver]

Lastly, a very Merry Roast Potato Day to all who celebrate it ;-)

Confirmed Irish.

[Robz888]

I think mcmc just didn't realize.

[SpaceAnemone]

Lastly, a very Merry Roast Potato Day to all who celebrate it ;-)

Confirmed Irish.

I'm Scottish!! Both potatoes (and that other festive staple, chocolate!) come from the far side of the Pond anyway, originally, don't they?

[Calamitas]

SA, what do you think about mcm's vote?

[SpaceAnemone]

SA, what do you think about mcm's vote?

Well, fake-hammers to catch scum are all very well, but I feel like his was an accidental fake-L-1. If he'd posted rather earlier to make it clear it was intentional, then I might have given town-points for it, since we did get something of a reaction from Eevee in the ensuing uncertainty, and we also got JR's scummy sort-of-hammer. Mcmc has posted since JR's "hammer", though not in more than 48 hours now... I'd really like to know what he has to say, even though I expect it's going to be just an explanation that he hadn't realised it was L-1 and that he messed up his voting accidentally.

[SpaceAnemone]

Calamitas, are you still doing your full D2 read today?

[Calamitas]

Calamitas, are you still doing your full D2 read today?

Yep, will do so later.

[Eevee]

Good point, SA. My first thought is that people should be more careful and pay closer attention when voting, there is really no reason not to go back and check the status before voting. It's so unfortunate, because we don't want to lynch town for being careless, but these things just help scum so so much, that it's hard to let them go either. Especially J Reggie has been super egregious in this game. It's not showing remorse if you do something even worse the following day, grumble grumble.

[Witherweaver]

Such an Eevee response :/

[Calamitas]

Okay, just finished my D2 re-read (it's 4:22 and phone posting, so please excuse typos and bad grammar )

SA seems like the SA I'm used to (Have played with them being town quite frequently and haven't yet seen scum!SA). So this may or may not be town-indicative but certainly not the other way around.

Opinion on LaLight hasn't really changed, still consider him quite scummy for his weird stance on teamlyle (seeming pro-teamlyle lynch but not fighting for it at all).

As expressed before, I don't like that robz and mcm consider each other close to conf!town because neither one has (if town) anywhere near sufficient information to hold that opinion due to the strength of their play.

Mcm is quite scummy for his L-1 vote. I would say making a mistake is about as likely to happen from town!mcm as from scum!mcm but scum!mcm might have any number of motivations in that regard. In particular I'm thinking about doing that to drive attention away from scum!eevee ("To figure out a strange plot, look at what happens, then ask who benefits"). But I admit that this is more speculation than anything.

Still wonder about pacovfs train of thought when making the mcm buddying post D1.

[pacovf]

Sorry for not being very present the last few days, what with Christmas and all. I should have time to get back into the game later today.

Still wonder about pacovfs train of thought when making the mcm buddying post D1.

I am not sure where you are trying to get with this. I thought they were already buddying each other back then, or at least mcmc was, and well, it hasn't stopped. So unless you think I was lying, which means that either I got lucky and town started buddying each other even harder after my comment, or that both mcmc and Robz went ahead with it because they are also scum, well, that comment is not alignment indicative at all, no?

[Calamitas]

Well, I was thinking along the lines you and mcm being both scum and planning that mcm should buddy mcm.
Of course it is quite a long shot but I don't really see how town!paco would come to that conclusion at all.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay, sorry for not being more present during the holiday. As for the vote on eevee I had absolutely no clue eevee was at l-2 before I voted. Terrible play on my part and it was complete luck I didn't hit space I have been gone posting exclusively this entire game. Obviously I still think eevee is scummy and it doesn't change that I would be happy to lynch him,just not in that manner.

[mcmcsalot]

@lalight (also on phone and quotes are hard)

I can understand that reasoning for me being scum, I can defend by saying it would be too dangerous as scum to actively push for the lynch of both your teammates this early on.

As for your thoughts on paco I think his reads posts and questions are all actively helping push the thread along.

Busses are often early, actually.

I get what you are saying but I don't think they typically continue the way my reads have. All wifom of course.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so there wasn't a lynch.  Does everyone think Eevee's town now?

I think I'd prefer Calamitas to J Reggie.

I still don't think so but I think a j Reggie lynch is as likely to hit scum and provides a good information.

I'm finding it harder to read cal than other people I truly can't tell if he's scummy or just playing a type of town game I wouldn't expect. Like I can see him being paranoid enough about the robz/me buddying that he is suspicious of us for no reason which in turn looks scummy. It could also be scummy, I'm just less convinced than others.

[mcmcsalot]

@spaceanemonie post 872: you asked sort of two questions and I wanted to make sure I addressed both, the vote was meant to be a vote, I would have made the vote even if it put eevee to l-1 I think, though idk I might have just said intent to vote as I did and do find eevee scummy but would want more discussion to the day.

[mcmcsalot]

Such an Eevee response :/

So my town read on you is super strong at this point. I like that you have pointed out my scum team conclusions are sort of scummy to be doing, I believe robz also mentioned it was silly to be trying and I agree, rereading I think I got a little carried away.

Baisically I think scum hasn't played that great of a game and we have done some good rereads and the towny players (me/you/robz/paco/space) are agreeing on a lot of points. I guess this explains why I was jumping to scum teams quickly, for once my town reads are just as strong as my scum reads.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so with cals reread post and his exchange with paco I am getting where people are getting a scum narrative, the posts do continue to seem like forced suspicion with little backing.

[mcmcsalot]

Vote Count 2.3

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (2): Witherweaver, J Reggie
J Reggie (3): teamlyle, LaLight, Robz888
Robz888 (1): pacovf
Not voting (3): Eevee, mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time.

Okay with this in mind and all our reads let's come to a conclusion.

Paco can you remind me why you are voting robz and would you be willing to lynch jreggie or eevee.

Witherweaver how do you feel about lynching jreggie, I believe if you are willing to vote for him I will l-1 and see what jreggie has to say for himself.

[Calamitas]

Okay so there wasn't a lynch.  Does everyone think Eevee's town now?

I think I'd prefer Calamitas to J Reggie.

I still don't think so but I think a j Reggie lynch is as likely to hit scum and provides a good information.

I'm finding it harder to read cal than other people I truly can't tell if he's scummy or just playing a type of town game I wouldn't expect. Like I can see him being paranoid enough about the robz/me buddying that he is suspicious of us for no reason which in turn looks scummy. It could also be scummy, I'm just less convinced than others.

Why should that ever be scummy? Why should I be more likely to make that claim as scum than as town?
It is just true that you two are good enough players to emulate your town play to a high extent when being scum.

[Robz888]

Okay, I'm all caught up now.

I still think J Reggie is probably the right lynch: scummy behavior is scummy.

My next-most-likely-to-be-scum candidates are LaLight and Calamitas, but NOT both of them. In fact, I think one of them is probably scum and the other is probably town, but I'm not sure which. Their interactions read "different alignment" to me, I'll try to go back and pull up some examples.

Space and WitherWeaver both seeming quite townie, but emphasis on "seeming."

I have like no read on paco. I don't really know why he's voting for me.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so there wasn't a lynch.  Does everyone think Eevee's town now?

I think I'd prefer Calamitas to J Reggie.

I still don't think so but I think a j Reggie lynch is as likely to hit scum and provides a good information.

I'm finding it harder to read cal than other people I truly can't tell if he's scummy or just playing a type of town game I wouldn't expect. Like I can see him being paranoid enough about the robz/me buddying that he is suspicious of us for no reason which in turn looks scummy. It could also be scummy, I'm just less convinced than others.

Why should that ever be scummy? Why should I be more likely to make that claim as scum than as town?
It is just true that you two are good enough players to emulate your town play to a high extent when being scum.

Well in this particular post I was trying to say I did think it was likely you would say that as town. I was saying other people are calling you scummy for the post and I can see a town narrative for it but I think I was having trouble reading you one way or the other.

My later post where I mention I am starting to make up my mind;

Okay so with cals reread post and his exchange with paco I am getting where people are getting a scum narrative, the posts do continue to seem like forced suspicion with little backing.

It's the fact that your reads post doesn't contain any info about robz and your thoughts on me a really limited to the most recent thing, the eevee vote. So now I see more how people think your posts about me and robz buddying seem more like scum trying to find things to go after people and not town concerned about us actually being scum.

[Eevee]

Vote: J Reggie L-1!!

Also, I feel mcmc is tunneling me, but I don't know what to think of it. Is it scum lining up a future mislynch, or just town blinded by an early read? I otherwise think he is playing a towny game, but it's hard for me when I feel he isn't even looking at me through the same lense than others. Is it actually a scumtell to act towny towards everyone but one player? My gut says he is town, but then again scum only needs to paint one player in bad light (at once). Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[LaLight]

Yeah, mcmc tunnelling you is quite strange, you seem townie to me, he seems townieish.. if the choice will come up, i'll be ip to mcmc lynch.

Still don't understand why he is tunnelling.

[mcmcsalot]

Yeah, mcmc tunnelling you is quite strange, you seem townie to me, he seems townieish.. if the choice will come up, i'll be ip to mcmc lynch.

Still don't understand why he is tunnelling.

Eh I don't think what I am doing is tunneling. I am continually posting reads as they change on almost every player in the game, I would go so far as to say claiming I am tunneling is a scummy mischaracterization, but obviously that's a little omgus. But really all I am doing is not letting eevee slip through the cracks by continually bringing it up as well as my other scum reads.

I was never convinced eevee wasn't scum d1 and I think scum convinced people under the guise of time running out and teamlyles weird early claim  that eevee was no longer an option. Scum that quells a day one wagon often is harder to lynch later on.

I will say there is a chance because of my early read I am more likely to look at eevees current vote as "oh obviously he's bussing" but I know that and I am trying to see eevee as town as well. You just really haven't given me a lot to think you are town

Also I want to say my biggest concern with robz is that he keeps saying he doesn't want to lynch eevee and that jreggie and cal are the better choices but he hasn't given his reasons for not wanting to vote eevee despite me asking.

Again I'm going down a bad scum team hole but a robz/eevee/jreggie team is possible they would be playing a successful scum game. Setting up the lynch of jreggie and "one of cal or lalight" aka whichever one town is willing to lynch. I don't think this is likely but it is my worry about robz, wither and space how do you feel about this?

[Eevee]

I feel you are giving others town credit and omitting me when i'm doing the same thing (like calling you out for calling scum teams with very insufficient information).

Basically, I feel you are only pointing out the things in my behavior that fit your idea that i'm scum, which coupled with saying i'm scum for reasons that i don't think town would think, makes me feel the read might not be authentic (i feel you aren't behaving this way towards anyone or anything else in the game).

[mcmcsalot]

I'm very glad you mentioned you also said my scum team naming was scummy. I remembered someone else had said it but didn't remember at the time of making my post. In my head I though it was robz or paco but new I needed to double check. I would hope I would have noticed but I understand feeling like I misrepresented that.

I will say my scum read on you has lessened in a way, I understand my reason for finding you scummy in the first place was "good" day1 and as reasons for lynching become more concrete and you are not acting MORE scummy I should take that as a lessening scum read on you. This is why I think jreggie is a better lynch candidate today. And pending more information there are other people I can see finding scummier than you as well.

[Robz888]

Also I want to say my biggest concern with robz is that he keeps saying he doesn't want to lynch eevee and that jreggie and cal are the better choices but he hasn't given his reasons for not wanting to vote eevee despite me asking.

Again I'm going down a bad scum team hole but a robz/eevee/jreggie team is possible they would be playing a successful scum game. Setting up the lynch of jreggie and "one of cal or lalight" aka whichever one town is willing to lynch. I don't think this is likely but it is my worry about robz, wither and space how do you feel about this?

Well I liked some of your points against Eevee as you were making them, though I can't really remember what they are now, and so I've never really understood the strong case against Eevee, which you have been making pretty much since the game started, with amazing consistence. Yeah, if Eevee is scum, I fully accept that I will look like an accomplice, and that will suck.

[Robz888]

Actually mcmc, YOU are really the one who continues to push Eevee but not in a way that actually gets him lynched, maybe you'd be his scum buddy.

I was mostly joking as I started to write this but it occurs to me it's weirdly plausible. It would actually be a decent reason for why you've tunneled him all game.

Gah. Now I have to consciously bury that horrifying possibility in the back of my brain.

[schadd]

Vote Count 2.4

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (2): Witherweaver, J Reggie
J Reggie (4): teamlyle, LaLight, Robz888, Eevee
Robz888 (1): pacovf
Not voting (2): mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time.

[Eevee]

I'm very glad you mentioned you also said my scum team naming was scummy. I remembered someone else had said it but didn't remember at the time of making my post. In my head I though it was robz or paco but new I needed to double check. I would hope I would have noticed but I understand feeling like I misrepresented that.

I will say my scum read on you has lessened in a way, I understand my reason for finding you scummy in the first place was "good" day1 and as reasons for lynching become more concrete and you are not acting MORE scummy I should take that as a lessening scum read on you. This is why I think jreggie is a better lynch candidate today. And pending more information there are other people I can see finding scummier than you as well.

That's fair.

[SpaceAnemone]

Again I'm going down a bad scum team hole but a robz/eevee/jreggie team is possible they would be playing a successful scum game. Setting up the lynch of jreggie and "one of cal or lalight" aka whichever one town is willing to lynch. I don't think this is likely but it is my worry about robz, wither and space how do you feel about this?

I don't like being told we have two or three choices when we've got another few days of D2 left, but we don't have to obey :-) I think we all agree JR's actions have been quite anti-town, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's scum. Calamitas actually seems relatively townie to me. LL seems less townie, but he's also hospitalised and on medication, so the fact he's not his usual self is unsurprising.

Robz was a big town-read of mine coming out of D1, but I'm feeling a healthier level of suspicion now. Eevee was my biggest scum read before, but after the vote mess, he's come out looking townier... so if he's scum, that's a very good feat of vote-engineering!

For me, the moderately-suspicious pool of good players is Robz, mcmc, Paco and Eevee. WW is less suspicious, but I haven't re-read him in a while.

[pacovf]

We've gone from this:

So you are playing very towny. Like with how much of a town read I have on you, I think eevee as towny would also have a town read on you but i think eevee is scum.

Looking at it again, if you and I are pretty confident in each other not being scum, and we think there's one scum off wagon, we have a 50% chance. It's WW or Calamitas. I guess I'm not actually sure where I lean there, though. I would have said WW for sure, but man Calamitas is not doing anything but theory talk.

To this:

Also I want to say my biggest concern with robz is that he keeps saying he doesn't want to lynch eevee and that jreggie and cal are the better choices but he hasn't given his reasons for not wanting to vote eevee despite me asking.

Again I'm going down a bad scum team hole but a robz/eevee/jreggie team is possible they would be playing a successful scum game. Setting up the lynch of jreggie and "one of cal or lalight" aka whichever one town is willing to lynch. I don't think this is likely but it is my worry about robz, wither and space how do you feel about this?

Actually mcmc, YOU are really the one who continues to push Eevee but not in a way that actually gets him lynched, maybe you'd be his scum buddy.

I was mostly joking as I started to write this but it occurs to me it's weirdly plausible. It would actually be a decent reason for why you've tunneled him all game.

Gah. Now I have to consciously bury that horrifying possibility in the back of my brain.

What happened?


Also, mcmc, you keep insisting that people (scum?) said that time was running out D1. It was indeed running out. There was no activity during the last day before deadline, and the hammer came in the middle of the night, mere hours before the deadline. So, hm, you know, I don't think that's a very good argument for anything.

More coming.

[pacovf]

LaLight a few things have pointed to scum!lalight, such as the comment about gkrieg.

Calamitas basically only talks about theory.  Would probably do that as town, but would be more likely to do it as scum. Especially if it helps us get a mislynch through.

Witherweaver unhelpful as usual. Probably town though.

Robz888 is sneaky. I don't have as strong a scum read on him as I did.

SpaceAnemone very helpful as usual. I want to think they're town.

Eevee led the charge on ss. A scum team with Eevee and calamitas would be very good play, but I don't know if they're bold enough to do that. What do people think?

mcmcsalot is scumreading me now . Not sure what to think

pacovf one of the only people pushing the game forward. Let's keep him.


So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

So you say that you don't think Calamitas and Eevee are bold enough to do what they did if they are both scum, yet you still say they are the scum team.

Also, can you be more specific about your scum read on Lalight? The reason you give is still very flimsy, and I don't know what "a few things" are.

(btw, am I the only one for whom the forum is super slow?)

[SpaceAnemone]

Still wonder about pacovfs train of thought when making the mcm buddying post D1.

I am not sure where you are trying to get with this. I thought they were already buddying each other back then, or at least mcmc was, and well, it hasn't stopped. So unless you think I was lying, which means that either I got lucky and town started buddying each other even harder after my comment, or that both mcmc and Robz went ahead with it because they are also scum, well, that comment is not alignment indicative at all, no?

I think Calamitas absolutely has a point here. Paco accused mcmc of "super-buddying" Robz at post #228. At that point, mcmc only had 5 in-game posts (#148, #149, #156, #161 and #166), and of those, only the very last one was in response to Robz. None of the other ones mentioned Robz... they were mostly about WW stuff, and one was asking me if I'm scum, since I'd voted for him as my opening RVS vote just to say hello.

PS: Yeah, I'm finding the forum quite slow tonight.

PPS: I'm going to be kind-of-VLA tomorrow; I'm traveling and visiting relatives for 12+ hours of the day...

[pacovf]

Oh! I came in totally resigned to just claiming my role, what a happy surprise!

Wait, why didn't you just claim your role when you thought you were lynched? Why did you wait until the next time you logged on to the forum, with the risk of the thread being closed and all that?

PPE: ugh, you don't need to specifically address someone to buddy them, you just need to agree with everything they say. I can look up the exchange again if you really want me to, it's definitely not something I just made up.

[pacovf]

Random questions:

why is Robz your biggest townread, Lalight?

Calamitas concern about Robz-mcmc buddying is voiced in a scummy way. Calamitas, what do you think would be a good reason to consider either of them towny? And why do you think they are such good players?

Robz making comments about scum playing badly is very scummy. It shows a level of certainty that is just incongruent with the fact that it's D2 and we have not lynched a single scum.

mcmc, how did you "notice" that Calamitas and Eevee were not addressing each other?

Eevee trying to sow distrust between Robz and mcmc is kinda scummy. Doesn't feel paranoid so much as cunning. On the other hand, if Eevee turns out to be scum, it would be a strong pointer to both Robz and mcmc being town (and either being scum would point to Eevee being town). Eevee also seems to be more concerned about mcmc finding him scummy than seems warranted for the pressure on him. [This is not really a question]


Oh, and I am voting Robz 50% because gut, 50% to see reactions. mcmc was the first to question the vote, and Robz waited until somebody else did to comment on it. So, there's that.

[pacovf]

I have to say, J Reggie seems waaaay too scummy to be scum. Am I the only one bothered by that?

I am fairly certain that WW and mcmc are town, everyone else is up in the air. In particular, I am close to perfectly null on SA. That leaves Eevee, Robz, Calamitas, Lalight.

By the way, SA, why do you think Eevee came out of the voting mess looking townier?

[Eevee]

Oh! I came in totally resigned to just claiming my role, what a happy surprise!

Wait, why didn't you just claim your role when you thought you were lynched? Why did you wait until the next time you logged on to the forum, with the risk of the thread being closed and all that?

PPE: ugh, you don't need to specifically address someone to buddy them, you just need to agree with everything they say. I can look up the exchange again if you really want me to, it's definitely not something I just made up.

There was christmas happening (hope everyone had nice holidays, by the way!), I got distracted.  Should have gotten back earlier, but obviously very bad timing.


Why such a strong townread on WW? Especially interested because he is such a mystery to me.

[Eevee]

About J Reggie, it is troublesome, but do you have a better idea? His actions just make no sense for town is the thing for me.

[pacovf]

I think JReggie is just not spending a lot of time / brainpower on this game. Things like hammering without bothering to check the vote count, or saying "if I am scum you didn't caught me for the right reasons", man, does scum do that?

This is town!WW, as far as I can tell, it's not one specific thing, it's just the way he is playing. I would like to give solid arguments, but it's hard to do that before we lynch our first scum.

[pacovf]

He's also shown annoyance at having a wagon develop on him when he finally found the time to get back into the game, what does everyone make of that?

[Calamitas]

Well, the fact that robz is a really good player is just obvious I would say. He is clearly the most experienced one here and has most MVPs under his belt. Mcm has been more an assumption than anything but he is an experienced vet after all.
And my point is that such good players (eevee counts on that front as well for the record) don't really act alignment indicative. They know what is generally considered scummy and towny and how they play as town so they are able to emulate that to a very high extent. So usual play is just not really indicative in those cases and unless something out of the ordinary happens one cannot really assign town points/scum points for regular behavior. At least not with high confidence.
And that is where my problem with the buddying resides, they expressed significantly more confidence in each other being town than they should have.

PPE 5

[pacovf]

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.

[Calamitas]

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.

Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

[LaLight]

why is Robz your biggest townread, Lalight?

There is a reason.. it's not something i got to know at night, it's something i read from him. Not too strong of a proof, but quite.

I have to say, J Reggie seems waaaay too scummy to be scum. Am I the only one bothered by that?

well, J Reggie was obv!scum in M86 where we were partners, but was never lynched and we won. Actually this is one of the reasons why i'm voting for him.

[Robz888]

We've gone from this:

So you are playing very towny. Like with how much of a town read I have on you, I think eevee as towny would also have a town read on you but i think eevee is scum.

Looking at it again, if you and I are pretty confident in each other not being scum, and we think there's one scum off wagon, we have a 50% chance. It's WW or Calamitas. I guess I'm not actually sure where I lean there, though. I would have said WW for sure, but man Calamitas is not doing anything but theory talk.

To this:

Also I want to say my biggest concern with robz is that he keeps saying he doesn't want to lynch eevee and that jreggie and cal are the better choices but he hasn't given his reasons for not wanting to vote eevee despite me asking.

Again I'm going down a bad scum team hole but a robz/eevee/jreggie team is possible they would be playing a successful scum game. Setting up the lynch of jreggie and "one of cal or lalight" aka whichever one town is willing to lynch. I don't think this is likely but it is my worry about robz, wither and space how do you feel about this?

Actually mcmc, YOU are really the one who continues to push Eevee but not in a way that actually gets him lynched, maybe you'd be his scum buddy.

I was mostly joking as I started to write this but it occurs to me it's weirdly plausible. It would actually be a decent reason for why you've tunneled him all game.

Gah. Now I have to consciously bury that horrifying possibility in the back of my brain.

What happened?


Also, mcmc, you keep insisting that people (scum?) said that time was running out D1. It was indeed running out. There was no activity during the last day before deadline, and the hammer came in the middle of the night, mere hours before the deadline. So, hm, you know, I don't think that's a very good argument for anything.

More coming.

Well, impressions change, sometimes very rapidly. Although it doesn't actually look like anyone changed their mind all that much there. So not sure why this is worth pointing out.

[Robz888]

Robz making comments about scum playing badly is very scummy. It shows a level of certainty that is just incongruent with the fact that it's D2 and we have not lynched a single scum.

When did I do this and why is it scummy?

[Robz888]

Oh, and I am voting Robz 50% because gut, 50% to see reactions. mcmc was the first to question the vote, and Robz waited until somebody else did to comment on it. So, there's that.

Valid to see reactions. I didn't comment on it because you didn't supply a reason, and then I commented that you hadn't supplied a reason.

[Robz888]

Not sure what to make of pacovf. I disagree with a lot of the opinions he's giving here.

[Robz888]

We haven't gotten a claim yet from J Reggie, have we?

[LaLight]

We haven't gotten a claim yet from J Reggie, have we?

Nope.

[pacovf]

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.

Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

That's all fine and good, but you realize that you just gave yourself an excuse to not have any reads on the good players, right? That's concerning.

why is Robz your biggest townread, Lalight?

There is a reason.. it's not something i got to know at night, it's something i read from him. Not too strong of a proof, but quite.

Can you give me a more specific answer, or is it only gut?

I have to say, J Reggie seems waaaay too scummy to be scum. Am I the only one bothered by that?

well, J Reggie was obv!scum in M86 where we were partners, but was never lynched and we won. Actually this is one of the reasons why i'm voting for him.

Fair enough. But look at it from my perspective. You come back to the game, and you see that no one, as far as I can tell (aside from maybe a quick side comment by WW) is opposing a J Reggie lynch. What am I supposed to conclude from that?

In M86, was he obv!scum to you only, to everyone? Did people actually want to lynch him saying he was obv!scum? This is actually an important question. I will try to read M86 if I have the time (but then again, Christmas break and family).

Well, impressions change, sometimes very rapidly. Although it doesn't actually look like anyone changed their mind all that much there. So not sure why this is worth pointing out.

You did! You both were all but certain that the other was town. Then Calamitas, Eevee and me expressed concern over how much you were buddying each other, and bam! You start suspecting each other.

Robz making comments about scum playing badly is very scummy. It shows a level of certainty that is just incongruent with the fact that it's D2 and we have not lynched a single scum.

When did I do this and why is it scummy?

You've done it a few times, but I have to run out to do some errands now, I will fish them out for you when I come back. It's scummy because, at this stage of the game, town should not be certain of anything. So you being so certain that scum has been playing badly is just... I don't see how you could know that, as town. As scum, it's easy to pretend that you know, though, and makes people more willing to follow you.

Oh, and I am voting Robz 50% because gut, 50% to see reactions. mcmc was the first to question the vote, and Robz waited until somebody else did to comment on it. So, there's that.

Valid to see reactions. I didn't comment on it because you didn't supply a reason, and then I commented that you hadn't supplied a reason.

That would be fair, only you waited until literally two posts after somebody else brought it up (mcmc) to feel like you could comment on it. I am not surprised that mcmc brought it up first, because well he's been buddying you so much.

On the other hand, everybody knows that worrying about people voting for you is scummy, so you waiting until somebody brought it up to feel like you could talk about it shows that you are concerned about what people could think of you, more than you are concerned about what could possibly be going through my mind, which would lead to interactions, etc.

In fact, you've been shadowing mcmc ever since he got back into the game, with barely any deviation from his opinion.

Not sure what to make of pacovf. I disagree with a lot of the opinions he's giving here.

Disagreements are good! It leads to meaningful interactions, potential tells, reads, and can they be interpreted as people flip.

[LaLight]

I will answer to my two questions:

I saw specific Robz' message that makes me think he's town.

J Reggie was obv!scum for everyone and no one opposed his lynch. But there were always better candidates (i suppose this is what's happening now)

[LaLight]

Edit: specific Robz' post.

[pacovf]

I understand that you don't want to say which Robz's post makes you think he's town. Ok.

I will keep in mind what you say about J Reggie, we'll see how much time I end up having.

[Eevee]

Townread on pacovf is getting stronger, this really looks like legitimate scumhunting. I had a creeping suspicion there wasn't much original content from him, but mostly saying safe things others had said before, but this is clearly original, thought yourself content.

I agree there is something off about how mcmc and robz are approaching each other, but it's hard to say if that's just two people knowing each other really really well. If I got to play with my brother, I believe we'd approach each other very differently than others, for sure. It can be pretty blinding when you really want to trust someone, but also super dangerous for town if either is scum and fooling the other this bad. I do think mcmc is more likely to be scum of the two because robz has a townier voting/read - history, but i don't think either is the best lynch for today at least.

[Eevee]

Terrible form, stream of consciousness from phone. Apologies!

[pacovf]

It is. It's SO scummy that it's almost just a straightforwardly bad play. Is the scum team THAT worried about what silverspawn might say that it was worth hammering him in such incriminating fashion? If J Reggie is scum he's just playing an absolutely abysmal scum game (no offense intended!). So the question becomes, is that possible? Or is he just sort of scummy-seeming town?

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

I really don't like the robz-mcm buddying. Those two are two of the best players out here and they still consider each other (close) to conf!town just because of behavior.

This is also a "quick, get distracted!" post. Like, okay, I understand what you're saying obviously, this buddying is bad if one or both of us is scum, but you're not saying that. You're not saying, this is bad because they are a scum team, or this is bad because you think I'm getting fooled by my brother, or it's bad because it's the other way around. You're just saying, this is not good, but not providing the reason. Liek the J Reggie thing I pointed out, this is something that comes from scum. You forgot to supply the reason we should actually be freaked about here, because you know we're both actually town.

I think scum may be screwing up this game. Calamitas is the off wagon scum, J Reggie and X the on-wagon scum? (Where X is Eevee, maybe?) Could it be that easy?

Mcmc, well who is our most sure thing, then? Calamitas?

Emphasis mine. That's a lot of posts saying that scum is playing badly, which means that they are being "obvious" and we have "sure things". That did not sit well with me as I was reading it.

[pacovf]

Townread on pacovf is getting stronger, this really looks like legitimate scumhunting. I had a creeping suspicion there wasn't much original content from him, but mostly saying safe things others had said before, but this is clearly original, thought yourself content.

I agree there is something off about how mcmc and robz are approaching each other, but it's hard to say if that's just two people knowing each other really really well. If I got to play with my brother, I believe we'd approach each other very differently than others, for sure. It can be pretty blinding when you really want to trust someone, but also super dangerous for town if either is scum and fooling the other this bad. I do think mcmc is more likely to be scum of the two because robz has a townier voting/read - history, but i don't think either is the best lynch for today at least.

So, you think J Reggie is a better lynch? Because to me it's starting to look like a default lynch. Most people that were willing to lynch you are slowly shifting to lynching J Reggie, with no opposition. I understand why you, specifically, would much rather lynch J Reggie, but if another lynch option appeared, would you still prefer a J Reggie lynch today?

[Eevee]

LaLight is the other I would be interested in, really want to reread him when i get back home tomorrow. WW could be interesting as a mystery box, I feel no one is quoting any of his posts to comment even.

SA looks towny just based on scumhunting and content, as do you. The brothers still look towny-ish, although that has really been vaning as day2 has progressed. I don't agree with the cases/suspicions voiced on Calamitas, I sort of think like him (although less smart and scientific), I feel i see where he is coming from. I mean, he could be scum, and poe suggests he very well could be, but to me the biggest knock against him is that he hasn't done anything particularly towny.

the thing with j reggie, though, that i think scum would be pretty willing to bus him at this point, seeing it a lost cause and needless to go down with the sinking ship. i wouldn't be surprised to see the strongest proponents of lynching reggie to be scum if he flips scum. his actions just aren't adding up to town, and in a game this big it could really work out to have one scum go for the kamikaze strategy. mostly that i don't think scum would dare to oppose the j reggie lynch, but prefer the aggressive bus. actually almost feel that if reggie is scum, the towniest people would be those who haven't commented on him much, as his partners would either want to bus aggressively for town cred or try to subtly steer us towards alternative targets - the case is so strong they must feel there is a good chance he is going down no matter what they do, too risky to not take a position and look bad when we reread tomorrow.

[LaLight]

LaLight is the other I would be interested in, really want to reread him when i get back home tomorrow.

I sincerely admit lurking. You will reread me and vote for me. That's both irl stuff and "many games i'm in" stuff. I'm so sorry! I do not want you to waste time onme instead of catching real scum. I'm town, truly am.

Well, due to reads i feel Eevee/Pacovf/J Reggie team. We need to lynch Reggie already!

[Eevee]

I wasn't actually even thinking about volume, it's those kind of posts where you first appeal to emotion to me, and then in the chapter read me as scum that make your reads seem insincere.

[Eevee]

But i am okay with examining that tomorrow, we are in agreement that j reggie is no good for us!

(not that i don't like you reggie, just think you are scum)

[LaLight]

I wasn't actually even thinking about volume, it's those kind of posts where you first appeal to emotion to me, and then in the chapter read me as scum that make your reads seem insincere.

I wasn't directing to you only, it's for everyone
Hey, nothing personal, you just send me some scum vibes

[pacovf]

I am actually coming around on Lalight, I think he is town now. It's unfortunate that he thinks I am scum, but oh well.

[Eevee]

I am actually coming around on Lalight, I think he is town now. It's unfortunate that he thinks I am scum, but oh well.

Why is that?


@LL
Heh, no problem. Same of course. Hope you are feeling better!

[Calamitas]

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.

Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

That's all fine and good, but you realize that you just gave yourself an excuse to not have any reads on the good players, right? That's concerning.

Well, it is not an excuse but rather a fact. The default stuff is just not indicative if one knows what is considered towny/scummy by heart and clearly good enough to mimick their town play.
And if alignment-unindicative stuff is taken into account when building reads the reads aren't worth anything. Sure, they might sound neat but they aren't entangled to the probability of one being actual scum and actual scum [/i] and become just arbitrary. This is exactly what silver was saying in #616.

And paco, why do you think LaLight is town now? What do you think about his weird stance on teamlyle?

[Calamitas]

Ok, so how would you go about figuring out the alignment of the good players, then.

Hoping that something out of the ordinary happens
But the default stuff is just not indicative and we should all be aware of that.

That's all fine and good, but you realize that you just gave yourself an excuse to not have any reads on the good players, right? That's concerning.

Well, it is not an excuse but rather a fact. The default stuff is just not indicative if one knows what is considered towny/scummy by heart and clearly good enough to mimick their town play.
And if alignment-unindicative stuff is taken into account when building reads the reads aren't worth anything. Sure, they might sound neat but they aren't entangled to the probability of one being actual scum and actual town and become just arbitrary. This is exactly what silver was saying in #616.

And paco, why do you think LaLight is town now? What do you think about his weird stance on teamlyle?

Fixed

[Robz888]

Emphasis mine. That's a lot of posts saying that scum is playing badly, which means that they are being "obvious" and we have "sure things". That did not sit well with me as I was reading it.

Fair enough.

Look, as town I'm prone to changing my mind really rapidly in mafia games. It's actually what gets me in trouble, I think, one of the reasons people always think I'm scum when I'm town. Early reads are usually garbage, eventually things just click and you figure it out. When I'm expressing "certainty" I'm not actually certain of anything, but town has to feign certainty in order to achieve lynches at all, otherwise it's too easy for scum to undermine the lynches that scum doesn't want to happen. I know that sounds weird, but it's how it is, and it's how I play. I'll be pretty convinced mcmc is town up until the moment I change my mind (maybe--that's just an example). It's how it works for me. Neat, logical evolutions of reads are scummy, in my opinion. Scum has the luxury of concocting airtight narratives that explain how and why their reads have changed. Town doesn't have that luxury.

[J Reggie]

I'm not a PR. I'm a bad town player. There's no way I'm not getting lynched later in this game even if I stay alive today. Scum should hammer me now and town will have to work through lylo but it's better than this.

[mcmcsalot]

Paco has made lots of good posts/points relating to me hopefully I have time later to post via computer so I can format in quotes ect. But for now here are my thoughts.

So you asked how why me and robz went from completely thinking we were town d1(we had many of the same reads) to me casting suspicion on robz and him returning the thought toward me. You actually point out the very reason for my slightly changing read, it felt as though at open of day two robz begin differing to me for a group opinion instead of providing me with different insights toward the same point.

Also I have to point out for worry that overexplaining myself is confusing other townines, I do still think robz is town, just less so than I did in day one, similar to how my read on eevee has been slightly changed based on time and general posts.

[SpaceAnemone]

PPE: ugh, you don't need to specifically address someone to buddy them, you just need to agree with everything they say. I can look up the exchange again if you really want me to, it's definitely not something I just made up.

Yes, please!. There were only five posts that mcmc had made in the game by the time you commented (I linked them all up there in my post), and one of those was directed solely at me, so there shouldn't be much to go through! I remember thinking at the time you mentioned the "super-buddying" that I hadn't been aware of it at all, and it feels like the kind of thing I ought to learn to be more sensitive to.

[SpaceAnemone]

By the way, SA, why do you think Eevee came out of the voting mess looking townier?

He only just escaped being lynched. I would have expected scum to feel harder to lynch, but Eevee came very close to getting there by accident, and seemed to react in a fairly towny manner, though I take the point somebody (you? I can't remember) made about how he seemed to be logging in to come and claim in twilight rather that having done so immediately, and that seeming odd.

Sorry not to have a more step-by-step reasoning there... I'm really tired after a day of travel with my parents, and now I have them staying with me (rather than me staying with them) for a couple more days...

[J Reggie]

So what do people who are town think: how many scum are on my wagon right now, and if they're not all on my wagon would one of them hammer?  Or does scum want to defend me for town cred?

[teamlyle]

Vote: Calamitas

[Robz888]

Vote: Calamitas

I gather this means you don't like the J Reggie lynch anymore? Because of his claim and stuff? I guess, vote me and then go back to voting Calamitas if this is correct.

[Robz888]

I'm not a PR. I'm a bad town player. There's no way I'm not getting lynched later in this game even if I stay alive today. Scum should hammer me now and town will have to work through lylo but it's better than this.

Don't really know what to make of this. It doesn't really push me in any direction. It's just very... J Reggie-ish.

[teamlyle]

Vote: Robz

[teamlyle]

Vote: Calamitas

[Robz888]

Got it.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.5

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (2): Witherweaver, J Reggie
J Reggie (3): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee
Robz888 (1): pacovf
Calamitas (1): teamlyle

Not voting (2): mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay vote: jreggie this is back to l-1

Rereads that have confirmed my town reads on robz and space and wither as well as the amount of stagnation that has hit the thread makes me comfortable voting.

Also with teamlyle having unvoted I think it helps to have as many people in game on wagon so we have more information later but it also makes sense to utilize teamlyles vote so I'm not sure what is best in that regard.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

/tag

[Eevee]

Good point about teamlyle's vote coming from an IC. I much prefer Reggie to Calamitas though. Teamlyle, can you make a post with votes on people whose lynches you'd support? You can go back to Calamitas in the end of course.


SA, you should put your vote somewhere!

[mcmcsalot]

Good point about teamlyle's vote coming from an IC. I much prefer Reggie to Calamitas though. Teamlyle, can you make a post with votes on people whose lynches you'd support? You can go back to Calamitas in the end of course.


SA, you should put your vote somewhere!

Ugh here comes mcmc with his shovel...

I didn't really make a point about teamlyle's vote being from conf town. I said I wanted more non ic votes but that I also wanted to use as many town players to vote as possible so I came to a non conclusion. I'm sorry but this feels to me like something scum eevee says because he wants to acknowledge my post and be generally positive but not actually provide a thought.

Also eevee asking spaceanemone to vote is super not what I expect from town!eevee. Town!eevee has in the past mentioned he really likes to hold his vote till he has a strong read on someone, granted I believe that was referring to day1 and this isnlate day two so I get it but still. Jreggie is at l-1 so asking spaceanemone to just put their vote somewhere seems silly and unnecessary.

[LaLight]

Good point about teamlyle's vote coming from an IC. I much prefer Reggie to Calamitas though. Teamlyle, can you make a post with votes on people whose lynches you'd support? You can go back to Calamitas in the end of course.


SA, you should put your vote somewhere!

I see this VERY scummy also.

[Eevee]

Well, no. If SA wants another lynch, they should surely start working towards it, we have just one day before the deadline. It's bad to be not voting just before the deadline, unless you've recently changed your mind and are actively looking for another place for your vote. We want people to be accountable, the most concrete thing we have is votes. Being careful with my vote is an early day thing, definitely not a one day before the deadline - thing. I wanted to acknowledge your point because I thought it was a good one! I was hoping other people's inputs.

Getting people to use their vote when the deadline is looming, getting teamlyle's reads out to help us decide, getting other people's opinions on how we should take teamlyle's contributions into account, aren't all of those good things for us? I mean, of course you can always paint any action in the game as something scum would do, there is a lot of WIFOM and scum has to sometimes do pro-town things to appear towny.

[Eevee]

Good point about teamlyle's vote coming from an IC. I much prefer Reggie to Calamitas though. Teamlyle, can you make a post with votes on people whose lynches you'd support? You can go back to Calamitas in the end of course.


SA, you should put your vote somewhere!

I see this VERY scummy also.

Why is it VERY scummy?

[J Reggie]

Is it possible for scum to double kill? If not, someone should definitely hammer me.

[LaLight]

someone should definitely hammer me.

Well, if this is your point, and you don't want to defend yourself, selfhammer?

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee your response gets at a bit of how I felt you were scummily pushing people to do things in day one. Nothing spaceanemone has done so far has made me think "oh they might not vote in the next day and then we won't know how they felt." Spaceanemone has made their reads rather clear in the event a lynch happens with their vote not placed and I believe that they have been active in question others and moving the game.

It feels like you asked spaceanemone to do something without providing a reason, which was right after you approved of my point (which I didn't really
make) without a real reason, and sandwiched in between those statements was a restatement of who you are voting and that you find them more scummy then someone else...again without a reason. That is why it's very scummy

[mcmcsalot]

Actually vote: eevee space if you vote as well that brings eevee to l-1. You mentioned you find eevee scummier than jreggie, I think I agree based on eevees continued posts.

Teamlyle I am curious if you like me thoughts on eevee. If you agree eevee is scummy vote me and then vote back to whatever you like. Thank you.

Robz I would really like you to reread eevee and let me know what you, I definitely think you are town and I think you are just not putting in effort to read eevee, which is no problem you are just scumhunting other avenues.

[pacovf]

I prefer an Eevee lynch to a J Reggie lynch, I think. So vote: Eevee, L-1 (!) Haven't had time to read M86, but I still think that's the better lynch.

someone should definitely hammer me.

Well, if this is your point, and you don't want to defend yourself, selfhammer?

Yeeeeaaah no one self hammer, please. Can you explain the double kill thing, though, J Reggie?

[Robz888]

Can someone unvote Eevee to give me time re-read him? I'm not going to bother if he's just going to get derphammered.

[LaLight]

well. I am thinking Eevee is scummy but that leaves J Reggie alive again

I will hammer later if no one will.

[Eevee]

Oh my.

[Eevee]

Should I claim?

[pacovf]

Can someone unvote Eevee to give me time re-read him? I'm not going to bother if he's just going to get derphammered.

Sure, unvote, we still have time.

Should I claim?

Well, up to you, I guess.

[Robz888]

Should I claim?

Yes

[teamlyle]

Vote: J Reggie

[LaLight]

Vote: J Reggie

That was a hammer

[mcmcsalot]

Should I claim?

Yes

Seconded

[Eevee]

I think it's both me and J Reggie at L-1 now.

[Eevee]

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

[pacovf]

That's am awfully convenient claim though. Hm. Need to think.

[LaLight]

vote count.LL

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, J Reggie, mcmcsalot
J Reggie (4): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle

Not voting (2):, SpaceAnemone, pacovf

[LaLight]

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

Why gkrieg?

[SpaceAnemone]

Can someone unvote Eevee to give me time re-read him? I'm not going to bother if he's just going to get derphammered.

With all this talk of hammering and stuff, I should state that I'm a little bit busy entertaining my parents just now, but that they're leaving to go home again tomorrow, at which point I become more or less free to spend hours on this game (though it would be good for my research if I spend some time working too!).

I believe we have 34+ hours till the deadline, but that it's in the middle of the night for some of us, right? I don't intend not to participate in the voting, but events keep swinging my reads around.

PPE: 2

[Eevee]

Gkrieg is such a good player, information about him could be valuable, and I thought he could maybe perform the kill if he was scum.

[mcmcsalot]

Gkrieg is such a good player, information about him could be valuable, and I thought he could maybe perform the kill if he was scum.

Very convenient as paco said. Also this reasoning although it is completely believable, it says nothing relevant to this game. You said i tracked X because X is good and I thought he might do Y. That's such a stock answer, if you are a power role and you did track someone who ends up dying you have to have immediately thought oh great that stunk I better explain myself well. Then now when questioned you should be able to say, gkreik was acting this certain way, I had this suspicion about him because of that, I also noticed him doing this so I figured tracking him was a great option.

[Eevee]

Are you implying it was a bad idea to target gkrieg? I don't know how to better explain myself, I wanted information about him, unfortunately didn't get anything.

Can't really help the claim being convenient either. :/ Do you guys really think i'm likelier to be scum than j reggie?

[Robz888]

Tracking gkrieg was a terrible idea, he's so likely to die night 1. But it's possible town Eevee doesn't know that I guess.

Sorry not a lot of time at the moment but I will re read Eevee before deadline. Still time

[Robz888]

Actually that may be too harsh, I suppose knowing you can trust gkrieg is a major plus because his reads are so good. It's not who I would have picked though.

[Robz888]

Are you implying it was a bad idea to target gkrieg? I don't know how to better explain myself, I wanted information about him, unfortunately didn't get anything.

Can't really help the claim being convenient either. :/ Do you guys really think i'm likelier to be scum than j reggie?

Maybe.  I instinctively disbelieve all claims, tho lately that's been out to the test

[Eevee]

My role could help us in the future as well.

I don't know how to defend myself. I think LaLight and Reggie are the scummiest, feeling a lot less good about pacovf now as well (may be omgus, can't tell).

[mcmcsalot]

Are you implying it was a bad idea to target gkrieg? I don't know how to better explain myself, I wanted information about him, unfortunately didn't get anything.

Can't really help the claim being convenient either. :/ Do you guys really think i'm likelier to be scum than j reggie?

I'm not implying it was a bad idea, I think I was clear about that and the fact that you even responded with that first is distracting from my actual point. I'm going to feel really bad at this point if you are town because gosh everything you do is scummy.

How can you not explain your decision to use your power role on someone with any more depth than "he's good", "he could have done the nightkill", "I wanted information about him".

It's because you didn't think of a reason because you didn't do that. In fact your line of thinking makes more sense from the frame of, gkreig is a good player, he could have a power role, I'm going to kill him as scum. Your claim would provide safety for if someone watched you and saw you target gkriek as well.

[pacovf]

Are you implying it was a bad idea to target gkrieg? I don't know how to better explain myself, I wanted information about him, unfortunately didn't get anything.

Can't really help the claim being convenient either. :/ Do you guys really think i'm likelier to be scum than j reggie?

I'm not implying it was a bad idea, I think I was clear about that and the fact that you even responded with that first is distracting from my actual point. I'm going to feel really bad at this point if you are town because gosh everything you do is scummy.

How can you not explain your decision to use your power role on someone with any more depth than "he's good", "he could have done the nightkill", "I wanted information about him".

It's because you didn't think of a reason because you didn't do that. In fact your line of thinking makes more sense from the frame of, gkreig is a good player, he could have a power role, I'm going to kill him as scum. Your claim would provide safety for if someone watched you and saw you target gkriek as well.

I mean, town!PR do weird stuff all the time, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Especially with how D1 went for this game, it's not so strange that a tracker!Eevee wouldn't have much to go on.

I am torn on the claim. On the one hand, I would expect tracker!Eevee to defend himself better, he basically seems to have given up already. On the other hand, scum!Eevee could have said he tracked town, which had a chance of outing a town!PR.

I am leaning scum, though. Does anyone think that the chance of having a tracker is really worth the risk of not lynching Eevee?

[LaLight]

Are you implying it was a bad idea to target gkrieg? I don't know how to better explain myself, I wanted information about him, unfortunately didn't get anything.

Can't really help the claim being convenient either. :/ Do you guys really think i'm likelier to be scum than j reggie?

I'm not implying it was a bad idea, I think I was clear about that and the fact that you even responded with that first is distracting from my actual point. I'm going to feel really bad at this point if you are town because gosh everything you do is scummy.

How can you not explain your decision to use your power role on someone with any more depth than "he's good", "he could have done the nightkill", "I wanted information about him".

It's because you didn't think of a reason because you didn't do that. In fact your line of thinking makes more sense from the frame of, gkreig is a good player, he could have a power role, I'm going to kill him as scum. Your claim would provide safety for if someone watched you and saw you target gkriek as well.

I mean, town!PR do weird stuff all the time, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Especially with how D1 went for this game, it's not so strange that a tracker!Eevee wouldn't have much to go on.

I am torn on the claim. On the one hand, I would expect tracker!Eevee to defend himself better, he basically seems to have given up already. On the other hand, scum!Eevee could have said he tracked town, which had a chance of outing a town!PR.

I am leaning scum, though. Does anyone think that the chance of having a tracker is really worth the risk of not lynching Eevee?

At this point I'd lynch J Reggie.

[LaLight]

And look what will be with Eevee N2/D3.

[pacovf]

And look what will be with Eevee N2/D3.

?

If he actually is a tracker, he will die at night anyway. So not much use for his PR...

[Robz888]

And look what will be with Eevee N2/D3.

?

If he actually is a tracker, he will die at night anyway. So not much use for his PR...

But that's way better than us wasting a lynch on him

[pacovf]

Well, obviously, if he is town, then it's better to lynch someone else. Do you think Eevee is town?

[Eevee]

Are you implying it was a bad idea to target gkrieg? I don't know how to better explain myself, I wanted information about him, unfortunately didn't get anything.

Can't really help the claim being convenient either. :/ Do you guys really think i'm likelier to be scum than j reggie?

I'm not implying it was a bad idea, I think I was clear about that and the fact that you even responded with that first is distracting from my actual point. I'm going to feel really bad at this point if you are town because gosh everything you do is scummy.

How can you not explain your decision to use your power role on someone with any more depth than "he's good", "he could have done the nightkill", "I wanted information about him".

It's because you didn't think of a reason because you didn't do that. In fact your line of thinking makes more sense from the frame of, gkreig is a good player, he could have a power role, I'm going to kill him as scum. Your claim would provide safety for if someone watched you and saw you target gkriek as well.

I mean, town!PR do weird stuff all the time, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Especially with how D1 went for this game, it's not so strange that a tracker!Eevee wouldn't have much to go on.

I am torn on the claim. On the one hand, I would expect tracker!Eevee to defend himself better, he basically seems to have given up already. On the other hand, scum!Eevee could have said he tracked town, which had a chance of outing a town!PR.

I am leaning scum, though. Does anyone think that the chance of having a tracker is really worth the risk of not lynching Eevee?

At this point I'd lynch J Reggie.

You can!

[Eevee]

And look what will be with Eevee N2/D3.

?

If he actually is a tracker, he will die at night anyway. So not much use for his PR...

Much much better for us if they have to use their kill on me in that scenario.

[Eevee]

I'd also make a prime target for investigative roles for the future if we have them.

[LaLight]

#997 I'm voting for him.

[Eevee]

#997 I'm voting for him.

Sorry, I misremembered.

[Robz888]

It's objectively smarter to leave Eevee be for tonight. Will explain more when I get home. Do not lynch.

[mcmcsalot]

It's objectively smarter to leave Eevee be for tonight. Will explain more when I get home. Do not lynch.

You make a good point the issue is at this time I'm so so confident of eevees scummines I would rather just lynch scum. Since with jreggie it's a combo of scummines and anti-townness where I'm going to be utterly disappointed but not insanely surprised if jreggie flips town. I also don't want to potentially be killed in the night and have eevee escape suspicion without me there to keep reminding everyone how scummy he is lol.

[Eevee]

Am I really mcmc? I can't write essays, on phone, but just look at J Reggie's whole body of work, please.

[Eevee]

And try to be unbiased about how you are reading my posts. No way they could come from town? Compared to Reggie??

[mcmcsalot]

vote count.LL

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, J Reggie, mcmcsalot
J Reggie (4): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle

Not voting (2):, SpaceAnemone, pacovf

Also does it look to anyone else like we have a wagon on two members of the scum team bussing eachother, we have two players not voting but participating to allow for more discussion, and one scum player actively trying to avoid the thread/not join either of the wagons on his partners?

[mcmcsalot]

And try to be unbiased about how you are reading my posts. No way they could come from town? Compared to Reggie??

I was harsh in my statement, it's probably just a complement to the fact that with jreggie there is a nag in the back of my head that says maybe he is just really bad at this game or not putting any effort in to his posts and with you I don't believe you would t have better answers to my questions as town. I definitely still want to lynch jreggie as well so I am willing to hear reasons for him before you.

[Eevee]

Wouldn't I be more likely to be better prepared as scum? Scum is able to create perfect narratives, I'm bound by the truth.

[Eevee]

vote count.LL

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, J Reggie, mcmcsalot
J Reggie (4): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle

Not voting (2):, SpaceAnemone, pacovf

Also does it look to anyone else like we have a wagon on two members of the scum team bussing eachother, we have two players not voting but participating to allow for more discussion, and one scum player actively trying to avoid the thread/not join either of the wagons on his partners?

you are either scum going bold, or really overly optimistic/bold town. you know how hard it is to run up one scum wagon? you really think it's likely we are both scum? i do think reggie has a good chance of being scum, fwiw.

isn't how i already almost got lynch almost on accident a big point towards me being town?

[Eevee]

Did Reggie ever really even post anything to make the tide turn away from him? Just one vote to lynch him still!

[Eevee]

Please people reread me and J Reggie and don't just take mcmc's word for it! Maybe hopefully you'll see things differently.

[mcmcsalot]

isn't how i already almost got lynch almost on accident a big point towards me being town?

"Doesn't X make me look town"

Did Reggie ever really even post anything to make the tide turn away from him? Just one vote to lynch him still!

"isn't Y still scummy"

Again these comments are weirdly broad and making pleas to other people to build your points for you, not actually giving a reason you are towny for that or jreggie is scummy.

Also I can go ahead and answer, you were almost accidentally lynched because people found you scummy and were voting you, multiple people didn't realize how close you were to lynch. Then what happens is people unvote, and during the fallout a great case on jreggie was made. This doesn't give you town points it means enough people still think you are scummy to lynch, enough people also think jreggie is scummy enough to lynch, and we are all happy taking as long as we need to discuss if those are indeed good options.

[J Reggie]

vote count.LL

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, J Reggie, mcmcsalot
J Reggie (4): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle

Not voting (2):, SpaceAnemone, pacovf

Also does it look to anyone else like we have a wagon on two members of the scum team bussing eachother, we have two players not voting but participating to allow for more discussion, and one scum player actively trying to avoid the thread/not join either of the wagons on his partners?

you are either scum going bold, or really overly optimistic/bold town. you know how hard it is to run up one scum wagon? you really think it's likely we are both scum? i do think reggie has a good chance of being scum, fwiw.

isn't how i already almost got lynch almost on accident a big point towards me being town?

This is super scummy. Also, not lynching Eevee because of the claim is just bad. Scum isn't going to want to kill him if he's town. Tracker is also really easy to fake claim.

[pacovf]

and during the fallout a great case on jreggie was made.

Wait, when did this happen?

[pacovf]

I still prefer an Eevee lynch, despite the claim, but I would also lynch J Reggie if that's what it comes down to.

[mcmcsalot]

and during the fallout a great case on jreggie was made.

Wait, when did this happen?

Oh my gosh, no I had forgotten it was for the super scummy hammer of silverspawn, not the vote for eevee that could have been the hammer.

unvote I have to reread more but I might be back to j reggie as the best choice

[LaLight]

Imo, mcmc tries to input some confusion in the game. He quite rules it in my opinion and doind hedgy stuff. Need to think when i wake up

[pacovf]

I do agree that these last few posts are scummy, but I don't want to shift my opinions too quickly, makes it easy for scum to manipulate me.

[Eevee]

Imo, mcmc tries to input some confusion in the game. He quite rules it in my opinion and doind hedgy stuff. Need to think when i wake up

Yeah, I'm getting the feeling he is inserting his opinion as the will of the people now.

[Eevee]

Many many people yet to comment after my claim still. Hoping people get on tonight still! I'll be on for ~3 hours still.

[Robz888]

Imo, mcmc tries to input some confusion in the game. He quite rules it in my opinion and doind hedgy stuff. Need to think when i wake up

Yeah, I'm getting the feeling he is inserting his opinion as the will of the people now.

Mcmc IS doing this but it's very townie IMO.

[Robz888]

So, we shouldn't lynch Eevee now, and this should be obvious, unless we are overwhelming certain he is scum. I still haven't re-read him but I'm just not picking up on all these signs other people are seeing him.

But anyway, we should give Eevee another night, even if we just straight up lynch him tomorrow without another word. There's at least a chance he's telling the truth about being a Tracker and it's too dangerous for scum to keep him alive and they solve our dilemma for us, or he gets some kind of night result that helps us, or can be confirmed, or is caught in some other manner, or his claim is rendered impossible because of the setup, or any number of other scenarios where leaving him alive was better. Particularly because J Reggie is just so super duper scummy and at least a good, or actually much better in my opinion, choice for lynch.

In the previous game, town made the decision to generally leave some claimed town PRs alive, even though their claims were scummy, and that was unquestionably the right move (it irritated me, as scum, that they were doing it).

[schadd]

Vote Count 2.6

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (2): Witherweaver, J Reggie
J Reggie (4): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle

Not voting (3): mcmcsalot, SpaceAnemone, pacovf

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends December 29, 10pm forum time, in 26 and a half hours.

[pacovf]

So, we shouldn't lynch Eevee now, and this should be obvious, unless we are overwhelming certain he is scum. I still haven't re-read him but I'm just not picking up on all these signs other people are seeing him.

But anyway, we should give Eevee another night, even if we just straight up lynch him tomorrow without another word. There's at least a chance he's telling the truth about being a Tracker and it's too dangerous for scum to keep him alive and they solve our dilemma for us, or he gets some kind of night result that helps us, or can be confirmed, or is caught in some other manner, or his claim is rendered impossible because of the setup, or any number of other scenarios where leaving him alive was better. Particularly because J Reggie is just so super duper scummy and at least a good, or actually much better in my opinion, choice for lynch.

In the previous game, town made the decision to generally leave some claimed town PRs alive, even though their claims were scummy, and that was unquestionably the right move (it irritated me, as scum, that they were doing it).

Well, game becomes significatively easier for town after the first scum has been lynched, so there is a big cost to not lynching a scummy claim.

Also, scum has a roleblocker, so Eevee's PR (assuming he is actually town) is completely useless. In fact, scum don't have to kill him at all, they can just keep roleblocking him until we lynch him.

Not to mention that Eevee's flip will be a lot more informative than J Reggie's.

[Robz888]

So, we shouldn't lynch Eevee now, and this should be obvious, unless we are overwhelming certain he is scum. I still haven't re-read him but I'm just not picking up on all these signs other people are seeing him.

But anyway, we should give Eevee another night, even if we just straight up lynch him tomorrow without another word. There's at least a chance he's telling the truth about being a Tracker and it's too dangerous for scum to keep him alive and they solve our dilemma for us, or he gets some kind of night result that helps us, or can be confirmed, or is caught in some other manner, or his claim is rendered impossible because of the setup, or any number of other scenarios where leaving him alive was better. Particularly because J Reggie is just so super duper scummy and at least a good, or actually much better in my opinion, choice for lynch.

In the previous game, town made the decision to generally leave some claimed town PRs alive, even though their claims were scummy, and that was unquestionably the right move (it irritated me, as scum, that they were doing it).

Well, game becomes significatively easier for town after the first scum has been lynched, so there is a big cost to not lynching a scummy claim.

Also, scum has a roleblocker, so Eevee's PR (assuming he is actually town) is completely useless. In fact, scum don't have to kill him at all, they can just keep roleblocking him until we lynch him.

Not to mention that Eevee's flip will be a lot more informative than J Reggie's.

If they're roleblocking Eevee, they're not roleblocking someone else.

The scum roleblocker could be blocked, jailed, watched, or tracked by town.

[pacovf]

Thats a very very hypothetical "could", but I guess, yeah.

[Witherweaver]

Unvote

Need to get back in.

[Witherweaver]

I'm not crazy about McMc's reaction here.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay so sorry for confusing people and misrepresenting the case on jreggie because I forgot where it had started. I have now reread and understand why I was confused. Since literally the beginning of the day 10 pages ago I mentioned I am happy to lynch both eevee and jreggie I think they are both very scummy. Since then I have been going back and forth as they/other people give thoughts and somewhere in there I forgot the beginning to the case on jreggie which was his hammer on silver spawn and his reaction to suspicion from me/robz as well as the low post content.

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

I agree, I am happy to switch from eevee to jreggie. It also helps that I think its likely that vote he made is against his scum partner in an attempt to be early on a scum lynch and turn that into some town cred.

As you can see this also slightly explains why I have spent a lot of the day making kinda silly scum teams because I am very confident in my two current scum reads, and many people seem to agree.

[mcmcsalot]

Imo, mcmc tries to input some confusion in the game. He quite rules it in my opinion and doind hedgy stuff. Need to think when i wake up

Just so you are aware lalight at the beginning of the day you agreed with me and felt the same way. We just both slightly suspect the other as a potential third scum...

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

Having Robz as the highest townread and agreeing on obv!scumminess vote: jreggie. Also i agree woth Eevee being scum and the third partner is either mcmc or Pacovf.

[LaLight]

Imo, mcmc tries to input some confusion in the game. He quite rules it in my opinion and doind hedgy stuff. Need to think when i wake up

Just so you are aware lalight at the beginning of the day you agreed with me and felt the same way. We just both slightly suspect the other as a potential third scum...

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

Having Robz as the highest townread and agreeing on obv!scumminess vote: jreggie. Also i agree woth Eevee being scum and the third partner is either mcmc or Pacovf.

Yes, I do remember that. Its just now you are behaving strange.

[mcmcsalot]

I'm actually curious what you think is strange about my behavior?

[LaLight]

I'm actually curious what you think is strange about my behavior?

Well, you were pushing Eevee lynch really hard for some pages and then out of the nowhere:

and during the fallout a great case on jreggie was made.

Wait, when did this happen?

Oh my gosh, no I had forgotten it was for the super scummy hammer of silverspawn, not the vote for eevee that could have been the hammer.

unvote I have to reread more but I might be back to j reggie as the best choice

Why does this make Eevee less scummy? How does this answer on questions you asked Eevee (about why he targeted gkrieg).
It was a strange turn.

[mcmcsalot]

Continuing to reread and I'm noticing we were basically at the point where  jreggie and eevee are both considered scummy with space/ww/myself/Reggie voting eevee and robz/lalight/teamlyle voting jreggie. Then space mentioned we may have accidentally hammered eevee, after that space and myself unvoted from eevee and waited to here from the mods. Once we heard we had not lynched eevee we continued to discuss if jreggie or eevee, or someone else, is the best idea.

I think with all that being said it not that strange for me to flip between eevee and jreggie frequently and to have confused the earlier reasons for finding jreggie scummy.

[Witherweaver]

I'm actually curious what you think is strange about my behavior?

Your argument for how Eevee should have claimed.. town claims tend not to be so careful.  Town acts by hunches and feelings most of the time; scum makes sure what they say (and claim) makes perfect sense, and tends to overprovide reasons. 

And, pushing and then unvoting seemed weird.  I'm not sure how scummy it is.  I considered you might be pushing Eevee because scum!you knows that it looks scummy to immediately believe a claim, so you go the other direction.

[mcmcsalot]

I'm actually curious what you think is strange about my behavior?

Well, you were pushing Eevee lynch really hard for some pages and then out of the nowhere:

and during the fallout a great case on jreggie was made.

Wait, when did this happen?

Oh my gosh, no I had forgotten it was for the super scummy hammer of silverspawn, not the vote for eevee that could have been the hammer.

unvote I have to reread more but I might be back to j reggie as the best choice

Why does this make Eevee less scummy? How does this answer on questions you asked Eevee (about why he targeted gkrieg).
It was a strange turn.

I see what you mean, I was sort of just really upset at myself for completely misconstruing part of the case on jreggie. Its a big difference remembering that jreggie super scummily hammered silverspawn and then reacted strangely to suspicion from robz and myself and made a scummy distraction post and voted eevee, instead of thinking it was all in the fallout from his possible accidental hammer of eevee that was the initial suspicion.

And again I think the behavior makes more sense if you remember I really do just want to lynch both these people.

[Witherweaver]

Oh, I just realized McMc wasn't talking to me there.

[mcmcsalot]

I'm actually curious what you think is strange about my behavior?

Your argument for how Eevee should have claimed.. town claims tend not to be so careful.  Town acts by hunches and feelings most of the time; scum makes sure what they say (and claim) makes perfect sense, and tends to overprovide reasons. 

And, pushing and then unvoting seemed weird.  I'm not sure how scummy it is.  I considered you might be pushing Eevee because scum!you knows that it looks scummy to immediately believe a claim, so you go the other direction.

Hmm I guess this is just a point of difference, I agree town acts by hunches but eevee isn't explaining what hunch he had that caused him to track gkriek. He just says good player, could have done the night kill, like that hunch describes half the people in the game. I also think this depiction of scum always having great reasons and overexplaining is a bit of a misconception. I think scum more often then not doesn't know what reads to fake, doesn't know what claim to make and how hard to push it, but that's not super important.

As for the pushing and unvoting I hope I explained, I reread briefly after paco questioned me and I saw I was wrong so I unvoted untill I could get to a computer and reread appropriately.

[Robz888]

I'm about to be driving for the next 10 hrs, so sorry to be mini VLA

[LaLight]

At the deadline I will be in bed. Last time I will be here 3-4 hours before.

[mcmcsalot]

vote count.LL

LaLight (1): Calamitas
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, J Reggie, mcmcsalot
J Reggie (4): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle

Not voting (2):, SpaceAnemone, pacovf

Since this, witherweaver and myself have unvoted. Based on my reread i really am, as I was at the beginning of the day, happy to lynch both eevee and jreggie, jreggie I think is the smarter choice by a small amount. I intend to hammer later on in the day.

[Witherweaver]

Hmm.. deadline is tonight?  I may not be around as well.

[pacovf]

I could lynch either, both are scummy. I don't think I will have much time later today, and I will be sleeping during the deadline.

[pacovf]

I don't know why there is no activity so close to deadline (for people in Europe, at least). If nothing is going on by the time I go to bed (in 3 to 4 hours), I will hammer. I would still prefer an Eevee lynch though. vote: eevee

[Witherweaver]

No one is interested in Calamitas?

[Witherweaver]

I don't really want to lynch Eevee after the recent back-and-forths around (and before) his claim.

I'm not sure about Reggie.. did he do this.. resigned to getting lynched thing before?  I think in general it doesn't come from scum as much. 

[Witherweaver]

Wouldn't I be more likely to be better prepared as scum? Scum is able to create perfect narratives, I'm bound by the truth.

Well I guess this undermines my thoughts along the same lines a bit. 

[Calamitas]

Paco, how likely do you think is it that we will be able to confirm eevee as town/scum later on?

[pacovf]

Not very.

[teamlyle]

Vote: J Reggie

[pacovf]

Well, that was the hammer. J Reggie, anything you want to add?

[pacovf]

Forum is being very moody. I might not be able to log in again in an hour. Hopefully that's not the case, but...

[LaLight]

Catching up. Forum is moody indeed

[LaLight]

Right.

My scumreads from scum to town are:

JR > Eevee >> Robz > WW >  Calamitas > Pacovf >> SA > mcmc

[Calamitas]

Why the strong townread on mcm?

[LaLight]

Why the strong townread on mcm?

Not really a strong townread. I don't have any strong townreads. Just the least scummy of all.

[Calamitas]

Why the strong townread on mcm?

Not really a strong townread. I don't have any strong townreads. Just the least scummy of all.

Which resembles a strong townread

[LaLight]

Why the strong townread on mcm?

Not really a strong townread. I don't have any strong townreads. Just the least scummy of all.

Which resembles a strong townread

Well, let's do this. If 1 is conf!scum and 0 is conf!town, then I have:

JR (0,75) > Eevee (0,7) >> Robz (0,6) > WW (0,55) >  Calamitas (0,5) > Pacovf (0,4) >> SA (0,25) > mcmc (0,2)

[Calamitas]

Why the strong townread on mcm?

Not really a strong townread. I don't have any strong townreads. Just the least scummy of all.

Which resembles a strong townread

Well, let's do this. If 1 is conf!scum and 0 is conf!town, then I have:

JR (0,75) > Eevee (0,7) >> Robz (0,6) > WW (0,55) >  Calamitas (0,5) > Pacovf (0,4) >> SA (0,25) > mcmc (0,2)

The sum must be 3 though
But I see what you are meaning.

[LaLight]

Why the strong townread on mcm?

Not really a strong townread. I don't have any strong townreads. Just the least scummy of all.

Which resembles a strong townread

Well, let's do this. If 1 is conf!scum and 0 is conf!town, then I have:

JR (0,75) > Eevee (0,7) >> Robz (0,6) > WW (0,55) >  Calamitas (0,5) > Pacovf (0,4) >> SA (0,25) > mcmc (0,2)

The sum must be 3 though
But I see what you are meaning.

That's a scale

[LaLight]

well, I'm off to bed. I hope to wake up to lynched scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

I'm around! Very sorry for the long absence today :-( In theory I'm all caught up with everything, and in practice I don't really know who I most want to lynch. Doing some more targeted re-reads now...

[SpaceAnemone]

No one is interested in Calamitas?

What's your particular case on him, other than derailing the latter parts of D1 and not really doing any reads at all?

[mcmcsalot]

Well, that was the hammer. J Reggie, anything you want to add?

Teamlyle was already voting for jreggie though I intend to hammer

[Witherweaver]

No one is interested in Calamitas?

What's your particular case on him, other than derailing the latter parts of D1 and not really doing any reads at all?

What I said before, basically.. posting a lot without actual scum hunting, trying to be 'helpful' with the teamlyle communication thing.  His vote has also been on an unlikely lynch for quite a while (LaLight); I'm not sure if he's provided much input at all about the two major wagons.

[Witherweaver]

I'm going to be leaving soon and be out most of the night; will be able to check sparingly but probably not post.

[SpaceAnemone]

My issue with the JR wagon is that I feel like he might just be too-scummy-to-be-scum. Though he said somewhere quite recently that he's usually pretty bad as scum, didn't he? Argh.. wasted lots of time trying to find where he said that, but what he said back in M87[/i] was that he was good in his first scum game and fell apart after that. Though now I look back at that game, he was scum there after all. Huh. So this is a meandering distraction, but I feel like linking to a JR scum game isn't a bad thing to do for the benefit of the returning oldies. (I died N1 in that one, so I wasn't following as much as I might have been in the later stages).

If he is town, the votes on his tail should at least be informative, especially with teamlyle on there too just now.

[SpaceAnemone]

My issue with the JR wagon is that I feel like he might just be too-scummy-to-be-scum. Though he said somewhere quite recently that he's usually pretty bad as scum, didn't he? Argh.. wasted lots of time trying to find where he said that, but what he said back in M87 was that he was good in his first scum game and fell apart after that. Though now I look back at that game, he was scum there after all. Huh. So this is a meandering distraction, but I feel like linking to a JR scum game isn't a bad thing to do for the benefit of the returning oldies. (I died N1 in that one, so I wasn't following as much as I might have been in the later stages).

If he is town, the votes on his tail should at least be informative, especially with teamlyle on there too just now.

Sorry for the link fail! Fixed now...

[SpaceAnemone]

@Calamitas, what are your thoughts on the way the Restless Spirit's presence helps/hinders wagon analysis? I'm interested in thoughts in general, but I'd also be interested in your thoughts on these particular wagons we have right now, and on why you're not interested in joining either of them.

[Witherweaver]

Space, what is your preference?

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas, what are your thoughts on the way the Restless Spirit's presence helps/hinders wagon analysis? I'm interested in thoughts in general, but I'd also be interested in your thoughts on these particular wagons we have right now, and on why you're not interested in joining either of them.

I don't think it does influence it very much. It is one vote less that has to be analyzed and I don't think it allows sheeping so it's all fine I think. Where should there be problems?

[Witherweaver]

@Calamitas, what are your thoughts on the way the Restless Spirit's presence helps/hinders wagon analysis? I'm interested in thoughts in general, but I'd also be interested in your thoughts on these particular wagons we have right now, and on why you're not interested in joining either of them.

I don't think it does influence it very much. It is one vote less that has to be analyzed and I don't think it allows sheeping so it's all fine I think. Where should there be problems?

Who do you prefer between Eevee and JReggie?

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas, what are your thoughts on the way the Restless Spirit's presence helps/hinders wagon analysis? I'm interested in thoughts in general, but I'd also be interested in your thoughts on these particular wagons we have right now, and on why you're not interested in joining either of them.

I don't think it does influence it very much. It is one vote less that has to be analyzed and I don't think it allows sheeping so it's all fine I think. Where should there be problems?

Who do you prefer between Eevee and JReggie?

Quite close, slight preference for reggie due to eevee being a potential PR

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas, what are your thoughts on the way the Restless Spirit's presence helps/hinders wagon analysis? I'm interested in thoughts in general, but I'd also be interested in your thoughts on these particular wagons we have right now, and on why you're not interested in joining either of them.

In regard to the latter:
Well, I still think LaLight and teamlyle are significantly better options and joining now would mean hammering. So I will reread before finally deciding on that one.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, what is your preference?

I'm dithering! I nearly answered this to say that I'll probably go with the JR wagon as the safer choice, but I seem to be arguing myself into an Eevee-voting sort of corner.

Did Eevee give any sort of indication D1 that he might be a PR, like the sort of breadcrumbing that's only actually visible in hindsight? I know scum can do that to set up a fake claim early on, but in this sort of game, where the roles are slightly dependent on each other, I would say that someone claiming a bread-crumbed role would be more believable than someone claiming without having anything to point at.

OTOH, someone who's drawn a town PR in both deals of this game (I'm assuming his question after the first deal was because that's the role he drew) might have been more likely to have come out with that comment early on about how this game has more PRs than M89.

Either way, I'm frustrated that there are almost certainly scum here who are being townread by most of us.

[pacovf]

Well, that was the hammer. J Reggie, anything you want to add?

Teamlyle was already voting for jreggie though I intend to hammer

I know, I was hoping for a reaction from J Reggie. Still prefer an Eevee lynch, but I am going to bed now. I won't hammer so that the Americans can keep talking, but please don't let the deadline pass without a lynch.

[Robz888]

I'm sort of here but doing a million things so won't be reliable.

I admit I soured on J Reggie lynch during my 10 hrs of driving today that I mostly spent thinking about this game. But I still won't lynch Eevee, it's stupid to lynch him given his claim.

If there are 5 for LaLight I will do it, no question. Too lazy to build case but basically he's totally unscrutinized and has barely even been voted for.

If we lynch J Reg and I don't survive to tomorrow (unlikely), don't forget LaLight

[Robz888]

La Light is also acti lurking

[Calamitas]

I'm sort of here but doing a million things so won't be reliable.

I admit I soured on J Reggie lynch during my 10 hrs of driving today that I mostly spent thinking about this game. But I still won't lynch Eevee, it's stupid to lynch him given his claim.

If there are 5 for LaLight I will do it, no question. Too lazy to build case but basically he's totally unscrutinized and has barely even been voted for.

If we lynch J Reg and I don't survive to tomorrow (unlikely), don't forget LaLight

Would be in on it!

[Robz888]

How much longer to deadline? We need three more ppl around and willing

[Calamitas]

How much longer to deadline? We need three more ppl around and willing

2:10 am for me so 3 hours at most.

[pacovf]

I would be against a Lalight lynch, I think he is town. I  don't know why you think he is actilurking though. He is not driving the game, but he's definitely here.

[pacovf]

Less than two hours to deadline.

[pacovf]

Ok, NOW I am off to bed. I hope to wake up to good news!

[Robz888]

I would be against a Lalight lynch, I think he is town. I  don't know why you think he is actilurking though. He is not driving the game, but he's definitely here.

Definition of acti lurking

[Calamitas]

I would be against a Lalight lynch, I think he is town. I  don't know why you think he is actilurking though. He is not driving the game, but he's definitely here.

I really don't like this stance on teamlyle, he seemed to have the same opinion as I did on game theory itself but didn't push in the slightest for the lynch.

[SpaceAnemone]

If there are 5 for LaLight I will do it, no question. Too lazy to build case but basically he's totally unscrutinized and has barely even been voted for.

I've re-read his D1, and yeah, I'd join that wagon to see if it goes anywhere. However, it's a bit of a risk taking bodies away from the main two wagons, since we do want to get town consensus on something. Who else is around?

[Robz888]

Well that's three. We need two more. J Reg should do it for self preservation, if he gets on.

[SpaceAnemone]

Well that's three. We need two more. J Reg should do it for self preservation, if he gets on.

I'm not sure I'll manage to stay awake till the deadline.. it's 0130 here and I've had too many early mornings lately having to be in sync with my family!

Vote: LaLight for now, since my vote wasn't anywhere useful and I'm a bit worried about drifting off to sleep..

[Robz888]

Sure, makes sense

[SpaceAnemone]

Do we still think mcmc intends to be online late in the day to hammer if it comes to it? If so, I'm so very tempted to drift off to sleep at this point, since chances are that between him, Calamitas (who seems to be staying awake even if he's a timezone ahead of me), and JR himself, there's enough voting potential there to make sure something goes through. And I'm super-sleepy, so chances are that the quality of my reads is going down quite a lot now...

[Calamitas]

Do we still think mcmc intends to be online late in the day to hammer if it comes to it? If so, I'm so very tempted to drift off to sleep at this point, since chances are that between him, Calamitas (who seems to be staying awake even if he's a timezone ahead of me), and JR himself, there's enough voting potential there to make sure something goes through. And I'm super-sleepy, so chances are that the quality of my reads is going down quite a lot now...

I will hammer if necessary, you can go sleep if you keep your vote where it is

[Witherweaver]

Vote: J Reggie

[Robz888]

Vote: J Reggie

Boooooo

[Calamitas]

Well, good night then I guess :/

[schadd]

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (2): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone
Eevee (2): J Reggie, pacovf
J Reggie (5): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver

Not voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch. Twilight starts now and ends at 9:31 am forum time tomorrow.

[mcmcsalot]

Vote: J Reggie

Boooooo

Why boo? Have you soured on the lynch that much?

[Robz888]

Vote: J Reggie

Very scummy not to even explain. It looks like you are too afraid to even address the growing LaLight wagon.

LL/WW/Pacovf if I don't survive! (Pacovf is more of a guess than the other two.)

[Robz888]

Vote: J Reggie

Boooooo

Why boo? Have you soured on the lynch that much?

It's more, I thought we were actually close to making LL happen, and WW just killed it, and he didn't even bother to give an opinion on the growing LL effort.

[Robz888]

If J Reggie is scum, which, you know, I still think definitely could be true, I almost think Eevee is too. I don't why, I just think it.

But I'm getting the feeling it's LaLight and WW just totally covered for him.

[mcmcsalot]

If J Reggie is scum, which, you know, I still think definitely could be true, I almost think Eevee is too. I don't why, I just think it.

But I'm getting the feeling it's LaLight and WW just totally covered for him.

Woah I don't think that witherweaver's vote was scummy at all, I was going to say something like "okay I guess it's that time vote jreggie".

I think the lalight case is very small in the grand scale and good for a third scum, but I still think hopefully jreggie is scum and eevee will be too.

Then its probably lalight or cal

[Robz888]

If J Reggie is scum, which, you know, I still think definitely could be true, I almost think Eevee is too. I don't why, I just think it.

But I'm getting the feeling it's LaLight and WW just totally covered for him.

Woah I don't think that witherweaver's vote was scummy at all, I was going to say something like "okay I guess it's that time vote jreggie".

I think the lalight case is very small in the grand scale and good for a third scum, but I still think hopefully jreggie is scum and eevee will be too.

Then its probably lalight or cal

But we still have time and we are discussing doing LaLight instead, you don't think it's scummy to swoop in and hammer J Reggie without even discussing LL? Paco at least addressed it. We weren't in danger of No Lynch, Calamitas had pledged to handle that.

[Robz888]

WW is also totally someone who has acti-lurked (if not lurked outright). He has done nothing since the very early Day 1 claimgate.

[Robz888]

I can't believe you don't see this, mcmc.

[Witherweaver]

I honestly would have done it earlier, but I didn't want people to not say anything about the lynch. 

[Witherweaver]

Weird reaction considering you were on the wagon and advocating his lynch.

[Robz888]

Weird reaction considering you were on the wagon and advocating his lynch.

Well, things change. You still haven't addressed my question: why did you sidestep the LL issue?

[Witherweaver]

Weird reaction considering you were on the wagon and advocating his lynch.

Well, things change. You still haven't addressed my question: why did you sidestep the LL issue?

Look at Calamitas and Space's reaction to Eevee vs. Reggie. Leaning Reggie but will not hammer, suddenly we introduce another wagon?  LL is scapegoat.

[Robz888]

Weird reaction considering you were on the wagon and advocating his lynch.

Well, things change. You still haven't addressed my question: why did you sidestep the LL issue?

Look at Calamitas and Space's reaction to Eevee vs. Reggie. Leaning Reggie but will not hammer, suddenly we introduce another wagon?  LL is scapegoat.

But Calamitas said he would hammer J Reggie if we couldn't get LL going, and I was the one who tried to get LL going, not Cal or SA.

[Witherweaver]

Weird reaction considering you were on the wagon and advocating his lynch.

Well, things change. You still haven't addressed my question: why did you sidestep the LL issue?

Look at Calamitas and Space's reaction to Eevee vs. Reggie. Leaning Reggie but will not hammer, suddenly we introduce another wagon?  LL is scapegoat.

But Calamitas said he would hammer J Reggie if we couldn't get LL going, and I was the one who tried to get LL going, not Cal or SA.

Cal was on LL and Space moved.  There was talk there before you came back.

[Witherweaver]

And scum!Cal would say that about partner!Reggie.

[mcmcsalot]

If J Reggie is scum, which, you know, I still think definitely could be true, I almost think Eevee is too. I don't why, I just think it.

But I'm getting the feeling it's LaLight and WW just totally covered for him.

Woah I don't think that witherweaver's vote was scummy at all, I was going to say something like "okay I guess it's that time vote jreggie".

I think the lalight case is very small in the grand scale and good for a third scum, but I still think hopefully jreggie is scum and eevee will be too.

Then its probably lalight or cal

But we still have time and we are discussing doing LaLight instead, you don't think it's scummy to swoop in and hammer J Reggie without even discussing LL? Paco at least addressed it. We weren't in danger of No Lynch, Calamitas had pledged to handle that.

Okay so I understand why you feel this way. It is a valid point and if I was just making my case against eevee I would react similarly. But I don't really think it is scummy, really it was super close o deadline and honestly ask yourself was your read on lalight really stronger than the one on jreggie.

[LaLight]

Well, maybe this is OMGUS or whatever, but thus was scummy for Robz. Knowing I would have any chance for claiming, builing a case on me which is literally "acti-lurking" and making me look scum because WW hammered? No way that was town-motivated

[LaLight]

Well, really, this would be such a poor play on WW side. He knew about Calamitas having pledged to hammer and even if I am scum, I can't be Bulletproof Godfather Roleblocker-of-all-trades with Voting Powers That Can Win The Game For Scum to keep me alive at all costs.

[J Reggie]

Not the worst thing. Please catch Eevee and lalight and the third one, maybe Witherweaver. Sorry for the poor play.

[LaLight]

In fact, you, Robz, knowing that you will need one mislynch to win, pushing now me and WW. I'd say this makes us practically ICs now and you the scummiest one!

[LaLight]

Seeds of doubt

Seeds of doubt everywhere

[pacovf]

That was an interesting lynch. I agree with everything WW said, although it's also a convenient excuse for scum to save his partner.

I would be against a Lalight lynch, I think he is town. I  don't know why you think he is actilurking though. He is not driving the game, but he's definitely here.

Definition of acti lurking

No! You can be active town without leading town. As long as your reads are clear and you are reacting to events as they happen, you are active.

[LaLight]

That was an interesting lynch. I agree with everything WW said, although it's also a convenient excuse for scum to save his partner.

I would be against a Lalight lynch, I think he is town. I  don't know why you think he is actilurking though. He is not driving the game, but he's definitely here.

Definition of acti lurking

No! You can be active town without leading town. As long as your reads are clear and you are reacting to events as they happen, you are active.

What about what I said?

[pacovf]

You've said a lot of things, can you be more specific?

Also, VLA for 8 hours or so.

[LaLight]

You've said a lot of things, can you be more specific?

Also, VLA for 8 hours or so.

About Robz preparing a mislynch at most.

[Eevee]

I think J Reggie was a better lynch than jumping to LL without rereads or a real case. at least everyone is on record about this.

[pacovf]

You've said a lot of things, can you be more specific?

Also, VLA for 8 hours or so.

About Robz preparing a mislynch at most.

Possible, but at this point I prefer waiting for the flips and doing a reread.

[LaLight]

You've said a lot of things, can you be more specific?

Also, VLA for 8 hours or so.

About Robz preparing a mislynch at most.

Possible, but at this point I prefer waiting for the flips and doing a reread.

k, sure

[pacovf]

Didnt you have a very strong townread on Robz, by the way?

[LaLight]

Didnt you have a very strong townread on Robz, by the way?

I did, but this was too scummy. My townread on Robz is still there (I mean that post that was towning him), but now I am not so sure.

[pacovf]

If he had done this on, say, Calamitas instead of you, would you think the same?

[LaLight]

If he had done this on, say, Calamitas instead of you, would you think the same?

Well, of course (I even thought about it)

But the thing is that the fact he did this on me is more reliable for me personally cause I know I am town for 100%, and do not know that about Calamitas. Still, that would be very scummy.

[faust]

Flavor to come.

J Reggie has been lynched! They were Causabon (from Umberto Eco's Foucault's Pendulum), the Vanilla Townie!

Night 2 starts now and lasts until Jan 2, 10 am forum time.

Thread locked!

[faust]

All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in their own way. The Oblonskys wer in turmoil - again. The news had just reached them that the Stepan Arkadyevich's sister Anna had been found dead at a railway station. The distraught police officer said that the sign pointed to a suicide. This was not something Stepan could believe. Some maleficent individual was responsible, he was sure. And he would find them in due time.

pacovf has been killed in the night! They were Anna Karenina (from Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina), the Jailkeeper!

Day 3 starts!

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (8 ): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone, LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver, mcmcsalot

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 3 ends Jan 9 at 1 pm forum time.

[Witherweaver]

Eevee, result?

[SpaceAnemone]

Take care with voting, everyone. We have 5 townie people who can vote, four of whom can reasonably be voted for, and scum could hammer all by themselves off the back of a single town-on-town vote :-(

[Robz888]

Yikes, yikes, yikes. Paranoia stage of the game. 50% of remaining players are scum!

[Robz888]

So I still have a really bad feeling about WW coming in and keeping J Reg as the lynch, rather than LL. Which points me toward both of them being scum.

Then there's Eevee, who is still around somehow.

If all three were scum (don't know if they really fit together), that would leave mcmc, Calamitas, and Space as the townies.

[Robz888]

Also, we lost the Jailkeeper, we have a 1-shot Restless Spirit, a claimed Tracker... I'm usually skeptical of mass claims but it seems like now might be the time, yes?

[Robz888]

We don't have anyone to direct it, unfortunately. No confirmed townies.

[Robz888]

Wait! Teamlyle could do it, maybe? If he votes for people in the order he wants them to claim. Could scum quickhammer though?

[Calamitas]

First we want to have eeves result

[Robz888]

First we want to have eeves result

Well, yes, of course.

[SpaceAnemone]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

[SpaceAnemone]

Wait! Teamlyle could do it, maybe? If he votes for people in the order he wants them to claim. Could scum quickhammer though?

Isn't it way too risky for teamlyle to vote at all till we're significantly further into the day, and have had a chance to discuss more ideas on the basis of JR and Paco's flips?

[Robz888]

Wait! Teamlyle could do it, maybe? If he votes for people in the order he wants them to claim. Could scum quickhammer though?

Isn't it way too risky for teamlyle to vote at all till we're significantly further into the day, and have had a chance to discuss more ideas on the basis of JR and Paco's flips?

Well yes we should discuss more ideas first, but one of the ideas we should discuss is massclaiming, and I think that would be the way to do it. But teamlyle would have to vote and unvote real quickly. I think he could do that before scum quickhammered though. We could work it out. But yes, he should not vote for anyone until we have it nailed down if we're even doing this.

[SpaceAnemone]

Wait! Teamlyle could do it, maybe? If he votes for people in the order he wants them to claim. Could scum quickhammer though?

Isn't it way too risky for teamlyle to vote at all till we're significantly further into the day, and have had a chance to discuss more ideas on the basis of JR and Paco's flips?

Well yes we should discuss more ideas first, but one of the ideas we should discuss is massclaiming, and I think that would be the way to do it. But teamlyle would have to vote and unvote real quickly. I think he could do that before scum quickhammered though. We could work it out. But yes, he should not vote for anyone until we have it nailed down if we're even doing this.

Let's concentrate on the "if we're even doing this" part first. Distracting from that discussion by skipping straight onto the next step of how to include teamlyle is a little bit scummy-looking, especially when you know there are at least two people here who like shiny theory and mechanisms discussions...

[Robz888]

Wait! Teamlyle could do it, maybe? If he votes for people in the order he wants them to claim. Could scum quickhammer though?

Isn't it way too risky for teamlyle to vote at all till we're significantly further into the day, and have had a chance to discuss more ideas on the basis of JR and Paco's flips?

Well yes we should discuss more ideas first, but one of the ideas we should discuss is massclaiming, and I think that would be the way to do it. But teamlyle would have to vote and unvote real quickly. I think he could do that before scum quickhammered though. We could work it out. But yes, he should not vote for anyone until we have it nailed down if we're even doing this.

Let's concentrate on the "if we're even doing this" part first. Distracting from that discussion by skipping straight onto the next step of how to include teamlyle is a little bit scummy-looking, especially when you know there are at least two people here who like shiny theory and mechanisms discussions...

I agree that we should concentrate on the "are we even doing this" part, but "is it feasible for an IC to direct it" is an important part of the "should we even do this" conversation.

[Eevee]

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

[Robz888]

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

I thought you were a Tracker?

[SpaceAnemone]

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

I thought you were a Tracker?

Well, he's got to be scum now. This would be a good point to work out who his accomplices are.

Plus, that explains why he lived through the night as a claimed tracker. Though I still don't see what Paco did to give himself away :-(

[Robz888]

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

I thought you were a Tracker?

Well, he's got to be scum now. This would be a good point to work out who his accomplices are.

Plus, that explains why he lived through the night as a claimed tracker. Though I still don't see what Paco did to give himself away :-(

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

[SpaceAnemone]

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

[Robz888]

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

[Robz888]

Wait, let's stop this for now.

Eevee, explain yourself further.

[mcmcsalot]

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

So I think at this point eevee is obviously scum, robz preventing me from getting the eevee lynch through by making the jreggie case seem better an then trying to get a lalight case going when the jreggie one stalled and people started considering eevee again is really suspicious from my perspective. i think scum!spaceanemonie and scum!witherweaver just don't work with a town jreggie and scum partner eevee.

I think it is very likely robz/eevee/lalight or robz/eevee/cal.

[Witherweaver]

I think I'm for lynching Eevee.

[mcmcsalot]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (2): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone
Eevee (2): J Reggie, pacovf
J Reggie (5): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver

Not voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch. Twilight starts now and ends at 9:31 am forum time tomorrow.

okay well wagons actually definitely point toward lalight being scum. that makes me much less confident on what I think robz is but more confident we can lynch eevee followed by lalight and figure out where to go from there.

[Robz888]

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

So I think at this point eevee is obviously scum, robz preventing me from getting the eevee lynch through by making the jreggie case seem better an then trying to get a lalight case going when the jreggie one stalled and people started considering eevee again is really suspicious from my perspective. i think scum!spaceanemonie and scum!witherweaver just don't work with a town jreggie and scum partner eevee.

I think it is very likely robz/eevee/lalight or robz/eevee/cal.

If Eevee is scum--and I mean, yeah, he probably is--I think you are his most likely partner. You tunneled him from the beginning of the game, never wavering, but also never actually getting him lynched, and you detoured to support other lynches. That's excellent scum play.

[Robz888]

okay well wagons actually definitely point toward lalight being scum. that makes me much less confident on what I think robz is but more confident we can lynch eevee followed by lalight and figure out where to go from there.

What do you mean by that?

[Witherweaver]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

[Robz888]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

Why not? What's wrong about my reasoning?

[Witherweaver]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

Why not? What's wrong about my reasoning?

Just from memory on how they interacted and went after another.  Seemed the non-partnery, hard to fake kind.

[Robz888]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

Why not? What's wrong about my reasoning?

Just from memory on how they interacted and went after another.  Seemed the non-partnery, hard to fake kind.

Fair enough. Or you're covering for them.

Which would mean LL, Space, and Calamitas are my townies? This is going to be fun.

[Witherweaver]

... it's very quiet here.

[Calamitas]

... it's very quiet here.

All waiting for eever I guess

[teamlyle]

Vote: Witherweaver

[teamlyle]

unvote

[teamlyle]

Unvote

[Calamitas]

Guys, wait for eevee before doing anything else.

[LaLight]

I'm pretty sure about Eevee being scum. Also, Robz still is suspicious. Idk, who's the third one.

[SpaceAnemone]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

[Calamitas]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

Depends on his answer, but quite high right now. Maybe 0.8 or so.

[Witherweaver]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

I think this is either not productive, or it's rolefishing.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: eevee

He's not coming back to explain I don't think. He is caught scum. I know a town on town vote loses and I'm town but I can't see me not lynching eevee and I need this to move along.

[Witherweaver]

I would give him until tonight.

[Calamitas]

Yep

[SpaceAnemone]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

I think this is either not productive, or it's rolefishing.

You don't find it suspicious that the person who was so consumed earlier in the game with theory stuff isn't immediately interested in new evidence, and didn't have an answer for my question?

The number he's given, while correct to 1 significant figure as a prior, hides a fair bit in the rounding. On known roles alone, the chance of there not actually being a tracker in the game is a bit over 0.84. I'd be shocked if town!Calamitas hadn't worked that out, so what would town!Calamitas's motive for downplaying Eevee's scumminess be?

Also, the 0.84 figure is just a prior, and doesn't take into account any of Eevee's scummy behaviour.. so Calamitas's real answer should almost certainly have been higher, even with rounding to 1sf. He sort of covers for this when saying that he wants to hear Eevee's answer, but I'm still quite suspicious anyway.

[Witherweaver]

Well, you have a point that he might argue that way, yes.

[mcmcsalot]

I also think space makes a good point but I understand where ww is coming from thinking the question was unproductive/kinda rolefishy.

Interactions like this where you both seem to be looking for the correct answers and being cautious while still making your points clear is why I have developed strong town reads on both of you as the game has progressed.

[mcmcsalot]

I'm pretty confident there are 2 scum among robz/lalight/calamitus.

Also I feel like the sheer fact that I haven't been nightkilled even though I have recieved very little suspicion and have been pushing for the lynch of scum!eevee since day one is more evidence that robz is scum and believes he can manipulate me. Scum!robz is much more likely to have done that then a scum team of eevee/lalight/cal. In fact if they knew both me and robz were town and agreeing and I'm pushing eevee, I feel like they would totally nightkilled me.

[Witherweaver]

Last time I was scum with Robz (XMen, like my third game ever), he explicitly didn't NK you for exactly that reason.

[Witherweaver]

Oh, not XMen, it was that other one.

[Calamitas]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

I think this is either not productive, or it's rolefishing.

You don't find it suspicious that the person who was so consumed earlier in the game with theory stuff isn't immediately interested in new evidence, and didn't have an answer for my question?

The number he's given, while correct to 1 significant figure as a prior, hides a fair bit in the rounding. On known roles alone, the chance of there not actually being a tracker in the game is a bit over 0.84. I'd be shocked if town!Calamitas hadn't worked that out, so what would town!Calamitas's motive for downplaying Eevee's scumminess be?

Also, the 0.84 figure is just a prior, and doesn't take into account any of Eevee's scummy behaviour.. so Calamitas's real answer should almost certainly have been higher, even with rounding to 1sf. He sort of covers for this when saying that he wants to hear Eevee's answer, but I'm still quite suspicious anyway.

Actually I hadn't resimulated when I made that answer
But the the prior of eevee being scum (meaning not the actual prior but the probability before taking into account his scummy behaviour) is lower than the probability of having a tracker existing (because scum!eevee is significantly less likely to claim Tracker than tracker!eevee), so I'm actually sticking to something between 0.8 and 0.9 (my simulator gives me around 0.75 as chance for having a tracker).
But either way, I'm not more likely to work with inaccurate numbers as scum than as town here so this is not alignment indicative :-D

[LaLight]

what is the case on me btw? People continue saying I'm scummy, why?

[Robz888]

I'm pretty confident there are 2 scum among robz/lalight/calamitus.

Also I feel like the sheer fact that I haven't been nightkilled even though I have recieved very little suspicion and have been pushing for the lynch of scum!eevee since day one is more evidence that robz is scum and believes he can manipulate me. Scum!robz is much more likely to have done that then a scum team of eevee/lalight/cal. In fact if they knew both me and robz were town and agreeing and I'm pushing eevee, I feel like they would totally nightkilled me.

This is correct, which unfortunately means I think there's pretty much no way you're not scum.

[Robz888]

By the way I think he can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

[Robz888]

By the way I think he we can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

[Robz888]

By the way I think he we can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

[SpaceAnemone]

Actually I hadn't resimulated when I made that answer
But the the prior of eevee being scum (meaning not the actual prior but the probability before taking into account his scummy behaviour) is lower than the probability of having a tracker existing (because scum!eevee is significantly less likely to claim Tracker than tracker!eevee), so I'm actually sticking to something between 0.8 and 0.9 (my simulator gives me around 0.75 as chance for having a tracker).
But either way, I'm not more likely to work with inaccurate numbers as scum than as town here so this is not alignment indicative :-D

I think scum!Calamitas on the same team as scum!Eevee would not need to work with those numbers anyway, since scum!Calamitas would already have known that the tracker claim was a lie, so why bother with probabilities? That's the part I find to be somewhat indicative of alignment.

[mcmcsalot]

By the way I think he can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

Anyone else see what I see?

Debating making another post about my interactions with eevee but decided that would look to scummy and you should make a comment about eevee directed to everyone.

Too bad you couldn't think of a comment that added anything to the discussion and still had how you are going to make this a me vs you thing on your mind.

[Witherweaver]

By the way I think he can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

Anyone else see what I see?

Debating making another post about my interactions with eevee but decided that would look to scummy and you should make a comment about eevee directed to everyone.

Too bad you couldn't think of a comment that added anything to the discussion and still had how you are going to make this a me vs you thing on your mind.

What do you see?

[mcmcsalot]

@witherweaver

By the way I think he we can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

I see that this post and slip looks like scum!robz comes into the thread and sees I have caught on to the fact he is scum, he makes a post about how he's sure I am scum and then is thinking about making another post about how my interaction with eevee make me scum but he decides that will look to scummy and changes his mind to make a post about how we all should treat eevee.

This explains why the post adds zero input to our current discussion and he slipped up on his pronoun because he changed his mind about what to say mid post.

It's not a like a huge red flag or anything I just think it actually looks pretty scummy if you think of it that way.

[Witherweaver]

I don't think it makes much sense with 'he' in there.

[Robz888]

It was just a typo.

[Robz888]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

[Robz888]

^Post directed at mcmc

[mcmcsalot]

I don't think it makes much sense with 'he' in there.

I think it's a silly argument anyway so it's not really important it's more of an interesting thought.

But for clarity, I think the "he" in robz comment refers to me. He made one post saying there is pretty much no way I am not scum and then I think went to make a post like he is also treating eevee as confirmed scum now because blah blah blah. then I think he decided it would look scummy to go that hard at me and that he should address everyone so he changed the post to we can pretty much treat eevee as scum but forgot to say we instead of he.

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

[Robz888]

I don't think it makes much sense with 'he' in there.

I think it's a silly argument anyway so it's not really important it's more of an interesting thought.

But for clarity, I think the "he" in robz comment refers to me. He made one post saying there is pretty much no way I am not scum and then I think went to make a post like he is also treating eevee as confirmed scum now because blah blah blah. then I think he decided it would look scummy to go that hard at me and that he should address everyone so he changed the post to we can pretty much treat eevee as scum but forgot to say we instead of he.

My brain spat out "he" instead of "we" because I had just written about you in a previous post, yes.

[Robz888]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

[mcmcsalot]

what is the case on me btw? People continue saying I'm scummy, why?

I don't think this is happening? Can you point out where this is happening? I have said quite often I think you could be scum, which is due to my town reads on WW and spaceanemone.

If you want me to make a case of why I think you should perhaps be the third lynch (after eevee/robz) it would be because the late wagon on you yesterday was started by robz and I think it's possible robz noticed the jreggie wagon had stalled out quite a bit, people were pushing eevee and I think robz knew he would lose me if it became obvious eevee was scum so he formed a wagon on you going if it did go through he would have been viewed as towny and could have gotten further down the line. Though this is just a theory, luckily we have lots of time before we have to decide if you are scum.

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

So how come you only have a scum read on me now. You have considered me extremely and agreed vaguely with me eevee read most of the game, you have just always been pitching "better" lynches but never really disagreeing with me. The only time you were suspicious of me was when I became suspicious of you but you immediately followed up with a statement saying that that was a silly thought and you should bury it. And now, once I am practically confirmed as being right you flip to thinking I am definitely scum.

This is mainly a post for the other townies since we all have a better understanding of our own interactions with people and why I really feel like robz is scum.

[Robz888]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

So how come you only have a scum read on me now. You have considered me extremely and agreed vaguely with me eevee read most of the game, you have just always been pitching "better" lynches but never really disagreeing with me. The only time you were suspicious of me was when I became suspicious of you but you immediately followed up with a statement saying that that was a silly thought and you should bury it. And now, once I am practically confirmed as being right you flip to thinking I am definitely scum.

This is mainly a post for the other townies since we all have a better understanding of our own interactions with people and why I really feel like robz is scum.

What's changed is that we pretty much know Eevee is scum. You wrongly tunneling town Eevee all game? Sure, town mcmc would do that. You calling Eevee correctly right off the bat and barely wavering (while also supporting mislynches and not actually getting Eevee lynched)? That seems scummier.

Also there are just very few people left now, 50% of everyone is scum.

Also also... I don't know, maybe you're not scum!

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

So how come you only have a scum read on me now. You have considered me extremely and agreed vaguely with me eevee read most of the game, you have just always been pitching "better" lynches but never really disagreeing with me. The only time you were suspicious of me was when I became suspicious of you but you immediately followed up with a statement saying that that was a silly thought and you should bury it. And now, once I am practically confirmed as being right you flip to thinking I am definitely scum.

This is mainly a post for the other townies since we all have a better understanding of our own interactions with people and why I really feel like robz is scum.

What's changed is that we pretty much know Eevee is scum. You wrongly tunneling town Eevee all game? Sure, town mcmc would do that. You calling Eevee correctly right off the bat and barely wavering (while also supporting mislynches and not actually getting Eevee lynched)? That seems scummier.

Also there are just very few people left now, 50% of everyone is scum.

Also also... I don't know, maybe you're not scum!

You keep saying I maintained a scum read on eevee while supporting mislynches but that's just wrong. I didnt support the silverspawn lynch, and I supported the jreggie lynch based largely off your arguments for why jreggie was a better option than eevee.

[Witherweaver]

I'm ready to vote Eevee.  Is there anything else to add?

[Robz888]

Me too, I guess the question is whether we have to talk about anything else.

[Robz888]

Probably not, actually. Further discussion probably just helps scum, and we'll have more info tomorrow.

Vote: Eevee

[Calamitas]

How should more discussion be in the benefit of scum?

[Robz888]

How should more discussion be in the benefit of scum?

It probably doesn't, but cluing them in to PRs would be the main worry.

[schadd]

Vote Count 3.1

Not Voting (6): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone, LaLight, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver
Eevee (2): Robz888, mcmcsalot

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 3 ends Jan 9 at 1 pm forum time.

[Calamitas]

prod: eevee

[Robz888]

He was online earlier and didn't post. We're not going to hear from him again, I don't think.

[Calamitas]

He was online earlier and didn't post. We're not going to hear from him again, I don't think.

yeah, one might try though

[LaLight]

Vote: Eevee L-1

I'm thinking mcmc is town, so there would be quickhammer up to this time.

[SpaceAnemone]

Vote: Eevee L-1

I'm thinking mcmc is town, so there would be quickhammer up to this time.

You mean if Eevee were town after all? Probably. Well, I agree that mcmc and Robz certainly don't appear to be on the same faction, so there's clearly one non-scum on Eevee's tail already. I think it would be riskier to have that kind of scum-on-scum fall-out now with Robz and mcmc than it would have been back when mcmc and Eevee were doing it in the early game, though.

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Eevee

[LaLight]

Vote: Eevee

You're scum and you won?

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Eevee

You're scum and you won?

I am not.  I'm town and I hammered Eevee.

[LaLight]

Vote: Eevee

You're scum and you won?

I am not.  I'm town and I hammered Eevee.

Are you trolling now?

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Eevee

You're scum and you won?

I am not.  I'm town and I hammered Eevee.

Are you trolling now?

Are you?

[LaLight]

Vote: Eevee

You're scum and you won?

I am not.  I'm town and I hammered Eevee.

Are you trolling now?

Are you?

No. Your hammer looks like quick one.

[Eevee]

Oopsieeee.

Go team! Avenge me!

[faust]

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Eevee (4): Robz888, mcmcsalot, LaLight, Witherweaver

Not Voting (4): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch. Twilight ends around 7:30 pm forum time.

[mcmcsalot]

@lalight (quotes are annoying)

How did witherweavers hammer look quick to you? I think it was rather towny, your vote looked scummier in my opinion. Especially because it seems like you were still thinking eevee might be town despite never arguing against lynching eevee.

[LaLight]

@lalight (quotes are annoying)

How did witherweavers hammer look quick to you? I think it was rather towny, your vote looked scummier in my opinion. Especially because it seems like you were still thinking eevee might be town despite never arguing against lynching eevee.

I was not thinking Eevee is townie after he confused Tracker and Watcher. Though looked like WW came online and hammered quickly.

Why did my vote look scummier?

[mcmcsalot]

In my opinion this day went really really well for town. We needed to lynch scum and we wanted to do it without using teamlyles vote which we did.

I feel like eevee/robz really fumbled the day due to the messed up claim and robz trying too hard to save the scum team via manipulating me.

The fact that we had really good discussion I think comes from the fact that we had active and intelligent townies amount me/ww/space stimulating discussion.

Lalaight has continued to look scummy today and looks really bad from wagon analysis but is helping lynch eevee which scum wouldn't want to do.

Then you have cal who if I remember correctly has said pretty much nothing the whole day, his request to prod eevee was pretty silly and useless which in turn means scummy because today scum was in a weird position not wanting to help get eevee lynched but also not wanting to out themselves so making contributions that did nothing are scummy.

[LaLight]

In my opinion this day went really really well for town. We needed to lynch scum and we wanted to do it without using teamlyles vote which we did.

I feel like eevee/robz really fumbled the day due to the messed up claim and robz trying too hard to save the scum team via manipulating me.

The fact that we had really good discussion I think comes from the fact that we had active and intelligent townies amount me/ww/space stimulating discussion.

Lalaight has continued to look scummy today and looks really bad from wagon analysis but is helping lynch eevee which scum wouldn't want to do.

Then you have cal who if I remember correctly has said pretty much nothing the whole day, his request to prod eevee was pretty silly and useless which in turn means scummy because today scum was in a weird position not wanting to help get eevee lynched but also not wanting to out themselves so making contributions that did nothing are scummy.

Eevee/Robz/Calamitas team?

[Calamitas]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

[mcmcsalot]

@lalight (quotes are annoying)

How did witherweavers hammer look quick to you? I think it was rather towny, your vote looked scummier in my opinion. Especially because it seems like you were still thinking eevee might be town despite never arguing against lynching eevee.

I was not thinking Eevee is townie after he confused Tracker and Watcher. Though looked like WW came online and hammered quickly.

Why did my vote look scummier?

Because your vote seemed to be over explained. We pretty much new eevee was scum based on the slip, but you still felt the need to mention that you feel safe voting because if I was scum and eevee town there would have been a quickhammer by now.

I think spaceanemone felt the same way as me since they responded to your vote by pointing out that yes you are making a correct statement but it's kind of an obvious one due to me/robz/eevee's interactions all game.

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

[Calamitas]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

That's not ludicrous, I have seen something like that before. The idea that eevee confuses tracker and watcher to end the day with an "ooooopps" statement is ludicrous.

[SpaceAnemone]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

Sure, but did you read Covert Affairs Mafia? The plot Calamitas and Robz pulled off was very smart, and I say that as the person left at lylo who ended up making the wrong call because of it :-P

Anyway, I still think Calamitas's statement kind of points towards Robz and Eevee being scum, and Robz himself is oddly silent at the moment. Or is busy plotting over in the scum QT, of course...

[mcmcsalot]

I think the scum team is definitely either eevee/robz/cal or eevee/robz/lalight

If I die in the night tonight look at how everyone left in the game reacted to my pushing eevee earlier in the game.

[SpaceAnemone]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

That's not ludicrous, I have seen something like that before. The idea that eevee confuses tracker and watcher to end the day with an "ooooopps" statement is ludicrous.

I've been scum with Eevee, and he actually did seem prone to getting a little flustered. I can easily read him as genuine here.

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

That's not ludicrous, I have seen something like that before. The idea that eevee confuses tracker and watcher to end the day with an "ooooopps" statement is ludicrous.

So eevee is definitely scum. So after accidentally confusing tracker/watcher, or confusing which one he claimed, he realized he was caught and never posted again. Once he was prodded and the day completely ended he posted oooooopps because he made a big ooopsie...why is the ludicrous, it's exactly what I would do if I made that mistake. Well I may have posted a more angry or depressed sounding oops but eevee is a pretty positive/happy person so this makes perfect sense.

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

Sure, but did you read Covert Affairs Mafia? The plot Calamitas and Robz pulled off was very smart, and I say that as the person left at lylo who ended up making the wrong call because of it :-P

Anyway, I still think Calamitas's statement kind of points towards Robz and Eevee being scum, and Robz himself is oddly silent at the moment. Or is busy plotting over in the scum QT, of course...

I haven't read that but I bet you anything robz and cal were not one town on town vote away from winning the game...

[Calamitas]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

Sure, but did you read Covert Affairs Mafia? The plot Calamitas and Robz pulled off was very smart, and I say that as the person left at lylo who ended up making the wrong call because of it :-P

Anyway, I still think Calamitas's statement kind of points towards Robz and Eevee being scum, and Robz himself is oddly silent at the moment. Or is busy plotting over in the scum QT, of course...

I haven't read that but I bet you anything robz and cal were not one town on town vote away from winning the game...

We were. 3 townies versus 2 scums, I sacrificed myself with a ridiculous incriminating statement to ensure to reach a LyLo where robz is the least suspicious to ensure a (pretty much) guaranteed win.
The thing is that in those scenarios scum needs one wrong vote of a townie at any given point, they don't need it right then. So they might plot to ensure that that vote happens, how many scum die up until that point doesn't matter.

[Robz888]

Eevee is too good to screw this up, there is some kind of plot going on with certainty. I guess scum has seen a path to victory they reach by assuring eevee gets lynched today, it reminds me of the thing robz and I pulled in M88.

Umm do you know how outrageous it sounds for a scum team that only needs ONE more mislynch, only needs ONE towny to vote for a town player, to contrive a fake scumslip plan that would get one of there own lynched. That's ludicrous.

Sure, but did you read Covert Affairs Mafia? The plot Calamitas and Robz pulled off was very smart, and I say that as the person left at lylo who ended up making the wrong call because of it :-P

Anyway, I still think Calamitas's statement kind of points towards Robz and Eevee being scum, and Robz himself is oddly silent at the moment. Or is busy plotting over in the scum QT, of course...

I haven't read that but I bet you anything robz and cal were not one town on town vote away from winning the game...

We were. 3 townies versus 2 scums, I sacrificed myself with a ridiculous incriminating statement to ensure to reach a LyLo where robz is the least suspicious to ensure a (pretty much) guaranteed win.
The thing is that in those scenarios scum needs one wrong vote of a townie at any given point, they don't need it right then. So they might plot to ensure that that vote happens, how many scum die up until that point doesn't matter.

Calamitas is correct, that's what happened. Don't know if it's what's happening here. Eevee deliberately throwing himself under the bus in order to get me mislynched on the subsequent day seems pretty smart though!

Space, Calamitas, and LaLight were all in 88 and would have remember how well it worked out for scum.

[Witherweaver]

I think the simpler answers are usually the better ones.

[Robz888]

I think the simpler answers are usually the better ones.

What is the simple answer?

[mcmcsalot]

I think the simpler answers are usually the better ones.

What is the simple answer?

Eevee messed up.

[Witherweaver]

Yeah.

[Calamitas]

This doesn't make any sense at all. I'm pretty certain scum has discussed eevee's claim at night and there is no way this would have come out of it.

[mcmcsalot]

This doesn't make any sense at all. I'm pretty certain scum has discussed eevee's claim at night and there is no way this would have come out of it.

ugh cal this kinda stuff is really out there and without a conclusion its also not a helpful statement for town. You are saying the evidence wehave MUST

[mcmcsalot]

This doesn't make any sense at all. I'm pretty certain scum has discussed eevee's claim at night and there is no way this would have come out of it.

ugh cal this kinda stuff is really out there and without a conclusion its also not a helpful statement for town. You are saying the evidence wehave MUST

accidentally hit enter.

ugh cal this kinda stuff is really out there and without a conclusion its also not a helpful statement for town. You are saying the evidence we have MUST be a plot by scum so we can't use normal scumhunting patterns when assessing the data we have. Then you don't go on to make a conclusion of what you think the plan by scum would actually be, you just say it has to be a plan.

you have been made out to be the "statistics guy" by others so I have let posts similar to this go in the past but man if you are town think about what the rest of us townies are getting out of your post.

[Robz888]

Um, it's definitely not "really out there."

[schadd]

Eevee has been lynched! He was Ada (from Juli Zeh's Gaming Instinct), the Mafia 2-shot Ninja!

Night 3 starts now and lasts until Jan 6, 7:30 AM forum time.

Thread locked!

[faust]

Does flavor suck this game? Maybe. Sorry.

LaLight has been killed! They were Alexander Perchov (from Jonathan Safran Foer's Everything is Illuminated), the Vanilla Townie!

Day 4 begins!

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (6): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, Robz888, mcmcsalot, Witherweaver

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Day 4 ends Jan 13 at noon forum time.

[Witherweaver]

I'm not sure I get it.  Should we massclaim today?

[SpaceAnemone]

What don't you get? With Eevee dead, we're not quite at lylo any more, are we?

[Witherweaver]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

[Witherweaver]

Well, I have a guess.

[Robz888]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

[Calamitas]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

I don't think we should no-lynch here.

[Witherweaver]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

Oh, I see.  Um... what reasons?

[Robz888]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

Oh, I see.  Um... what reasons?

Reasonable reasons.

[mcmcsalot]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

We are 5 people, 3 are town 2 are scum, a no lynch would result in 2 town/2 scum and we lose.

[Calamitas]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

We are 5 people, 3 are town 2 are scum, a no lynch would result in 2 town/2 scum and we lose.

We still have teamlyle as extra vote, so it wouldn't be lost right away. But lynching is still better today.

[mcmcsalot]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

We are 5 people, 3 are town 2 are scum, a no lynch would result in 2 town/2 scum and we lose.

We still have teamlyle as extra vote, so it wouldn't be lost right away. But lynching is still better today.

Oh right, mafia has to be able to kill all town members so we would be left with 2 town/2 scum and teamlyles vote meaning the two town plus teamlyle can still lynch mafia dropping it to 1 town/1 scum and teamlyles vote.

[Calamitas]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

We are 5 people, 3 are town 2 are scum, a no lynch would result in 2 town/2 scum and we lose.

We still have teamlyle as extra vote, so it wouldn't be lost right away. But lynching is still better today.

Oh right, mafia has to be able to kill all town members so we would be left with 2 town/2 scum and teamlyles vote meaning the two town plus teamlyle can still lynch mafia dropping it to 1 town/1 scum and teamlyles vote.

Yep

[Robz888]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

We are 5 people, 3 are town 2 are scum, a no lynch would result in 2 town/2 scum and we lose.

We still have teamlyle as extra vote, so it wouldn't be lost right away. But lynching is still better today.

Oh right, mafia has to be able to kill all town members so we would be left with 2 town/2 scum and teamlyles vote meaning the two town plus teamlyle can still lynch mafia dropping it to 1 town/1 scum and teamlyles vote.

Fun watching you go through the motions of pretending to realize this.

[Calamitas]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

[Robz888]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

Can you reword or explain this?

[Calamitas]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

Can you reword or explain this?

Usually you want to no-lynch here to force mafia to kill and reach a better chance to hit scum the day after. That doesn't apply here though (because of our vig).  So I wanted to ask whether you have any other reasons to be in favor of no-lynch here.

[Witherweaver]

Space response to Eevee claim:

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

[Witherweaver]

Actually this was first:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

I thought you were a Tracker?

Well, he's got to be scum now. This would be a good point to work out who his accomplices are.

Plus, that explains why he lived through the night as a claimed tracker. Though I still don't see what Paco did to give himself away :-(

[Witherweaver]

Robz:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

I thought you were a Tracker?

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

I thought you were a Tracker?

Well, he's got to be scum now. This would be a good point to work out who his accomplices are.

Plus, that explains why he lived through the night as a claimed tracker. Though I still don't see what Paco did to give himself away :-(

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

[Witherweaver]

McMc:

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

So I think at this point eevee is obviously scum, robz preventing me from getting the eevee lynch through by making the jreggie case seem better an then trying to get a lalight case going when the jreggie one stalled and people started considering eevee again is really suspicious from my perspective. i think scum!spaceanemonie and scum!witherweaver just don't work with a town jreggie and scum partner eevee.

I think it is very likely robz/eevee/lalight or robz/eevee/cal.

[Witherweaver]

Calamitas:

... it's very quiet here.

All waiting for eever I guess

[Robz888]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

Can you reword or explain this?

Usually you want to no-lynch here to force mafia to kill and reach a better chance to hit scum the day after. That doesn't apply here though (because of our vig).  So I wanted to ask whether you have any other reasons to be in favor of no-lynch here.

What does the Vig have to do with it?

[mcmcsalot]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

We are 5 people, 3 are town 2 are scum, a no lynch would result in 2 town/2 scum and we lose.

We still have teamlyle as extra vote, so it wouldn't be lost right away. But lynching is still better today.

Oh right, mafia has to be able to kill all town members so we would be left with 2 town/2 scum and teamlyles vote meaning the two town plus teamlyle can still lynch mafia dropping it to 1 town/1 scum and teamlyles vote.

Fun watching you go through the motions of pretending to realize this.

Ooh you make me want to vote you so bad, I am so sure you are scum. I am so positive you buddied me most of the game, you agreed eevee was scummy but always said someone else was better. You tried to get jreggie or lalight who we now know was town lynched. You kept me alive because you thought you could manipulate me which you have gone on record saying as scum before, and you totally flipped on me when eevee slipped up with his results claim because you knew eevee would go down and it would look terrible for you so you tried to get out ahead of it and say I was scummy for pushing eevee all game but "failing to get him lynched".  Scum scum scum scum scum!

[Witherweaver]

On those reactions I think scummiest to towniest  is Robz > Calamitas > McMc > Space.

[mcmcsalot]

I mean those responses to eevee's slip fit pretty exactly with me reads. Super glad lalight got killed so we can be even more sure robz and cal are remaining scum.

[Calamitas]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

Can you reword or explain this?

Usually you want to no-lynch here to force mafia to kill and reach a better chance to hit scum the day after. That doesn't apply here though (because of our vig).  So I wanted to ask whether you have any other reasons to be in favor of no-lynch here.

What does the Vig have to do with it?

Scum knows who the vig is (since we would otherwise have had a nk) and could take him out tonight. A claimed vig would be an IC so we wouldn't gain a smaller lynchpool in contrast to have the vig claim. And the latter scenario gives us the advantage of an additional kill if we manage to lynch the scum-rb.

[Witherweaver]

We did have a NK?

[Calamitas]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

[Witherweaver]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

[SpaceAnemone]

I mean those responses to eevee's slip fit pretty exactly with me reads. Super glad lalight got killed so we can be even more sure robz and cal are remaining scum.

We should take care with that, though.. if everything seems to add up really well and Calamitas is around, I've seen enough in previous games to be highly suspicious. And Robz played really well as scum before, so why is he looking super-scummy now? The only thing that makes me particularly want to vote him is that he came into our previous day looking super-scummy and talking about claiming before other events kicked off, so I don't quite think it fits with the "being framed by Eevee" narrative he's presenting now.

[Calamitas]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

Hmm, don't think scum would choose to not kill here. Assume the vig would have struck home, would be really ugly for scum then.
But sure, if that is the case the vig shouldn't claim since scum would'nt know their identity.
So I think we should let a vig claim if their target was any different than LaLight and otherwise not. And in case of no claim we shouldn't lynch then.

[mcmcsalot]

Robz, do you want to lynch for any specific reason besides lynchpool reduction? Because that doesn't apply here.

Can you reword or explain this?

Usually you want to no-lynch here to force mafia to kill and reach a better chance to hit scum the day after. That doesn't apply here though (because of our vig).  So I wanted to ask whether you have any other reasons to be in favor of no-lynch here.

What does the Vig have to do with it?

Scum knows who the vig is (since we would otherwise have had a nk) and could take him out tonight. A claimed vig would be an IC so we wouldn't gain a smaller lynchpool in contrast to have the vig claim. And the latter scenario gives us the advantage of an additional kill if we manage to lynch the scum-rb.

This is true, so if we lynch scum we go to 2 town/1 scum, and scum will almost certainty kill the vig so as not to give town 50/50. So vig should claim.

[Witherweaver]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

Hmm, don't think scum would choose to not kill here. Assume the vig would have struck home, would be really ugly for scum then.
But sure, if that is the case the vig shouldn't claim since scum would'nt know their identity.
So I think we should let a vig claim if their target was any different than LaLight and otherwise not. And in case of no claim we shouldn't lynch then.

They could have just been blocked or target protected.  There are also Commuters in this setup.

Well, I guess it's worth any of those things claiming. 

[mcmcsalot]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

Hmm, don't think scum would choose to not kill here. Assume the vig would have struck home, would be really ugly for scum then.
But sure, if that is the case the vig shouldn't claim since scum would'nt know their identity.
So I think we should let a vig claim if their target was any different than LaLight and otherwise not. And in case of no claim we shouldn't lynch then.

With no claim and no lynch doesn't mafia just kill the vig and we are in worse shape than if the vig claims now even if they did shoot lalight?

[Witherweaver]

Why does Mafia know who Vig is?

[SpaceAnemone]

We did have a NK?

An additional one due to the vig I meant.

I think LaLight might have been a Vig kill.

I agree he didn't look terribly townie compared to you or (probably?) me, so I'd have expected one of us to go. However, if he's a vig kill, then the scums pretty much must have done a deliberate no-killed, which would be a super-weird plan. I mean, I think they've got a strongman and a RB, so there's not really anything town can do to stop them. Maybe the one corner case is a very lucky one-shot commuter, depending on how the resolution order for RB and commuting works.

PPE: 5

[mcmcsalot]

Why does Mafia know who Vig is?

We think that because there was only one night kill last 2 nights.

Silverspawn - VT D1(L)
Gkrieg - VT N1(NK)
Teamlyle - Restless Spirit N1(NK) (probably the vig kill)

Jreggie - VT D2(L)
Paco - JK D2(NK)

Eevee - 2shot ninja D3(L)
Lalight - VT N3(NK)

[Robz888]

Yeah, I think I agree. I am the Vig.

[Witherweaver]

Restless Spirit: V
Vig: KK (could not have been PGO, right?)
Jaillkeeper: BB

Okay so only one role is possible, which eliminates Protection, Blocking. 

PPE

[Witherweaver]

Yeah, I think I agree. I am the Vig.

Why Teamlyle?

[Robz888]

I shot teamlyle because Calamitas's analysis made sense if we didn't have to actually waste a lynch to do it.

Two nights ago I shot at Eevee, to save time since I thought we would lynch him anyway and that would clear things up ahead of time. That failed.

Last night I shot at mcmc, which also failed.

[mcmcsalot]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (2): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone
Eevee (2): J Reggie, pacovf
J Reggie (5): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver

Not voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch. Twilight starts now and ends at 9:31 am forum time tomorrow.

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Eevee (4): Robz888, mcmcsalot, LaLight, Witherweaver

Not Voting (4): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, teamlyle

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch. Twilight ends around 7:30 pm forum time.

[Robz888]

I thought maybe my Eevee shot failed because I was jailed, but my shot failing twice makes me think I've been roleblocked over and over again, which I could see mcmc doing.

[Witherweaver]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

[mcmcsalot]

I shot teamlyle because Calamitas's analysis made sense if we didn't have to actually waste a lynch to do it.

Two nights ago I shot at Eevee, to save time since I thought we would lynch him anyway and that would clear things up ahead of time. That failed.

Last night I shot at mcmc, which also failed.

Yep you also mentioned the vig should shoot teamlyle way early on. I knew you would claim this, I was hoping someone else would claim it first because then I would be confident you were fake claiming. Now I'm not, much earlier in the game when I didn't think you were scum I was pretty sure you were the vig, I reread your day one and you were playing like a power role.

[mcmcsalot]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

[mcmcsalot]

So space anemone picked up on robz vig soft claim thing early on as well I believe. They mentioned they thought robz was town because of one post and wouldn't say what post.

[Witherweaver]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

[Robz888]

I shot teamlyle because Calamitas's analysis made sense if we didn't have to actually waste a lynch to do it.

Two nights ago I shot at Eevee, to save time since I thought we would lynch him anyway and that would clear things up ahead of time. That failed.

Last night I shot at mcmc, which also failed.

Yep you also mentioned the vig should shoot teamlyle way early on. I knew you would claim this, I was hoping someone else would claim it first because then I would be confident you were fake claiming. Now I'm not, much earlier in the game when I didn't think you were scum I was pretty sure you were the vig, I reread your day one and you were playing like a power role.

Yeah, I was really mad at myself for being so obvious about it, I was the first person to bring up the Vig solution to Calamitas's theory, and then I was thinking why did I do that, I'm basically announced to scum that I was Vig. Lousy play from me, honestly. I'm pretty amazed they didn't start blocking me Night 1. I think after teamlyle turned up dead they went back to look at who was likely to be Vig, figured me out, and blocked me ever since.

[mcmcsalot]

Robz think about if I am town how I would react to you convincing me to lynch jreggie over eevee. If I was scum and I knew robz was the vig why would I go after you at all. Why would I push eevee alllll game when scum was doing really well after mislynch plus town getting viged at night. Why would I continue to push eevee after that and make the wagon on him get to a point where he had to fake claim and then lynch jreggie...why wouldn't I just have agreed to lynch jreggie and then not have eevee have to create fake night results!! This would be an awful scum game on my part

[Robz888]

Robz think about if I am town how I would react to you convincing me to lynch jreggie over eevee. If I was scum and I knew robz was the vig why would I go after you at all. Why would I push eevee alllll game when scum was doing really well after mislynch plus town getting viged at night. Why would I continue to push eevee after that and make the wagon on him get to a point where he had to fake claim and then lynch jreggie...why wouldn't I just have agreed to lynch jreggie and then not have eevee have to create fake night results!! This would be an awful scum game on my part

Well it's not an awful scum game, you are in good shape, even if you get lynched perhaps. It's not obvious to me who your third is.

I will say, though, your reaction my claim gives me pause.

[Robz888]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

This post is raising some alarm bells for me, but I'm going to wait a little bit to say why.

[Robz888]

Alarm bells about WW, to be clear.

[Witherweaver]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

[Robz888]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

Eevee was going down yesterday no matter what. Doesn't matter if partners voted or not. 100% of the players were going to vote for Eevee.

But that's not even what I suspect about your post.

[mcmcsalot]

I need to get to a computer to really do some rereads of the people left and more wagon analysis.

Interesting that spaceanemone is the only living member of silverspawns wagon left and eevee was the only scum on it.

[mcmcsalot]

Jreggie's lynch is similar but robz and witherweaver are the living members, and I had stated intent to vote many times.

[Witherweaver]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

Eevee was going down yesterday no matter what. Doesn't matter if partners voted or not. 100% of the players were going to vote for Eevee.

But that's not even what I suspect about your post.

Eventually,  yes, but scum knows this and wants to be on the wagon.  Otherwise they risk looking like they're defending their partner.

[Robz888]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

Eevee was going down yesterday no matter what. Doesn't matter if partners voted or not. 100% of the players were going to vote for Eevee.

But that's not even what I suspect about your post.

I don't think that really applies in a case of overwhelming guilt like we had with Eevee.
Eventually,  yes, but scum knows this and wants to be on the wagon.  Otherwise they risk looking like they're defending their partner.

[Robz888]

I think it's really unlikely that there aren't partners on the Eevee wagon.

Eevee was going down yesterday no matter what. Doesn't matter if partners voted or not. 100% of the players were going to vote for Eevee.

But that's not even what I suspect about your post.

Eventually,  yes, but scum knows this and wants to be on the wagon.  Otherwise they risk looking like they're defending their partner.

Quoting fixed...

I don't think that really applies in a case of overwhelming guilt like we had with Eevee.

[Witherweaver]

I feel like it does.

[Witherweaver]

I guess this is the Robz vig post:

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

But if we are going to lynch him at some point of the game anyways that doesn't matter I think. One lynch is going to be taken up by teamlyle and it's best if thar's the day with the least info to work with.

You know, I always tell Vigs not to shoot, but if we do have a Vig (a major if, of course), shooting teamlyle seems like a not-terrible plan.

[mcmcsalot]

I guess this is the Robz vig post:

I think you are not taking into account the snowballing effect of information - it's a very different looking game if people get away with lynching someone who they don't necessarily think is the scummiest for a reason like this.

But if we are going to lynch him at some point of the game anyways that doesn't matter I think. One lynch is going to be taken up by teamlyle and it's best if thar's the day with the least info to work with.

You know, I always tell Vigs not to shoot, but if we do have a Vig (a major if, of course), shooting teamlyle seems like a not-terrible plan.

Yep that's the one. I'm curious if this is the post spaceanemone referred to when they said robz was town and when asked why they said a post of robz that they didn't want to point out.

[SpaceAnemone]

I need to get to a computer to really do some rereads of the people left and more wagon analysis.

Interesting that spaceanemone is the only living member of silverspawns wagon left and eevee was the only scum on it.

Huh.. suddenly LL being the target makes sense! It makes it easy to push a lynch on me because there really was only one scum on silver's wagon.

From my point of view, this is lots of scum points for mcmc. I would vote, but I have to be away for the next ~4 hours, and I don't have the spare brain/time to think about the risks involved just now. Sorry :-(

[Witherweaver]

McMc reread:

First post is a vote of Eevee, not RVS:

I don't think it's super likely for scum!ww to decides o put himself out there so early for no reason.

Also I agree eevee's statement about no claiming is worrying. Unlike ww's claim, scum!eeve benefits from seeming like he's helping town whilst killing potential discussions that get the game started.

vote: eevee

Starting out suspecting partners at the beginning of the game makes sense.

There's the reaction to my thing, did not think I was joking and I guess thought people should lynch me:

Scum shaming just about everyone not voting witherweaver at this point.

Seems okay once I clarify and goes back to eevee:

I mean, I was never claiming PGO, which should have been very clear.

Good a comment finally. Now vote:eevee

though he never actually changed his vote on Eevee before.

Some back and forths with Eevee follow, explains his reason (reply 248), seems reasonable.  Reacts to a post J Reggie makes by saying Reggie is scummy, also:

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

So I looked at people's current votes and I am curious specifically at spaceanemone and teamlyle, both of your votes for me came a long long time ago, spaceanemone I believe is voting for me based on complete rvs. This isn't super concerning but I'm not the biggest fan with of an L-2 wagon being built with

With such old votes on it. Again not crazy concerning but I would love for them to explain their votes or change them.

Presses Calam and Space a little more in what follows.  These were the things that made me think McMc was townier, I think.  He was also a primary actor through most of Day 1, I think.  Also had an early wagon up to L-2.

Analyzes Teamlyle wagon some, concludes:

All in this wagon was much less serious than I thought on first read. Other than paco's original analysis, not much else was said content wise. Which would make sense why teamlyle hasn't defended himself well however I maintain that claim was terrible to make at that point of pressure. The thread then being whipped into a flurry and the rest of pacos analysis being completely ignored is all pretty scummy though hard to tell who I'm directing those feelings at.

Perhaps the early claim was intentional because teamlyle didn't think he had any better defense so just shoot for the fences as soon as you get votes?

A bit later, votes Teamlyle:

no, if teamlyle doesn't cooperate, it's just like any other town(?) lynch.

This is really strange post. For what reason Teamlyle won't cooperate? You presume, he won't be reading the thread?

Go back and read his posts.

I did and vote:teamlyle I don't believe his reasoning for claiming under such little pressure. He hasn't continued defending himself as I expect town. Also his statement about not having good reads and wanting us to help him get better to better use his power is silly. It's a defense that pulls at the emotional empathetic reasons not to lynch and not the logical or factual reasons, and I maintain that town should be better than that.

I don't really like the teamlyle vote.  I don't see why scum claims there under so little pressure, either.

And he's gone (was VLA) for most of the end of Day 1.  Reaction to lynch:

So I just caught up. On my honeymoon in the Caribbean but I have internet access on one phone so I plan on reading along and posting still. I hate the silver spawn lynch. I'm still not convinced I even believe teamlyles claim and I still think eevee is scummy from the beginning, and oh look eevee started the silver wagon and teamlyle is on it. the deadline looming talk was crazy, I think there was a lot more time when it was first brought up as a problem.

Jreggies vote is super scummy but in such an obvious way in not sure I get it. Like why oh why not wait for Faust to clarify and potentially let silver claim.

 His supicion of Eevee does go away as the day goes on, though he leaves his vote on Eevee for an awful long time, really almost the entire day.  I'll continue on to D2 later on.

[Witherweaver]

I need to get to a computer to really do some rereads of the people left and more wagon analysis.

Interesting that spaceanemone is the only living member of silverspawns wagon left and eevee was the only scum on it.

Huh.. suddenly LL being the target makes sense! It makes it easy to push a lynch on me because there really was only one scum on silver's wagon.

From my point of view, this is lots of scum points for mcmc. I would vote, but I have to be away for the next ~4 hours, and I don't have the spare brain/time to think about the risks involved just now. Sorry :-(

No votes!  Much risk, many danger, so wow.

[mcmcsalot]

I need to get to a computer to really do some rereads of the people left and more wagon analysis.

Interesting that spaceanemone is the only living member of silverspawns wagon left and eevee was the only scum on it.

Huh.. suddenly LL being the target makes sense! It makes it easy to push a lynch on me because there really was only one scum on silver's wagon.

From my point of view, this is lots of scum points for mcmc. I would vote, but I have to be away for the next ~4 hours, and I don't have the spare brain/time to think about the risks involved just now. Sorry :-(

No votes!  Much risk, many danger, so wow.

Yea weird comment about wanting to vote and kinda OMGUS for me just doing some wagon analysis and completely ignoring my question about their comment on thinking robz is town early on because of a single post.

[Calamitas]

I think scum has taken out LaLight due to thinking he was the vig. I for one had him and robz down in my book as most likely candidates.
Anyways, I will reread probably tomorrow.

[Robz888]

So we actually should lynch today, because it will be the same as lynching tomorrow, I'll just be dead. And I can't do anything at night tonight if we No Lynch, I'll just be roleblocked. But if we somehow lynch the roleblocker today, I have the option to shoot tonight again.

Thus I'm thinking we should massclaim... it's possible we narrow the decision down even further. Right?

[Robz888]

I will direct the massclaim.

My order: WW, mcmc, Space, Calamitas

[Calamitas]

So we actually should lynch today, because it will be the same as lynching tomorrow, I'll just be dead. And I can't do anything at night tonight if we No Lynch, I'll just be roleblocked. But if we somehow lynch the roleblocker today, I have the option to shoot tonight again.

Thus I'm thinking we should massclaim... it's possible we narrow the decision down even further. Right?

Exactly

[Robz888]

Teamlyle, if you agree with my plan, you can vote for no lynch and then unvote.

If you disagree with the plan, vote for no lynch and then don't unvote right away. Scum can't quickhammer the no lynch option, we get another day and they are caught.

Anyone else who votes right now is confessing to being scum.

[Robz888]

Actually I guess it's not that important for teamlyle to confirm, I don't see how it could possibly be wrong to do this, and if it somehow is, it's not like teamlyle is going to be able to explain why.

So... you're up WW.

[Witherweaver]

I'm a VT.

Still doing my McMc reread.

[Robz888]

Okay. Mcmc, you're next.

[Witherweaver]

D2:

Starts off going for Eevee:

So Robz gets a town-vote from you for moving his vote in the run-up to a deadline, but I get suspicion for even talking about moving my own vote?

Well, but I think that makes objective sense. And no, it wasn't right before deadline. Look back, I was around and really trying to get something else going, and even moved my vote with a good amount of time left. If enough people had been around we could have gotten another lynch. I kinda gave up after hours of silence and no one being on.

You "talking" about not feeling good about the Siverspawn lynch at the point when it actually is too late, yeah, that's sort of scummy.

But point taken about Eevee, anyway. Although I suspect your motives.

I think the biggest point here is that eevee's post are continually off by just a bit here or there. I don't think its scummy that spaceanemonie didnt like the lynch, I think its towny from both of you.

I understand what you are saying about the buddying. I think it affects my tone towards Robz now that he is emerging as my strongest town read and I want him to trust me.

It's just that by Day 2, a lot of the time I find that people are just wildly suspicious of me no matter what I do. So you're treating me like town, either because you have a sincere and really solid (and actually correct as it turns out) read on me, or because you're scum and getting on my good side is (in your view) the right strategy.

And I have to try and figure out which of these things is more likely for you. Definitely could be the first thing, but do you see why I would worry it's the second?

So you are playing very towny. Like with how much of a town read I have on you, I think eevee as towny would also have a town read on you but i think eevee is scum.

vote:eevee

Calls J Reggie hammer scummy, analyzes Silver wagon some., talks about possible teams, continues to not like Reggie:

So for now, let's go with a scum team of lalight, calamitas, and Eevee. vote: Eevee.

Woah, I think J Reggie just committed a big scum tell: voting right after people (in this case me and mcmc) start talking seriously about you being scum. Scum get paranoid that they are being talked about and their first impulse is to try to misdirect, and casting a vote is the flashiest way to do that (it literally appears in bold).

Gosh, on top of everything else, I'm not sure I can ignore all the signs. Obvscum is obvscum, yes?  Vote: J Reggie

I agree, I am happy to switch from eevee to jreggie. It also helps that I think its likely that vote he made is against his scum partner in an attempt to be early on a scum lynch and turn that into some town cred.

Also finds LaLight scummy:

actually, creating the IC who can'e be killed at night is much more profitable than people think. Vote: Teamlyle

So I was rereading some things and this stuck out to me as scummy. Now knowing teamlye was telling the truth people who accepted an unprovoked claim so early are scummy. This post came right after the claim and both paco and gkrieg made posts about how strange he claim was and if we should believe it. You are treating his claim as fact immediately and advocating for his lynch.

And interesting post regarding teams:

@robz I actually think so. I guess I'll just say it now because I don't think jreggie is going to answer soon.

Jreggie mentioned if eevee and cal are scum they are playing a good game but it's bold. What struck me about this was I actually think cal and eevee have avoided toalking to each other quite a bit.

It goes back to that feeling of now that we have had a day and a half of discussion who isn't talking to each other and the people that fit that description to me are eevee and cal.

This makes McMc+Cal less likely.. you usually don't talk about your team together this explicitly. 

Ends up moving to J Reggie:

Okay vote: jreggie this is back to l-1

Rereads that have confirmed my town reads on robz and space and wither as well as the amount of stagnation that has hit the thread makes me comfortable voting.

Also with teamlyle having unvoted I think it helps to have as many people in game on wagon so we have more information later but it also makes sense to utilize teamlyles vote so I'm not sure what is best in that regard.

Eevee posts some, McMc finds him scummy again, and eventually revotes:

Actually vote: eevee space if you vote as well that brings eevee to l-1. You mentioned you find eevee scummier than jreggie, I think I agree based on eevees continued posts.

Teamlyle I am curious if you like me thoughts on eevee. If you agree eevee is scummy vote me and then vote back to whatever you like. Thank you.

Robz I would really like you to reread eevee and let me know what you, I definitely think you are town and I think you are just not putting in effort to read eevee, which is no problem you are just scumhunting other avenues.

These interactions around here make McMc look town.  Moving from J Reggie back to Eevee here isn't a regular bus move..the change of mind feels organic.  Specifically the post before this one:

Eevee your response gets at a bit of how I felt you were scummily pushing people to do things in day one. Nothing spaceanemone has done so far has made me think "oh they might not vote in the next day and then we won't know how they felt." Spaceanemone has made their reads rather clear in the event a lynch happens with their vote not placed and I believe that they have been active in question others and moving the game.

It feels like you asked spaceanemone to do something without providing a reason, which was right after you approved of my point (which I didn't really
make) without a real reason, and sandwiched in between those statements was a restatement of who you are voting and that you find them more scummy then someone else...again without a reason. That is why it's very scummy

Eevee gets to L-1 claim, McMc doesn't believe claim:

Gkrieg is such a good player, information about him could be valuable, and I thought he could maybe perform the kill if he was scum.

Very convenient as paco said. Also this reasoning although it is completely believable, it says nothing relevant to this game. You said i tracked X because X is good and I thought he might do Y. That's such a stock answer, if you are a power role and you did track someone who ends up dying you have to have immediately thought oh great that stunk I better explain myself well. Then now when questioned you should be able to say, gkreik was acting this certain way, I had this suspicion about him because of that, I also noticed him doing this so I figured tracking him was a great option.

and more back and forth follows.

He eventually unvotes following talk of J Reggie:

and during the fallout a great case on jreggie was made.

Wait, when did this happen?

Oh my gosh, no I had forgotten it was for the super scummy hammer of silverspawn, not the vote for eevee that could have been the hammer.

unvote I have to reread more but I might be back to j reggie as the best choice

Reggie gets to L-1, McMc intends to hammer but I do it first.

That finishes Day 2.  Of note here is that he revitalized the Eevee wagon when J Reggie was quite possible.  That's really ballsy to do to your partner. 

[SpaceAnemone]

Aw, crap. No, seriously claiming is a stupid idea!

If we have another PR out there they should definitely stay hidden because scum has an RB.

I'll catch up with the rest and work out what the post of mine that mcmc keeps referring to is, though I'm convinced he's scum and trying to frame me for something.

[Calamitas]

Aw, crap. No, seriously claiming is a stupid idea!

If we have another PR out there they should definitely stay hidden because scum has an RB.

I'll catch up with the rest and work out what the post of mine that mcmc keeps referring to is, though I'm convinced he's scum and trying to frame me for something.

Claiming is certainly not stupid, scum has only 1RB after all.

[Robz888]

Aw, crap. No, seriously claiming is a stupid idea!

If we have another PR out there they should definitely stay hidden because scum has an RB.

I'll catch up with the rest and work out what the post of mine that mcmc keeps referring to is, though I'm convinced he's scum and trying to frame me for something.

Claiming is certainly not stupid, scum has only 1RB after all.

And it's more important to create ICs right now if we can. Possibly solve the setup, corner some scum.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay. Mcmc, you're next.

I'm a VT

[Robz888]

Space is up next.

[mcmcsalot]

Aw, crap. No, seriously claiming is a stupid idea!

If we have another PR out there they should definitely stay hidden because scum has an RB.

I'll catch up with the rest and work out what the post of mine that mcmc keeps referring to is, though I'm convinced he's scum and trying to frame me for something.

I just went through your posts and I couldn't find it. It must have been someone else, this is the first I am on a PC to look it up. Also woah omgus?

[mcmcsalot]

I will answer to my two questions:

I saw specific Robz' message that makes me think he's town.

J Reggie was obv!scum for everyone and no one opposed his lynch. But there were always better candidates (i suppose this is what's happening now)

Edit: specific Robz' post.

Found it, it was lalight

[SpaceAnemone]

I need to get to a computer to really do some rereads of the people left and more wagon analysis.

Interesting that spaceanemone is the only living member of silverspawns wagon left and eevee was the only scum on it.

Huh.. suddenly LL being the target makes sense! It makes it easy to push a lynch on me because there really was only one scum on silver's wagon.

From my point of view, this is lots of scum points for mcmc. I would vote, but I have to be away for the next ~4 hours, and I don't have the spare brain/time to think about the risks involved just now. Sorry :-(

No votes!  Much risk, many danger, so wow.

Yea weird comment about wanting to vote and kinda OMGUS for me just doing some wagon analysis and completely ignoring my question about their comment on thinking robz is town early on because of a single post.

I didn't respond to your comment because I can't place it at all in my memory as something I said in this game, and I'm confused. Could you point me at it? I've had a quick search through my early game (it was only really D1 that I was townreading Robz all that much), and I can't see anything that seems like what you've described.

PPE 2: Ah, yes, well if it wasn't me then that would explain things. No wonder I was confused!

[Robz888]

Hey space, claim time

[Robz888]

Hello? Now is not the time to hesitate.

[Robz888]

Space is no longer online. This inspires a tremendous lack of confidence.

[Calamitas]

Space is no longer online. This inspires a tremendous lack of confidence.

What do you mean by that?

[Robz888]

Space is no longer online. This inspires a tremendous lack of confidence.

What do you mean by that?

Space saw my instructions to claim and chose not to. Possibly to formulate some kind of fake claim. Why hesitate otherwise?

[SpaceAnemone]

Dammit.

Well, as is probably obvious to scums and not so much to my fellow townies, I'm the real vig. When Robz first claimed, I didn't really want to go head-to-head with him in an argument because he's much more eloquent than I am, and if I die then town loses. I thought that maybe keeping hidden and trying again to shoot Robz in the night would be feasible. He was my target last night, but didn't die, though I did check that if I successfully target a scum and a scum successfully targets me, my kill still dies. That wasn't totally clear from the rule-set, but I checked. I'd thought that even if I was last night's NK target, I could take Robz out with me, because after yesterday's early PR-hunting and scummy response to Eevee's slip initially, I was totally sure he was scum anyway.

The thing is, I don't think they knew exactly who the vig was, but I think it was down to me or WW now as far as they were concerned (Calamitas's D1 looked too VT to me, and I'm reading mcmc as the other scum, though it's possible it's Calamitas and not mcmc). I didn't actually shoot anyone in N2: if you look at my end-of-D2 game you can tell I wasn't really sure who was what at that point... not that surprising in retrospect given that my main town-read from D1 had been Robz. Then in N3 I was blocked, because otherwise Robz would be dead. What nobody has mentioned yet is that scum has a 1-night switch thing, so I think it's entirely possible that having noticed there was no vig action on N2, they decided to use the switch on N3, and then conveniently implied that that meant scum knew who the vig was. Inconveniently for my narrative, it was Calamitas and not Robz who brought up the fact that the lack of vig kill means that scum knows who the vig is.

Anyway, now Robz is still pushing for claims, I think it's clear that the main motivation behind that is to out the real vig, and also to check for a final non-T roll, since scum can't tell the difference between 5 non-T rolls and 6, given that their abilities are the same for both. Sadly, WW's VT role-claim just seems too believable and un-hesitant, so my hesitation has probably already given me away, so there's no point delaying the me-v-Robz head-to-head now.

My threat to vote mcmc earlier was mainly to see what Robz's response was... if he seemed happy to bus aggressively (as I think Robz will generally do), then it might have been okay to stay hidden and play along with his vig claim at least long enough to try to take out the other scum. That's looking less possible now.

As for breadcrumbing, I was really hesitant to do so in the early game. And if Paco's death was due in part to a subtle breadcrumb that I still can't find, then maybe that's evidence that I did the right thing there. I had tried to signal to Calamitas in D3, though! The thing about exact probabilities in the case of Eevee's claim would only make sense if you assume that there was a vig in the game, and nobody was talking about vigs in D3, which was frustrating for me, because I wanted them to be considered, and I really wanted a VT to be the one bringing it up so that I didn't have to give myself away in doing so. Annoyingly, on that one occasion Calamitas was being less exact and theoretical than I'd wanted.

Ah, PPE several already. Robz is getting impatient.

Vote: Robz

[Robz888]

Like that! Vote: Space

[Robz888]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

[Robz888]

Looks like no, it would take more letters than we would have left. Can you confirm, Calamitas?

[Calamitas]

Two vigs aren't possible since I'm a VT.

[Robz888]

We know BBVKK, so another K or a W that became K wouldn't do it.

[Robz888]

Vote: SpaceAnemone

[Calamitas]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

[Robz888]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.

[SpaceAnemone]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

[SpaceAnemone]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

More likely they just block me and kill someone else in the night, leaving us in a worse position.

There must be a third scum, though. And my guess is that that one will be the RB, since it's Robz who's willing to go head-to-head with me, meaning he's more likely to be the strongman, and therefore slightly more expendable.

[Witherweaver]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.

Isn't space confirmed scum to you?

[Robz888]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.

Isn't space confirmed scum to you?

Yes, that's why I'm voting for her.

[Witherweaver]

Yeah, no lynch is bad. 

Space, why did you shoot Teamlyle?

[Calamitas]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

More likely they just block me and kill someone else in the night, leaving us in a worse position.

There must be a third scum, though. And my guess is that that one will be the RB, since it's Robz who's willing to go head-to-head with me, meaning he's more likely to be the strongman, and therefore slightly more expendable.

That situation isn't worse then, it's better. We have one fewer player (--> one flip more) and otherwise the situation is unchanged.

[Robz888]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

[Witherweaver]

I really think we should no-lynch here now!
vote: no lynch

They will block and kill me, you lynch Space tomorrow... that doesn't seem like an improvement.

Isn't space confirmed scum to you?

Yes, that's why I'm voting for her.

Oh I misread, I thought it said they (scum) would kill you and then lynch Space tomorrow.

[Calamitas]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

No, since a T was possible as well.

[Robz888]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

No, since a T was possible as well.

Yes, that's what I'm saying, a Tracker for instance was possible and would have been IC.

[Calamitas]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

No, since a T was possible as well.

Yes, that's what I'm saying, a Tracker for instance was possible and would have been IC.

No, they wouldn't due to the possibility of a T roll.

[Robz888]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

No, since a T was possible as well.

Yes, that's what I'm saying, a Tracker for instance was possible and would have been IC.

No, they wouldn't due to the possibility of a T roll.

Oh I get it now. I am NOT a setup person. You're right, I was wrong, we shouldn't have massclaimed. Why did you back up my faulty analysis?

[Witherweaver]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

[Calamitas]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

No, since a T was possible as well.

Yes, that's what I'm saying, a Tracker for instance was possible and would have been IC.

No, they wouldn't due to the possibility of a T roll.

Oh I get it now. I am NOT a setup person. You're right, I was wrong, we shouldn't have massclaimed. Why did you back up my faulty analysis?

It couldn't do any harm (scum was going to block the vig) and having all info out does only help going into the end.

[Robz888]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

[SpaceAnemone]

Yeah, no lynch is bad. 

Space, why did you shoot Teamlyle?

I believed that it might be advantageous to have the scenarios Calamitas was pushing for later on, and it was a way of signalling to town that there was a vig in the game without doing so in a way that would give me away personally, since I was rather keen at remaining anonymous. Normally, I'd have had to vig someone I thought was definite scum, or it would be foolish to pick townies off. Teamlyle gave me the opportunity to signal there was a vig, but not to do so in a way that meant that scum could look at the person who died and see who was scumreading them in order to trace back to the vig. I was really very frustrated with the lack of scum-hunting in D1, though, so part of it was just to shut Calamitas up, really. And also, I was townreading Robz pretty heavily in D1, and he'd suggested it. And as for why I wanted to signal to town that there was a vig in play, I've never played as a vig, and I've never even lived past N1 as a town PR before, so I'd been hoping for more help from town to work out how to play it. You'll notice that mostly the only person who's been talking about what the vig should do has been Robz, though. Other than JR saying I shouldn't have shot teamlyle, that is... He might have been right, and the UB thing was actually careless play on my part -- I should at least have checked in my QT first that the rules were what I assumed (that UB would just take on the second role if RS was the first to die), and it wasn't till I'd asked in-thread in D2 that I realised my mistake. However, I worked out that the chance of there having been a UB in the game at all was reasonably low given that I knew I was vig, and that was info that the rest of the game didn't have till after the two N1 kills became apparent.

[Witherweaver]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

Because you would have known that any PR claim would mean scum between Eevee and whomever claimed.  But you didn't mention that in your reasoning for proposing massclaim.

[SpaceAnemone]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

You were pushing for us to believe Eevee's claim, and yet also suggesting a mass claim. If Eevee was being truthful, there could absolutely not have been any other roles left to find.

[Robz888]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

Because you would have known that any PR claim would mean scum between Eevee and whomever claimed.  But you didn't mention that in your reasoning for proposing massclaim.

When I proposed massclaim yesterday? Well yes, but if I had mentioned that, I would have outed myself as a PR before we agreed to massclaim.

[Witherweaver]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

Because you would have known that any PR claim would mean scum between Eevee and whomever claimed.  But you didn't mention that in your reasoning for proposing massclaim.

When I proposed massclaim yesterday? Well yes, but if I had mentioned that, I would have outed myself as a PR before we agreed to massclaim.

No, when you explained why you proposed it five minutes ago.

[Robz888]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

You were pushing for us to believe Eevee's claim, and yet also suggesting a mass claim. If Eevee was being truthful, there could absolutely not have been any other roles left to find.

But that would not have been a reason not to massclaim.

[Robz888]

Wait, wasn't Eevee still alive and a claimed Tracker at the beginning of Day 3?

Yeah, what does that matter?

Because you would have known that any PR claim would mean scum between Eevee and whomever claimed.  But you didn't mention that in your reasoning for proposing massclaim.

When I proposed massclaim yesterday? Well yes, but if I had mentioned that, I would have outed myself as a PR before we agreed to massclaim.

No, when you explained why you proposed it five minutes ago.

When I proposed it five minutes ago, Eevee was dead. I honestly dont understand what you are saying. Eevee's claim was irrelevant today, yesterday it wasn't a reason not to massclaim.

[Witherweaver]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

You were explaining here your motivation for coming into D3 proposing a massclaim.  An upshot of the massclaim is that BBKKV{I} had been claimed so far, so any other PR claim means lie or Eevee lied.

Though I just realized, V was public knowledge there, so your perspective would not have been different than anyone else's. 

[Witherweaver]

And so actually I don't understand Calamitas' point.

[Calamitas]

Eevee' flip meant eevee lied, we are positive that eeve lied.

[Witherweaver]

Eevee' flip meant eevee lied, we are positive that eeve lied.

We are talking about the beginning of D3.

[Calamitas]

Eevee' flip meant eevee lied, we are positive that eeve lied.

We are talking about the beginning of D3.

But the massclaim was today. I seriously don't understand your point at any level.

[Robz888]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

You were explaining here your motivation for coming into D3 proposing a massclaim.  An upshot of the massclaim is that BBKKV{I} had been claimed so far, so any other PR claim means lie or Eevee lied.

Though I just realized, V was public knowledge there, so your perspective would not have been different than anyone else's.

OOPS I misread, I thought Space was referring to my D4 massclaim proposal, because that's what just happened Sorry, reading too quickly.

I suggested massclaiming Day 3 because we could solve the setup, and yes, any other PR claims would narrow it down to that person or Eevee. I had same info as everyone else, I just knew who the Vig was (me).

Sorry to make this confusing, I thought Space was talking about today, not yesterdya.

[Robz888]

Eevee' flip meant eevee lied, we are positive that eeve lied.

We are talking about the beginning of D3.

But the massclaim was today. I seriously don't understand your point at any level.

I get it, it got confused because Space brought up that I suggested massclaim on Day 3, I thought she was talking about the massclaim I just suggested today, and then WW got confused, and bleh.

But it wasn't weird for me to suggest it yesterday, as Space implied.

[Robz888]

Have to go for now, BTW

[Calamitas]

By the way, we really want to no-lynch here.
Currently, public knowledge is that {Space, robz} contains exactly one scum and {WW, mcm, Calamitas} contains exactly one scum. By no lynching, we force scum to reduce one of those pools without giving up any lynches we have. This is clearly the best option here.

[Witherweaver]

Sorry, it was Space's point, not Calamitas:

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

[schadd]

Vote Count 4.1

Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (1): Robz888
No Lynch (1): Calamitas

Not Voting (3): Calamitas, teamlyle, mcmcsalot

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Day 4 ends Jan 13 at noon forum time.

[Calamitas]

<b> @Mod: How is the game going to be called if everyone is dead? </b>

[Calamitas]

@Mod: How is the game going to be called if everyone is dead?

[SpaceAnemone]

Eevee' flip meant eevee lied, we are positive that eeve lied.

We are talking about the beginning of D3.

But the massclaim was today. I seriously don't understand your point at any level.

I get it, it got confused because Space brought up that I suggested massclaim on Day 3, I thought she was talking about the massclaim I just suggested today, and then WW got confused, and bleh.

But it wasn't weird for me to suggest it yesterday, as Space implied.

Saying it wasn't weird for suggesting it is not the same as explaining how it's not weird! You wanted to out non-existent PRs when you yourself are claiming to be a vig. If you had been a vig at that point, you'd have felt ridiculously exposed, knowing that either you had to claim, thus allowing scum to RB you for the rest of the game, or to lie about it and claim VT (which was something I was considering at that point) in order to stand a chance at shooting again.

I was super-suspicious of Robz trying to get claims out early in D3... notice how he was trying to make a big deal about getting it all mediated by teamlyle and not at all interested in the part of the discussion where it was a terrible idea. That was absolutely a vig-fishing expedition by scum!

[SpaceAnemone]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

[Witherweaver]

This reminds me of my first newbie Mafia game.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

*except scum is still in possession of the switch

[SpaceAnemone]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

You were explaining here your motivation for coming into D3 proposing a massclaim.  An upshot of the massclaim is that BBKKV{I} had been claimed so far, so any other PR claim means lie or Eevee lied.

Though I just realized, V was public knowledge there, so your perspective would not have been different than anyone else's.

Sure, BBKKV were common knowledge by that point, meaning we know that scum is as powerful as it's possible for them to get, including having a RB. We know that there's a living vig, and that at best there could be a low chance of another minor PR, if we assumed at that point that Eevee was lying. Now, early in D3, Robz was encouraging people to believe Eevee and still wanted a claim.

If he'd really been a vig, that's just too much to lose. Was seriously expecting to come out as an un-counter-claimed vig and just act as an IC for a round till scums picked him off? And with so many scums left (three at that point), is it worth it for town to lose its one PR in a head-to-head if a scum decides to counter-claim? Before Eevee's scum-slip, town wasn't in a strong enough position for that trade to be worthwhile, which is precisely why Robz, as scum, was hunting for PRs there.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

*except scum is still in possession of the switch

Do you mean "if scum is still in possession of the switch", or do you have some reason to think they still are?

I think chances are that they used it last night to block my kill on Robz, otherwise Robz would have been targeting me much more directly, rather than casting about looking for a way to out the vig.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

*except scum is still in possession of the switch

Do you mean "if scum is still in possession of the switch", or do you have some reason to think they still are?

I think chances are that they used it last night to block my kill on Robz, otherwise Robz would have been targeting me much more directly, rather than casting about looking for a way to out the vig.

I don't have any evidence that suggests they still have it, but that scenario is the only one without a 50% chance of winning.

[SpaceAnemone]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

From my point of view, we up that to a much higher percentage if we take out Robz tonight, and a slightly higher percentage still if we can take out his accomplice, assuming that's more likely to be the RB.

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

*except scum is still in possession of the switch

Do you mean "if scum is still in possession of the switch", or do you have some reason to think they still are?

I think chances are that they used it last night to block my kill on Robz, otherwise Robz would have been targeting me much more directly, rather than casting about looking for a way to out the vig.

I don't have any evidence that suggests they still have it, but that scenario is the only one without a 50% chance of winning.

*except either robz or SA is the rb. But I think it is highly unlikely since the chance of one of them getting killed today was tremendous which would have given the vig another free shot.

[SpaceAnemone]

I don't have any evidence that suggests they still have it, but that scenario is the only one without a 50% chance of winning.

How so? I can't vig any more because they can always RB me, so having the switch or not is irrelevant.

[SpaceAnemone]

*except either robz or SA is the rb. But I think it is highly unlikely since the chance of one of them getting killed today was tremendous which would have given the vig another free shot.

Um, so is your asterisk followed by an assertion meant to be a caveat, but just doesn't have an "if" for some reason?

[Calamitas]

@Calamitas: I don't think we can even reach that situation with me outed and scum in possession of a role-blocker :-( I tried asking whether a last lone RB scum can simultaneously RB and kill, in the hope that it might be a one-or-other thing.. I haven't received a response yet, but actually looking at the collection of PMs faust posted, it seems like they can do both in one night.

Right, I was speaking bullshit. In case we no-lynch we are guaranteed a 50% chance of victory. Don't lynch now please.

From my point of view, we up that to a much higher percentage if we take out Robz tonight, and a slightly higher percentage still if we can take out his accomplice, assuming that's more likely to be the RB.

The accomplice (whether yours or robz') is almost certain to be the rb here.

[Calamitas]

*except either robz or SA is the rb. But I think it is highly unlikely since the chance of one of them getting killed today was tremendous which would have given the vig another free shot.

Um, so is your asterisk followed by an assertion meant to be a caveat, but just doesn't have an "if" for some reason?

Jep, thought the if wasn't necessary because of the "except" implying it.

[Calamitas]

Now again, but a bit more concise now:
Currently it is public knowledge that {Sa, robz} contains exactly one scum and exactly one vig.
Additionally it is known that {Calamitas, mcm, WW} contains 1 scum.
The scum in the latter group is overwhelmingly more likely to be the rb since scum wouldn't want to give the vig a shot if the fakeclaimed vig gets lynched today.
In case of a no-lynch, scum must reduce either playerpool.

There are two options then:
- The vig gets killed.
- Someone out of {Cala, mcm, WW} gets killed

In case of the first scenario we know the other one to be scum. We lynch him and are faced with a 2 player lynchpool.

In case of the second scenario, we lynch out of the two survivors out of {mcm, Cala, WW}. We have a 50% chance of hitting scum there. In case we hit the real scum, we have most likely hit the rb. In that case, if scum doesn't possess the switch anymore, the surviving vig kills the last scum (that one is confirmed) and the game is won.

[Robz888]

Wait, Unvote, could there be two?

Two vigs? Nope, not possible in conjunction with an RS and a JK.

Also, what motivation would you as vig have to come into D3 proposing a massclaim when the overwhelming likelihood is that there are no other PRs out there and still three scums?

BBKKV leaves one more letter. There were several categories, we could have had one more letter there, another PR, and then that person would be an IC.

You were explaining here your motivation for coming into D3 proposing a massclaim.  An upshot of the massclaim is that BBKKV{I} had been claimed so far, so any other PR claim means lie or Eevee lied.

Though I just realized, V was public knowledge there, so your perspective would not have been different than anyone else's.

Sure, BBKKV were common knowledge by that point, meaning we know that scum is as powerful as it's possible for them to get, including having a RB. We know that there's a living vig, and that at best there could be a low chance of another minor PR, if we assumed at that point that Eevee was lying. Now, early in D3, Robz was encouraging people to believe Eevee and still wanted a claim.

If he'd really been a vig, that's just too much to lose. Was seriously expecting to come out as an un-counter-claimed vig and just act as an IC for a round till scums picked him off? And with so many scums left (three at that point), is it worth it for town to lose its one PR in a head-to-head if a scum decides to counter-claim? Before Eevee's scum-slip, town wasn't in a strong enough position for that trade to be worthwhile, which is precisely why Robz, as scum, was hunting for PRs there.

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

[SpaceAnemone]

*except either robz or SA is the rb. But I think it is highly unlikely since the chance of one of them getting killed today was tremendous which would have given the vig another free shot.

Um, so is your asterisk followed by an assertion meant to be a caveat, but just doesn't have an "if" for some reason?

Jep, thought the if wasn't necessary because of the "except" implying it.

I'm finding it confusing, because it reads as an assertion that you're adding as an afterthought. But then it's 0245 here at the moment, so I should be asleep.

I am finding it frustrating that you're not going back and re-reading things. The 50% assertion plays the game like it's some kind of Markov system, when in reality we can do an awful lot conditioned on past events. Since I was fully convinced that Robz was scum yesterday, I feel that you and WW should be able to see something there.

[Calamitas]

*except either robz or SA is the rb. But I think it is highly unlikely since the chance of one of them getting killed today was tremendous which would have given the vig another free shot.

Um, so is your asterisk followed by an assertion meant to be a caveat, but just doesn't have an "if" for some reason?

Jep, thought the if wasn't necessary because of the "except" implying it.

I'm finding it confusing, because it reads as an assertion that you're adding as an afterthought. But then it's 0245 here at the moment, so I should be asleep.

I am finding it frustrating that you're not going back and re-reading things. The 50% assertion plays the game like it's some kind of Markov system, when in reality we can do an awful lot conditioned on past events. Since I was fully convinced that Robz was scum yesterday, I feel that you and WW should be able to see something there.

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

[SpaceAnemone]

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

So you're saying that if you had been a vig, you'd have been willing to entirely give up any chance of shooting again and marked yourself for the next kill on the off-chance that there was a scum who'd make things easier for you by pretending to be another PR? And you'd have done that because it was the "done thing", without having considered how awful it was in your particular position? That just doesn't seem like plausible play from a player as strong as you.

@Calamitas, WW, mcmc and teamlyle, does Robz really seem like a person who was actually thinking like a vig in that situation to you?

[Robz888]

Now again, but a bit more concise now:
Currently it is public knowledge that {Sa, robz} contains exactly one scum and exactly one vig.
Additionally it is known that {Calamitas, mcm, WW} contains 1 scum.
The scum in the latter group is overwhelmingly more likely to be the rb since scum wouldn't want to give the vig a shot if the fakeclaimed vig gets lynched today.
In case of a no-lynch, scum must reduce either playerpool.

There are two options then:
- The vig gets killed.
- Someone out of {Cala, mcm, WW} gets killed

In case of the first scenario we know the other one to be scum. We lynch him and are faced with a 2 player lynchpool.

In case of the second scenario, we lynch out of the two survivors out of {mcm, Cala, WW}. We have a 50% chance of hitting scum there. In case we hit the real scum, we have most likely hit the rb. In that case, if scum doesn't possess the switch anymore, the surviving vig kills the last scum (that one is confirmed) and the game is won.

I don't understand why the scum in the Cala/mcmc/WW set is more like to be the RB. Based on the analysis you just laid out, it would be smarter for the RB to counterclaim me, force this standoff, follow your plan, and at worst get the non-RB lynched.

It could even be you, in fact!

This explains the belated counterclaiming of me, really.

[Robz888]

Now again, but a bit more concise now:
Currently it is public knowledge that {Sa, robz} contains exactly one scum and exactly one vig.
Additionally it is known that {Calamitas, mcm, WW} contains 1 scum.
The scum in the latter group is overwhelmingly more likely to be the rb since scum wouldn't want to give the vig a shot if the fakeclaimed vig gets lynched today.
In case of a no-lynch, scum must reduce either playerpool.

There are two options then:
- The vig gets killed.
- Someone out of {Cala, mcm, WW} gets killed

In case of the first scenario we know the other one to be scum. We lynch him and are faced with a 2 player lynchpool.

In case of the second scenario, we lynch out of the two survivors out of {mcm, Cala, WW}. We have a 50% chance of hitting scum there. In case we hit the real scum, we have most likely hit the rb. In that case, if scum doesn't possess the switch anymore, the surviving vig kills the last scum (that one is confirmed) and the game is won.

I don't understand why the scum in the Cala/mcmc/WW set is more like to be the RB. Based on the analysis you just laid out, it would be smarter for the RB to counterclaim me, force this standoff, follow your plan, and at worst get the non-RB lynched.

It could even be you, in fact!

This explains the belated counterclaiming of me, really.

It* being the scum in the Cala/mcmc/WW set. Good strategy for your RB to survive, it it's Space.

[Robz888]

Calamitas, I definitely see what you're saying: it IS better to do your plan, if the RB is in the you/mcmc/WW set, rather than the me/Space set. But given that, there was nothing to prevent the scum team from doing it the other way around. And there's a 50% chance you, the person making this claim, are on the scum team anyway!

[Robz888]

You have to see the problem here: you are as likely to be scum as anyone else, and the theory you're advancing is easily exploited in any case, and especially in the case that you are scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

[Calamitas]

Having me a as scum is probably the only possibility where scum might assume a no-lynch as the likeliest scenario (fron your perspective that should have a 1/3 probability).

But either way, even if one of robz/SA is the rb, our chances don't get worse. In case we hit the scum in the other group and that one isn't the rb, the game won't be lost but would result in a final LyLo with robz and SA. Same lynchpool, just later with more info.

[Calamitas]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

We will have that LyLo at some point anyways. Even if we lynch the scum out of robz/SA there is one left to pick off.

[Robz888]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

OMG SO scummy. Please, someone, tell me you see this.

I actually think Calamitas's plan makes sense, except it is ridiculously easy to game if Calamitas is on the scum team (and even if he's not, really).

[Calamitas]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

OMG SO scummy. Please, someone, tell me you see this.

I actually think Calamitas's plan makes sense, except it is ridiculously easy to game if Calamitas is on the scum team (and even if he's not, really).

It isn't gameable, just the advantage would be gone. In case the rb is in {robz, SA} lynching out of that group is as good as no-lynch and otherwise no-lynch is strictly better.

[Robz888]

Having me a as scum is probably the only possibility where scum might assume a no-lynch as the likeliest scenario (fron your perspective that should have a 1/3 probability).

But either way, even if one of robz/SA is the rb, our chances don't get worse. In case we hit the scum in the other group and that one isn't the rb, the game won't be lost but would result in a final LyLo with robz and SA. Same lynchpool, just later with more info.

Well right, but it's WIFOM. If you say we should do it this way because the RB is in the other set, that means we should do it the other way, if you're scum, because the RB is not in the other set!

[SpaceAnemone]

We will have that LyLo at some point anyways. Even if we lynch the scum out of robz/SA there is one left to pick off.

Not necessarily! If we lynch the scum in your three-person set, and that's the RB (which we mostly agree is the most likely outcome), then Robz and I just kill each other in the night and town wins outright with no lylo.

I agree that lynching between me and Robz looks risky to you at the moment, but I'd really like you, WW and mcmc to consider targeter re-reads on each other.

And with that suggestion, I should really go to sleep.

[SpaceAnemone]

Huh.. I'm not getting PPE messages just now, sorry. Anyway, good night!

[Robz888]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

OMG SO scummy. Please, someone, tell me you see this.

I actually think Calamitas's plan makes sense, except it is ridiculously easy to game if Calamitas is on the scum team (and even if he's not, really).

It isn't gameable, just the advantage would be gone. In case the rb is in {robz, SA} lynching out of that group is as good as no-lynch and otherwise no-lynch is strictly better.

You're saying it's better to lynch in the set that has the RB. In the case that you are scum, the RB is absolutely Space. If you're not scum, the RB could still be Space, because scum could have anticipated this situation.

[Robz888]

This theorizing is actually making me dizzy.

Let's say it's Space as the Goon and mcmc as the RB (the scenario you think is likely, yes Calamitas?). If we No Lynch, scum blocks me and shoots you, let's say. Then let's say we (teamlyle, WW, and me) lynch mcmc correctly, he flips scum RB. We go to night and I shoot Space and we win. Yay!

So to prevent that, instead, scum blocks and shoots me. Space is confirmed scum tomorrow, you lynch Space, mcmc kills you or WW, and teamlyle gets to decide between the survivor and mcmc. Teamlyle, who can't ask questions or do anything except vote.

Isn't that worse?

[Robz888]

Yeah, that's way, way, way worse. I'm not afraid of leaving it up to teamlyle (as Space seems to be), but teamlyle will have a harder time making the decision than anyone else, given that he can't ask questions.

[Calamitas]

Oh dang, missed that the vig would be able to shoot in case we lynch the rb out of {robz, SA}. So yeah, if we believe {SA, robz} is more likely to contain the rb we should lynch there today. But I still don't think that is the case since it is quite an assumption for scum that
1. Someone drafts this plan
2. Convinces everyone else to follow through
But anyways, going to bed now. Too late for me to think clear enough for this.

[Robz888]

Oh dang, missed that the vig would be able to shoot in case we lynch the rb out of {robz, SA}. So yeah, if we believe {SA, robz} is more likely to contain the rb we should lynch there today. But I still don't think that is the case since it is quite an assumption for scum that
1. Someone drafts this plan
2. Convinces everyone else to follow through
But anyways, going to bed now. Too late for me to think clear enough for this.

Wait, but even if it's the other way, the way you think, did you read my post? Scum could just not do that and leave it up to a severely disadvantaged teamlyle.

[Calamitas]

Yeah, that's way, way, way worse. I'm not afraid of leaving it up to teamlyle (as Space seems to be), but teamlyle will have a harder time making the decision than anyone else, given that he can't ask questions.

Teamlyle will make the final call in any given scenario. Assume we lynch SA correctly today, in that case we will still have a LyLo with teamlyle giving the final call. (Except SA flips rb and you hit the final scum).

[mcmcsalot]

Now again, but a bit more concise now:
Currently it is public knowledge that {Sa, robz} contains exactly one scum and exactly one vig.
Additionally it is known that {Calamitas, mcm, WW} contains 1 scum.
The scum in the latter group is overwhelmingly more likely to be the rb since scum wouldn't want to give the vig a shot if the fakeclaimed vig gets lynched today.
In case of a no-lynch, scum must reduce either playerpool.

There are two options then:
- The vig gets killed.
- Someone out of {Cala, mcm, WW} gets killed

In case of the first scenario we know the other one to be scum. We lynch him and are faced with a 2 player lynchpool.

In case of the second scenario, we lynch out of the two survivors out of {mcm, Cala, WW}. We have a 50% chance of hitting scum there. In case we hit the real scum, we have most likely hit the rb. In that case, if scum doesn't possess the switch anymore, the surviving vig kills the last scum (that one is confirmed) and the game is won.

yea i think this is smart but i need to run some other scenario's in my head. The only thing i can think of that gives me pause is that we almost currently have a 50% chance of winning. What you are saying get us to a 50% lynchpool in the first scenario and the second scenario. We currently have a 50% lynchpool between robz and space and if we get it right(we have to get a 50% guess right eventually) then scum will kill the townie of robz/space which we didn't lynch and we are left with me/cal/wither and while each townie will have a 50% we would need those townies to both get it right.

So in other words if we guess now between robz/space we have to guess again tomorrow. If we no lynch, tomorrow we open in one of the two scenarios cal laid out ans only have to guess once.

however if we no lynch we are leaving the game in the hands of teamlyle to make the 50/50 vote.

Lets just for the ease of explaination pretend that the remaining scum are me and robz and play the scenarios out with names

SCENARIO A (vig gets killed)
We no lynch and robz/me kill space.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/cal/ww and cal/ww know robz is scum so they lynch him.
I night kill cal and we open the day with me/ww. We would both vote eachother and make our cases and teamlyle would make the final vote.

SCENARIO B (one of ww/cal/me gets killed)
We no lynch and robz/me kill cal.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/space/ww. We would know one of Robz/space was scum and one of me/ww is scum.
Town has to make a correct 50/50 guess now and lets say we do and town lynches me. Robz then nightkills ww who would be ic.
Day opens with Robz/space who have to make their cases and have teamlyle decide.

So both of these scenarios get us to a 50/50 where a living town and living scum have to make cases to teamlyle. This may not be the worst idea in the world though i'm not sure i love it. Though I am not fully aware if scum can roleblock and nightkill at the same time. If they can't scenario B can go differently.

SCENARIO B.2 (we lynch mafia roleblocker on Day 5)(for ease of explanation pretend I am the mafia roleblocker and robz other scum)
We no lynch and robz/me kill cal.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/space/ww. We would know one of Robz/space was scum and one of me/ww is scum.
Town has to make a correct 50/50 guess now and lets say we do and town lynches me.
Robz then nightkills ww but Space would be able to vig Robz and Town Win.

SCENARIO B.3 (we other scum on Day 5)(for ease of explanation pretend I am the mafia roleblocker and robz other scum)
We no lynch and robz/me kill cal.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/space/ww. We would know one of Robz/space was scum and one of me/ww is scum.
Town has to make a correct 50/50 guess now and lets say we do and town lynches Robz.
I then Night kill space and if I can also roleblock then we open day 6 with me/ww making cases to teamlyle for a 50/50
If I can't also roleblock then space shoots with a 50/50 guess of me/ww.
Note if Space doesn't shoot here Day 6 opens with me/ww making cases to teamlyle for a 50/50 vote.

PPE 27 I hope this isn't redundant

[Robz888]

If we lynch Space now... this will be interesting.

If I shoot scum, we win (1/3 chance).

If I shoot town (2/3) chance, it's up to teamlyle.

If I don't shoot at all, it's a more traditional MYLO.

Do you think I should definitely even shoot? There's a 2/3 chance I make things a lot worse...

[Calamitas]

Mcm, will respond tomorrow since phone posting and it being 4:26 for me. Please just don't lynch anyone up until then.

[Robz888]

*if Space is the RB. If Space isnt, it doesn't matter. Well, maybe they won't block me, because they would want me to kill town probably.

[Robz888]

Mcm, will respond tomorrow since phone posting and it being 4:26 for me. Please just don't lynch anyone up until then.

That's fine, get some sleep. This is exhausting.

[Robz888]

I thought of something else, though! If scum has the 1-night switch, can they use it to nullify teamlyle's shot? Hey mods, can scum shoot and switch in the same night? And does it work to keep a Restless Spirit rendered obsolete through the next voting period? Because then we can't afford to let it go to that. They could have the switch still, couldn't they?

[Robz888]

I thought of something else, though! If scum has the 1-night switch, can they use it to nullify teamlyle's shot? Hey mods, can scum shoot and switch in the same night? And does it work to keep a Restless Spirit rendered obsolete through the next voting period? Because then we can't afford to let it go to that. They could have the switch still, couldn't they?

teamlyle's vote**, not shot. Sorry, brain running 100 miles a minute here

[Calamitas]

If we lynch Space now... this will be interesting.

If I shoot scum, we win (1/3 chance).

If I shoot town (2/3) chance, it's up to teamlyle.

If I don't shoot at all, it's a more traditional MYLO.

Do you think I should definitely even shoot? There's a 2/3 chance I make things a lot worse...

You definitely shoot. Definitely.
Assume you don't shoot anf you get killed. We have
{mcm, WW, Cala} surviving with teamlyle as additional vote. I think we should actually no-lynch there because the advantage of a two-player-lynchpool in comparison to a three-player-lynchpool is too big to be balanced off by more discussion.

If we are not speaking of no-lynch but off a vig shoot with an additional 1/3 chance of winning this becomes undebatable. We would have a 5/6 chance of winning if you both would use random.org for your picks, an even better one with you using your brains.

[Robz888]

Mcmc, your post was very redundant, which is good! It's basically the exact same thing I went through in my head.

I am really worried the No Lynch option could very much play into the hands of scum at worst, and at best puts the game in teamlyle's hands, which is bad for a number of reasons and maybe just like super duper bad if the switch works the way I think it does?

[Robz888]

If we lynch Space now... this will be interesting.

If I shoot scum, we win (1/3 chance).

If I shoot town (2/3) chance, it's up to teamlyle.

If I don't shoot at all, it's a more traditional MYLO.

Do you think I should definitely even shoot? There's a 2/3 chance I make things a lot worse...

You definitely shoot. Definitely.
Assume you don't shoot anf you get killed. We have
{mcm, WW, Cala} surviving with teamlyle as additional vote. I think we should actually no-lynch there because the advantage of a two-player-lynchpool in comparison to a three-player-lynchpool is too big to be balanced off by more discussion.

If we are not speaking of no-lynch but off a vig shoot with an additional 1/3 chance of winning this becomes undebatable. We would have a 5/6 chance of winning if you both would use random.org for your picks, an even better one with you using your brains.

You are right about that, what about the switch? And are you trying to engineer a teamlyle ending in which you've switched him to VT and you just win?

[Calamitas]

Wow, just saw the switch part and I'm mindblown. In case the switch does actually do that, we cannot no-lynch.

[Calamitas]

unvote

[Robz888]

Yeah yeah, a likely story.

[Robz888]

People claiming the switch is used up, or are overlooking its ability to destroy town at Calamitas' preferred MYLO: Space, Calamitas

People who are scum: Space, Calamitas (?)

[Calamitas]

Yeah yeah, a likely story.

Look at the beginning of the day and tell me that again, please.

[Robz888]

Yeah yeah, a likely story.

Look at the beginning of the day and tell me that again, please.

Look where? I will look where I am told to look.

[Robz888]

Any evidence you can present that you didn't just try to put us in an absolute loss scenario, would be very welcome.

[Calamitas]

Yeah yeah, a likely story.

Look at the beginning of the day and tell me that again, please.

Look where? I will look where I am told to look.

You proposing no-lynch prior to the claim. In case the switch works that way, we could have lost right then since we wouldn't be at MyLo but at LyLo. I think it is pretty obvious that nobody did think of that possibility, not even in the teamlyle discussion on D1 this has been brought up.

[Robz888]

Yeah yeah, a likely story.

Look at the beginning of the day and tell me that again, please.

Look where? I will look where I am told to look.

You proposing no-lynch prior to the claim. In case the switch works that way, we could have lost right then since we wouldn't be at MyLo but at LyLo. I think it is pretty obvious that nobody did think of that possibility, not even in the teamlyle discussion on D1 this has been brought up.

When did I propose No lynch prior to the claim? I never proposed No Lynch.

[Calamitas]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

[mcmcsalot]

Mcmc, your post was very redundant, which is good! It's basically the exact same thing I went through in my head.

I am really worried the No Lynch option could very much play into the hands of scum at worst, and at best puts the game in teamlyle's hands, which is bad for a number of reasons and maybe just like super duper bad if the switch works the way I think it does?

Can someone explain the switch to me...

[Robz888]

Indeed, I should have IC status now. If I were scum, I would have just gone along with your plan. The best town result for your plan, the teamlyle ending, actually loses for town!

[Robz888]

Indeed, I should have IC status now. If I were scum, I would have just gone along with your plan. The best town result for your plan, the teamlyle ending, actually loses for town!

Talking to Calamitas!

[Calamitas]

Mcmc, your post was very redundant, which is good! It's basically the exact same thing I went through in my head.

I am really worried the No Lynch option could very much play into the hands of scum at worst, and at best puts the game in teamlyle's hands, which is bad for a number of reasons and maybe just like super duper bad if the switch works the way I think it does?

Can someone explain the switch to me...

Switch turns off all powers of a certain type and it might be well possible that the spirit and his vote could be turned off as well.

[Robz888]

I don't get why LaLight was killed.

Aren't we still at LyLo?

No. We're at MYLO, I think. If we mislynch, we lose.

If we don't lynch at all, we're still okay. And we should probably do that. For reasons.

I was thinking I get another night to shoot and hey maybe there's another PR, a tracker or something, wouldn't that be nice. Those were the admittedly poorly thought out "reasons."

[Robz888]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

[Robz888]

--The Mafia factional 1-night Switch vanillaises all roles in one of the above categories (I, B, P, K, V) that the mafia chooses in one night and the following day and twilight. Wildcard roles count as their respective category. This action cannot be blocked.

[Calamitas]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

[Robz888]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

[Calamitas]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

But if you are ICized by it, than pointing it out is the best and smoothest way for scum!robz to win.

[Robz888]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

But if you are ICized by it, than pointing it out is the best and smoothest way for scum!robz to win.

No it's not. NOT pointing it out is the smoothest way to win, because I win in the worst-case (for scum) scenario of teamlyle deciding at MYLO.

[Calamitas]

Either way, really should get some sleep.

[Robz888]

This is a clear scumtell, you're trying to keep my lynch open to save Space, even though it should make no sense anymore for me to be scum from your perspective. I just saved you from a blunder that would have town lose.

[Robz888]

Either way, really should get some sleep.

Okay, that's true. Sleep on it and think, I'll do the same.

[Calamitas]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

But if you are ICized by it, than pointing it out is the best and smoothest way for scum!robz to win.

No it's not. NOT pointing it out is the smoothest way to win, because I win in the worst-case (for scum) scenario of teamlyle deciding at MYLO.

Sure, if you get the no-lynch through it is all set and done. The question is whether we can be sure that scum!robz would try to get the no-lynch through instead of pointing it out. But yeah, let's continue this tomorrow.

[mcmcsalot]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

[mcmcsalot]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

[mcmcsalot]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

[mcmcsalot]

though I am leaning toward the fact that robz is town and space/cal are scum

[Robz888]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

Why would mafia not have the switch when they have the roleblocking to use for night? They can roleblock the night stuff, they can't roleblock teamlyle's vote. I don't think, right mods?

[Calamitas]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

Cannot be the case since teamlyles vote was present every day up until the day. So if the switch turns off teamlyle, we can be certain that they still hold the switch.

[Calamitas]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

Cannot be the case since teamlyles vote was present every day up until the day. So if the switch turns off teamlyle, we can be certain that they still hold the switch.

No, that is wrong as well. Scum might have chosen a different group to block.

[Robz888]

This is so insane.

[Witherweaver]

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

So you're saying that if you had been a vig, you'd have been willing to entirely give up any chance of shooting again and marked yourself for the next kill on the off-chance that there was a scum who'd make things easier for you by pretending to be another PR? And you'd have done that because it was the "done thing", without having considered how awful it was in your particular position? That just doesn't seem like plausible play from a player as strong as you.

@Calamitas, WW, mcmc and teamlyle, does Robz really seem like a person who was actually thinking like a vig in that situation to you?

The problem with your argument is, why weren't you making it before?  How is it different if he's a Vig vs. if he's a VT?

[Witherweaver]

So this is like my first game.  ADK claims Cop, Shraeye counterclaims him (the next day, frustratingly enough, after not quite lying that he wasn't a Cop but heavily implying so).  I, Voltaire, and Faust are left.  I insist that we should lynch Faust because I'm like 98% sure Volt is town, but Volt insists to lynch among the claims.  We end up lynching Shraeye and losing. 

[Witherweaver]

No lynch might make sense.  Right now there is one scum in {Robz, Space} and one scum in {Calam, McMc}.  Scum shoots from either group and there is a confirmed scum.  Then looking for partner interactions can reveal things; there are only two possibilities then.  Though if they shoot from {Calam, McMc, Me}, the confirmed scum is only to the remaining town there.  So they'd still have to convince {Robz, Space}.  In the other case, scum is public and we would end the day with Calam, McMc, Me.  That would be a loss but we have Teamlyle, so again 1v1 and whomever is left has to convince Teamlyle.

The scenarios are actually not that disimilar.  Actually it's effectively 3 person LyLo no matter how you cut it down, even today.  I guess the difference is, if we do it today we have to do it again tomorrow.   So more work, and more chances to get it wrong.

On the other hand, the team has to be one of

Calam+Robz
Calam+Space
McMc+Robz
McMc+Space

(and you switch your respective position).  So we need to see if any of those make sense, or if any can be ruled out.  There are also Eevee interactions, which like no one has really inspected. 

[mcmcsalot]

Yay witherweaver came back and made lots of sense. I posted all the wagons from earlier and made comments on them and then it kinda died due to theory talk.

I am actually getting more and more confident by the minute that robz/ww are town I think the three of us are posting with the most genuine concern and want to scumhunt while cal and space feel much more like they are in a defensive/aggressive mood.

[faust]

@Mod: How is the game going to be called if everyone is dead?

A faction wins if their win condition is met. If noone's win condition is met at the end of the game, everybody loses.

[faust]

can scum shoot and switch in the same night?

Yes.

And does it work to keep a Restless Spirit rendered obsolete through the next voting period?

Yes.

[faust]

They can roleblock the night stuff, they can't roleblock teamlyle's vote. I don't think, right mods?

Any PR may only target living players.

[Calamitas]

No lynch might make sense.  Right now there is one scum in {Robz, Space} and one scum in {Calam, McMc}.  Scum shoots from either group and there is a confirmed scum.  Then looking for partner interactions can reveal things; there are only two possibilities then.  Though if they shoot from {Calam, McMc, Me}, the confirmed scum is only to the remaining town there.  So they'd still have to convince {Robz, Space}.  In the other case, scum is public and we would end the day with Calam, McMc, Me.  That would be a loss but we have Teamlyle, so again 1v1 and whomever is left has to convince Teamlyle.

The scenarios are actually not that disimilar.  Actually it's effectively 3 person LyLo no matter how you cut it down, even today.  I guess the difference is, if we do it today we have to do it again tomorrow.   So more work, and more chances to get it wrong.

On the other hand, the team has to be one of

Calam+Robz
Calam+Space
McMc+Robz
McMc+Space

(and you switch your respective position).  So we need to see if any of those make sense, or if any can be ruled out.  There are also Eevee interactions, which like no one has really inspected.

We cannot no-lynch due to the way the switch works. We aren't at MyLo, we are at LyLo now.

[SpaceAnemone]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

Yeah, this is my clear conclusion from this exchange, and tallys with the fact that I think Robz wouldn't have come into the day PR-hunting and asking for a claim if he was sure I was the vig, so I think they disabled me last night with the switch, so Robz can push whatever he likes about the switch now.

I do agree that it's disturbing that we never noticed that tealmyle could be rendered "really dead" with the switch till Robz brought it up, though. I'd entirely missed that facet of the set-up.

[SpaceAnemone]

No lynch might make sense.  Right now there is one scum in {Robz, Space} and one scum in {Calam, McMc}.  Scum shoots from either group and there is a confirmed scum.  Then looking for partner interactions can reveal things; there are only two possibilities then.  Though if they shoot from {Calam, McMc, Me}, the confirmed scum is only to the remaining town there.  So they'd still have to convince {Robz, Space}.  In the other case, scum is public and we would end the day with Calam, McMc, Me.  That would be a loss but we have Teamlyle, so again 1v1 and whomever is left has to convince Teamlyle.

The scenarios are actually not that disimilar.  Actually it's effectively 3 person LyLo no matter how you cut it down, even today.  I guess the difference is, if we do it today we have to do it again tomorrow.   So more work, and more chances to get it wrong.

On the other hand, the team has to be one of

Calam+Robz
Calam+Space
McMc+Robz
McMc+Space

(and you switch your respective position).  So we need to see if any of those make sense, or if any can be ruled out.  There are also Eevee interactions, which like no one has really inspected.

We cannot no-lynch due to the way the switch works. We aren't at MyLo, we are at LyLo now.

I think it's a better than 50% chance that the switch has been used, but compounding that with the 50% win at the end of the no-lynch, it's clearly not worth taking the risk, so I agree with you here.

[SpaceAnemone]

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

So you're saying that if you had been a vig, you'd have been willing to entirely give up any chance of shooting again and marked yourself for the next kill on the off-chance that there was a scum who'd make things easier for you by pretending to be another PR? And you'd have done that because it was the "done thing", without having considered how awful it was in your particular position? That just doesn't seem like plausible play from a player as strong as you.

@Calamitas, WW, mcmc and teamlyle, does Robz really seem like a person who was actually thinking like a vig in that situation to you?

The problem with your argument is, why weren't you making it before?  How is it different if he's a Vig vs. if he's a VT?

If a high-level player comes out and blatantly PR-hunts for a role that only really works if I can keep it secret, you think drawing attention to myself by arguing too much against him is a viable alternative? Keeping quiet and hoping the VTs noticed something or said things to draw the attention away seemed to me to be the best course of action.

Notice how forceful Robz was about the need to claim, and the whole silly thing about getting teamlyle to vote and unvote really fast, where I was trying as gently as possible to point out that we hadn't even discussed whether it was wise to claim at all.. that's because he was scum trying to PR-hunt, and I was trying to get any other townie to cotton onto the fact it was a stupid idea.

[SpaceAnemone]

But I take your point, Calamitas: they're are non-scum reasons for you to propose No Lynch. It's just scarier in your case since you are a setup master, to have missed that scum win the teamlyle scenario.

And again, the fact that I pointed it out should IC-ize me.

It really shouldn't. If it would and you were scum, pointing it out would have been a significantly easier path to victory than trying to get the no-lynch through.

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

OMG it ICes me so completely. You are scum. If I hadn't pointed it out, we would do your thing and scum would win.

fixed

the one thing i could see here is if mafia no longer has the switch and you are mafia getting "ic'd" by pointing the switch out is a "better" route to victory.

This actually makes me feel more confident that mcmc is Robz's buddy, and that Robz and mcmc both know that the switch is gone, so that that part of the debate is all moot anyway.

[SpaceAnemone]

Ah, have to go again :-( I'll be back to address the other stuff and put together proper cases of my own from about 1pm forum time.

[Witherweaver]

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

So you're saying that if you had been a vig, you'd have been willing to entirely give up any chance of shooting again and marked yourself for the next kill on the off-chance that there was a scum who'd make things easier for you by pretending to be another PR? And you'd have done that because it was the "done thing", without having considered how awful it was in your particular position? That just doesn't seem like plausible play from a player as strong as you.

@Calamitas, WW, mcmc and teamlyle, does Robz really seem like a person who was actually thinking like a vig in that situation to you?

The problem with your argument is, why weren't you making it before?  How is it different if he's a Vig vs. if he's a VT?

If a high-level player comes out and blatantly PR-hunts for a role that only really works if I can keep it secret, you think drawing attention to myself by arguing too much against him is a viable alternative? Keeping quiet and hoping the VTs noticed something or said things to draw the attention away seemed to me to be the best course of action.

Notice how forceful Robz was about the need to claim, and the whole silly thing about getting teamlyle to vote and unvote really fast, where I was trying as gently as possible to point out that we hadn't even discussed whether it was wise to claim at all.. that's because he was scum trying to PR-hunt, and I was trying to get any other townie to cotton onto the fact it was a stupid idea.

My point is more that the Vig's existence was public knowledge.  If it was bad play for Vig!Rob to propose a massclaim, it was bad play for VT!Rob as well. 

[Witherweaver]

Space, Robz:

Who is the last scum, from most to least likely?

[Robz888]

Notice how forceful Robz was about the need to claim, and the whole silly thing about getting teamlyle to vote and unvote really fast, where I was trying as gently as possible to point out that we hadn't even discussed whether it was wise to claim at all.. that's because he was scum trying to PR-hunt, and I was trying to get any other townie to cotton onto the fact it was a stupid idea.

I thought it was massclaim time, I thought we would get more utility at this point having everything out in the open and making clear "it's this person or that person" determinations. I personally had no good guesses as to who was scum, and presumed my PR was forever gimped, so massclaim seemed right. And, as it so happens, the massclaim resulted in me getting 100% confirmation of one scum and a good guess at who the other is. So it's a success, exactly what I hoped would happen happened.

[Robz888]

Space, Robz:

Who is the last scum, from most to least likely?

Based on the exchange last night I'm leaning toward Calamitas. I'm still worried mcmc is gaming me, perhaps even setting up that earlier spate with Space, so I would say mcmc next. And then you last. I don't really know about you, you seem cautious and haven't set off any red flags, which is actually setting off flags itself. I suppose I should re-read before I give a definitive order.

[Witherweaver]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

This post is raising some alarm bells for me, but I'm going to wait a little bit to say why.

I guess alarm bells aren't red flags.  You never explained this.

[Robz888]

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

This post is raising some alarm bells for me, but I'm going to wait a little bit to say why.

I guess alarm bells aren't red flags.  You never explained this.

Emphasis added. It read to me at the time like you were hinting at your scum buddy Space to counterclaim.

[Witherweaver]

Oh... my point there was that if you're not counterclaimed, then McMc is the only one left on the wagon, and I doubted that no scum would vote for Eevee.

But now Space actually did counterclaim you, and I'm at the bottom of your scum list?

[Robz888]

Oh... my point there was that if you're not counterclaimed, then McMc is the only one left on the wagon, and I doubted that no scum would vote for Eevee.

But now Space actually did counterclaim you, and I'm at the bottom of your scum list?

Again, I think the Eevee wagon analysis is so far beyond the point and it's weird you keep bringing it up.

And you're the one trying to force me to have a scum list, I'm saying I'm really unsure.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, Robz:

Who is the last scum, from most to least likely?

I was comfortably sure it was mcmc coming into today. I was already convinced on Robz, since I spent the night doing re-reads and trying to be sure about my actions for vigging, and he's the person I was happy to shoot at in the night.

Right now, given how Calamitas has been conceding points to Robz on a few things, maybe I'm 65% mcmc, 30% Calamitas and 5% you. I mean, I'm really quite sure you're the obv!town of the bunch (besides teamlyle) at this point, so probably the game is already lost if you're the last scum.

Another interesting thing: Robz claimed to have shot at mcmc last night, which must mean he's pretty darn sure mcmc is scum, since otherwise it was perfectly sensible not to shoot in the night at all. Is he now happy to see mcmc lynched? He had a very convenient partial come-down from the mcmc-is-scum position at #1295 with "your reaction my claim gives me pause" [sic] makes me suspect that this is his very forced way of making an excuse for now not wanting to follow through and lynch his buddy.

Ah.. the forum is so super-slow that it times out and looks like it's down every other time I load a page right now :-(

[Robz888]

Another interesting thing: Robz claimed to have shot at mcmc last night, which must mean he's pretty darn sure mcmc is scum, since otherwise it was perfectly sensible not to shoot in the night at all. Is he now happy to see mcmc lynched? He had a very convenient partial come-down from the mcmc-is-scum position at #1295 with "your reaction my claim gives me pause" [sic] makes me suspect that this is his very forced way of making an excuse for now not wanting to follow through and lynch his buddy.

Ah.. the forum is so super-slow that it times out and looks like it's down every other time I load a page right now :-(

I was pretty darn sure when I did it, and now I'm not. Opinions change rapidly in the endgame, deal with it. It's scum who obsesses over the neatness of opinions.

[teamlyle]

Vote: SpaceAnemone

[Calamitas]

Vote: SpaceAnemone

unvote please

[Witherweaver]

Vote: SpaceAnemone

[Calamitas]

Vote: SpaceAnemone

In case SA isn't the scum, scum might quickhammer. There is no need for a rushed decision like that.

[SpaceAnemone]

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

So you're saying that if you had been a vig, you'd have been willing to entirely give up any chance of shooting again and marked yourself for the next kill on the off-chance that there was a scum who'd make things easier for you by pretending to be another PR? And you'd have done that because it was the "done thing", without having considered how awful it was in your particular position? That just doesn't seem like plausible play from a player as strong as you.

@Calamitas, WW, mcmc and teamlyle, does Robz really seem like a person who was actually thinking like a vig in that situation to you?

The problem with your argument is, why weren't you making it before?  How is it different if he's a Vig vs. if he's a VT?

If a high-level player comes out and blatantly PR-hunts for a role that only really works if I can keep it secret, you think drawing attention to myself by arguing too much against him is a viable alternative? Keeping quiet and hoping the VTs noticed something or said things to draw the attention away seemed to me to be the best course of action.

Notice how forceful Robz was about the need to claim, and the whole silly thing about getting teamlyle to vote and unvote really fast, where I was trying as gently as possible to point out that we hadn't even discussed whether it was wise to claim at all.. that's because he was scum trying to PR-hunt, and I was trying to get any other townie to cotton onto the fact it was a stupid idea.

My point is more that the Vig's existence was public knowledge.  If it was bad play for Vig!Rob to propose a massclaim, it was bad play for VT!Rob as well.

Ah, I probably interpreted your question entirely incorrectly there. I don't think there's any question of Robz being a VT in any of these considerations: he's conf!scum. But the thought process he's describing for why he thought a massclaim was a good idea entirely jars with what I actually felt as a genuine vig at the point he was suggesting claiming. And I argue that the reason for that is that Robz was a scum doing some PR-hunting, and not a townie who "just sort of thought it was time" for a massclaim to happen.

Does vig!Robz just say "I just thought it was time for a mass-claim", completely oblivious to the fact that it tells scum exactly who to RB and marks him for the next night's kill? And does he do that just on the off-chance that some scums would decide to claim a PR, when they could instead all just claim VT and benefit from him having outed himself anyway? There's no guarantee that anyone claiming a simple role (one that's compatible with what we know about the setup roll) is or isn't what they say they are, in spite of what Robz kept saying about how being a PR ICs someone.

So in answer to your question about whether it's specifically bad for vig!Robz and not VT!Robz, then no, it would have been bad for both, but it's exactly what scum!Robz needed to do in order to try to unearth the identity of the known vig.

[Calamitas]

I fucking knew it.

[SpaceAnemone]

Damn :-(

[Calamitas]

Fuck guys, stupdity. I had a case prepared. Damn Damn damn

[SpaceAnemone]

Well played, WW. You were the last person I'd have picked for Robz's partner!

[Calamitas]

This was insanity. Just insanity.

[SpaceAnemone]

Fuck guys, stupdity. I had a case prepared. Damn Damn damn

A case on whom, out of interest?

[Calamitas]

Fuck guys, stupdity. I had a case prepared. Damn Damn damn

A case on whom, out of interest?

On robz, I knew it

[SpaceAnemone]

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?

[Calamitas]

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?

The former. There was no need for a rushed decision like that.

[SpaceAnemone]

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?

The former. There was no need for a rushed decision like that.

Yeah, but Robz was doing very well at creating a sense of urgency and trying to fluster the town players. I really need to learn better arguing skills, because going one-on-one with him was not something I wanted to do!

Incidentally, what did you and mcmc think scum!me would have been thinking in trying to counter-claim vig rather than just pretended to be a VT?

[Calamitas]

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?

The former. There was no need for a rushed decision like that.

Yeah, but Robz was doing very well at creating a sense of urgency and trying to fluster the town players. I really need to learn better arguing skills, because going one-on-one with him was not something I wanted to do!

Incidentally, what did you and mcmc think scum!me would have been thinking in trying to counter-claim vig rather than just pretended to be a VT?

I didn't think that at the end but at first I thought that the winchance of scum increases that way (0.5 * 1/3 would have been towns with counterlaim and 2/3*1/2 without).
But the whole eevee thing doesn't make sense otherwise and neither does robz' vig play. He was way too shallow. I assume he has taken his D1 comment as chance to fakeclaim vig from the very beginning, e.g. his comment about "all turning out allright after all" was probably written in this narrative.

[Witherweaver]

I guess there's no point in not posting.  If somehow I overlooked something we lost anyway.

1-Shot Governor should be impossible as it requires an additional VV.  Vote count and vote syntax look okay.

[Witherweaver]

That was pretty unexpected and I guess just pure luck.  I was actually just playing Dominion Online and not checking forum that often.

[Calamitas]

The eevee thing was a plot, wasn't it?

[Witherweaver]

Not at all.  I have no idea what happened; I think he just mixed his claim up.

[Calamitas]

I think I have to blame myself here. Should have posted my case instead of assuming that no one act insanely in the meantime.

[Calamitas]

Not at all.  I have no idea what happened; I think he just mixed his claim up.

The heck, didn't you discuss his fakeclaim at night?

[Witherweaver]

Not at all.  I have no idea what happened; I think he just mixed his claim up.

The heck, didn't you discuss his fakeclaim at night?

You'll see; we started to talk about it, then day started and thread got locked.

[Calamitas]

And I totally screwed up this game anyways. Should have realized the switch part from the very beginning, would have changed the whole D1.

[Witherweaver]

Also I have no idea if Robz intentionally planted that Vig thing on D1.. I actually suggested he counterclaim Vig in the QT, and even said something like "if you can find one of your posts and twist it into a breadcrumb that would be so awesome" without remembering his D1 post at all.

[Calamitas]

Also I have no idea if Robz intentionally planted that Vig thing on D1.. I actually suggested he counterclaim Vig in the QT, and even said something like "if you can find one of your posts and twist it into a breadcrumb that would be so awesome" without remembering his D1 post at all.

Didn't mean that, I meant him realizing his D1 post afterwards in building on that afterwards.

[Witherweaver]

Lynching Robz would not have been terrible.. I was pretty willing to vote Robz, and may have even pushed for it (though I wasn't doing anything until I did a full reread of Robz and Space, which I was planning to start tomorrow).  I think I had the advantage in a Me, McMc, and you LyLo.

[Calamitas]

You were the rb and the switch was used up WW. Am I wrong?

[Witherweaver]

You were the rb and the switch was used up WW. Am I wrong?

We used it last night, as a hedge if LL wasn't the Vig (RB was on LL).  Which was quite fortunate, as it turned out.  Though originally we were going to kill Space.

[Calamitas]

Lynching Robz would not have been terrible.. I was pretty willing to vote Robz, and may have even pushed for it (though I wasn't doing anything until I did a full reread of Robz and Space, which I was planning to start tomorrow).  I think I had the advantage in a Me, McMc, and you LyLo.

Yeah, but still feeling stupid. My biggest hope was actually getting IC status prior to the robz lynch. Otherwise I think there is no way I wouldn't get lynched.

[Calamitas]

You were the rb and the switch was used up WW. Am I wrong?

We used it last night, as a hedge if LL wasn't the Vig (RB was on LL).  Which was quite fortunate, as it turned out.  Though originally we were going to kill Space.

But you were the rb, weren't you?

[Witherweaver]

Yeah.  Though that's not the reason why Robz did the claim instead of me.  Robz can make this kind of claim; I didn't feel like I could. 

[SpaceAnemone]

You were the rb and the switch was used up WW. Am I wrong?

We used it last night, as a hedge if LL wasn't the Vig (RB was on LL).  Which was quite fortunate, as it turned out.  Though originally we were going to kill Space.

Yeah, I was sure the switch was gone, else Robz wouldn't have been PR-hunting so obviously. I was pleasantly surprised to be alive D4 :-)

[Calamitas]

By the way, your play was amazing SA. Hadn't I screwed up so royally we might have won this.

[Witherweaver]

You were the rb and the switch was used up WW. Am I wrong?

We used it last night, as a hedge if LL wasn't the Vig (RB was on LL).  Which was quite fortunate, as it turned out.  Though originally we were going to kill Space.

Yeah, I was sure the switch was gone, else Robz wouldn't have been PR-hunting so obviously. I was pleasantly surprised to be alive D4 :-)

He didn't actually need to PR that hard.  Calamitas was likely not Vig due to how he reacted D2, else he was hiding very well.  We considered this.  McMc was almost certainly not, else he would have shot Eevee, I'm about 100% sure.  I blocked LL N2, so he was very likely the Vig.  If he wasn't, you were the most likely.

I think Robz knew you were the Vig once LL flipped VT.

I was really surprised when no one counterclaimed Robz.  I got worried McMc was doing some weird mind games.

[Calamitas]

You were the rb and the switch was used up WW. Am I wrong?

We used it last night, as a hedge if LL wasn't the Vig (RB was on LL).  Which was quite fortunate, as it turned out.  Though originally we were going to kill Space.

Yeah, I was sure the switch was gone, else Robz wouldn't have been PR-hunting so obviously. I was pleasantly surprised to be alive D4 :-)

He didn't actually need to PR that hard.  Calamitas was likely not Vig due to how he reacted D2, else he was hiding very well.  We considered this.  McMc was almost certainly not, else he would have shot Eevee, I'm about 100% sure.  I blocked LL N2, so he was very likely the Vig.  If he wasn't, you were the most likely.

I think Robz knew you were the Vig once LL flipped VT.

I was really surprised when no one counterclaimed Robz.  I got worried McMc was doing some weird mind games.

I would rather say my D1 play was telling. No way I would pushed that hard for teamlyle as vig.

[Witherweaver]

Right, yeah.

[SpaceAnemone]

By the way, your play was amazing SA. Hadn't I screwed up so royally we might have won this.

Heh, thanks :-) I can list you the main things I think I messed up on if that'll make you feel better :-P

Given how well WW was playing, I'm not sure we'd have made it anyway. Even if we'd lynched Robz based on your case, we'd have lost one of me or you in the night, and be left with the other plus WW and mcmc, with teamlyle on the side, and I'm not sure any of us would have gone for WW over the other alternative, would we?

[Calamitas]

By the way, your play was amazing SA. Hadn't I screwed up so royally we might have won this.

Heh, thanks :-) I can list you the main things I think I messed up on if that'll make you feel better :-P

Given how well WW was playing, I'm not sure we'd have made it anyway. Even if we'd lynched Robz based on your case, we'd have lost one of me or you in the night, and be left with the other plus WW and mcmc, with teamlyle on the side, and I'm not sure any of us would have gone for WW over the other alternative, would we?

Since I thought the eevee thing was an insanely deep scumplot I might have

[SpaceAnemone]

No way I would pushed that hard for teamlyle as vig.

I was kind of hoping my argument with you then would make you realise it was me. Though I did keep doubting you later on. Where did that number you quoted come from when we were discussing the chance of there being a tracker?

[SpaceAnemone]

Since I thought the eevee thing was an insanely deep scumplot I might have

Are you just continually disappointed to fine how Occam's razor works out? :-P

[Calamitas]

No way I would pushed that hard for teamlyle as vig.

I was kind of hoping my argument with you then would make you realise it was me. Though I did keep doubting you later on. Where did that number you quoted come from when we were discussing the chance of there being a tracker?

Which one do you mean? The 0.8 was a pure estimate without any simulations (was phone posting) and when doing the actual simulation I forgot the vig

[Witherweaver]

Also, I decided I was going to open the game with the "Hi guys. I'm a one-shot PGO." thing no matter what based on the talk before the game even started.  The only thing that might have given me pause is if I actually had rolled a one-shot PGO, but I probably would have done it there too.

[Calamitas]

Since I thought the eevee thing was an insanely deep scumplot I might have

Are you just continually disappointed to fine how Occam's razor works out? :-P

This is mafia and I didn't think this would be possible with eevee + {robz, SA} + {mcm, WW} as scumteam
My priors for that have been even lower than a deep plot

[Calamitas]

But isn't it actually kind of insane that no one realized the switch thing D1 when everyone discussed the teamlyle thing? It would have ended the discussion right there

[Witherweaver]

But isn't it actually kind of insane that no one realized the switch thing D1 when everyone discussed the teamlyle thing? It would have ended the discussion right there

Dude I didn't realize we even had a Switch until Night 3.  Like a handful of hours before the deadline Night 3.

[Witherweaver]

After I posted this, I got really worried someone would jump on it, and I'd have to get in a really annoying scumslip argument:

Last time I was scum with Robz (XMen, like my third game ever), he explicitly didn't NK you for exactly that reason.

Of course I meant "the most recent occurrence", but I realized it could be read as "the last time before this time".  I bet Ash would have been screaming scumslip.

[Robz888]

Yay, a win! Wow, I thought I had almost no chance of winning the Vig claim argument, but was expecting WW to be in good enough shape to win.

We made some mistakes--Eevee's claim was a blunder rather than a ploy, and we didn't think about the switch until late, and we didn't even discuss saving it for teamlyle. But our scumplay was strong enough we weren't getting POEd.

Space, I think you definitely should have shot Eevee on Night 2. That would have put me in the hot seat on Day 3 rather than on Day 4.

Mcmc played a really strong town game all around.

[Robz888]

Love being scum. So much. Always scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, I think you definitely should have shot Eevee on Night 2. That would have put me in the hot seat on Day 3 rather than on Day 4.

I was nowhere near sure enough he was scum to risk that! I recorded in my QT that you and WW were most suspicious!

I'd decided I wasn't going to risk taking a shot because I wasn't feeling too heavily town-read and I wanted to save it for when it counted later in the game. I had been deliberately trying not to be insanely townie.. this is the first time I've even lived into D2 as a town PR! :-)

[pacovf]

I will assume anyone can post already, considering scum outed themselves.

Fun game! That "vig should shoot teamlyle" was fairly serendipitous.

On the other hand, I would have never guessed WW was scum. Why did you quick hammer JReggie when Robz was trying to get Lalight lynched?

@SA: I did not breadcrumb my role, at least not consciously.

[SpaceAnemone]

@SA: I did not breadcrumb my role, at least not consciously.

Phew, thanks for settling that one :-)

Should I have hidden a breadcrumb for myself early on, or would that not have done enough to help my counter-claim at the point I made it, if I was just accused of having set up early for a fake-claim?

[schadd]

Vote Count 4.final

Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (3): Robz888, teamlyle, Witherweaver
Not Voting (2): Calamitas, mcmcsalot

With 5 alive, it took 3 to lynch.


SpaceAnemone has been lynched! They were Sophia Kochamma (from Arundhati Roy's The God of Small Things), the Vigilante!


Mafia wins!
Congratulations to Robz888, Rodion Romanovich Raskolnikov (from Fyodor Dostoyevsky's Crime and Punishment), the Mafia Strongman; Witherweaver, Humbert Humbert (from Vladimir Nabokov's Lolita), the Mafia Roleblocker; and Eevee, Ada (from Juli Zeh's Gaming Instinct), the Mafia 2-shot Ninja!



in all likelihood faust will want to share the mod/maff qt but i will give him the option. in any case, three cheers for this setup, eh?

[pacovf]

I thought Robz's claim was more believable because of this breadcrumbs (intentional or not), and you took way too long to counterclaim. Dunno.

[pacovf]

Thanks mods!

[LaLight]

Will I ever be scum again?

[LaLight]

I mean I was a VT before and after the roll!

[pacovf]

I haven't been scum yet

[Calamitas]

I was

[Witherweaver]

Love being scum. So much. Always scum.

I hate scum so stressful

[Witherweaver]

I nominate Robz for MVP for the fake claim.

[Witherweaver]

I haven't been scum yet

Weren't you scum in that one game where you did the <b> "scumslip"?

[Witherweaver]

I will assume anyone can post already, considering scum outed themselves.

Fun game! That "vig should shoot teamlyle" was fairly serendipitous.

On the other hand, I would have never guessed WW was scum. Why did you quick hammer JReggie when Robz was trying to get Lalight lynched?

@SA: I did not breadcrumb my role, at least not consciously.

Oh, fun narrative.  I was trying to basically force  people to state positions on J Reggie before hammering him.. I think it's something I might have done as town , or at least it gives a narratibe.  I would have hammered earlier but Space and Calamity weren't online when I was asking.  And I had to go out to dinner and there wasn't activity.  When I checked back a few hours later, Space and Calamity posted opinions , and I didn't read everything but the move towards lalight looked scummy for many people, if Reggie were scum.  So town!me hammering Reggie makes sense.

Or, something like that.  I also didn't want to be forced to go back to Eevee, so I had decided earlier on that I was hammering Reggie.  Just didn't want to be "too eager".

[Witherweaver]

Why'd teamlyle vote though.  I had resigned to do a laborious reread of both Space and Robz, without knowing what I would decide in the end. (I try to be as "honest" as possible in those.). It was a big relief when I didn't have to go through all that.

[Witherweaver]

I also wasn't looking for to whatever LyLo scenario came out tomorrow.  It would be cool to actually be scum at 3-peraon LyLo once though.

[teamlyle]

Sorry town people. Please no salt 

[Witherweaver]

It's okay.

Though I am curious about what your thoughts were.

[ashersky]

I PMed faust that Robz was lying right away.  I had mcmc as his partner, though.

[pacovf]

Why did you think so?

[mcmcsalot]

Woooow!!! Man I forgot how fun mafia was. Great game played by scum and thanks so much to the mods for hosting.


Apologizes to space and cal I think at the end I had to much of a past with robz and ww and I was just finding them towny for that reason and you two felt so foreign to me, promise I'll get better at reading you once I get to know ya

I thnk I definitely wasn't going to lynch ww and I was probably going to make more arguments for robz being towny. I think even if we let the day play out we would have lynched space or me.

[Robz888]

I PMed faust that Robz was lying right away.  I had mcmc as his partner, though.

My magic don't-lynch-me hypnotism only works on people in the game. Everybody in the speccy QTs are always like "OMG Y U NO LYNCH ROBZ".

Pretty proud of my Robzfuscation this game. Felt like I should have been so dead in the water after Eevee's hari kari.

Of course, we were probably going to win anyway because WW did a great job not being associated with me.

[SpaceAnemone]

Everybody in the speccy QTs are always like "OMG Y U NO LYNCH ROBZ".

Is there a speccy for this one that we can see now? I'm also curious to read what the scums were saying! Also happy to share my QT too, though I'd better wait for faust's say-so.

[ashersky]

I think WW deserves MVP -- no offense to Robz -- for his super-duper under the radarness.

[schadd]

in the event of a robz lynch, i think ww would've won the game for town. that said, robz was incidentally the main actor in town winning and did the standoff very well (unless you count that ww hammered, lmao). that also said, it's not like ww had nothing to do with the mislynch, and town didn't really have anything to go on as far as scumteams

[schadd]

in the event of a robz lynch, i think ww would've won the game for town.

*scum ofc

[Robz888]

Mcmc and I were talking about this game on the phone. He raised the point that the Restless Spirit was arguably negative utility, even though the Vig is definitely a buff to the Restless Spirit. Agree or disagree?

Would love to know who paco jailed. The JK is pretty much the strongest town role in general, or perhaps second strongest after Cop. Obviously it didn't make any difference here, though maybe that wasn't really pacos fault.

[schadd]

Mcmc and I were talking about this game on the phone. He raised the point that the Restless Spirit was arguably negative utility, even though the Vig is definitely a buff to the Restless Spirit. Agree or disagree?

uh, yes, n=1

[pacovf]

Mcmc and I were talking about this game on the phone. He raised the point that the Restless Spirit was arguably negative utility, even though the Vig is definitely a buff to the Restless Spirit. Agree or disagree?

Would love to know who paco jailed. The JK is pretty much the strongest town role in general, or perhaps second strongest after Cop. Obviously it didn't make any difference here, though maybe that wasn't really pacos fault.

N1 I JK'd Lalight, N2 I JK'd SA (nearly JK'd WW instead).

JK is strong, but hard to use properly when scum has a strongman and a roleblocker... Cop is useful right away.

I considered playing less towny to try and survive until later on, but D1 and D2 were fairly horrible for town, up until the point when mcmc came back, so I just thought pushing the game forward and forcing interactions was more pro-town than having a Jailkeeper.

[pacovf]

The game is basically over, so might as well share my QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/JBbvsDFDPMU7g (there's a link to the speccy at the end)

[Witherweaver]

Robz, did you actually intentionally plant the Vig 'breadcrumb', or did you realize it later?

I can link the scum QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/AFJVZSFmUhq95

[faust]

Here are the QTs (excluding individual QTs):

Mod

Mafia

Speccy 1
Speccy 2

[gkrieg13]

Wow I didn't know I was so feared by the mafia!  Thanks guys.

[Robz888]

Robz, did you actually intentionally plant the Vig 'breadcrumb', or did you realize it later?

I can link the scum QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/AFJVZSFmUhq95

Not intentionally, but the second I wrote about it, I realized people might think that... and that would be good.

[silverspawn]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

[schadd]

aw beans

[SpaceAnemone]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

I'm really sorry for my contribution to killing you so early :-( I was trying to be a bit scummy-looking so that I could survive till later in the game (both times I was a town PR previously, I was the first NK), but I didn't quite mean to be that anti-town! :-(

[silverspawn]

I'm really sorry for my contribution to killing you so early :-(

Weren't you defending me later?

Even if there was something like blame for lynching me, you'd be the last one to have it!

[Awaclus]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

But who will I vote for if you're not there?

[pacovf]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

Sorry to hear this. I actually enjoy playing with you, I like the way you think. The D1 of this game was just bad.

[ashersky]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

Welcome to true veteranny-ness.  We call ourselves the Yuma Club.

[Witherweaver]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

Welcome to true veteranny-ness.  We call ourselves the Yuma Club.

$$$

[mcmcsalot]

Apologies everyone.

I think I have some potentially permanent issues with mafia, I don't feel the same way as I used to about committing myself to things that take energy and thought but are purely for enjoyment. I didn't even really sign up for this because I wanted to, I signed up because I am someone who plays mafia so it seemed like an obvious thing to do again once I had the time. Right now I have an easier time seeing myself modding.

Welcome to true veteranny-ness.  We call ourselves the Yuma Club.

#truth

I think there is a happy-medium of emotional investment vs. relaxation and enjoyment but with how wonderful a community this is I think it's really hard not to become too invested and games end up really really draining you. Don't feel bad about this one, I thought you were super towny and your day 1 lynch wouldn't have happened if I wasn't in the middle of boarding a cruise ship and drinking like my life depended on it during day 1 deadline

[pacovf]

BTW, shot out to SA and mcmc, who played an awesome town game.